Sabathia, Teixeira or Ramirez?
by wilriv21 on Dec 3, 2008 2:32 PM PST
179 comments
The Giants are looking into pursuing one of the big three -- CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez -- but it is believed they haven't decided which one to target yet.
CC Sabathia: 28 yr old Cy Young award winning workhorse in his prime who is good enough to make Tim Lincecum the #2 starter on the staff. Sabathia wants to pitch on the west coast and prefers a NL team so he can bat. How about 6yrs/$125M?
Mark Teixeira : Soon to be 29 yr old switch-hitting, Gold Glove winning all around player with power to place into the middle of the line-up for seasons to come. Have read Tex prefers to play on the east coast. Maybe offer 8yrs/$153M?
Manny Ramirez: Or one of the best RHH in the game who could change the line-up similar to how Barry Bonds changed the Giants line-up. Ramirez will take the highest offer. Offer 3yrs/$57M?
Pitching Sabathia, Lincecum and Cain with Wilson to close could sweep many series. Tex in the middle of the line-up and with GG defense immediately improves the Giants. Manny is Manny.
Which player should the Giants target? What contract years/monies should they offer?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Teixeira, hands down. Though the fact that he might not have any interest in playing for the Giants would put a damper on it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling he’ll be signing with Boston.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this makes the most sense
i now believe no elite FA slugger will ever sign to play in SF
try to get burrell here (local boy) and convert him to 1b
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 3, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And forget CC
Sign Randy Johnson after getting Burrell, and then my offseason dream has been fulfilled!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
by hairball on Dec 3, 2008 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 3, 2008 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm really confused by this
sure, maybe hitters would prefer to play in parks that favor offense, but come on… 9 times out of 10, at least, big league free agents go where the money is. if the giants offer the most cash, Teixeira won’t worry about where the fences are.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Dec 3, 2008 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not true
From most accounts the Giants offered more for Carlos Lee and he said no, because he wanted to play in Texas. I seem to remember a similar thing happening to Juan Gonzalez. He resigned with the Rangers because he didn’t have to pay state taxes there.
Zito claims (though I don’t believe him) that he got a larger offer but signed with the Giants because he wanted to stay in the Bay Area….
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No..
Carlos Lee went to Texas because he has a ranch there.
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by WalrusMan on Dec 3, 2008 8:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Umm yeah no shit. So he wanted to play in Texas no? Because he lived there.
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Easy big fella.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Dec 3, 2008 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tax situation helped too, I believe.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
by thehavenot on Dec 3, 2008 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cost of living adjustments from SF to Houston are HUGE, like 50% huge and that doesn’t include state and local taxes.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 3, 2008 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you aren't talking about taxes
I don’t think the cost of living in SF v. Houston is all that important to a guy making 8 figures a year.
When your making 1.6m a month, I don’t think the grocery bill or the mortage are really huge factors in where you live.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 8:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, a lot of really rich people are really frugal too, or at least really worried with keeping as much of their money as they can
by Mrbasepaul on Dec 4, 2008 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s because what i said was pretty stupid/confusing
sorry about that one
don’t know what i was thinking.
still, as much as i want tex, i don’t think he’s coming here
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 3, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not ManRam
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Dec 3, 2008 2:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn anyone?
Most say he’s going to go for 3/$36 million. Stick him at first base and call it an offseason.
Giants Cove: You'll be a better person for reading
by Chulk on Dec 3, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
if that’s all it takes for Dunn, I would do that in a second.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn turns into Edgardo Alfonzo when he plays here. Pass.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 3, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hi, my name is sample size
I have issues with your statement
by Viliphied on Dec 3, 2008 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But it isn't just
100 PAs, or whatever the number is. It is a ramdom sampling of his entire career. Thus it eliminates mitigating factors like a slump or injury.
AT&T will eat Dunn up, and I’d be willing to bet on it.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
state your criteria
I’d be more than willing to throw some cash monies on this if Dunn signs with the Giants
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by iamawesomer on Dec 3, 2008 3:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of statistics
are done by gathering data by random sampling. You get a truer picture by the 100 PAs spread out over Dunn’s entire than you do by 100 consecutive PAs. As I stated previously, it eliminates the mitigating factors that do occur over 100 consecutive PAs. Over a period of 7 years Dunn’s numbers cannot be dismissed as being influenced by an injury, or something else. He has never hit well at AT&T, and I think it is safe to say he never will.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1) Random sampling doesn’t just work no matter what… sample size is still controlling. Would eighty randomly sampled at-bats accurately tell us how Dunn would hit in AT&T? Would sixty? Forty? Twenty? Ten?
2) These 100 at-bats aren’t randomly sampled. They’re randomly sampled sets of ten at-bats. They’re not very random at all, matter of fact.
Park factors may lead you to believe that Dunn would struggle here. 100 not-that-random randomly sampled at bats, out of a 3900-at-bat career, should not. That data is meaningless.
by onlxn on Dec 3, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ask yourself
why statistics from a small sample size, especially baseball stats, can be misleading. It is because for a 100 PAs in the month of June, for example, they can be influenced by one of many factors, such as a slump. Even an entire season’s stats can be misleading because of an injury. The 100 PAs for Dunn at AT&T are spread out over 7 years, and occur in different months throughout the season, varying season to season. Clearly he could not have been injured in the majority of those PAs, nor can they be unduly influenced by a slump, slow star, or whatever. The career PAs for Dunn at AT&T are clearly not useless.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 4:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that's systematic error
not random error. You may (emphasis) MAY be right that the error associated with 100 PAs scattered is smaller than 100 consectuve ABs, but there is still quite large RANDOM error.
Try taking a career and pulling 100 random PAs from it. Do this 10 times. You will get a big variance.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 4:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not so sure
The control in the Dunn stats is that they are all taken from AT&T. Also they aren’t entirely random because they each cover spans of 2, 3, and 4 game series. Do you really think that if you took 100 PAs from random series played at AT&T from Barry Bonds career, that they would be in great variance from his career total numbers? I really doubt that.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They absolutely would. Of course they would. And are you now claiming that the lack of randomness in Dunn’s AT&T numbers is a positive? The fact that 15% of them could’ve come in a four-game road trip when he was slumping is now a positive? Isn’t that the kind of thing you were claiming these numbers would filter out?
Dunn’s logged over 80 plate appearances in Petco, almost as many as in AT&T… his career numbers there are .318/.451/.682. Are you suggesting that if Adam Dunn moved to the most extreme pitcher’s park in the game, that he would become the third-greatest hitter in the history of baseball? Do you really want to stand by numbers like these?
There is no value in Adam Dunn’s career numbers at AT&T. Zero.
by onlxn on Dec 3, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As I said previously
I am not sure, meaning I’m not sure how much value there is in Dunn’s AT&T numbers, though my gut feeling is there is some. One thing I am sure of is that neither you, nor anyone else, can know for sure that they aren’t of any value whatsoever.
Most series are 3 game series so they would provide the most data. But if there is a 15% chance that he came to AT&T slumping in a 4 game series there is the same chance that he was in a hot streak.
In comparing AT&T to Petco and then calling it the most extreme pitcher’s park you are talking in useless generalities. That may be true for all hitters, but AT&T is 19 feet deeper in the right field alley than Petco, making Petco a better park than AT&T for LHHs.
I am going to do the experiment when I can find the time. What really bothers me though is that apparently no has done the experiment, and yet I have people telling me categorically what the outcome will be.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 4, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is absolutely ridiculous. Do you really want to throw out 98 percent of Dunn’s at-bats? How is using 2 percent of his career at-bats more predictive than using 100 percent?
by Dan from NM on Dec 3, 2008 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
do the experiment
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
making decisions on 100 PA. Pass.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
those 100 PA are a fine place to start.
then when you weigh in the fact that empirically ATT “eats up” LHBs, it become less statistically specious.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 3, 2008 3:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn’t mean the Giants should never sign another LHH. We do play 82 games outside of AT&T
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
But Dunn is exactly the type of LHH that the Giants should avoid. A fly ball hitter like him and I would expect to see lots of magestic outs. He maybe good for sac flies, but I want more out of any big bopper sign.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
82?
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Dec 3, 2008 7:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
shut up. :(
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 7:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, they’re not. If you flipped a coin 100 times, and it came up heads 52 times, would you go around insisting that you have a 52 percent chance of getting heads in the future? Of course not. You just haven’t flipped it enough to get a sample size that shows the true 50 percent chance.
There are plenty of reasons to argue against Dunn. A hundred at-bats aren’t one of ’em.
by Dan from NM on Dec 3, 2008 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look Up Dunn's HIt Charts
and you will see that most of his HRs go to right center and therefore his homeruns at AT&T will clearly be significatly reduced. You also might note that many don’t clear the fence by all the much at the much shorter balpark in Cincy.
Dunn As A Giant Is A Very Bad Idea!
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Sharksrog already looked up Dunn’s HR chart and basically every one he hit last year would have been out at Mays Field.
Speed, defense... and an almost fanatical devotion to getting picked off.
by SF Pete on Dec 3, 2008 7:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be interesting to see, but the sample-size problem means it would have no predictive value.
On average, home runs for left-handed hitters are boosted by 20% in Cincinnati and cut by 25% in San Francisco. So Dunn as a Giant would probably lose 40-50% of his home runs at home. His usual 40 hr/season would drop to 30-32.
He’d still be a good player, but hardly the answer to all our prayers.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 7:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where did you get the 25% from? First Inning has PF splits and AT&T is definitely harder on LHB’s that most parks, but I think they had it at -10%.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Dec 4, 2008 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
From a Dewan/Bill James thing. That data was 2004-06 — maybe things have shifted since then.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 8:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Using a 3-year PF IS probably better, though. Maybe split the difference and call it -15%? I dunno. It’s hard to find good PF’s sometimes.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Dec 4, 2008 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think PF's are one of the most difficult things to quantify in baseball.
That and gamerness quotient.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 9:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They do bounce up and down quite a bit. Lots and lots of variables.
The advent of the humidor at Coors alone has probably caused all NL parks to play slightly more as hitter’s parks.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Relatively?
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. The crazy numbers at Coors would drag the average level of offense up, so the pitcher’s parks seemed more extreme than they really were. Now it’s more even.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
20-25% seems high.
If you look at hit tracker, you can see how far and where each of Dunn’s HR’s went over the last several years. You can then draw a line w/ regard to the fences at ATT and see which of these would have not made it out.
It’s not perfect, but it gives you an idea. I project Dunn would fall to about 35 HR given a similar performance as last year. Basically, lose 5 HR’s to the alleys in ATT.
That turns him from a .236/.386/.513 .899 OPS player to a .226/.378/.473 .851 OPS player if you assume those 5 HR’s went for outs instead.
Still a good player – but yes, I think playing 81 games @ ATT will hurt his performance.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But there’s usually more to it than distance to the fence — wind, temperature, humidity, hitting background, etc.
The park problem doesn’t necessarily make it a bad idea to sign him, since any left-hander is going to struggle at AT&T. But since almost all of our young hitters are either lefties or switch-hitters, it seems wiser to avoid taking on another one (esp. since a very similar right-hander is available in Burrell).
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 9:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
But If he hit a ball 378 feet to right center for a HR in Cincy, it’s probably not going to be a HR @ ATT regardless of other factors.
Likewise, when I look @ Burrell and see that he hasn’t hit a single HR less than 325 ft in the last 3 years and ALL of them are in the LF bleachers, I feel pretty confident that he’s not going to lose too many of those to the warning track @ ATT.
Like I said, it’s not perfect – but I think it is valuable. If nothing else I think it would be conservative.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THIS
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 4, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But some of the HR’s would probably turn into doubles, not outs.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You think? In my head, everything Adam Dunn hits is a towering fly ball that the outfielder has plenty of time to get to if there’s not a fence in his way. Does hit tracker show this sort of thing?
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re probably right.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yes.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of, but he is generally good for 25-30 doubles a year. I think this whole all-or-nothing characterization is a little exaggerated.
by rotorueter on Dec 4, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look what I did!
I took Dunn’s HR’s from here, and AT&T’s dimensions from here , worked some MS Paint magic, and voilà:
Adam Dunn HR’s:
Adam Dunn HR’s, if he had been in AT&T:
All of his HR’s would have also been HR’s in AT&T, except for that little red bugger, which would have probably been a very long out to deep CF.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hello thar splash shots
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Dec 4, 2008 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
the wind comes off the bay and pushes the ball generally parallel to the CF wall. Which would push those LF HR hits right into RCF where they would be caught.
I count 26 HR “south” of 70 degrees by Dunn in your graph. From this page: AT&T there were only 22 HRs hit between 45-70 degrees ALL LAST YEAR there and 5 of them were hit by John Bowker!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 4, 2008 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good point, but:
- There were only 81 games played in AT&T, so you need to double the HR’s in order to make this a valid comparison. 44 HR’s still isn’t a lot, but it’s not as crazy as 22 HR’s.
- The Giants had pretty good pitching and a very weak offense, and all of the teams in their division were below average offensively (none with an OPS+ over 98) – so there was simply not much potential for HR’s to be hit in AT&T, regardless of its conditions. AT&T averaged 1.46 HR/Game, 29th in the majors, way less than much extremer pitcher parks like Dodger Stadium and the Metrodome. That has more to do with the team and the division than the park.
- Check out how far Dunn hits his HR’s – few of the ones south of 70 degrees are even close to the fences. The wind would probably hurt, but I’m guessing that it wouldn’t be enough to push most of these HR’s back.
Also, just a reminder – we only play 81 games at home. I count 8 HR’s that are relatively close to the RF wall – even if all 8 would have been pushed back in in AT&T, in reality Dunn would have only lost ~4 HR’s had he played here.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And this :
in reality Dunn would have only lost ~4 HR’s had he played here.
Is surprisingly close to my estimate of 5, which results in an OPS loss of ~ .50 points.
It doesn’t make him a BAD player, it is just something to think about.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
AT&T is a pretty extreme doubles park, though. I agree with Even that Dunn probably wouldn’t benefit from that as much as most players would, but still – 3 more doubles equal about 15 points of OPS, so I’d say that he’d lost only about 35 points of OPS.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s a wierd way to compare it.
There were 3268 PAs by opponents @ AT&T and 75 HR. Dunn had 639 PAs and hit 40 HR. 26 as we count above are in our “straight away RF” for Dunn, and 22 for all AT&T.
What we need to compare is the number of HRs hit at 45-70 degrees at all parks… I count 1203 HR tracked between 45 and 70 in 2008. 2608 NL HR, 2270 AL HR minus 88 untracked HR…. I make it… 25% of all HR are to this location. Actually that’s LESS than 22/75 (30%)… so I’d have to say that you are probably right and it doesn’t matter. Or I miscounted.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 4, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
o_O
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Youre right, though
Now that I re-read my first point, it doesn’t make a lot of sense. It is correct, though, but that’s because of a weird fluke (unless I somehow intuitively knew that about one out of 4 HR’s were hit to RF).
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cookyman and zenbitz:
that’s killer analysis.
bien hecho.
and thanks.
I’m pursuaded that my argument from Dunn’s ATT numbers was ill-supported. Apologies to jponry and villiphied and chulk…
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 4, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if I entirely grasp what you are doing here
But it appears that you are failing to account for the tendency of some players to hit most of their HR’s in the same place.
So while 25% of all HR are in that location, that doesn’t mean that 25% of Dunn’s HR will be in that location.
Or am I missing something?
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
kinda
Dunn hits 65 % of his HRs to straight away right (duh, since he’s a LHB). What I was trying to show, before the actual numbers tripped me up is that:
1) AT&T supresses HR hit to straight away right
2) Dunn hits most of his HR to straight away right
3) therefore Dunn will be hurt WORSE than normal by AT&T.
When 1 failed, my argument fell apart. Now, if I really cared, I would split all the data again for LHB. (although 1 year platoon split HR numbers is cuttin’ it my-t-fine sample size wise)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think if we looked at say the last 3 years of HR data
For Dunn, to try and get a slightly larger sample, and overlaid the dimensions of ATT park on those we might get a better idea.
Clearly anything that didn’t make it out wouldn’t have, as well as many that are borderline. Keep in mind that hit tracker is giving us the projected landing point for these HR’s. If something was projected to hit right past the RF wall, chances are it wouldn’t make it out because of the height of the wall.
So we could potentially classify all HR’s that show up as still in play @ ATT as outs, those that are on the line as likely doubles, and those that are well past the line as likely still HR’s.
Then divide by 2, and we would have a pretty good idea of about how many of Dunn’s HR’s would be eaten up by ATT, and what we could expect his resulting slash line to look like.
Again, it doesn’t make him a BAD player – but it potentially makes him not quite as good.
FWIW, I copied Cookyman’s approach using the HR data from Rowands ’07 season, and every single HR but 1 would have been out @ ATT, too.
Something else happend there – not just the distance of the fence.
Once we have a few more years of Hit tracker data, it will be very interesting to look at HR rates and locations for various FA’s before and after playing at certain parks. It might be pretty illuminating to what park effects really are.
I wish I could get the raw data from HT, because their plots are cumbersome and annoying.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW, I copied Cookyman’s approach using the HR data from Rowands ’07 season, and every single HR but 1 would have been out @ ATT, too.
Something else happend there – not just the distance of the fence.
I wasn’t trying to project what’s going to happen, I was trying to see what would have happened. A player’s performance depends on a lot more than how far he hit his HR’s the previous year.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh sure, but
A lot of people have decried Rowand’s success in ’07 as being due to the bandbox he played in.
I was just curious, and since I had the tools…
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve enjoyed reading this colloquy, but I’d like to repeat that ballpark dimensions are only a small part of what causes park factors. Petco has a fairly short porch in left, but few people hit the ball out that way. Turner Field has generally deeper dimensions than AT&T. Coors Field has the deepest fences in the league.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the HT site
actually tracks the of wall height….
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 4, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I must say you guys are so nerdy. Fing awesome, but nerdy.
by Mrbasepaul on Dec 4, 2008 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There Are Errors In WhereYou Show The Outline Of AT&T Park
It is 404 in LCF and you show something more like 390.
It is 421 in RCF and you show something more like 410.
Finally, It is 365 to Straight Away RF and you show something more like 350.
Add these 11-15 feet back in I think you will see another 6 Home Runs disapear (2 in LCF, 2 in RCF, and 2 in Straight Away RF).
By the way I was using the hit charts in his stats on MLB.com and eyeballing in my initial evaluation since I was not aware of any specific distance data. What is your source for this distance data?
My Final comment would be that balls hit with the same force will traval further in warm and humid Cincy then they will at AT&T. I don’t know how much difference this would make but I would guess about another 10 feet which should reduce Dunn’s HR total even further.
by giantsrainman on Dec 4, 2008 5:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe humidity cuts down on the distance a ball travels rather than increasing it. This, just as much as altitude, is why Denver and Albuquerque and Salt Lake and Las Vegas are such hitter’s havens.
by Evan on Dec 4, 2008 8:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't The Lack Of Humidity In The Air That Added Distance
at Coors Field but rather it is the lack of humidity in the balls that caused their weight to drop out of spec that added distance. What the humidors in Colorado do is to make sure there is enough water content in the balls to keep the weight in spec. Balls in both SF and Cincy have not shown the need for this adjustment to keep their weights in spec and therefore this is not a factor in comparing how far balls travel at these two locations.
As I said above balls travel further in warmer and more humid air then they do in colder and dryer air. This is the factor that impacts how far ball travel in Cincy vs SF.
by giantsrainman on Dec 4, 2008 8:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think physics bear out that isn’t quite right. Humid = more saturation in the air = denser air = more resistance.
Heat does thin the air. Hot air that is not humid at a high altitude will get the most distance because there is the least resistance. Cold air that is humid at a low altitude will have the most resistance.
I’m not sure what you mean by “caused the weight to drop out of spec.” The humidor just adds weight to the ball so that 1) it takes more force to hit the same distance, and 2) suffers a greater gravitational force, which is another kind of resistance.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here Is What You Are Missing
Warm Air Rises and this resistance has a positive impact on how long the ball remains in the air. Since Humid air is as you say denser it keeps the ball in the air even longer. These two combined have a more positive impact to the length of ball flight then the negative impact you speak of.
With reagards to “caused the wieght to drop out of spec” I am refering to the storage of the balls in very dry conditions before the humidor was put into use. The balls at Coors field use to be lighter and thus travel further.
by giantsrainman on Dec 4, 2008 10:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You're wrong on this one, GRM.
Hot dry air will allow the longest flight for the same initial velocity & angle.
Cold “wet” (humid) air will be the worst.
It’s a density thing, mang.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 4, 2008 11:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This Is Not The Debate
The Debate Is Does the ball fly further in Cincy’s Hot Humid Air or in SF’s Cold and neither humid nor dry air.
And as I have said the answer is the ball will fly further in Cincy. Clearly SF will even be worse when the fog roles in and it is both humid and cold.
by giantsrainman on Dec 4, 2008 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Warm Air Rises and this resistance has a positive impact on how long the ball remains in the air. Since Humid air is as you say denser it keeps the ball in the air even longer.
I’m sorry, but in scientific terms this is nonsense. The air isn’t enough like water that we can even begin to figure bouyancy as a relevant force in the equation. Also, for hot air to rise fast enough to actually create a shred of an upward force on a baseball, you’d almost have to be talking about a baseball being hit over a sublimating pool, where the heating process is so rapid that the steam actually gusts upward.
Wind and gravity aside, the only relevant force here is resistance. And that starts and ends with density.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 5, 2008 12:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say this, but I’m lazy.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Dec 5, 2008 1:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Simply Not True
Lift is absolutely increased by having more density below then above which is what happens in warm humid environments.
by giantsrainman on Dec 5, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, the difference is completely negligible on an object the size and shape of a baseball. Even a huge airplane wing specifically designed to create and take advantage of the differences in air pressure above and below the structure needs to accelerate to some pretty ridiculous speeds for the difference to have any effect.
Granted, comparing a baseball to the wing of a jetliner is a pretty fallacious argument, but the point is that even in systems where these forces are relevant, it takes a lot of speed and a pretty specific design-based manipulation of the air-pressure to get it to make a difference. A baseball has no such velocital (made up word!) or mechanical advantage.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 5, 2008 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
GRM
Clearly, you aren’t the scientific type ;)
It’s okay, but your argument is a fallacy.
What you are trying to argue is that viscous drag will slow down how fast the ball falls.
Problem is, it also slows down how fast it goes up.
So even if it were a relevant force in the equation ( which it probably isn’t) it would a net loss.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 6, 2008 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You got problems, talk to hittracker.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 5, 2008 2:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You Are Also Choosing To Ignore
the obvious frustration Dunn showed with AT&T This year. He hit what he thought we a couple of bombs to Death Valley only to see them land in Randy Winn’s glove. He was clearly pissed and thus equally clearly beaten mentally. There is no way I see Dunn coming to play here and if he did no way I see him putting up numbers anywhere near what he has in the past.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 6:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He hit what he thought we a couple of bombs to Death Valley only to see them land in Randy Winn’s glove. He was clearly pissed and thus equally clearly beaten mentally.
Really, GRM? Really?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Dec 3, 2008 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
do you have any proof that he wasn’t? huh? huh?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 7:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your reading comprehension needs work. I said the 100-AB statistical sample isn’t enough to cast doubt on Adam Dunn but that there are other reasons to argue against him.
by Dan from NM on Dec 3, 2008 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe Dunn doesn't hit well off Giants pitchers
so if he’s on the Giants, that won’t be a problem.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 4, 2008 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this please
then trade molina for something, trade for beltre and put pablo behind the plate
ship the NL west title
by TimLincecumIsGod on Dec 3, 2008 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THAT PLUS RANDY JOHNSON was the rosterbation I’ve been doing the last few days.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
works for me, especially because sanchez would probably go in a deal for beltre
by TimLincecumIsGod on Dec 3, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
YOU ROSTERBATED TO RANDY JOHNSON!!
HA HA! /Nelson Muns
by Lars The Wanderer on Dec 3, 2008 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In Soviet Russia, Randy Johnson rosterbates to you!
by lincypoo i wuv u on Dec 4, 2008 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If this is the case
get me some Dunn and Renteria and call it an offseason. We’d be competitive in the division over the next 2-3 years and shoot ourselves in the foot with long term deals…
If only we could trade Rowand for a 5th starter.
C- Molina
1B- Dunn
2B- The Usual Suspects
SS- Renteria
3B- Sandoval
LF- Lewis
CF- Winn
RF- Nate
Rotation- Timmy, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Whoever we’d get for Rowand
Pen: Wilson, Affeldt, Howry, Romo, Hinshaw and an open competition for the others
I’d be more than happy if this happened.
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Dec 3, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oops... I pulled a Plaxico
and not shoot ourselves in the foot with long term deals…
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Dec 3, 2008 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I totally read that as Durham and Renteria, ewwww! And yes I may be dislexic (sp?).
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on Dec 3, 2008 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tex, no doubt.
But if he doesn’t want to come go for CC and the home town discount. Common sense be damned! I want that rotation.
by fwoty oz on Dec 3, 2008 2:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on Dec 3, 2008 3:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
CC
The rotation would be insane.
See which of the young position players stick and then fill in the gaps with FA’s or trade excess pitching next offseason.
by VizquelQuest on Dec 3, 2008 3:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Mutt and Jeff
Would love to see CC and Lincecum in a photo
by wilriv21 on Dec 3, 2008 6:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cain For Hanley? =)
did you guys see the comment in the linked article above where the guy says Manny had an affair with Renteria’s wife during their time in Boston…leading to Renteria’s short stay. I don’t know if that really led to his short stay, but i don’t think Renteria and Manny on our team would work…So Sabathia or Texiera it is. Since Texiera wants no part of the west coast…CC IT IS!
by newbtoob on Dec 3, 2008 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That was a Yankee fan talking out of his @ss when he was talking about Renteria and Manny’s wife.
I’ve seen Manny and his antics upclose when I lived in Boston, and I can assure you that goodwill crap he pulled in LA is BS. He’s the best RH hitter in the game, and I swear he could be better, but he only outputs 100% whenever he feels like it. Don’t need that here in SF.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve heard that story fourth-hand from a low-level Boston sportswriter. Doesn’t mean it’s true, but a lot of people in Boston believe it.
by onlxn on Dec 3, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I only trust the word of Peter Gannondorf
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
*golf clap for Zelda reference*
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil.
by BrianBokake on Dec 3, 2008 10:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
TNG had way more facepalms than I remember.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Dec 3, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I miss TNG..
Luckily I’ll be back home where I can watch it soon.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Dec 3, 2008 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I miss DS9
Luckily I have many of the seasons on DVD.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
by thehavenot on Dec 3, 2008 10:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Glue! Some one pass me the glue.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 3, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve got Kool-Aid
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Please not the Cain for _ flavor. Please!
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 3, 2008 3:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sniffing will get you trade proposals on the fly out the @ss.
Huffing will turn you into a Dodgers fan.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t fit a spray can in shirt pocket. At least i couldn’t.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 3, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
for me, kinda hard to say
cc- actually wants to play for us. his wife wants him to play for us. killer rotation. i would love to have him in uniform. but with him we’d have to be willing to accept he WILL get hurt eventually- i don’t think any professional athlete who has to accelerate forwards thousands of times a year can take that kind of weight on their knees. i think we’d probably get 2 great years, 2 good years, and 2 lost years. and we’d still be without a power threat at the plate 4 out of every 5 days.
tex- i’d love to have him, but no way in hell he chooses us. he wants to win, he wants to play on the east coast… no incentive to play for us (remember we offered more money to carlos lee and soriano as well and they turned us down to play for their home state / a contender).
manny- my third choice by preference but might make the most sense- shortest contract, will draw fans, will piss off the dodgers, will make fred lewis/winn expendable in a trade, and i saw this year how many butts he put into the seats in dodgers stadium (all over l.a. everyone had his t-shirt). we could sign manny, dunn, renteria, and the relief pitchers we already picked up for the cost of cc/tex.
winn/lewis
renteria
manny
dunn
molina
sandoval
rowand
franny
mind you, i don’t WANT to get older, i love the youth movement, but the reality is duke neukom’s already said he wants to contend in 2009 and we already have a pitcher paid like a superstar and another who deserves it.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on Dec 3, 2008 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
honestly that looks like a sweet lineup…but to speed things up i’d put in Burriss….cause 3-5 will got thrown out so many damn times…i’d put manny at 4 so that Dunn could get something to swing at and not strike out all the time.
by newbtoob on Dec 3, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tex
No doubt, assuming this exercise is purely academic, ignoring mitigating factors like who wants to play, or doesn’t want to play, for whomever in any specific geographical location.
All big name FAs are a risk. I wouldn’t want to put all the risk in the rotation because of the existing conditions there (Zito). I love ManRam as a hitter, but there is way too much baggage that comes with him. I hate how he just quit on the Red Sox in the middle of a pennant/playoff chase. Teixiera is the safest bet. Plus with Tex we would eliminate the possiblity of signing Dunn.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on Dec 3, 2008 3:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What he said.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 3, 2008 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Teix Is The Best Fit But The Least Likely To Choose To Come Here
The next best fit is CC and he is probably the most likely to choose to come here. Manny is still an elite hitter (top five alltime righhthanded hitter) but he is not a likely canidate to agree to convert to 1B and his horrible outfield defense would give up half of his considerable offensive value which makes him the least desirable to me.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
who are you and what have you done with the real GRM? :-)
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 3, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with the general consensus — Tex would be best, but CC would be good too, and seems likelier to be interested. As entertaining as Manny is, I’d rather we didn’t dance with him.
by onlxn on Dec 3, 2008 3:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Why does this bring to mind the body condom scene from a Leslie Nelson movie?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 3, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What If?
The Giants have already signed Alfeldt and Howry and are expected to sign Renteria very soon. So, what if they actually do the rumored Sanchez for Cantu trade and sign CC?
Would this not make them the favorite to win the NL West?
Would not the following be an elite NL Rotation?
Lincecum, Sabathia, Cain, Zito, Whomever
Would not the following be an above average NL Lineup?
Winn RF, Renteria SS, Lewis LF, Cantu 3B, Sandoval 1B, Molina C, Rowand CF, Burriss 2B
Would not the following be an above average NL: Bullpen?
Wilson CL, Howry RSU, Alfeldt LSU, Romo RMR, Taschner LMR, Yabu RLR, Whomever
Would not the following be an above average NL Bench?
Holm C, Frandsen 2B/SS/3B, Schierholtz OF, Roberts OF, Whomever
Not Saying I like the rumored Sanchez for Cantu trade but in this context it does not look so bad.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 3:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think the infield defense would really hurt the team.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Replace the Sanchez trade with Beltre and I’m all for that team. Then you have Posey replace Molina and Schierholtz replace Winn next year. Maybe sign Beltre to a 3 year deal to build a bridge to Angel.
by Link on Dec 3, 2008 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Sanchez for Cantu looks less bad in that context
But that same exact setup with the 5 starter being Sanchez and Pablo @ 3rd doesn’t really look any worse.
Sanches for Cantu is treading water, at best. Questionable ML player on one side of the ball for a questionable ML player on the other.
And that infield defense scares me ;(
by FairweatherFan on Dec 3, 2008 4:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks just fine, but I’m very leery of locking ourselves into Pablo at first — that completely negates his value. Better to trade him than to place him at a position where he doesn’t help.
by onlxn on Dec 3, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who Says He Is Locked In?
Molina’s contract expires after 2009 and it would be foolish to plan on Posey being ready to take over as soon as 2010.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 5:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no, I don't think that lineup is above average
It’s close to average though. Burriss way below average hitting 2B, Sandoval below average 1B. Everyone else is very close to average for their position. Molina and Renteria are probably a smidge above average offense.
If we get a 3B*, we should flip Molina for something and put Pablo at C. No brainer.
*Cantu may not qualify
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That would work
If the Giants actually had faith in Pablo being a full-time catcher. But all indications point to no.
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Read that and was both surprised and disappointed. Looks like Buster stays behind the plate.
by wilriv21 on Dec 3, 2008 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is See Sandoval's Bat As The Real Deal
Therefore I think you are way under evaluating him by calling him a below average 1B. As I see it he will be above average.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 9:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I should know better
than to argue with the rainman, but
an average NL 1B hit .359/.479. I think Sandoval can put up a .360 OBP t… if he hits .340. I don’t think he’ll hit .340. I will be pleasantly surprised if he hits .300 next year.
Zips projects him to hit .284/.313/.485… which is actually quite a bit of power. Keeping the same ISO OBP/POWER… I will call him an average 1B if he hits .306/.336/.506. I think that is a doable but rather optimisitic prediction.
Keep in mind also that a C that puts up that line is a borderline MVP candidate.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 4, 2008 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where Did You Get The .359/.479 Numbers For An Average NL 1B?
I find them very hard to believe.
by giantsrainman on Dec 4, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I figured it meant: ###/359/479
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Dec 4, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
NL 1B hit .277/.359/.479. Overall MLB 1B hit 272/.356/.463.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Dec 4, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Borderline MVP might be a little much, but he probably starts the All-Star game with that line.
by rotorueter on Dec 4, 2008 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not an above average lineup or bench
When Jorge Cantu is your cleanup hitter, it cannot be considered above average.
The bench would have one experienced bat off the bench, who is really old and really really overpaid.
However, I do like the fact that the rotation, especially without the stupid Cantu trade which isn’t probable, is top 5 in baseball.
by Mrbasepaul on Dec 4, 2008 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tex >> Ramirez since he’s much younger and plays a position of need (IOW, Tex + Winn > ManRam + Ishi)
Tex vs. CC…. for me it probably comes down to who settles for the shorter contract. Also, I think our offense would be GREATLY improved by having at least 1 guy you might wonder if you should IBB.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 4:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sign CC
Then trade Sanchez and prospects (maybe even Alderson if need be, yes this would make me sad too) for J.J. Hardy. Move him or Renteria to 3rd. Pablito can play 1st, and we can give Bengie more rest with Pablo behind the dish and put Mr. Ishikawa at 1st.
Thus you have:
C: Molina/Sandoval
1B: Sandoval/Ishikawa
2B: Frandsen/Burriss/Velez
SS: Hardy/Renteria/Burriss
3B: Renteria/Sandoval/Frandsen
LF: Lewis/Roberts
CF: Rowand/Roberts/Winn
RF: Winn/Schierholtz/Lewis
And a rotation of…
1. CC Sabathia
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Matt Cain
4. Barry Zito
5. Noah Lowry/someone else….
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 4:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sabes Asked The Brewers About Hardy And Was Told He Is Not Available
Sooooo, try again.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
everyone
is available for the right price.
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, But If The Price Is Cain It Is A Price The Giants Are Not Willing To Pay
Sooooo, try again.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 4:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If yes. I wouldn’t want to give up Cain either.
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
offense is still bad
and we give up 2 good young pitchers.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually It Would Be Above Average
Still lacking power but non the less above average.
by giantsrainman on Dec 3, 2008 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nah
not a single player is likely to be significantly above average for his position
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Dec 3, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Got to give up something
to get something. Especially something of value.
And I really have no qualms trading away Jonathan Sanchez. Especially if it means keeping Cain. Makes it even easier when Sanchez resembles a poor man’s Oliver Perez.
by Hobbes2d on Dec 3, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well what about the NL West factor?
Every team that finished ahead of the Giants lost their biggest bat this offseason. The DBacks position players put up good numbers but have shown the tendency to be very cold for stretches; the Dodgers’s young players figure to improve, but not enough to fill the production of Manny/Furcal (especially if they move Martin to 3B and leave a hole at C); the Rockies didn’t really get anyone who will be a huge factor for next season in the Holliday trade. Outside of the DBacks I wouldn’t say any other team in the division is significantly better offensively than the Giants heading into next season.
If the Giants win the division, would anyone be eagered to face a 2-headed monster of CC (even with the postseason woes) and Timmy in the playoffs?
by SeeingStars on Dec 3, 2008 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
if they knew they'd only have to beat the Giants 1-0
i imagine they’d be lining up.
by ExcuseMeSwing on Dec 4, 2008 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I accidentally voted for Manny when I meant to choose Tex. I don’t really want them to target anyone though.
by Natto on Dec 3, 2008 4:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
let’s hope Sabes does not make the same mistake
by wilriv21 on Dec 3, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t understand why there are any comments after this one. I’m pretty sure that was the end of the discussion.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 3, 2008 6:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
people haven’t learned yet.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Dec 3, 2008 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
can we get Congress to bail us out of Zito's contract?
because that’d really change a LOT of things.
by ExcuseMeSwing on Dec 4, 2008 12:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Haha
Too bad Neukom wasn’t an exec for an automaker. :(
by Hobbes2d on Dec 4, 2008 2:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
fixed!
Too bad Neukom wasn’t an exec for an automaker major bank or insurance company.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Dec 4, 2008 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
congress has continually bailed out MLB since 1922
as it is the only industry exempt from anti-trust laws.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 4, 2008 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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