Division races projection recap

Back on March 26th, Grant proposed that we try to predict all six division races in baseball.  Forty-eight people made the attempt, possibly our highest response ever.  Grant promised a prize of $20 from, although I'll let our winner take that up with Grant - he claims to be "worth three figures," so good luck collecting.

Grant proposed a five-point system; five points for the right team in the right finish, decreasing by one point for each place you're off.  Slightly complicated, but at least there were no superdelegates to confuse the matter.  So, for example, if you predicted the NLWest exactly right, you'd get 5 points for each position, 25 points total.  So there were a grand total of 150 points up for grabs.  There were two tiebreaker questions: (1) number of Giants wins, and (2) number of Velez starts.

Before I reveal our top scorers, here's a look at some of the interesting results.  We did have a clear winner, so the tiebreakers weren't necessary.  But they were interesting when viewed as separate contests.

Giants wins: Most of us were in the upper 60's and lower 70's, but only two people got the exact total (72) correct: Kernbergmaradona and satyricrash.  Seven folks only missed by one, with Sky Kalkman, Goofus, Natto, Skaldheim, Poe, and oldjacket guessing 71 and mlb22 guessing 73.  Five others predicted 70, and one predicted 74.

Velez starts: Guesses were pretty well all over the board, as you might imagine.  Lowest guess was Skaldheim's 3; highest was 150 by both Kitspool and wilriv.  Poe had the clearest vision here, accurately predicting 50.  Tying for second place were mlb22 at 46 and Sky Kalkman at 54.  Next closest was Mr_M with 63.

Some of the divisions were harder to predict than others, in particular the ALCentral.  Most of us got the last-place finishes of the Pirates and Orioles.  We figured the Cubs and Brewers were the class of the NLCentral (although most had them swapped).  But the Tigers were the near-universal choice for first place; their last-place finish earned most of us only 1 point.  Conversely, the White Sox were picked as high as third by only a few - most of us had them in last or next-to-last place.

In the NLWest, the division we should know best, no one predicted the exact outcome.  Most of us had the Giants in last place; the Padres self-destruction took us by surprise.  And the Diamondbacks were the most-popular choice for first place.  Only eight of us foresaw the Dodgers winning the division: lyricalkiller, Victor Frankenstein, camwoody, Natto, Mr_M, W8ingForATitle, Lyle, and baetown.

Some people did, however, get entire divisions correct: Victor Frankenstein got the ALWest exact.  Plus, he had the most entertaining team names.  (Vic, there were two team in the NLEast I wasn't sure about, so I calculated your results both ways.)  Mr_M got the NLCentral exact (a harder feat with six teams compared to Vic's four) and only missed the Giants/Pads in the NLWest.  And friar got the ALEast perfect, correctly forecasting the Rays' success.

So, without further ado, here are our top scorers:

124 - Natto

120 - Mr_M, W8ingForATitle

119 - Grant, Skaldheim, Lyle, BaronVCE, Vic Frankenstein, Poe

Most exact predictions:

15 - Natto

12 - Mr_M

11 - Victor Frankenstein, jcb9, Cookyman, Scottsdale

10 - lyricalkiller, Kernbergmaradona, Sky Kalkman, Goofus

And special mention to our lowest scorers:

106 - mlb22

107 - oldjacket, satyricrash, NearestNorwich, friar; (satyricrash claimed to have just returned from the future - but apparently not one in this timeline).

108 - i did my job, boonitez

* * * * * CONGRATULATIONS, NATTO! * * * * * * * * *

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