Orlando Hudson and the San Francisco Giants: Meet the old GM, same as the old GM
by Grant
on Nov 21, 2008 10:45 AM PST
267 comments
One of the more baffling rumors, courtesy of sfgiants.com:
The organization has invited him to meet its parents and everything. Hudson plays a position at which the Giants could use an upgrade, though there are semi-reasonable options in place if the Giants choose to ignore second base. Still, Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez should never, ever, never, ever stand in the way of a team looking to sign a free agent. As fallback options, they’re not bad, but fallback options are all they should be.
Hudson plays silly defense. At least, he used to. And his on-base percentages for the past three years have been good: .367, .376, and .354 going back to 2006. He has a little pop, and he runs well. What’s not to like?
He’s 31, and he wants five years and $50M. Good gravy. How about no.
He had season-ending surgery last year to put a wrist bone back in place. In May, he had hamstring issues. Last year, he tore a ligament in his thumb a couple of months after jamming his ankle. Oh, and he’s 31. The wrist bone thing is serious – because the wrist bone connects to the arm bone that connects to the shoulder bone that connects to the heart bone that connects directly to the gamer bone – but it wouldn’t be as much of a red flag if he didn’t have a sordid injury history.
If the Giants signed Hudson, their second-round draft choice would go to a division rival. There's about a 10% chance that would come back to haunt the Giants, but it would sting if the Hudson signing bequeathed the next Dustin Pedroia to the Diamondbacks.
And Hudson just might be a Bank One creation. Now, home/road splits aren’t the final word on a player’s offensive ability. Almost every player hits better at home than on the road. Almost everyone laughed at the Nationals for trading for Alfonso Soriano, who appeared to be an Arlington mirage, and almost everyone learned a little bit of a lesson. But it’s wacky to just ignore park effects. In Arizona, Hudson is an MVP candidate. On the road, he’s close to the low end of what we’d hope for from Kevin Frandsen:
2007 – Home: .302/.382/.511 – Away: .286/.370/.369
2008 – Home: .326/.403/.536 – Away: .288/.337/.381
Again, this doesn’t guarantee that he’d come to Mays Field and magically transform into Away Hudson for 162 games, but danged if that doesn’t raise more red flags than were raised for Yuri Gagarin’s parade through Moscow. Here’s five years! Fifty million clams! And…oh, dang. You really can’t hit away from Arizona. Well, we certainly aren’t re-signing you in 2014. You cost yourself a lucrative extension, pal.
Orlando Hudson: What you get when Edgardo Alfonzo’s contract mates with Ray Durham’s contract. Stay away. Far away. Far, far away. Two-year deal? Sure. I’m in. Three-year deal. Heck, that shouldn’t cripple a franchise. Five years, at star money? Insanity. If he were a 30-homer guy, I could see why the Giants would take the gamble. Or, if the Giants were a .500 team last season, I could see how he might help them become a contender. But he isn't, and they aren't.
No.
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heh heh
you said bone.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 21, 2008 10:51 AM PST
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Hudson's Choice:
Hudson at 5/50
or
Furcal at 4/45
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 10:52 AM PST
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Furcal all the way, doesn’t cost a draft pick.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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Furcal
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on
Nov 21, 2008 11:08 AM PST
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It’s not even close. Furcal all the way over Hudson. Younger, similar injury history, SS, more speed and doesn’t cost a draft pick.
Hudson= DO NOT WANT or SABEAN SHOULD BE FIRED
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on
Nov 21, 2008 11:09 AM PST
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Uuhhh....Furcal
I must remind you that he was both a Dodger and a Brave. I’m pretty covinced that he is evil :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 21, 2008 11:11 AM PST
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None of the above.
if denied that have to NOT HUDSON for 5 years.
Perhaps i was not being clear enough.I am sure other will tell me.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 21, 2008 11:54 AM PST
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ok wiseacres
At what contract to Furcal is it just as “bad” as 5/50 to Hudson?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 1:30 PM PST
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humm ...
The one were he is not only unhealthy but he breaks Tim’s & Cain’s throw arms in the shower.
/ nods nods
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 8:33 AM PST
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just adding to the Furcal pile!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 3:22 PM PST
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hudson
whoops, did I do this wrong?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 21, 2008 3:47 PM PST
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Here's Hudson's plus/minus over the last few years
I can’t get the ’05 data right now for some reason
Year +/- 2003 +22 2004 +35 2005 --- 2006 +13 2007 +20 2008 -4
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 10:54 AM PST
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Two more items.
Marcel projects him at: .285/.357/.432 wOBA .346
And his park-adjusted wOBA as compared to the league wOBA from 2003-2008
Year wOBA* lgwOBA 2003 .328 .344 2004 .350 .348 2005 .326 .341 2006 .362 .343 2007 .359 .338 2008 .362 .333
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 10:58 AM PST
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NUMBERS EXPLOSION!!!
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on
Nov 21, 2008 11:08 AM PST
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80000000000000000000000388888888888888888888!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 21, 2008 11:13 AM PST
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11100101010010111010010010010101111100010010001001010010010101!
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 21, 2008 11:28 AM PST
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I'm new here, but I thought I might help
wOBA or weighted on base average is a statistic developed by and used with the permission of Tom Tango. He gives a detailed rundown of it here. In a nutshell, wOBA uses linear weights on certain batting events to come up with a metric that is more statistically sound than OPS and is scaled onto an OBP scale. According to Tango “An average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.”
www.statcorner.com/glossary.html
This comes from authors of my favorite baseball blog, Lookout Landing for the Mariners.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on
Nov 21, 2008 5:16 PM PST
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a mariners fan, eh?
What do you want for Beltre?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 8:17 PM PST
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I really don't think the Giants have what the M's need, but I don't know the whole org. yet.
I am giant Beltre fan, and on one hand I would love to go watch him play more often. But on the other I want him to stay in Seattle.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on
Nov 24, 2008 12:05 PM PST
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Thanks for the wOBA clue…but I’ve never figured
out why the M’s blog is Lookout Landing. Anyone
care to inform?
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on
Nov 22, 2008 11:45 AM PST
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There is a cool area at Safeco called Look Out Landing.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on
Nov 24, 2008 12:03 PM PST
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Yeah, the question about Hudson is whether the überdefender he used to be is coming back or gone for good. I see Durhamism in his future.
by Evan on
Nov 21, 2008 11:17 AM PST
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/hammy explodes
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 11:19 AM PST
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so you're saying
his career will be filled with walk-off HRs?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 21, 2008 11:32 AM PST
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Hudson
Was a +20 in 2005.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 21, 2008 12:22 PM PST
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Thanks, Cookyman. Where did you get your numbers? Bill James Online was giving me problems.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:51 PM PST
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I don’t have a subscription, but The Fielding Bible has the 2005-2007 leaders for free. Hudson was a +53 during those years, and you said that he was +13 in 2006 and +20 in 2007, so I just did the math.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 21, 2008 2:22 PM PST
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Hudson can ask for anything he wants, that doesn’t mean he’s going to get it. For example, Derrek Lowe is supposedly asking for Zito’s contract. The Giants are doing their due diligence and Brian Sabean is kicking those tires. He’s not signing everybody, he’s giving himself some fallback options in case the players he really wants sign elsewhere. He’ll talk to all the available middle infield options and try to find the best one at the best price. Hudson is not the best one, and the price he’s asking for right now means he’s not the right price. I wouldn’t go crazy over every rumor we hear this offseason. It is interesting to talk about it though.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Nov 21, 2008 11:00 AM PST
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its just scary
because the Giants have given players (Zito) the money they want before.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 21, 2008 11:15 AM PST
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For example, Derrek Lowe is supposedly asking for Zito’s contract.
In annual value, not length. That’s a pretty important distinction.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 11:53 AM PST
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Agreed
Can you imagine how much less angst we would feel if Zito only had two years left . That would make a long term, high dollar contract to Tex much less scary.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 21, 2008 11:57 AM PST
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I say we let him have it.
Heck, he can even have Dave Roberts’ contract to go with it. I don’t know what he’s going to do with their contracts…but frankly I don’t much care.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Nov 21, 2008 4:54 PM PST
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Last Offseason
Eckstein was asking for $36m/4 years, and got $4.5m/1year.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 21, 2008 12:36 PM PST
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That’s largely because Eckstein sucks.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on
Nov 21, 2008 2:22 PM PST
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The difference between his AVG and OBP is still pretty good. He is going to continue to get on base at a good rate. The eye is there.
That doesn’t mean he should get 5/50 though. That is just stupid.
by Lars The Wanderer on
Nov 21, 2008 11:06 AM PST
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GAMER BONE!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 21, 2008 11:12 AM PST
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that’s what she said
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 21, 2008 11:28 AM PST
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gamer?
I hardly even knew her!
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 21, 2008 11:33 AM PST
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Thigh bone?
memories…
Speed, defense... and an almost fanatical devotion to getting picked off.
by SF Pete on
Nov 21, 2008 11:38 AM PST
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If we add Hudson and Furcal...
we better save some money to add a free agent trainer/rehab dude.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on
Nov 21, 2008 11:15 AM PST
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Home/away
But remember, as a Giant he’d still be playing 9 games a year in Arizona. That’s 81 home games and 9 home-away-from-home games. I don’t see “home away from home” among your smartypants little statistical numbers, pal.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on
Nov 21, 2008 11:24 AM PST
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“raise more red flags than were raised for Yuri Gagarin’s parade through Moscow”
LOL
Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.
by marklar on
Nov 21, 2008 11:39 AM PST
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Yeah
That was my favorite line too.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 11:53 AM PST
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History nerd
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
by tobias on
Nov 21, 2008 10:59 PM PST
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On the road, he’s close to the low end of what we’d hope for from Kevin Frandsen:
2006 – Home: .321/.397/.489 – Away: .254/.313/.421
2007 – Home: .302/.382/.511 – Away: .286/.370/.369
2008 – Home: .326/.403/.536 – Away: .288/.337/.381
For the record, that’s the high end of what I hope for from Frandsen.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 21, 2008 11:50 AM PST
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2007, sure. But 2008? Eh, you’re probably right. I was focused more on 2006 when I wrote that line.
I still think Frandsen has a .280/.340/.430 season in him, though, dang it.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 11:57 AM PST
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.268/.333/.410
that’s just a random guess though
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on
Nov 21, 2008 12:16 PM PST
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2008 is definitely what I’m thinking. Although, it is entirely possible that he has that line with more power, like you said. I really hope so.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 21, 2008 12:18 PM PST
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This signing would be classic Brian Sabean. Call him what you want, but at least he’s is consistent. Overpaying for a veteran at a postion we have a lot of options at . This kind of move would normally anger me but when I read it I kind of chuckled.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on
Nov 21, 2008 12:00 PM PST
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Almost every player hits better at home
Darryl Strawberry and Brett Myers are good examples.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on
Nov 21, 2008 12:07 PM PST
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Ouch
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 12:09 PM PST
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Didn’t Brett Myers’ incident happen in Boston—on the road?!?!
I was THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on
Nov 21, 2008 12:54 PM PST
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Head Fake by Sabean
Sabean probably has made an offer to Furcal that is still outstanding and wants to let Furcal and his agent know the Giants are ready to deal or possibly move on.
by wilriv21 on
Nov 21, 2008 12:55 PM PST
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Oh, that crafty Sabes!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 12:57 PM PST
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I hope you're right!
That might be giving Ol’ Bri’ a little too much credit though.
You probably know it as MYANMAR, but it will always be BURMA to me!
by NuschlerFace on
Nov 21, 2008 12:58 PM PST
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+1
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on
Nov 21, 2008 2:24 PM PST
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yeah, I said the same thing when the Giants’ were suddenly interested in Cabrera and Renteria. It’s a common move for a GM to use the media to send messages to players and agents. Even someone like Brian Sabean would know how to do that.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Nov 21, 2008 3:03 PM PST
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What Are You For?
You seem to be against signing any significant free agent at market price (only liking below market minor deals like you think we got with with Alfelt). You also seem to be against any market price trades for significant players seeming to only want to do deals that are outright steals. All you seem to be leaving on the table is to rebuild inhouse and thus waste the cheap and controlable years of both Cain and Lincecum. How does this really make any sense?
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 12:58 PM PST
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Not to split hairs, but is O-Dog a significant player? I think that’s Grants point…he’s nice and all, but how much impact will he make?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:04 PM PST
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And like Evan already stated above, the whole deal should revolve around if Hudson is still a +1 win defender at 2B, if not, he’s even less attractive. I’ll leave assessment to the Giants medical team.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:06 PM PST
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He also said it wasn’t the price that puts him off. It’s the years. So it’s not even about market value in this case.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 1:20 PM PST
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Weither O-Dog Is Significant Isn't The Point
The point is that Grant’s posts have not been in favor of adding any significant players thru free agency of trade.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 1:21 PM PST
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those posts are never satisfied
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on
Nov 21, 2008 1:35 PM PST
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He said he’d listen to Tex.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 1:35 PM PST
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The idea is that you shouldn’t be buying middle-class free agents. You buy the elite or the low-risk, high-reward types. Buying in the middle is the biggest waste of money possible. It’s how you end up with Zito and Rowand and Roberts. We’re paying these guys $33 million next year for production that we could probably get for close to league minimum.
It’s also how you end up with not enough money to go after the elites, such as Teixeira and Sabathia (although, personally, I’d avoid Sabathia).
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 21, 2008 1:20 PM PST
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They Why Is Grant Also against CC and Tex?
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 1:21 PM PST
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WHO IS THE REAL GRANT!?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:22 PM PST
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I heard Grant pals around with high priced free agents!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:23 PM PST
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There are very good reasons to be wary of signing CC, specifically long contracts to pitchers are dangerous. As for Teixeira:
It’s also how you end up with not enough money to go after the elites, such as Teixeira and Sabathia (although, personally, I’d avoid Sabathia).
Going after Teixeira would be difficult due to the Zito and Rowand contracts. At this point, I just have to assume you have no clue how to read. This assumption basically explains all the nonsensical garbage you spew.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 21, 2008 1:27 PM PST
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I’m torn on Teixeira. No on C.C., though. Pitchers are just too risky.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 1:54 PM PST
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Also note that I was for Orlando Hudson before I was against him.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 1:55 PM PST
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Ah, I See You Are Taking the Kerry Approach
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 2:25 PM PST
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Again, Grant isn’t against Hudson on principle. He “changed” his mind once the conditions of the signing changed (which is to say that he didn’t change his mind at all). Orlando Hudson for 2 years is not the same signing as Orlando Hudson for 5 years. Naturally, Grant will have a different opinion on different signings.
There is no contradiction here.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 3:23 PM PST
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Isn't That What I Said
He is not willing to pay market price. He is only willing to sign those that can be had for below market price which most likely means can’t really help us much.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 3:40 PM PST
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At what price do you think Hudson becomes a good deal for the Giants? Before this season, PECOTA predicted he would be worth 14 wins over a replacement player from 2009-2013. Are those 14 wins worth $40M to $50M? Because BP also predicted that Kevin Frandsen to be worth 9 wins over a replacement player over that same period.
Now, PECOTA isn’t the Oracle at Delphi; the system can be spectacularly wrong. But doesn’t that make you think, gee, maybe Orlando Hudson isn’t the best fit for the Giants right now? Because the extra win that BP gives Hudson for 2009 probably isn’t going to be worth the long-term financial restrictions. Maybe this data will all change for BP 2009…but I’ll bet it won’t be a drastic change.
Basically, what a huge deal to Hudson says is either “screw the stats; Hudson will suddenly morph into a star into his mid-30s”, or “the Giants’ time to contend is now, and they can’t futz around with Kevin Frandsen for a year.” Nuts to that.
If Frandsen bombs out in 2009, the Giants look like they are serious contenders, and Noonan is three years away, then give a big-ass contract to Brian Roberts for the 2010 Giants. If that’s the last piece of the lineup puzzle, go for it. But they don’t need to make that decision right now.
Really, if they go for Hudson, the only way I’d be in favor of the deal is if they also signed Furcal and Teixeira. What the hell, right? Then the team would have an unbelieveable amount of long-term risk, but they’d also have a short-term payoff.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 4:31 PM PST
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I Am Not Making A Pro Hudson Arguement
I am making a pro add a quality middle inflieder arguement and whatever the market price to do so is. I am fine with betting that at least one of Frandsen, Burriss, or even Velez can be an acceptable MLB starter but I am not fine with betting that two of them can.
Like the Giants I prefer Frucal. But if he chooses to go elsewhere I am also fine with Hudson as plan B. Now if we get down to plan C or D (Renteria or Cabrera) then I flip joining you and prefering to just go with what we already have.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 4:45 PM PST
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I’m wary of Furcal, but not anti-Furcal. I just don’t trust Burriss enough to hate the idea, especially since Burriss is just a year away from stinking up San Jose. Next year’s FA market for SS is miserable, so I’m warming to the idea of Furcal just a little.
But Hudson plays a position at which the Giants have something of a known quantity. Frandsen is a career .327/.391/.458 hitter in the minors, and his defense is average. Maybe the .269/.331/.379 hitter from 2007 is all we’ll ever get, and I certainly wouldn’t argue against acquiring any improvement at 2B because of Frandsen, but the difference between his projected value and Hudson’s isn’t enough to take the risk.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:11 PM PST
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Again, he’s not against the price. He’s against the years. I know that can be a little bit of a spurrious distinction, but let’s not act like the two are exactly the same.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 11:59 PM PST
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In A Free Agent Market Years Are Part Of The Price
Otherwise we would not see so many long term contracts. Most times years are more important to the player the the average annual salary.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 22, 2008 2:11 PM PST
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Don't You Hate Pants?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 22, 2008 3:42 PM PST
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Yes, I know that can be a bit of a spurrious distinction.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 22, 2008 4:58 PM PST
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You were also for the Bridge to Nowhere before you were against it.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on
Nov 21, 2008 2:35 PM PST
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I know rullly
Just reading those names is like “gut punch gut punch gut punch”
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 1:29 PM PST
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I’m more of a “groin kick groin kick football to the groin” man myself.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 21, 2008 1:31 PM PST
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Sad because it’s true.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:50 PM PST
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/splits hairs
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:47 PM PST
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GroupThink Warning
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on
Nov 21, 2008 2:27 PM PST
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When market value for a player is too much, Grant doesn’t want to sign him.
What’s the problem?
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 4:14 PM PST
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The Problem Is That This Results In Not Adding Anybody Actually Worth Adding
by giantsrainman on
Nov 21, 2008 4:17 PM PST
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Which is worse than a stupid Zito or Rowand deal?
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 4:56 PM PST
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The Problem Is That This Results In Not Adding Anybody Actually Worth Adding
The problem with that stateme is 2 fold. It supposes :
1) There is some one worth adding.
2) That avoiding stepping in huge steaming pile of sticky cap is a bad thing.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 8:49 AM PST
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This
The real questions are whether Hudson is an improvement (ie, worth adding) and whether, even if he is, the potential contract is a “huge steaming pile of crap”. If the answer to either question is yes, a rebuilding team with payroll issues has no business adding that player. I, for one, think that the Teix for 8/160, or CC for 6/125, isn’t as clear a violation of this rule as Hudson for 5/50. Both of those guys are clear improvements who might actually be worth their long contracts. I don’t think Hudson is an improvement and I think his contract would be bad. Ergo, please no. Furcal, on the other hand, might be worth it and I support signing him at market, especially since we wouldn’t be giving a pick to the Bums.
by cornball on
Nov 22, 2008 11:43 AM PST
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Do You Actually Believe O-Dog Will Get 5 Years?
I don’t. I think he will choose between 4 years from an acceptable team and 3 years from what he views as a preferable team.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 22, 2008 2:15 PM PST
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If he is still out there come new years day I think your guess-estimate is correct.
The thing is he is 1 of the 4 best Infielder available this season. A team that thinks they are close or that they might compete with what a healthy Hudson has historically done could very easily go all in for him. I would expect, if such a team is out there this winter, they will show themselves by New Years day and the added year(s) is how they would do it..
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 2:54 PM PST
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The Mets Seem To Have Decided To Stick With Castillo
so just who do you think will actually offer this kind of contract to Hudson? I just don’t see this buyer anywhere in the market.
by giantsrainman on
Nov 22, 2008 3:16 PM PST
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It would take something like The Dodgers thinking he is a great idea for second . Or the Cubs think DeRosa in OF and Hudson at second would be a net boost. or Cashman thinking Cano would be better of in the outfield. Its the kind of logic we, as fans, are usually not able to guess at because most of the time when a GM thinks that way he plays his hand close to his chest.
I am not calling my shot here. Just stateing it’s possible.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 4:22 PM PST
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ooh, almost forgot to snark:
Now, home/road splits aren’t the final word on a player’s offensive ability.
Translation: home/road splits don’t mean dick.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 1:31 PM PST
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I think the offseason has made McC snarkier than usual, you fuckin’ idiot.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:48 PM PST
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Hey screw you xanthan! Your the Fuckin’ IDIOT!….oh gosh sorry, I lost my head there for minute.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 2:03 PM PST
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It’s always in the last place you look.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 2:06 PM PST
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Up his ass?
That would be the last place I would look
by Lars The Wanderer on
Nov 21, 2008 2:08 PM PST
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I would hope that would be last play youlook! But its first for me!
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 3:02 PM PST
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Interestingly enough, since his head was up there it was also the first and only place he looked
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 21, 2008 3:25 PM PST
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Ya sure could have used a flashlight.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 4:10 PM PST
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that's not snark, that's abuse
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 2:10 PM PST
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you want snarkiness...
that’s room 12b, right next door, you stupid git.
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on
Nov 21, 2008 2:14 PM PST
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“I’LL SIGN ANYTHING THAT MOVES!”…
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on
Nov 21, 2008 1:32 PM PST
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Blue Velvet reference, yes!
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:36 PM PST
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Hudson?!
SIGN THAT SHIT! N.L. PENNANT!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
by hairball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:06 PM PST
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DADDY WANT TO SIGN! DADDY WANT TO SIGN!
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on
Nov 21, 2008 3:14 PM PST
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HEINEKEN?
FUCK THAT SHIT!
PABST. BLUE. RIBBON!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 3:21 PM PST
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i dont get it.
is the joke that they are both terrible, or that one is of superior quality? because they are both terrible.
pabst reminds me of crappy smoke-filled bars in alabama and heineken reminds me of suit-wearing chodes that think it’s good if it costs a dollar more than budweiser and tastes like rat piss is added aftet fermentation.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Nov 22, 2008 1:34 PM PST
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it’s from the movie Blue Velvet dude
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 22, 2008 3:42 PM PST
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Best movie ever.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 22, 2008 4:51 PM PST
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top 5 fo sho
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 22, 2008 4:53 PM PST
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Yes, it's wacky to ignore park effects
That’s why there are stats like OPS+ and EQA.
It’s even wackier to say things like
Again, this doesn’t guarantee that he’d come to Mays Field and magically transform into Away Hudson for 162 games, but danged if that doesn’t raise more red flags than were raised for Yuri Gagarin’s parade through Moscow.
The problem with paying for Hudson isn’t his road splits, it is one, whether his D / range has been affected by his injuries, and two, he is an ageing player at a physically punishing position, hence all the injuries.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 1:36 PM PST
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I think its wacky to use park effects
I haven’t found one method that satisfies me. Bill James method ignores any park that the team hasn’t played at and includes the effects of having the DH at AL parks in inter-league games. Baseball Reference does it similarly in that it ignores any park that the team hasn’t played at. Have no idea what Baseball Prospectus does, but I would assume most methods involve some usage of runs scored and runs allowed, both at home and on the road, and performing algebraic calculations on a certain time series, usually 3 years worth.
Now, I don’t know what the right way to do it is, I just know that these are wrong for the reasons I stated.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Nov 21, 2008 2:06 PM PST
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Obviously park effects have issues
And are noisy. I don’t believe BBRef includes the effects of the DH; Forman accounts for the effects of the DH.
But using raw stats have even bigger issues. And using home road splits have also even bigger issues.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 2:45 PM PST
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That's why I didn't mention it for BBRef, only Bill James
I just think the issues are big enough that the adjustments made to determine park factors isn’t that much more illuminating than using home road splits.
It’s kind of like how OBP*SLG is a better measure but OPS is used because it’s easy to calculate and use. Park Factors are nice for comparing parks, but if you are going to look at a specific hitter, I think looking at his road numbers vs. his home number illuminates his true skills better than trying to adjust everything with park factors.
More black box math does not always equal better understanding for people in general, plus then there is always the potential for misunderstanding along the way. For example, until recently, I thought OPS+ adjusted for position as well as ball park.
Not that I don’t use OPS+ or Park Effects to discuss things, just that I think for individual players, it is more illuminating to show road vs. home stats. It is not the total picture, but part of a set of stats that, when presented together, tries to convey what you are trying to show.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Nov 21, 2008 3:01 PM PST
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The problem with using road splits
is that there is no evidence, not in any study, that they have predictive value. Alfonso Soriano is the example that Grant named, by their are other hitters whom people expected to struggle because of their road splits, who did not struggle.
In fact, both MGL, and Dan Szymborski, the ZiPs guy, have said that in their own private studies, road splits have ZERO predictive value. Szym said this in his TA oracle on the recent Holliday trade on BBTF.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 12:54 AM PST
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Wow. That’s surprising.
Preston Wilson, Neifi Perez and Dante Bichette all leap to mind as guys that either fell off after leaving Co. or put up much crappier numbers before they came.
by oldjacket on
Nov 22, 2008 9:30 AM PST
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That surprised me as well. If I had known of MGL and Szymborski’s studies, I probably would have eliminated that part.
The players you’re thinking of were “old Coors”, which I think made a huge difference as the most extreme hitter’s park in history. Well, I’m just guessing it was the most extreme. I’m sure some nerd will start in with the “b..b..but the Baker Bowl!!1” in about two seconds. But there isn’t anything thing that comes close to ’90s Coors Field right now.
by Grant on
Nov 22, 2008 9:56 AM PST
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I’m sure some nerd will start in with the "b..b..but the Baker Bowl!!1" in about two seconds.
haha.
I’ll go watch TV or something! Hey, Top Chef is on.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 22, 2008 9:58 AM PST
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The chefs this year seem a lot worse at cooking than normal.
by oldjacket on
Nov 22, 2008 10:26 AM PST
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Yeah, I haven’t ever seen Top Chef before but my coworkers watch it so I’m watching it this season so I can have something to blab about at work.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 22, 2008 12:02 PM PST
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that's not what it means
Their individual splits have no meaning, after you adjust their overall numbers for the park inflation.
So the fact that Bichette himself hit even better at home than you would expect for Coors is not predictitive but that he would be worse (overall) not playing half his games in Colorado is.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 23, 2008 7:25 AM PST
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My theory...
… is that Sabean is just throwing all these rumors out about a bunch of useless, barely-an-upgrade type players, so that when he pulls Teixeira, no one will have seen it coming.
Yay!
by The Double Deuce on
Nov 21, 2008 1:48 PM PST
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Tex would be a very nice fit
Never saw the Zito signing coming.
by wilriv21 on
Nov 21, 2008 1:51 PM PST
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Yup
Look how that turned out.
Awesome.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 21, 2008 3:04 PM PST
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too soon.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 8:53 AM PST
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your ideas intrigue me
and I wish Sabes would subscribe to your newsletter
by BigO on
Nov 21, 2008 3:04 PM PST
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What is the max deal Sabean should offer Teixeira?
Tex is 28 yrs old and in his prime. How about 7yrs/$140M?
- Too high?
- Too many years?
- Willing to go higher?
by wilriv21 on
Nov 21, 2008 3:08 PM PST
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when in doubt
always get higher
"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"
by The Gene Hackman on
Nov 21, 2008 3:26 PM PST
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Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 21, 2008 8:59 PM PST
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maybe just a little high
I think I pulled my swagger muscle...
by BawLa on
Nov 22, 2008 5:47 PM PST
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According to Boras quote
They want at least 6 years and $18-20M per year. So that bid would bring a smile to his face.
Frankly, I thought Teixeira would want more like $23-25M per year for like 10 years, close to A-Rod range.
6 years at $18-20M is attractive to me, more so than getting Sabathia, as the rumored Giants bid for Sabathia is in the same range as Teixeira. If I had my druthers, I would just sit out and not get any high priced free agent, but if the Giants insist on throwing big money out, I like the Sabathia rumor, we would have a super rotation if that happened, but now like getting Teixeira more.
I wonder what Boras would think of a shorter contract, in the 4-5 year range but for more money per, say the $23M range, maybe 4 years at $23M plus option, or 5 years at $21M, kind of like what the Dodgers did for Furcal. That would not interfere with signing Cain or Lincecum long term, and buy us time to move Villalona more leisurely up the farm system and hopefully take over when Teixeira leaves, plus maybe move him back to 3B full-time and play there instead before moving to 1B, depending on need and internal development.
Teixeira does fit the Giants profile better, Sabean loves defense at 1B, he would be the middle bat we are looking for, and he’s still young, plus he wouldn’t necessarily impede the advancement of any of our top prospects if Angel can still play 3B, or just minimally for 1B, as Teixeira should be tradeable when/if Villalona is ready, whereas we did not announce that we are looking for a starting pitcher.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Nov 21, 2008 3:38 PM PST
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Please forward this information to...
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 21, 2008 6:41 PM PST
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Remember when $20M/year seemed like a lot of money?
I remember thinking, sure, Bonds is great, but is he worth $20M a year?
Teixeira’s good…but he’s sure no Barry Bonds.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Nov 21, 2008 5:01 PM PST
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If he’d take that deal, I’d be happy with it.
by The Double Deuce on
Nov 21, 2008 5:35 PM PST
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Actually...
There’s about a 10% chance that would come back to haund the Giants,
Actually, the odds are more like 2-4 percent for the 6th pick of the second round, depending on how many supplemental first round picks there are. It’s 10 percent chance for the back of the first round, at least according to my study, and dips to around 5 percent for the start of the supplemental first round, and just keeps going down from there.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Nov 21, 2008 1:55 PM PST
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Can you link to your study? You refer to it a lot but I’m not sure I’ve read it.
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 21, 2008 1:57 PM PST
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I've posted it a number of times recently because of this..
Here it is again: http://sfgiants.scout.com/2/343576.html
First, I will note that for my study, I had separated stars vs. good, but since then have decided that it was best to just add the two together and call it good whenever I try to explain it to people, partly because that would be clearer to people, partly because batting average is not that great a metric to use (but the only one available to me at the time). Thus the odds for good players that I quote are from the Stars/Good category in my study.
I will also note here that my study showed 10.8% for the last third of the first round, not the 10% that Grant noted and I mentioned, as I didn’t see the need to correct that, it was close enough to convey that the odds are rather slim, even in the first round, which is my main conclusion of my study that I’ve been trying to get people to understand.
In addition, the range 31-90 covers around where the 2nd round pick would come, so the numbers I quote above is because I still have my data and can quote numbers from there that I’ve never written about.
The way I grouped the data was to calculate the stats by each 10 picks, then use statistical tools (hypothesis testing) to see whether the 10 picks was statistically significantly different from the group ahead of it.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Nov 21, 2008 3:19 PM PST
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You might want to check out this study, which comes to pretty much the same conclusions but has tons of detailed tables and different ways of approaching the data.
by Evan on
Nov 21, 2008 5:42 PM PST
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Yeah, draft picks are great
but people should really read Philly’s study. Once you start talking about second round picks, you’re basically getting guys like Jose Castillo.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 1:02 AM PST
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Well, here’s the thing about those second-round picks. Your typical second round in the draft consists of three or four Jose Castillos, 20 guys who aren’t even as good as Jose Castillo, maybe a Jacque Jones or Randy Wolf … and one Chase Utley or Brian McCann or Dan Haren or Grady Sizemore.
So the average value of the picks is almost negligible; but the value of picking one of those superstars is astronomical. It’s a 1 in 30 shot, but when it comes in, it can transform your organization. My takeaway is that rather than treating second-round picks like they’re no big deal, teams should devote themselves to finding some way, through scouting or other analysis, of increasing their odds of taking the right player.
by Evan on
Nov 22, 2008 4:39 AM PST
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The point I bring up in every draft thread, sorry:
If the Giants wanted to trade Nick Noonan right now, they could surely get an above-average reliever, if not a half-decent position player. So even if Noonan is the second coming of Jose Castillo, or even if he never takes a major league at-bat, he has given his team some sort of latent value. That’s a point these studies neglect when they use WARP or other stats as the sole indicator of “value” or “success.” The Giants used Joe Fontenot to help get to the World Series, but he ranks as a first-round failure for the Giants in studies like this.
by Grant on
Nov 22, 2008 9:04 AM PST
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No one is claiming
that someone like Castillo has absolutely no value. Guys like Castillo, or Bobby Kielty, or whichever utility infielder or 4th outfielder you prefer, do have value. Just not the value some people to ascribe to the 2nd round picks.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 1:47 PM PST
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This is true...
But I don’t think it’s the value of being a 4th OF or utility infielder that Grant’s talking about here — it’s the perceived value of those players as prospects, and how that perception can be cashed in through the trade market.
Joe Fontenot didn’t have great stats in the minors, but his pedigree (tools, draft position, etc.) allowed him to be packaged for Robb Nen. Whether he, or Noonan, or Castillo, will ever be good in the majors (or even as just a 25th guy on a roster) is actually inconsequential if you use that perceived value to trade them for known value before they ever reach the majors.
The only issue I find with Grant’s point (or what I perceive as Grant’s point) is that cashing in on that perceived value relies on a GM knowing which guys are worth keeping and which are somewhat overrated and should be traded. It’s great if you can pull it off, but Sabes has shown us that playing that game can be a little like playing Russian Roulette — you may get 4 or 5 clicks in a row, but eventually there’s going to a BANG!
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on
Nov 22, 2008 2:17 PM PST
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Detour.
Sabean has done really rather well at that type of evaluations of the minor league help. It surprising in a way. Now if he could be a bit stronger on reckoning which guys to protect from Rule V/Denker type moves when the 25 man has similar weaknesses they could have bridged…
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 3:02 PM PST
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Well, yeah sure, it's easy to say that teams should do better
at drafting. They should also do better at many other things.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 1:48 PM PST
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we need power. hudson only hit 8 homers last year, and you want to bring that piece of shit to AT&T Park? that move is stupid and doesn’t make any sense, which means sabean will do it. FUCK!
by serrapadre716 on
Nov 21, 2008 2:04 PM PST
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to be fair, Hudson only played in 105 games. To be unfair, 6 of the 8 homeruns were hit at home and on the road he had only two homeruns in 226 atbats. Why do we want him again??
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Nov 21, 2008 3:10 PM PST
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Remind me again how many HRs Giants second basemen hit last year?
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 5:50 PM PST
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Velez hit one!
by FairweatherFan on
Nov 21, 2008 7:27 PM PST
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my rebuttal
Orlando Hudson seems the type of player tailor-made to evoke my cunningly acerbic wit (or less charitably, my clever blogger know-it-all snark). A 31 year old 2nd baseman whose offense is certainly a product of his home field and whose last season ended as a result of injury hardly strikes one as a desirable free agent target. However, despite the obvious setup, I cautiously approve of the Giants’ interest in Hudson.
Allow me to voice my concerns before I delve into why I like Hudson. Baseball players not named Omar Vizquel peak as defenders in their early 20’s. The defensive decline which occurs proportionally with age may be gradual or abrupt but it is inevitable. In terms of offense, Hudson will not post an OPS above 800 (as he has the past several season) if he signs with the Giants. Not only does he lose the offense inflating environs of Arizona but he also is convalescing from an injury that saps power. He additionally had a subpar defensive season last year (more later)
I do, as previously mentioned, approve of the Giants interest in Hudson despite my voiced misgivings. Orlando Hudson is a remarkable defensive player He has posted the following +/- defensive numbers since 2003 (Credit to Chris at baycity ball for compiling these numbers):
Year +/-
2003 +22
2004 +35
2005 +20
2006 +13
2007 +20
2008 -4
Since each whole number above 0 in this system represents .8 run saved, Hudson has saved at least 16 runs above average in 4 of the last 6 seasons. In the presence of offensive adequacy, those numbers represent not only an elite player but an affordable one (a player with stellar offense and adequate defense would be amongst the highest paid in the league) . Now, perhaps, his last season doesn’t represent an aberration. Perhaps age has sapped him of the qualities that made him so talented in the field. But honestly, on the free agent market, every top tier player comes with risk. I would rather pay Hudson 10 million/ year for 5 years than whatever bloated sum Teixeira receives.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on
Nov 21, 2008 4:03 PM PST
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is your cautious approval contingent on the Giants signing/trading for a bigger bat in 2009?
by BigO on
Nov 21, 2008 4:17 PM PST
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not really...
One major problem confronting the Giants is that offense on the FA and trade market is just too damn expensive (for instance Manny Ram. is going to be paid far more than he is actually worth because his defense destroys a significant amount of the value he generates on offense) Unless you are the Red Sox or the Yankees and can afford to ignore cost-effectiveness to some extent, you have to grow your position players at home to stand a chance at being a playoff team.
The Giants are not constructed to win in 2009. We need to start accumulating reasonably priced wins this season (it doesn’t matter if they are on offense or defense) so that maybe next year when our prospects develop more we can afford the high-priced talent to push us over the top.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on
Nov 21, 2008 4:28 PM PST
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Who the hell is that?
I appreciate that Hudson used to be awesome, but his 2008 numbers frighten me. And if I’m paying a premium for 2B defense, that 2B had better be on the right side of 30, and he’d better have a pretty strong history of health.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:01 PM PST
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Wow Grant is the little one and the misses staying with grandma, or somthing? Or are you just realy passionate about this topic?
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 5:08 PM PST
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Wow Grant is the little one and the misses staying with grandma, or somthing?
I don’t get this.
And, no, I’m just bored at work.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:13 PM PST
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You know, the more I try and figure out what “Wow Grant is the little one and the misses staying with grandma, or somthing?” means, the more I think you just copied and pasted something I wrote that was posted on this site.
I think you were probably surprised at the seemingly snotty tone of “Who the hell is that?”, but that was just a joke based on “xanthan” having an actual first name.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:22 PM PST
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The alarm are not logical, people.
The alarm are not logical.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 5:24 PM PST
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Winn, who’s averaged about 14 in park homer a year over the last 5 seasons
holy shit that would be awesome.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:25 PM PST
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Furcal would be a amazing addition to any lineup and he’s plausible seeking a 9+ year portrait worth 13 million rupee annually.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:26 PM PST
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Here's the question we should really be asking right now.
I’d amass to say, the only coach who has met or exceeded expectations as far as the power stories are concerned is Jon Bowker , and he wasn’t even a gu. Why?WHYYYYYYYYY?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:29 PM PST
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wow...
I am out of the mccovey humor loop. Is this from the same source as “my favorite type of pie is ‘insert pie type’”?
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on
Nov 21, 2008 5:30 PM PST
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yeah, Grant linked it above.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:31 PM PST
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I’m so dropping a…
Well, I’d amass to say…
…the next time I’m trying to sound smart at a party. If confronted, I’ll claim it’s from Troilus and Cressida.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:33 PM PST
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Troilus and Criseyde > Troilus and Cressida
/english major
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:38 PM PST
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You’re talking about the Shakespeare play. I’m talking about the play from Charles Dikkens, the well-known Dutch author.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:42 PM PST
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Since from thee going, he went wilful-slow,
Towards thee I’ll run, and give him leave to go.
Ohhh shit, yeah
Works for me.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:57 PM PST
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T & C
Hated it. Which is funny, because I think the trojan war is cool.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 21, 2008 8:37 PM PST
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There was some question as to whether or The Texas Rangers are trying to destroy the tenth core since 1990 to win the World Series after finishing with the surest idea in the majors.
If only they had finished with the third-surest idea in the majors, the core could have been saved! Damn you, Texas Rangers!
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 6:51 PM PST
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Instead they had to send Hillary Swank in to clean up the mess!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 22, 2008 12:04 AM PST
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I was just making an observation that it seems to me that you are commenting in this thread more than others.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 5:54 PM PST
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Ah. Just bored out of my skull at work. That, and I always seem to pay more attention to the site when I’m not watching 21 hours of baseball each week. It’s funny how that works.
by Grant on
Nov 21, 2008 5:55 PM PST
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I thought McC was your job, how do you have time for anything else but us? Joking aside, I think its bull spit that Tim Dierkis gets paid to run MLBTR!
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 21, 2008 5:59 PM PST
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Dierkes found a niche and worked his ass off. He’s cool. Plus, he links to me. That’s also cool.
by Grant on
Nov 22, 2008 9:12 AM PST
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Oh I have not problem wiht Tim either, I am just jeolous that his job entails taking baseball all day.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 22, 2008 11:51 AM PST
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I’ve read some really respected internet baseball-types slagging MLBTR, and I just don’t get it. I don’t know why it bothers me so much, but it does.
Someday I’ll be paid to write about baseball all day. Oh, and I’ll sell six screenplays, and my album will be #1. And my discovery of a living Yeti will make headlines around the world.
by Grant on
Nov 22, 2008 12:08 PM PST
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And at the point you are writing about baseball all day I will be just as jealous of you, because I will still be a lowley jeweler selling my wares to people. I totally appreciate what you and Tim do, it makes my life a million times easier not having to do all the research. But I still wish I could do all the research and have it be my everyday gig, but you and Tim get me through the day half the time.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 22, 2008 2:17 PM PST
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+109
Rampant jealousy is a terrible thing.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 3:04 PM PST
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I figured it out!!!
Wow Grant is the little one and the misses staying with grandma, or somthing?
Should be:
Wow Grant, are your baby and your wife staying with grandma or something?
I spent a ton of time trying to figure out how Grant could possibly be both the little one and the misses.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 22, 2008 12:08 AM PST
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Ohhhh
Here’s how my weird mind understood it:
Grant: And if I’m paying a premium for 2B defense, that 2B had better be on the right side of 30, and he’d better have a pretty strong history of health.
jbowl: Wow Grant is the little one and the misses staying with grandma, or somthing? Or are you just really passionate about this topic?
Cookyman explanation: Grant is the youngest of his siblings, and therefore was the most attached to their grandma – so now that grandma has died, he really misses her. Grandma died because she was old (wrong side of 30) and didn’t have a strong history of health, so Grant, traumatized by her death, is really passionate about not signing an over 30 2B who doesn’t have a strong history of health.
And it didn’t even take me a long time to get, nor did it strike me as a weird thing to say. I actually thought it’s a pretty decent joke.
I’m weird.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 22, 2008 3:38 AM PST
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That's about how I read it too...
Although you took it way further. Pretty impressive I’d say.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
by tobias on
Nov 22, 2008 9:51 AM PST
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Aright, sorry I am taking a Wri 121 class in school right now, and to say the least Wri is not my strong suit. So from now on I will do my best to have proper sentence structure with most everything I type. Should have read “Wow Grant, is the misses (Mrs. Grant) and the little one (his baby) at grandmas house, you sure seem to have more time on your hands to reply in posts.”
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on
Nov 22, 2008 12:01 PM PST
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err...
Credit to xanthan at mccovey chronicles (this is what happens when I cut and paste from my site)
You raise a number of good points about Hudson’s Red flags. I guess I have become sufficiently jaded by the whole free agency process into thinking that in ANY new contract you are lucky if the last couple years return you a modicum of value. So, if Hudson sucks as a 36 year old 2nd baseman, it’s to be expected. This attitude may not be a correct one.
I’d honestly rather pay for defense rather than offense. Having to break the piggy bank for a Teixeira type player strikes me as pretty silly. Dunn is even worse as he give a large amount of his value back on defense.
Of course, if Hudson were to suck next year defensively I would look pretty stupid.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on
Nov 21, 2008 5:16 PM PST
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Your site?
I didn’t know you had one. Where’s the link? All the cool kids are putting ’em in their sigs these days.
Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on
Nov 21, 2008 11:02 PM PST
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my site...
is Giants Cove (http://www.mvn.com/giantscove) Think of it as Mccovey Chronicles without the humor, readership, frequency of posting and terrible analysis.
I would add my link to my name like your shining example but alas, the technical skill eludes me.
Flossing a dead horse
by kenshin1 on
Nov 22, 2008 1:43 PM PST
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I’ve always wondered what this site would be if it didn’t have terrible analysis. I’ll check it out.
by Grant on
Nov 22, 2008 1:54 PM PST
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The problem isn't that Hudson would suck
as a 36 year old. With FAs, as you pointed out, it’s pretty much expected that at the end of the contract, the last year or so, the guy is going to be overpaid.
The problem is if he sucks as a 33 year old, or a 34 year old, and you’re stuck with an overpaid unmovable 2b in physical decline struggling with a variety of injuries.
And 2b is one of the more physically punishing positions.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 1:14 AM PST
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Do you think it’s more punishing than SS or that the players that tend to play 2B are, I don’t want to say less athletic, but different physically than those who play SS?
/deer head
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 22, 2008 7:50 AM PST
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I don't know.
I should have been clearer. I’m comparing the wear and tear of playing 2b and 1b, since kenshin was talking about Hudson vs Teixeira.
I wish people would do some studies on this. Even if the studies were nothing more than doing a poll of MLB players who have played.
I do know that Nate Silver IIRC has argued that 2b have an ugly decline phase because they are less athletic than SS, ie they tend to be guys who couldn’t play SS.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 22, 2008 1:53 PM PST
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Yea..
2B tend to be people who were SS and were moved off the position (see Noonan) or 3B who loose the arm to be there. I have no data to back this up, but I’d guess that your top 2B in the majors will be players drafted at 2B, and then your next tier will have been people moved to the position.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on
Nov 22, 2008 2:34 PM PST
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Just because of you supposition I went looked at the early careers of H.OF. Second base men.
Out of 18 H.O.F. Send basemen. Only 6 spent significant documented playing time off second base in there early MLB years.
Jackie Robinson spent he Rookie year at first.
Ryne Sandberg his first full year had 133 games at third.
Red Schoendiest spent 118 games his rookie season in the OF.
Roger Honsby 316games at short, 155 games at third and 26 games at second in his first 5 seasons.
Nap Lajoie spent his rookie year at first base.
Frankie Frish played over 200 games in his first 3 seasons at third. As Giant … go figure.
Only 3 of them started after the 30’s. I was kind of shocked. I thought I wold see a couple more that spent a good amount of time before being settled in at second.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 3:55 PM PST
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Wow we have timer now that automatically posts?
I figured when I walked away it would just time out. Any how…
Nap Lajoie’s link.
Jackie Robinson’s link.
Honsby’s link.
Frankie Fisch’s link.
Also in the interests of clarity I found nothing to document the early playing time of Frank Grant.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 4:13 PM PST
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I think SS comparing 2nd base man to SS is slightly unfair. ( I am not saying or inferring you are by the way.) Usually the SS are the most athletic of players available and its kind of smacks of ragging on a good Reliever because he doesn’t throw 170+ IP like some good starters can.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 22, 2008 3:12 PM PST
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Didn't you..
Put together a study on how many “great players” tailed off in their early to mid 30s and 2B are the most likely to? I’d say that it’s a bit less punishing than SS, but the players are less athletic.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on
Nov 22, 2008 2:32 PM PST
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this is why I think that, if we are not trying to make a big leap to 88-90 wins this year, it makes more sense to go after someone like the Cubs Ronny Cedeno. He’s not a FA until 2012, he’s a slick fielder, and he won’t totally embarrass you at the plate (Even if he did, you could replace him with Burriss). And per rotoworld: “The Cubs would likely be willing to part with him this winter if some team wants to make him a regular shortstop”. Anyone think the Cubs would give is Ronny and Jason Marquis for Winn?
by BigO on
Nov 23, 2008 2:22 PM PST
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If such an offer was even near the table I don’t see why the Giatns wouldn’t be all over that.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 24, 2008 8:34 AM PST
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by implication
you’re saying that the Cubs would be very unlikely to accept such a deal, right? Or is just the fact that there’s been nary a rumour about it, so it’s not worth worrying about?
by BigO on
Nov 24, 2008 9:18 AM PST
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Did not mean that implication.
Meant to imply it would be logical to me. Given Sabean’s aversion to picking up other clubs farm hands in trades for 25 roster players I can’t see why he would refuse such an offer. Even if Marquis was substituted for a farm arm it seems fair to me.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 24, 2008 11:21 AM PST
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I don’t think I’d get particularly angry if they signed Hudson, but I’d rather they pass.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:08 PM PST
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Hudson scares me
I can see him becoming Luis Castillo very very quickly. A good hitting 2b, with good defense who declines RAPIDLY due to injuries….
Granted Hudson hits better, and was a better fielder, but I think you get my point. :(
If it was a 1 or 2 year deal that would be nice. But I’m sure Hudson could get better than that despite his recent injury history.
by Hobbes2d on
Nov 21, 2008 5:12 PM PST
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can see him becoming Luis Castillo very very quickly
I would much rather have Uggla or someone like that that is younger with more potential. Uggla could hit 25+ with the Giants. Though Uggla’s defense is iffy (especially in the spotlight i.e. all star game), his bat could overcome his glove. Three years younger than Hudson, get Uggla.. Sorry Frandsen…
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on
Nov 21, 2008 9:41 PM PST
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Furcal Bay Area Bound?
The Rafael Furcal sweepstakes, accelerating at a rapid pace, appears to be shaping up as a Bay Area showdown between the A’s and Giants.
“It’s moving pretty fast,” Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told FOXSports.com on Friday. “I don’t know if we’re going to be in it or not.”
The Dodgers want to retain Furcal, who is a favorite of manager Joe Torre, but might be reluctant to meet the player’s desire for a four-year contract.
A team’s willingness to offer Furcal a fourth year likely will be the difference-maker in the negotiations, major-league sources say.
When the Dodgers signed Furcal prior to the 2006 season, they gave him three years and $39 million. He is 31 now, and coming off back surgery.
Both the A’s and Giants were satisfied by what they saw in Furcal’s medical records, sources say.
Both teams also might want to move sooner rather than later on Furcal, fearing that a delay could draw the Braves and Cubs into the negotiations.
by wilriv21 on
Nov 21, 2008 5:16 PM PST
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Sabes is moving fast this offseason.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:22 PM PST
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Sabes is moving fast this offseason.
It is easy to talk fast. Lets hope he doesn’t bury us just as fast.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on
Nov 21, 2008 9:33 PM PST
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Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on
Nov 21, 2008 11:22 PM PST
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For a second, I thought that said, “Both the A’s and Giants were satisfied by what they saw in Furcal’s mediocre records.”
by Natto on
Nov 21, 2008 5:33 PM PST
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Well, that’s true too.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:38 PM PST
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Sabean’s just driving up the price for the A’s.
He’s wily, you see.
Take THAT, Billy Beane!
by The Double Deuce on
Nov 21, 2008 5:36 PM PST
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I’d be perfectly happy if we don’t sign any big name free agents this off-season. I think a very good case can be made against all of them. I’ve always been a fan of both Furcal and Sabathia, but I’ll probably be relieved if we don’t end up with either of them.
I know a lot of people love Texeira, but I don’t see how getting into a three-way bidding war with the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox is going to end well for us.
by oldjacket on
Nov 21, 2008 5:34 PM PST
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Teixeira and I are just friends. Nothing more.
by Natto on
Nov 21, 2008 5:35 PM PST
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Oh come on, we all know you like like him.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 21, 2008 5:38 PM PST
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Eh
The Orioles are definitely in that bidding war as well, and possibly even the Nats if Kasten feels like opening up the pocketbook.
Plus I would think the East Coast teams have an advantage with Tex being from Baltimore and his wife being from Georgia….
by Hobbes2d on
Nov 21, 2008 5:39 PM PST
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supposedly the Red Sox will spare no expense in signing Texeira. Considering he wants to play on the east coast the Giants have no shot at him.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Nov 22, 2008 5:00 AM PST
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