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What Single Change Could Improve Us The Most?

Tiny by giantsrainman on

I took a long hard look at the 2008 pitching results and here is what I found:

AWL = Ahead When Starter Replaced W/L.  BWL = Behind When Starter Replaced W/L.  TWL = Tied when Starter Replaced W/L.  CGWL = Complete Game W/L.  OWL = Overall W/L.

Starter      GS   Innings   Runs   BpInnings   BpRuns   AWL   BWL  TWL  CGWL  OWL

Lincecum 34      227         72          80.2              47        20-4     1-4     0-3      1-1    22-12

Cain          34     217.2       95          91.2              56          8-3     3-14   2-3      1-0    14-20

Zito            32      180        115         102               37        10-0     2-17   1-2        -      13-19

Sanchez   29      158         90            97               56          9-2      4-12   2-0        -      15-14

Other         33     176.2     123        111.1             68         5-2      1-16   2-6      0-1      8-25

Total        162     959.1     495        482.2           264      52-11  11-63  7-14    2-2    72-90

Please note that I counted April 2nd (rain delay game) as a Lincecum start not a Valdez start and April 26th (oblique Injury game) as a Hennessey start not a Correia start. 

To me the area we can make the biggest improvement in is obvious.  Replace our 5th starter (Other) with a second #1 (CC) to combine with Lincecum and we should immediately improve to an above .500 team!  We should be able to get an Overall Win Loss Record of 21-12 in these 33 starts if it was CC making these starts instead of the clowns we used.  This would be 13 more wins which would improve our record to 85-77 which would put us one game ahead of the Dodgers and thus NL West Champs!        

       

                      

 

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I don't know Rainman

we have a few issues:

1) Zito’s contract
2) What CC is likely going to demand
3) A poor offense which we likely will not improve much due to 1 and 2 above.

I don’t know; perhaps they can get Zito to defer some of his money or perhaps they can get a big home town discount on CC. Maybe all the young hitters will mesh and we’ll have a much better offense; I just think that counting on those things to happen is wishful thinking at best. We won a ton of one run games this year, and I would imagine that would be hard to duplicate.

by joe t on Oct 6, 2008 9:45 PM PDT   0 recs

My Analysis Is Not Dependent On Any More Offense Or An Improved Bullpen

All that is required is to replace the collection of clowns we used as 5th starters with CC. Any improvement in the offense or the bullpen should just improve us that much more and I do think there is good reason to expect some improvement without adding any new bodies to the mix.

We with regards to the cost of CC I have shown elsewhere that we can afford him if we do not waste our dollars on adding offense or bullpen help.I

by giantsrainman on Oct 6, 2008 9:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One Run Games

The scary thing about the Giants’ season is that they were a very good 31-21 in 1 run games. The season would have been a complete disaster with a 10 game swing in the opposite direction. I don’t have any stats to back this up, but it seems difficult to predict the giants will keep up this trend, and those additional losses in 1 run games will need to also be compensated. I doubt that CC alone is enough to overcome this.

by Fresburg on Oct 7, 2008 8:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Money issues aside – for the moment -if going for an all strong arm team our defense has to get better. Much, Much better. And I don’t like the odds of that happening in time for ’09

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Oct 7, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Deferrment

I’d like it if Zito deferred some of his money forever.

Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.

by thehavenot on Oct 7, 2008 12:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

issues, huh?

cc may be willing to take a pay cut to play close his home in valejo. and if lincecum can win with this crappy offense, then cc can too.

aaand maybe if cain wore a 4 leaf clover necklace he would get some runs. also if sanchez and zito pitched with an ounce of consistency they’d get more wins. sooo
lincecum – 20 wins
cc – 20 wins
cain – 20 wins
sanchez – 15 wins
zito 15 wins
total – 90 wins, and that’s just the rotation. suck it LA

by serrapadre716 on Oct 8, 2008 4:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Heh

I wish

I see the future, and it is Pablo

by CB30 on Oct 8, 2008 7:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What do we have to lose? We probably go another 30 years without winning and still will have a more recent championship than the cubs.

And seeing that I’m a Registered Dietitian the more overweight people we have the more job security I have…(this theroy only works if the Giant’s hire me to counsel Bengie, Pablo,and the rest).

Proud father of Eric Surcamp!

by The Thrill on Oct 6, 2008 10:21 PM PDT   0 recs

*We probably could go another 30 years*

Proud father of Eric Surcamp!

by The Thrill on Oct 6, 2008 10:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Most revealing to me

your TWL column.

AWL and BWL come out about as expected, but TWL should be somewhere around .500. Instead we’re sitting at a cool .333. Bad bullpen. Bad.

by Viliphied on Oct 6, 2008 11:08 PM PDT   0 recs

I Too See This Problem

But, if you fix it all you pick up is 3 to 4 wins. Replace the current collection of clowns used as our 5th starter with CC and you pick up 13 wins.

by giantsrainman on Oct 6, 2008 11:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Our current collection of fifth starter clowns

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 7, 2008 9:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

“I really underestimated the creepiness”

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 7, 2008 9:13 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

lol etrade

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Oct 7, 2008 9:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

FP's Hand :-)

 Too Obscure ?

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Oct 7, 2008 1:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I got it!

I think.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 7, 2008 2:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s a Firefly reference, right?

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Oct 7, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nah

Arrested Development

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 7, 2008 10:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

he speaks the truth.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Oct 7, 2008 12:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Why should it be?

If we’re losing the games, many could probably be due to the offense. If the starter leaves and it’s tied after 5, relievers go 4 innings giving up a run (2.25 ERA, damn good), but the offense fails to score, then it’s the offenses fault. Sure, if the starters give up 5 runs after the starter goes 7 or something it’s the bullpens fault, but I’d like to see how those losses occured, whether it could be attributed to the offense or bullpen.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 6:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wonder if 11-63 is really about where we should be on BWL. I’d love to see a breakdown on how that compares to other teams, and even more of a breakdown on games where we were behind by 1-2 runs as opposed to games where we were behind by 4-5 (Zito starts!). There’s a bad offense hiding in these stats as well — well, not really hiding all that convincingly I guess.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Oct 7, 2008 9:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

...

I think if you look at those stats the most apparent thing is that we rarely come back from behind…which wasn’t exactly a head-scratcher. Our focus needs to be on upgrading the offense with a legitimate bat. If we are going to spend some serious dough this off-season it should be for a true #4 bat.

But if you want me to bite on bringin’ CC home, then here is the only way I can see us doing it without crippling our future: structure his contract the opposite of Zito’s. 7 yrs/$140M, give him $24M for the first 3 yrs, $18M for the next 3, and $14M for the 7th year.

This would work because the bullpen arms and young bats are all relatively cheap for the next 3+ years.

I think I pulled my swagger muscle...

by BawLa on Oct 6, 2008 11:35 PM PDT   0 recs

That would also benefit us..

because he would then be easier to trade later in his contract.

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Oct 7, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I See This Problem Too

But to me it is no where near a gib of a problem as the fact that we only had 63 leads to try and protect while we had 74 defects to try and overcome. Again, replace the clowns we used as 5th starters with CC and this will be reversed. This one action will help alot more then adding a non elite but true middle of the order bat which is all we could hope to do if we focused our dollars on offense rather then CC.

by giantsrainman on Oct 6, 2008 11:48 PM PDT   0 recs

maybe if matt cain just starts winning games…

Brad Hennessey: the next Kevin Correia
Kevin Correia: the next Brad Hennessey

by stealth snail on Oct 7, 2008 12:54 AM PDT   0 recs

LOSING PITCHER

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 6:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Breakfast

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 7, 2008 12:55 AM PDT   0 recs

Yea..

That sounds really good. Probably McDonalds for me…

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 6:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I really like McDonalds breakfast for some reason.

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 7, 2008 8:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Jack In The Box Meaty Breakfast Burrito FTW !!

Eggs, Cheese, Bacon, Sausage wrapped up in tortilla goodness.

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Oct 7, 2008 8:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No Jack In the Box here FTL :-(

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 8:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s right, you’re in the Land Of Cheese. My Bad !!

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Oct 7, 2008 2:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

$3.26

1 Sausage McMuffin w/egg
2 apple pies
1 parfait

That’s all I allow McDonald’s to poison me with , and for the dough not spent it ain’t that bad.

“C’mon , everybody likes parfaits…”

"Ain't got a hope in Hell - that's my belief." - Bon Scott

by victor frankenstein on Oct 7, 2008 6:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I've gotten to like..

Their Southern chicken biscuit thingy. I hate the sandwhich but like the biscuit thing. I think it’s the pickles and butter on the sandwhich.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 8:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

which which which….?

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 8:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Pickles+ Chicken= Loss

I see the future, and it is Pablo

by CB30 on Oct 7, 2008 2:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Their breakfast items are better than their other food, I’ll admit. Better tasting, that is.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 8, 2008 9:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I hate these random double posts. :/

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 8, 2008 10:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Their breakfast items are better than their other food, I’ll admit. Better tasting, that is.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 8, 2008 9:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Two

You admit it twice!

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 8, 2008 10:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So nice you have to say it twice.

by chilibean_3 on Oct 8, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Their breakfast items are better than their other food, I’ll admit. Better tasting, that is.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 8, 2008 8:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ended up..

A gas station muffin. Oh well.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 8:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Unleaded or premium?

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 7, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Was it buttered?

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 7, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

sugared.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 5:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

whole wheat bagel slathered in peanut butter, coffee.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Oct 7, 2008 8:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Peanut butter coffee?

This flavored coffee nonsense has gone WAY too far.

Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.

by EliminateMe on Oct 7, 2008 11:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i would totally drink that

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Oct 7, 2008 11:34 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There’s a coffee cart on the UCSD campus that has an Iced Reese’s Peanut Butter Mocha. BEST THING EVER

Adopted Son: Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts

by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 7, 2008 2:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I used to work near a cafe that sold iced chocolate banana espresso drinks. Holy crap. So good.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 8, 2008 9:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nah, I’m pretty sure he meant that he slathered the bagel with peanut butter, and then slathered it with coffee.

by rotorueter on Oct 7, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Mmmm…soggy.

Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.

by EliminateMe on Oct 7, 2008 3:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I had toasted oats with a little honey.

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 7, 2008 8:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I had an all Trader Joe's Breakfast

Honey Crunch & Oats, with dried wild blueberries, dried tart Montmorency cherries, and milk.

Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.

by marklar on Oct 7, 2008 9:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

For the healthy ones among us...

May I recommend…

Photobucket

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Oct 7, 2008 2:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kashi stuff is great.

I prefer

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Oct 8, 2008 8:03 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm kinda partial to:

Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Oct 7, 2008 3:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I can't tell if those are donuts or bagels

When I was a young whipper-snapper I was all about the chocolate old-fashioned. Alas, I am no longer a young whipper-snapper.

Greetings, Marklar! I am Marklar! This is Marklar.

by marklar on Oct 7, 2008 5:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Oct 7, 2008 2:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Pretty Much

without all of the HFCS :-)

My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.

by nvsfg on Oct 7, 2008 3:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn’t mean for this to be a hijack, but it certainly was a delcious one.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 7, 2008 4:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dammit, and now I'm hungry.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Oct 7, 2008 5:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Doesn’t the fact that the team had essentially the same record in Cain starts and Zito starts highlight the problem with this sort of analysis?

by Evan on Oct 7, 2008 8:32 AM PDT   0 recs

This

The chart essentially states that Sanchez, Cain, and Zito are roughly the same. Fail.

by rotorueter on Oct 7, 2008 9:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

STATZ DOENT LIE

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Oct 7, 2008 9:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Looking at their ERA and IP, I would guess that the real differnce between Sabathia and Correia/Misch/Hennessey/Palmer is about 7-8 wins.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 7, 2008 1:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Correia

I wouldn’t say his goose is cooked yet. He never really recovered from his oblique injury; lets see what he can do in Spring Training. However a replacement for Zito would do a lot to help the team. Sabathia would be worth 7-8 wins above Zito.

by Change Up on Oct 7, 2008 1:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Zito isn’t going anywhere.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 7, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Zito

I was thinking maybe demoting him to the bullpen. Guess that’s never going to happen either, though.

by Change Up on Oct 7, 2008 4:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs