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Freddy vs. Nate

Did anyone listen to THE LAST BRIAN SABEAN SHOW OF THE YEAR!!1 yesterday? I was almost crying myself to sleep last night knowing I wouldn't be able to hear
Ralph ask moronic 5 minute questions to Sabean on Thursdays until April of '09.

Anyway, one of Ralph's moronic questions struck me first as a no-brainer, then made me think a little more, and I thought I'd see what the McCoven thought.  In asking about Nate's role on the team next year, Ralph flat out said that he likes Nate better than Freddy.  My initial reaction was ,"WTF, Freddy was awesome for a whole year in replacing the greatest hitter of all time".  However, I know many of you think Freddy's year was more of an abboration than anything, and that he'd come back down to somewhere in the area of .270/.320/.400.  I also know many of you aren't real high on Nate's potential either, but Ralph seemed to think he was good for 20+ HRs.

I'm still going with Freddy as a better long-term player, but I think given the chance to play full-time, Nate may prove to have a pretty similar batting line to Freddy, albeit probably a lower OBP b/c of the whole not-walking-much thing.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I love Freddy....

…but if he’s going up against the Juggernate, he better be wearing pads, knaaamean?

Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.

by EliminateMe on Oct 3, 2008 2:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Lewis vs. Ellison?
We know who won that.

by chilibean_3 on Oct 3, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

YES

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 3, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What does this have anything to do with Julian Tavarez?

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Oct 3, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lucky best reply.

by rotorueter on Oct 3, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gary?

Wasn’t it the butter knife?

by dogdays on Oct 3, 2008 3:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Oct 3, 2008 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zito’s pet name for Ralph

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Oct 3, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

who's Gary?

I don’t see anything about Gary.

IT’S FRIDAY, LEAVE ME ALONE!

Hasn’t been one of my better days…

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Oct 3, 2008 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I must say, Nate’s ability to make consistent contact intrigues me. Combine that with his age (three years younger than Freddie) and I think Nate has a higher ceiling. Freddie still takes some strange routes in the outfield as well, and I’ve been impressed with Nate in limited time.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Oct 3, 2008 3:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

However, I know many of you think Freddy’s year was more of an abboration than anything, and that he’d come back down to somewhere in the area of .270/.320/.400.

His .367 BABIP is probably unsustainable, but I’m not convinced that it’s all luck – he’s had high BABIP’s throughout his entire career:

2007, MLB/Fresno: .338.
2006, Fresno: .339.
2005, Norwich: .349.
2004**, San Jose: .385.
2003, Hagerstown: .339.
2002, Salem-Keizer: .422 (only 58 games).

Suddenly .367 doesn’t look that crazy, does it? Now, I know that it’s easier to have a high BABIP in the minors than in the majors, and, again, I don’t expect him to keep his current Ichiro-esque BABIP, but I don’t think that it’s unreasonable to expect him to maintain a high BABIP, maybe around .330-.340, and hit something like .270/.340/.420. Not great, but reasonable, and he’ll make up for some of it with his above average defense and good speed.

I also know many of you aren’t real high on Nate’s potential either, but Gary seemed to think he was good for 20+ HRs.

Gary Radnich? Don’t really care what he thinks. Nate’s best case is better than Lewis, but there’s a pretty good chance that he’s just a AAAA player. Anyway, I don’t really see any reason to play one over the other – I’d rather just trade Winn for a good prospect, or, if we don’t get any good offers, go with Goofus’s 4-man-OF.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 3, 2008 3:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah

**FirstInning only has BABIP’s from 2005 and beyond, so for 2002-2004 I just did (H-HR) / (AB-HR-SO).

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 3, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Lewis is the kind of hitter that will maintain a higher than average BABIP although not neccessarily as high as it has been. Not because he has an inherant skill, but because he’s a selective hitter, as was discussed previously. He just doesn’t hit as many bad balls as other hitters, which means his BABIP is higher, but he strikes out looking more than average. If he hit a ground ball instead of striking out looking then his BABIP would look far more in-line with the average. And that’s one of the problems with BABIP, it assumes everyone to be the same and doesn’t take other things into account

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on Oct 4, 2008 1:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds logical. I looked up the top 20 players in BB% this year, and their career BABIP’s:

Adam Dunn -.290
Jack Cust – .336
Chipper Jones – .323
Albert Pujols – .323
Carlos Pena – .299
Milton Bradley – .326
Pat Burrell – .304
B.J. Upton – .359 (only 1554 career PA’s)
Jim Thome – .327
Lance Berkman – .326
Gregor Blanco – .324
Mark Teixeira – .312
Nick Markakis – .334
Jason Giambi – .306
Nick Swisher – .279
Russell Martin – .314
Kosuke Fukudome – .307
Troy Glaus – .285
Ken Griffey Jr. – .295
Manny Ramirez – .344

Average BABIP: .316 (league average is around .300).

This proves nothing, of course. And I really should have looked at BABIP – expected BABIP. Oh well.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 4, 2008 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But now that I think about it

Fred really isn’t that selective – he only seems like that to us because we got used to all the hackers that came out of our farm system. Lewis had a BB% of 9.8% – 70th out of 147 qualifying batters. He swung at 43.0% of the pitches he got, which makes him the 53rd most selective hitter out of 145 qualifying. He’s selective, but he ain’t no Bobby Abreu.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 4, 2008 3:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hitters who K more

MUST have higher than “normal” BABIPs, higher than “normal” OC BAs, higher than “normal” on contact SLGs, otherwise they wouldn’t be able to have careers in MLB.

Hitters who don’t make contact as often, HAVE to hit the ball harder when they do make contact.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Oct 4, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nitpick,

but BABIP doesn’t assume everyone to be the same. It’s just a stat.

It’s the hardline “league average BABIP is around 300, everyone over that is "lucky” “analysts” " who assume everyone to be the same.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Oct 4, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That analysis only works for pitchers

for batters, you need to look at the expected BABIP from their line drive %.

The exBABiP for Lewis’s 18.4 LD% just happens to be .304, so the .300 argument happens to be fairly close.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Oct 4, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That analysis doesn't really work for pitchers either.

And that exBABIP analysis isn’t some hard and fast rule.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Oct 6, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lewis

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 3, 2008 3:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

lewis

I do like Freddie, and I think he could have a career as a decent outfielder. However, he’s what, 27? Isn’t that the age generally thought of as the prime year, or is that just for pitchers? Of course, some people say he’s a late developer etc, but I just wonder how his already average stats will hold up as he ages, BABIP comes down slightly, speed decreases, etc.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Oct 3, 2008 3:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Barry's prime was like 36

I fully expect the same from Freddy

STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.

by UnleashTheGore on Oct 3, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Freddy a lot more

He’s got good power, he hits for decent average, he has a ton of speed, he’s a decent fielder, and he can take walks, which I like even if he strikes out looking a ton. I know Nate has a lot of potential with the bat, but I hate how he has no plate discipline. He’s also not as good of a fielder as Freddy and he’s nowhere near as fast. I still think he’ll be good, but my totally not-biasing love for Freddy makes me think he’ll be better than Nate.

by boonitez on Oct 3, 2008 7:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He doesn’t really have good power. I’ve always believed that e should have good power, but he doesn’t really.

I agree with most of your thoughts on Lewis, though. I don’t know if I like either one long-term more than the other. Nate might have a higher ceiling and Fred might regress. Or neither of those things might be true. I’m not sure right now.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Fred doesn’t have consistant power, but we’ve all seen what he can do to a poorly located ball. Was it 2 splash hits this year? Those definitely aint cheap ones. And he also drove a couple out to Bonds territory out by triples alley. If he hadn’t had that bunion bothering him the whole year, he could’ve/should’ve finished with about 12-15 homers, which is quite nice for a first year as a starter, especially for a left handed hitter in our park.

by boonitez on Oct 3, 2008 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The difference in discipline is negligible to me. Yeah, Schierholtz doesn’t take walks. But he doesn’t strike out a ton either. “But Lewis will mature and improve his discipline.” What, and Schierholtz can’t prove/improve his power in the Majors? They’re pretty similar, and I would like to keep them both, batting 1 and 2, or 2 and 3.

"Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic."

by giants9107 on Oct 3, 2008 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn't say i wanted to lose either one

And was that a hypothetical quote? Cause i said no such thing!! But I just think Freddy could and hopefully will be a productive LF and could be a good leadoff man if we left him there, or a decent 3 or 5 hitter because of his pop. I think Schierholtz could be good too; I just think Lewis will be better for some reason.

by boonitez on Oct 3, 2008 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

That quote wasn’t of you, but I heard it muttered around here.

"Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic."

by giants9107 on Oct 4, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Schierholtz doesn’t strike out a ton but he still strikes out a fair amount, for how infrequently he walks.

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 4, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Freddie vs. Nate is actually irrelevant, because if you listened to the show Sabean made it pretty clear that Freddie is the left fielder. He didn’t seem high on Nate at all. Sabean basically said that Nate won’t hit for power at ATT and basically only uses the middle of the field.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Oct 4, 2008 6:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

now that I’m thinking about it, does anyone think that Nate refusing to play winter ball might be why Sabean is putting him down lately?? During the show and in that interview with the media he said “he hasn’t seen enough of Nate.” Is it possible that Nate’s refusal to play winter ball is going to be held against him next year, even if he clearly shows in spring training that he should be the starter??

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Oct 4, 2008 6:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When did Nate refuse to play winter ball?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 4, 2008 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baggarly had the story about two or three weeks ago. They asked him to play winter ball, and he told them he wanted to rest the injured shoulder this winter. He also said something about how all the travel and playing between the Olympics, minors and majors had pretty much exhausted him. I kind of understand their frustration, but they’re really doing the organization a disservice if they hold it against him. If he proves to be better than Freddie and/or Randy he should be playing.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Oct 4, 2008 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am all for a young guy doing all he can to improve. But if his shoulder is still bothering him now would be a very good time to deal with it. If the front office is going to get their special order silk Under Roos in a bunch over it they need an enema to clear the mind some.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Oct 4, 2008 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nate over Fred, long-term

I think Lewis was slightly lucky this year. That’s not to say he has no baseball skills – on the 2008 Giants he was easily one of our best players. Still, faint praise. Given a chance to acclimate himself to AT&T, I think Nate would do just fine, maybe settling in around .285 with 20 HRs, 90 RBI (assuming he bats 3-6), and not nearly enough walks for most of you. Had he done that in SF this year, he, too, would have been one of the best players on the Giants. And, again, that’s only faint praise. He’s not Mickey Mantle, he’s not Dave Parker, he’s not Barry Bonds. However he is a youngish, cheap, under-our-control, productive outfielder. And the last one of those we produced was…….?? Jack Clark?

However, I doubt SF management sees Nate’s value, and I fully expect him to be included in this winter’s Next Horrible Trade®.

your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid

by Lyle on Oct 4, 2008 8:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

However he is a youngish, cheap, under-our-control, productive outfielder. And the last one of those we produced was…….?? Jack Clark? Fred Lewis?

Fixed it.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 4, 2008 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was looking back, historically. Assuming Fred maintains, then he would be the next one after Jack Clark. I expect he will, but I don’t yet have him in that category.

your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid

by Lyle on Oct 6, 2008 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

However he is a youngish, cheap, under-our-control, productive outfielder. And the last one of those we produced was…

Messy Marvin!

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Oct 4, 2008 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A trade involving Nate Schierholtz? But where are the FanPosts???

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Oct 4, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Nate can put up similar stats to Lewis.
I think both Nate and Lewis have similar power, but Nate’s a little stronger.
Lewis is faster, but Nate is still fast.
Lewis is a better fielder, but Nate is still competent.
Lewis will walk more, but Nate will make contact more.
Overall, I think Lewis is more of a .270-.280 AVG hitter, whereas Nate is more of a .290-.300 AVG hitter. Lewis’s power numbers are likely going to stick around 10-14 HR, whereas Nate’s will be around 12-16 HR. Nate will probably show more RBI capabilities than Fred ever will.

by AmorVincitOmnia on Oct 4, 2008 6:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

in other words we need both of them

Brad Hennessey: the next Kevin Correia
Kevin Correia: the next Brad Hennessey

by stealth snail on Oct 5, 2008 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

IN A NO HOLDS BARRED CAGE MATCH TO THE DEATH!

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 5, 2008 3:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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