ZiPS Projections for the 2009 Giants - From Baseball Think Factory
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about 3 years ago
Grant Brisbee
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Also, Barry Zito projects to be better than Barry Zito right now. I don’t believe it.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 22, 2008 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Who would have guessed that 2-years ago when Zito just signed we’d kill for a 4.37 ERA season from him.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
I need a favor...
I dont live in the area, but can some one during the 2009 season dedicate a boo-bashing directed towards Zito for me? I refuse to boo any Giants when watching them at Dodger stadium. I would really appreciate it!
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
..he could afford to buy some brass now, since he wasnt born with any
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Some people definitely thought he was going to get worse, but I don’t think anybody realized how rapid and extreme his decline would be.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 22, 2008 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
I drink beer because I’m afraid of the quality of my local water! That’s why I drink so much beer!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Penis joke.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
It’s funny because WalrusMan is a penis joke.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 22, 2008 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Can anyone give me a reason why Taschner should be on next years team? He’s a bullpen arm that I wish the Giants would cut ties with.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
I don’t think there’s much of a chance he’s on the 2009 Giants. I still don’t mind him, though. He’ll have a good year somewhere.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 22, 2008 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
I hope you’re right. Hinshaw is walky and Geno throws as hard as Zito does, but I’d rather give both of them chances than Taschner.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
maybe...
we should reconsider. If He is gone we will not be able to admire his wife in the stands!
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t understand why Schierholtz is listed as a first baseman.
Or why the second coming of Jesus Denker is on it at all.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Not sure either..
Schierholtz is a natural outfielder. During JUCO ball he hit 3 HRs against my team and had one robbed in one game. The other two times we played him we walked him 6 or 7 times…
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
Schierholtz is actually a natural 3B who didn’t play well enough there but had a good arm so they stuck him in RF.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How?
When in LL? If you aren’t good enough to start at a position in JUCO, that does not make it a natural position.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
No actually..
He was a 3B in 2004 with the Giants, in Hagerstown (A) and with San Jose (A+). That year he played a little OF at San Jose, but was at 3B ~70% of the time. After that he transitioned to RF because of a strong arm but from what everyone can decipher, “not soft hands.”
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
That’s the position he plays in nature.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 22, 2008 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
I have Schierholtz “primarily” as rightfielder, but I felt the need to also include him with the first basemen for the simple reason that Schierholtz is hardly guaranteed anything and as a decent hitter who isn’t exactly going to be in center or short and who isn’t 5’8", playing time at first is a possibility.
So you rule out center and short...
Third is still an option then?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Yeah, it’s pretty close and in previous years, ZiPS, Marcel, CHONE, etc. have all stacked up very well against PECOTA.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
i think the differences between a lot of the projection systems are minimal.
http://www.tangotiger.net/forecastFinal2.html
my reading comprehension might be off though
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
and i stumbled across this the other day, from before i started reading THT. it’s a three=part series too (the above link is a 2-part article)
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/projection-roundtable-part-3/
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
They really think Angel could almost lead the team in bombs as an 18 year old??? Thats hard to believe
damnit grant
beat me to it…
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
i like how Timmy’s projected for 32 games but only 31 starts. oh Bochy…..
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Le sigh
Barry Zito - Mildly half-OK! Sometimes.
by Revolution1 on Nov 22, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
Also fuck that Torre commercial that it never rains in LA.
Grrrrrrr…
Barry Zito - Mildly half-OK! Sometimes.
by Revolution1 on Nov 22, 2008 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
It rains here 1 day a year, and fires burn every other day
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
Sandoval?
Their projection of our hitters is a bit depressing. I think Winn and Rowand are about right. I see a few places I’m more optimistic than they are. I am expecting better than .284/.312/.455 from Pablo next year- I’m thinking somewhere in the .300/.340/.460 range, and I could see him going higher. I think Pablo’s for real. Opposing pitchers were talking about how good his plate coverage is, so I think he’ll continue to smack the ball around the field. I think FLew’s line is too low, also. I’m expecting around (maybe higher) .280/.360/.420 from Flew. They have his SLG right, I think, but his avg and OBP should be higher.
Also, I think Velez could produce a better line than that, by a bit, though I have no confidence that he will. But he actually hit around .300 in Sept., so it’s just a matter of if that was variance, or whether he turned a corner with his hitting.
Pablo’s OBP is probably going to be very BA driven, meaning for him to have a .300/.340/.460 line, he’s going to have to walk a lot more than he did last year and I’m not sure that’s going to happen. I can’t see him getting a .340 OBP without hitting for a much higher BA. He probably needs to hit around .320 or so to get a OBP that high.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Pablo won’t be beating out many grounders. So since he is a free-swinger, he will definitely need to take some more pitches to get his OBP up.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Beating out grounders
Don’t sell Pablo short. The guy actually runs pretty well.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
His athleticism reminds me of Fernando Valenzuela. First time I saw Fat Freddie thought he was just another large pitcher who might have trouble fielding his position. Turned out Valenzuela was a very good athlete.
Ok, he may be athletic for a big guy...
but, he is still a big guy with below average speed. Not to put Pablo down in any way, i would love to see him beat out a grounder to the 6-hole, which I am sure he will from time to time, but being realistic, he will get his OBP up by being more selective and hitting liners from gap to gap.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 23, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
he will get his OBP up by being more selective and hitting liners from gap to gap.
Well, yeah. My point was that he his speed is deceptive. I have no idea was his home-to-first time is, but I think “below average” might be unfair. He reminds me of a running back that used to play for the Chargers; Natrone Means. He was a 5’10" 250 bowling ball who could scoot.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
He seems to have heart and the desire to play hard. But i do stand by the “below average speed comment”. If he hits like the way he is this fall, then his OBP will be up regardless due to an occasional “unintentional” IBB and IBB’s.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 24, 2008 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
I just think he’s going to draw some intentional walks. 40 points higher than his avg may be a bit optimistic, but I think he’s going to be the only feared hitter in the lineup, unless we sign somebody. And unless ‘somebody’ is Teixeira, Pablo still may be the most feared hitter in the lineup.
Also, it’ll be interesting to see what Lansford does with Pablo. I could see the org trying to make Pablo more patient, with the hope that while his avg. may drop, being more selective will raise his OBP and SLG. Pablo is really young-I don’t think his batting style is set in stone yet.
It saddens me that the Giants most feared batter will be a guy with 3 career home runs and 145 career AB’s
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Could an IBB guy over the course of the year if he shows consistent pop. Who will there be to protect him? The almighty Aaron Rowand?
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
But for his obp to be significantly affected by the IBB, he’d probably need a lot more than that. Not many guys get very many IBB, at least enough to change their obp by .015 or so, and the ones that do are mostly better than Pablo.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
It's projecting him to be basically a league average hitter
at age 22. That’s pretty good, given that of the projection systems, ZiPS tends to be one of the more conservative ones, regressing heavily.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
it's a little conservative maybe
but you have to consider the other end of the curve too. If you read the spotlite, he has a 23% of hitting .300 or better and a 17% of hitting <.250. (can ignore OBP because his AVG=OBP, pretty much). So .280 is about the average, so that’s what the program spits out.
To put this another way, you have to consider the chance of him cratering and getting sent back down as well.
Lewis, I assume is getting nicked for his obscene BABIP, which is (probably?) strongly regressed by Zips.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
those playing time projections
are just for reference for the counting stats. I mean, how could a computer program know the minds of Bochy and Sabean?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
A few comments
Travis Denker 2b 23 .226 .297 .340 135 477 46 108 22 1 10 50 45 82 5 2 75 Av
What, are they to cheer us up or something?
Emmanuel Burriss# ss 24 .254 .307 .294 123 425 58 108 12 1 1 31 29 46 39 13 59 Vg
Ewww. Wouldn’t a slugging percentage below .300 rip the fabric of existence?
Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 6 5 82 Fr
If Frandsen does this his career is over, right?
Jonathan Sanchez* 26 4.28 6 6 28 18 103.0 97 49 9 53 98
If Sanchez pitches 10 games out of the bullpen…I’ll…I’ll…take a really angry bite out of my lunch.
Tim Alderson 20 4.34 8 10 27 27 145.0 149 70 17 46 104
This might be the only projection that actually fills me with warm feelings.
Clayton Tanner* 21 4.64 8 12 27 25 130.0 147 67 10 46 51
Although, this one’s kind of interesting. I wonder if the same type of deal that is giving Zito such decent projections is involved here with Tanner.
Jeremy Affeldt* 30 3.44 2 2 71 0 68.0 63 26 5 25 61
Osiris Matos 24 3.76 3 2 50 0 67.0 66 28 5 24 45
Brian Wilson 27 3.77 4 3 61 0 62.0 57 26 3 34 54
Keiichi Yabu 40 3.86 3 3 48 0 63.0 60 27 4 27 48
Sergio Romo 26 4.02 4 4 51 0 65.0 63 29 9 19 51
Sign CC and get a good offense…hmm…with this bullpen the Giants would have a pretty good team…
sadlol
Merkin Valdez 27 5.33 2 3 29 6 54.0 58 32 7 30 37
This seems kind of pessimistic doesn’t it?
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Unless Frandsen has turned into a slick fielding SS or the 2nd coming of Mark Ellis at 2B then yeah, he's done
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2nd Coming of Mark Ellis...? HA
What are you talking about? that would be devastating if he was the “2nd coming of Mark Ellis”. I would hope the expectations of the Frandsen is better that those #‘s of Mark Ellis. OK, Ok he he hit 19 HR in 2007, and .316 BA in 2005…woopdy frickin’ do! Coming off a season where he was .030 points below his career average, lets hope to god Frandsen will be much, much better than Ellis
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 23, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
If Frandsen becomes what Mark Ellis is overall, we’ll be extremely lucky. Mark Ellis is a very good player. Offense isn’t everything.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
He is descent at best. If we needed descent, then we should start Velez, and capitalize on his speed.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 23, 2008 6:52 PM PST up reply actions
No offense, but Velez isn’t even in the same neighborhood of a player like Mark Ellis. Ellis is much more than just a decent player.
And I think you meant ‘decent’ and not ‘descent’, the latter meaning going downward.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Farther. The only way I can imagine it is how some misguided souls on this blog would feel if they were listening to a 24 hour RUSH station.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
SCRIPPS
None taken. Yes, I was not SCRIPPS material when I was young. I just do not think the Giants should strive for Ellis’s production from Frandsen. I do agrees that Ellis is better than Velez but not worth a 5mil 2008 salary. Frandsen’s ceiling is much lower than say Brandon Phillips (who is also cheaper than Ellis).
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 23, 2008 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Thank god for google.
I had no idea there was a spelling bee named Scripps. I thought you were saying you weren’t destined for a women’s college in Claremont, CA.
Ellis’s value is all D. pay no attention to his offense. And yeah, I think he’s worth the money.
For the record, Ellis’ offense has fluctuated between pretty good and slightly below average. With his defense, that is a good to great player.
To Giant among Angels, he’s absolutely worth $5 million a year. He’s probably worth closer to $10 million.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
I agree, I would definitely say that Giant among Angels is not paying enough attention to Ellis’s defensive value, which is great.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
OK Ok, You all obviously see him play 99% more than I do. I went to an Angels v A’s game last season here in Anaheim (dont worry, … company tickets), and i was not that all impressed by Ellis. Later in the year I saw Ian Kinsler, and WOW he was an exciting explosive player. I know he had 18 E’s in 08 (compared to Ellis’ 4) plate. We need a legitimate threat at the plate.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 24, 2008 8:52 PM PST up reply actions
Watching a single game isn’t a good way to determine how good or bad a player is.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
How so? What do you think scouts do to determine the level a prospects abilities are at? Or do they give them multiple opportunities to produce by showing up to game after game after game? All professional scouting will now be changed because of your profound statement.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 27, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah
But I think his sheer awesomeness made up for the crappiness of his baseball playing.
The only thing Manny has going, really, is looking like LL Cool J.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
They sell a balm for cantankerous sores.
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 24, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
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