The case for playing our 2b/SS prospects, and an unlikely FA proposal.
by Gregjitsu on Nov 25, 2008 1:50 PM PST
80 comments
There have been a lot of threads recently about signing a relatively big-name middle infielder. As is probably clear from my comments, I don't like the idea at all. Everybody seems to think I'm crazy to want to play Burriss, so I'll talk a little about why.
$$$-San Francisco is a big market team-kind of. Ultimately, payroll is going to be what Neukom says it will be. At the moment, I'm working from the assumption that we'll probably be around $90-100mil next year. According to Grant's nifty spreadsheet from a few days ago, 77mil is committed to next year, and 44 commmitted in 2010. Realistically, that leaves us around 13-23million more to spend on FA's for next year, and much more in 2010. If we sign Furcal, we're committing around 12mil for a leadoff hitter, which we already have in Winn or Lewis. This takes us to 90mil, which leaves maybe 10 to spend on next year. We probably can't get the 'middle of the order bat' we so desperately need, if we spend money on a middle infielder.
Our middlie infield prospects: Burriss, Frandsen, and Velez. 2008. Velez-nobody likes him, but I love the guy. His glove is still a bit scary, but his bat came a long way last year. His August line was .300/.317/.475/.792, and his September line was .341/.367/.458/.825. He was a completely different batter after his stint in Fresno. He has a great winter ball line, but only played five games. Not sure why he isn't playing. Franny didn't have a 2008, but we all know what he did in the minors and in 07. He has put up a respectable .331/.392/.421/.813 in Zona's fall league. Burris had a good season, and really blossomed when he was given playing time. He hit .299/.402/.345/.747 in August. He got hurt and didn't play as much or as well in Sept. Franny and Burris have poor power numbers, but get on base well and play good defense. Velez has a scary glove in the field, but he's speedy, and his power numbers really jumped late in the season.
I would really like to see us platoon the three guys. There should be 1200+ AB's to be had from 2nd and SS. I'd love to see the G's aim to give each guy 400+ AB's. If one of the guys falls off a cliff, then it's down to two players. If two or more of the guys are deemed a failure at the end of 2009, we can sign a FA or trade for middle infield help knowing more about our farm system and with considerably more payroll flexibility.
What I'd like to see the Giants do this offseason? Sign another reliever or two. Then, sign Jason Giambi to a 2-3 year deal at 10-15 million a year that is incentive heavy. He's on the decline, but he can still wallop the ball, and he will still get on base. I think he has a floor of around .250/.350/.450/.800, and he should hit at least 20 homers. I think a line of .260/.375/.475/.850, with 25 homers and near 100 RBI's is most likely. Put a lot of incentives into the contract so that if he's hurt, we're not out a ton of money. We should absolutely be able to squeeze a reliever and Giambi into 15-20mil of contract next year.
I think signing Giambi makes a lot of sense. He gives us a power hitter, and would probably sign a short term contract. Give him 2-3 years, and he'll take us right up to the Angel Villalona era.
Anyway, I doubt this will be a popular idea. But I honestly think it'sa good compromise of playing youngsters, keeping our eye on the horizon, and improving in the short term. It's no more risky than signing an aging, fragile middle infielder, and it shores up our weakest point-power hitting. I see Giambi as about as risky as Furcal, but with more upside for our particular team. It also doesn't compromise our future by blocking Villalona (ala Winn/Rowand with Nate) or losing draft picks.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
0 recs |
80 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Hmm, I'm not as high on Frandsen as most people here.
Hasheem "The Dream" Thabeet or Brandon Jennings. A Warrior in 09.
With the 6th Pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, the SF Giants pick Donovan Tate.
Andre Smith in Silver & Black in 2009.
nah...
the Tussin! the Tussin!
The bases were drunk, and I painted the black with my best yakker. But blue squeezed me, and I went full. I came back with my heater, but the stick flares one the other way and the chalk flies for two bases. Three earnies! Next thing I know, skipper hooks me and I'm sipping suds with the clubby.
Sudafed for me
Bastard sinuses are acting up again.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 25, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
Let the tussin’ get down into the bone there.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 25, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
Errr'body in the club
gettin’ Tussined
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 25, 2008 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
+1
"But if he's swinging at real flies, well, in that case there are two definite solutions: 1) Fresno 2) Ritalin." - howtheyscored
I agree with Grant’s post today and wonder why this post couldn’t have just been a reply to that.
I also think we’ll be lucky if one of Burriss/Frandsen/Velez turns into a producxtive starter. Hence, getting Renteria wouldn’t be a bad use of funds for 2 years.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Maybe cuz this one is just really, really long...?
Woulda been almost as bad as some clown posting the lyrics to an entire 80s rock song in a reply…
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Nov 25, 2008 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
+1
And a year in AAA would really probably be a good thing for Burriss if possible.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Kevin Frandsen has produced at each level he has played. While injured for the entire 2008 ML season he just completed a healthy AFL. Frandsen played a lot of games at SS and stole 10 bases. He is all the way back and should be given every opportunity to win the 2b job for 2009.
Manny Burriss is still a work in process. The 2yr/18M Renteria contract would give the organization a solid SS, vet presence and quiet leader for the infield. During these two years SF then can gauge the development of Burriss, Gillaspie, Velez, Adrianza, Schoop, Culberson and Crawford.
Very well said
plus the idea above mentions Velez getting some ABs at SS….
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
I don't really mind if he takes a few ABs at SS.
Just don’t want him fielding there.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
My nitpick.
I actually don’t want Velez to get AB’s at SS, his glove is scary enough at 2nd (as you point out). What I’d like to see is: Burris-400 AB’s at SS; Velez-400 AB’s at 2nd; Frandsen-200 AB’s at 2nd, and 200 AB’s at SS. Burriss and Velez stay at the positions they have played most at, and Franny splits time, since it’s something he’s done already. Velez’s glove is better at 2nd, and Burriss bat is better at Short.
I'd like to see
Burriss with a year at Fresno before I put him in the starting lineup again.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
Kevin Frandsen has produced at each level he has played.
Yeah, but he’s never produced anything that translates well to the majors.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
nitpick
If we sign Furcal, we’re committing around 12mil for a leadoff hitter, which we already have in Winn or Lewis.
Doesn’t matter. Focus on a player’s level of ability than on the type of hitter he is (especially on a team like this one, which needs all the offensive help it can get). Having three “leadoff hitters” is just as useful as having three “cleanup hitters.”
I would argue that three leadoff hitters and NO cleanup hitters is not as useful as two leadoff hitters and one cleanup hitter.
Also, why talk about the Renteria 2yrs/18mil contract when it was a complete fantasy? If we actually manage to sign a FA SS to a 2 year deal, rather than a 3-4 year deal, I’m okay with it. Furcal has said very publicly that he wants a 4-year deal. I think to some extent he will set the market for short-stops. I think it’s unlikley that any of them sign for less than 3 years, however, which sort of pushed the deal from ‘meh’ to ‘blech’ for me. I also would really rather not give up draft picks for the SS, either.
IF
you are talking about the difference between a .350/.500 guy cleanup guy and a .370/.400 lead off guy, then yeah, duh. Note that both of these guys are likely to be the best hitter on the 2009 SF Giants (as currently constructed).
if their OPSs (or whatever useful stat you choose) are equal, it matters basically not at all, except that the higher OBP guy is probably a little better.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
We have a possible starting SS in Burriss (this year or next). Our closest long term plan for 1B just turned 18.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Darn you counterpoint!
After another look at TI’s 2008 season I guess I should try to forget 06 & 07.
Wait, are the Giants going to give either a shot next year?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Perhaps
But, while theoretically 2 leadoff hitters and one cleanup hitter might be better that 3 leadoff hitters, you aren’t constructing a team in theory.
In the real world MLB, it’s rare that you can construct an “ideal” team. Instead, you get the best players you can for the money.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
the best players you can for the money
I agree it’s a good theory, but that’s also how we ended up with 3 guys who were originally signed to play centerfield due to make $26.75 million next year. You should sign what you need, you don’t grab 3 leadoff hitters, 3 centerfielders, 3 corner infielders (whichever) just because they’re a ‘good buy’.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
Center field is a position
as is SS, or 1b etc.
Leadoff hitter isn’t exactly a position. You can play 3 leadoff hitter types. You can’t play 1bs. Furthermore, “good buys” can be traded. The key is that they be “good buys”. Dave Roberts is nowhere, nohow a “good buy”. Thus, he is untradeable.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Good buy? ahem...Maestro, if you please
Never can say good buy
No no no no, I
Never can say good buy
Every time I think I had enough
I start heading for the door
They send an invoice to renew my seats
and I’m a fan down to my core
They say “pony up you fool,
though we we charge you more and more”
There my seats
I love them so
Don’t wanna them go
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
FWIW...
Part 1 of my projections on the players…
Velez: .277/.338/.417/.754
530 AB
147 H
31 2B
15 3B
4 HR
41 K
Burriss: .349/.418/.421/.839
69 AB
24 H
2 2B
1 3B
1 HR
1 K
Need more data on Frandsen, and Velez’s (don’t yell at me if this isn’t right!) isn’t done yet, as I’ll run some more regressions on him. Note, these are just linear regression of ABs and AVG, then linear regression of things such as K rate, 2B/H, etc.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
69 ABs?
I think you have a typo somewhere… I don’t think Burriss would hit .419/.421 at San Jose. Maybe in the PAC-10.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
Nope 69 ABs..
It’s just a straight linear regression of data I’ve collected. With the data he’s got 537ABs in 2007 and 303 ABs in 2008, so 69 ABs is what will be in 2009 in the linear model. For players with more than 2 years of data I’ll do other regressions but for Burris (and Bocock, Rohlinger, and Gillaspie) I won’t be able to run any more.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I think
you might need to have talk with a Mr. Bayse
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
is that second one supposed to be Frandsen?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Again..
Linear progression. For players with only two years of data, Burriss, it’s just adding the difference of the past two years to last year. If he’d had 100 ABs two years ago, and 500 ABs last year, I would project him to have 900 ABs.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
OK...
If I understand you correctly, you’re basically “regressing” away from average, instead of towards average. If a player hits .260, every year, and then suddenly hits .220 once, odds are that he’ll hit ~.250 the next year. But you expect him to hit .180. Is that correct?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
Depends.
If he’s hit say .260 in 2007 and .220 in 2006 then yes. But if he’d hit .260 for 10 years and then hit .220, I’d put that estimate at .245. Linear is all I can do for players with two years of data, but I plan on doing quadratic and logarithmic equation regressions as well, and averaging all three together to get my final output. Right now I don’t have the resources to do those regressions, so all I have set up in my Excel Spreadsheet is the linear ones so far.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
"trendy" is not the word I'd use
“Useless” comes closer.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
From what I have here, yes.
But as I said, I’ve only set up the linear models. I’m going to use several different models and combine them to get the best.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I would really like to see us platoon the three guys. There should be 1200+ AB’s to be had from 2nd and SS. I’d love to see the G’s aim to give each guy 400+ AB’s.
The only problem with that, as some people have mentioned or hinted at already, is the only player of the three that is capable of playing SS adequately is Burriss. I probably don’t have to elaborate as to why Velez at SS is a bad idea, but even Frandsen showed (in limited time, albeit) that he could not play SS that well.
So why would you rather block Ishi, when he has shown more promise than your man crush Burriss? Thats what you are proposing by signing Giambi.
I can haz homerunz!
First base vs. SS.
The upgrade from Ishikawa to Giambi is going to be more than 100 points of OPS. Last year, Ish put up a .768 OPS, and Giambi put up .876. Giambi is a career .943 OPS hitter. He’s older, and there is the whole steroid thing, so while he may not have another .950+ season, he still rates to be our best hitter. I think an .850 OPS is probably his floor, barring injury. Plus, the market will probably undervalue him, and at 37 he won’t want a 4-6 year contract, and might even take a 2-year deal.
Upgrade from Burriss to Furcal is a bit less than .80 points of OPS. So Giambi is a bigger upgrade. Burris compares even more favorably to Renteria and Cabrera. His OPS is .020 lower than Cabrera, and .013 lower than Renteria, but he had a much better OBP than either guy. And in his hot month of September, when he had regular playing time, he put a better line than either guy did in 2008. He’s continued to take walks and get on base in the AFL. If Renteria and Cabrera did what they did last season, they will barely, barely be offensive upgrades, and people are saying both have lost a step defensively. Furcal, while a legitimate offensive upgrade, isn’t taking less than a 4 year contract, and is an injury risk.
I’m not dying for us to sign Giambi. I do think it makes more sense than signing Furcal, Cabrera, or Renteria. My feeling is just that if we are going to try and buy a team next season, let’s address our one glaring hole-home run power in the batting order.
Honestly, if the only thing the Giants did this off-season was fix the bullpen, that would be okay with me. I’d like to see them judiciously add to the offense, but if we don’t find a good fit this off-season, I’d rather just save the money and spend it on a player we really need.
Upgrades
I listened to a few Yankee games on the radio this year and even the homer announcers were wailing about Giambi’s D. I really didn’t mind the rebuilding last year — especially after the departure of Castillo and Durham — so I’d just as soon give Manny, Franny and V their shots in the middle, fix the bullpen and roll the dice. The only power we should be investing in is young power.
by NearestNorwich on Nov 25, 2008 7:19 PM PST up reply actions
Like people are pointing out, you dont understand just how bad Giambi is on d. Plus his power will decrease a ton when he moves to AT&T, so Giambi in this lineup is not going to be an upgrade. You keep comparing Burriss’ ONE MONTH of offense to guys one bad season. Burriss has shown nothing, one good month means nothing. Look at his minor league numbers man, they arent good. Burriss could be a serviceable SS in the future, but he needs,at the very minimum, another season in AAA.
I can haz homerunz!
Oh boy - Klesko the Sequel.
Give that cough syrup now.
No there will not be any left when I have the bottle back to you.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Helpful
Since the Giants have a question mark for their starting shortstop and no backup, it would be really nice if Kevin Frandsen can indeed play shortstop. Or Eugenio Velez, who was indeed a shortstop originally but now seem to play the position of pinch runner best.
If the play to somewhat equally split at bats between Burriss, Frandsen and Velez is to have any chance of working, one of the last two will need to be able to play about a third of the games at shortstop.
I believe Brian Bocock is available though. Actually, I kind of feel sorry for the guy. He was actually made the sacrificial lamb when Omar went down and Kevin struck out at shortstop. Don’t forget that before blowing out his Achilles, Kevin had flunked his great opportunity to be a starter at shortstop until Omar came back.
When you can’t be counted on to play a position for even a month, even your utility value drops.
Once Furcal comes off the board
in the next several days by either the A’s or even the Braves jumping in late, the cost of Renteria will go beyond the alleged 2/$18 million deal, because the Cards will pay more than the Giants. At that point, the Giants will lose out on both of them, and have to think about a fall-back (perhaps overpaying for Hudson or even Cabrera).
Matt Cain's drinking buddy
Greg
I agree with you on the basic premise that signing a Furcal-type player would be a bd idea because it would prevent us from signing a FA slugger – but I disagree on the suggestion of Giambi for that role. I’m not the biggest Mark Teixeira fan, but I’d MUCH rather give him too much money to do something we can’t do on our own (hit HR and get RBI) than give Furcal too much money to do something we could probably piece together from a couple of cheaper players (OBP from Frandsen & Lewis & maybe Sandoval).
It isn’t an ideal middle infield (Burris/Frandsen/Velez), and I shudder when thinking of Velez on defense. My preference would be Burriss at SS and Frandsen at 2B, with Velez as backup or in Fresno – but if Burriss falls off a cliff offensively, then at some point we’d have to do something about that. Which is why I understand the interest in a 2-year deal for Renteria. But that only makes sense, to me, if we also sign Teixeira or trade for someone comparable (and I don’t know who that would be). Lacking the addition of a Teixeira, I don’t want to spend money on either Furcal or Renteria.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
Furcal is not what this team needs! esp for 4 years at a high price at his age.
yep Frandsen was horrible playing short last Spring. Was that due to the tendon being weak and almost broke? Is he looking more competent now in winter league? We need data, newer data!
Greg, thanks for finding the Velez Aug and Sept numbers, I was wondering about that. Add the game ending RBIs, Eugenio is a heckuva #7 or 8 hitter.
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
Assuming Kevin Frandsen can play short is like assuming Lowry can pitch effectively again or that Velez will figure out how to play baseball. Yeah, it could happen. But it’s something to root for, not count on.
Shortstop and 5th starter are the biggest holes on this team.
So you’re saying that Noah Lowry can pitch effectively again and Velez will figure out how to play baseball!
I wish I’d known all this before! It would have saved me a lot of tears.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 26, 2008 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
I think the only real SS choices we have this offseason
are:
1. Commit to Burriss until later this season if someone like Hardy becomes available;
2. Go all in for Furcal now:
3. Failing that, go for Renteria as purely a two-year stopgap until Crawford is ready.
Frandsen isn’t really a sound SS option defensively, and this decision really comes down to where they want to put their money.
As for 1B, their choices aren’t clear-cut there either. Tex doesn’t want to play here, and neither does Dunn I believe (given how he knows he can’t send his moonshots out of this park like he can elsewhere). The only other free agents who could come in at 1B are the likes of Giambi and possibly Pat Burrell (with their defensive liabilities), and again, you’d be looking for someone to be a bridge to possibly Villalona for several years. But if you opt for the inexpensive and better-defensive option at 1B (Ishi/Phelps), you then need to get your offensive upgrade at the left side of the infield, which means going all in for Furcal and perhaps making a run at Beltre for instant offense and defense on that side of the infield at higher cost, or accepting Pablo at 3B until Molina is gone and Posey is ready.
Sabean won’t really explore trade options until the winter meetings in December, when we’ll get a sense if anything with Beltre is even possible. By then, some of this FA fog will clear because Furcal and perhaps Hudson/Cabrera will be on new teams. Tex might also, but there are conflicting signs about what the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees will do about him.
At this time in the offseason, the only thing Sabean can do is make a decision on whether it makes any sense for this team to make a 4-year commitment to Furcal or not. All of the other decisions at 3B and 1B spin from that.
Matt Cain's drinking buddy
Very good, Buck
I think you laid it out correctly.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- We're Going Streaking! Delmon Young is finally blossoming
- Edwin Jackson is headed to Chicago, but will he stay there?
- Is Bryce Harper using Facebook for contract leverage?
- Say what? Michael Saunders chases homer, creates bleacher chaos
- Twins fans are the opposite of psyched for this Matt Capps trade
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
