Projection recap: Brian Wilson
by Lyle on Oct 9, 2008 8:18 AM PDT
49 comments
Brian's actual 2008 stats:
ERA: 4.62 IP: 62.1 K: 67 BB: 28 HRA: 7 Saves: 41
On March 19, Grant asked us for predictions about Brian Wilson's 2008 season. I thought I'd see how we did.
Twenty-one McCovenites gave their predictions; our average prediction was as follows (with Wilson's actual stats in bold):
ERA: 2.90 4.62
IP: 67.1 62.1
K: 65 67
BB: 28 28
Saves: 35 41
Other than ERA, I'd say Brian slightly outperformed our expectations.
Individually, we all guessed much lower on Wilson's ERA; xanthan came the closest with his prediction of 3.70, followed by jasomack with 3.65.
Innings pitched guesses ranged from 45 (EliminateMe) to 78 (jasomack), with rock n jock correctly predicting 62.1. Honorable mention goes to Grant and Scottsdale with 62 each, and groug with 63.
Strikeouts ranged from 83 (daveinexile) to 45 (EliminateMe), with BaronVonCurrentEvents correctly foreseeing 67.
Walk predictions went from a low of 15 (JRPhillips) to a high of 83 (daveinexile). Our only exact prognosticator was redseal with 28 - although note that we all averaged a correct guess of 28. Grant, Little Napolean, and rock n jock all guessed 29.
Home runs allowed varied from a low of 1 (zenbitz) to a high of 8 (daveinexile, EliminateMe, rock n jock). Scottsdale and NeifiChicken both correctly guessed 7.
Not everyone guessed a save chances total, so I'll list only guesses for actual saves; they ranged from a low of 6 (JRPhillips, who didn't think this team would have many save opportunities) to a high of 70 (zenbitz, possibly with tongue firming planted in typing finger??). Baron's 40 and Lyle's 42 came closest to the actual total of 41.
Overall, just eyeballing the guesses, I'd say that Baron, Lyle, redseal, and rock n jock came the closest overall. Again, we all widely underestimated the ERA.
Please feel free to brag away! If anyone finds this at all interesting, let me know - maybe I'll do some more of these as we count down the long, dark days until we hear those four magical words: "Pitchers and catchers report."
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Yeah, the boneheaded outliers cancelled each other out amazingly well.
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Oct 9, 2008 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who’re you calling an outlier, buddy?
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 9, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t out-and-out lie, but you are misguided.
by Moggeee on Oct 9, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’re obviously awesome.
Are you going to do this for all of the CPs, Lyle?
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .
by oldjacket on Oct 9, 2008 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I will if there's enough interest
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Oct 9, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grougthink?
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Oct 9, 2008 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Groudthing.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Giant Whiteout I wouldn't go there if I were you.
by WalrusMan on Oct 9, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick Grant!
Go back and edit all the rest to be exactly the stats they accumulated. You’ll look like a genius!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Giant Whiteout I wouldn't go there if I were you.
by WalrusMan on Oct 9, 2008 9:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Since Zito & Wilson will be roomies this winter
Is there a chance that Brian can learn from Barry, on how to throw an effective change-up in time for ST?
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Oct 9, 2008 9:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If he could learn how to throw Zito’s fastball, that would make a very effective changeup for him.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 9, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Oct 9, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+11111111111111111111
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Oct 9, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilson is, was, and will remain a bum
I love his heater and occasionally his slider, but the man can’t figure out how to keep runners off the bases. Great closers don’t worry about runners because they never get on. Wilson gives up 1-2 runners an inning and a run every other outing. How can you be a closer if you’ve got a 4.50 ERA or a 1.50 WHIP? Don’t give me that Todd Jones or Bob Wickman bullshit, there’s a reason both those teams are trying upgrade at that spot. Were I in some position of authority, I’d be shopping Wilson to the Tigers or Indians or whoever (whomever?) else was short on “closers” and didn’t look at stats aside from Saves very closely.
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Oct 9, 2008 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know that Cleveland doesn’t look at saves specifically when judging closers, and I would imagine Detroit doesn’t either. In fact, I think you have it exactly backwards. The closer role is perfect for your 2nd to 4th best reliever since they’ll be coming in with a lead and no runners on. You want your best relievers available when a shitstorm hits in the late innings.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 9, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this guy.
i like him.
if anyone still thinks Wilson is awesome cuz of his shiny save numbers, check out his TRA. It’s dead middle of the pack average.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Oct 9, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had him in my fantasy league last year
And it would kill me to see him come in with a 2 run lead, and give up a walk and a double then finish off the inning. I admire his ability to block out what just happened, but he makes the same mistakes. Someone needs to teach that guy a change up.
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Oct 9, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, a change up would be nice. Or a de-macho-ism or similar surgical procedure.
But seriously, looking at his TRA+ ratings was really, REALLY eye-opening for me.
http://statcorner.com/leader.php?type=4&year=2008&leag=NL
52 out of 116 in TRA+.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Oct 9, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His tRA+ is 107. That’s good – Cain’s is 109. Wilson got a bit lucky with the saves this year, but he’s still an above average pitcher, who will get a lot better once/if he manages to cut his BB rate.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 9, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that’s the thing… it’s NOT good. It’s 52nd out of 116 NL relievers. It’s barely above average.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Oct 9, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he’s not a finished product. He has the potential to get a lot better.
by Evan on Oct 9, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s more than barely above average. And his FIP and xFIP were also good. He’s pretty good, and has a good chance to be a lot more.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 9, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd grant you "pretty good"
And he also has potential. He’ll have a ridiculously high ceiling if he ever develops another pitch and/or stops exclusively throwing fastballs to great hitters.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Oct 9, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was told there would be no math!
Seriously though, If I’m the Giants I look to move Wilson this off season. I’d rather the spend money in free agency to get a closer (i.e. the $15 or more million a season it will take to land F-Rod from the Angels).
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Oct 9, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last time the Giants did that, it turned out really well, as I recall.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Oct 9, 2008 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This would totally be an awesome idea. And by awesome, I mean “not awesome”.
by Natto on Oct 9, 2008 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're referring to a certain
worthless closer signed as a free agent who’s initials are A.B. then you must be mistaken. I don’t recall anyone like that ever suiting up as a Giant.
Down in Front Meat!
by homerdrew415 on Oct 9, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I admire his ability to block out what just happened, but he makes the same mistakes. Someone needs to teach that guy a change up.
Not only a changeup, but someone needs to clue Wilson in on how to pitch inside effectively. How many times did you see him pound the outside corner over & over again to the same hitter without once ever going inside to prevent the batter from diving over the plate? Changeup or slider…. yes…. but more importantly he needs to keep the batter guessing the location. It’s a lot easier to hit any pitch if you know where it’s going to be.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Oct 9, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We all did quite well...
the ERA was sort of flukishly high, based on his peripherals, his xFIP was 3.60, so we weren’t as off as our projections suggest
by NeifiChicken on Oct 9, 2008 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh,
I seem to have switched my F-rod prediction with the Brian Wilson.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2008 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
2008 Zips projection
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Brian Wilson 26 3.43 4 3 57 0 63.0 57 24 3 28 49
No saves, though – but you can hardly expect a computer program to predict the Boulder-guided brainz of Bruce Bochy
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2008 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So obviously I have to predict at 1 to 1 BB/K ratio for any young arm we want to succeed!
Oh Yes and Velez will definitely not hit the ball out of the infield late in games with runners in scouring position. Not ever again.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on Oct 9, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hahah
I remember that one w/ Velez ;)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Oct 9, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please do more of these posts. Very enjoyable read.
Proud adopter of Jason Jarvis: let's see YOU pass an online music course without cheating!
by Gaahl on Oct 9, 2008 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Red hot Lyle predicted 42 saves in 47 chances.
Actual Figure: 41 of 47.
Hey, Lyle. I’m standing here at Caesar’s Book. Give me a point spread on the Niner loss this weekend.
by Moggeee on Oct 9, 2008 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cellphones are not allowed in the sportbook!
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Oct 9, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
xanthan: I don’t see him striking out 1+ hitter per inning pitched either.
Wilson’s K/IP: 1.08
Ha! Suck it, xanthan!
by Natto on Oct 9, 2008 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually..
Right now xanthan is…..nah….
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Giant Whiteout I wouldn't go there if I were you.
by WalrusMan on Oct 9, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I thought about mentioning that, but didn’t have time while at work to drop that into the recap; should have, though.
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Oct 9, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*makes fun of xanthan while he's not here to defend himself*
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 9, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Confused
Usually I can get a sense about a player by the time he comes up. When Brian Wilson came up, I said I couldn’t tell — that I saw many good signs and many bad ones, somewhat canceling each other out.
Early this season I said I couldn’t tell about Brian. Now the season is over, and I STILL can’t tell.
Early in the season he pitched very well when he pitched every third day or more often — very bad with more than two days’ rest. In July he began to pitch much better on the long-rest end. I haven’t looked to see how that turned out on the season, but when I get time I think I’ll check it out.
I have a theory, by the way, that relief pitchers should be used more regularly and evenly, that it would be good for their arms and good for their ERA’s.
But I still can’t figure out Brian Wilson. :)
by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2008 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The business about his days of rest feels like small-sample-size flukiness to me.
I don’t know that there’s much to figure out, really. He’s a guy with a great fastball but poor command and no particular idea how to pitch. It’s not an unusual combination.
by Evan on Oct 10, 2008 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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