Giant's Top Ten Prospects, nonGROUPThink Groupthink edition
by kennv on Nov 22, 2008 7:02 AM PST
83 comments
At this point I think it might be cool to see how people's individual top tens are reflected in the community top ten. I was going to post this in a comment in the #11 poll, but didn't want to steal the thunder of the Pucetas-bashing, Ishikawa-pumping comments there.
Here's the Community Top Ten:
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. "C" Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Rafael Rodriguez
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Kevin Pucetas
How does your list differ from that? I'll post mine in a comment.
We also might compare our top ten list this year with top ten from last year. Find your top ten from last year and compare it with yours from this year. Some of us attempted to predict BAs top ten in this thread. By the way BA's top ten was:
1. Angel Villalona
2. Tim Alderson
3. Madison Bumgarner
4. Nate Schierhotz
5. Henry Sosa
6. Nick Noonan
7. Eugenio Velez
8. Wendell Fairley
9. John Bowker
10. Emmanuel Burriss
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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my top ten
I’ve been throwing my own vote away on Ishikawa for a few rounds now. This round he gets it again, but here how my personal top ten Giant prospects looks at the moment.
1. SP Madison Bumgarner – the amazing upside. the real chance he goes to AA
2. “C” Buster Posey – finally hit a HR in Hawaii, makes me feel better about him as #2
3. SP Tim Alderson – just not as fancy as the top two
4. 1B Angel Villalona – can’t believe he “down” to #4
5. 1B Travis Ishikawa – i went to high here, maybe. But he will be a part of a 30HR season from 1B.
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie – you may notice I rate “proximity” over “potential”
7. 2B Nick Noonan
8. SP Henry Sosa – I’m worried about the injury, but even then… who goes above him?
9. OF Rafael Rodriguez – too much of a mystery, could rise quickly
10. OF Wendell Fairley – the bottom of the top ten seems a good place for high upside, little history guys. (IMO)
my BA mastermind from last year:
“youth before beauty.
1 – Angel Villalona 8/13/1990
2 – MadBum 8/1/89
3 – Tim Alderson 11/3/88
4 – Nate Schierholtz 2/15/85
5 – Burris, Manny 1/17/85
6 – Nick Noonan 5/4/89
7 – Brian Anderson 5/25/83
8 – Sergio Romo 3/4/83
9 – John Bowker 7/8/83
10 – Henry Sosa 7/28/85
Honorable mention: Fairley and Culberson”
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 22, 2008 7:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Top Ten
1. Angel Villalona – I’m usually a proximity over potential guy, but Angel is just too good.
2. Buster Posey – no idea where he’ll play, but I’m pretty sure he’ll hit wherever that is.
3. Tim Alderson – proximity wins out for me over the next guy.
4. Madison Bumgarner – let’s see secondary pitches at a higher level. Also, I’m a contrarian.
5. Nick Noonan – he should have gone where Fairley did. I have no doubt he’ll make the ML.
6. Conor Gillaspie – could be a total flop; but maybe he’s the next Robin Ventura.
7. Henry Sosa – sentimental choice; probably should have moved him down to #9.
8. Scott Barnes
9. Kevin Nicholson
10. Daryl Maday
I think the most fun next year will be watching the young (non-Ald/Bum) pitchers in the minors. Those last four, plus Aaron King, Andy de la Garza, Chance Corgan, Edwin Quirarte, Justin Hedrick – there’s potential for some big breakouts among these guys.
What might be more interesting, and I may start this as a post later, is to predict who you think won’t ever make the majors, despite appearing on several other folks’ Top Prospects lists. I’ll end the suspense and say that I don’t think Wendell Fairley will ever get to AT&T without buying a ticket.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 22, 2008 7:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m thinking Sosa might be one who never makes it. His injury issues this year really worry me.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 22, 2008 7:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fairley and Sosa are two classic picks for “never makes it.” Fairley as the older HS player, delayed in development by other sports and an injury. Sosa was already a bit old, but was “breaking out.” Suddenly he had a chance… and then the injury and surgery and lost year.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 22, 2008 7:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The never make it list
could just turn into a recap of injuries and distance to the majors. If someone wanted to make an argument for why a player like Kieschnick or Crawford won’t make it to the bigs, it would be more interesting.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 22, 2008 7:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Make an argument?
You mean with, like, statistics and facts and stuff? Nah, that’s lame. I can just tell you Crawford won’t be making it. And Kieschnick could, but only if some dumb GM falls in love with his HR potential while simultaneously overlooking his flaws.
But I’m not saying they are Jackson Williams bad.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 22, 2008 8:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford, Tx
Brandon Crawford gets lots of McCoven Lovin’, however, truly believe he has a better chance as a ML pitcher than a ML shortstop.
by wilriv21 on Nov 22, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Premature, Tx
Let’s let him play a couple of seasons before we convert him to a pitcher.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolute, Vodka
It is time Bocock put down the lumber and pick up the rosin.
by wilriv21 on Nov 22, 2008 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think anyone is predicting that Gillaspie will have anywhere near Robin Ventura’s power.
by rotorueter on Nov 22, 2008 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My top ten thoughts
The Community Top Ten:
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. “C” Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Rafael Rodriguez
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Kevin Pucetas
I totally agree with the top 8, even if I quibble here and there with the order. My only really strong disagreement is with Kieschnick. He dropped to the 3rd round for a reason and displayed a lowish batting average and very high K-rate in winter ball. He has tools and may develop, but I just don’t see why he’d be included in the top-10. Scouts aren’t gushing over him because to date production hasn’t matched tools (much like Crawford). I guess it’s the thought of a power-hitting prospect in our system which is so alluring.
Pucetas is a decent pick for #10 I guess, but is very low-ceiling. His pitches have a ton of movement, and he has great control, which gives him a chance, but his stuff is average at best. He could be Greg Maddux light, so I can’t argue with including him too much.
Ish is (at best) a league average 1B when you combine his offense and his defense. I’m sorry, but I just can’t get excited about that. He’s probably a platoon player. Definitely not a top-10 guy.
Personally, I’d rate Adrianza and probably Fairly as my remaining 2 guys.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 22, 2008 7:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Mine:
1. Madbum
2. Buster
3. Tim 2
4. Angel
5. Gillaspie
6. Noonan
7. Sosa
8. Rafrod
9. Fairley
10. Kieschnick
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 7:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Top 10
1. Bumgarner
2. Alderson
3. Villalona
4. Posey
5. Ishikawa
6. Noonan
7. Barnes
8. Sosa
9. Gillaspie
10. EME
Love pitching and players with some history of production. Place a huge value on production at AA and above. Expect some growth for Villalona in 2009 followed by a huge breakout season in 2010. Hope EME is not selected in Rule 5 draft.
Sleepers are: Juan Carlos Perez, Ehire Adrianza, Aaron King, Mitch Lively and Jason Jarvis
by wilriv21 on Nov 22, 2008 7:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Aargh!
Jason Jarvis! I knew I was forgetting somebody. Also, I agree with your projection/hopes for AnVil, which is why I have him #1 on my list. And your point about AA production is a very good one, Wil!
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 22, 2008 8:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Love people who don’t use personal pronouns. Place a huge value on starting sentences with a verb. Expect to see some more of that from wilriv. Hope everyone else follows suit.
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Nov 22, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Will do.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 22, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Happy to do so.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
by tobias on Nov 24, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. “C” Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 3B Conor Gillaspie
6. 2B Nick Noonan
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Roger Kieschnick
9. OF Rafael Rodriguez
10. 1B Travis Ishikawa
I know I was a bit Kieschnick booster in the polling but I have been convinced that I was overrating him.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 22, 2008 8:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I like this ranking, too. For me TI is a borderline 10 or 11 prospect.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. “C” Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 3B Conor Gillaspie
6. 2B Nick Noonan
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Roger Kieschnick
9. SP Kevin Pucetas
10. 1B Travis Ishikawa
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Nov 22, 2008 8:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
9. SP Kevin Pucetas
Explain yourself!
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 22, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He may not be a flashy pitcher but the dude knows how to pitch. For some reason I think he’s going to be a pretty solid starter.
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Nov 22, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How is he better than Martinez or Snyder?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 22, 2008 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How many Most Spectacular Pitcher Awards did Snyder or Martinez win, huh!?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 22, 2008 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
now, I'm really confused
am I invited or not?
Never Question the McCoven!
by Group Think on Nov 22, 2008 9:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. Posey
2. Bumgarner
3. Villalona
4. Alderson
5. Gillaspie
6. Noonan
7. Rodriguez
8. Kieschnick
9. Sosa
10. Barnes
by Grant on Nov 22, 2008 9:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
And a Kevin Goldstein-style 25-and-under list:
1. Lincecum
2. Cain
3. Posey
4. Bumgarner
5. Sandoval
6. Villalona
7. Alderson
8. Schierholtz
9. Gillaspie
10. Burriss
This list is pretty sweet. Ten eggs means ten chickens. Won’t it be awesome to have ten chickens?
by Grant on Nov 22, 2008 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
now that prop 2 passed...
it might cost us too much to have ten chickens. but dammit they will be delicious chickens.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on Nov 22, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Schierholtz is still under 25? That really surprises me. He’s been jerked around forever.
Adopted son of in limbo Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Nov 22, 2008 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmmm….jerked chicken.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Nov 24, 2008 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 25, 2008 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow... Sandoval above AnVil and Alderson?
wow
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 25, 2008 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m smitten. What can I say? He didn’t stall at any level last year, he can play a premium position, and he’s fun as heck to watch.
Also, he really isn’t that much older than either Alderson or Villalona.
And I’m a little bearish on Alderson until his fastball is a legit strikeout pitch. It seems like he has 65 control, 70 curve, but only 45 or 50 velocity. That isn’t always the path to success for right-handers.
by Grant on Nov 25, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately, there’s not a big history of fastballs turning into strikeout pitches in AA and above if they weren’t in A ball. Guys go from strikeout pitchers to not so much as they rise the ladders, but from not so much to strikeout pitchers isn’t a well trod path.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 25, 2008 6:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s true, but Alderson’s age gives some hope. Would we view his FB better if he was pitching in Augusta last year and getting more Ks with it?
by mxmob33 on Nov 26, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I differ only on TI and Pucetas, really.
Pucetas is somewhere around 12 or 13 for me. I still think TI has some upside.
Going into this I had Noonan much lower, but the Groupthink got to me.
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. “C” Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. 1B Travis Ishikawa
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Rafael Rodriguez
by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 9:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wanted to put Noonan lower because I’m really not high on him at the moment at all, but looking at the list, I didn’t think I could justify anything lower than 6.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 22, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
/nods
Everyone I’ve ranked lower than him has either a spotty track record, no track record or some major holes in their game.
by oldjacket on Nov 22, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1. SP Madison Bumgarner-Not nuch question on this pick for me
2. Buster Posey- Not convinced about position
3. SP Tim Alderson-Proximity over promise
4. 1B Angel Villalona-Potential, 09 could be breakout
5. 2B Nick Noonan-solid tools and potential
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie-tools, agree with Lyles Robin Ventura comment.
7.1B Travis Ishikawa-Breakout or Bust
8. SP Henry Sosa
9. OF Rafael Rodriguez
10. OF Roger Kieschnick
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 22, 2008 9:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. MadBum
2. Buster
3. TimA
4. AnVil
5. Gillaspie
6. Noonan
7. RafRod
8. Sosa
9. Kieschnick
10. Mr. Wendell
I put TI higher in the community prospecting (#5), but I’ve rethunk that position and won’t quibble with the potential over production stance that puts the young guys ahead of the minor league vet.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2008 9:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
groupthink!
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 22, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer to think of it as “growing” or “evolving” in my thought process.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2008 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m popular today!
Never Question the McCoven!
by Group Think on Nov 22, 2008 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good idea
- Madbum
- Posey
- Villalona
- Alderson
- Kieschnick
- Gillaspie
- Crawford
- Sosa
- Noonan
- Martinez
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 22, 2008 10:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
My top ten - With DJ monikers
1 MadBum
2 Busta Poser
3 Angel or Villalona
4 DJ TimA
5 DANGER! Rafeal DANGER! – (Rodriguez)
7 Iheardafunk Adrianza
8 M.C.SouthPaw Scott Barnes
9 Noonan!
10 Pass the Mike McBryde
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 22, 2008 10:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
that was easy
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. “C” Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Rafael Rodriguez
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Kevin Pucetas
Never Question the McCoven!
by Group Think on Nov 22, 2008 11:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Buster Posey
3. Angel Villalona
4. Tim Alderson
5. Conor Gillaspie
6. Nick Noonan
7. Henry Sosa
8. Rafael Rodriguez
9. eHire Adrianza
10. Rush
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 22, 2008 12:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bumgarner
Alderson
Posey
Villalona
Pucetas
Gillaspie
Noonan
Sosa
Kieschnick
J. Martinez
I generally like pitching over hitting (Giants M.O.) and probability over ceiling.
by aGIANTfan on Nov 22, 2008 12:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My list (almost typoed as "My lust")
1) Madison Bumgarner
2) Buster Posey
3) Angel Villalona
4) Tim Alderson
5) Nick Noonan
6) Conor Gillaspie
7) Henry Sosa
8) Rafael Rodriguez
9) Wendell Fairley
10) Roger Kieschnick
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 22, 2008 1:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Busty Poser is on your lust.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 22, 2008 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmm, Busty.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 22, 2008 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1) Bumgarner
2) Posey (I feel fairly certain that by next year, he’ll be our clear No. 1, but for now, he’s below Mad Bum)
3) Alderson
4) Villalona
5) Gillaspie (it’s all about the OBP… and the fact that he can play 3B)
6) Noonan
7) Rodriguez
8) Sosa
9) Kieschnick
10) Fairley
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 22, 2008 10:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know -- third base
I am more excited about the possibility Conor Gillaspie can play second base than that he can play third. One would think that eventually the Giants would have the corners covered with Villalona and Sandoval/Posey. Conor certainly COULD wind up winning the hot corner job, but that he supposedly has the athleticism to play second base, where his lack of power wouldn’t be a negative and where I’m not totally sold on Nick Noonan, excites me even more.
by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2008 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re getting very excited, Rog.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 24, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Top Six
I see a top six broken into three distinct groups, and then think it gets really murky after that. About the only potential difference maker I see beyond the top six is Roger Kieschnick, and as others have mentioned, Roger seems to have mechanical problems that will need to be corrected. Aside from Angel Villalona, Kieschnick appears to have easily the most power potential, so I suppose I would put him at #7.
Many would rank Nick Noonan higher. I myself had him ranked higher a year ago. I love his swing, but his K/BB ratio stunk for a guy with so-so power at best. Henry Sosa might be my #8 — ahead of Noonan — but his injury-riddled 2008 season made him a mystery.
I had Wendell Fairley ranked in my top 10 a year ago and might include him in the bottom of that grouping again. He didn’t fare well despite being old for him league, but he did improve his batting average 40 points a month and showed he could take a walk. Far less power than I expected, though, and an average that left doubts.
That’s why I don’t see much beyond question marks after the top six guys.
My top grouping would be Buster Posey for being the closest to a sure thing and Madision Bumgarner for probably having the highest ceiling of any Giant not named Lincecum.
My next grouping would have Angel Villalona for potential and Tim Alderson for perhaps being just confidence in his change up away from becoming a major league starter. Angel would make my top group if not for his very poor K/BB ratio. Still, he is probably the closest thing in all the minors to a potential 40-homer guy. I see him as a low BA, low OBP guy who will wow you with his power.
Keep in mind that while Angel more than held his own in Low A while playing most of the season at 17, at just a month and 13 days older, Bumgarner dominated Low A in a manner that is rare — especially when he went back to his old motion after the Giants tried to change him in his first three starts. If Mad Bum can stay healthy, I think the Giants have one of the best prospects in all the minors.
My third grouping of two is made up of Conor Gillaspie and Rafael Rodriguez. Gillaspie outhit Posey and all the other top college players who played in the wood bat Cape Cod League in the summer of 2007. A pitcher named Tim Lincecum was particularly dominant there in the summer of 2005, splitting time between starter and closer.
Rodriguez is a huge question mark — but a 16-year-old question mark who was felt to have enough potential that he received the biggest contract the Giants had given at that time — higher even than Villalona or Lincecum.
I like the top six as well as anyone’s top half dozen. And I’m sure several others will emerge beyond that. But beyond the top six, I don’t see many who would be difference makers even at their ceilings, and few who seem at all certain of reaching those ceilings.
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2008 6:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I was debating..
sharksrog or Martin.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 24, 2008 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you meant one year older for Bumgarner vs. Villalona. They’re almost exactly one year apart.
by Dan from NM on Nov 25, 2008 5:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's basically my thinking
Except that I have my last pairing as Rodriguez and Ishikawa. Hence the split at birth reference.
Meh, Todd Linden also did well in Cape Cod too, I need to see more examples of success in that league leading to success in the majors before I buy that, I suppose I’ve been jaded by Linden’s lack of success.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 25, 2008 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, except...
For Villalona, you have to really separate his season into, like, two halves, despite the small sampling, because he clearly was overmatched early on but then figured things out by the end of the season:
April: .212/.273/.325/.598, 1 HR in 80 AB, .276 BABIP
May: .250/.299/.460/.759, 5 HR in 100 AB, .290 BABIP
June: .237/.295/.425/.720, 4 HR in 80 AB, .333 BABIP
July: .279/.306/.394/.700, 2 HR in 104 AB, .333 BABIP
Aug: .308/.363/.529/.892, 5 HR in 104 AB, .351 BABIP
I gave him the nod over Alderson because while Alderson can be a very good pitcher, Villalona can be a 40 HR hitter, even rarer.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 25, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point
Very good point here, Martin. Wendell Fairley also had a nice pattern of improvement.
The one thing I was a bit disappointed by was that Angel’s K/BB ratio didn’t improve much as the season went on. From April through August it was 21/6, 26/5, 31/2, 21/2 and 22/3. If his K/BB improvement would have accompanied his other improvement at the plate, I would have felt much better about his season. His final 121/18 K/BB ratio was pretty awful, particularly when three of the 18 walks were intentional.
I do love the power potential, and perhaps Angel will draw more walks as his power develops and he becomes a more feared hitter. But my opinion of both Angel and of Nick Noonan dropped this past season due to their very poor K/BB ratios.
If we look at other young hitters who have made it up to the Giants, Fred Lewis at least draws walks, Nate Schierholtz has cut down on his strikeouts, Pablo Sandoval doesn’t strike out much, Travis Ishikawa draws some walks, and even Emmanuel Burriss walks a little and doesn’t strike out much.
From what I have read, K/BB ratio in the minors is a decent indicator of future hitting success in the majors. To the extent that is true, I’m a little worried about both Angel and Nick. In that regard, Noonan’s reputation was Nicked a bit, while Villalona no longer looks quite as much like an Angel.
I think I’ll just take my DayQuil now. Oh, maybe I already did!
by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2008 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Note that those lines could also be used to argue that he was getting luckier as the season went along. One might also note that his walk rate and his line drive/ground ball rate deteriorated as the season went along. I’d like to believe that he was “figuring things out,” but it sure doesn’t look like it.
by Evan on Nov 25, 2008 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Evan
Evan, that’s pretty darn good analysis. Hopefully we’re being overly pessimistic about Angel — and the guy is barely 18 — but it would be nice to see him have a very good year at San Jose, increasing his walk rate and cutting back on his strikeouts.
It would be nice if he REALLY played so well that he had to be promoted to Connecticut before season’s end.
Yes, AnVil is still young. But at just a year older than Angel, Madison Bumgarner put up a season for the ages. Villalona merely held his own and a little more — when he was actually making contact. :)
by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2008 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
April: .212/.273/.325/.598, 1 HR in 80 AB, .276 BABIP
May: .250/.299/.460/.759, 5 HR in 100 AB, .290 BABIP
June: .237/.295/.425/.720, 4 HR in 80 AB, ..333 BABIP
July: .279/.306/.394/.700, 2 HR in 104 AB, .333 BABIP
Aug: .308/.363/.529/.892, 5 HR in 104 AB, .351 BABIP
That’s what I’m seeing.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 26, 2008 9:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
couldn’t it also mean he was hitting more line drives?
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 26, 2008 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It could … but he wasn’t. http://firstinning.com/players/Angel-Villalona-a/
by Evan on Nov 26, 2008 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It could, but according to http://www.minorleaguesplits.com and http://firstinning.com that’s not the case. I can’t spot anything that resembles a steady improvement in his contact, power and/or plate discipline numbers.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 26, 2008 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point
I didn’t realize Todd had done well in the Cape. But I can see how that would make you hesitant to get dizzy about Gillaspie. Tim Lincecum did quite well there, but then he’s a pitcher.
by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2008 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"...dizzy about Gillaspie..."
I see what you did there
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 26, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants traditionally put a lot of stock in Cape Cod performance, I suppose because it’s a wood bat league. That’s where Burriss put himself on their radar as well, and it definitely put the shiny on Linden as a draft prospect.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 26, 2008 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1) Madison Bumgarner
2) Buster Posey
3) Tim Alderson
4) Angel Villalona
5) Nick Noonan
6) Conor Gillaspie
7) Henry Sosa
8) Roger Kieschnick
9) Rafael Rodriguez
10) Wendell Fairley
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!
by GiantFan on Nov 24, 2008 2:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. Mad Bum
2. Posey
3. Alderson
4. Villalona
5. Conor Gillaspie
6. Nick Noonan
7. Raf Rod
8. Sosa
9. Kieschnick
10. Fairley
by lincypoo i wuv u on Nov 24, 2008 6:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
1) MadBum
2) Posey
3) AnVil
4) TimII
5) Noonan
6) Sosa
7) Gillaspie
8) RafRod
9) Roger Kieschnick
10) Wendel Fairley
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 25, 2008 10:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Just what have you got against groupthink, kennv?
I don’t think we like your attitude.
by Evan on Nov 25, 2008 3:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think he said non-GROUPT-hink. There’s a difference.
It’s kind of like cow-orker (the people you work with).
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 25, 2008 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know what the rest of the groupt hinks, but I’ve enjoyed this thread. Like seeing little differences in how we are ranking the prospects- Kieschnick or Fairley. the wild-cards like Adrianza, or Martinez. or how people are moving Sosa up or down their lists after 2008. I’ve also liked seeing how similar the top ten tend to be, if if the order ranking order changes from list to list.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 25, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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