Even more projections, Giants ZiPS: Pablo "Pudge" Sandoval?
by iamawesomer on Nov 22, 2008 10:02 AM PST
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PrintFrom the title you can see the highlight is Pablo Sandoval, who has a .284/.313/.455 projection with 17 HR. That ISO of .171 would put him in the level right below Soto and McCann in terms of catcher power. This is why it's imperative for Sandoval to stick behind the plate if possible, where his offense projects as "very good" in ZiPS as opposed to "Fair" at 1B and "Average" at 3B.
But you have to love the top comp of Ivan Rodriguez. Now granted a good amount of Pudge's Hall of Fame Career value is tied up in his defense, but he's still a career 110 OPS+ hitter and safe to say if Pablo can replicate that while sticking behind the plate he will have a very nice and long career. His other comp is former Giant Benito Santiago
The rest of the offense is predictably pretty bad, no one else who will play in the infield is even listed at "average' at their position. The OF is average, and the Nate Schierholtz projection is really good (104 OPS+), will he finally get some playing time this year?
The pitching is of course outstanding, but look who slots in listed 4th in the Starter list. These are major league projections, which makes Alderson's projection pretty insane. An above average ERA for a 20 year old? Very promising.
I'm not sure why Romo's HR rate is so high, but that's the main reason his ERA isn't very good/so high compared to last year. I don't really agree with that one, but most of the other bullpen projections look about right.
Any projections anyone have any real problems/agree strongly with?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Man, those are the nicest looking Giants ZIPs I’ve seen in quite some time.
TI’s projection is pretty ugly though.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
And owch Burriss.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
GREG MADDUX COMP FOR CAIN.
GREG MADDUX: THIRD STARTER AT BEST.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Isn't
Cain like 2 greg madduxes (madducci?) and a gold fish?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
The day I swapped my Cain for 2 Madduxes and a goldfish.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2008 8:29 AM PST up reply actions
Yes?
And what happened?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
I got tired of my madduxes and the goldfish, and so I tried to go and trade them back, but my friend who I had swapped with had swapped Cain for a gorilla mask, so I gave him the madduxes and the goldfish for the gorilla mask and went to go find his friend who traded him the gorilla mask so I could trade it back for my Cain, but it turns out that he had also traded Cain, and it went on like that for a while.
I got him back in the end.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 23, 2008 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
I think the TI projection is pretty close to what he’ll actually do: .242/.300/.431 I think his ceiling is a league average 1B, which isn’t that great.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
I have a hard time seeing Bowker as a better (or similar) hitter than TI in the majors.
/looks at ZIPs suspiciously.
If I had to let one go in some Denkerish roster move, I’d let Ishikawa go. Bowker isn’t going to be as productive in the short-term, but I think his ceiling is higher.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 22, 2008 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
I agree.
For oldjacket, why do you think that? I think they are pretty similar hitters and Bowker’s minor league track record is a little better than TI’s.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
Minor League BB: TI – 13 Bowker – 7%.
Major league pitchers already know that you don’t have to throw Bowker a strike, and he didn’t show any signs of improving last year.
Both of their track records are pretty spotty. Really, Bowker had one good year in AA and one good year in the low minors. TI had one good year in San Jose and last year. Neither of them seem likely to hit for a high average in the majors with all those Ks, but Ishikawa is the one who looks like he could still be valuable with a low BA.
Line drives
John Bowker hit a TON of line drives last season. I don’t think he hit in the best of luck. Still, to be an everyday player, he needs to be able to hit lefties — and his bat probably will play better in the outfield than at first.
I would actually take the over on that.
Not that I think TI is great, or zips is crap, but there is some small chance that he has mentally turned his game around, and Zips is overweighting his 2006-2007 seasons (which are wretched compared to 04-*05-08).
* 2005 gets a star for repeating SJ.
Anyway, what I am trying to say is that his progression has not been smooth, although I did not measure the variance or anything.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
ZIPs FAIL
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Nov 24, 2008 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
Got to love the phrase " Thinning the Ortmeire Cloud"!
The Sanchez numbers look encouraging to me. But if he is getting over a third of his appearances from the Pen this coming season I think we can safely safe the Starter experiment is over. Man that Yo -Yoing in ‘06 &’07 plays havoc with Zips don’t it?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
I think that IP projection is just based on his workload the last couple of years, when he didn’t throw all that many innings.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Its not so much the IP as much the G vs GS numbers.
I understand its darn hard to predict a player in Dirty’s position but I was just going on the supposition the projection pans out how I would probably view a season were he starts 18 times and relieves 10.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
I don't think it's safe to say
the starter experiment is over. If he is not going to start it’s a huge mistake by the Giants IMO. Until he ran out of gas last season he was effective. Some of his starts were even brilliant. I wouldn’t mind starting the season with him in the pen, but want him moved to rotation fairly early.
Best case scenario is: Sanchez starts in the pen, a healthy Lowry is showcased and then traded in May, Sanchez moves back into the rotation with his stamina increased and is awesome for the rest of the year.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
I agree on your summation of last season.
I think he just flat ran out of gas from mid July on. That said I think if he starts in the pen 1 of 2 things happen.
1) he does well out of the Pen and Boulder Skull will ride him in the late innings tell his arm falls off.
Or
2) He starts poorly and Boulder Skull pretty much does not use him for weeks at a time.
Thus I want him starting from the get go. The other thing is how is the team ever going to find out if the has grown past 100-115 IP if they don’t try it again this year?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
Yes,
but it is still a big jump from his 3 good months last year to a whole season. I could see him extending his season to 4-5 months. He had 158 IP last year, but he was good only for the first 100-110. If he could pitch another 160 or so innings, but be better for more than 100-110 of them I would be happy with the progress. He will be 26 next season so it’s not beyond expectation that he will be more effective, but I wouldn’t push him too hard.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
I think we agree on that summationas well..
I guess what I am saying is if he is healthy to start the season and isn’t in the rotation I doubt he will have much a chance at 150 IP next season. And if he doesn’t get that chance next season I doubt the Giants will ever give him that chance in the coming seasons.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
If Sanchez doesn't start the year in the rotation
heads need to roll imo
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sanchez threw the most innings of his career, 23 more than ’05 in augusta. he started 13 games in ’06, then 9 in ’07. the giants should have shut him down in july or august. i just hope he stays healthy for 180 innings this year.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
I could not agree more
I was a little dismayed that the Giants brought him back last year.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
Expect big things from El Guapo in 2009
A stronger more experienced Jonathan Sanchez should appear in 2009. Hopefully he will be pitching for San Francisco.
Hopefully, yes
I think it would be a big mistake for the Giants to trade Sanchez.
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
Periera
I played with Nick P. when he was a shortstop during HS summer ball, and against him during JUCO ball when he started pitching seriously. He seems to have flashes of brilliance, but if his Slider is not working or he can’t control it then those numbers will be accurate. Do you guys think he will start out in Connecticut this year?
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on Nov 22, 2008 12:03 PM PST reply actions
Starting in CT would be a major step backward for him. It’s Fresno or bust.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 23, 2008 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
Even though it’s minor, I don’t see Ochoa or Bocock having more HR’s in a season than Burriss.
At least Burriss can actually square the ball up.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 22, 2008 12:59 PM PST reply actions
Bocock
insert joke involving “Bocock,” “Square,” and “Ball” here
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 22, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
Insert
Insert joke involving “Bocock” and “Insert” here
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 22, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
*Insert joke involving “Bocock” here *
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
-20 for recycling the already recycled “Pudge” nickname.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
^
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Didn’t RTFA
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
Did read the article. I’m just not a fan of “Pudge” for anyone but Carlton Fisk.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
/ Stmaped Approved
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 25, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
stamped even…
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 25, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
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