I DO understand using injury potential in evaluating a player. In fact, I think it is an important consideration. But it depends on who is doing the evaluation.

Lee Mazonne or whatever his name is gave a negative report on Prior, believing him to be at serious injury risk. Most other observers felt Prior was of minimal injury risk.

I had scarcely heard of Tim prior (no pun) to the Giants’ drafting him. But when they did so, I did my research. Almost everything I learned pointed to his being a LOW injury risk. The final piece of the puzzle — which I mentioned to Sickels — was that even though Tim had yet to throw a pitch at this time two years ago, Will Carroll (author of the book Saving the Pitcher and a daily writer for Baseball Prospectus and other media) picked Tim as his franchise pitcher for the next 10 years.

For Carroll to pick a guy who hadn’t pitched above Class A seems pretty strong evidence that he, who knows a lot more about baseball injury than I, wasn’t worried about Tim’s risk of injury. I can understand Sickels’ not listening to me, whom he didn’t know from Adam. But he really should have paid attention to Will. John’s biggest worry was the heavy workload Tim shouldered in college.

Using injury potential in scouting a player appears quite important to me. But it is all in who is doing the evaluating, just as in the other facets of evaluation.

I felt and feel that Madison Bumgarner has an above-average risk of injury and apparently the Giants agreed. They changed his mechanics, and he used them early last season. But he wasn’t comfortable with them, changed back and became REALLY effective. That is my primary concern with Mad Bum, who I feel may have a VERY high ceiling.

Tim Alderson is likely a better injury risk and is the more polished of the two pitchers. But his ceiling is likely closer to Matt Cain, while Mad Bum’s might be closer to Lincecum. If Timmy Two develops his change up, he could be ready for the bigs in a hurry IMO. Mad Bum will likely take longer. But if Mad Bum remains healthy, he very likely will be the better of the two pitchers IMO. Mad Bum needs better command of his secondary pitches, but they’re better than I expected.

If my scouts told me that Lincecum was at more risk of injury than the average pitcher, I might consider looking for another scout. That said, according to John Scheurholtz in his book, scouts USUALLY differ in their opinions. John believes it is the job of the GM to sort out those opinions, analyze them, evaluate them and make a final decision.

Fortunately for the Giants, they made a great one regarding Lincecum, while some other teams fanned on a fine opportunity.