Rafael Furcal and the San Francisco Giants: Now with Indentations, Bulletpoints, and Whathaveyou
by Grant on Nov 17, 2008 12:30 PM PST
124 comments
The hottest Giant-on-free-agent-action rumor has to do with Rafael Furcal. He’s a player who:
- is pretty good when healthy
- plays a position that, before Manny Burriss’s September hot streak, was a top priority for the Giants
That sounds…not horrible. It beats the yearly migration of center fielders swimming upstream to mate and expire in McCovey Cove. But allow me to join Lefty and wonder what in the heck sense does Furcal make for the Giants. My guess on possible outcomes of a long-term deal:
- 5% chance that Furcal's will stay healthy and perform at a high level for the duration of the contract
- 53% chance that Furcal will do OK at first, but he'll struggle through injuries and eventually become ineffective. (In scouting parlance: a durhaming)
- 42% chance that Furcal will stink right away, whether through injury or aging. (In scouting parlance: an alfonzotion)
Now, you can live with the middle option if you’re sure that your team can contend. If, say, the Red Sox didn’t have anyone but Julio Lugo, they would be justified in throwing away pieces of the 2011 budget to get a return on 2009. The Giants just might contend next season, but they probably won’t. They probably won’t for at least two seasons, and that’s being generous. So the Giants are hoping that either
- Furcal, along with one additional free agent and a spontaneous improvement from the rest of the offense, will make the Giants contenders in 2009
- Furcal will stay healthy and effective for the length of the deal, and help the Giants whenever they start winning more games than they lose
If the Giants were to sign Furcal, it wouldn’t be the end of the world because he plays one of the two thinnest positions in the organization. As much as I’m rooting for Burriss, I’d love to see him get 500 at-bats in AAA before anointing him the starter at short or second, and if Burriss fails, there is absolutely no backup plan. So a shortstop free agent makes sense. But both "1" and "2" above are different shades of delusional.
Another thing that isn’t really part of the discussion: Furcal’s 2007 was kind of miserable. Sure, after Furcal’s back injury, he had 143 good at-bats last year. But when you have three data points – a bad year, followed by a back injury, followed by a small sample of at-bats – it wouldn’t make sense to focus on the one that makes you feel all fuzzy.
If the Giants sign Furcal, I’ll feel the same way I feel when they signed Zito and Rowand. Gee, I hope it works out. Gee, he seems like a modest improvement, all things being equal. Golly, that is a big contract with about a 5% chance of being a good deal. The worst part is that 95% of the time, I’m right every time.
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I think he makes some sense it the deal is right and he’s healthy. Giants’ SS had the worst OPS in the National League in 2008. Together, all the shortstops the Giants ran out to play, OPS’ed less than .600 on the year. Only Baltimore was worse.
And, as you pointed out, our depth at short is pretty bad. Furcal could be a bridge between now and prospects down the road.
I think if he’s healthy — the team doctors give him the OK — then he’s a pretty good option. He won’t turn this team around but SS is a major weakness on the Giants right now and I think he addresses it pretty well.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 12:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
And if the Giants can get Furcal between $10-12M, then it’s fair market value for him. I wouldn’t go past $12M per year.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
you and your math and your logic. psh
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 17, 2008 5:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
blegh
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 17, 2008 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
$12.5M/yr for that period would be all the incentive he would need.
Three years @ $12M tops, then pile on the incentives. I know, not
likely to get it done.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 17, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Incentive-laden as the maximum he could earn of he reached all of his PA plateaus.
by wilriv21 on Nov 17, 2008 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
why the hell not?
Sure, he might flop. It’s not my money and he sure as hell won’t be blocking anyone.
But let’s be reasonable… more than 3/33 would probably not be good. It makes way more sense if we also go after Burrell/Dunn/Texiera as well. Just getting Furcal is like saying “TRAVIS ISHIKAWA – LEAD US TO THE PLAYOFFS”. And I saw that movie. It doesn’t end well.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Nov 17, 2008 12:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sure, he might flop. It’s not my money and he sure as hell won’t be blocking anyone.
He might block deal for J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, or Jimmy Rollins in a couple of years. That kind of fear isn’t a good way to build a roster, but it’s worth thinking about.
by Grant on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
you can just play a “man down” (no SS) for 2 years and hope that you get a better FA…. part of the reason Furcal is even affordable (assuming he is) is that he’s an injury risk. What is Rollins going to get in 2 years? 8/180?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Nov 17, 2008 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that’s a terrible way to build a roster. But we’re living it with the Zito/Sabathia logistics right now.
by Grant on Nov 17, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you can just play a "man down" (no SS) for 2 years and hope that you get a better FA
The New Jersey Nets beg to differ.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 17, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
only problem for the Nets is that they’re not getting that new arena in Brooklyn. I don’t care if Jay Z is his friend, I doubt Lebron wants to play in the New Jersey swamps.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on Nov 17, 2008 7:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
3/33 sounds about right
Although if the Giants were smart they’d gauge the market for Furcal first before throwing down some insane offer that’s $5-10M more than the next highest one. I’m genuinely wondering whether the sort of bidding wars we’ve seen the past few offseasons are really going to take place with lots of the big market teams struggling to sell seats and (especially) luxury boxes for ’09.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Nov 17, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
Anything else is just tempting fate. He may only 30 chronologically, but his body is 50.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 17, 2008 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather see the Giants trade a Winn or Molina or Rowand for a useful minor league shortstop in the high minors.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stop that crazy talk and join us back inside the box, please.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Nov 17, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve got DREEAAMSS
dreeeams to remember. . .
by oldjacket on Nov 17, 2008 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
sweet dreams are made of these
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 17, 2008 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cept those guys aren't valuable enough to net something like that.
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by iamawesomer on Nov 17, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
More like this Gm does not trade a guy off the 25 man roster for someone not already on a MLB 25 roster.
If you being serious you are severally under selling Winn’s over all game. A +15 OPD according to Chris Dail puts him right along Dunn and Burrell. What do you think the odds are a team could get them for 1 yr 9MM deal? Let alone possible draft pick(s) if player in question was to sign elsewhere next winter.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're underselling useful AA-AAA shortstops
Have you seen how bad shortstops are? They hit about .272/.327/.392 this year. If you had a talented close to the majors SS who you’d control for 6 years would you trade him for a one year rental RF when you can just go sign one instead, or probably trade for Brian Giles who is like Randy Winn except better, unless you’re calling Winn a CF, which its hard to say if he is anymore.
He’ll also be entering his age 36 season after 09 so I don’t think teams are going to be forking over picks if he turns out to be Type A. So it’s possibly one draft pick, and even then teams would have to be careful about arby.
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by iamawesomer on Nov 17, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen how bad shortstops are?
I’ve spent the last 2 seasons watching a legendry SS fall to age. Been forced to envy the Twin’s taking a gamble on injury question mark called Adam Everett while my Gm refused to . I cheer Ochoa and spent over 10 years witnessing LeMaster . ( A’s fans if you think Crosby is bad you aint seen nothing.) I think I have a fairly sound set of credentials for understanding bad SS play.
As for Winn and compensation. He would qualify as a Type A this winter. I am skeptical that he stays in the top tier of outfielders, first basemen and Dh’s group but it not unheard possibility. Good glove, switch hitting bat and efficient base runner. He is not a team changer in and of himself but really he is a better player then Kotsay at this point. The Cubs should could have used him RF. So could that Mets. I doubt the Yanks would have broken harted either.
The Arbitration worry mainly applies to a team like the Giants. He wants to stay here. An Acquiring team would be built for the short term so they either get another 1 year contract or get to set if they get picks. Either result would not be burdensome to a team looking to win now.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think teams would wait to sign Winn rather than risk a first or second round pick. I don’t see teams trampling each other over signing Randy Winn
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Nov 17, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let us follow the logic on Arbitration a bit.
Say it is winter 2009. Let presume Winn just keeps on being Winn. No end of ‘05 runs nor any dramatic injuries. If you want to regress him a bit I fine with that.
A) If he has been traded then he his probably on a team he likes less then the Giants. In that case the odds of him accepting arbitration go down.
B) If the team that has traded for him it probably built for the short term ( and about any team that would trade near value for him would be) the odds of a 1 year contract to fill a rooster gap is not as detrimental event as it could be to the rebuilding Giants.
c) In fact the only way a rebuilding time trades for him is extremely stupid ( lets rule that out as very unlikely for this conversation) or they don’t expect their minors to kick out a MLB replacement for 2 seasons. Again arbitration is not a deterrent to that team.
In any of those scenarios that team offers arbitration and they will either have a competent OF on a 1 year contract or one ( at least) compensation pick.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 18, 2008 9:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you’re fired
Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil.
by BrianBokake on Nov 18, 2008 1:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He makes sense but I’m too worried about his health for a significant long term deal.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 17, 2008 12:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m relatively pro Furcal. He’s the best shortstop on the market who won’t cost us prospects, and the Giants were absolutely abysmal at short last year. I think it’s asking too much for both Burriss and Frandsen to pan out, and neither is likely to be the kind of player who pushes the team to a pennant.
Yes, I’m worried about Furcal’s injury history and his terrible 2007. But you only have to hit a little bit to be a worthwhile shortstop, especially with Furcal’s strong arm. I suspect he’d remain tradeable a year or two down the road, as well. Plus he can be moved to second if need be.
I’m also a little worried that if we don’t start filling some of our holes, we’re going to end up like the Pirates or somesuch, where we look at just about every player and say, “Well, he won’t make us a contender …”
by Dan from NM on Nov 17, 2008 1:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It’s all about the back injury. He’s an excellent player, and despite the perception that has developed lately, he hasn’t really been injury-prone over the course of his career. So if you feel reasonably confident that he’s over the back problem, he’s going to be a good signing.
My hunch is that a back problem is a lot more significant for a power hitter than for an OBP & speed guy. And a good shortstop and leadoff man is probably the number one thing the Giants need right now. So I’d go for it up to the 3/$36m, 4/$42m level.
by Evan on Nov 17, 2008 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sliding, diving, quick sudden stops and three are things his game depends on a lot. All three become much harder to do and do receptivity with a back issue.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bah! Try this again.
Sliding, diving, quick sudden stops are three things his game depends on a lot. All three become much harder to do and do repetitively with a back issue.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How the hell did he win RoY in 2000? Must’ve been a thin class.
Put me solidly in the no way camp.
by fwoty oz on Nov 17, 2008 1:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
.394 OBP and 40 SB from a rookie, not bad.
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by WalrusMan on Nov 17, 2008 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but what was his batting average? And how many RBI did he get?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 17, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No runners thrown out.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 17, 2008 7:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Affeldt pwn3s Grant's post!
On this topic though, it really comes down to the price and his health. I know that those two things are incredibly obvious and all that does is basically restate what you said. 3 years at 36 million would be a good investment if he stays healthy. If he’s hurt, though, that contract will really suck.
Eat-all-the-cookies me always like signings. Signings are exciting and get me all crazy into the present. Yes We Can! Eat-all-the-cookies me doesn’t care if Furcal might get hurt; Eat-all-the-cookies me wants gratification now.
My more sensible half thinks that the Zito and Rowand deals make this a bad idea… we can’t afford to have another $12 million/year tied up in a player who carries such large risks.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Affeldt pwn3s Grant’s post!
Every free-agent announcement will come within five minutes of a front-page post on a different topic. I’ve learned this over the past few years.
by Grant on Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
luckily, this signing doesn’t appear to change the calculus much with respect to Fucal. It might mitigate in favor of signing Furcal, I guess… like you said, Furcal makes more sense if this team can compete. Not that I think Affeldt is going to put us over the top.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
^ militate, not mitigate...
that’s what I get for trying to use dem fancy words.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
btw… this is not an anti-Obama post… rereading it, I could see someone taking it that way. I voted for the dude and think that he’s the hot hot sexy.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you eat some....PIE?
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Nov 17, 2008 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For everyone that is saying 3/36, didn’t Furcal’s agent recently say the bidding starts a 4/40? You could call it hot air on his agent’s part, but I think Furcal will be able to get 4-years.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
if he did, I didn't see it...
seems to just be another reason not to sign him. We don’t want a guy with a history of back problems on the books for $12 million in 2012.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I found the I was thinking about.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/15/SPE51451NV.DTL
The Giants’ more realistic targets are a middle infielder and bullpen setup men. As of midday, they had not submitted a formal offer for Rafael Furcal, the premier shortstop on the market and one of their supposed targets. Furcal should have plenty of suitors, including Oakland, and is believed to be seeking four years at $10 million per for openers.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather pay him more per year for a shorter deal...
4 years is just asking for trouble with that guy.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell no
Career .286/.352/.412. Over $10 mil a season, really? Can’t we just sign Durham to a 1 year deal & let him battle for time with Frandsen & Burriss?
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on Nov 17, 2008 1:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m confused, are you saying sign Durham to a 1-year deal to compete at SS? Or 2B?
.286/.352/.412 is pretty good for a SS that plays average to above average defense.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I threw Durham’s name out there because he can put up similar #‘s as a second baseman and he won’t tie down the budget this year or beyond. Frandsen/Burriss’s bats play better at SS. A signing like this would also give the Giants the ability to reassess their middle infield after this year. If both Burriss and Frandsen show they can play, then money is saved for hitters they actually need. (WE NEED MOR DINGERZ!)
Yes, Furcal’s #‘s are above average for a shortstop, if he can remain healthy & produce them over the next 3-4 years at the ages of 31-34. But what are the odds of that? And are the Giants really going to be short those types of bats for the next 3 to 4 seasons? Devoting over 10 percent of the payroll for the next few years on those odds is a big gamble. Especially when you don’t have one hitter close to a .500 SLG%. If a banged-up Furcal’s worth 12 million, then 20 million for Teixeira doesn’t seem so absurd (although anything over 6 years is).
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on Nov 17, 2008 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I say green light, especially if we can grab him for three years or less. People don’t seem to realize how brutally hard it is to find a credible shortstop these days… this guy is a borderline MVP candidate when healthy. I don’t believe in Burriss.
I’m not that worried about the team hamstringing themselves money-wise, in large part because I don’t think Rowand is immovable. I’d prefer trading for J.J. Hardy, but the Brewers seem to know how good he is, so I doubt that happens.
A risk? Sure, but a decent one. He has more upside than most free agents in his price range, and we have the need.
by onlxn on Nov 17, 2008 1:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Uhhh
this guy is a borderline MVP candidate when healthy
Where the hell is this border?
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 17, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on Nov 17, 2008 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Aww. And I just downed my second glass of Glenlivet.
by non sequitur on Nov 17, 2008 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Two year and incentive laden to the max is my limit.
If the Giants want a place holder for 09, &’10 then offer to a declining Renteria or take a shot what should be a far cheaper and more versatile Izturis.
What is the best up side on Furcal? He does well is healthy and is signed as a compensated free agent after this contract while playing about 2200 innings of good D and top of the order up hitting? For 2 year he hit’s the market again for his age3 season. A 3 year deal he is selling his 34 year old season, a 4 year old deal he is selling his 35 year old season. Each year not only commits the Giants to him if things go badly if also reduces the chance of an optimal best case happening.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
May I suggest we have a run-off for this poll? Maybe we could merge it with the prospect poll!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Are you projecting a Thai?
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 17, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m hungry for Thai food now. Thanks, jerk!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Caribbean jerk chicken?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
STOP IT!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Food whose name has either stop or it in it.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 17, 2008 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
me too... I tried to go to Thai food last night
but the place was closed. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 17, 2008 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hunger doesn't sleep!
neither should them!
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Nov 17, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
3 years $35mil with a club/vesting (PA’s, hopefully) option for the 4th should get it done, provide enough CYA’s for both player and team, and it would be a huge upgrade for the Giants’. I really, really want Burriss to work out as a quality starter for the Giants’, but how much could it harm having him play in AAA or apprenticeing under Furcal for a couple of years?
by tyrannoman on Nov 17, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think Furcal will end up with 3 years + an option
I could see something like 3/37 + 1 year 13 mil/3 mil buyout being good for both Furcal and whatever team signs him.
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by iamawesomer on Nov 17, 2008 1:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Anagram of "Rafael Furcal"
A FULL FEAR ARC
Looks like the anagrammer doesn’t want to sign him either.
Anagram of "Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum" = TENSE, CLIMACTIC, TRIUMPHING
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Nov 17, 2008 2:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I was just gonna say that
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on Nov 17, 2008 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Given a choice...
I’d rather put the money toward Texiera as I think he gives the team a bigger lift over Phelpsikawa than Furcal does over Burriss…especially as a long-term piece of the puzzle.
If they’re going to pay $12M for Furcal, move Winn and used the combined savings on Tex.
Yes we did!
by Goofus on Nov 17, 2008 3:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Winn will clear money only for 2009. Tex for 7 years will be way more expensive than Winn + Furcal. Like, 100 million dollars more expensive.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 18, 2008 1:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A player whose one plus tool is speed should never be signed after the age of thirty. It’s Dave Roberts ll over again.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 17, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Evidence for this? I’ve always had the impression that speed players age much better than others.
by Evan on Nov 17, 2008 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i thought it was athletic players, not players that are fast and don’t do anything else well to begin with. i’m thinking they have to play well before they age well.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Nov 17, 2008 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you suggesting that Furcal doesn’t play well? I’d say he does absolutely everything well except hit for power, and he’s actually not terrible at that either.
Dave Roberts is a good example of what I’m talking about, actually. He’s a guy who really does have just one tool, but he got better and better as he got older, and had his career year at 34. Consider also Vizquel or Lofton or Ichiro. These guys barely seem to age at all.
by Evan on Nov 18, 2008 7:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i was just responding to the “one plus tool” thing. i wasn’t talking about furcal, but that didn’t seem to be who smothers and evan were talking about either. “athletic types” (bonds, henderson) should age better than slow, unathletic sluggers (dunn, fielders). furcal should be in the first group, but i’d say he had the added risk of his injuries and i’m not so sure how well shortstops keep up their production in their mid to late thirties.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Nov 19, 2008 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Grant...
1. Furcal, along with one additional free agent and a spontaneous improvement from the rest of the offense, will make the Giants contenders in 2008
Unless the additional free agent is Marty McFly or Doc Brown, methinks this is impossible.
by The Double Deuce on Nov 17, 2008 3:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Where Grant’s going, they don’t need speed and defense.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Nov 17, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he was still on the phone with 2007 when he wrote that.
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Nov 17, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Step away from the Furcal or the cat gets it...
I didn’t want it to be this way, but it appears that you haven’t learned anything from your mistakes, Mr. Sabean.
by AndOnTheDrums... on Nov 17, 2008 3:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I see Picksells.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 17, 2008 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Would love the signing
Furcal provides us with a SS option, im not neccesairly in love with Furcal but more the idea of Frandsen battling Burris for the 2nd base job, both cherishing the chances they get. I would be willing to go up to 4 year 46 million. I know were not “one hitter away” but we never will be unless we start now. P.S. Would love to couple this signing with a Dunn signing.
by giantsrockdudes on Nov 17, 2008 4:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Burris’ bat should never touch second base. And I don’t mean that in the literal sense, although I feel it applies that way as well.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 17, 2008 7:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like the idea of Furcal in general
Because I’ve developed a phobia of all players over the age of 30.
However, if the Giants were able to sign Furcal @ SS and Pickup Burrell @ to play 1b, this team starts to look a lot like a contender.
That would be interesting, at least. The years/dollars may put the 2011/2012 situation @ risk – but sport is all about risk.
Furcal (best case) in a vacuum makes this a 75 win team. That in of itself is pointless.
by FairweatherFan on Nov 17, 2008 5:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather not
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Nov 17, 2008 5:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If nobody has seen yet, mlbtraderumors.com is saying that an unknown team has offered like 13mm/ year, 3 year 39 mill. Why am I horrified that the unknown is in fact the Giants? I mean I like the idea of Furcal, but not at that high a price!
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 17, 2008 6:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’d be thrilled for a 3/39 deal.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
A deal isn’t good just because it isn’t the Barry Zito deal.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Nov 17, 2008 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal is probably worth around $11-12M per year. $13M per season is basically market value for him. Not overpaying but also fair.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 17, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one...
who doesn’t think that $13M or $12M, or $10M is a good price for Furcal? That may be “fair market value” but for a team who thinks that Furcal is what puts them over the top, which is certainly not true for this team. And with the injury, and his very poor 2007, I am cringing at the thought of Furcal on this team.
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 18, 2008 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe. $10M per season for Furcal is a great buy. $11-13M is more appropriate.
Only the Orioles had worse production from SS in ‘08 than the Giants. Think about that, our collective shortstops in ’08 hit worse than Neifi Perez’s career OPS by about 100 points. It might not “put us over the top” but it’s a pretty good step in the direction towards being competitive again.
So, you might the only one. I don’t know.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 18, 2008 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I might chose the other side here .
I agree the price would be a better then fair market value towards the a team. But that team needs to be closer to legitimately contending to make it worth it ( ie Twins, Blue Jays & Bums) or have mad amounts of disposable cash ( say Red Sox, NY teams, Bums). The Giants currently don’t fall into either category.
I partially agree with your statement on your web site if Furcal is healthy he would be a considered a great signing in a void. The thing is what if he is not healthy or just starts to age early and turns in near average production? In the later case the Giants are looking at have ~43MM in 3 players( Furcal, Rowand & He Shall Not Be Named). Not one of which is positive difference maker when compared to the competition.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 18, 2008 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Dave,
The thing is what if he is not healthy or just starts to age early and turns in near average production? In the later case the Giants are looking at have ~43MM in 3 players( Furcal, Rowand & He Shall Not Be Named).
If team doctors give him the thumbs up, that’s good enough for me right now. Obviously if the Giants discover his back is still hurting or he lost a leg or something, then avoid him. But, I don’t think the Giants can sit back and let SS go for another year with the way it’s been. We have nothing in the pipeline and outside of some magical trade that fills our SS position, there isn’t much to hang on to.
I think Furcal is attractive because you won’t lose a pick if you sign him and if he can play around his established level over the last few years, he’s worth $10-12M per season. Furcal might not be a “difference maker” (whatever that is) but he does solve a legitimate problem on the Giants.
I’d much rather have Furcal than Renteria or any other option on the market right now. If the Giants can get him for 4/40 or 3/39, they should do it.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 18, 2008 9:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We agree on the need to address SS. I think we have since last winter if memory serves.
As for if the doctors think he is good. I don’t have that much faith in them but I think this at this point we should table it for a bit so things don’t get derailed. Agreed?
2 points on Renteria.
1) I am not really wild about him either.
2) Detroit does not seemed inclined to offer Arbitration and I think he can be had for under 10MM/ year mark for a couple years. He gets a chance to reestablish value we get a stop gap. To me it looks like a gamble were the stakes and ante are more inside our price range.
By "positive deference marker" I was trying to grab a term for a guy well above league average. Kind of an Anti Zito effect with you will. The doesn’t have to HoF or Hall of Very Good candidate just really solid. Before his injuries Furcal has definitely been this.
However his injuries don’t have to drive him out of baseball, or into Zito hood, to remove him for this category. If that’s the case what the heck to the Giants do then with such a large part of the payroll tied up in 3 players that are not so good on a team still under 500? How is that different the Mr Roberts in ‘08 & ‘09? Or even Edgar Alfonzo’s tender here?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 18, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
edit
Why the freak I didn’t just say if he falls below a 1 WAR guy instead of positive deference maker? < insert snide, snaky remark about stubborn grumpy old man here>
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 19, 2008 6:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m ok with 11 mil/year max I think.
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 17, 2008 7:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How much difference does it really make, though? An extra $2 million a year might be a lot of money to you or me, or even Rafael Furcal, but when the team budget is $100 million or whatever, it’s just not that big a deal.
Some financial decisions can make or break a team: handing out a $126 million dollar contract to a guy who can barely pitch, for instance. Or, in the other direction, drafting a player who wins a Cy Young while getting paid $400k. A marginal million here or there for a midlevel free agent is a footnote in comparison.
If Furcal keeps getting hurt, $11 million a year would be disastrous. If he stays healthy, $13 million will be just fine. His performance is what will make it a good or bad contract.
by Evan on Nov 17, 2008 8:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, after thinking more on it, you and xanthan are right. If it is just 3 years then 2 mill difference is worth it, if he stays healthy.
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 17, 2008 10:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean prioritized relief pitching, middle infielders and middle of the order bat. He quickly offered a contract to Affeldt and would not be surprised at all if it was the Giants who presented the offer to Furcal. Sabean may look into the trade market for the middle of the order bat.
by wilriv21 on Nov 17, 2008 7:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've said it before, but I'll say it again...
Don’t sign Rafael Furcal!
It is pointless, risky, and generally a really poor fit for the team. Furcal is coming off back surgery and is 30. Injury risk and an age risk=bad signing.
Let’s see how he fits into the lineup: Well, he doesn’t really hit for power, but he’d be a great lead-off type hitter…just like Fred Lewis and Randy Winn. So he doesn’t give us power (that we desperately need) but he adds something we already have….twice….
Worst of all: he ties up 10-12 mil a year for 3-4 years; money that could be used to sign the real impact bat we need.
Lastly: give Manny Burriss a chance. He is young and cheap. He is a talented defender, and he exceeded everyone’s expectations at the plate this past year. He has continued to hit well in the Arizona Fall league. He never really hit in the minors, so it’s fair to have doubts about his bat. But he hit in the majors. And he’s hitting in the AFL. And he’s patient at the plate. He may never hit for any power at all. But the guy deserves a shot, darnit.
by Gregjitsu on Nov 17, 2008 9:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
See heres why I disagree with you, Furcal will not be the savior for the Giants this year, or any year he would be on the team. What he would do is provide an actual, and Randy Winn is not a good lead off guy, lead off hitter who would, get this, allow Manny Burriss to get some actual high minor league experiance! Which he is going to need, sure hes hitting well in the AFL, but you know what, thats like saying hes hitting well in Connecticut or probably San Jose would be a better comparison. Get off the “Dont sign Furcal” bash wagon and wise up, how many prospects, better than Manny Burriss, have been destroyed by the level shuffle? Enough for me to think, hmm maybe signing a stop gap wouldnt be a bad idea at all. Check the posts, NOONE is saying give Furcal 7 years and 126 million, We are all saying give him 3 and 33-39 milliion, and then no real harm done. Oh and name 5 free agents coming in the next 3 years that would be a huge impact for the Giants, that wouldnt be signed because of 11-13 million going to Fucal.
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 17, 2008 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We haven't had a good leadoff hitter...
Since Butler. Unless you want to count one year of Benard.
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by WalrusMan on Nov 18, 2008 6:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So again I ask the board in general. If going for a 1-2 year place holder why not wait tell after arbitration deadline and make runs at Renteria ( declining but should be had for cheaper and shorter and has no current health issues), Furcal ( already well covered here), Izturis ( Cheapest of the three, least talent but most versatile in positions he can play)?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Nov 18, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"how many prospects, better than Manny Burriss, have been destroyed by the level shuffle? "
So you want to….shuffle Burriss’s level? He performed at the major league level. Great, let’s send him back down! Well, that would be classic Giants logic.
“sure hes hitting well in the AFL” AND MLB. Manny Burriss hit .283/.357 in the only league that really matters.
“We are all saying give him 3 and 33-39 milliion, and then no real harm done”-Except waste money on a player who is an injury risk and won’t significantly improve the team. What if he gets hurt? That would be hilarious. Why? Because we’d be paying 39million for Furcal to watch Manny Burriss play SS! Guess what? We could have that for 450k.
I’m not saying Furcal is a terrible player, just a terrible signing. If we’re going to sign a bat, sign one at 3rd, where we really ARE desperate, and where we could get some real offensive production. You want a stop-gap? Pick up Casey Blake. Or, grab Jason Giambi and stick Pablo at 3rd.
For the record, I want to see more signings like Phelps and Affeldt. Low risk, possibly high reward. Let the kids play. They’re looking better and better.
by Gregjitsu on Nov 18, 2008 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, clearly we are not going to agree here. But I fear your optimism for Burriss, He had a good month of professional ball, and I mean at all levels not just the majors. I personally would rather have Furcal at ss than Burriss, and I like I said before find me 5, nay 3 guys coming into free agency in the next 3 years that would a. help this team to be winners and b. not be signed because of money given to Furcal.
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 18, 2008 6:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And sorry your right, I shoud have said the warp speed to the majors shuffle that Burriss is on right now. I seriously doubt that Burriss is going to be as productive as he was in one month last year at the majors, but I would love to be wrong.
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 18, 2008 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And oh ya, Burriss is 23 almost 24 years old, he has time to get better. Its not like sending him back to the minors is an insane idea, or hes out of options! Let the kid get some high a experience!
I'm young but i didn't fall off the truck yesterday!
by jbowl on Nov 17, 2008 11:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal at 4yrs/$44M?
In addition to right-handed relief, the Giants remain hot on the trail of free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Agent Paul Kinzer declined comment when asked if the Giants had presented a contract offer; Furcal has many suitors and is expected to get a deal in the four-year, $44 million range.
by wilriv21 on Nov 17, 2008 9:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
4 years is too many
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 17, 2008 10:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but it’s better than 6
Proud father of Eric Surcamp!
by The Thrill on Nov 17, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Better than 6
At the point where you’re willing to say this, you’re just getting desperate for any non-Burriss to play shortstop.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Nov 18, 2008 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No!
I wouldn’t give a multi-year deal to a player two years removed from being effective (for over 1/5 season at least), at the price that the most highly regarded free agent at an offense-starved position will get. We have the Albatross and the Gamer, The Injury Risk gives you the possibility of a $45 million trifecta of dead weight.
I’d rather have Renteria in late December when he doesn’t cost a pick. That leaves more money for Hudson at 2B, and Frandsen and Pablo can get AB’s at third. Frandsen’s bat doesn’t play at third, but there aren’t many choices for the position, he needs the AB’s, and the SS/2B combo of Renteria/Hudson would be well enough above-average (given even a small bounceback from Renteria) to let it happen.
My fear: Furcal for 4/55, and Burriss slides over to 2nd, where he can’t come close to the .740 OPS of an average 2B. Two good signings can’t cure my Sabeanitis.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Nov 17, 2008 11:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm sick of it
Why not at least see what we’ve got in the youngsters before filling their spots with aging/ailing fillers?
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.
by The Nick on Nov 18, 2008 2:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Double Posterz
And secondly, he’s an ex-Fodger. We know how well that worked with Steve Finley.
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.
by The Nick on Nov 18, 2008 2:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Travis Denker!
/ weeps
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Nov 18, 2008 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to say that this
It beats the yearly migration of center fielders swimming upstream to mate and expire in McCovey Cove.
made me chuckle to myself in front of the computer.
by scotterduder on Nov 18, 2008 11:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The whathaveyou was my favorite part of this post.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Nov 19, 2008 1:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The whathaveyou was my favorite part of this post.
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Nov 19, 2008 1:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You don’t say.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2008 8:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It was such an important point I had to say it twice
My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Nov 19, 2008 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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