Even more projections, Giants ZiPS: Pablo "Pudge" Sandoval?

by iamawesomer on Nov 22, 2008 10:02 AM PST Comment 48 comments

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/

From the title you can see the highlight is Pablo Sandoval, who has a .284/.313/.455 projection with 17 HR. That ISO of .171 would put him in the level right below Soto and McCann in terms of catcher power. This is why it's imperative for Sandoval to stick behind the plate if possible, where his offense projects as "very good" in ZiPS as opposed to "Fair" at 1B and "Average" at 3B.

But you have to love the top comp of Ivan Rodriguez. Now granted a good amount of Pudge's Hall of Fame Career value is tied up in his defense, but he's still a career 110 OPS+ hitter and safe to say if Pablo can replicate that while sticking behind the plate he will have a very nice and long career. His other comp is former Giant Benito Santiago

The rest of the offense is predictably pretty bad, no one else who will play in the infield is even listed at "average' at their position. The OF is average, and the Nate Schierholtz projection is really good (104 OPS+), will he finally get some playing time this year?

The pitching is of course outstanding, but look who slots in listed 4th in the Starter list. These are major league projections, which makes Alderson's projection pretty insane. An above average ERA for a 20 year old? Very promising.

I'm not sure why Romo's HR rate is so high, but that's the main reason his ERA isn't very good/so high compared to last year. I don't really agree with that one, but most of the other bullpen projections look about right.

Any projections anyone have any real problems/agree strongly with?

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Man, those are the nicest looking Giants ZIPs I’ve seen in quite some time.

TI’s projection is pretty ugly though.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Nov 22, 2008 10:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

And owch Burriss.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Nov 22, 2008 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

GREG MADDUX COMP FOR CAIN.

GREG MADDUX: THIRD STARTER AT BEST.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Nov 22, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

GREG MADDUX

NO SWING THRU STUFF

by rotorueter on Nov 22, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't

Cain like 2 greg madduxes (madducci?) and a gold fish?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?

by zenbitz on Nov 23, 2008 6:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The day I swapped my Cain for 2 Madduxes and a goldfish.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2008 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes?

And what happened?

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by WalrusMan on Nov 23, 2008 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I got tired of my madduxes and the goldfish, and so I tried to go and trade them back, but my friend who I had swapped with had swapped Cain for a gorilla mask, so I gave him the madduxes and the goldfish for the gorilla mask and went to go find his friend who traded him the gorilla mask so I could trade it back for my Cain, but it turns out that he had also traded Cain, and it went on like that for a while.

I got him back in the end.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2008 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the TI projection is pretty close to what he’ll actually do: .242/.300/.431 I think his ceiling is a league average 1B, which isn’t that great.

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a hard time seeing Bowker as a better (or similar) hitter than TI in the majors.

/looks at ZIPs suspiciously.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If I had to let one go in some Denkerish roster move, I’d let Ishikawa go. Bowker isn’t going to be as productive in the short-term, but I think his ceiling is higher.

by Grant on Nov 22, 2008 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

For oldjacket, why do you think that? I think they are pretty similar hitters and Bowker’s minor league track record is a little better than TI’s.

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Minor League BB: TI – 13 Bowker – 7%.

Major league pitchers already know that you don’t have to throw Bowker a strike, and he didn’t show any signs of improving last year.

Both of their track records are pretty spotty. Really, Bowker had one good year in AA and one good year in the low minors. TI had one good year in San Jose and last year. Neither of them seem likely to hit for a high average in the majors with all those Ks, but Ishikawa is the one who looks like he could still be valuable with a low BA.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry that’s supposed to be BB%

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Line drives

John Bowker hit a TON of line drives last season. I don’t think he hit in the best of luck. Still, to be an everyday player, he needs to be able to hit lefties — and his bat probably will play better in the outfield than at first.

by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2008 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I would actually take the over on that.

Not that I think TI is great, or zips is crap, but there is some small chance that he has mentally turned his game around, and Zips is overweighting his 2006-2007 seasons (which are wretched compared to 04-*05-08).

* 2005 gets a star for repeating SJ.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is that his progression has not been smooth, although I did not measure the variance or anything.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?

by zenbitz on Nov 24, 2008 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, LOLHinshaw. 33 walks in 40 IP, seems about right.

/deer head
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 10:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

9 HR for Romo!

ZIPs is no Romosexual.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 10:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

ZIPs FAIL

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Nov 24, 2008 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

9 HR for Romo!

Are they all as a starter or do some come in pinch hitting appearances?

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Nov 24, 2008 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Apologies for the thunder ganking, but I was working on a front-page mini-discussion starter when I saw this.

(ganks thunder)

by Grant on Nov 22, 2008 10:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Got to love the phrase " Thinning the Ortmeire Cloud"!

The Sanchez numbers look encouraging to me. But if he is getting over a third of his appearances from the Pen this coming season I think we can safely safe the Starter experiment is over. Man that Yo -Yoing in ‘06 &’07 plays havoc with Zips don’t it?

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 22, 2008 10:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think that IP projection is just based on his workload the last couple of years, when he didn’t throw all that many innings.

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by groug on Nov 22, 2008 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Its not so much the IP as much the G vs GS numbers.

I understand its darn hard to predict a player in Dirty’s position but I was just going on the supposition the projection pans out how I would probably view a season were he starts 18 times and relieves 10.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 22, 2008 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it's safe to say

the starter experiment is over. If he is not going to start it’s a huge mistake by the Giants IMO. Until he ran out of gas last season he was effective. Some of his starts were even brilliant. I wouldn’t mind starting the season with him in the pen, but want him moved to rotation fairly early.

Best case scenario is: Sanchez starts in the pen, a healthy Lowry is showcased and then traded in May, Sanchez moves back into the rotation with his stamina increased and is awesome for the rest of the year.

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by marklar on Nov 22, 2008 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on your summation of last season.

I think he just flat ran out of gas from mid July on. That said I think if he starts in the pen 1 of 2 things happen.

1) he does well out of the Pen and Boulder Skull will ride him in the late innings tell his arm falls off.
Or
2) He starts poorly and Boulder Skull pretty much does not use him for weeks at a time.

Thus I want him starting from the get go. The other thing is how is the team ever going to find out if the has grown past 100-115 IP if they don’t try it again this year?

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 22, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes,

but it is still a big jump from his 3 good months last year to a whole season. I could see him extending his season to 4-5 months. He had 158 IP last year, but he was good only for the first 100-110. If he could pitch another 160 or so innings, but be better for more than 100-110 of them I would be happy with the progress. He will be 26 next season so it’s not beyond expectation that he will be more effective, but I wouldn’t push him too hard.

Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.

by marklar on Nov 22, 2008 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we agree on that summationas well..

I guess what I am saying is if he is healthy to start the season and isn’t in the rotation I doubt he will have much a chance at 150 IP next season. And if he doesn’t get that chance next season I doubt the Giants will ever give him that chance in the coming seasons.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 22, 2008 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Sanchez doesn't start the year in the rotation

heads need to roll imo

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by iamawesomer on Nov 22, 2008 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sanchez threw the most innings of his career, 23 more than ’05 in augusta. he started 13 games in ’06, then 9 in ’07. the giants should have shut him down in july or august. i just hope he stays healthy for 180 innings this year.

Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.

by jasomack on Nov 23, 2008 12:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I could not agree more

I was a little dismayed that the Giants brought him back last year.

Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.

by marklar on Nov 24, 2008 11:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Expect big things from El Guapo in 2009

A stronger more experienced Jonathan Sanchez should appear in 2009. Hopefully he will be pitching for San Francisco.

by wilriv21 on Nov 24, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully, yes

I think it would be a big mistake for the Giants to trade Sanchez.

Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.

by marklar on Nov 24, 2008 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Periera

I played with Nick P. when he was a shortstop during HS summer ball, and against him during JUCO ball when he started pitching seriously. He seems to have flashes of brilliance, but if his Slider is not working or he can’t control it then those numbers will be accurate. Do you guys think he will start out in Connecticut this year?

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by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Nick..

Always came on pretty strong for me in Baseball Mogul.

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by WalrusMan on Nov 22, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Starting in CT would be a major step backward for him. It’s Fresno or bust.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 23, 2008 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Even though it’s minor, I don’t see Ochoa or Bocock having more HR’s in a season than Burriss.
At least Burriss can actually square the ball up.

by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 22, 2008 12:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Bocock

insert joke involving “Bocock,” “Square,” and “Ball” here

Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.

by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 22, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Insert

Insert joke involving “Bocock” and “Insert” here

Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.

by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 22, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

*Insert joke involving “Bocock” here *

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 23, 2008 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

insert "Bocock" here

Adopted Giant: Aaron King

Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat

by baetown415 on Nov 23, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

-20 for recycling the already recycled “Pudge” nickname.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 24, 2008 12:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

^
|
|
|
Didn’t RTFA

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?

by zenbitz on Nov 24, 2008 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Did read the article. I’m just not a fan of “Pudge” for anyone but Carlton Fisk.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 25, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

/ Stmaped Approved

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 25, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

stamped even…

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!

by daveinexile on Nov 25, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

we can call him “Fudge”

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 25, 2008 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Taken

I realize this nickname has already been taken in football, but Fudge Hammer seems to fit for Pablito. Gotta admit though that it’s almost impossible to outdo Little Money.

by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2008 11:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs