Timmy open to extension

by NeifiChicken on Dec 3, 2008 11:25 AM PST Comment 38 comments

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/02/SPMI14G1HO.DTL

Previously his agent had said he preferred going year to year with arbitration. Anyone care to venture some guesses on money?

I believe as of now Lincecum has 5 control years left with the Giants, but its likely to be a super two after next season. He'll probably be looking at over 20 million in arbitration if that is the case.

So with that in mind here is what I propose, a 7-year extension worth 60 million with a club option for 15 million (with 3 million dollar buyout) bringing it to a guaranteed 63 million dollars.

The breakdown

2009: 3 million base salary, 3 million dollar signing bonus

2010: 7 million

2011: 7.5 million

2012: 8.5 million

2013: 10 million

2014: 10 million

2015: 11 million

2016: 15 million (or 3 million dollar buyout)

They can also add a1 million dollar bonus for each Cy Young victory and 250k for a finish in the top 3, which could add value to the deal.

If Lincecum goes year by year, here's how I see his money breaking down (assuming he stays at his high level of performance):

2009: 550k

2010 (super two): 4.5 million

2011: 7.5 million

2012: 10.5 million

2013: 16 million

which essentially means it looks like a 5 years, and around 35-39 million, although that assumes he stays at a high level and avoids injury.

Comparably, with a 7 year deal with a club option, we'd be buying out his first two years of free agency at about 10-12 million dollars a year, which is a real bargain in terms of dollars (and not to mention years).The Club option makes it all the more appealing since we can lock him up through his prime (32) and then let him leave when he seeks an even bigger pay day

Thoughts? Differing opinions?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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doubt it means anything

if a reporter asks him, “are you open to an extension?” what response do you think he’s going to give?

by kingofthacove on Dec 3, 2008 11:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

true

but it seems as if every great young player these days goes for the extension.

Longoria, Wright, Reyes, Cain, Haren, Webb, Peavy, Pedroia today, etc.

It’s just a matter of how much and how long

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 3, 2008 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s what she said!

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Dec 3, 2008 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

props to kitspool

"But if he's swinging at real flies, well, in that case there are two definite solutions: 1) Fresno 2) Ritalin." - howtheyscored

by CPGiant756 on Dec 3, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd give Timmy extra $

if he would sign something saying that he is not allowed to be represented Scott Boras or Jeff Moorad

Down in Front Meat!

by homerdrew415 on Dec 3, 2008 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

but that wasn’t the previous answer. that’s why it’s news.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 3, 2008 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it's not news

that’s why it’s burried in paragraph 10 of an article about video games.

by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 3, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Its pretty big news.

Check the front page of : http://www.realgmbaseball.com/

And despite not having to do with any trades or free agent signing, MLB trade rumors found it important enough to report: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ (scroll down)

Or: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/lincecum-open-t.html

by kvdp12 on Dec 3, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Trade Rumors mentioned it?!?!?!

wow, I stand corrected, this is HUGE

by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 3, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s what she said

My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman

by Goofus on Dec 3, 2008 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously

Bobby Bonilla talked some sense into him at the poker table.

Charlie Hayes ate my homework

by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Dec 3, 2008 11:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Because Bobby will call Tim for a loan

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Dec 3, 2008 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming he stays healthy, I see nothing wrong with your figures. In the $120,000,000 for pitchers days we are in now, $60,000,000 for the current best NL pitcher is chump change.

I can haz homerunz!

by jbowl on Dec 3, 2008 11:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Why would a Cy Young winner receive only $4.5 million from an arbitrator in 2010 when an MVP winner won $10 million in arbitration in 2008?

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Dec 3, 2008 11:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

good point

but I was going off of previous pitcher totals like Eric Gagne and Dontrelle Willis who were excellent young pitchers and made 4.35 and 5 million respectively in their first arbitration year

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 3, 2008 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

eric gagne

made 5M as the reigning Cy Young winner iirc

by jctGamer on Dec 3, 2008 11:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

as I said when this was posted on MLB Trade Rumors

if you actually read the article, I don’t see anything in there that indicates to me that he is any more “open” to it than he was before. Do you really think him saying:

“We’re trying to keep our options open and not commit to anything or do anything too drastic,” said Lincecum, who made $405,000 ($5,000 over the minimum) in 2008. “If it ends up working out, I mean, you don’t want to be closed off to anything now.”

is him being “open to a long-term deal?” Come on, that is just a bunch of meaningless words that you say to a reporter when you are asked a question like that. This is stupid MLBTradeRumors.com mongering. The Chronicle knew what he said about the extension was a complete non-story, that is why they burried it deep into the article and didn’t make it the headline. If he had actually said anything about being open to an extension that would have been the lead.

by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 3, 2008 11:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

as I said before

these comments might not mean much, but there are very few elite young players who forgo extensions. Ryan Howard is the only one I can think of

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Dec 3, 2008 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Factor these figures into the cost of also having CC Sabathia, because

it turns out the Giants have one key ally if they make a serious play for him: his wife.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12032008/sports/yankees/cc_still_sitting_on_yanks_offer_141989.htm

I can understand why Sabean doesn’t want to jump in too early, only to become a floor mat for Arte Moreno and Hank Steinbrenner. But even the NY media now notices that CC may not want the Yankees’ money, if only a California team would step into the battle.

Sure, he may end up with the Angels, but if CC is looking for an excuse to look away from the Yankees’ 6/$140 million offer, shouldn’t the Giants at least throw the guy a 6/$130 million offer to get into the same zip code? Plus, the Angels may not want to go way beyond that if they want to still duel the Red Sox for Tex.

Matt Cain's drinking buddy

by Buck Henry on Dec 3, 2008 11:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It’s just a feeling, but I think Timmy and the Giants are going to agree to a long-term contract extension sometime before the season starts. His value right now is sky-high, he can buy himself some serious long-term security, the economics of future free agents might be in question given the macroeconomic situation…if the Giants come close to offering him fair value, why wouldn’t he take it? The recent Longoria and Pedroia contracts might just be the wave of the future.

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Dec 3, 2008 11:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Only thing I would change is the last sentence. I think it’s the wave of now, personally, and teams have been doing it for a while (Cleveland and Oakland for instance).

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 3, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

the economics of future free agents might be in question given the macroeconomic situation…

This. It’s entirely possible given the current economic state the FA market in sports will experience significant deflation. I beleive the lack of arb offers to certain high profile FA’s is one of the first signs of this.

If the owners are about to get tight with money, going for a guaranteed contract now is a great idea.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Dec 3, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Another reason believe he may be considering signing a multi-year deal is Lincecum wants the kid gloves to come off. He wants the ball every fifth day and wants to pitch deep into ball games. Be the very best he can be.

by wilriv21 on Dec 3, 2008 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

HE’S NOT MADE OF PORCELAIN!!!!

/Ralph Barbieri

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Dec 3, 2008 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One would think

The team would be more willing to abuse him on a year to year basis however as they could bail out if he fell apart.

A multi year deal makes the team even more invested in his long term health than they already are.

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Dec 3, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Globe’s Tony Massarotti reports that Pedroia will receive a $1.5 million signing bonus and a $1.5 million salary in 2009. He will be paid $3.5 million in 2010, $5.5 million in ’11, $8 million in ’12, and $10 million in both 2013 and ’14. The club option for ’15 is for $11 million, or the Sox can buy him out for $500,000.

That’s $40.5M over 6 years or $51M over 7 years (if the option is exercised.) Timmy is worth more than Pedroia.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 3, 2008 11:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Is he ?

LIncecum WPA for ’08: 4.73.

Pedrioa: 3.29

While 1.5 wins is a big deal, Lincecum just came off a ridiculous year that he’s not likely to repeat (unfortunately). Pedroia looks to be just getting started…

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Dec 3, 2008 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

WPA?

Win Probability Added? The stat that dramatically undervalues starting pitching?

GROUGTHINK ALERT

by groug on Dec 3, 2008 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but then you have to go through the whole argument about exactly how much is a pitcher worth compared to an everyday player.

Countdown to 300+ comment hijack of this post in 3…2….1….

My plans for 2009: getting married and attending Tim Lincecum Bobblehead Day.

by Kitspool on Dec 3, 2008 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

lets_not_go_there

McC's Outstanding Newcomer '08.

by FairweatherFan on Dec 3, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lincecum just came off a ridiculous year that he’s not likely to repeat

I thought this sentence was about Pedroia.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 3, 2008 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs