Batters and BABIP

New and improved expected BABIP for hitters. Giants hitters of note that were either over or under rated by LD% + .12 = old-xBABIP:

Old expected BABIP overrated John Bowker - .296 BABIP in 2008, .308 xBABIP , .364 old-xBABIP

Old expected BABIP underrates Fred Lewis - .365 BABIP in 2008, .336 xBABIP, .293 old-xBABIP

Aaron Rowand was one of the luckiest hitters in 2008, a scary thought - .318 BABIP in 2008, .288 xBABIP

11 months ago marcello 15 comments 1 recs |

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After writing BABIP that many times, it now looks funny/wrong to me. I thought that only happened when you said words a bunch.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 2, 2008 10:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Why isn’t it BAOBIP? Either that or BABP? Prepositional inconsistency gets me down.

by Evan on Dec 2, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Like the BAOBIP tree?

by Johnny Disaster on Dec 3, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very cool, it makes sense to include other factors that benefit a hitters BABIP. It’s nice to see that Freddie’s BABIP doesn’t take as big of a hit under this new model than the bare bones way of adding .12 to the LD rate.

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Dec 2, 2008 10:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I like the new XBABIP a lot more. I did some quick meta-analysis and using the old BABIP calculations, more batters hit closer to the previous year’s BABIP than the previous years xBABIP. Using the new xBABIP actually improves on just using last year’s BABIP for more players than not.

It still seems to consistently whiff on some players (Andruw Jones, Jason Bay) but I guess a certain amount of that is tobe expected.

The Lewis and Bowker revisions also just feel right to me.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 2, 2008 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Also, this makes Renteria seem like a much worse idea.

Old xBABIP: .344
new xBABIP: .301

2007 looks like the fluke year, not 2008.

Yikes.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 2, 2008 11:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I noticed that and I became a little more concerned about the potential signing. Although, still, if it’s just 2/18 it’s a pretty low risk move.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 2, 2008 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm... seems to make Giambi look like a pretty good signing

Is he still able to play first (putting Sandoval at 3b)?

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 2, 2008 11:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

until you notice that he ALWAYS underhits his xBABIP.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 2, 2008 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He’s also slow as molasses, which isn’t going to help him under this new xBABIP measurement.

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I take it to mean that there isn’t a speed score that can capture how slow he is.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 2, 2008 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Speed Score: Sloth covered in tacky glue

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Dec 2, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

xBABIP is dope.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Dec 2, 2008 7:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Renteria’s 2007 year was a complete outlier. Last year may have been an outlier in the other direction, but I don’t expect Renteria to hit over .290 again.

by Gregjitsu on Dec 3, 2008 11:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs