Offseason Predictions for the San Francisco Giants: The Pitching Staff
More from the State of the Sabean address:
A: It could be, especially with Noah having the second surgery. Hopefully that’s the last thing to get him ready for the spring, but I think you have to put him off to the side. After what’s happened the last couple years moving (minor league) pitchers, without naming names, we’ve got some guys who are pretty darn good who could be up here in a hurry next year. We might have more depth than we think. We don’t have the experience you’d want, but from a talent standpoint, we should have some choices.
…and…
A: We’ll look heavily in the market for relief help. Whether we decide to do that with a starting pitcher remains to be seen, because I think the price is going to be exorbitant.
Let’s run this through the Wild-Speculatron 3200 and try to translate what Sabean was implying:
- "With Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and, ugh, Barry Zito in the fold for next year, the rotation could still use a fifth starter. Kevin Correia fumbled his opportunity, Brad Hennessey is, has been, and always will be just filler in any decent pitching staff, and Lowry isn’t someone to count on until he throws a pitch in a regular-season game.
But, cripes, nothing there suggests that we should pay $130M for CC Sabathia, $60M for Derek Lowe, or even $30M for Pedro Martinez. We’ll figure something out. We don’t want to do what the Mariners did last year with Carlos Silva, and we don’t want to tie up 40% of the payroll in two pitchers, especially if one isn’t pitching well." - "Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson might be in the majors next year. Crazy, I know, but I’m pretty confident that they could learn at the major-league level without getting slapped around."
- "The bullpen this year was a lonely fortnight at sea, fraught with peril, isolation and scurvy. The free agent market for relievers is a moderately well maintained brothel in a port of call. So we’re going to spend our money. Oh, you’d better believe we’re going to spend our money. We might not like what we end up contracting, but we’ll at least feel good for a short time."
The offseason pitching priority is on the bullpen. Fair enough. Brian Wilson isn’t going anywhere, and Sergio Romo certainly pitched himself onto the staff. Alex Hinshaw will probably be back, which leaves three or four spots open for some of these contenders:
Tyler Walker
Keiichi Yabu
Billy Sadler
Geno Espeneli
Merkin Valdez
Brad Hennessey
Kevin Correia
My predictions: Still here, gone, gone, still here, minors, hurt, gone, fifth starter. I’d say the Giants are going to sign just one reliever, but it isn’t going to be a closer like Kerry Wood or Francisco Rodriguez. Like, duh. But that doesn’t leave a whole bunch of options. The full list of free agents is here, and here’s my best guess as what the staff will look like next year:
2. Lincecum
3. Cain
4. Sanchez
5. Correia
CL – Wilson
SU – A surprisingly expensive Juan Cruz
SU – Taschner
MR – Romo
MR – Sadler
MR – Hinshaw
Mop-up – Other
Bonus prediction: Correia is replaced by Tim Alderson in June.
Your turn. Give your best guess at what the Giants will do, not what you want them to do.
0 recs |
101
comments
Comments
Other Timmy
Alderson will have that Catcher in the Rye book report to complete by June, as well as get a date for the Prom. Pitching in the bigs might be too much on his plate.
by biff pocoroba on Oct 3, 2008 12:52 PM PDT 0 recs
"Good " Sabean: Does a 2 years , or 1 & and option, 11.5 MM to Jamie Moyer. He takes up 180+ innings in the bottom of the rotation saving the pen at lest 50 innings over this years staff.
Bad “Normal” Sabean: He does a 4 year 40 MM contract to Fuentes. Yes his arm falls off in the first 18 months.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on Oct 3, 2008 12:56 PM PDT 0 recs
Additional benefit of Moyer is that he could teach Zito how to get bitches out with an 82 MPH fastball.
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on
Oct 3, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
up
0 recs
/ nods nods
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 1:25 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Additional benefit of Moyer is that he could teach Zito how to get bitches pitchers out with an 82 MPH fastball.
Anagram of "Giants pitcher Matt Cain" = TRAGIC MAN, ISN'T PATHETIC
by Stuttering John Tamargo on
Oct 3, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
up
0 recs
moyer is a good option, i doubt Phils let him walk though. Bumgarner/Alderson are on the Matt Cain plan of 3 years of minor league ball before they even snifs the majors
by cazzuno on
Oct 3, 2008 3:19 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Mad Bum/Timmy Two
I don’t think it’s a given that Mad Bum and Timmy Two will spend three years in the minors. It is unusual for a high school draftee to pitch in High A with just four or five innings of professional experience (Alderson), and Mad Bum flat-out tore it up in Low A. I would guess both will start out next season in AA, which is one level higher than Pablo Sandoval began this season.
Some feel that Mad Bum will level out as he enters the higher levels. I would expect the same thing to happen with Timmy Two, possibly to a greater degree. But if they can stay healthy, I think both will become solid starters — probably much better in Mad Bum’s case.
Timmy Two relies heavily on his curve ball, but it is a good one (10 to 4, less snap than Lincecum — surprise, surprise — but a big break). His fastball is a bit pedestrian (usually topping at 92), so in order to become a major league pitcher I suspect he needs to work heavily on his change up. Developing a good change would likely make him a good starter one day. Not developing it would likely make him a set up man. Alderson has the poise to pitch in the majors right now. It is merely a case of his stuff (third pitch) needing to catch up.
Mad Bum probably just needs to refine his pitches and remain healthy.
by sharksrog on
Oct 3, 2008 11:42 PM PDT
up
0 recs
when he was drafted
it was said that Timmy Two had three plus pitches. as i recall they said the fastball had bite and some movement, the changeup was advanced and the curve was good. The plus-plus command should help Timmy Two at any level and I think he’s a much better bet to succeed at higher levels
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Oct 5, 2008 1:57 PM PDT
up
0 recs
One plus plus one plus doesn't equall three plusses
Timmy Two’s change up isn’t advanced — or at least he doesn’t throw it much. Neither, according to the SJ Giants employee who sat behind me with the radar gun.
He said Tim rarely broke 92 with his fastball and that he seldom threw his change. In the playoff opener which I saw, he threw it twice early — once at 76 mph and once at 82 — and then seemed to abandon it.
To be honest, I liked the looks of the change. Tim didn’t seem to tip it off, and especially at 76 he had a great speed differential between it and his fastball. But it appears either that he doesn’t think he needs it now or that he lacks confidence in the pitch. And clearly its speed seems to vary quite a bit.
I don’t see any reason why he can’t harness the pitch, and hopefully that is precisely what he will be doing this winter. With a good change up, he would probably be major-league ready right now. Without it, I think he would be likely to have trouble with lefty hitters.
I don’t think his fastball is all that much of a plus pitch. But he curve certainly is. It doesn’t have the snap Tim Lincecum’s hook has, but it has a very nice 10-to-4 break. And he controls it well enough that he seems to throw it close to 40% of the time.
I merely think his curve will play far better against right-handed batters than lefties and that he needs to develop confidence in his change up to succeed against major league left-handed hitters.
Timmy Two is more of a crafty pitcher than a power pitcher. His poise, control and curve all seem to be plus or plus plus. Right now he doesn’t use his change up as a plus pitch, and his fastball may be a plus pitch, but certainly nowhere near plus plus.
Timmy Two is young enough that he might add a couple of mph to the heater, which would be a bonus — particularly since it would add even more speed differentiation between the fastball and his change up.
by sharksrog on
Oct 11, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
up
0 recs
Moyer
100 wins after his 40th birthday. Incredible.
by biff pocoroba on
Oct 3, 2008 4:56 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Anything but Pedro ’09
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Oct 3, 2008 12:59 PM PDT 0 recs
I’d take Juan Cruz all day long. I’d take anybody over Walker.
by fwoty oz on Oct 3, 2008 1:13 PM PDT 0 recs
I hear He Who Starts Large Tire Fires this guy might be availible.
What do you mean by I am grumpy and mean today?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Until now I had no idea his middle name is “German”.
That said, “anybody” suggests I’m talking about humans and Armando is definitely not a people.
by fwoty oz on
Oct 3, 2008 1:31 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I didn’t know that either, but it reminds me of a kid I went to elementary school with – his name was Berlin Germany.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 1:33 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Mando!!!

Oh, throw me a bone here. I never get to post this anymore.
Anagram of "Giants pitcher Matt Cain" = TRAGIC MAN, ISN'T PATHETIC
by Stuttering John Tamargo on
Oct 3, 2008 1:32 PM PDT
up
1 recs
* golf claps*
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 1:33 PM PDT
up
0 recs
His arms need some tan
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Oct 3, 2008 1:42 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Five years
I have liked Juan ever since he pitched for the Cubs. Billy Beane doesn’t make lots of mistakes, but I certainly felt he made one when he traded Juan to the Diamondbacks.
by sharksrog on
Oct 3, 2008 11:44 PM PDT
up
0 recs
For mop up – Matos?
I’ve kind of lost whatever faith I once had in Taschner. Unfortunately Espineli also sucks so we don’t have any other good internal lefty reliever options beyond Hinshaw.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 3, 2008 1:23 PM PDT 0 recs
And if Valdez is healthy, that’s a huge plus, needless to say.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Yeah, why not Matos? People forget that he was the youngest pitcher on the team, other than the terrible Matt Cain.
by rotorueter on
Oct 3, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
up
0 recs
MORE LIKE NOT-TOS AMIRITE
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on
Oct 3, 2008 3:00 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Nate Schierholtz and a couple of minor-league pitchers for Scott Downs and John McDonald.
by Evan on Oct 3, 2008 1:26 PM PDT 0 recs
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romo traded for someone similar but older and not as good.
by Evan on
Oct 3, 2008 1:32 PM PDT
up
0 recs
There are only five FA relievers who 1) had ERAs under the league average 2) are less than 33 years old and 3) aren’t closers.
Jeremy Affeldt CIN
Joe Beimel LAD
Juan Cruz ARZ
Will Ohman ATL
Dennys Reyes MIN
Bit of an underwhelming list, isn’t it. But I guess at least one of these guys’ll be a Giant next year.
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Oct 3, 2008 1:32 PM PDT 0 recs
It would be better if he were born in Oman.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 1:35 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Oh oh is there a thread here? ( See above ^ )
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 1:35 PM PDT
up
0 recs
And when he screws up, we can type LOLhman. Won’t that be fun??
by rotorueter on
Oct 3, 2008 1:36 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Oh, man, I hate puns!
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 1:37 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Yeah, you did it before me
I did it anyway. So there!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Oct 3, 2008 2:12 PM PDT
up
0 recs
It will be like Being Bill Murray in Ground Hog’s Day. But in a town with no decent looking chicks!
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 1:38 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Being Bill Murray?
You’re referring to the long-awaited sequel to Being John Malkovich, right?
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 3, 2008 2:23 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Oh man, I can’t believe it!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Oct 3, 2008 2:12 PM PDT
up
0 recs
From looking at the FA list, obviously...
Starters
Tim Lincecum
Barry Zito
Brett Tomko
Casey Fossum
Julian Tavarez
Relievers
CL- Salomon Torres
SU- Steve Kline
SU- LaTroy Hawkins
RP- Alan Embree
RP- Jay Witasick
RP- Scott Eyre
LR- Aaron Fultz
Sanchez is traded for Phillips who is in turn traded for a couple CF/2B prospects with speed…
Cain is traded for Fielder, unfortunately Sabes thought Cecil still had some game left…
Correia and the pen get demoted to SJ to “grow as a group”
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Oct 3, 2008 1:58 PM PDT 0 recs
I'd take Eyre back
Not at any kind of price the Cubbies paid him, but I’d take him for $1 million or so. I always liked the guy. Obviously no one everyone else.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 3, 2008 2:13 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Obviously no one everyone else.
Well, yeah. Obviously.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on
Oct 3, 2008 3:01 PM PDT
up
0 recs
lol
damnit, it’s Friday. Leave me alone!
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 3, 2008 3:41 PM PDT
up
0 recs
*throws self down stairs*
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 3, 2008 2:23 PM PDT
up
0 recs
and hopefully you’ll get treatment for that crack addiction.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on
Oct 3, 2008 8:59 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Whee! The new ads are in!
Free IQ Test Information
What is your IQ score? Take a free IQ test and find out if you have a genius IQ. Average IQ scores are around 100. IQ testing measures your proficiency in thinking abstractly. Our Phd IQ test will quickly tell you your IQ score. Take our IQ test now.
My genius IQ rules out Fossum because he has that ex – Blank taint to him.
"Ain't got a hope in Hell - that's my belief." - Bon Scott
by victor frankenstein on
Oct 4, 2008 8:12 AM PDT
up
0 recs
I don’t really see any reason to get rid of Walker. He’s a decent reliever, and shouldn’t be expensive.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 3, 2008 2:20 PM PDT 0 recs
Walker
as a 6th inning guy, ok.
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on
Oct 3, 2008 2:22 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I don't really trust him with the 6th anymore
As a 5th inning guy, maybe.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 3, 2008 2:39 PM PDT
up
0 recs
he’s really a starter in the 164th game.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on
Oct 3, 2008 9:00 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I seem him in the BP role
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on
Oct 4, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
up
0 recs
At this point, Walker has fallen into the Do Not Want To See Him Ever Again category. Too many past fuck-ups for me not to hate him. That’s not necessarily rational, but there you go.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 2:40 PM PDT
up
0 recs
He’s got a career ERA+ of 96. He’s replacement level garbage with a propensity for giving up runs in terrible situations.
by fwoty oz on
Oct 3, 2008 2:42 PM PDT
up
0 recs
His peripherals were good this year. He’s nothing special, but I don’t see us finding seven guys who can do better than him without wasting too much money.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 3, 2008 3:52 PM PDT
up
0 recs
IAWTC
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .
by oldjacket on
Oct 3, 2008 3:55 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I was at a game vs. the Dodgers this past season. I was standing in the back of the lower level. Tyler Walker came in extra innings and was pitching to Jeff Kent. I turned my back to the field because I didn’t want to see Walker throw. I heard the crack of the bat and knew what Kent had just done, homered. I didn’t see it but knew Walker yacked it up.
Walker is not a decent reliever as one person said above. He’s horrible and I agree the the Do Not Want To See Him Ever Again. And if I ever heard someone retort with the “He’s a local player” I’ll scream.
A gamer does NOT wear a foam finger, a dork does.
by SFGuy on
Oct 3, 2008 4:39 PM PDT
up
0 recs
The guy has never had an ERA below 4.23, and he’s going to be 33 next year. Pass.
by rotorueter on
Oct 3, 2008 2:42 PM PDT
up
0 recs
^^^^^ GROUPTHINK ^^^^
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on
Oct 3, 2008 3:01 PM PDT
up
0 recs
...GROPETHINK?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 3:05 PM PDT
up
0 recs
walker will be brought back and cut like all the other washed up middle relievers that we used to have (Kline, Christansen)
by cazzuno on
Oct 3, 2008 3:16 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I thought there had to be a signed extension in there some were.
Maybe that’s just with position players now days.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 3:22 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Brandon Lyon
…could be had cheaply after imploding this year. ’06 & ’07 were good years for him.
by Scottsdale on Oct 3, 2008 2:21 PM PDT 0 recs
Sabean said last year that he was hitting the reliever market and when he saw what setup men were getting he said forget about. it. With some of the biggest spending teams in the league having bullpen problems this year, I see the same thing happening. Scott Eyre wouldn’t surprise me as the only addition.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on Oct 3, 2008 2:21 PM PDT 0 recs
I watched Freddy Garcia pitch the last game of the season for Detroit. I think he might have some innings left. I wouldn’t give much money, but it seems like a low risk, high reward possibility for the 5th starter competition.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Oct 3, 2008 2:30 PM PDT 0 recs
I’m ok with this as long as not much money is involved and they make him earn the 5th starter spot.
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
by WilliamVanLandingham on
Oct 3, 2008 3:00 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Brad Penny?
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .
by oldjacket on Oct 3, 2008 3:40 PM PDT 0 recs
They may take a run at
Beimel or Cruz for the bullpen slot, and either may cost them a little. They could even add Eyre for a little more experience. Based on that, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go into next season with a low-cost option for the 5th slot, like Hennessey. There would be nothing wrong with a bullpen of
Wilson
Romo
Hinshaw
Cruz/Beimel
Valdez
Eyre
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
by Buck Henry on Oct 3, 2008 3:52 PM PDT 0 recs
I would be pretty happy with that
Maybe throw in a dash of Correia for long relief of Zito’s patented 3 IP, 9 H, 6 BB, 6 ER games
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 3, 2008 4:53 PM PDT
up
0 recs
ah yes the old Pain Sponge role for Coriea.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 4, 2008 8:40 AM PDT
up
0 recs
I Think The Giants Will Pass On All Four Of Their Arbitration Eligable Pitchers
If you don’t know who these are they are Brad Hennessey who made $1.6M last year in his first year of arbitration, Kevin Correia who made $1.075M last year in his first year of arbitration, Tyler Walker who made $0.75M last year in his first year of arbitration, and Jack Tashner who will be eligable for arbitration for the first time this year. I look for the Giants to non-tendor all four of these guys.
On the other hand I look for the Giants to bring back Keiichi Yabu who inspite of being 40 years old is still a year away from being arbitration eligable and therefore can just be renewed for something less then a $0.5M.
I see the Giants signing two relievers on the free agent market to in essense replace Walker and Tashner. My top canidates would be Juan Cruz and Will Ohman.
Therefore I see the following bullpen:
Brian Wilson – Closer
Juan Cruz – Veteran Righty SetUp
Sergio Romo- Young Righty SetUp
Will Ohman – Veteran Lefty SetUp
Alex Hindshaw – Young Lefty SetUp
Keiichi Yabu – Long Relief
Open Competion For Last Spot In The Bullpen
Finally, As I have said before I expect (and hope) the Giants will make a play for CC but I do not expect them to get him. If they don’t then they will not be spending money on a free agent starter.
Therefore I see the following rotation:
Tim Lincecum – #1
Matt Cain – #2
Barry Zito – #3
Jonathan Sanchez – #4
Open Competation For Last Spot In Rotation
by giantsrainman on Oct 3, 2008 5:01 PM PDT 0 recs
P.S.
It would be ideal if Lowry and Valdez fully recover and win the two last spots on the pitching staff.
by giantsrainman on
Oct 3, 2008 5:09 PM PDT
up
0 recs
this
Until the wheels fall off. Unless this is what it looks like with them on.
by periqueblend on
Oct 3, 2008 6:12 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Of course, it’d be ideal. It’d also be ideal for Rowand to hit 50 homers next year.
by Natto on
Oct 3, 2008 10:49 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Why keep Yabu and not Correia?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 3, 2008 5:14 PM PDT
up
0 recs


