Mark, you cynic you, the Giants tried to trade Pablo for Tony — only to find out the Diamondbacks couldn’t make the trade due to Tony’s being a free agent.

As for the original poster, I concur with him that Pablo — despite his being my favorite Giants position player — is NOT a sure star. Pablo batted .385 after an 0-1 count, and that just isn’t going to continue. He also batted between 300 and 500 OPS points less from the right side than he did from the left — at all three levels he played last season, with an even bigger difference in the winter league the last time I looked.

To be honest, I don’t think Pablo’s bat will play well at first base. I think it will be adequate at third and good for a catcher.

Pablo is a great contact hitter, making contact 87% of the time. But he swung at 53of the pitches he saw — that were OUTSIDE the strike zone. Then he swung at ONLY 70 of the strikes thrown to him, indicating Pablo has a hard time telling a ball from a strike. Once pitchers fully realize this and begin to take advantage by not bothering to throw him strikes once they get ahead, it appears to me he will need to make a significant counter-adjustment in order to remain a good hitter.

Pablo is indeed a fine contact hitter. But unless he makes SOLID contact, that could actually work against him.

For all of his success, there is one at bat by Pablo that continues to resonate in my mind. As a pinch hitter near the end of the season, he struck out on three pitches — none of them strikes. If I were an opposing scout, I would tell my pitchers to get a strike on Pablo, then continue to tempt him pitches outside the strike zone. I have little doubt that Pablo is one of the best bad-ball hitters around, but when you’re hitting the pitcher’s pitch, you don’t get nearly as many hits as when you’re hitting your pitch.

Yes, more “pitchers’ pitches” are “Pablo’s pitches” than almost any other hitter around. But if you swing at more than half of all pitches outside the strike zone, you are likely to see fewer and fewer strikes and worse and worse balls.

Barring further improvement by Pablo (which is certainly possible, since he’s only 22), I would expect his average to decline by 60 to 75 points next season. That would essentially make him Pedro Feliz with fewer strikeouts but few more hits or walks.

Pablo needs to take more balls and swing at more strikes.

Let’s trade him for Matt Cain…

Swinging at more than half of the balls thrown to him and at only 70% of the strikes describes both poor judgment and poor discipline to me.

.310/.340/.475 is indeed quite good for a catcher, but will Pablo really hit that well? Pablo batted .345 last season due only to an unsustainable .367 BABIP. If his BABIP had been a more normal .300, he would have batted .286/.298/.417/.715. That’s Pedro Feliz with more hits but less power.

Incidentally, Pablo’s BABIP wasn’t .367 even in the minor leagues. It was .331, and almost all players see their BABIP’s drop in the majors, often significantly. Pablo will likely improve his power some, but unless he explodes from the right side soon just as he did last year from the left, his average is likely to drop considerably.

I love to watch Pablo play and am very glad he is a Giant. I just don’t think he’s as good a hitter as many others here believe he is.

Apparently the Giants would like Pablo to handle whichever corner next season is the weaker. I would presume he would also back up Bengie behind the dish.

To be perfectly honest, I haven’t seen a lot of squaring up of pitches 10 feet in the air. And Pablo Sandoval isn’t going to be a .333 hitter for very long.

Tony Gwynn had a .354 BABIP in the minors; Pablo’s, while definitely good, was .331. Tony struck out only once every 13.9 at bats in the minors and somehow improved that to once every 21.4 at bats as a major leaguer. Pablo struck out once every 7.5 at bats in the minors and isn’t likely to see significant improvement, particularly is pitchers find they don’t really have to throw him strikes.

I can understand being excited by Pablo. He’s my favorite position player. I’m also almost certain he played over his head with the Giants last season. The chances of his .367 BABIP staying intact can’t be any better than the chances of Barry Zito winning 20 games.