Revisiting the 2007 amateur draft (with two edits)
Definitely the most significant draft in Sabean's era, and while it had some flaws, it's really hard to knock given what he did with his top two picks (Madbum and Alderson). Well, we know how the actual draft went, but I thougt I'd revisit the draft to see how perceptions probably change now had these teams been able to redraft right now, with the 2008 minor league seasons in mind. One year removed, we have a better idea about these players, just as we'll have even better idea at this time next year
*NOTE*: There are probably guys taken in the later rounds that could have cracked the top rounds, but I'm just sticking to the guys I can easily track, because I am lazy
1. David Price LHP (actual pick: David Price, where player went: #1 to TAM ): No reason to expect anything else
2. Matt Wieters (actual pick: Moustakas, where player went: #5 BAL): There was obviously fiscal reasons why the Royals passed on Wieters, but I bet if you gave them the option now to take Wieters for a few extra million, they would gobble it up.
3. Madison Bumgarner (actual pick: Josh Vitters, where player went: #10 SF): Moskos might reach the bigs faster, but that's probably where any advantage dies
4. Jason Heyward (actual pick: Daniel Moskos, where player went: #14 ATL): Heyward is essentially the Madison Bumgarner equivalent to hitting, incredible numbers for his age, but his as good as his stat line is, it isn't as utterly ridiculous as Bumgarner's
5. Rick Porcello (actual pick: Wieters, where player went: #27 DET): Who knows, if Wieters had been off the board already this might have been their actual pick
6. Matt LaPorta (actual pick: Ross Detwiler, where player went: #7 MIL): The Cubs would probably love to have LaPorta knocking down the door on the fading Derrek Lee next year
7. Tim Alderson (actual pick: Matt LaPorta, where player went: #22 SF): Timmy is so far the highest riser other than Porcello, who only went low because of money concerns. The fact that he's done what he has at A+ ball already is the big edge here. He'd have gawdy Bumgarner like numbers had be in mere A ball.
8. Matt Dominguez (actual pick: Casey Weathers, where player went: #12 FLA): Of all the touted HS infielders in this draft, it is Dominguez that shines the brightest as he had a breakthrough 2008 at the age of 18 hitting .296/.354/.499 at A ball
9. Brett Cecil (actual pick: Parker, where player went: #38 TOR): This guy has been flat out dominant on every minor league level so far and will have a chance to crack the bigs next year. You could argue this guy could be higher because of polish, but I think this is still a good ranking.
10. Mike Moustakas (actual pick: Aumont, where player went: #2 KC): Moustakas didn't put up the most killer lines in his young pro career, but he's hit very well and when you factor in his age and position this guy is a studly offensive prospect. He could just as easily be moved up a bit, the guys from 9-11 are all quite close in my book. The Giants would be thrilled with this guy in their system at SS
11. Jarrod Parker (actual pick: Bumgarner, where player went: #9 AZ): Parker and Main are pretty interchangeable at these two spots, and I don't think you could go wrong with either.
12. Michael Main (actual pick: Dominguez, where player went: #24 TEX): Main hashad a great start to his minor league career, with a bigger sample size of innings this guy would be thought of even higher
13. Beau Mills (actual pick: Mills): The guy was billed as the most polished hitter of the draft and he's lived up to it. He tore up A+ ball at age 21 and should be doing the same in AA next year.
14. Ben Revere (actual pick: Heyward, where player went: #28 MIN): Revere has just roped the ball since coming onto the scene hitting .379 last year in A ball! Very toolsy guy and while Carlos Gomez, now scout with AZ, declared Fairley the better prospect last year, Revere has certainly passed him as the better prospect (at least right now)
15. Blake Beavan (actual pick: Mesoraco, where player went: #17 TEX): Beavan on paper looks like a poor man's Rick Procello. Doesn't have the stuff of Porcello, but he's got plenty of stuff to like about him. While I think we did better with our to ptwo pitching picks, TEXAS did a phenomenal jobs themselves
16. Josh Vitters (actual pick: Kevin Ahrens, where player went: #3 CHC): Vitters upside is still tremendous, and he had a good 2008, but his lack of plate patience is definitely a concern and his path to the majors is seemingly longer than anyone on this list. He's also one of younger people on the list as well, but it's his upside that keeps him this high
17. James SImmons (actual pick: Beavan, where player went: #26 OAK): Simmons is a polished pitcher with a decent shot of reaching the bigs next year. He might have the lowest upside of anyone listed so far, but he's stil lvery good and has a good track record at AA at the age of 21. Definite James Shields comparisons are likely to be drawn
18. Aaron Poreda (actual pick: Kozma, where player went: #25 CWS): Poreda is like the left handed version of Simmons really, great polish and command, I just think Simmons has more upside. The two are very comparable
19. Kellen Kulbacki (actual pick: Savery, where player went: #40 SD): Kulbacki really could be higher on this list, but the big concern with him is that incredibly dominant 2008 (.332/.428/.589 at A+ ball) came at age 22. There's still a lot to love about this guy, but at 22 I would just prefer he'd be at AA. 22 certainly isn't too old for A+ ball, but it's just older than I like for a guy who otherwise would be pegged as a "can't miss guy". I might be overplaying the age thing, I still think he's a tremendous prospect, but I keep him here for age. If not for that, there's easily a case for him to be 5-8 spots higher
20. JP Arencibia (actual pick: Chris Withrow, where player went: #21 TOR): The plate discipline is a major concern, but I rank him just ahead of Donaldson because he has a rep for better defense
21. Josh Donaldson (actual: Arencibia, where player went: #48 CHC) : Donaldson is another Kulbacki type player, with gawdy numbers but just slightly older than you'd like for his levels. After a great 2007, he had a horrible 08, but since being acquired by Oakland in the Harden trade this guy has been gold again.
22. Todd Frazier SS (actual pick: Tim Alderson, where player went: #34 CIN): Frazier is a SS that has put up good numbers and seems like a guy who could be an above average offensive SS. I've heard some questions about his glove, but I still think this would have been a solid pick for the Giants given their SS depth and Fraziers solid performance level.
23. Tommy Hunter (actual pick: Nick Schmidt, where player went: #54 TEX): Hunter has already reached the bigs and features tremendous control. There's plenty to like about this guy, and it's a shame he has to pitch in Arlington
24. Michael Burgess (actual pick: Main, where player went: #49 WAS): This guy fell in the draft further than I think he should have, and I was upset that the Giants passed on him at picks 32 and 43.
25. Casey Weathers (actual pick: Poreda, where player went: #8 COL): This is about where the talented relievers should be drafted, not top 10
26. Ross Detwiler (actual pick: Simmons, where player went: #6 WAS): Still plenty of upside there, but I thought he was pretty overrated
27. Corey Brown OF (actual pick: Porcello, where player went: #59 OAK): Kulbacki light, but that still is pretty good and his power and patience are a good combo.
28. Julio Borbon OF (actual pick: Revere, where player went: #35 TEX): Doesn't have too much patience or power, but he's hit over .300 a few times and has lots of tools. I probably underrate this guy a bit
29. Neil Ramirez (actual pick: Fairley, where player went: #44 TEX): A lot of upside in this young arm, and I expect in his first full year next year this guy is going to turn a lot of heads
30. Phillippe Aumont (actual pick: Brackman, where player went: #11 SEA): He showed some promise this year in the minors, his value could definitely rise next year, but he's just not qutie as successful as his fellow HS classmates
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I'll stop there for now, but some notes:
-By my standards, TEXAS clearly had the best draft, selecting 5 of my top 30.
-The top 3 players that slipped in my opinion were Tommy Hunter (dropped 31 spots), Brett Cecil (dropped 29 spots), and Donaldson (dropped 27 spots)
-The biggest overdraft was Moskos, who failed to even make my list. Of guys who made my list, it's Detwiler (dropped 20 spots)
-TEX also moved up 67 total spots of value by calculation (i.e. getting the #2 player at #10 is 8 spots of value)
-13 of my top 30 were HS players
-Guys who dropped out of top 30: Fairley, Brackman (injury), Schmidt (injury), Kozma, Withrow, Savery, Ahrens, Mesoraco, Moskos
GIANTS TAKE: We clearly did very well with our top two picks in Bumgarner and Alderson. I view them as the #4 and #7 prospects in this class right now, which means we got 19 spots of value in those wo picks. I think our #29 pick, Fairley, isn't looking too hot right now, but it's stil learly and there's plenty of talent there. If they were to draft again and everything but the Giants picked stayed the same, I'd probably want us to draft Cecil at #29, Kulbacki at #32, Burgess at #43, and Tommy Hunter at #51
Thoughts? Differing opinions?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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My two cents: I’d imagine teams would still take Moustakas over Alderson, Cecil and Dominguez, based on ceiling.
You’ve really put a lot of thought into this. Very nice work.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on Nov 14, 2008 3:44 PM PST 0 recs
yeah
I felt that whole chunk of 7-11 were all pretty close in rank. There’s a lot of variability within that group. Oddly enough the reason I sort of knock Moustakas down was because he’s already so good at hitting HR’s, so with his relatively low number of 2B’s I wasn’t sure how much more power the guy would add as he goes on (as opposed to most teens where you project immense power off of their doubles).
That’s probably a stupi thought of mine to think his power potential isn’t as high because he’s already realizing it now. Moustakas is a great prospect and was probably a slight oversight on my list
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 14, 2008 3:59 PM PST
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Quick and dirty guess at a redraft:
1. Wieters
2. Price
3. Bumgarner
4. Heyward
5. LaPorta
6. Porcello
7. Moustakas
8. Alderson
9. Dominguez
10. Cecil
by Grant on Nov 14, 2008 3:46 PM PST 0 recs
that's a good list
Mine was sort of a rough draft, and Moustakas would probably move into my top 10 with Parker boucning just out of it. I think LaPorta might have been a little high on mine as well, he’s a tremendous bat, but that’s pretty much all he is
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 14, 2008 4:00 PM PST
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Actually, I think I’d push Parker above Cecil…maybe. I dunno.
by Grant on
Nov 14, 2008 4:41 PM PST
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I agree on Heyward going higher then Laporta and Porcello. Other wise a pretty solid draft for the Giants
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Nov 14, 2008 4:00 PM PST
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hold up
Bumgarner is your #4 prospect?
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 14, 2008 5:43 PM PST 0 recs
boo this man!!
Rafael Rodriguez: He thinks Al Harrington sucks.
by BrianBokake on
Nov 14, 2008 6:37 PM PST
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I think
Donaldson and Aumont are a bit low. I’d have Donaldson around 15 or so, and Aumont around 20.
by boonitez on Nov 14, 2008 6:04 PM PST 0 recs
take out corey brown, slide in sean doolittle
this guy isnt your typical college pick, since he as a part time pitcher..full time hitting, spike in power and the results have shown
brown’s tools and power are enticing but the k’s and contact are big issues …that said he wouldve been a solid pick for giants over jack. williams…that was a weird pick
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 14, 2008 6:25 PM PST 0 recs
i think a lot of players...
would have been a better pick than Jackson “signability” Williams
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 14, 2008 8:42 PM PST
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I have no idea who you’re talking about
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on
Nov 15, 2008 8:39 AM PST
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Didn’t we pay him slot money?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 15, 2008 9:45 AM PST
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Yep
Olma Rosario; liking the cut of your jib since 2008
Free Angel Joseph from US immigration!
by Mr Scruff on
Nov 15, 2008 8:07 PM PST
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redraft wouldve giants
take heyward over madbum?
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 14, 2008 6:25 PM PST 0 recs
tough call...
If I’m the Giants, I do, if I’m another team, I take Madbum
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 14, 2008 8:43 PM PST
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Where's Jackson Williams?
You probably know it as MYANMAR, but it will always be BURMA to me!
by NuschlerFace on Nov 14, 2008 7:13 PM PST 0 recs
Darling, CA
riding with SAMCRO starring on Sons of Anarchy
by wilriv21 on
Nov 14, 2008 7:31 PM PST
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Love This Show
Reminds me of Rescue Me in some ways, but kick ass show.
For WilltheThrill, this is Jon Miller saying goodnight. . . .
by WilltheThrill on
Nov 14, 2008 9:27 PM PST
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I wouldn’t have Porcello so high. I think his first year was kind of disappointing. Only 72 strikeouts in 133 innings?? Where’s the overpowering stuff we heard so much about??
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on Nov 14, 2008 7:20 PM PST 0 recs
FWIW
I keep on hearing that the Tigers wouldn’t let him throw his curveball this year, which would definitely make a difference. I wouldn’t be worried about the K rate unless he’s like this next year.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on
Nov 14, 2008 7:56 PM PST
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he was still tremendous
even without a ridiculous K rate….imagine once they let him take his training wheels off
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 14, 2008 8:44 PM PST
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Seconded.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on
Nov 16, 2008 6:01 AM PST
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Did anybody notice that LaPorta stopped hitting as soon as he was traded? I think #10 is about the earliest I would consider drafting him.
by Evan on Nov 15, 2008 1:36 PM PST 0 recs
Do you mean...
Did anybody notice that Laporta, after being traded for the first time in his life, hit poorly in the last 67 PA’s of the season, so his overall line for the season was only .280/.387/.540. (.405 wOBA)?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 16, 2008 7:40 AM PST
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I don’t think those 67 pa’s are any more or less relevant than any others. I’m just impressed that the Brewers did such a masterful job of getting value for a prospect they didn’t have room for when his value was at its peak.
LaPorta’s relatively old and can just barely play the field. I’d take Moustakas and Dominguez and Cecil ahead of him without a second thought.
by Evan on
Nov 16, 2008 10:34 AM PST
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for what it's worth
I’ve heard his 1B defense (his college position) isn’t that bad.
by NeifiChicken on
Nov 16, 2008 12:14 PM PST
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Yeah, that would make a big difference. Did the Indians shift him back to first?
by Evan on
Nov 16, 2008 12:29 PM PST
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No
He played 15 games in LF and to as a DH.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 16, 2008 12:41 PM PST
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Major spelling fail
to = two.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Nov 16, 2008 12:42 PM PST
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I would slightly question the ranking of Bumgarner and Heyward at the top. Personally I’d flip Heyward to 3 and Bumgarner to 4, but I guess in a list like this that really hinges on what this list is saying. Is it saying who’s the better prospect today (in which case I’d put Heyward first due to the greater probabilities of a pitcher flaming out), or is it saying who would a team at the #3 spot (in which case you might very well keep Bumgarner at 3, as the very issue listed above gives team’s more incentive to stockpile as many high ceilinged pitchers as they can to offset the probabilities).
And actually, an identical discussion could be had with Price and Weiters, though in that case Weiters prime defensive position comes into play as well. For me that would cinch the argument for Weiters at 1.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Nov 16, 2008 12:33 PM PST 0 recs
agreed (especially about Wieters over Price). At this point I think of Heyward and Madbum as a wash: both are outstanding prospects with huge ceilings and are quite a bit away still (and much can happen along the way). While the point stating that the probability of a pitcher ‘flaming out’ is greater than that of a hitter is true, there doesn’t seem to be much to imply either of these particular players flaming out (as regards their skill sets), so I’m not sure I’d give that point all that much weight here.
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on
Nov 16, 2008 8:32 PM PST
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(in which case I’d put Heyward first due to the greater probabilities of a pitcher flaming out)
Are there studies concerning this truism? It’s intuitive, but then I start thinking of the Ruben Riveras and Andy Martes of the world. If I didn’t have a job, this would be the kind of study/premium content that I would offer to Gold Package McC Subscribers.
by Grant on Nov 17, 2008 11:29 AM PST 0 recs
Why yes! Yes, there are.
If i didn’t have a job, this would be exactly the kind of assertion I might back up with some supporting evidence.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on
Nov 17, 2008 12:14 PM PST
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