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Barry Zito Was Not a Good Free-Agent Signing

In honor of the AL Cy Young Award winner – Cliff Lee – I thought I’d create a little graph:

 

Oh, that tantalizing question mark. You can see that the trend – a trend that’s completely impervious to sample-size challenges or any other brand of cynicism – demonstrates that there will almost certainly be two LHSWWCCJOSBWTCYs next season. Could Barry Zito be one of them? Only time will tell.

This is the first offseason that Zito’s ridiculous contract is really, really killing me. Every question about premium free agents has the same answer:

Q: Say, should the Giants sign (large pitcher/good hitter)?

A: That would have been a great idea…if it didn’t mean that the Giants would then have to commit about 50% of their payroll to (large pitcher/good hitter) and Barry Zito, which would leave very little for the other 23 players on the team.

The Giants already have their premium free agent. It’s Barry Zito. They’ve chosen. That choice is Barry Zito. Heck, let’s all revisit the initial reaction to the signing. If you take out a magnifying glass and really dig through the text, you might be able to spot one of the 2,203 wrong predictions I made in the main post.

So now I’m in a Zito depression. I don’t really think that any pitcher, CC Sabathia included, is worth long-term, $125M+ deal...but, dang, it would be exciting to have Sabathia at the top of this rotation. Paying a first baseman $125M to stick around into his mid-30s is probably a bad idea…but, dang, it would be exciting to have Mark Teixeira for a few years.

Zito has $91.5M and five years left on his contract. This doesn’t include the bonus clauses, of course – he wins $.5M for his first Cy Young under this contract, $.75M for his second, and a cool $1M for every one thereafter.

Comment starter: How much of this damnable contract would the Giants need to eat in order to get Zito the hell out of here? Would it be worth it? The 2007 Zito, while disappointing, wasn’t exactly worthless. He would have been worth a three-year deal or so.

Open Zito Depression Thread.

Poll
Will Barry Zito be a Giant for the entire duration of his contract?
Yes
346 votes
No
334 votes

680 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 108 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Great, time to find my Paxil.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 11:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Midway through the year, Cliff Lee had a few bad starts in a row, so I figured he was done – and I dropped him from my fantasy team.

SAD.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 11:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ooooh, ouch.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 11:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I still won the league, so I probably shouldn’t moan too much.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And my starting pitchers, post-Lee, were pretty mighty:

Jake Peavy
Roy Halladay
Francisco Liriano
Matt Cain
Dan Haren

THERE IS NOTHING MORE INTERESTING THAN HEARING ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE’S FANTASY BASEBALL TEAMS!!!!

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah?

Well I had Lincecum and Cole Hamels all season. And picked up Ricky Nolasco part-way through. I picked up Pablo on a whim, mostly to be a loyal Giant fan, and he was a big help.

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Nov 13, 2008 12:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was sorely tempted to grab Pablo, but I had Mauer at C and Pujols at 1B, so I really had nowhere to put him.

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I had Lincecum, CC, Cain, and Carlos Zambrano all year. That was fun.

I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by Takimoto on Nov 13, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Please tell me you had no hitting….

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Nov 13, 2008 1:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I overpayed for lincecum in the beginning of the season

Turned out I totally won that deal

I see the future, and it is Pablo

by CB30 on Nov 13, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hamels, Sheets, Lackey, Chris Young, Cain, Haren was my best pitching squad.

One team I had was in a 10-team league. That team was ridiculous. I won’t go into details so I’ll just say that Lackey was my 6th best, Matt Garza was my 8th best pitcher. AT BEST.

by lincypoo i wuv u on Nov 13, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

since Im arrogant and I like to stroke my fantasy ego

I will indulge myself after all
Lincecum, Harden, Nolasco, Halladay, Duscherer, Lackey, Kazmir, Garza, Volquez, Harang, Mussina.
EEEEEE funnnn =D

by lincypoo i wuv u on Nov 13, 2008 2:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

does ryan howard, brian roberts, aramis, and turning nate mclouth off waivers into a-rod via trades count?

I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by Takimoto on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

100%

The Giants won’t be able to avoid paying the whole deal.

by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 13, 2008 11:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It’s possible they could do a Hampton-to-Atlanta style deal where they eat the great bulk of the contract and don’t get much in return, but that’s about it.

Maybe we should start planting evidence that Zito is a child molester so they can somehow void the contract?

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He needs to get a truck to wash

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Nov 13, 2008 12:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or a moped!

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or just give him an ownership interest in the Giants to sit down.

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Nov 13, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted ‘No’ because this is optimism week, right?

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 12:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the whole offseason is optimism week! I guess you could call the regular season, eternal pessimistic weekend.

by lincypoo i wuv u on Nov 13, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There isn’t actually a comma it that sentence, its just an illusion.

by lincypoo i wuv u on Nov 13, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It might be worse

Have read SF still owes Zito $101.5. Oh, AND he has a complete NTC. Ouch.

How much is a 4th starter worth? $5M? $7M? With five years still remaining on this deal would assume SF would have to eat $60-65M. Doesn’t sound great but would save the team $6M – 8M a season

by wilriv21 on Nov 13, 2008 12:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This brings up a good point. It’s not so bad if you think we’d be paying a #4 starter $7M anyway. We’re really only “wasting” about $11M a season.

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, that makes me feel better.

*Jerry Seinfeld wide eye making fun of people face *

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 13, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

NO

There is going to be a point where the Giants will release him…a la Russ Ortiz with the DBacks. Sabean might not be GM by then

by NeifiChicken on Nov 13, 2008 12:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Stop

that thought is too beautiful to mention

by bondslegend on Nov 13, 2008 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

He’ll be DFA’d by 2012 at the latest.

by Change Up on Nov 13, 2008 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

According to the Mayans, the world will end in 2012. Coincidence?

Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Nov 13, 2008 11:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just watched the preview to that movie

looks pretty effin awesome if I do say so myself…

Of course, there is the part about the world being covered in water i spose.

by bondslegend on Nov 14, 2008 1:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Grant depresses me, boo Grant. I want my Cy Young for Timmy high back!

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. Rogers Hornsby

by igotnothing on Nov 13, 2008 12:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you are forgetting the key “loves himself” chart in which Zito destroys the competition.

by fwoty oz on Nov 13, 2008 12:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

or the coveted “calls in to argue with radio hosts” equation. I’ll bet Lee never did that.

by fwoty oz on Nov 13, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This thread cheered me up

I was thinking there’s six years remaining on the deal. Being reminded that there’s only five years left was great news.

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 12:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think there's a player option at the end

So it’ll probably end up being six more years

My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Nov 13, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's a hidden clause

Which dooms all of us to watch starts by Barry Zito in a Giants uniform for eternity.

No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.

by Kitspool on Nov 13, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it was player..

I hope to god it wasn’t player. *looks *

Per Cot’s:

2014: $18 million club option. $7 million buyout. Option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13.

Wow…2013 feels a long way in the future…..

But anyway, there is hope! If his 2014 option vests, Zito may opt out and the buyout only becomes $3.5 million! I see that as a positive.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 13, 2008 1:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s a pretty safe bet that whoever’s managing the team will be fired if he lets Zito pitch enough to meet those vesting targets.

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

neutered...

It’s a pretty safe bet that whoever’s managing the team will be fired executed if he lets Zito pitch enough to meet those vesting targets.

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Nov 13, 2008 3:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball economic crisis

Grant, maybe if some of you Sf’ers have some pull with Nancy Pelosi, could you see about getting the Giants included in the government bailout? I’m pretty sure our bad debt (Zito) is hindering our competitive advantage in the marketplace. And surely Brian Sabean is just as undeserving as the heads of GM, Ford, Chrysler, AIG, et al.

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Nov 13, 2008 12:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Barry Zito =Credit Default Swap

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 13, 2008 1:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe we should have picked a better day to pick on Zito:
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2008/11/13/660652/rip-barry-zito-s-mom

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 12:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I was going to make a tasteless ‘Fred Lewis driving’ joke here, but I let it go.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s almost like you are developing a heart. New emotion chip?

by chilibean_3 on Nov 13, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What — is — love?

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Baby don’t hurt me… don’t hurt me… no more.

by deuce deuce on Nov 13, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Whoa..whoa..whoa…whoa

Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Nov 14, 2008 9:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Damn. Bad timing.

by Grant on Nov 14, 2008 1:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even a crappy pitcher like Zito would probably be worth three years, $36 million on the market. So looking at it that way, the Giants would have to eat two full seasons worth of the contract and about $6-$8 million of the other three seasons, thus coming up with a total swallowing of about $54-$65 million of the contract. I just can’t see that happening. Maybe when he has only three years left on the contract, but I don’t think it’s possible with five.

by deuce deuce on Nov 13, 2008 12:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

think outside the box

giants should restructure Zito’s contract to 30 yrs at 3-4 million per year…

ZIto at 18Mil = CRAZY
Zito at 4 Mil = GREAT #4 P

by cazzuno on Nov 13, 2008 12:34 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

sounds like my student loan payment schedule

I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by Takimoto on Nov 13, 2008 12:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Most expensive LOOGY in history

but he was actually effective against lefties this season. They hit only .213/.316/.287 against him. So, if we keep him, that’s probably where he’ll end up.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 13, 2008 12:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

That was fluky, though. Over his career, he’s been more effective against righties than lefties.

by Evan on Nov 13, 2008 1:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Over his career

He’s also been a good pitcher.

Things change.

by FairweatherFan on Nov 13, 2008 9:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

$126 million

…lefthanded specialist out of the ’pen!

Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.

by ThrillisGone22 on Nov 13, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I am curious to see how next year turns out

He had a pretty decent last half of the season. I know that’s pretty characteristic of him, but it looks like he figured out the problems that plagued him in the beginning of last year. If he has another year or half a year of utter crappiness, then I think we start talking about shipping him somewhere and eating the contract. One more year to redeem himself. Even if he can put up a line of 6 IP, 3 ER, that’s handled quite easily as a fan. And I still think he can accomplish at least that. Yes, I am an eternal optimist.

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 13, 2008 1:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

How sad is it that a 4.59 ERA for the highest paid pitcher in history now counts as “pretty decent”?

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 1:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It was pretty decent compared to his first half 5.50+ ERA!

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He was also better in the 2nd half of 2007. Perhaps, the team should use him in the ‘pen as a loogy the first half, then move him to the rotation in the 2nd half is someone’s hurt of ineffective.

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why isn’t he pitching winter ball for the Indios de Mayaguez?

by wilriv21 on Nov 13, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He’s at Brian Wilson Boot Camp.

The new tats alone should add 4-6 mph to the old fastball.

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Nov 13, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Zito could add MPH by changing his motion although it would likely adversely affect his control.

by Change Up on Nov 13, 2008 3:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

bah

of course the changeup would say that!

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 13, 2008 3:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Anagram of "Will Barry Zito be a Giant for the entire duration of his contract?"

ARROGANT, INEFFICIENT BROWN ROT COHABITS THROATILY. ADULTERIZE!

Anagram of "Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum" = TENSE, CLIMACTIC, TRIUMPHING

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Nov 13, 2008 1:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jeezus man...

Wait! You’re missing an e!

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 13, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Experience is beating hope by 6 votes

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Nov 13, 2008 1:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

7 votes now

YES WE CAN BUT PROBABLY SHOULDN’T

My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Nov 13, 2008 1:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Change-up we can believe in!

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't beleive it's this close..

He’s pitching his entire career here.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 13, 2008 1:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

zito to the dodgers

Zito is owed $91M+ for the next 5 years. He’s also from SoCal, so he might approve this trade.

Giants get Juan Pierre, who is owed $28.5M for 2009-11 plus Jason Schmidt, who is owed $12M for 2009 plus about $8M in signing bonuses.

We get two of agent ned’s three biggest blunders, he only gets one of ours. he gets a starting pitcher with a perfect history of health to replace a pitcher who hasn’t given them anything and has only known success with the giants. we get noodle arm, who we can DFA for all i care.

why would the dodgers do it? they have gotten nothing for their $36M invested in Schmidt, whereas they get dependability AND good looks in zito (trust me, i live in socal and these asscats care about these things). Instead of sinking $20M into a void in schmidt they get their starting pitcher and get rid of their logjam in the outfield.

why would we do it? we free up $43M+ and get a slight boost with the fairweathers in bringing back a name they all know.

this wackiness is all about going for tex/cc. if we are making a run and zito’s contract is the hangup then hopefully there is thinking along these lines.

Dodgers fans eat their young.

by redhornet78 on Nov 13, 2008 2:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good

they never will be interested in Lincecum

by wilriv21 on Nov 13, 2008 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe they’d throw in Matt Kemp while we have Ned Coletti replaced with a the Giants robot we would need to actually agree to that trade.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Nov 14, 2008 12:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Along the same line of this discussion...

What dollar amount do you all think it would take to buy out Zito’s contract in cash right now?

$60 million? If I was the Giants, I’d probably think about it at $40-50 million.

Yes we did!

by Goofus on Nov 13, 2008 3:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

nope

giants release zito the final year of his contract two months before the year is over

by kingofthacove on Nov 13, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

That sounds right.

by Evan on Nov 13, 2008 8:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad timing

If that report on his mom is true…

I think Zito will have a much better year in 2009. He started doing things in games late in the season that he hasn’t really done since his first years in the majors with regards to striking out batters. Of course, that’s when he was very good and won the Cy Young.

Assuming he can continue that into 2009, since he is now clearly demonstrating skills he hasn’t shown in years, our rotation could be pretty awesome, probably Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, and [fill in the blank], as both Cain and Sanchez also demonstrated new abilities in 2008 that speak well for 2009 if continued.

Cain for the first time was able to keep his ERA low on the road and not just at AT&T. That’s a huge change for him, because previously he would pitch well at home, poorly on the road, giving inconsistent results.

Sanchez was pitching like an ace for most of the season until he hit the wall and starting giving up runs left and right. That appears to be a wall that, if he strengthens up over the winter, won’t hit him in 2009 and he would be able to dominate throughout the season.

That would give us 4 top of the rotation performances out of every 5 starts, and even with a poor offense like 2008, we should be able to be competitive in 2009, which is the goal laid out right after the season. Well that and good relievers to bridge to Wilson.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 13, 2008 3:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

re: Matt Cain

The home/road split was only an issue for him in 2006. His home/road ERA split by year:

2005: 2.73 / 2.52
2006: 3.22 / 5.57
2007: 3.48 / 3.84
2008: 3.67 / 3.88

So I don’t see how 2008 was a breakthrough for him in that regard. In fact, it’s not much different from 2007. The 2006 split looks like it may have been a fluke

Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly

by jcb9 on Nov 13, 2008 4:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Assuming he can continue that into 2009, since he is now clearly demonstrating skills he hasn’t shown in years, our rotation could be pretty awesome, probably Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, and [fill in the blank], as both Cain and Sanchez also demonstrated new abilities in 2008 that speak well for 2009 if continued.

The problem is that he didn’t clearly demonstrate any skill in the 2nd half of ’08 that he had during his successful years. That is unless you count a higher BB% and a lower K% as such skills.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Nov 13, 2008 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Look up Zito’s strikeout graph on Fangraphs. Almost every year he has an extended streak in which he gets decent strikeout numbers, just like last year.

by Evan on Nov 13, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe...

maybe if the giants could like… you know… score runs… he could even out that record with some no decisions and 9-7 nailbiters.

Now you see that evil shall always triumph over good, because good is dumb!

by TrojanCBB on Nov 13, 2008 5:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Unreal thought time!!!

How about the Giants send down Zito and never call him up. Then he would agree to a buy out of less than 50% of his remaining contract so that he can pitch somewhere else.
Hey a guy can dream right?

Pac Bell, SBC, AT&T, 2010=???

by jt_7241 on Nov 13, 2008 5:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This has been discussed before..

And I don’t really think we know if we can do it. He never used up all of his “options” but then again he has muchos service time.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Nov 13, 2008 5:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that was weird...

My “yes he will” vote made the total exactly 151 yes, 151 no.

I am surprised that so many people are voting “no” in the poll.

Is it because you all are thinking that at some point he’ll just be DFA’d? ‘Cuz there ain’t no way he’s getting traded. But I have to say that even if he were just released, I sort of doubt that he would ever play again. Which raises the question: Should I answer the poll “yes” or “no” if I think Zito will pitch for the Giants through 2010 and then never pitch (for anyone) again?

by taliesin on Nov 13, 2008 6:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It’s because we really want him to be gone. Oh, how we want him to be gone.

by chilibean_3 on Nov 13, 2008 7:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Another wishful thinking possibility:

Within the next 5 years, he retires from baseball to pursue his modeling career full time.

by rightcenterfielder on Nov 13, 2008 8:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Nov 13, 2008 9:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Mike Hampton got traded

There’s hope for Zito.

That said, I voted yes.

My current Interwebs obsession is pretty awesome. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Nov 13, 2008 10:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted no because I’m hoping the Giants will buy him out when it gets to the last two or three years.

by parisspleen on Nov 13, 2008 9:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

In my opinion

Zito showed flashes of dominance in the second half of last season that he hasn’t shown in a long while.

While his peripherals have steadily been declining for years, that decline predicted he would not be a great pitcher – not that he would be a completely useless pitcher. He experienced a sharp increase in BB/9 in 2008. This combined with a significant drop in K/9 resulted in a dramatic downgrade to his K/BB ratio. Combine that w/ an elevated BABIP and you end up giving up a lot of runs. (Even worse than 2007).

I would like to think that what we might have on our hands is a case of good Zito/Bad Zito. When he’s got it, he’s an okay pitcher. Not worth his contract, but good enough to find a spot in any rotation in baseball.

When he’ doesn’t, he’s walking guys like crazy and just looking for a point to implode. That’s the 0-8 Zito.

That is probably not a talent level thing, and more of a mental thing. Can he figure it out? I have no idea – but I think there’s a significant chance that Zito pitches well enough sometime over the next 4 years to earn himself a plane ticket somewhere else.

FWIW, Bill James predicts a 4.63 FIP for Zito next season ;)

by FairweatherFan on Nov 13, 2008 9:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Agree with this;

I think Zito will actually be a .500 pitcher in 2009 with a 4.25 ERA, after his stint as Brian Wilson’s workout buddy. It won’t be worth $15-17 million per year, but I’ll take baby steps towards respectability right now. If he can gobble up 175 innings from the #4 spot at that ERA, they’ll be fine. I think that Sabean will take a hard look at another pitcher to gobble up 175-200 innings from the last rotation spot (a salary swap of Rowand for Vazquez?), which will help that bullpen.

Matt Cain's drinking buddy

by Buck Henry on Nov 13, 2008 10:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would like to think that what we might have on our hands is a case of good Zito/Bad Zito. When he’s got it, he’s an okay pitcher. Not worth his contract, but good enough to find a spot in any rotation in baseball.

When he’ doesn’t, he’s walking guys like crazy and just looking for a point to implode. That’s the 0-8 Zito.

That is probably not a talent level thing, and more of a mental thing.

I disagree. The way I see it, it is a talent issue – or more precisely, a “stuff” issue. All pitchers have good days and bad days – sometimes your control isn’t there, sometimes a certain pitch isn’t working – but the only difference is that pitchers with good stuff have something to fall back on. When Cain is having control problems, he’s obviously not as good as he can be, but his stuff is good enough to (usually) not get his ass kicked, since he can still get strikeouts and isn’t hit that hard. When Lincecum’s change up isn’t working, he might not be the Cy Young winner that we know, but he still gets around by using his fastball-curveball combination.

Zito doesn’t have anything to fall back on, because he has such mediocre stuff. He needs his control, because batters will rarely chase his pitches. He needs his change up, because it’s the only thing that makes his fastball look almost decent. So when he’s got everything working for him, he’s a good pitcher, but it’s enough that something isn’t clicking, and he’s pretty much worthless. I just don’t think there’s anything to “figure out” – no one can be always on.

My guess is that Zito will pretty much stay the pitcher that he’s been for the past two years – good when he’s on, very bad when he’s not. He’ll always look like he’s “almost there” (“if he can just pitch like he did two days ago, he’ll be a good pitcher”), like he just needs to make some mental adjustments, but he won’t, because it’s not about mentality – it’s about pure stuff, and, at 31 y-o, there’s not much he can do about it.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Nov 14, 2008 3:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Nov 14, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You raise some valid points

And I may be guilty of a little bit of wishcasting. I guess my underlying point is that the on/off isn’t a physical thing, it’s a mental thing. His muscles don’t work differently one day than they do another – it’s in his head.

If he can be more on than he has been, he has a shot at being serviceable.

Be serviceable at the right time and you can find yourself being traded to a contender in need of a #5 at the deadline.

Especially if you are serviceable with flashes of dominance which I think Zito can be.

by FairweatherFan on Nov 14, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And I may be guilty of a little bit of wishcasting. I guess my underlying point is that the on/off isn’t a physical thing, it’s a mental thing. His muscles don’t work differently one day than they do another – it’s in his head.

I’m not sure that it’s completely mental. We may not be able to see it, but I think it’s likely that at least part of it is physical – maybe his arm hurts a bit, maybe he didn’t get enough sleep last night, etc…

More importantly, though, I’m trying to say that even if it is a mental issue, it’s like that for everyone, not just Zito – It’s just more noticeable when Zito isn’t on.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Nov 15, 2008 10:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

this is quite a tight race

by bondslegend on Nov 14, 2008 1:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

BTW OT

QUANTUMZ OFF SOLAZE!1 I WUZ TOTLY THER FOAR TEH MIDNITE SHOWZ TEH AUHSUHMZ

by bondslegend on Nov 14, 2008 1:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

and?

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 14, 2008 7:09 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What part of “TEH AUHSUHMZ” do you not understand?

Check out The Examined Life. Or don't. Whatever.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Nov 14, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

UGH WHUT A NUWBZ

it was OK. Definitely not a typical “bond” film, but neither was CR. But this even less so. Still pretty fun though.

by bondslegend on Nov 14, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Barry Zito Was Not a Good Free-Agent Signing"

But where’s your proof, Grant? Huh?

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | art | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Nov 14, 2008 1:45 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

it's the mainstream media

they’re out to get him.

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 14, 2008 7:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted no, but it’s pretty much up in the air at the moment. He’s certainly going to be a Giant for a while yet, but there’s a reasonable chance he won’t always be. I think with Zito, it’ll be an issue for a couple of years time.

In a couple of years, we’ll hopefully have internal pitchers who are requiring Zito’s spot (Bumgarner & Alderson the obvious ones). Hopefully Zito will rebound from last year & be able to put up reasonable numbers over the next couple of years. He’s not going to put up great numbers or be worth the money, but if he can perform at around his 2007 level then he’d still be a useful pitcher. He’ll also only have 3 years left under contract, so would be much more tradable, although not obviously without eating money. If say we ate half of it (leaving him with around 3/$30M left) then i could see us trading him to someone in need of experienced starting pitching.

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on Nov 14, 2008 4:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good Lesson Here...

This thread (a good one, BTW) should illustrate a good lesson for those looking to sink big money/long term contract to one player: In the recent past, very few teams that did it have been happy with the results.

In the late 90s’ early 00’s, there was a flurry of six such mega-deals (7 years or more, $90-100m or more): Mike Piazza (Mets), Jason Giambi (Yanks), Ken Griffey Jr. (Reds), Manny Ramirez (Red Sox), Shawn Green (Dodgers), Mike Hampton (Rockies). With the passage of time, we now have some perspective on them. With the possible exception of the Mets and Red Sox, every team lived to regret it. And even the Mets and Red Sox surely regretted it toward year 3 or 4. The other 5 teams were saying to themselves “What were we thinking?” early on.

Since that time, there have been fewer mega-deals, and they have been a mixed bag – from Carlos Beltran to Barry Zito.

The main point: Such long term mega deals are fraught with risk – and leverage. If you do not know what leverage means (essentially doubling down on a risky bet), read up on Bear Stearns.

by kar120c on Nov 14, 2008 5:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wish we could be stuck with Beltran…

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | art | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Nov 14, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Yankees aren't listening

CC! CC!!! WE MUST OUTBID THEM FOAR HIM

by bondslegend on Nov 14, 2008 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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