McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List #12
Feel free to make a write in as your vote. Just list who you want, don't vote in the poll, and then try and make a case to sway people. I'm not adding anyone right now just because we have enough clogging up the poll. This poll will end about 6pm PST on Tuesday night.
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. "C" Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Rafael Rodriguez
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Kevin Pucetas
11. Travis Ishikawa
Ehire Adrianza, SS, 19 - Hit .241/.351/.325 in 2007 over 249 AB in the DSL with 41 BB and 37 K. Hit .288/.382/.409 in 2008 over 66 AB, mostly in Rookie Ball with 9 BB and 6 K. He is an excellent defensive SS and scouts love him.
Scott Barnes, LHP, 21 - Pitched 90.1 innings at St. John's in 2008 with 90 K, 45 BB, 3 HR, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.69 ERA as a junior. Pitched 43.2 innings in the minors in 2008, mostly at A-Ball Augusta, with 63 K, 12 BB, 0 HR, 0.67 WHIP, 1.38 ERA, and ~40% groundball rate. He throws a high 80's, low 90's fastball, a slider, and a change.
Brandon Crawford, SS, 21 - Drafted 2008, #117 overall. Hit .335/.404/.504 over 248 AB with 25 BB and 58 K his sophmore year of college at UCLA in 2007. Hit .302/.394/.491 over 232 AB with 31 BB and 59 K his junior year. He is another toolsy player considered to have not broken out yet.
Wendell Fairley, OF, 20 - Drafted 2007, #29 overall. Hit .259/.388/.337 over 193 AB in Rookie Ball in 2008 with 26 BB and 37 K. He has incredible tools with plus raw power and great speed.
Joseph Martinez, SP, 25 - Drafted 2005, #372 overall. Has thrown 547.2 innings in his 4 years of pro ball with an ERA of 3.40 and 1.17 WHIP. Last season in AA he threw 148 innings with 131 H, 6 HR 37 BB 112 K for an ERA of 2.49 and 1.14 WHIP with a 57% groundball rate. More of a finesse pitcher than anything, but has continued to post good stats as he moves up in levels.
Osiris Matos, RP, 24 - Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2002. Started his career as a starter and was converted to a reliever in 2006. Last year in the majors his threw 20.2 innings and had a 4.79 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP, but in 36.2 innings in AA this year had a 1.23 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.
Ryan Rohlinger, 3B/2B?, 25 - Drafted 2006, #176 overall. Has played 3B in the minors but is being considered for 2B it seems. Hit .235/.332/.415 in his first full season with 18 HR in the SAL league. Hit for a better average last year in San Jose at .285/.368/.419 and posted a .855 OPS in a short AA trial before being called up to the big leagues to sit on the bench. He's got good patience but probably not the power to stick at third.
Clayton Tanner, LHP, 20 - Drafted 2006, #89 overall. Over three seasons has thrown 278.1 IP, 288 H, 213 K, 91 BB, 7 HR, 1.36 WHIP, 3.62 ERA, and ~56% groundball rate across the three levels of A-ball. In 2008 threw 117.0 IP, 124 H, 84 K, 39 BB, 1 HR, 1.39 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, and a 55% groundball rate in High-A. He throws a fastball, breaking ball, and change.
Testers: Justin Hedrick, Brian Anderson, Thomas Neal, EME, Matt Downs, Aaron King, Ben Snyder, Ben Copeland, Jesse English
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
4 recs |
130 comments
Comments
I like Barnes more than any of the other guys, but I like Crawford’s potential a lot (Fairley’s too, but I’m less optimistic about him).
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Nov 23, 2008 10:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I really love what Barnes did in his debut but I’m going with Tanner’s pre-injury Lowry potential and High-A success at the tender age of 20.
Scott Barnes has my vote for 13 though.
by Keenlow on Nov 23, 2008 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Barnes all the way
I’m not sure why you’d want to rank Fairley anywhere in the top 20. When you take away his OMG hit-by-pitch numbers, he looks like the second coming of Arturo McDowell.
additional name: Kevin Nicholson
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 6:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn’t you rank him in the top 20? I mean, he obviously has the draft pedigree (which obviously doesn’t mean he’s great) he’s got good tools, a decent swing, can play a premium position & has put up ok stats in a brief debut.
Unless you’re giving up on him after a so-so professional start in which he’s had less than 200 at-bats i don’t see why he’d be ranked so lowly. And even then it was his first professional baseball after injury & it wasn’t as if he was completely over-matched, he put up a decent OBP (albeit aided with a few HBP), even if he didn’t hit for much power, he didn’t have a terrible K/BB and he improved over time.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 6:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's all about expectations
I think a HS player drafted that high (and yes, I don’t think Sabean has a clue about hitters when he drafts, so perhaps I should ignore the draft position here) should do MUCH better in the Rookie League than Fairley did. We knew he had some kind of injury to begin with, but if we can presume he was healthy in the latter part of the season…..yes, there was some improvement. And if he had been drafted in the 5th or 6th round, I’d feel much better about him. But he wasn’t; and he wasn’t going to last that long. So it was a package deal – draft him approximately where he was chosen, and you get what you get. I’m just not impressed with what we got for that pick.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 6:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand being disappointed by how he did, but should expectations really determine how good a prospect he is? Would he be any better a prospect had he been drafted in the 5th or 6th round or would he just be less disappointing?
Also, whilst he did disappoint, i still find less than 200 at-bats to be too small to come to that much of a conclusion about. Next season, is obviously going to be an important year for him & will have a big impact on his prospect status.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 7:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh absolutely, it’s too early to make absolute assertions based on that sample size. But I’ve got to slot him somewhere; and I’m likely to have formed some kind of impression. He just strikes me as one of those guys who just never develops from “athlete” to “baseball player who can hit.” That’s my impression, and I can’t slot him in the top 20 when we have so many intriguing young pitchers. I could be way, way wrong. I actually hope I am. But that’s my opinion as of this moment.
Expectations always determine others’ impressions, particularly first impressions. If he keeps plugging away, and shows enough to not be released, and makes steady progress in the next four years, and becomes some kind of major leaguer in 2013, then this will all be forgotten, naturally.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
kyle?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 24, 2008 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
er...
Or his much less-heralded brother, Kyle. : )
How could I forget such a near-euphonious name?
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 4:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Scotty with a 2 vote lead!!!
I’ll go the CNN election coverage route and call it now.
by boonitez on Nov 23, 2008 10:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m a fan of eHIRE.com, barnes as a close 2nd
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 23, 2008 11:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and I like English and EME to get on the next poll
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 23, 2008 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
for the third straight poll, i’m going with wendell “hits it” fairley
i like the steady improvement in OBP, the raw power the scouts apparently see, and the athleticism that’s there for all to see. i’ve got a really good feeling about him.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 23, 2008 11:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Fairley
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 24, 2008 12:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Fairley, for the same reasons as Smoke on the Water.
Adrianza next.
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on Nov 24, 2008 1:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Going with Fairley again here, due to his upside & tools. Barnes/Crawford would probably be the next 2 after that.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 2:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Surkamp
As an addendum to my post, was wondering what people thought of Eric Surkamp & where he’ll fall? Drafted in the 6th round, he put up a poor ERA but decent peripherals in Short Season. Obviously not a suggestion for this spot, but wondered how people think he compares to the other pitchers.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 3:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t hate Surkamp, he’s probably the in the 2nd tier of pitchers drafted by the Giants this year. I’d definitely stick Barnes and King ahead of him.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cheers. I’d put Barnes & King ahead of him as well, just wondered whether people felt he’d be a candidate in the 15-20 range or more of a 20+ player.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 7:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Surkamp might eek himself into the 15-20 or he could just be a little past 20+. I’m not sure yet, I haven’t thought of the list much past 15.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it’s a case of thinking too far ahead, basically i was thinking he should be on the list of testers.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 7:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d probably have him on the poll before guys like Matos and Rohlinger.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, considering the vote support they’ve been getting, I was thinking of taking them off the poll for a bit.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 24, 2008 8:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Matos should definitely go, I’m just not a fan of him. Rohlinger is pretty “meh” but at least he plays a position that the Giants are really weak at.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they’re both ok prospects, but it’s difficult to peg where they’d be. I have a hard time rating any relief pitchers highly, because unless they’re going going to be a top closer, there upside is just so low comparitively & of course even major league relief pitchers are somewhat of an unknown quality.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 8:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rohlinger
I think rohlinger is just a case where the org overpromoted him and now he doesn’t look as good to the fans. This will probably keep him from getting significant votes until the 20+ range, mostly because we know more about rohlinger and as fans we’re more likely to look at other player and go “OMG, UPSIDE!”
Keep him off until poll #17, IMO
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 24, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
typo alert
other players
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 24, 2008 9:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Marcello..
Wouldn’t have gotten a poll up until later tonight too.
As for my vote, someone make a case for me. I’m leaning towards Fairley just because he’s a bigger name, and at this point in a prospect list that can be what you’re looking for even.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 24, 2008 3:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The first four are all pretty much alike, in that they all have tools but are drastically unproven. My vote goes to Barnes because he’s the only one who has done anything impressive in the pros to date.
The next four don’t have enough upside to worry about at this point. Maybe Tanner, if you’re a big believer in age vs. level, but that’s not the advantage for pitchers that it is for hitters.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 6:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats computer must be on the blink…..
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 6:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I assure you that my circuits are operating at 100% capacity!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 6:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Xan
Tell me why you (and so many others) are so high on Wendell, other than “he’s athletic.”
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 6:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not overly complicated, really. He’s got the best upside of anyone left on the board.
The Pucetas, Snyder, Tanner, and Martinez group at best could be back of the rotation starters. I like the Barnes, King, Surkamp pitching group but I’d probably stick them between 15-20.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And I just said “at best” someone can make fun of me now.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think his upside is higher than Crawford’s.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 24, 2008 8:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d say that Fairley has better tools than Crawford. Both are raw players.
Of the classic “5 Tools” I’d argue that Fairley has better power and running speed. Both look to be poor bets for hitting for average right now. I think they probably tie in fielding and arm strength. Both play premium defensive positions.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 8:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d also say that Fairley has a higher upside than Crawford. Both obviously play premium positions & have potentially defensively. I think Fairley’s got a tad more upside offensively though, although of course whether either reach it is a matter of debate.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don’t get the hype around wendell. He could be good, but his performance so far is more in the range of 18-20. I’d rather see him have at least a half a season of production before he goes this high. Granted, if he breaks out, he’ll jump into the top 10 immediately.
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 24, 2008 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that’s partially why you don’t always grade prospects by performance but also upside.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But if you’re talking about upside, then age relative to league is a huge factor, and Wendell is too old for the performance he gave at too low a level.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Nov 24, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll take age/level into consideration, but Wendell has been hurt since he signed. He was bound to get a late start. I still think he has the most upside of anyone left on our draft board.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he may have the most upside of anybody left, but that just doesn’t do it for me because I don’t view this as a list of “who has the most upside?” (And that’s despite me using that very criterion in picking AnVil as my #1! I see him as such an exception that I chose him there anyway.)
I’m looking to balance potential (upside) with probability; and of course we all view those probabilities very differently. For me, at this very moment, Wendell’s probability is so low that it doesn’t balance out his potential enough for me to list him above Barnes, King, Nicholson, or even Kieschnick (who I rate lower than most, apparently).
And like groug, I expected more from him in the league he was in. (dangling preposition – sorry).
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 24, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesse English
I’d like to see how the guy rates in the community in comparison with the finesse brigade.
135K 51BB 3.19 ERA in 135.1IP at San Jose A+ 2008. I think that is some big numbers for a guy pitching more than 50 innings for the first time as a pro.
Is he a lefty with a Plus Fastball? Or Too old™? I like him for the same reason I like Ishikawa this year. It seems like he is fulfilling the promise/excitement from a few years ago. Would we be more excited if the Giants had him under control for the next few year? His time is running out.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 24, 2008 6:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do you know how long the Giants can control English? I suck at transaction things.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And, I like him. His ’08 was pretty encouraging. That he threw over 100 innings for the first time in three seasons was also a big plus.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, as he’s now on the 40 man roster, i presume he’s under our control now, and has the standard option years. But then i’m not sure if he became a minor league free agent & whether that has any effect, as opposed to the standard 40-man roster addition.
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by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 7:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As I recall, his fastball is middling these days but he still has a good changeup. He, not Tanner, seems to me like the most likely guy to fill Noah Lowry’s shoes, right down to the inability to stay healthy.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 7:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think between injuries he might have lost some heat on his fastball but I saw a video of him pitching last season and I think he was topping out around 92mph. Baggs called his fastball “good” but that’s open to a lot of interpretation. I agree that health will be key for him. I’m guessing the Giants will start him in Connecticut next year.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think English is a decent prospect, although i tend to group the San Jose pitchers (Tanner, Snyder, Pucetas, English) together somewhat, which is probably unfair. Given the other prospects, i get the feeling that he may end up in relief, but that’s just a guess. I wonder if, as he’s an older prospect, they’ll consider skipping a level with him & have him start in Fresno. I don’t know whether that’s likely though & i previously wondered that about Pucetas as well.
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!
by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 7:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m fairley confident in my vote.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 24, 2008 7:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
SO WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Wendell...
he can fairley be called an OBP machine!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 24, 2008 7:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Is that a typo?
Or did Tanner really give up one home run in 117 IP at San Jose last year? That is remarkable.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on Nov 24, 2008 7:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea who to vote for. It would be just guessing at this point.
by oldjacket on Nov 24, 2008 8:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You voted for Ron Paul, didn’t you?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That seems to fit Ron Paul a lot better than it fits Al Franken. Al Franken is more like some sort of raccoon.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 24, 2008 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lizard People in 2012!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What? You’re saying I’m acting like an RPaul troll?
For a computer, you sure are mean.
Actually if one these prospects came out in favor of the gold standard, that would help, as I’d least know who not to vote for (other than Rohlinger).
by oldjacket on Nov 24, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
GOLD 4 CASH!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
voted Tanner cz he had consistent success in a league that usually favors hitters.
I looked for more Augusta pitchers to add to the ballot, but they’re like 24 and 25.
For San Jose, Brad Boyer is same age as Downs, and OPS was almost 100 higher, let’s get him on the ballot soon.
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
by foothillsfan on Nov 24, 2008 9:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m still down with eHire and his upside.
I thought everyone here was pretty down on Fairly. If he
tips in at or around 12, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
He’s got some powerhouse posters throwing their
support his way, so minds are being changed—or
opinions being reinforced.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 24, 2008 9:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Surprised by the Vote
I’m really surprised at the lack of support for Tanner right now but I’m even more surprised at the support for guys like Adrianza, who’s a player who intrigues me as much as anybody but at this point is frankly an unknown (which does make him exciting) other than that he plays good defense and he doesn’t really strike out. Rookie ball is a long way away and he didn’t blow away the competition (the same can be said about Fairley who was old for a high school senior when he was drafted and continued to be old for rookie ball once he made his debut this year.)
I’m not down on these guys because they both seem to have nice upside but right now I feel that some other players’ polish outweighs their potential.
Also, what’s with the support for Crawford, scouts don’t think he’ll ever hit unless he completely reworks his swing not to mention that his skills reportedly regressed in college and he broke himself in his debut. He would rank just after the twenties or so for me.
by Keenlow on Nov 24, 2008 9:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m even more surprised at the support for guys like Adrianza, who’s a player who intrigues me as much as anybody but at this point is frankly an unknown
It worked for Rafael Rodriguez, granted his contract and interest from other teams has impact on our perceptions as well.
Also, what’s with the support for Crawford, scouts don’t think he’ll ever hit […]
Come on Crawford supporters…come on over to the eHire camp!
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 24, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m hoping the shortstop vote will be split in the next round and Scott Barnes will take the prize.
Seriously, folks — I know Barnes wasn’t at Augusta very long, but while he was there, he outpitched Bumgarner. We neet to be taking him more seriously.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Si
Skippy is 6’3" LHP with four pitches and performed very well in his debut. A possible Tidrow Fastracker?
by wilriv21 on Nov 24, 2008 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The scouting report (in the OP) says:
He throws a high 80’s, low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a change.
Then you say:
Skippy is 6’3" LHP with four pitches
Is his 4th pitch a variation on his fastball or is there another pitch?
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 24, 2008 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He also throws the slowball.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There’s the high 80s fastball and the low 90s fastball. Duh.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Got some info (maybe bad?) from BaseballEvolution.com report.
Listed Skippy Barnes #7 on my Top 10 list based on his fine 2008 season and especially his performance with Augusta.
by wilriv21 on Nov 24, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you have him breaking your top 10? Or is he a 10-15 guy for you? I like Barnes a lot, too.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
9 or 10, duking it out with Kieschnick.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I must be real crazy
Because I’ve been voting for him since #6 (which is where I have him in my personal Top 10).
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 24, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Roger, you’re crazy.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you provide me with the statistical analysis backing up that claim?
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 24, 2008 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1 + 1 = You’re Nuts.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do you prefer him to Sosa, for instance?
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There 6 and 7 for me. I suppose being a lefty elevates Barnes over Sosa in a close heat. I do like Sosa’s fastball but as of yet I don’t know that we’ve seen any other plus tools in his kit. And I worry a lot that his minor league success is really limited to 10 games in the Sally. He got hit hard when he moved up to the Cal league that year, and then of course ’08 was a lost season.
Clearly the Giants themselves didn’t think that highly of him prior his half season in Augusta (and they have clearly shown over the past few years that they can recognize pitching potential when they see it). He signed at a fairly old age for a dominican. They didn’t bring him to the states until he was 20 (when he had decent numbers in the AZL, great K ratios but he did get hit alot) and he was targeted for a return to the complex league in ‘07 until a last minute injury caused a need in Augusta. I don’t know. There’s something slightly flash in the pan in his history that makes me rein in my enthusiasm for him somehow.
Of course, as long as he keeps the big fastball, he can learn enough about pitching to be able to be an effective big league reliever. But Barnes seems to have a better package of stuff plus left-handiness to give him the edge for me.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 24, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm… “they are 6 and 7 for me.” Jeez and I have advanced English degrees and everything.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 24, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the lack of votes for Barnes indicates that he’s not taken seriously (although he might not be with some people) so much as that their are other prospects that are liked as well.
I mean, i’m thought i was one of the bigger Barnes fan, but i haven’t voted for him yet as there are others who i chose in the top ten (i wouldn’t have voted for Ishikawa or Pucetas yet) And i don’t think it’s a slight to class him as the fourth best pitching prospect (Behind Bumgarner, Alderson & Sosa) in a system which has loads of pitching.
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!
by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rodriguez
Yeah, I also don’t understand the Rodriguez vote, nice reported upside, but scouts don’t like his hittability (at least not yet) and he hasn’t even made his professional debut yet so there are no numbers to back up his supposed tools.
by Keenlow on Nov 24, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tanner
There is a Q and A up on SJGiants.com with Tanner.
http://www.sjgiants.com//ArDisplay.aspx?ID=1670&SecID=27
When asked who in the majors he would be compared to, he said Cole Hamels, although he admitted to not throwing as hard.
by nelson95 on Nov 25, 2008 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fairley
I’ll probably vote for Crawford next time.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 24, 2008 9:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Crawford
and then Mr. Wendell
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 24, 2008 10:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I voted Adrianza
And for future considerations, how about Edwin Quirarte?
His college numbers don’t particularly jump out at me, though his pro numbers look good (especially that K rate), and he’s going to be a career reliever (though I think that Aaron King will likely be one too), but, according to Keith Law, Quirarte’s got “big-time sink on his fastball and an improving splitter” and I think the guy could move relatively quickly through the system. I’d probably consider him for the 17-18 slot.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 24, 2008 10:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think at this point, it would be a good idea to have as many options on the polls as possible. There are about 15 guys, at least, that I rank above Rohlinger, and everyone can probably say that about a different player.
by Grant on Nov 24, 2008 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds good. After we get past Adrianza/Crawford/Fairley, my list will probably have ten or fifteen straight pitchers, because you never know where the next Rod Beck or Jonathan Sanchez or Scott Linebrink or Sergio Romo is going to come from.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Next 15 on list
After Fairley, Adrianza, Crawford, I also have about 15 players before Rohlinger, including about thirteen pitchers with Neal and Culberson the only non-pitchers.
by nelson95 on Nov 24, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also really like Quirarte, for now.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 24, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
another issue i was wondering about is this: who would be more valuable: an average high-leverage reliever who only pitches 70-80 innings per season or an average 5th starter who pitches ~160 innings per season?
there’s probably a statistical way to measure it. if only there was some random computer that spammed this site….
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 24, 2008 10:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
there’s probably a statistical way to measure it. if only there was some random computer that spammed this site….
Yeah, where is this nerd.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You never answered the question bucket of bolts.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 24, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
the crude measurements of “leverage” put the maximum for a 80 inn season around 2.0. So 80 inn of closing at 2.0 leverage == 160 innings at 1.0 leverage. So if the pitchers prevented runs equally, these seasons would be equal.
Using pLI from Fangraph, the top 10 relievers (>50 IP) had leverage indices 1.9-2.54 (K-Rod). If you go out to 80 innings, there are only about 10 relievers. At 70+ IP, the top 10 pLI range from 1.46 – 2.0 (Salamon Torres!!!)
To answer your question more directly, you would have to look up an average reliever’s stats vs. an average starters, etc. But I can say that it would have to be a reliever with league-leading leverage index.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Nov 24, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i was thinking more about an average 5th starter (who would be below average but still above replacement level) v. an average high leverage reliever (like maybe LaTroy Hawkins?) because i think Pucetas, English, Martinez and Co. are likely 5th’s at best while Barnes, King, Quirarte, Matos and Co. have the ceiling of high leverage setup men at best.
I also don’t really know what to make of Clayton Tanner
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 25, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Testers
Add Thomas Neal, Jesse English, Charlie Culberson, Wilber Bucardo, Kelvim Pichardo, Waldis Juaquin…
and, of course, Hector Sanchez.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 24, 2008 2:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So I guess Ryan Rohlinger doesn’t post here.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Nov 24, 2008 2:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The next few rounds are going to be interesting. Shall we just start the Adrianza/Barnes/Crawford/Tanner mega-runoff now?
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I dunno. I bet the Fairley vote flips to a single option, rather than splitting between the four.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 24, 2008 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
e-Hire
I’ll answer just so I can be proven wrong. The hype around e-hire is pretty big about now. Although really any of the four you mention, or even Joseph Martinez or Jesse English might get a chunk of votes. I just don’t think we can presume a 4 way tie. But then….
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 25, 2008 6:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don’t really understand all the Adrianza love. He’s still very far away (I believe), and hasn’t shown much offensively. Of course, his age means he still has time, but I wouldn’t put him ahead of guys who’ve had success already, and have decent upside. I prefer Barnes, Tanner, English, maybe even Rohlinger and Downs.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 24, 2008 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He has a major-league glove, which is a rare thing. Even if he only hits like, say, Orlando Cabrera or Jason Bartlett, that’s an average-to-good player, depending on just how good his fielding is.
by Evan on Nov 24, 2008 7:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
still
When was the last time our system turned out a Cabrera quality hitter? We haven’t had many recently, and I don’t see why a 19 year old with 300 at-bats is the guy we’re looking to. He’s hit about .250 and isn’t projected to have much power, IIRC, so he doesn’t have great potential and he hasn’t done anything much so far. I just don’t see why he’s ranked over some of the other hitters on the testers list, for instance, who at least have shown something, and probably have similar, if not higher, ceilings.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 24, 2008 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They have shown something, but mostly what they have shown is that they’re not going to be good enough. Adrianza still has hope.
by Evan on Nov 25, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fairley?
Maybe?
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Nov 24, 2008 5:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Fairley
But at this point I feel like I’m guessing. Not like earlier, when I wasn’t guessing, even though I"ve never seen any of these people actually play in a game before except for Gillapsie, and he doesn’t count. I don’t know why, but he doesn’t.
by Mrbasepaul on Nov 25, 2008 9:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
He doesn’t because unless you are a scout, or have the skills of a scout, seeing a guy play doesn’t mean much.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 25, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All You Fairley Fans Are Nuts
He doesn’t even belong anymore in the top 20.
by giantsrainman on Nov 25, 2008 1:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
On what do you base this?
You’re saying that in a season in which he improved his hitting by about 40 points a month (albeit from a poor May), Wendell Fairley has dropped from the #29 overall pick to not even being a top 20 prospect in his own organization?
by sharksrog on Nov 27, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Call me results-oriented, but...
…I voted for Martinez, because I’m results-oriented. Like you just said.
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..." Well, apparently he succeeded on that last go 'round.
by multiphasic on Nov 25, 2008 3:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hey, results-oriented!!!
How you doing? Glad to hear it. Ok, bye-bye.
/hangs up
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Nov 25, 2008 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad Goofus.
No. No.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 25, 2008 6:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why Fairley?
I’m not saying vote for Fairley, but even before I saw someone denigrate Fairley, I thought I would add this FYI on Fairley.
Unfortunately, his stats are totally dominated by small samples due to him starting the season late due to an injury.
Still, there was some interesting bits of info. For one, while he started out slow, he ended well:
June: .214/.273/.286/.559, 28 AB, 0 W, 7 K, .286 BABIP
July: .256/.368/.322/.690, 90 AB, 10 W, 18 K, .310 BABIP
Aug: .297/.475/.392/.867, 74 AB, 18 W, 10 K, .333 BABIP
No power (his FB% fell from month to month), but he clearly has a clue at the plate, got his strikeout rate to about 15% by August, which is what good hitters can do, then almost doubled his K’s, which only the best hitters can do.
He’s also not a good hitter against LHP (he bats L, throws R), so that hurts his batting line as well. However, his strikeout and walks there also suggest that he should be able to have a much better batting line against LHP given better luck.
So there are a lot of good evidence that Fairley is a good hitter, but hopefully it was that injury he recovered from early in the season that sapped his power (that is, he rushed back too soon). Shades of Marcus Sanders? Perhaps someone can illuminate on his injury. But right now he’s an extreme groundball hitter, nothing like the power hitter he said he was when he was drafted.
Still, if he’s that good a hitter, as August suggests (very few can draw walks nearly double their strikeouts, while not striking that much), he can get on base a ton, steal 2B a lot with his speed, and score from other’s hits.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 25, 2008 10:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm. I generally put no stock in microsample splits, but the change in those k/w numbers is striking.
All in all, Fairley’s batting line is just weird. He’s supposed to be a raw prospect with plus power, but instead he hit like a crafty veteran who can barely get the ball out of the infield.
by Evan on Nov 26, 2008 6:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s supposed to be a raw prospect with plus power, but instead he hit like a crafty veteran who can barely get the ball out of the infield.
Perfect! He’ll fit right in.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 26, 2008 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On the Giants internal prospect list
#1
UNTOUCHABLE.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 26, 2008 8:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let’s not forget, however, that at 20 he was frankly too old for that league, and as a high school All American he should have been too advanced for it (it’s originally conceived as a shletered environment for teenaged dominicans/latinos in their first American experience). A couple weeks there in ’07 might have been in line for an ’07 1st round pick, but a full(half) season in ’08 suggests retarded development right out of the bat, even before you look at the numbers.
Sabean said at soem point last summer on KNBR that Fairley had left XST not because of injury but because of “personal issues” he had to clear up, probably related to that run in with the law he had his senior year.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 26, 2008 7:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What he said.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 26, 2008 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yabbott
Totally agree that he was too old, but teams often do that for veteran players coming off a recovery from surgery and it was his first extended pro experience as well. As you can see from the numbers, he was affected initially by something. Plus, he was originally scheduled to start the season at Augusta, so whatever held him back did affect him in some way, whether it be simply rust or whatever.
And not to be too elitest, but he didn’t sound like he came from the best environment growing up, he probably needed some sheltering and training for learning how to live on his own, and all that stuff that many of us learned while growing up. His upbringing does not sound like the typical American experience.
And I didn’t mean to say that any of the negatives listed above are not valid, I just felt that a balanced view should be presented, it was not all negative news on his part, and that there are some positives we can take as fans from his performance.
Obviously, we’ll have a better look at what he can do in 2009.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 1, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Moving on to #13
It’s time to move on to the next poll. In the future, I would like to recommend that the moderators end the poll early if someone has an overwhelming lead like Fairley does here.
by nelson95 on Nov 26, 2008 8:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Enh, what’s the rush. A lot of these threads tend to have some of their best discussion toward the bottom. And we still have plenty of time to get through forty or fifty “prospects” before spring training starts.
by Evan on Nov 26, 2008 9:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think things lose a little steam if the poll sits too long. 1 day is too short and anything over 2 days is too long, so somewhere in that range is ideal in my opinion. I have also been voting on the poll on Minorleagueball.com and have been enjoying it.
by nelson95 on Nov 26, 2008 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Surely you jest
get through forty or fifty "prospects" before spring training starts
by wilriv21 on Nov 26, 2008 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The "moderators" aren't really involved in this.
Yes I am a moderator and I’m helping marcello, but this was his idea and he’s running it still. We’ve got a long time to do this, and we’re probably not going to forty or fifty prospects, I’m not sure we could even name forty or fifty minor leaguers in our system.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 26, 2008 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding? When are we getting to Julio Cordido on this list anyway? I saving up all my best stuff for that post.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 26, 2008 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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