Trade Value of Randy Winn
The Redsox just traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez. Crisp is like a younger, slightly worse Randy Winn. He is due <$6M next year with a small ($500K) buyout for 2010.
Marcel projects Crisp with a .321 wOBA and Winn with a .329 (both.8+ reliability). I think Winn is probably the better defender, but it's hard to say because Crisp usually plays more CF. Still, he's certainly cheaper and younger than Winn.
Ramirez is a solidly average bullpen arm.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Are you asking a question?
Just wondering if the context/ intent of your post was to ask the community what we might get in exchange for Randy Winn or ________?
FTR, I am fine with trading Winn. I do not think he should be considered part of our mid-term plans so let’s deal him while we might get something of mid- or long-term value in return. (Ditto Molina, etc.)
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on
Nov 19, 2008 10:16 AM PST
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it's more like a
Blanket answer to “lets trade Winn for X” where X is some good player we would actually want.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 19, 2008 11:58 AM PST
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The defense is debatable, but I think it’s safe to say Winn is clearly the better hitter.
I believe Winn has slightly better trade value, although not by much. Mainly because of consistency, seeing as Crisp was much worse in 06-07 than he was in 08, whereas Winn’s performance the last two years was stable and in line with his career averages.
Then again Chris Dial’s OPD ratings have Winn at 15.3 and Crisp at -17.52, which obviously makes Winn out to be a much better player.
I don’t think that’s really a true measure of their relative values. That just shows the degree of which defensive stats can vary.
Then again, Crisp does have an extra year on his contract, which is probably attractive.
I think we could trade Winn to a team like the Braves and get an nice package of undervalued prospects. A deal I’ve mentioned a few times is Brent Lillibridge and Chuck James for Winn. ATL gets a productive, versatile OF and all they give up is prospects who have floudnered in the last year.
I still think James has a decent chance to be a good pitcher (he was in 06 and 07) and a change of scenery might help that. Lillibridge still has the talent and we certainly have a vacancy at SS. It’s not like ATL has plans for him with Yunel seemingly in place
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 19, 2008 10:21 AM PST
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Will a change of scenery fix James’ shredded arm?
/snark
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
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Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:25 AM PST
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I'm not too familiar with his injury status
but he was still semi-effective in AAA last year. A FIP in the mid 3’s
Obviously I don’t know, but perhaps his injury could improve as time passes. Even still, he pitched effectively enough in AAA last year
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 19, 2008 10:28 AM PST
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I think he had a torn labrum, but I might be wrong. It was a shoulder injury I believe.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:30 AM PST
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Brent Lillibridge and Chuck James for Winn.
I could see that happening. Or a Cedeno & Winn centered swap.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 11:18 AM PST
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I think this would be great for the Giants...
An interesting possibility. Not sure it’s something ATL would do considering their OF situation (they have three ok starters and lots on the way (Schafer, Heyward, Jones), but Lillibridge is someone I’ve followed for a couple years and I think he could use a change of scenery. For those that don’t follow PIT/ATL, Lillibridge was a SS prospect in the PIT organization that went to ATL in the LaRoche deal. He’s continued to play some SS but also spent time in CF @ Richmond this year. He has lots of speed. In Chuck James, we would have a nice #4 or #5 SP to hold a rotation spot until some of our young guns are ready for the Show. Hmmm…
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on
Nov 19, 2008 11:39 AM PST
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Chuck James’ arm is probably shot.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 11:44 AM PST
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James finally has shoulder surgery: According to The Sports Xchange notes: LHP Chuck James has finally had the shoulder surgery he’s been trying to avoid for two seasons. Dr. James Andrews repaired the slight tear in James’s rotator cuff and cleaned up the frayed labrum. He will be out for the first half of 2009 at least, and possibly longer.
(Updated 09/16/2008).
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 11:47 AM PST
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maybe he’ll suck less after the surgery.
by oldjacket on
Nov 19, 2008 11:53 AM PST
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Probably not. Torn rotator cuff and frayed labrum is bad news.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 19, 2008 12:18 PM PST
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ow, didn't realize James' injury was quite that serious.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on
Nov 19, 2008 12:29 PM PST
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that's definitely rough
but Lillibridge and another player could certain be options. The Braves have a deep farm system and as long as we stay from the unattainable gems (Schaffer, Gorkys – who I hate, Heyward, Hanson, Locke, etc.) we could probably find a decent match
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 19, 2008 11:56 AM PST
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So someone to keep Foppert company?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 12:11 PM PST
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If
If James is healthy, I could go for him and Lillibridge for Winn in a big way. Tim Lincecum would likely enjoy playing with Brett again, having played with him growning up. It would seem the bloom is off the rose with regard to both these players, but I like the idea of buying low — and selling Randy high.
Randy does have a limited no-trade clause though, so speculating he will go to a particular team without knowing if it is on his no-trade list is even more spectuative than usual. At least that’s what I would speculate.
by sharksrog on
Nov 19, 2008 12:59 PM PST
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Randy is high?
that ’splains some things…
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on
Nov 19, 2008 1:38 PM PST
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I thought they have the same amount of time left on their contracts
Crisp just has a team option for 2010, for like $8M, which I assume wouldn’t be picked up
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 19, 2008 11:57 AM PST
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I believe Ramirez has a little over 2 years MLB service time in. Not even arbitration eligible yet.
Crisp has a bit over 5 years service time and is under contract for 1 year 5.75MM and club option for 8MM.
As always I stand to corrected if I am read thing incorrectly of figuring poorly.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 12:05 PM PST
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crisp should be a much better defender in any year but 2008. without so many injuries he should bounceback to a top-10 CF. winn’s offense (the last three years, at least) should play better at the corners.
i think the chicago teams might be good fits for winn, or maybe the mets. the AL west, NL east, and the NL west don’t seem to have any fits. who else is out there? the giants have a pretty crowded OF for a rebuilder…
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Nov 19, 2008 10:30 AM PST
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I just wanted to partially dispel the myth that Winn can’t defend in CF.
Anytime he’s logged significant time in CF, he’s been above average. In ‘04 he was a +12 and in ’06 (in a smaller 441 innings) he was a +12. I had his ’05 plus/minus scores in CF but I can’t find them, but I think they were average to slightly above.
I have no problem thinking he could be an average CF defensively if given the chance.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:38 AM PST
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yes please
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on
Nov 19, 2008 10:41 AM PST
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Winn was, and still is, suitable for CF
Scott was not that necessary of a pick up. 20/20 Hindsight and what have you.
On Coco, he is a fantastic fielder. Godawful of a hitter, but not Julio Lugo bad. Ellsbury is a suitable replacement for the Sawks.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 19, 2008 10:48 AM PST
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Godawful of a hitter
I wouldn’t go that far, but his 2005 seems a looooong time ago.
by Grant on
Nov 19, 2008 10:55 AM PST
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That was based on observation on every Coco AB I watched. No STATS required for this assumption. But I must say he was a great pickup for the Sox (at the time) when Johnny Dangerous shaved his beard and left town.
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 19, 2008 11:08 AM PST
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given the contract status
what makes you think we could get more for Rowand?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 19, 2008 11:59 AM PST
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I believe he is think additional gain is had by not having Errant Throwin’ ( E.T.) take a corner infield spot for 2-3 years at the end of his contract with us. Just a guess.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 12:09 PM PST
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Perceived value would be my guess.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 19, 2008 12:19 PM PST
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would take a broken fungo bat if it allowed SF to be relieved of Rowand’s contract.
by wilriv21 on
Nov 19, 2008 12:27 PM PST
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more specifically
I’d give up a Pucetas/Martinez/Snyder along with Rowand, just to get rid of Rowand’s contract. And probably even more than that, if asked politely.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on
Nov 22, 2008 8:06 AM PST
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I think so too
but this is where you have to be careful with the OPD for Winn vs. Crisp, since Crisp is playing CF (harder). I think Winn would probably be an average CF, but since the majority of his value is his + defense, this actually makes him worser relative to CC (but still a little better)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 19, 2008 12:01 PM PST
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Yeah, things should even out since OPD is judging Winn against other RF’s offensively.
’08 Winn – .306/.363/.426
NL CF – .267/.334/.426
NL RF – .271/.344/.444
Looking at the numbers, I was surprised to see that Winn was basically a league average hitter for right fielders in the NL last year. You hear a lot about how his bat doesn’t play for the corner but it’s closer than most think. He’d be an above average hitter in CF. If he could still defend at +10 in CF he’d be very good.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 12:16 PM PST
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Freddie too
Winn would probably be better in center, but Freddie probably wouldn’t be hideous. He’s got a better arm too.
Kyle Nicholson: the fyootch
by stealth snail on
Nov 19, 2008 12:19 PM PST
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That is if he’s still F-Lew post-bunion
Kyle Nicholson: the fyootch
by stealth snail on
Nov 19, 2008 12:21 PM PST
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Freddie
Freddie seems to have greatly improved his fielding, but it was just a couple of years ago that he was move from center field to the corners (in the minors) because he was having a hard time taking good routes to the ball in center.
by sharksrog on
Nov 19, 2008 1:01 PM PST
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Lewis does not like to be called "Freddie"
The reason is listed here in this ESPN article.
It is well worth the read. The reason is listed in the “Miss Peaches Dream” segment of the article. After reading this, I’ve tried to respect that, and I cringe every time I hear someone call him that at the park.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 19, 2008 1:49 PM PST
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I knew that
I knew that Fred doesn’t like to be called “Freddie,” but I forgot. Sorry about that.
by sharksrog on
Nov 20, 2008 3:00 PM PST
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Well crap
If that’s all we could get, hold onto Winn and hope some team is willing to overpay at the deadline.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 19, 2008 10:46 AM PST
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Or keep him and pick up a draft pick after the season?
Yes we did!
by Goofus on
Nov 19, 2008 12:10 PM PST
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Yes, that too.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Nov 19, 2008 12:19 PM PST
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Not really related to the subject of the post, but I continue to be unimpressed by Dayton Moore
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 19, 2008 10:49 AM PST
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Join the club!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:50 AM PST
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At least his name is cool!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 19, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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He is Dayton Moore
That’s what his ex said
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 19, 2008 11:09 AM PST
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I'd rather be his brother
Gettinlaid Moore
Yes we did!
by Goofus on
Nov 19, 2008 12:11 PM PST
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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL…
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on
Nov 19, 2008 1:47 PM PST
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My Last Name
Is Moore.
And my Badge @ work says “I F Moore”
Alas, ’tis only partially true.
by FairweatherFan on
Nov 21, 2008 9:24 PM PST
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Be patient
Might be front end of a deal to then send DeJesus to Chicago
by wilriv21 on
Nov 19, 2008 10:51 AM PST
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And get a reliever back to replace the ones he traded for Jacobs/Crisp!
BRILLIANT!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Nov 19, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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/trades DeJesus for Reed Johnson
Brilliant!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM PST
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are the members of the Unimpressed by Dayton Moore Club identical to the Romosexuals?
is there a conncetion?
by oldjacket on
Nov 19, 2008 10:52 AM PST
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Separate clubs, but we both get discounts at the Sizzler when we present our membership cards.
Join today!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 19, 2008 10:54 AM PST
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/ flashes sig
V
V
V
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 19, 2008 11:10 AM PST
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flashes sig
V
I read that as “flashes big V”…
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 19, 2008 11:59 AM PST
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bam

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on
Nov 19, 2008 12:23 PM PST
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Whose “V” are you flashing?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 12:14 PM PST
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Winn's value
Winn’s trade value isn’t high, because I think most teams see him as a corner outfielder with no power.
by oldjacket on
Nov 19, 2008 11:14 AM PST
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I don’t think anyone offered much for him the last two years that he was supposedly available if the price was right or whatever. $9 M/yr for Winn is pretty crazy, OF is such a deep position. We should have traded Sanchez to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, and not signed Rowand.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on
Nov 19, 2008 4:24 PM PST
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One problem...
is that Fred Lewis’s foot surgery isn’t guaranteed to heal by opening day. Depends on how extensive it was. Read here for more gruesome details. Point is, the Giants might wait to see how he progresses this winter before trading one of their outfielders.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on
Nov 19, 2008 11:23 AM PST
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If the right deal for Winn came along, I think there are enough stop-gap options for LF (Roberts, Bowker, Ort, Horotwitz) until Fred is fully healed that we could still move Winn if we wanted to.
Yes we did!
by Goofus on
Nov 19, 2008 12:13 PM PST
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I one draw back I see to compared the Crisp move a possible Winn move is Winn would have very little interest to a terminally rebuilding club like K.C. lets be honest they might be one of the few clubs would rival us, SD, & the Nat’s for more needing to rebuild in the MLB. Winn is not team controlled. He is not young. I am not too up on how will KC currently is to spend money on picks. So really what would be their motivation ?
I suspect the Crisp trade shows you more the value of solid relief pitcher under team control then it does Outfielders that has good glove work and are not know for thunder in their stick
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 19, 2008 11:24 AM PST
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Winn to Rays
Not sure he has enough bat to man RF everyday for Tampa Bay, but I’d like to see the Giants try and acquire Edwin Jackson or Jeff Niemann for the rotation.
Giants might have to add cash and/or another player, but the basis of the deal could help both teams.
Anyone know if Winn kept any roots in Tampa?
by aGIANTfan on
Nov 19, 2008 4:39 PM PST
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Dont think the Rays have anymore use for Winn
..I am sure that the Rays are happy with the Baldelli, Crawford, Upton trio. If the Giants had those three young studs, would you want to get Winn in the middle of that mix? Remember that they already traded him away in a deal for a COACH! OUCH!
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on
Nov 21, 2008 9:54 PM PST
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Baldelli's a free agent
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 21, 2008 10:41 PM PST
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Understood
But the Rays would be dumb not to resign him, especially when he will probably only cost 1-2 million
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on
Nov 22, 2008 9:06 AM PST
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Baldelli's a free agent who can't play 9 innings
And the Rays chose to pay a $4M buyout instead of picking up his $6M option.
He’s gone.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Nov 22, 2008 11:19 AM PST
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Noted
With his sickness and all, I am not too sure who would want to have him on their roster. I believe Burrell or someone like Juan Rivera would be a better fit for the Rays than Winn.
...Alawys surrounded by Angels and Dodger fans... This site keeps me sane
by Giant among Angels on
Nov 22, 2008 11:49 AM PST
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somebody asked Keith Law about Winn and Molina's value in one of his chats
he doesn’t really address Winn directly but he says:
Ross (CA): I was wondering what you estimate some of the Giant’s veterans trade value to be? It seems that Randy Winn and Bengie Molina could have some decent value if Sabean decides to shop them.
Keith Law: Molina more than Winn. If you have a non-sucky veteran catcher you don’t mind parting with, this is the time to move him. I would assume the Orioles would trade Ramon Hernandez for a fair return, with Wieters coming, and the Giants could fake it back there for a year or so while they wait for the Posey train.
by FluLikeSymptoms on
Nov 20, 2008 10:33 AM PST
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