McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List: #5
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Buster Posey
3. Tim Alderson
4. Angel Villalona
Conor Gillaspie, 3B, 21 - Drafted 2008, #37 overall. Hit .419/.500/.697 with 38 BB and 22 K over 234 AB his junior year of college at Wichita State in 2008. Hit .269/.352/.344 between Rookie Ball and Low-A in 2008 over 93 AB. He torched the Cape Cod league, a wooden bat league, in 2007 with a .345/.448/.673 line, earning league MVP award. Projects to hit for good average, a good OBP, and decent power.
Nick Noonan, 2B, 19 - Drafted 2007, #32 overall. Hit .316/.357/.451 over 206 AB in Rookie Ball in 2007 with 18 SB and 3 CS in 2007. Hit .279/.315/.415 over 499 AB in A-Ball in 2008 with 29 SB and 4 CS. Survived an aggressive assignment to Augusta in 2008.
Roger Kieschnick, OF, 21 - Drafted 2008, #82 overall. Hit .302/.373/.621 over 232 AB with 24 BB and 44 K his sophmore year of college at Texas Tech in 2007. Hit .305/.407/.632 over 220 AB with 35 BB and 42 K his junior year. Is hitting approximately .261/.368/.500 in the HWL. He is a big, toolsy player who is considered to have not broken out yet despite his good college numbers.
Brandon Crawford, SS, 21 - Drafted 2008, #117 overall. Hit .335/.404/.504 over 248 AB with 25 BB and 58 K his sophmore year of college at UCLA in 2007. Hit .302/.394/.491 over 232 AB with 31 BB and 59 K his junior year. He is another toolsy player considered to have not broken out yet.
Travis Ishikawa, 1B, 25 - Drafted 2002, #637 overall. Hit .260/.355/.454 over ~2500 AB in the minors across all levels. Broke out in 2008 with a .291/.382/.462 line in AA and a .310/.370/.737 line in AAA before hitting .274/.337/.432 in the majors. He is also a great defensive firstbaseman.
Kevin Pucetas, RHP, 23 - Drafted 2006, #506 overall. Over three seasons has thrown 342.2 IP, 300 H, 267 K, 69 BB, 17 HR, 1.08 WHIP, 2.47 ERA, and ~53% groundball rate across the three levels of A-ball. In 2008 threw 125.1 IP, 115 H, 102 K, 27 BB, 6 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 3.02 ERA, and a 51% groundball rate in High-A. He throws a high 80's, low 90's fastball, a fantastic change, a curve, and an in-progress slider.
Henry Sosa, RHP, 23 - Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. Over three seasons has thrown 215.2 IP, 179 H, 238 K, 93 BB, 19 HR, 1.26 WHIP, and a 3.22 ERA. His 2008 season was derailed early on when he tore his patella tendon. When he came back he threw 56.1 IP, 62 H, 58 K, 18 BB, 6 HR, 1.42 WHIP, 4.31 ERA, and a 38% groundball rate. He throws a fastball in the mid to high 90's, a curve, and a change.
Wendell Fairley, OF, 20 - Drafted 2007, #29 overall. Hit .259/.388/.337 over 193 AB in Rookie Ball in 2008 with 26 BB and 37 K. He has incredible tools with plus raw power and great speed.
Rafael Rodriguez, OF, 16 - Signed out of the Domincan Republic on his 16th birthday. As Baggs has put it, "Rodriguez is big — 6 foor-5 and 195 pounds — and plays an athletic right field. He has a strong arm, is a good runner and projects to hit for power."
Testers - Ehire Adrianza, Skip Barnes, Justin Hedrick, Joseph Martinez, Brian Anderson, Thomas Neal, Clayton Tanner
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
4 recs |
162 comments
Comments
Going with Noonan here
he has had pro ABs and seems to have good power. I will take the devil I know to the devil I don’t.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on Nov 11, 2008 6:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
And it finally gets interesting.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 11, 2008 6:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I went with Noonan. Sosa’s another possibility, but his injuries this past year knocked him down a notch below Noonan for me.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 11, 2008 6:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
nooooooooooooooooooooonan
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 11, 2008 6:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
indeed
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 11, 2008 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Went with Gillaspie. He’s a polished, college player from a solid program, so you’d expect him to move fast. He’s already shown a good eye and good plate discipline as a pro (albeit in a small sample size) meaning he stands out in the Giants organization. And he’s a 3B, probably our single weakest position as a franchise.
Anyway, I think there are lots of reasons to like Cocky McCockerson (thanks Baggs!) but for me I think it’s how close he is to being ready now plus the fact that he really looks like he’ll be able to get on base as a pro, two really, really big factors.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 11, 2008 6:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m kind of tempted to go with Kieschnick. I don’t know, I really like him. This one is hard. (That’s what she said!)
Noonan is probably the safe pick here, but I’m really just not that high on him.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 11, 2008 6:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I haven’t actually chosen anyone yet.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 11, 2008 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well, jeez, will you hurry the frak up?
some of us need to move on with our lives!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 11, 2008 6:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I’m going with my gut (Kieschnick)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 11, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
gut fail
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 12, 2008 7:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly how I feel. I voted for Kieschnick, as much as I hate having to type his name.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 11, 2008 6:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
too many consonants
Mr Keischnick, meat Mr Schierholtz.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 11, 2008 8:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
meet Mr Teixeira?
Kyle Nicholson: the fyootch
by stealth snail on Nov 11, 2008 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s what you said!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Nov 11, 2008 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t get all the Kieschnick love around these parts. He’s a good pick at #82, and he’s hitting nicely in the HWB, but he still has little defensive value and is a big question mark with the bat. I know you’re not a fan of Noonan, but what about Gillaspie? BA had Gillaspie at #23 and Kieschnick at #44. SaberScouting had Gillaspie at #26 and Kieschnick at #48.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 12, 2008 4:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s not even hitting well in Hawaii anymore. .242 with 4 home runs and a stupendous 42 strikeouts in 95 at-bats.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 6:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
.243/.344/.476 with 5 home runs...
He also has five doubles and two triples, and has 16 walks for his secondary average.
Considering that the HWB is generally a not offensive league (although this year, there’s 11 players with .300+ averages, the most I can remember), I like what I see so far. Kieschnick is tied for second in home runs (Kyle Martin leads with 6), and is 9th in slugging percentage.
SFDugout.com is BACK! See the Top 50 Giants Prospects!
by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, adopted son, your turn is next (at least in my eyes)
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Nov 11, 2008 6:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I went with Noonan
but I could see Gillaspie or Sosa here as well
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 11, 2008 6:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wendell for Me. I believe in him!
Hasheem "The Beat" Thabeet or Brandon Jennings. A Warrior in 09.
by ejdacanay on Nov 11, 2008 7:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
went with kieschnick
although I almost picked fairley or gillaspie
While I think Noonan’s a decent prospect (and I love the name), I can’t bring myself to put him this high, since neither his upside or performance are particularly great. Kieschnick has the upside so I went with him, although I like Fairley’s approach a lot.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 11, 2008 7:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Fairley over Noonan?
Fairley, 20 y-o, Rk league: .259/.347/.337, 19.2 K%, 11.9 BB%.
Noonan (2007), 18 y-o, Rk: .316/.353/.451, 9.7 K%, 5.5 BB%.
This year Noonan posted similar contact numbers to Fairley’s, but showed much worse plate discipline. On the other hand, Noonan hit for more power, was a better baserunner, and played two levels higher, even though he’s a year younger than Fairley. Fairley is more patient, but Noonan is pretty much as good as him or better in every other aspect of the game.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 12, 2008 4:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Noonan's strikeout rate
has utility player written all over it
waiting for 2011....
by Osama91w9 on Nov 11, 2008 7:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Vote Kieschnick!
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Nov 11, 2008 7:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not getting the Kieschnick thing. How does he rank ahead of Gillaspie, for example?
by Evan on Nov 11, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
power potential whooo
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Nov 11, 2008 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sexy, sexy tools as well.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 11, 2008 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
his upside is trememdous
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Nov 11, 2008 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel the whooo, but the power is all he has going for him, right? Gillaspie has a big edge in contact hitting, speed, defensive ability, wood bat success, and having a cool name.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 6:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
had to go sosa
i think it’s a tie between noonan, kiesch, and sosa, and personally i’d rather have a pitcher then a hitter, so there ya go
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Nov 11, 2008 7:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I am in support of Gillespie here, slightly ahead of Ishikawa. yes, I said it
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 11, 2008 7:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
nice to have our first non-blowout
Which brings up the question, what happens in the event of a tie? Or at least a very close vote…
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 11, 2008 7:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Or more specifically, how close does it have to be for a tiebreaker?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 11, 2008 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tiebreakers will be settled by whoever generates the most fake accounts.
by Evan on Nov 11, 2008 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I Would Be Happy To Break The Tie
But my pick would have to be Steve Hammond, and he is not given as an option.
BAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
by Outside The Box Thinking on Nov 11, 2008 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate ties
but I think we all can agree that you come in handy when there’s no me.
Never Question the McCoven!
by Group Think on Nov 12, 2008 12:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We’re going to set the closeness bar at 2% and if it’s that close we’ll have a runoff.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 11, 2008 8:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Runoff?
We no need no stinkin’ runoff. One guy is #5 and one guy is #6 and McCoven moves on to #7.
by wilriv21 on Nov 12, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Something like this might be an option. We could just name them tied for #5 if they’re close enough and then move onto #7. I’m hesitant to name one of them the victor if they only have a few votes between them.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 12, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Run-off
I think we should do a run-off. I wasted my vote on a third party Ishi.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yes on run-off
If 2 guys get a total of half the vote and are 2% apart, then we don’t know how the other half would have voted between those 2, and it’s close enough that it’s worth doing a run-off.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Nov 12, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta go with Conor…duh
Bill Mueller? I expect at least A-Rod type numbers from my son, Conor Gillaspie
by Gamer101 on Nov 11, 2008 8:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Rodriguez
The odds are lower for him “making it” because he’s so far away, but if Noonan was on another team, would you trade Rodriguez for him?
by NeifiChicken on Nov 11, 2008 8:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would, yeah. Noonan is on the major-league track at a key defensive position. RRod is purely speculative at this point.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 6:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
my rank so far
1. Madbum
2. Alderson
3. Villalona
4. Posey
5. Rafael Rodriguez
by NeifiChicken on Nov 11, 2008 8:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. Bumgarner
2. Alderson
3. Villalona
4. Posey
5. Ishikawa
Ishikawa came on strong in 2008. He has power, is a run producer and plays a solid “D”. The signing of Josh Phelps should make for a fine platoon with Ishikawa. Hope as the season progresses that Ishikawa will continue his improvement and become an everyday 1b.
by wilriv21 on Nov 11, 2008 9:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on this
Ishikawa had a super season in 2008 and proved that he deserves a shot at the 1b job. He showed good power and on base skills in Connecticut and Fresno and the defense is solid. He’s our only “true” first baseman. Given that he’s ready to produce at the major league level and none of the others is an overwhelming prospect, at this point anyway, Ish got my vote. He needs to cut down on the k’s and hopefully he’ll get more than 3 abs against lefties this year to show he can at least compete against them. But perhaps I’m overly optimistic of him going into 2009.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 12, 2008 12:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Ishikawa for the 6-8 range, but i think the community will have him around #10
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 6:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ishikawa making it under 15 is nuts.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where would you put him, xan?
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Nov 12, 2008 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
After 15
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 12, 2008 7:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, Lyle. Probably between 15-20, maybe closer to 20? I’d have to think about it.
I love the resurgence that TI had last season but still, what’s his top ceiling? A league average 1B? I know we’re starved for hitting but that’s not top-10 prospect status to me.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I think people are missing on the positional adjustment for TI.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 12, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and theoretically, if you gave Josh Phelps and TI 500 PA’s in a season, would either one really separate himself from the other? And we got Phelps for nothing. Not a knock on TI, but I think his ceiling is pretty limited.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 8:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
BBTF just did a ZiPS today for Phelps, he works out to: .273/.339/.457 OPS+ 106 over 400-something PA’s. Not bad for a free pickup.
Does anyone think TI will blow that away?
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think he’ll blow that away, but (a) he’s a pretty good fielder, which boosts his value quite a bit relative to Phelps and the other cheap fill-in first basemen who are generally available, and (b) he’s still young enough that he has a shot at getting better.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think if we go conservative (which is always good to do with a player like Ishikawa who we haven’t seen much of defensively in the majors) and call TI a +5 run defensive 1B he separates himself from a guy like Phelps some but nothing huge.
I’m not saying he’s worse or better than Phelps, per say, but I’m saying that I don’t think he’s a top-15 prospect in our farm system because if he shakes out in a best case scenario, he’s a league average 1B with a slightly above average glove.
I agree with your point B) to an extent, he’s young which goes in his favor but his development has been topsy-turvy and I think looking at his youth and expecting him to “potentially” get better could set some up for disappointment.
There’s a difference between TI and Phelps but it’s not that large and I just can’t see him being a top-15 prospect.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To me, Ishikawa just isn’t what I think of as a “prospect.” I’m glad he’s still in the org and I’m optimistic that he can fill a position cheaply for us for a few years, but he’s as much a finished product as Schierholtz or Burriss or Bowker or Sandoval — more, really. So yeah, I’ll probably vote for him in the 12-15 range, but it doesn’t really make sense to have him on the list but not those other guys.
I know there’s a universally endorsed cutoff for prospect eligibility — 130 ab or 50 innings in the major leagues — but it’s arbitrary and anachronistic, and possibly pernicious, in that it permits Brian Sabean to consider Pablo Sandoval “proven” because he had a run of 145 good at-bats in the majors.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he considers him proven
I think Sandoval earned his chance to start with his great season. As we’ve seen before, just because you start at the start of the season you don’t keep it: if you don’t produce, you won’t keep the position.
I think it was prudent of Sabean to name Burriss and Sandoval starters, gives them a reward for doing well plus it’s not like you are trying to fill out the whole infield, you can focus on getting two players, one middle, one corner.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 12, 2008 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t have a link handy, but there was definitely a quote at the end of the season in which Sabean said that Sandoval had proven he could hit in the big leagues, or words to that effect.
My problem here is that Sabean’s definition of a proven player is mathematically illiterate. It’s quite possible that Sandoval and Burriss could have extended hot streaks despite not being good hitters yet—in fact, I think it’s extremely likely that that’s what happened. Dan Ortmeier had a nice run of 157 at-bats in 2007; it wasn’t real. John Bowker was an outstanding hitter for his first 200 at-bats; the league and the law of averages caught up to him.
If you treat these guys like their major-league stats are real, you make mistakes in player evaluation, and you can screw up their development with premature “rewards” and hasty demotions.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that’s my thinking, i’m really pleased with him, but in terms of a prospect list i don’t see him as being all that high. He’s obviously got a better chance of reaching his ceiling than anyone on the list, but i just don’t see a huge amount of upside with him. As you say, the best hope is that he’s an average 1B, which is still very valuable, but not much upside compared to the others.
The other players on this list, with the exception of Pucetas, all have much higher ceilings, and whilst most won’t reach their ceilings, i can’t really rank TI above them. To put it in other words, if you were offered Ishikawa in a trade, how many of the other players would you trade for him? I can’t say i’d trade any of them for him.
I do agree with Evan, that he’s a bit misplaced on a list like this, of course he’s still a prospect technically, but he doesn’t really fit with the rest of the players, so it’s difficult to place him. That of course is exacerbated by the fact that there’s no other reasonable prospects in the high minors, which means he’s rather or his own on this list.
Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!
by GiantFan on Nov 12, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It seems I was passed by a bit...
…that’s what a big test will do to you. I think that “potential” is overvalued. Ishikawa is very close to Major League ready. He’s not quite there, but the dearth of 1B talent puts him in line as the likely starter next season. I value players who have proven results and show improvement. I get that this was Ishikawa’s breakout season and that continued production at that level is not certain, but Iskikawa has hit upper minors pitching. I will tend to value more known quantities (such as ishikawa) higher than unknowns like RafRod, Kieschnick, crawford and fairley. How known Ishikawa is is up to debate, but I will put him around 8 based on what I have laid out. As for some of your points Xanthan, I believe that while his bat may not get much above average as the years go on, his glove will improve the first few years in the majors. I could see Ishikawa peaking at +10 defensively.
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't really rank Rodriguez
he still hasn’t even played yet. Really all you can base his rank off of is what those ESPN articles said about Dominicanand Venezuelan FA signings, which doesn’t give you much info. I wouldn’t rank him at all until at least next year.
by boonitez on Nov 12, 2008 5:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is where it gets tougher
Toss up bewtween Gillaspie and Noonan
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Nov 11, 2008 8:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
27 Homeruns
between Conn, Fresno and SF. He may be best suited as a platoon 1st baseman, and left-handed pitch hitter. He’s “old” at 25 compared to the teens on the list thus far. A pair of converted catchers may steal all of his thunder, but he’s got a decent chance at contributing nice power and OBP next year. He probably has the best power potential out of the remaining choices. Well no. Rafa Rodriguez and Roger Kieschnick and maybe even Fairley could have a bigger potential. But, he’ll hit more dingers in the Majors in 2009 than any of those guys. His note above that he was drafted #637 overall doesn’t do justice to the fact it was a surprise and expensive signing that draft. I’m going away from the 2008 and 2007 draft/signing class and naming Travis Ishikawa my #5.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 11, 2008 8:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I went with Gillaspie, primarily because his pre-draft rankings and scouting reports were better than Noonan’s. Neither has really done enough in pro ball to make it clear who’s better.
I honestly don’t know who’s the fifth best prospect.
by Dan from NM on Nov 11, 2008 8:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Though I guess none of us KNOW who the fifth best prospect is. we do know, however, who the third-best starter is…
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 11, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fifth best prospect
AT BEST!
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Nov 12, 2008 9:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I went with Noonan
Though Gillaspie and RafRod were both intriguing too. and this was purely a gut pick too.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Nov 11, 2008 9:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Tough call....
I went with Gillaspie. I get the feeling that Gillaspie and Noonan are supposed to have a number of similarities (refined hitting approach, good contact skills, power development unsure), but it seems that Gillaspie is closer/more advanced (being a college product, and having done well on the Cape). He’s also shown more plate discipline than Noonon in professional ball, albeit in a very small sample size. There was also some talk that he might be able to play second base, which could erase any positional scarcity advantage.
That being said, it was tempting to go with Kieschnick. Boy does this organization need some power hitting.
by Ian in Tokyo on Nov 11, 2008 9:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That being said, it was tempting to go with Kieschnick. Boy does this organization need some power hitting.
The drool factor on power hitting seems to be driving the Kieschnick bus.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 7:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Got to go with Noonan
Plays 2B and has speed as well. Gillaspie’s lack of power, speed or outstanding defensive ability means he’s going to have to hit for a really high average to be an average 3B.
by Change Up on Nov 11, 2008 11:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's a Noonan pick for me, as well.
I’ve got a few questions on Gillaspie and Kieschnick, so far, as far as how polished they are. Kieschnick’s the tougher question. I don’t have Gillaspie’s ceiling as high as some. Beyond that, the rest of the cast has a lot of questions. A lot of toolsy, and a lack of production for many of them, though Pucetas is the exact opposite.
I’m leaning towards Kiesch for the next pick. In Hawaii, he’s flashing a nice touch of power in a league where it’s tough to get power. That said, he’s also a heck of a lot less tired than those who played (at all) in the pro season.
RafRod and Sosa are two guys I can’t see picking for a good long while. RafRod hasn’t gotten nearly the great press Villalona did, and has not a thing to show for himself. The simple fact he’s 16 and a millionaire doesn’t make him a Top 5 (or probably 10) guy for me. Sosa is another guy who flashes great potential, but he still hasn’t done much at High-A between two attempts there (and has been particularly hittable there), is rather suddenly an injury question, and still has serious issues developing his offspeed pitches. I’m holding to my F-Rod-maybe prediction on him for the time being.
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by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2008 1:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Burute, I really disagree with you here, when I usually agree with you wholeheartedly.
Sosa is a top-5 talent and has a very solid track record, but has been derailed by injuries, which knock him down. None of those injuries seem to affect his arm long-term, though. I’m confident that he’ll come back very, very strong in the coming year. His off-speed stuff is much better than you’re giving him credit for – especially his curveball – and he has a devastating fastball. Worst-case for him is Merkin Valdez, which is a very nice commodity to have. That said, he’s definitely taken a step back this year.
RafRod is very, very young. He’s also very, very athletic and toolsy. In the opinion of scouts (e.g. Felipe Alou) he has a great swing and good pitch recognition, and his bat will play as he advances. That, combined with his natural size, strength and speed, his arm and his defensive ability (possibly – albeit a longshot – in CF) make him a great prospect, simply because he can become someone who is very, very rare in baseball. That said, it’ll take us 5-6 years to find that out. But the Giants bet $2.5 million on him developing, which isn’t an insignificant consideration. As for the AnVil press, he was pretty universally seen as a generational-type bat, which generates pub. RafRod can be a very good bat at a much more premium defensive position. That said, he’s also lower down the list here.
I see the arguments for Noonan and Gilaspie and agree that they should probably be among then next 3 players on the list. I don’t see the love for Kieschnick and Crawford – they fell in the draft for a reason. They’re very good gambles to take in the 3rd and 4th round, but people are treating them like they’re legit first-rounders. They’re not. Ish has broken my heart too many times to put high on the list (he seems to do well when he repeats levels). Pucetas is really interesting but limited. And Fairly is a good prospect, but I want to see more out of him.
My vote: Sosa.
Would like to see added: Ehire Adrianza, Thomas Neal, Clayton Tanner
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by tedfordfan on Nov 12, 2008 8:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also think SOME of the Villalona pub was generated by the fact that this was the first such major Dominican signing the Giants had made in such a long time. It indicated an organizational shift in philosophy as well as just being important because of how tremendous of a prospect Angel was.
So yes, clearly Villalona was a better prospect then than RafRod is now. But we can’t just say that because it hasn’t drawn nearly as much pub., Rodriguez doesn’t belong in the top-10 of the prospect list.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is...
…the implication of:
But we can’t just say that because it hasn’t drawn nearly as much pub., Rodriguez doesn’t belong in the top-10 of the prospect list.
…is that he’s then automatically in the Top 10.
I’d rather rate lower based on the unknown rather than higher. It is much more likely in baseball terms that a player gets overrated than underrated in early reports (e.g. Sharlon Schoop). Also, high expectations don’t allow us to see a player in realistic terms. Angel will almost certainly not meet his lofty expectations, and he will be a disappointment because of it. But if we didn’t know about that big bonus or get those early reports (like, oh….Pablo Sandoval?), we’d be ecstatic.
Earn the ranking, don’t get it for nothing.
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by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2008 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think there’s a big difference between BA or Sickels overrating a player like Schoop, and a big league team overrating him to the tune of several million dollars. I think the bonus alone puts him in the top ten, unless you have absolutely no faith in Giants scouting.
by mxmob33 on Nov 12, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Angel got his bonus without even playing for an organized team! Teams do a ton of research, but there’s always the unknown. Look at the Top 10 picks in baseball at the draft every year, and those who do not make it.
Offering big bonuses does increase reliability, but doesn’t make someone an automatic Top Ten. He’s 16, hasn’t done much of anything, but still has people (in one of these prospect threads, at the very least) saying he’s a five-tool prospect. He’s not a sure thing…he has a lot of questions, perhaps even more than Villalona did.
The money shouldn’t define a player’s talent, just a fan’s expectations. But I don’t think the latter should override an unproven former in rankings.
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by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2008 11:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Angel got his bonus without even playing for an organized team — but that makes him a data point in favor of ranking Rodriguez highly, no?
by Evan on Nov 13, 2008 4:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Does it?
Angel has yet to produce on his potential, and has already lived down the third base proclamations.
No doubting the potential. Likelihood to reach it? Still not a sure thing.
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by BruteSentiment on Nov 13, 2008 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure. Two years ago, Angel was what Rodriguez is now: an unknown quantity with a big bonus. Now, even though he hasn’t lived up to some of the hype, he’s still clearly the third- or fourth-best prospect in a strong system.
That doesn’t make a huge difference in how we evaluate RRod, but it does indicate that we need to take raw tools seriously.
by Evan on Nov 13, 2008 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on Sosa
I think he’s pretty overhyped. Other than a great half a season in Augusta he hasn’t shown that much. Sure he’s got a great F/B, but he isn’t all that young and hasn’t demonstrated an ability to pitch successfully at A+ ball
by Change Up on Nov 12, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well you can't really count this years stats
He fucked his knee up and was out most of the year. He got like 60 innings in the whole season.
by boonitez on Nov 12, 2008 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Went with Noonan here, although we’re getting to the point where there’s a lot of close prospects. He just seems to have a little more upside than Gillaspie & it’ll be interesting to see how he does next year.
Interesting to see the popularity of Pucetas, i like him & he’s put up good results, but he seems a little early for me, perhaps more suited to the 10-15 range than the top ten. I’m not sure that he’s distanced himself that much to the other A ball starters (English, Tanner, etc) Other than that, i’d say the other prospects on the poll would fill out my 5-12 spots, with the others afterwards.
Of the testers, the two that i’d go with first would be Barnes & Adrianza. other future testers could be King, Surkamp, Maday, English & Snyder.
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by GiantFan on Nov 12, 2008 3:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Pucetas
Being a pedant with regards to Pucetas, he’s a right handed pitcher (although i did notice it had him as a LHP on baseball cube which is probably it came from)
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by GiantFan on Nov 12, 2008 4:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's listed as a lefty?
How gauche.
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by Lyle on Nov 12, 2008 7:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect sinister motives.
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by EliminateMe on Nov 12, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll switch it up, sorry about that. Both First Inning and Baseball Cube have him as a lefty, everywhere else as a righty.
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by marcello on Nov 12, 2008 8:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Voted Gillaspie.
Noonan’s 1st season was “OK” but it looks like AA could eat him up next year. He’s still a top-10 prospect, just not a top-5…I think.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 5:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You think they’ll put him in AA? That would be a very aggressive promotion for a 19-year-old who didn’t exactly dominate at low-A.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe Baggs had a piece at the end of the year suggesting the FO would promote Noonan to AA. they believe he is the most patient bat in the system
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by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 6:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, maybe, Speedforthewin hit on the reason why just below me. A Baggs post had some of the Giants scouts talking about how Noonan could be “fast tracked” to AA because of his awesome perfomance in low-A.
They did give him the title of best plate discipline or something funny like that, which made me think if they were talking about the right guy. His BB% of 4.5 is concerning and when you advance up the minor league ladder and start facing guys with better control, better breaking balls, etc, I think he could struggle. We’ll see.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And also, “aggressive promotions” aren’t anything new for this team.
See: Giants, 2008.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’s guaranteed to struggle at AA at this point, particularly since he’ll be playing in Dodd.
The “best plate discipline” line is SO out to lunch that I wonder whether it’s some sort of motivational tool — i.e., they know that’s what Noonan needs to focus on, so they talk up what a great skill it is.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 7:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Dodd + Better Pitchers = trouble.
Who knows if it’s a motivational tool or not, it would seem to be a weird one to me if it was. This is the Giants after all, a system that I think might have less emphasis on patience than other systems. And with the current tenor of the team, a promotion to AA for Noonan wouldn’t be out of the norm.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps..
San Jose beginning of the year and AA end of the year once the hitting has heated up there?
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by WalrusMan on Nov 12, 2008 7:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think starting him out in SJ would be great. Who knows if it will happen or not, we’ll see!
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be the logical and preffered approach, which means the Giants won’t do it
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by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 7:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your starting 2B for the ’09 Giants, Nick Noonan!
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 7:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bococked!
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by EliminateMe on Nov 12, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously....
I’d like to write in Scott Barnes. He’d be my number five, but barring a write in candidate, I’d elect to go with Rodriguez, based purely on power potential and age.
But Scott Barnes is my candidate for the annual two level promotion Giant tradition.
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by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 12, 2008 6:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well..
Starting next poll we’ll do write ins, but if you do a write in in the comments or a +1 on that comment you can’t vote for anyone in the poll. if you do, it takes your write in away.
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by WalrusMan on Nov 12, 2008 6:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Went with Sosa. I still believe, and if he puts together a good season, he could be sippin’ on a delicious cup of coffee by September.
I place roughly the same value on Gillaspie and TI. Noonan and Kieschinck belong in the “Show Me” category. Show me a little more, then I’ll believe.
by oldjacket on Nov 12, 2008 7:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sosa’s an interesting pick, and would have been top 5 without the injury and less than good year in A+ this year. In fact, I think I had him #5 or 6 or 7 in my top ten last year. The injury plus the infusion of college talent in draft2008 is going to push him down my list. For me 5-6 is a battle between Gillaspie and TI with the rest falling into the “show me” category.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 7:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
where does Rodriguez start the year, by the way?
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by UnleashTheGore on Nov 12, 2008 7:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Almost certainly in the AZ league
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 12, 2008 8:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rodriguez for #5
I can see why people like Noonan and Gillaspie. There is more known about them and they have been hyped as prospects.
However, Noonan only hit .279/.315/.415/.730 with 98 strikeouts in only 499 AB, roughly 20% strikeouts, which is OK but not good, particularly with little power. And that is only in A-ball. I think people remember the “Utley with less power” description but he doesn’t have Utley’s plus power nor does he play defense all that well at 2B yet, and he was selected in the supplemental 1st round, Utley was a top 15 pick if I remember right. Noonan’s going to have to walk and/or hit a heck of a lot more to be a plus player at 2B at this point. But he’s young and can develop. So can Rafael Rodriguez.
Gillaspie, we don’t have much pro experience to digest, but really, the only thing we are sure he can do is hit, that he’s a hitting machine. Maybe he can get on base a lot too, he does get a lot of walks per strikeout, but that’s in college, and nothing I’ve read on him indicates he’s a walk monster, just a hitter like Bill Mueller. And regarding his defense, say, did I mention that he’s a hitting machine? And steals is not a plus feature for him. However, Rafael Rodriguez has drawn both Vlad Guerrero and Andres Gallaraga comparisions, plus has little (OK, no) pro experience to base things on.
For Rodriguez, just one phrase says it all, “5 Tools.” Well, that and $2.55M, the largest bonus ever given a Latin American hitter or a Giants hitter, for that matter, up to that point (Posey signed afterward). He has raw power coming out of his 6’ 5", 198 pound 16 year old body. Above average speed combined with an above average arm makes him the right future right-fielder for AT&T.
However, the Achilles Heal for this Adonis is that while he has a lot going for him, the one thing (big thing) suspect with him is that some scouts are not sold on his hitting mechanics and his overall feel for hitting. That could be the weak link in an otherwise stellar package for a position player.
Still, obviously, the Giants scouts think otherwise and hence the big bonus, even bigger than for Villalona and as noted, the largest given a Latin American position player ever, though that didn’t do much for either Wily Mo Pena or Joel Guzman in the majors, in fact, Guzman was just released by his team, the Rays.
Five Tools, big bonus, good comparisions, these all made me vote for Rafael Rodriguez 5th, though clearly in vain, as the masses have spoken. As unknown as things are for him, things are basically equally unknown for Noonan (so-so results at A-ball) and Gillaspie (just college ball) plus there is no hint of plus stardom for either (both not even first round picks), while Rodriguez clearly has that chance to reach for the heights.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 12, 2008 10:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
About Noonan’s power — Augusta is one of the hardest parks in baseball in which to hit home runs. With that in mind, 27 doubles, 7 triples, and 9 home runs seems quite good for a 19-year-old middle infielder.
But yeah, the sooner we stop thinking of him as Chase Utley the better.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I believe the last Minor League PF’s I checked, it was even harder to hit HR’s in Augusta than it was in Dodd.
I like RafRod, but not at #5. His hitting mechanics are supposedly awkward and he’s a bit away. Big upside, but a project none-the-less.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do the bad reports of Noonan’s defense come from? Coming out of high school he was ranked the best defensive high school player in So. California, and that was at SS.
I know he was moved off of 2B partially because of questions about his arm strength (also because of playing time with Culberson). But I even questioned that move considering his age and defensive reputation in HS.
by mxmob33 on Nov 12, 2008 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
And to think we crucified Noonan on a cross of Charlie Culberson….
Some of the organizational thinking I just don’t get. You have the possibility of having a SS with decent-ish power, and the first thing you do is shift him to 2B so that a guy who – imho – will never hit a lick in the majors can play SS. Sheesh; give the guy a chance!
I even thought they pulled the trigger on Nate a year too early, defensively. It’s just so rare to find good-hitting-with-decent-or-better-power SS’s and 3B’s, that you need to give these guys a chance to develop a bit. But no, we’d rather draft the David Marouls and Charlie Culbersons of the world.
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by Lyle on Nov 12, 2008 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not going to lambast the organisation too much for moving Noonan, because there’s not really any evidence to say that he was moved to make to room for Culberson. Pretty much every report i read about Noonan after the draft said he was unlikely to stick at SS & was going to be a 2B going forward so there’s a good chance they’d have done that anyway. There’s obviously an argument to say that they should keep players at the most premium position for as long as possible, but i’m just not sure it wouldn’t have been done anyway & wasn’t done to accomodate Culberson
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by GiantFan on Nov 12, 2008 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For Rodriguez, just one phrase says it all, "5 Tools."
5? I’ll give you power (potential), and arm strength, the least important of the five tools. His contact abilities are questionable, and I don’t remember reading anything positive about his defense. And, considering he’s 16 and already plays a corner position, how much speed does he really have?
More like 2.5 tools.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Nov 12, 2008 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how can you rank him, though?
He hasn’t played an inning of pro ball yet. You only know he has 5 tools because of scouting reports of what they saw in the D.R., not because of anything he’s demonstrated as a player yet.
by boonitez on Nov 12, 2008 5:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Flipped a three-sided coin...
Dizzy won. Nick Kieschnick and Danny Noonan came up short.
Gillaspie’s hype certainly played in my decision, as well as
being able to see him play on TV, and his (limited) Sept callup.
He seems the type of hitter that will do well at PacT&T, and the
wood bat experience in the Cape sealed the coin toss.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Nov 12, 2008 10:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Proposal
Rule of thumb going forward:
to stay on the list of choices, a prospect must get some minimal amount of votes – say, at least 3%. There seem to be a lot of choices – maybe we can streamline it a bit.
If enforced, only Fairley and Crawford would be dropped.
Also, do we want to have a maximum # of possible choices? Say 5? or 7?
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 12, 2008 11:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don’t really see the point in dropping people, since they’ll have to be added back in later.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The point
is that too many choices dilutes the voting to the point where you don’t get definitive winners.
Just a thought.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Nov 13, 2008 7:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree. I voted conor this time around, but i certainly value fairley higher than most of the other names on this list, probably because i value plate discipline and the ability to take a walk really highly in a prospect. If we did this, then we’d be eliminating prospects who are maybe similar to but lesser versions of winners because all the people in favor of a given prospects tools/skills would have voted for the slightly more advanced/better guy.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought perhaps..
In the voting thread if you name a tester then the top number of mentions get added and the lowest vote totals get dropped. I’d kind of just keep it at this and add as we go along every 3 or 4 votes though.
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by WalrusMan on Nov 12, 2008 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The architect will be back
with a vengeance!! Vote Rafael Rodruiguez for prosp 6!!
Rafael Rodriguez: He thinks Al Harrington sucks.
by BrianBokake on Nov 12, 2008 11:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
PUCETAS
I picked Pucetas, based on the relatively high probability of reaching his ceiling (albeit lower).
With so much cash tied up in Zito, I think Pucetas’s value as a cheap back of the rotation arm until he hits arbitration is very attractive. Having the future availability of Pucetas softens the blow of potentially trading Sanchez, (who has more ’talent’) to address other needs.
Maybe its not the best way to selcet a ranking position, but I’m sticking with it. Probabiltiy in relation to what’s going on with the big-league club scores big for me….
by aGIANTfan on Nov 12, 2008 11:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
to add...
… I think if Alderson had followed the same path as Pucetas, they wouldn’t be considered too different.
Alderson’s not a particularly high-ceiling guy – I understand that Pucetas is 4 years (?) older, but I don’t think that Alderson will dramatically improve much between what he is now and what he will show during his age 23 season.
Long-term, Alderson obviously has more value as he’s that much younger and has a longer prime, but I think Pucetas is a worthy #5 given his production thus far.
by aGIANTfan on Nov 12, 2008 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This race is tightening! Conor is only down by 3 votes right now.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Now 2! I’m going to have to go register a bunch of fake accounts and vote for Noonan.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tied up now _
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nooooo
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
(ahem, formating fail)
noooo! naaaan!
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The quick and dirty argument for Noonan over Gillaspie:
Gillaspie was drafted #37; Noonan was drafted #32.
Gillaspie had an OPS of 696 last year. Noonan had an OPS of 754, and at a higher level.
Noonan is two years younger.
Noonan has more defensive value.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 12:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Counterpoints for Conor!
>> Gillaspie was drafted #37; Noonan was drafted #32.
Does a separation of 5 picks make much of a difference?
>> Gillaspie had an OPS of 696 last year. Noonan had an OPS of 754, and at a higher level.
Gillaspie also had 90+ AB’s, that’s it. Noonan’s BB% is concerning.
>> Noonan is two years younger.
I’ll give you that, Noonan probably has more room to grow but Gillaspie should move much faster to the majors.
>> Noonan has more defensive value.
Not if he’s staying at 2B he doesn’t. The positional difference between 2B and 3B is nonexistent.
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by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve heard that, about there being no difference between second and third, but I don’t understand it. The average third baseman recently has produced six runs a year more than the average second baseman, which is about the same as the difference between second and short, or between first base and left field. So what’s the deal?
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We aren’t talking about offense, but defense between positions. Or am I reading you wrong?
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My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m talking about overall value. Noonan is (theoretically) more valuable than Gillaspie because the offensive standards at his position are lower.
A player who hits .276/.333/.413 is precisely average among second baseman, but subpar among third baseman. Ergo, if Noonan and Gillaspie both hit .276/.333/.413 and both field their positions equally well, then Noonan is a better player. His bar is lower.
Gillaspie can make up that difference by being a better fielder, but there’s no evidence at this point that he is.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
or he can make up the difference by being a better hitter, which is exactly what i think will happen.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2008 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure. My point is that Noonan begins with a head start in terms of how we read his hitting stats.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I agree that Noonan’s overhead for being a average hitting 2B would be lower than a 3B, but you said “defensively” which doesn’t mean overall, it means on defense. And that’s what I was referring to. By Tango’s positional adjustments — which come from fielding data — 2B and 3B are equals in terms of difficulty to play.
Noonan doesn’t have a defensive advantage over Gillaspie because of his position. If Noonan was a SS, then he would, but not as a 2B.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
besides, Gillespie could end up at 2B, as has been noted a few times. Given lack of anything at 3B, he probably won’t, but he could be, which would render the defensive argument null in the subjective sense and leave it up to the more objective STATS
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By Tango’s positional adjustments — which come from fielding data — 2B and 3B are equals in terms of difficulty to play.
So does that mean that if you move a 2b to 3b, or vice versa, they score the same on UZR or whatever in either position?
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Essentially, yeah, if you take an average defender at 3B he should be able to play 2B at the same ability. Same with 2B to 3B. But, if you tried to move an average 1B to CF, would he be able to handle that position? Probably not.
I’m not explaining it that well, but he recently revised his adjustments and you can read about them here:
And his origianl UZR adjustment study is here:
http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR9903TT.html
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Nov 12, 2008 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura did really well..
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on Nov 12, 2008 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
didn’t mean to stop my point there. What I was going to say was that surprised me since I always thought 3B was easier than 2B.
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on Nov 12, 2008 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly it’s the wine, but I can’t make head or tail of that. “Think of these numbers as how much an average MLB player at those positions would be, compared to an overall average position-neutral fielder named Hubie Raines.” WTF?
If it’s true that third basemen as a group are just as good in the field as second basemen, then a bizarre market inefficiency has been going on for years, because third basemen as a group are much better hitters than second basemen. MLB teams should be moving their third-base prospects to second en masse.
by Evan on Nov 12, 2008 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I voted Ishikawa, because hey, 2500 ABs last year!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Nov 12, 2008 12:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
this is a good way to learn more about our prospects.
I take Nick Noonan a little more seriously now.
by oldjacket on Nov 12, 2008 1:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Gillaspie’s pulled into the lead – by one vote.
It’s Florida 2000 all over again!
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 12, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think it’s pretty clearly time for a runoff. we know who the top two are at this point.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
RUNOFF RUNOFF
make your Noonan v Gillaspie arguments now fellow McCoven!
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Nov 12, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Given the 29% tie, I would say it’s more like the Minnesota Senate Race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Noonan has ties with ACORN. I’m not saying. I’m just saying.
by Grant on Nov 12, 2008 4:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wait. That’s “Can of Corn”. Never mind.
by Grant on Nov 12, 2008 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You have it all wrong. Can of Corn was tied up and covered with acorns.
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 12, 2008 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Time for a Cage Match Smack Down Run-off...
Noonan v. Gillaspie. Let’s see it! I’d put my $ on Gillaspie…
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Nov 12, 2008 4:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Then again, "Noonan!" has a nice, familiar ring to it...
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Nov 12, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As of this evening, the margin in the Alaska Senate race is only 3 votes, so today’s the day for ties, it appears.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Nov 12, 2008 8:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
wow that is close
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Nov 12, 2008 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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