OT: Evan's Election Projection recap
by Lyle on Nov 6, 2008 7:48 AM PST
37 comments
Since thirteen of us were foolhardy enough to venture guesses on the election, I thought I'd do a recap for those interested (warning: no Trade Matt Cain content).
Here are the numbers so far (MN Senate race will be a run-off, so we won't know those results for at least a couple of months, as I understand it):
Electoral Vote: 364 - 174 (based on cnn website). I'm giving Missouri to McCain and N. Carolina to Obama, based on their current leads in those states. Idaho Nick was our closest guesser at 360-178. Second closest was jponry with 374-164 - if Missouri were to go to Obama, she'd only be off by only one.
Popular Vote: 120,500,791. Most of us guessed higher, so Speedforthewin's 120,000,000 was easily the closest. Second closest was oldjacket's 130,000,000. postiveuphemism thought there would be more than 150 million votes.
Popular vote percentage: The latest numbers I have are 53% for Obama and 46% for McCain. kennv is our winner at 52.5-46.5 - very impressive! Second place is jponry with 52-46, CB30 and oldjacket with 52-47, and Idaho Nick with 53-47. nvsfg thought Obama would win 56-44%. On the other end of the spectrum, I predicted a much narrower 48.8-46.9. I know nothing.
Senate: Small problem here, as four races are officially undecided. The CNN website indicates a 13,000-vote lead for the Democrat in Oregon; a 3,400-vote lead for the Republican in Alaska (newly-minted felon Ted Stevens); a 114,000-vote lead for the Republican Saxby Chambless in Georgia; and a statistical tie in Minnesota. Georgia state law requires that the winning candidate must have 50% of the vote, minimum, or there must be a runoff - the vote now is precariously close to the magic 50% number, so there may or may not be a runoff. I'm going to give Oregon to the Democrats, and Alaska and Georgia to the Republicans. Minnesota will take months to decide, so I'm going to leave them out of the numbers here. So for our purposes, the result is 56-41-2. So we a tie for winner here, with oldjacket (56-42-2) and Evan (57-41-2) the closest to the result. Thus, oldjacket is pulling for the Republican in Minnesota, and Evan is pulling for the Democrat, Al Franken. positiveuphemism again had the highest Democratic guess at 60-40. Neifichicken, on the other hand, predicted the Republicans would have the edge 51-47-2....or was that a typo, Neifi?
House: some races are apparently not yet decided. I didn't delve too deeply into this; CNN is reporting the results as 254-173 with eight races not decided. I hate uncertainty, so I'll go with MSNBC's numbers (I'm assuming they've predicted the likeliest of outcomes), so let's go with 259-176. With that, kennv is our closest prognosticator at 257-177. Second place goes to the math-challenged bgunn with a 258-176. Third place goes to the equally math-challenged Lyle at 257-177. Bgunn and I have clearly forgotten that 435 number from our Civics classes.
See, Evan, you did quite well. As for me, I'll stick to baseball predictions, and guess nothing in 2012.
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Duly noted
And I have a long memory. : )
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 6, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Must be early for you
I think you meant Palin 396, Obama 142.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 6, 2008 8:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe in that 3rd grade classroom mock election
by FairweatherFan on Nov 6, 2008 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In Wasilla Alaska :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 6, 2008 9:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My wife had one of those in her 1st grade classroom
Result: McCain 15-2
The two that voted for Obama had this reasoning: McCain looks too old.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 6, 2008 9:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s good to see that my reasoning skills are on par with a 1st grader.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 6, 2008 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You think Palin can hold the party together? She seems like a deeply polarizing figure even among conservatives.
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mrs. Barracuda
And aren’t we forgetting the very real possibility of The Rapture occurring in the next four years?
by biff pocoroba on Nov 6, 2008 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no, it was really a tongue-in-cheek comment
I’m not a big fan and as a conservative I hope they’ll find someone better to make a run at the office in ’12.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 6, 2008 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
It will be very interesting to observe the jockeying for position over the next 2-3 years among the Republicans – that’s always the fascinating thing about whichever party is out of power. Good times for us political junkies.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 6, 2008 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats an epic destruction, Maybe even Palin would get more then that…….nah
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Nov 6, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think it matters much who the GOP runs. Sitting presidents in the middle of economic upswings typically win in blowouts. I figure the economy stays horrible for at least a couple more years and the Dems get clobbered in the 2010 midterms, but the economy turns around in plenty of time for Obama’s popularity to rebound. A reprise of Reagan’s first term, basically. Only liberaler.
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for doing this, Lyle.
I keep reading wildly varying estimates for how many votes were cast, like plus or minus 10 million. Is there really some huge cache of uncounted votes out there?
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 8:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and you and bgunn are right about the house tally. There’s one vacant seat (Stephanie Tubbs Jones’s, who died a couple of months ago) that will be filled in a special election. Not sure why they couldn’t arrange to have the special election coincide with the actual election, but whatever.
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 8:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
because it’s a special election. You don’t want that dumped in with a regular ol’ run of the mill election.
by tyrannoman on Nov 6, 2008 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the recap Lyle. My very first presidential election vote was for Ronald Regan, and I have voted in every national, state and local election, in every state I have been in. This one held my attention more than any other than that first one.
As is obvious by my projections, I was very optimistic regarding this election. No tinfoil hats or anything, but information continues to stream in. I hope that we get to see all of the information and results . Yesterday, I learned that many early, absentee, provisional ballots have not even been counted yet because many states were decided without them.
The role of technology in our elections continues to grow with electronic voting, and it gives better definition/data to review and analyze what really happened.
One of the things that fascinated me this year was results maps by county. How population and geography affects the results. Here is another break down
that adds some interesting information to the mix. The most telling one is that allows for degrees of color by voting percentage, as opposed to the standard “Red or Blue”. I hope we can finally lose those definitions as bad part of our history.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 6, 2008 9:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You clearly have an outstanding VORV. That, and being a Matt Downs fan, earns you high marks in my book. In my first Presidential election, I voted for Jimmy Carter. Great minds don’t necessarily think alike, it would appear.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 6, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
*Value Over Replacement Voter*? Nice :-)
I grew up in a military family in SoCal. In my early voting years, there really was not much of a chance that I would vote anything other than republican. It was an age issue I believe. All of my neural synapses were not yet formed .
I have however come to my senses in my advancing age. I now vote for the best candidate available, regardless of Party.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 6, 2008 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoah man..
Some of those maps are….whoah…
*switches Ummagumma discs *
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 6, 2008 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lyle - where did you come up with 53% to 46% ?
Most places that I’ve looked at are saving 52% to 46%.
I say jponry is the winner.
As for strange and scary predictions… I heard this on the radio yesterday:
When Stevens gets convicted and is forced to resign, Sara Palin will have the job of selecting his replacement. She can decide to choose herself as his replacement.
by Jakespaar on Nov 6, 2008 10:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Apparently they changed the law and no replacement will be selected — instead they’ll have a special election. But of course she can run in that election, and would surely win.
But Begich is still 50/50 to beat Stevens in this election, once they get everything counted.
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad to hear that I was wrong
GO Begich! And while I’m at it, GO Al Franken! GO Jim Martin! And Gratz to Jeff Merkley, who has been declared the winner in Oregon.
by Jakespaar on Nov 6, 2008 11:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's both: appointment for now, special election later. See below.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Nov 6, 2008 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Generally...
When there is a vacancy created in Congress, that state’s governor gets to appoint the replacement right away, and then that state’s law will govern whether there will be a special election to select the person who will serve the rest of the vacated term. So, for example, if Stevens were indicted with 6 months left on his term, the governor would just appoint a replacement and no state would have a special election (which usually cannot be called fewer than, like 90 days ahead of time) in order to fill out the last few months of a term.
In the case of Stevens, of course, there will be 5.9999 years left on his term, so no state would let the governor’s appointee just get that much of a term without standing for election.
So, the governor WILL get to appoint an interim Senator, AND there will be a special election.
As for whether a governor can appoint herself, the answer appears to be no. What she would have to do is have an “understanding” with her lieutenant governor (I was going to say a “wink wink,” but someone would think that I was being a sexist in calling out her signature gesture) that if she resigned, the lieutenant governor would appoint her to the interim Senate seat, from which she would run in the special election. This was pulled once, by Happy Chandler (I think). I don’t think it’s been pulled since.
But really, is there any reason to think she would want that? If she were smart (cough), she would go back to her job, study for the next couple years, learn national issues, international affairs, etc., and then come back into the national arena on better terms, if that’s what she wants.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Nov 6, 2008 11:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The appointment question is murky. Check out this piece. Key grafs:
When Frank Murkowski left the Senate and won the governorship in 2002, he promptly appointed his own daughter, Lisa Murkowski, as his Senate replacement. Back then, the state law allowed Alaska’s governor to make appointments without holding special elections. (That’s how Ted Stevens landed in the Senate; Governor Wally Hickel appointed him in 1968.) When Palin ran for governor against Murkowski in the Republican primary in 2006, she criticized him for appointing his daughter, even handing out flyers that said, “Who’s Your Daddy?”
In 2004, Alaskans voted to change the law, calling for a special election. The Alaska Legislature also passed a law requiring a special election. The laws conflict, however, over whether the governor is allowed to appoint a temporary replacement.
My guess is that she uses this ambiguity to decline to appoint anyone, so she won’t have to compete with an incumbent in the special election.
by Evan on Nov 6, 2008 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You beat me to it
I was just about to post that link
by Jakespaar on Nov 6, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jake
I got the 52 percent/46 percent numbers from msnbc.com
I suck at creating links here, but here goes a try anyway
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 6, 2008 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
52/46 was what I said I was seeing
Popular vote percentage: The latest numbers I have are 53% for Obama and 46% for McCain.
is what you originally said.
Therefore, I call jponry the winner of the PVP prediction.
by Jakespaar on Nov 6, 2008 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Slightly OT but I guess it fits here.
Props to Nate Silver. He is going to the next level with his absolute nailing of the election at 538.com. Who knew a baseball stats geek would cross over to politics? I wonder what his next projection will involve?
by out machine on Nov 6, 2008 10:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Don't leave us xanthan!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 6, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
byaaaah!
Third place tie in the Popular vote percentage!
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Nov 6, 2008 1:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, go me!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 6, 2008 3:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I was able to win a catagory!
granted, IMO, it was the one that required the least guessing skill. Props go out to jponry, Idaho Nick, kennv, oldjacket and evan!
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 6, 2008 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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