Snapshot Comparison Of The Giants And Dodgers
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 2:52 PM PST
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PrintThe Giants and Dodgers both have about $75M committed in 2009 to their contracted and arbitration eligable players. For the Giants the $75M is committed to 11 players (Zito, Rowand, Renteria, Winn, Roberts, Molina, Lowry, Affeldt, Howry, Cain, and Taschner) while for the Dodgers it is committed to 10 players (Jones, Schmidt, Kuroda, Pierre, Blake, Loretta, Either, Martin, Broxton, and Repko). It sure looks to me like the Giants are getting more for their $75M then the Dodgers are.
So let's now look at the pitching talent on the two 40 Man Rosters that is not yet arbitration eligable. The Giants have Lincecum, Sanchez, and perhaps Misch in the rotation while the Dodgers have Billingsley, Kershaw, and perhaps Stults and/or McDonald in theirs. The Giants have Wilson, Romo, Hinshaw, and Yabu in the bullpen while the Dodgers have Kuo, Wade, Troncoso, and Elbert in theirs. These pre arbitration pitching staffs sure look pretty even to me.
Finally let's look at the position player talent on the two 40 Man Rosters that is not yet arbitration eligable. The Giants have Lewis, Sandoval, Frandsen, and Ishikawa in the lineup while the Dodgers have Kemp, Loney, DeWitt, and Hu in theirs. On the bench the Giants have Schierholtz, Burriss, Velez, and Holm while the Dodgers have Repko, Young, Abreu, and Ardoin on theirs. These pre arbitation position player rosters sure look pretty even to me.
Overall right now I see the Giants as the slightly better team at the same cost. Further I see the Giants willingness to come close to matching the Dodgers in the money they spend from here on out as the only thing standing between the Giants and a real shot at the NL West Crown.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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It’s pretty hard for me to imagine Misch in the rotation at any point in the year.
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
This Is A Snapshot In Time And Right Now He Is The Backup Plan For Lowry
I doubt every much if the Dodgers want to see Stults in their rotation either. But right now he is the backup plan for Schmidt.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
don’t think he was mentioned by Sabes as vying for the 5th spot.
Pucetas was though…
Misch didn’t show me much last year. He did have one good start didn’t he?
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
Pucetas Not On 40 Man Roster Therefore Not Part Of What I Am Discussing
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
those Dodgers pre-arbitration hitters are a hell of a lot better than the Giants pre-arbitration hitters
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 3:02 PM PST reply actions
Really? I Like Kemp And Loney Too But I Fully Expect Sandoval And Lewis To Match Them
On the backend Frandsen and Ishikawa have a real shot at being better the DeWitt and Hu.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
I know you expect that but you are an optimisitic homer (not that there's anything wrong with that)
Kemp and Loney are quite a bit better than anybody in the Giants group (other than maybe a best case scenario for Sandoval) and they are both excellent defensive players, whereas it’s pretty unclear if Sandoval can play anywhere defensively. The Giants group actually goes a little deeper but the Dodgers have a lot more quality. The Giants would need Ishikawa, Frandsen, and Schierholtz to exceed what would be reasonably expected of them (which is possible of course) in order to make their group comparable
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
Both Loney's and Kemps Numbers Last Year Were No Better Then Lewis'
Sandoval’s numbers (admittedly small sample size) beat all three of them. I think you are showing an anti hometown (or should I say anti Sabean) bias.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 3:23 PM PST up reply actions
I am actually one of the more Pro-Sabean people around here, I just try to live in the real world. Kemp is 24 (and will be until next Sept.) and Loney will turn 25 next May, most people who don’t hate the Dodgers expect most of them to continue to get a lot better. Lewis just turned 28 last week (happy belated birthday Fred) and is unlikely to improve much on his solid (but not great) year last season. Sandoval has 320 career at bats about the A-ball level, he is very much an unknown at this point, and again he will have to play somewhere defensively (dreaming about him being an everyday 3B will not make it so).
I would bet you a lot of money that if you e-mail the Kevin Goldstein/Keith Law/John Manuel/John Sickles of the world and ask them “rank these players in order of who you would rather have: Fred Lewis, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Kemp, James Loney” every single one of them are going to have Kemp and Loney first, and most of them would tell you it’s not particularly close.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
What Do This Have To Do With What They Will Do In 2009?
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 3:45 PM PST up reply actions
Loney’s got seasons of 131 and 125 OPS+ under his belt and Kemp’s got a 125. I wouldn’t be surprised if Loney bounces back to those numbers (not as confident about Kemp), but I’d be really surprised if Lewis or Sandoval had years that good in 2009.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I Think The Pitchers Have Found Loney Hole And He Has Not Adjusted
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
And there’s no chance he ever will?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Didn't Say That
Just Said thus far he has not.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Yo , G...
Give that CAPS button a rest , ’kay?
Thank you.
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 15, 2008 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
Spelling Errors And Caps Are Just Part Of Who I Am
If I wouldn’t change for my wife I don’t see much chance that I would change for you.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
...Akward.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou...according to Baggs.
There's never any harm in..
Just trying. It shows you care for vic.
::muffled laughter::
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
"prrrb prrrb prrrb"
muffled muffler
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 15, 2008 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
I Thank You For Leaving.
er , “Leaving That.”
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 15, 2008 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
But...but...
…we hardly know each other.
Imagine if we did…
Trust me , honey , you’d change your tune.
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 15, 2008 8:32 PM PST up reply actions
Loney had a 100 AB season at 125 and a 344 AB Season at 131. Pablo had a 145 AB’s at 118.
I think Kemp is easily the most valuablle. Sandoval is pretty close to Loney with the bat, and would probly play a solid 1B so on that Loney would be slightly ahead. If Sandoval is a C (and I think he is), then he is worth considerably more. Based on watching him play it in person, I don’t think Pablo can be a 3B. Then I don’t think Lewis reallly belongs in that conversation….but hopefully he takes that big step up!
some of Kemp’s past success was based on an absurdly high BABIP. His numbers were more normal this year (at about .360).
Loney’s BABIP this year was a bit low and at about .350 during his 131 season.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Maybe, but was JP talking about positions? I thought she was just talking about hitting overall. AND I think the bigger question is will the Giants ever use Pablo behind the plate? It looks like they aren’t very comfortable with the idea.
It could turn out that wanting Pablo to catch at the major league level might be wishcasting with how the Giants might view him.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Maybe
I’m not sure how they plan to use him. I think they will get him as many AB’s as possible this year, trade Bengie at midseason or let him walk next year and let Pablo be the #1 in ’10. Of course Posey might be knocking on the big-league door at that point. There are worse things to have than two great hitting young catchers. Lord knows it worked for the Twins.
Without any inside knowledge, I think letting him play 3b is just a way to get him AB’s while we have virtually no other interesting 3b options.
Goofus Doctrine #2
I’m not sure how they plan to use him. I think they will get him as many AB’s as possible this year, trade Bengie at midseason or let him walk next year and let Pablo be the #1 in ’10. Of course Posey might be knocking on the big-league door at that point. There are worse things to have than two great hitting young catchers. Lord knows it worked for the Twins.
Without any inside knowledge, I think letting him play 3b is just a way to get him AB’s while we have virtually no other interesting 3b options.
Groom both Pablo and Buster to play both C and 3B and rotate them, perhaps depending on who’s starting. This way you could always have them both in the lineup without wearing either one of them down with too many games behind the dish.
The closest thing I can think of as a a comparison is that Gene Tenace used to split his time between C & 1B with the Padres and A’s. In the the mid 70’s he had a couple of 158 game seasons because he was able to rest his legs by playing some 1B
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Hmm..
Interesting idea. Pablo and Buster would play C and 3B. Depending on the defenses of them, you would have them behind the dish for 3/5 and 2/5 and have them really get to know those pitchers.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Exactly. The biggest advantage is that you have both bats in the lineup all (or nearly all) the time. Since both of their values are primarily in their offense, it makes sense to get as much offense as you can out of them.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Yes. I’ve been suggesting the same for a while, too. However, I saw yesterday a note that Bochy is intending to make Sandoval the 3rd (emergency) catcher this year so that he can concentrate on becoming a solid 3B.
I wanted to include a link for this, but now I can’t remember where I saw this. Anybody else catch that note?
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
Yea..
Today’s Managers wouldn’t want to try something so drastic.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I could see LaRussa doing it since he does the pitcher batting 8th thing.
I think the biggest drawback is that players would have a tough time being an all-star if they’re not identified as one position, so they might not like it.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
And Agents.
I beat they wold rasie a stink aAnd agents. I bet they wold raise a stink about hurting the payers “value”. They couldn’t say, plays the position at of near an all star level. Not as easy to find a glamor stat to beat a GM’s skull in with ( ie Saves ™ for relievers) so thus it is hurting the payers “value”.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
But,
if a player like Pablo establishes himself at two positions, I would think his value is increased. Teams with a need at C or 3B would be bidding on services when he hits free agency.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
RE: to Goofus
if he establishes himself as even adequate defensively at both C and 3B that would be phenomenal for both the Giants and him. I just think it takes a real special kind of player and athlete (like, say, Russell Martin for instance) to be able to do that. I would be very surprised and even more pleased if Pablo was able to do that.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions
I think the precedence might be a guy like Kevin Mitchell, who played a variety of positions for the Mets (even freakin’ shortstop!), although none REALLY well. His bat was so potent that the Mets simply had to get it in the lineup.
He eventually settled into an everyday left-fielder, but his value was enhanced while he was young and could play all over the place.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I would love for Pablo to be just like Kevin Mitchell in every way, including decapitating a cat. But I do hope that he stop short of beating the shit out of his dad.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Goofus you are looking at he glass and seeing it half full. I admire that.
I also think you are underestimating the powerful pull to take the easy way out. It’s part of why achieving something , anything, is never easy. I think that pull is less in pro athletes because they have already achieved some thing over 99% of the population can’t or haven’t. That even goes for the scrubs. I think odds to over come to be an generic agent is less. I hope your right and I am proven wrong here.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
I still maintain that the Giants will end up acquiring a 3B because the idea of playing Pablo at 3B everyday is so stupid and outlandish. It would be especially bad if they feel the need to put him there exclusively chasing some pink unicorn dream that he has a MLB future at 3B and it screws up his development as a catcher.
Whether or not Pablo is an adequate catcher is still very much in doubt. If and when we see that he is, then we can talk about how to handle having both he and Posey moving forward. My bet is that Pablo will solve this very easily by becoming a 1B soon.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
I’ll take that bet! One million McCoveybucks.
I’d normally agree with you, but for reason, I’ve got a good feeling about Pablo. Maybe he just seems like the kinda guy that will have fun and give it his all and just laugh off an error.
I also kinda think C and 3B require similar skills; not great footspeed but quick left/right reactions, cannon arm and a sure glove.
Pablo’s surprisingly agile for a big man, has a good arm and quick hands. He might not have great running range so charging a bunt might be a challenge, but his low center of gravity should mean he can get up and get a throw off quickly.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I think so many people under-estimate the difficulty of playing 3B. Being “surprisingly agile for a big man” is not the recipe for a good 3B. He would have no range whatsoever. I still think it’s so odd that you can take an overweight catcher and tell everybody you are going to play him at 3B and everybody’s reaction is “hey, that might work, let’s see how he does in Spring Training.” Everybody’s first reaction to this idea should be “why in the holy fuck do you think that might work?”
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
I thought most people did have that reaction. But people just want his bat in the lineup, and 3rd base is probably the best place to make that happen, since it’s a position of need, every FA we could get has serious flaws (age, defense, offense, whatever), and there’s really nobody ready to play 3rd at the major league level, probably including Rohlinger and Gillaspie.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
I think we can pretty safely include Sandoval in the group of not ready to play 3B at the major league level.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah but
as Rainman says below, I’ve seen him there and he didn’t look look like a fish on a bicycle.
Do I think he’s the second coming of Brooks Robinson? Hell no, but he didn’t look completely over-matched. Although it was a small sample size, I think it was as “holy f**k” as you say, we would have seen it in the brief audition last year.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Difference
The difference, however, is that while he could be a defensive liability, he wouldn’t be a free agent signing that costs us too much money, he’s not a trade option that costs us too much talent, and his bat has a better likelihood of translating to the majors right now. Compared to Rohlinger and Gillaspie, it might be a case of six of one, half dozen of the other.
I’m not excited about him playing third at all, or defending the decision. I’m just saying what I think the rationale is.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
Everybody’s first reaction to this idea should be "why in the holy fuck do you think that might work?"
That’s my first reaction, but there’s been enough shenanigans with me and the suggestions that others give for third base that I hold my tongue.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
BUT PABLO SANDOVAL PLAYED THIRD BASE THIS ONE TIME AT FAT CAMP!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2008 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
don't hold your tongue groug
this site needs more people telling the cold hard truths.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
My Answer Is Simple
Because I have actually watched him play 3B and I was impressed. I have not allowed any preconcieved assumptions about players of his size being able to play 3B affect my jedgement. I think the Giants have done the same and they are far better judges of this then you, me, and especially then the self proclaiming teller of “cold hard facts”.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2008 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
His efficiency within his range might be very good (though I wouldn’t call myself an expert), but I just don’t think he has very much range. Like, well below average. However, I’ll be the first to admit that I have no idea what the defensive metrics have to say about that.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
They LIke Him At 3B
But the sample size is just way to small for this to be of any real value in helping us properly judge him.
I also disagree with your opinion on his range. At 3B speed is not what determines range it is all about the first step and here I think Pablo does just fine.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2008 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
Not just first step, but also his ability to stretch out and down, including the occasional layout, his ability to go backward as well as side to side, and his ability to play a bunt. He has surprising speed and good instincts, but I’m not personally convinced by a lot of the other factors. I either need to see more of it or get some more definitive numbers on the issue or, ideally, both if I’m going to say anything more than “well… maaaybe…” (which is where I stand right now).
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2008 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
Personally, I think Pablo at 3B is the kind of creative thinking we accuse management of never doing.
I’m just disappointed that they didn’t give more time there last season.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Re: Goofus
At this point I can’t tell who you’re responding to, but I’ll say my opinion is that Sandoval’s long term value is likely much higher as a catcher, but that on this particular team he makes a damn lot of sense as a 3B for at least the short term.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2008 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
Frandsen has that covered!
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 16, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
Been there,
Done that.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
He would have no range whatsoever.
Where really at 3B do you need that much range? You never see a 3B running into the hole and diving for a ball and just reaching it. Mostly it seems to be line drives at them where you need the best reaction times. The only real range part of it is fielding bunts. That is really going to be the test.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
RE: Walrus
Where really at 3B do you need that much range?
.
I disagree for such plays as the bunt (which you mentioned), the slow chopper coming behind the mound and in front of the SS(which will require a throw from across his body or a spin move), and pop-up/bloop over right shoulder. I do believe though that turning a DP from 3rd is a easier throw than from 1b but the benefits of having him at first is for the simple reason that a majority of the time you just need to knock the ball down, whereas 3b requires a cleaner field of the ball.
I do not like the idea of “lets just put our catcher at 3rd base and see what happens” especially at the Major League level.
I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
by Giant among Angels on Dec 16, 2008 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
Well that's the thing..
RE GAA I guess (you guys need to turn on Wide Formatting I still have tabbed posts)
He’s got really good hands so any ball he reaches is probably going to be gobbled up.
If you’re talking about the foul pop up that goes toward the 3B side of the 3B/SS/LF triangle, then we lived with Snow’s slow footwork to get to those for quite a few years, I think we could live with Pablo on those. And I didn’t really think about the chopper.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
you guys need to turn on Wide Formatting I still have tabbed posts
wow, that really does work. thanks
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Welcome...
To a couple weeks after SBN unveiled the new site and we complained enough to get this! Of course I’ve still got about an inch of grey on each side.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Thanks for the tip on the Wide Format.
Him gobbling up grounders remains to be seen.
Also, He obviously has a very strong arm, but if I recall correctly he did have a few throws sail on him. Even though they were not over the 1b head, it is still definitely something to consider. Does anyone know about his accuracy from behind the plate?
I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
by Giant among Angels on Dec 17, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
it’s hard to say about his accuracy specifically, but he did throw out 44% of attempted base stealers last year so it’s probably pretty decent.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
Well his quick release/good arm definitely help out a lot with that. I wish I could find a video that shows him throwing a ball down to second. Needless to say that the 44% is very respectable.
I Don't Tolerate Intolerance!
by Giant among Angels on Dec 17, 2008 10:13 PM PST up reply actions
Tying the hot corner together
I would like to see the Giants sign Ty Wigginton. He’s a much-needed right-handed hitter, I believe he’s still 31, and he wouldn’t require the loss of any players.
Aha
Found the note about the Giants not wanting to use Pablo at C much next year. It was John Shea’s blog. I also really enjoyed Bochy’s note that he likes having Pablo in the 3 hole because “he really expands the zone.” (wow did that sentence go to a different place than I meant it to).
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
To add to xanthan's point..
Perhaps Pablo is more valuable behind the plate than Loney is at first, but then also Martin is more valuable behind the plate than Pablo is.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Martin Could Muster An .400 SLG In 2008
Therefore I am not sure I agree that he is more valuable the Sandoval. His power appears to be disappearing.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:48 PM PST up reply actions
Martin is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball and he has posted OPS+s of 106, 113, and 101 the last 3 years while catching everyday (other than the 11 games he played at 3B last year). Let’s let Sandoval prove he can be even an adequate everyday catcher before we even start mentioning him in the same sentence as Russell Martin.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
Sure he lost some power..
He but he could muster a .385 OBP last year. That’s what Ray Durham’s OBP was last year, the highest on the team who spent any amount of time with the team. That’s only excluding Gillaspie’s .429 OBP. Next best OBP was Randy Winn wht .363.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Didn't Say He Wasn't Valuable
Just saying I am not convinced he is more valuable the Sandoval.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
No, Just Has Been
Because well he has been playing at the MLB level.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
dude are you 14 years old?
If you ask 100 baseball executives who is more valuable: a 25 year old Catcher who has had 3 MLB seasons with an OPS+ of over 100, has won a Gold Glove and is generally regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, or somebody who has had 145 very good MLB at bats, was never ranked among his organizations top 30 prospects, and whose defensive position is yet to be determined. 100 of them would say give me the first one.
It is cute to say “all the guys that play for my team rule, and all the guys that play for other teams drool!” when you are in Junior High, but by the time you reach adulthood you should be able to look at things more objectively. (by the way, if you are in Jr. High, I’m sorry that I’m being mean)
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 6:57 PM PST up reply actions
Again In This Fanpost I Am Talking 2009 Only
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 7:03 PM PST up reply actions
2009 only...
I’d take Martin.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
well, then that actually makes it a lot more ridiculous.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
Wanna bet on it?
Cash monies?
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's
by iamawesomer on Dec 15, 2008 11:46 PM PST up reply actions
That’s probably true, but not so much if he plays third.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I think this very well may be true, so let’s see him catch somewhere for a full season.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
I didn't know 2009 was the rule
But the same answer applies. Going forward (beginning in 2009) Kemp and Loney are better bets. Look I hope as much as you that what we saw last year from Sandoval will be the start of years of OPSs (how do you pluralize OPS) over .840, but if I had to bet my life savings I would bet on Kemp and Loney. If you sent that same e-mail I just mentioned to a bunch of baseball experts and asked them that question pertaining only to 2009, I would still be a lot of money that every one of them pick Kemp and Loney.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
Most Of The Evidence Availabe To Date Does Not Agree
Zips does both both Marcel and BillJames do not. I am not claiming the Giants are better. I am claiming that whatever difference there may be in their likely 2009 performances is small if not very small.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
Jesus, Christ, these Marcel and Bill James projections are optimistic for Sandoval. Are you sure you didn’t make these? This is a good example of the need to take projections with a grain of salt
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, I See, You Only Consider The Ones That Agree With You
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
look any projections on Sandoval are going to be pure guesswork. How do you project a guy with 175 AA at bats, 0 AAA at bats, and 145 MLB at bats?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
The Marcel projection for Sandoval doesn’t really mean anything since it doesn’t do minor league data and I think the reliability rating on it was pretty low. Take it with a big grain of salt.
The Bill James projections suck. If you want a projection on Pablo, I think the ZiPS one is pretty decent.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
when’s PECOTA come out?
BPRO takes a lot of flak but PECOTA seems pretty good at figuring out the Giants.
zips
projects Loney to hit .295/.347/.456, i.,e better than any 2009 Giant, and he’s 25.
Kemp is a year younger and projects to hit .295/.342/.477, which is better than Loney.
Sandoval is only 22, so maybe in the long run he will be better… but he’s a long shot to EVER put up a .340 OBP.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
You’re right unless he learns plate discipline in the majors. He’s going to have to hit like .320-ish to have an OBP that high.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
The irony is
He is never going to bother to learn plate discipline if he keeps hitting .320+. Maybe if he gets “solved” and his BA drops to .275 he will think about taking a pitch. You can be sure the Giants coaching staff isn’t going to suggest it. (Until they hire BB)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
Yeah, I’m going to be very interested to see how the Giants handle/coach him. Carney doesn’t strike me as a “work the count” type of hitting coach. He seems pretty contact oriented.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
You Really Don't See Sandoval Chase Bad Pitches
He does attack many just outside the zone but he is not one to go chasing sliders breaking into the dirt. I don’t think he will ever walk much but I do believe he will be able to keep his BA high and thus keep his OBP decent too.
It would also help his power to pass on the singles to the opposite field he gets so often on pitches just outside the zone but I think this is just who he is and I am fine with that.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
you should read this great scouting report on him from Beyond the Boxscore:
Sandoval went out of the strike zone 53.8% of the time. That’s not a typo, he swung at more than 50% of the non-strikes thrown at him.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, But They Were Hittable
He did not chase the unhittable ones ala Pedro Feliz.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
I’m pretty sure that’s not true and you can’t prove that it is.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I Think His Contact Rate Out Of Zone Is Pretty Strong Evidence
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
I Can Not Argue With Success
God Help Me
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Dec 15, 2008 5:48 PM PST up reply actions
Good comment
Good comment on Pablo’s high contact rate outside the zone indicating he was chasing far more pitches close to the strike zone than pitches way outside it.
I DO remember one late pinch hitting appearance, though, in which Pablo struck out on three pitches that weren’t close to the strike zone. It made me wonder all the more if pitchers wouldn’t eventually figure him out a bit.
Why would you throw strikes to Pablo — particularly once you got ahead of him? and while Pablo is very good at hitting pithes outside the one, no player of whom I am aware hits balls as well as strikes.
Good guess
That was a fine guess. I consider Big Bad Vlad to be the best bad-ball hitter in the game.
Yet last season Vlady missed 30.3% of the balls he swung at outside the strike zone compared to only 8.6% of the pitches he swung at in the zone, so I believe you are incorrect.
Yeah
I didn’t really think it was probably true. For one thing, Guerrero sometimes swings at balls way out of the strike zone that even he can’t hit. But man I’ve seen that guy hit balls out that were almost over his head, hit a ball a foot outside and ankle-high, just ridiculous.
Just curious, where did you get those stats? Is that sort of ratio (30:9 / out:in) average?
Fan Graphs
I got the info at www.fangraphs.com. You point out a problem with free swingers who are good enough to go a little outside the zone. It can be difficult to distinguish between the ball that will be just off the plate and the pitch that will be so far off the plate as to be VERY difficult to hit in a contstructive manner.
everything’s hittable for Pablito
He’s not Pedro Feliz. He doesn’t strikeout that much and he obviously can hit a breaking ball.
Not Pedro Feliz, but
Pablo Sandoval isn’t Pedro Feliz, yet he still missed 20.6% of the pitches he swung at outside the strike zone, compared to missing just 7.1% of the pitches he swung at in the zone. That’s nearly three times the chance of missing the ball entirely.
It is my belief that if Pablo doesn’t develop more discipline, pitchers will begin to take advantage of him as they did in one pinch hitting appearance late in the season in which he struck out on three pitches, none of them in the strike zone.
Long shot?
His career minors OBP is .342 fueled primarily with a 21 year old breakout season…his first 145 AB’s in the majors were .357…he may not hit .340 OBP every year, but its not a long shot.
Just a guess
Just a guess on my part, but I would think that most undisciplined hitters see their OBP drop by 20 or 25 points on average after they make the majors.
I agree it isn’t a long shot that Pablito could fashion a .340 career OBP in the majors, but despite his fast break out the gate, I think it is a medium shot at best.
also
his walk rates in the minors were not as bad as I thought. Like 7% or so…. not a Felizian 2% or whateverz
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
I’m thinking the vast majority of those walks came from being pitched around because he was the best and most powerful hitter on his team. We can’t prove that, just a guess.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t think most major league pitchers will feel like they have to pitch around him the way a pitcher in A ball (where he has spent his entire career other than 320 at bats) would
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
oh…sorry, ok I get that now.
Sorry, this whole contest of who can over-value our players more has me on edge a bit.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
You mean like Luis “Sandy Cy Maddux” Perdomo. He’s going to strikeout every batter he faces, refreeze the polar ice caps, cure herpes AND bake everyone fresh pies before every home game.
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio.
if he does cure herpes
his nickname will need to be Luis “Valtrex” Perdomo.
Also, he would become Jose Lima’s favorite pitcher
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions
LOL, I never heard that story back then
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio.
Actually
Sandoval’s career MiLB BB rate is 5.0% – only slightly better than Feliz’s 4.3%.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
but according those oh so reliable Marcel projections sited above, he is going to exceed that by 1/3 in his first full MLB season
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Marcel is absolutely useless for players with less than 2-3 full years in the majors. And even than it’s the worst system around. ZiPS and Oliver are just as free, and much more accurate. Oliver has Pablo with a 3.8 BB% next year.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
on that rankings thing
i dunno, i kind of think it could easily be kemp-sandoval-loney-lewis… loney’s a decent player, but at 1b I’d like a bit more offense than the 102 OPS+ he put up last year (for his career, he’s at 114… better, but again, not awesome). Especially if you think Sandoval could be an honest to goodness decent ML catcher— that would raise his value for most teams considerably. The Giants are just a weird case in that we’re deeper in quality bats behind the plate (molina, sandoval, posey on the way) than we are at the corners (uh… ishikawa maybe?) but for most teams that’s definitely not the case.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Dec 15, 2008 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
Hmmm...
Loney and Kemp have had the opportunity to play regularly with the dodgers. Given time, I would think that Lewis and Pablo will be more coveted than those two.
2nd Infantry Division --- Second to None!
by Jeff_Fuller_49 on Dec 16, 2008 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
Kemp and Loney own any pre-arb hitters the Giants have, maybe even all hitters
I see the future, and it is Pablo
Right here?
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio.
If
If Sandoval and Lewis match Kemp and Loney, the Giants have a shot at finishing ahead of the Dodgers. It is the slim chance of that happening that bothers me.
Given that some how Lewis & Pablo (some how) roughly equal Kemp & Loney with the bat.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Given that some how Lewis & Pablo (some how) roughly equal Kemp & Loney with the bat in '09...
Then I have to look at the Dodgers Rotation and middle infield as it stands right now and be fearfull of another Accardo – Hillenbrand type trade come June or July.
Bah Humbug !!!
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Shorter Comparison
Giants: Defenders of truth, justice, and the American way.
Dodgers: Pure seething evil.
Josh Phelps is the new Scott McClain.
by EliminateMe on Dec 15, 2008 3:18 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Both Loney's and Kemps Numbers Last Year Were No Better Then Lewis'
Sandoval’s numbers (admittedly small sample size) beat all three of them. I think you are showing an anti hometown (or should I say anti Sabean) bias.
Question To Those So Sure Dodgers Have Pre Arb Offensive Advantage
Do you agree that the Giants have an advantage in what they get from the $75M committed to contract and arb players? If you agree do you think what you percive to be the Dodgers advantage in pre arb offense is about the same and thus they are at the very moment about equal? This is my bigger point that I was trying to discuss rather to to debate what I see as the small differences between Kemp and Loney vs Lewis and Sandoval.
I would give the Giants a slight edge in the $75 million committed department
the Dodgers a substantial edge in the pre-arbitration hitting
and the Giants a decent edge in the pre-arbitration pitching
at this point, the Dodgers wouldn’t have much of an edge over the Giants, we’ll see what happens the rest of the offseason
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
Wait… isn’t Martin also pre-arb?
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Nope - He Is Arbitration Eligable This Year Along With Either, Broxton, and Repko
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
Ok. Wouldn’t want him anyway. We’ve got Bengie!!!
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
I could easily forget how much i hated Ethier if we were to somehow procure his services.
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou...according to Baggs.
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio.
This thread has achieved new heights of ridiculousness
Anyone who knows anything at all about baseball talent would tell you in an instant that Kemp/Loney are much better than Sandoval/Lewis. It’s not even close…. and to claim it is so is just insanity.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
everybody who plays for the Giants is great, everybody who plays for the Dodgers sucks
Signed,
giantsrainmain
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 10:48 PM PST up reply actions
I Didn't Say The Giants Were Rated Higher I Said That They All Are Rated In About The Same
But even more important then that the comparison I was making to begin with was not just Lewis and Sandoval vs Kemp and Loney but rather Lewis/Sandoval/Ishikawa/Frandsen vs Kemp/Lowry/Dewitt/Hu. What I said and stand by even if I accepted that the Dodgers first two are better the Gaints first two is neither team has an advantage overall when comparing one group of four to the other.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 11:36 PM PST up reply actions
Oh ok. makes sense now
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
No, It doesn't.....
……make any sense, that is. It’s pure unadulterated garbage.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
don't get drawn in to this argument dude
Trust me, it’s like arguing with one of the seats at Mays Field. This is a guy who thinks Pablo Sandoval is just as valuable as Russell Martin.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 11:41 PM PST up reply actions
I think he’s probably just weighting Pablo’s 2008 performance too heavily….?
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
yeah, I guess. I think it’s just pure hope masquerading as psuedo-analysis
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
weighting… too heavily… Sandoval…
I see what you might have did there.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2008 7:05 AM PST up reply actions
Pablo Has The Potential To Be A True Middle Order Hitter
Martin does not. Russell is an all star catcher but he will never be a quality middle of the order hitter.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2008 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
Gee whiz man, you sound like Perricone or Mia over at OBM
Mauer’s never going to be a true middle order hitter either, but no one’s going to hold that against the guy.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
you can keep Mauer, I’d rather have Paul Konerko
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 15, 2008 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
Gracias. I’ll return the favor by letting you have Roberts if I can have David Wright
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
that sounds a little more ridiculous if you use non-Giant non-Dodger names huh?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions
Consider the lineups
Pablo is a middle-of-the-order hitter in the GIANTS’ line-up.
Put Martin in the Giants’ line-up and he could hit third…or cleanup…or BOTH.
Leading the Pro-Aaron Rowand contingent on the McC!
You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Dec 16, 2008 7:04 AM PST up reply actions
I was going to say the same time. Joe Mauer would be a middle of the order hitter if he played for the Giants.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Hmmm...
Russel Martin? He was almost traded away by LA. Didn’t he kinda suck last year?
2nd Infantry Division --- Second to None!
by Jeff_Fuller_49 on Dec 16, 2008 6:59 PM PST up reply actions
If hitting .280/.385/.396 with an OPS+ of 106 and playing Gold Glove quality defense as a catcher is sucking, then I want to have a lot of players that suck. He certainly was not almost traded away, you should probably stick to discussing unreasonable trade ideas on Niners Nation
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 7:07 PM PST up reply actions
Yep.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
He wasn't almost traded
That was just a rumor, which the Dodgers shot down as soon as they heard it
by Useful_Idiot on Dec 17, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
My expectation
My expectation is that both Fred Lewis and Matt Kemp will see an average decline in 2009. I don’t believe they will be sustaining their high BABIP’s of 2008.
Kemp is a much better bet to improve going forward (starting next year). He has more of a prospect background, and pretty much forced the Dodgers to rush him to the big leagues by tearing up the minor leagues at every stop (an OPS of 829 in his first stop and then OPSs over 900 at every stop after that). He turns 25 at the end of next season, meaning he is at the age when highly-touted players tend to take major steps forward. Lewis is already 28 and has a steady but unspectacular track record throughout his years in pro ball.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
eh, I got into this with a co-worker during the season.
Lewis and Kemp are very similar players. While Kemp certainly has the advantage overall because of his age, in any given year (last year or next) their overall production is likely to be fairly close.
Regardless of what inclusive offensive stat you prefer (OPS, wOBA, OPS+) the two are essentially within round off error of each other last year.
Both also benefit heavily from “inflated” BABIP, so it’s hard to say what is really going on there. Especially with Kemp’s ludicrous 2007 performance.
If I had to pick one player for my team, I would pick Kemp because of his age. In 5 years Kemp will probably still be a good player. Fred Lewis could very likely be out of baseball.
If I had to pick one player for the 2009 season only, I think there are arguments for both, and the correct answer is probably “who is cheaper”.
As far as Loney v. Sandoval, I think it is probably in Loney’s favor but I would not be blown away if Sandoval out performed him in ‘09. While Loney has put up a monster .395 wOBA season in 2007, that was only across 375 PA’s. His true talent is probably closer to the ~.350-.360 wOBA range.
I would personally be very happy if Sandoval could post this over an entire season. I also think it is possible and maybe even likely.
If I had to pick one player for next season, it would probably be Loney just because I am fairly confident in a 100+ OPS+ season out of him. Pablo on the other hand may very well find himself back in the minors.
But I think it is certainly possible that Pablo ends up performing at a similar level to Loney.
I see what GRM is trying to do here, and I do think he is kinda right. Position by position the Dodgers (or any team in the NL west) don’t have any HUGE advantages over the Giants. There is no Utley or Berkman or Pujols or Bonds that makes you say “This team has a huge advantage because of:____ .” The problem is, the sum of all the small advantages is enough to win them an extra 5-10 games over the course of the season, and that will likely be the difference in the standings. They are just a little better across the board.
You don’t need to have a bunch of players that are all a lot better than the competition to be the best. You need a bunch of players who are all a little better than the competition and I think, as things stand – that’s where the Dodgers currently sit.
Breakout seasons from Sandoval, Frandsen or Ishikawa could change all of this of course. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
Depending on how the FA situation works out, I think we have a significantly better rotation. Losing Lowe is going to hurt them a lot.
Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez is significantly better than Billingsley/Kershaw/McDonald.
Excepting a Lincecum-esque sophomore season from Kershaw (which would really surprise me).
by FairweatherFan on Dec 16, 2008 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
Kemp may not have a full on breakout year in 2009 (he is still only 24) but there will be a time within the next 5 years when the question “who is better Matt Kemp or Fred Lewis?” will be met with uproarious laughter
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 16, 2008 7:21 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, but I don't think GRM is talking about who is the player with the most upside
He is talking about who will help their team more in 2009. I think there is a fairly even chance that Pablo/Lewis are worth as much to the Giants as Kemp/Loney are to the Dodgers.
The only reason I am backing GRM up here is that I went through this already with a guy @ work who worshiped the ground Kemp walked on but called Lewis a scrub.
I had to pull out a few numbers and show him that their production was essentially equal.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 16, 2008 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
Almost Exactly
What I actually said is that Lewis/Sandoval/Ishikawa/Frandsen will worth as much to the the Giants in 2009 as Kemp/Loney/DeWitt/Hu will be to the Dodgers.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2008 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
Well, without having really looked @ DeWitt or Hu's #'s
I can only speak to the first pairing – but I fundamentally agree with you.
I think Kemp and Pablo are also about equally likely to have a big breakout season whilst Loney and Lewis are more than likely pretty close to their true talent level.
I don’t think the 2009 Giants would be markedly better w/ Kemp/Loney/Dewitt/Hu than they will be w/ Lewis/Pablo/Frandsen/Ishikawa.
Well, I’m skeptical about Ishikawa. That’s the missing link imo.
by FairweatherFan on Dec 16, 2008 11:16 PM PST up reply actions
I tend to agree with Fairweather, although I’d say that the combination of how bad the division is overall combined with the uneven schedule means luck will have an inordinantly large role in determining the division winner this year. If one team gets enough good luck to pile up a one-sided record against one or two division rivals (and our history against the Pads this decade is a good example of what I mean) that in itself could be enough to put them in position to win the division, no matter how bad they might be out of it (because I’d assume all the NL West teams will pretty much get waxed out of division this year).
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
Breakout season
Pablo’s breakout season was 2008, and to some extent that was true of Travis, as well.
The Dodgers Signing Of Frucal Jumps Them Into The Lead
They now have $85M committed for 2009 and with Frucal instead of Hu as starting SS are now the better team. How should the Giants respond? Would signing the Big Unit to replace Misch in the rotation for the same additinal $10M move the Giants back infront?
are you sure Furcal is any more valuable than Burriss?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 17, 2008 5:20 PM PST up reply actions
Frucal Pie?
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Padre renuente de Luis Perdomo, porque él es todo el que se deja hasta junio.
At this point..
I’d say he is. Lowry is not a certain and basically you’d have a Lowry/Misch/Pucetas/Martinez/Alderson? competition for the 5th starter spot in spring.
I think that we’ll sign Johnson negating the need for the competition, but at least at this point he’s one of the possibilities.
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