Batters and BABIP
New and improved expected BABIP for hitters. Giants hitters of note that were either over or under rated by LD% + .12 = old-xBABIP:
Old expected BABIP overrated John Bowker - .296 BABIP in 2008, .308 xBABIP , .364 old-xBABIP
Old expected BABIP underrates Fred Lewis - .365 BABIP in 2008, .336 xBABIP, .293 old-xBABIP
Aaron Rowand was one of the luckiest hitters in 2008, a scary thought - .318 BABIP in 2008, .288 xBABIP
about 3 years ago
marcello
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After writing BABIP that many times, it now looks funny/wrong to me. I thought that only happened when you said words a bunch.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Very cool, it makes sense to include other factors that benefit a hitters BABIP. It’s nice to see that Freddie’s BABIP doesn’t take as big of a hit under this new model than the bare bones way of adding .12 to the LD rate.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
I like the new XBABIP a lot more. I did some quick meta-analysis and using the old BABIP calculations, more batters hit closer to the previous year’s BABIP than the previous years xBABIP. Using the new xBABIP actually improves on just using last year’s BABIP for more players than not.
It still seems to consistently whiff on some players (Andruw Jones, Jason Bay) but I guess a certain amount of that is tobe expected.
The Lewis and Bowker revisions also just feel right to me.
Also, this makes Renteria seem like a much worse idea.
Old xBABIP: .344
new xBABIP: .301
2007 looks like the fluke year, not 2008.
Yikes.
Yeah, I noticed that and I became a little more concerned about the potential signing. Although, still, if it’s just 2/18 it’s a pretty low risk move.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Hmm... seems to make Giambi look like a pretty good signing
Is he still able to play first (putting Sandoval at 3b)?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
He’s also slow as molasses, which isn’t going to help him under this new xBABIP measurement.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
xBABIP is dope.
Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz
Cool
It goes well with my old claim that Lewis is a .330 BABIP player.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
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