FanPost

OT: Evan's Election Projection recap

Since thirteen of us were foolhardy enough to venture guesses on the election, I thought I'd do a recap for those interested (warning: no Trade Matt Cain content).

Here are the numbers so far (MN Senate race will be a run-off, so we won't know those results for at least a couple of months, as I understand it):

Electoral Vote:  364 - 174 (based on cnn website).  I'm giving Missouri to McCain and N. Carolina to Obama, based on their current leads in those states.  Idaho Nick was our closest guesser at 360-178.  Second closest was jponry with 374-164 - if Missouri were to go to Obama, she'd only be off by only one.

Popular Vote: 120,500,791.  Most of us guessed higher, so Speedforthewin's 120,000,000 was easily the closest.  Second closest was oldjacket's 130,000,000.  postiveuphemism thought there would be more than 150 million votes.

Popular vote percentage: The latest numbers I have are 53% for Obama and 46% for McCain.  kennv is our winner at 52.5-46.5 - very impressive!  Second place is jponry with 52-46, CB30 and oldjacket with 52-47, and Idaho Nick with 53-47.  nvsfg thought Obama would win 56-44%.  On the other end of the spectrum, I predicted a much narrower 48.8-46.9.  I know nothing.

Senate:  Small problem here, as four races are officially undecided.  The CNN website indicates a 13,000-vote lead for the Democrat in Oregon; a 3,400-vote lead for the Republican in Alaska (newly-minted felon Ted Stevens); a 114,000-vote lead for the Republican Saxby Chambless in Georgia; and a statistical tie in Minnesota.  Georgia state law requires that the winning candidate must have 50% of the vote, minimum, or there must be a runoff - the vote now is precariously close to the magic 50% number, so there may or may not be a runoff.  I'm going to give Oregon to the Democrats, and Alaska and Georgia to the Republicans.  Minnesota will take months to decide, so I'm going to leave them out of the numbers here.  So for our purposes, the result is 56-41-2. So we a tie for winner here, with oldjacket (56-42-2) and Evan (57-41-2) the closest to the result.  Thus, oldjacket is pulling for the Republican in Minnesota, and Evan is pulling for the Democrat, Al Franken. positiveuphemism again had the highest Democratic guess at 60-40.  Neifichicken, on the other hand, predicted the Republicans would have the edge 51-47-2....or was that a typo, Neifi?

House: some races are apparently not yet decided. I didn't delve too deeply into this; CNN is reporting the results as 254-173 with eight races not decided.  I hate uncertainty, so I'll go with MSNBC's numbers (I'm assuming they've predicted the likeliest of outcomes), so let's go with 259-176.  With that, kennv is our closest prognosticator at 257-177. Second place goes to the math-challenged bgunn with a 258-176. Third place goes to the equally math-challenged Lyle at 257-177. Bgunn and I have clearly forgotten that 435 number from our Civics classes.

See, Evan, you did quite well.  As for me, I'll stick to baseball predictions, and guess nothing in 2012.

 

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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