Fred Lewis
by kenshin1 on Dec 18, 2008 2:41 PM PST
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PrintSo I just realized that Fred Lewis was actually, you know, good.
On cursory inspection, Lewis' .282/351/440 line with 9 home runs doesn't look that impressive. However wOBA reveals a slightly above average offensive campaign. Lewis posted a .342 wOBA versus the NL average of 331 which is good for 5 runs above average. Additionally, Lewis was one of the few left fielders in baseball who actually deserves to wear a glove. As per UZR, Lewis was worth 3.6 runs above the average outfielder in the field. Adjusting for position, Lewis was a total of -3.2 runs on defense (This may seam counter-intuitive but, remember, LF is one of the easiest positions to play in baseball). Lewis ultimately contributed a total of +1.8 runs above the average position player last season.
Given the fact that Lewis remains under team control for the foreseeable future and during that time will cost a fraction of most players, he absolutely constitutes a valuable asset.
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Is this the sibling chapter to the ‘Steve Kline is pretty okay’ club?
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 18, 2008 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
i thought it was
the parent company of the “bill van landingham is the next nolan ryan” club?
www.myspace.com/cynemamusic.com
by Cynema the Band on Dec 18, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
No, no, no
That company filed for bankruptcy protection, and is currently under the conservatorship of Barry Zito.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
Also, if you’re using FanGraphs for wOBA scores, consider using StatCorner. FanGraphs doesn’t include RBOE’s which is going to penalize a speedy player like Lewis. By StatCorner, his wOBA is .356
/deer head
Bay City Ball
And, I haven’t done his WAR lately but 1.8 seems reasonable. That’s makes him worth about $9M on the market. Developing your own players is good!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Are you talking about Batting Runs? Or a combination of both Batting runs and Defensive Runs above average into WAR?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
If you’ve got your RAA (offense + defense) then all you need to do is adjust for position, playing time, and the replacement level. Replacement level for the National League is +20 runs or +2 wins.
So, say you’ve got a shortstop is +20 runs above average. That includes both his offense and defense. All you would have to do is this:
+20 runs (offense and defense)
+7.5 runs for positional adjustment (I can find the link to Tango’s blog for the newest positional adjustments if you don’t have it)
+20 runs (this is your replacement level)
———————————————————-
47.5 runs / 10 (to convert into wins) = +4.75 WAR
Then, add in a playing time multiplier. Usually anywhere between 80-85. If you think you’re player is going to play less or more you can adjust it. The 80 comes from .8*700 PA’s, which works out to 560 PAs.
4.75*.8 = +3.8 wins above replacement. That would be your final WAR. I hope this was explained well enough. Just ask if you have any more questions.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Yeah, that looks about right. I’ve got him right under +2.2 WAR for 2008 if I remember correctly.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
I’m pretty sure they made that stuff up just to confuse us… you know, 87.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
Not according to my statistics.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 20, 2008 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
My statistics are only 100% wrong 15% of the time! 75% of the rest of the time, they’re reliably accurate!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 21, 2008 4:41 PM PST up reply actions
Or you could use BPro's
offensive comparisons to league average at a position.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Stay here , I'll go get them for you.
(runs away)
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 18, 2008 3:01 PM PST up reply actions
so
he’s good for a couple of wins above replacement? That seems kinda, I don’t know, mediocre. I guess I just don’t understand the stats very well. How many wins is someone like, I dunno, Beltran worth?
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
Here's the thing...
WJ. We’re paying a league average player next to nothing. On the free agent market, a fair contract would pay Lewis somewhere around 9 million/ year (as xanthan pointed out). In point of fact, an inferior player (Raul Ibanez) just signed an admittedly ridiculous 3 year 30 million dollar contract. Free league average players are hugely valuable because they allow your team to go out and sign stars and absorb the costs of disasters (like Zito).
Flossing a dead horse
reasonable
it just amazes me that someone who is “average” gets paid 10 million a year. Such is the state of MLB these days
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
Yeah, Lewis is a bargain and it should help offset some of Rowand’s cost if Lewis can maintain the same level of production going forward.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Plus....
Fred also wears those cool orange shades :-) With OV gone, some has to set the trends.
My adopted sons Matt Downs and Ben Copeland . Still not ranked in the McC prospect list.
Here’s a good article on the value of cheap mediocrity.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
+2 WAR is nothing to sneeze at and quite good. We can compare him to another LF, how about Adam Dunn? It’s not the perfect example because Dunn got about 100 more PA’s than Lewis did but let’s check it out anyways.
Dunn’s WAR for ‘08. I’ll be doing his totals in wins, since it’s easier to keep track of. Just remember that 10 runs equals about a win.
+2.9 wins for offense (Dunn had a wOBA of .383. League average was .333)
-1 win for defense (bUZR had him at – 2 wins below average for left fielders in defense but his true talent level is probably closer to – 1 win)
- 0.75 wins for positional adjustment
+ 2 wins for replacement level
—————————————
+3.15 Wins Above Replacement, but we also must factor in his playing time. Dunn got 651 PA’s last season, so we’ll multiply his WAR by .93 (651/700) to find his final total.
3.15 *.93 = +2.93 Wins Above Replacement.
Dunn only provided about .7 more wins than Lewis did last year. Part of that is that he had 100 PA’s on Lewis in playing time, if we bumped up Lewis’ playing time — or if he stayed healthy and played more — the gap would narrow a little. Dunn loses a good bit of value from his terrible defense.
I think if you told most people that Fred Lewis was close in performance to Adam Dunn they would think you’re crazy, but it’s actually a lot closer than you would think.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Defense is so under valued in dollars compared to what it does between the lines.
O.T. for the Stats Adept crowd. :
I know Tiger has a nice formula for the value of a stolen base (or an extra 90ft due to throwing error, smart base running, etc) depending on the amount of walks and hits being allowed. Has he worked something similar out for offensive runs above average in low scoring games?
The reason I ask is it would seem a team full of Winn’s or Lewis with good pitching advantage might not need the 10.5 runs for the win.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
I don't know that it's really undervalued
Run prevention is only half the game, and a large chunk of that is on the pitching.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Great last year, but what does the future hold?
Lewis was in fact very good last year, but the most important thing right now is what is Lewis going to do next year and beyond. I think most projections I have seen have him regressing a great deal next year. Perhaps had he stayed healthy, regression would have caught up to him then.
I still think Lewis is plenty valuable, he’s the least of our problems, but I am skeptical he’ll ever be as productive as his 08 again. I suppose if he improves he might be able to match though, and as we’ve seen, that is still good.
As long as he hovers around being an average player, I am content
regarding the defense
It was interesting to me to see that his defense was pretty good – the stats back up what I think a lot of us saw, which is that he plays pretty good defense. It’s funny to me because GF9 on giants jottings kept talking about his iron glove and how he drops a lot of easy balls. But I didn’t see that during the season.
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
Fred isn’t the best defender but he’s essentially a very speedy guy playing LF. He could see time in CF on occasion for a few teams. Also, he’s going to look better by default because the defensive stats are going to measure him against the Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and Pat Burrell’s of the world.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
from what I saw, he is prone to making some mistakes, but he makes up for it by making plays only a handful of LF’s can make
by NeifiChicken on Dec 18, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions
/bounces ball off glove into Scott’s glove
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 18, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
He's impressed with his arm too
He gunned down at least a couple runners at the plate, sometimes in epic fashion
"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays
by stealth snail on Dec 18, 2008 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
I was impressed he finally figured out what a cut off man is for. At the end of ’07 I thought that would never happen.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Perhaps he could draw a map to the cutoff man for Aaron Rowand.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
Now I didn't watch too many games last season..
But I thought his arm was around average from scouting reports, but he’s just got pinpoint accuracy. The one throw I remember seeing was when he threw a bullet to gun someone out at the plate (or was this overturned eventually, I remember a stupid play like that too) that was right on the money but bounced once or twice.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I thought his arm looked pretty good. Of course, I’d been watching BLB out in LF the last 15 years.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Yes, Lewis could throw out Sid Breem
I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
by Giant among Angels on Dec 19, 2008 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
Fred Lewis:
He’s adequate!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
I've mentioned this before and have no idea if it's actually true, but...
According to his Wikipedia article, when he played for Norwich in 2005 “it was customary for fans to shout his name while he was at bat, on deck, running in from the field or anywhere else in view. Lewis would choose the loudest fans to join him in Fred Lewis’ Pancake Breakfasts.”
"I didn't know (after seeing a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch) whether to shit or go blind." - Former Giants Outfielder Harvey Kuenn on Willie Mays
I would kill xanthan to eat pancakes with Fred!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I would kill to eat pancakes with Fred while we watched you kill xanthan to eat pancakes with Fred!
Proud adopter of Jason Jarvis: let's see YOU pass an online music course without cheating!
I would kill pancakes to eat xanthan watching fred’s pancakes Gaahl jponry!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 18, 2008 8:36 PM PST up reply actions
Damn it
I would make a Dodger fan kill himself for some waffles!
I guess I’ll settle for going to Stacks.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2008 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Chicken & Waffles > Everything
I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
by Giant among Angels on Dec 19, 2008 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
Grand Master of the Chicken and the Waffle thing!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
And not enough eating xanthan!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2008 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
Eating xanthan will give you butt pee
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2008 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Will eating butt pee give you xanthan?
/bans self
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
Huh… this is almost like asking “will eating poo give you a sandwich?”
I sincerely hope the answer is no.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
It seems to me that the two questions are exact equivalents of each other.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
Although the issue of whether or not the answer is no has yet to be resolved.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
Research is required.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
Unless it’s between two pieces of bread, then yes.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 22, 2008 8:40 AM PST up reply actions
Fred Lewis’ Pancake Breakfasts
Fred “Saint Alphonso” Lewis!
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
He stole second AND the margareen!
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 18, 2008 11:46 PM PST up reply actions
Now that is Boss. Good on Mr. Lewis.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
But boy do they sure help!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 18, 2008 8:03 PM PST up reply actions
I understand he has a high PDQ rating.
Go ahead , ask.
You know you want to.
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 18, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
I'd prefer if you bit slowly so I can savor the pain
yup
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 22, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
Like I need kenshin to tell me to like Fred Lewis.
/dismissive wanking motion
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Dec 19, 2008 12:52 AM PST reply actions
why not?
I am still waiting for you to tell me whether I can like “The Spirit”. I assume they sent out a screener since its up for the oscar of Greatest Movie Ever (save Highlander)
Flossing a dead horse
No screener, but I’ve heard ‘The Spirit’ is god-awful in a way which will re-define the term. If you’re dead-set on seeing a movie this Christmas, I’d try ‘Benjamin Button’.
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Dec 19, 2008 2:03 PM PST up reply actions
I’ve heard ‘The Spirit’ is god-awful in a way which will re-define the term.
I believe it without hesitation.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions
Seeing as he just got his second directing gig (to my zero), I’m going to go ahead and say, “no”.
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Dec 20, 2008 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
out of curiosity...
do rumors like that circulate through the community all the time? IE: X movie is godawful/awesome/redeemed by the female lead’s boobies.
Flossing a dead horse
Yes
Usually, before I even see a movie I already basically know if it’s going to be good or not from all the advance reviews/blogs/word of mouth. I, like everyone else in this town, have lots of friends who work around the industry in jobs where they get access to screenings and scripts, so often I don’t have to take some reviewer’s opinion on the matter, because I personally know people who’ve read the script/seen the movie/sucked off the producer.
Half the time, you know a movie’s bad simply because of how the studio treats it — advertising budget, release date shenanigans, number of “For Your Consideration” ads, not inviting reviewers to an advance screening, etc.
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Dec 19, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions
"CRITICS AROUND THE COUNTRY ARE RAVING..."
Because they’re paid to.
Fuck the big screen.
Fuck the little screen too.
What’s with these “book” things?
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 22, 2008 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think I’ve ever wanked dismissively. Furiously, sure, but dismissively…?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2008 7:16 AM PST up reply actions
Lewis was darn good
I thought Fred Lewis was darn good last season. But he has struck out in 25% of his at bats in his career, and I just don’t think he can keep up the .367 BABIP he posted last season.
Fred was quite good in 2008. I just don’t think he wil be quite good in 2009, although I hope I’m wrong.
His BABIP will drop some but I don’t think it’s going to crash all the way to .300. The new xBABIP measure that was posted a few weeks ago had his xBABIP in 2008 closer to .330 than .300. I think that bodes well for the future.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
The sad thing
Regress his BABIP to .330 and he’s still just a .260/.340/.410 hitter.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Yeah, that line is about what the league average hitter did in the National League last year. That’s about Fred’s upside, unless he takes a step forward next year. He’s a league average hitter with better than average defense in left field. Not an All-Star, but certainly useful.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Bin-
go.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Dec 20, 2008 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Independently
I ran some numbers independently, and came up with results that were close to yours. I ended up at .260/.330/.440/.770, which was just better than your .260/.340/.410/.750.
I’m projecting slightly fewer strikeouts and a bit more power from Fred, along with a BABIP falling back to .320.
I’m trying to give Fred every edge I can, but I just don’t see him being very likely to exceed the above numbers.
I keep thinking Fred’s power is going to bumb up a bit. He’s one of those guys that when he hits a ball hard, he makes it looks easy (but then again, I thought the same thing about Micheal Tucker).
I’m hopeful that if Fred’s avg suffers a little, it’s offset by a little more power.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Did you just call Fred Lewis "Michael Tucker" all up in heerrre?
Oh no you di’n’t!
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
Reply fail?
Actually, the comparison I keep coming back to is I think Lewis looks like he could be a LHH version of Eric Davis. Similar physiques, athleticsm and abilities. If Lewis can crank up the power a couple of notches, I think he could be a similar player.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
when ED was 25
he put up a .293/.399/.593 good enough for a 155 OPS+. I somehow think FLew is never going to approach that. His career SLG is .482, and that includes some quite bad injury years.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
Yeah, Eric Davis was a freak of nature. Lewis is solid, a little better than average, but nowhere close to Eric Davis in talent.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Yes, he did!
Yes, Fred Lewis DID put up a fabulous 156 OPS+ at age 25, nosing out Eric Davis by a point. Even more amazing is that it took Fred only 11 at bats to do so.
I agree that Fred could be similar to Eric in that both are/were black outfielders with speed. Beyond that, the comparisons are pretty much one-way. I mean, really, aside from hitting, hitting with power, fielding, throwing and running, there isn’t much Davis could do better than Fred can.
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