Rafael Furcal and the San Francisco Giants: Now with Indentations, Bulletpoints, and Whathaveyou
The hottest Giant-on-free-agent-action rumor has to do with Rafael Furcal. He’s a player who:
- is pretty good when healthy
- plays a position that, before Manny Burriss’s September hot streak, was a top priority for the Giants
That sounds…not horrible. It beats the yearly migration of center fielders swimming upstream to mate and expire in McCovey Cove. But allow me to join Lefty and wonder what in the heck sense does Furcal make for the Giants. My guess on possible outcomes of a long-term deal:
- 5% chance that Furcal's will stay healthy and perform at a high level for the duration of the contract
- 53% chance that Furcal will do OK at first, but he'll struggle through injuries and eventually become ineffective. (In scouting parlance: a durhaming)
- 42% chance that Furcal will stink right away, whether through injury or aging. (In scouting parlance: an alfonzotion)
Now, you can live with the middle option if you’re sure that your team can contend. If, say, the Red Sox didn’t have anyone but Julio Lugo, they would be justified in throwing away pieces of the 2011 budget to get a return on 2009. The Giants just might contend next season, but they probably won’t. They probably won’t for at least two seasons, and that’s being generous. So the Giants are hoping that either
- Furcal, along with one additional free agent and a spontaneous improvement from the rest of the offense, will make the Giants contenders in 2009
- Furcal will stay healthy and effective for the length of the deal, and help the Giants whenever they start winning more games than they lose
If the Giants were to sign Furcal, it wouldn’t be the end of the world because he plays one of the two thinnest positions in the organization. As much as I’m rooting for Burriss, I’d love to see him get 500 at-bats in AAA before anointing him the starter at short or second, and if Burriss fails, there is absolutely no backup plan. So a shortstop free agent makes sense. But both "1" and "2" above are different shades of delusional.
Another thing that isn’t really part of the discussion: Furcal’s 2007 was kind of miserable. Sure, after Furcal’s back injury, he had 143 good at-bats last year. But when you have three data points – a bad year, followed by a back injury, followed by a small sample of at-bats – it wouldn’t make sense to focus on the one that makes you feel all fuzzy.
If the Giants sign Furcal, I’ll feel the same way I feel when they signed Zito and Rowand. Gee, I hope it works out. Gee, he seems like a modest improvement, all things being equal. Golly, that is a big contract with about a 5% chance of being a good deal. The worst part is that 95% of the time, I’m right every time.
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I think he makes some sense it the deal is right and he’s healthy. Giants’ SS had the worst OPS in the National League in 2008. Together, all the shortstops the Giants ran out to play, OPS’ed less than .600 on the year. Only Baltimore was worse.
And, as you pointed out, our depth at short is pretty bad. Furcal could be a bridge between now and prospects down the road.
I think if he’s healthy — the team doctors give him the OK — then he’s a pretty good option. He won’t turn this team around but SS is a major weakness on the Giants right now and I think he addresses it pretty well.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 12:37 PM PST 0 recs
And if the Giants can get Furcal between $10-12M, then it’s fair market value for him. I wouldn’t go past $12M per year.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 17, 2008 12:38 PM PST
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+1
you and your math and your logic. psh
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on
Nov 17, 2008 5:02 PM PST
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blegh
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 17, 2008 12:44 PM PST
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$12.5M/yr for that period would be all the incentive he would need.
Three years @ $12M tops, then pile on the incentives. I know, not
likely to get it done.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on
Nov 17, 2008 1:02 PM PST
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Incentive-laden as the maximum he could earn of he reached all of his PA plateaus.
by wilriv21 on
Nov 17, 2008 1:06 PM PST
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why the hell not?
Sure, he might flop. It’s not my money and he sure as hell won’t be blocking anyone.
But let’s be reasonable… more than 3/33 would probably not be good. It makes way more sense if we also go after Burrell/Dunn/Texiera as well. Just getting Furcal is like saying “TRAVIS ISHIKAWA – LEAD US TO THE PLAYOFFS”. And I saw that movie. It doesn’t end well.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Nov 17, 2008 12:44 PM PST 0 recs
Sure, he might flop. It’s not my money and he sure as hell won’t be blocking anyone.
He might block deal for J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, or Jimmy Rollins in a couple of years. That kind of fear isn’t a good way to build a roster, but it’s worth thinking about.
by Grant on
Nov 17, 2008 12:51 PM PST
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I don't think
you can just play a “man down” (no SS) for 2 years and hope that you get a better FA…. part of the reason Furcal is even affordable (assuming he is) is that he’s an injury risk. What is Rollins going to get in 2 years? 8/180?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on
Nov 17, 2008 1:07 PM PST
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Yeah, that’s a terrible way to build a roster. But we’re living it with the Zito/Sabathia logistics right now.
by Grant on
Nov 17, 2008 1:08 PM PST
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you can just play a "man down" (no SS) for 2 years and hope that you get a better FA
The New Jersey Nets beg to differ.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 17, 2008 1:12 PM PST
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only problem for the Nets is that they’re not getting that new arena in Brooklyn. I don’t care if Jay Z is his friend, I doubt Lebron wants to play in the New Jersey swamps.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Nov 17, 2008 7:03 PM PST
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those guys arent FA's for at least 2-3 yrs
so unless furcal is willing for 2 yrs (unlikely)
by Asfan4ever723 on
Nov 17, 2008 1:49 PM PST
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Ooooooh, so close!
The part where Grant said:
He might block deal for J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, or Jimmy Rollins in a couple of years.
should have been the first clue that he already knew they aren’t free agents for at least two years. Which was exactly the point he was making.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on
Nov 17, 2008 1:57 PM PST
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3/33 sounds about right
Although if the Giants were smart they’d gauge the market for Furcal first before throwing down some insane offer that’s $5-10M more than the next highest one. I’m genuinely wondering whether the sort of bidding wars we’ve seen the past few offseasons are really going to take place with lots of the big market teams struggling to sell seats and (especially) luxury boxes for ’09.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on
Nov 17, 2008 12:53 PM PST
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Agree
Anything else is just tempting fate. He may only 30 chronologically, but his body is 50.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 17, 2008 1:14 PM PST
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I’d rather see the Giants trade a Winn or Molina or Rowand for a useful minor league shortstop in the high minors.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 PM PST 0 recs
Stop that crazy talk and join us back inside the box, please.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on
Nov 17, 2008 12:54 PM PST
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sweet dreams are made of these
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Nov 17, 2008 1:13 PM PST
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Cept those guys aren't valuable enough to net something like that.
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by iamawesomer on
Nov 17, 2008 1:37 PM PST
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More like this Gm does not trade a guy off the 25 man roster for someone not already on a MLB 25 roster.
If you being serious you are severally under selling Winn’s over all game. A +15 OPD according to Chris Dail puts him right along Dunn and Burrell. What do you think the odds are a team could get them for 1 yr 9MM deal? Let alone possible draft pick(s) if player in question was to sign elsewhere next winter.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 17, 2008 1:55 PM PST
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I think you're underselling useful AA-AAA shortstops
Have you seen how bad shortstops are? They hit about .272/.327/.392 this year. If you had a talented close to the majors SS who you’d control for 6 years would you trade him for a one year rental RF when you can just go sign one instead, or probably trade for Brian Giles who is like Randy Winn except better, unless you’re calling Winn a CF, which its hard to say if he is anymore.
He’ll also be entering his age 36 season after 09 so I don’t think teams are going to be forking over picks if he turns out to be Type A. So it’s possibly one draft pick, and even then teams would have to be careful about arby.
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by iamawesomer on
Nov 17, 2008 3:07 PM PST
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Have you seen how bad shortstops are?
I’ve spent the last 2 seasons watching a legendry SS fall to age. Been forced to envy the Twin’s taking a gamble on injury question mark called Adam Everett while my Gm refused to . I cheer Ochoa and spent over 10 years witnessing LeMaster . ( A’s fans if you think Crosby is bad you aint seen nothing.) I think I have a fairly sound set of credentials for understanding bad SS play.
As for Winn and compensation. He would qualify as a Type A this winter. I am skeptical that he stays in the top tier of outfielders, first basemen and Dh’s group but it not unheard possibility. Good glove, switch hitting bat and efficient base runner. He is not a team changer in and of himself but really he is a better player then Kotsay at this point. The Cubs should could have used him RF. So could that Mets. I doubt the Yanks would have broken harted either.
The Arbitration worry mainly applies to a team like the Giants. He wants to stay here. An Acquiring team would be built for the short term so they either get another 1 year contract or get to set if they get picks. Either result would not be burdensome to a team looking to win now.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 17, 2008 9:31 PM PST
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I think teams would wait to sign Winn rather than risk a first or second round pick. I don’t see teams trampling each other over signing Randy Winn
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Nov 17, 2008 11:54 PM PST
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Let us follow the logic on Arbitration a bit.
Say it is winter 2009. Let presume Winn just keeps on being Winn. No end of ‘05 runs nor any dramatic injuries. If you want to regress him a bit I fine with that.
A) If he has been traded then he his probably on a team he likes less then the Giants. In that case the odds of him accepting arbitration go down.
B) If the team that has traded for him it probably built for the short term ( and about any team that would trade near value for him would be) the odds of a 1 year contract to fill a rooster gap is not as detrimental event as it could be to the rebuilding Giants.
c) In fact the only way a rebuilding time trades for him is extremely stupid ( lets rule that out as very unlikely for this conversation) or they don’t expect their minors to kick out a MLB replacement for 2 seasons. Again arbitration is not a deterrent to that team.
In any of those scenarios that team offers arbitration and they will either have a competent OF on a 1 year contract or one ( at least) compensation pick.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 18, 2008 9:02 AM PST
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you’re fired
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil.
by BrianBokake on
Nov 18, 2008 1:47 AM PST
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He makes sense but I’m too worried about his health for a significant long term deal.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 17, 2008 12:59 PM PST 0 recs
I’m relatively pro Furcal. He’s the best shortstop on the market who won’t cost us prospects, and the Giants were absolutely abysmal at short last year. I think it’s asking too much for both Burriss and Frandsen to pan out, and neither is likely to be the kind of player who pushes the team to a pennant.
Yes, I’m worried about Furcal’s injury history and his terrible 2007. But you only have to hit a little bit to be a worthwhile shortstop, especially with Furcal’s strong arm. I suspect he’d remain tradeable a year or two down the road, as well. Plus he can be moved to second if need be.
I’m also a little worried that if we don’t start filling some of our holes, we’re going to end up like the Pirates or somesuch, where we look at just about every player and say, “Well, he won’t make us a contender …”
by Dan from NM on Nov 17, 2008 1:02 PM PST 0 recs
It’s all about the back injury. He’s an excellent player, and despite the perception that has developed lately, he hasn’t really been injury-prone over the course of his career. So if you feel reasonably confident that he’s over the back problem, he’s going to be a good signing.
My hunch is that a back problem is a lot more significant for a power hitter than for an OBP & speed guy. And a good shortstop and leadoff man is probably the number one thing the Giants need right now. So I’d go for it up to the 3/$36m, 4/$42m level.
by Evan on Nov 17, 2008 1:07 PM PST 0 recs
Sliding, diving, quick sudden stops and three are things his game depends on a lot. All three become much harder to do and do receptivity with a back issue.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 17, 2008 1:16 PM PST
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Bah! Try this again.
Sliding, diving, quick sudden stops are three things his game depends on a lot. All three become much harder to do and do repetitively with a back issue.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST
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How the hell did he win RoY in 2000? Must’ve been a thin class.
Put me solidly in the no way camp.
by fwoty oz on Nov 17, 2008 1:11 PM PST 0 recs
.394 OBP and 40 SB from a rookie, not bad.
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by WalrusMan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:51 PM PST
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Yeah, but what was his batting average? And how many RBI did he get?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Nov 17, 2008 7:35 PM PST
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No runners thrown out.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on
Nov 17, 2008 7:42 PM PST
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Affeldt pwn3s Grant's post!
On this topic though, it really comes down to the price and his health. I know that those two things are incredibly obvious and all that does is basically restate what you said. 3 years at 36 million would be a good investment if he stays healthy. If he’s hurt, though, that contract will really suck.
Eat-all-the-cookies me always like signings. Signings are exciting and get me all crazy into the present. Yes We Can! Eat-all-the-cookies me doesn’t care if Furcal might get hurt; Eat-all-the-cookies me wants gratification now.
My more sensible half thinks that the Zito and Rowand deals make this a bad idea… we can’t afford to have another $12 million/year tied up in a player who carries such large risks.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:13 PM PST 0 recs
Affeldt pwn3s Grant’s post!
Every free-agent announcement will come within five minutes of a front-page post on a different topic. I’ve learned this over the past few years.
by Grant on
Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST
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LOL
luckily, this signing doesn’t appear to change the calculus much with respect to Fucal. It might mitigate in favor of signing Furcal, I guess… like you said, Furcal makes more sense if this team can compete. Not that I think Affeldt is going to put us over the top.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:23 PM PST
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^ militate, not mitigate...
that’s what I get for trying to use dem fancy words.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:33 PM PST
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btw… this is not an anti-Obama post… rereading it, I could see someone taking it that way. I voted for the dude and think that he’s the hot hot sexy.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:19 PM PST
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Would you eat some....PIE?
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on
Nov 17, 2008 8:12 PM PST
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For everyone that is saying 3/36, didn’t Furcal’s agent recently say the bidding starts a 4/40? You could call it hot air on his agent’s part, but I think Furcal will be able to get 4-years.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:14 PM PST 0 recs
if he did, I didn't see it...
seems to just be another reason not to sign him. We don’t want a guy with a history of back problems on the books for $12 million in 2012.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST
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I found the I was thinking about.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/15/SPE51451NV.DTL
The Giants’ more realistic targets are a middle infielder and bullpen setup men. As of midday, they had not submitted a formal offer for Rafael Furcal, the premier shortstop on the market and one of their supposed targets. Furcal should have plenty of suitors, including Oakland, and is believed to be seeking four years at $10 million per for openers.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:19 PM PST
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I'd rather pay him more per year for a shorter deal...
4 years is just asking for trouble with that guy.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:20 PM PST
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Hell no
Career .286/.352/.412. Over $10 mil a season, really? Can’t we just sign Durham to a 1 year deal & let him battle for time with Frandsen & Burriss?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on Nov 17, 2008 1:20 PM PST 0 recs
I’m confused, are you saying sign Durham to a 1-year deal to compete at SS? Or 2B?
.286/.352/.412 is pretty good for a SS that plays average to above average defense.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:25 PM PST
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I threw Durham’s name out there because he can put up similar #‘s as a second baseman and he won’t tie down the budget this year or beyond. Frandsen/Burriss’s bats play better at SS. A signing like this would also give the Giants the ability to reassess their middle infield after this year. If both Burriss and Frandsen show they can play, then money is saved for hitters they actually need. (WE NEED MOR DINGERZ!)
Yes, Furcal’s #‘s are above average for a shortstop, if he can remain healthy & produce them over the next 3-4 years at the ages of 31-34. But what are the odds of that? And are the Giants really going to be short those types of bats for the next 3 to 4 seasons? Devoting over 10 percent of the payroll for the next few years on those odds is a big gamble. Especially when you don’t have one hitter close to a .500 SLG%. If a banged-up Furcal’s worth 12 million, then 20 million for Teixeira doesn’t seem so absurd (although anything over 6 years is).
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on
Nov 17, 2008 2:48 PM PST
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I say green light, especially if we can grab him for three years or less. People don’t seem to realize how brutally hard it is to find a credible shortstop these days… this guy is a borderline MVP candidate when healthy. I don’t believe in Burriss.
I’m not that worried about the team hamstringing themselves money-wise, in large part because I don’t think Rowand is immovable. I’d prefer trading for J.J. Hardy, but the Brewers seem to know how good he is, so I doubt that happens.
A risk? Sure, but a decent one. He has more upside than most free agents in his price range, and we have the need.
by onlxn on Nov 17, 2008 1:21 PM PST 0 recs
Uhhh
this guy is a borderline MVP candidate when healthy
Where the hell is this border?
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on
Nov 17, 2008 4:33 PM PST
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My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Nov 17, 2008 6:40 PM PST
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Aww. And I just downed my second glass of Glenlivet.
by non sequitur on
Nov 17, 2008 7:54 PM PST
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Two year and incentive laden to the max is my limit.
If the Giants want a place holder for 09, &’10 then offer to a declining Renteria or take a shot what should be a far cheaper and more versatile Izturis.
What is the best up side on Furcal? He does well is healthy and is signed as a compensated free agent after this contract while playing about 2200 innings of good D and top of the order up hitting? For 2 year he hit’s the market again for his age3 season. A 3 year deal he is selling his 34 year old season, a 4 year old deal he is selling his 35 year old season. Each year not only commits the Giants to him if things go badly if also reduces the chance of an optimal best case happening.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:22 PM PST 0 recs
May I suggest we have a run-off for this poll? Maybe we could merge it with the prospect poll!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:29 PM PST 0 recs
Are you projecting a Thai?
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on
Nov 17, 2008 1:30 PM PST
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I’m hungry for Thai food now. Thanks, jerk!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:30 PM PST
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Caribbean jerk chicken?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 17, 2008 1:34 PM PST
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STOP IT!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:37 PM PST
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Food whose name has either stop or it in it.
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by WalrusMan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:53 PM PST
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me too... I tried to go to Thai food last night
but the place was closed. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on
Nov 17, 2008 1:36 PM PST
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hunger doesn't sleep!
neither should them!
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Nov 17, 2008 11:48 PM PST
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3 years $35mil with a club/vesting (PA’s, hopefully) option for the 4th should get it done, provide enough CYA’s for both player and team, and it would be a huge upgrade for the Giants’. I really, really want Burriss to work out as a quality starter for the Giants’, but how much could it harm having him play in AAA or apprenticeing under Furcal for a couple of years?
by tyrannoman on Nov 17, 2008 1:35 PM PST 0 recs
I think Furcal will end up with 3 years + an option
I could see something like 3/37 + 1 year 13 mil/3 mil buyout being good for both Furcal and whatever team signs him.
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by iamawesomer on Nov 17, 2008 1:40 PM PST 0 recs
Well..
I think that they considered his defense at 2B GG quality and at SS just good. That’d probably be right of most SS though.
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by WalrusMan on
Nov 17, 2008 1:54 PM PST
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