Bill James and the 2009 San Francisco Giants, Part II

Overall I think this is too optimistic. I do not see Zito anywhere near the numbers Bill projects.

I do agree with the slight regression from Lincecum. I just can’t see another season like ’08 from Tim.

Especially Zito. I think he’s pretty right on with Cain, Lincecum and Sanchez, although I doubt lincecum goes 240

Especially for Sanchez and Zito. I just don’t see both dropping their ERAs by over a point.

I also think optimistic. I’d be pretty damn enthused if that’s how the season turned out for our starters, especially for Sanchez. As for our bullpen, I’m not even sure he’s got that many of the players right. 57 innings from Hennessey? And where’s Romo?

According to Bill James, the Giants are ready to contend NOW!

Especially for Tyler Walker.

These look wrong. I guess a bunch of Zito’s walks are magically going to turn into strikeouts. That’s how it works. It’s science.

Then saw the 240 IP. Last time I think James made a projection like this it was for Rich Hill. Better not go down the same road imo.

I guess I just don’t see as much regression in Lincecum as everyone else does. whatever he loses in luck, he’ll make up for in experience/knowledge of the league, etc. He’s still young and has not peaked yet. Not sure how you’d quantify that, but he won’t have an ERA over 3.00.

James predicts us to have a record of 69-70.

Although I guess if CC comes in and goes 21-2…

You can’t really judge Lincecums’ era prediction without seeing how he predicts the the other ERA leaders. I actually think 3.00 is pretty close, and actually better than he will get from the other projection systems.

Let us not forget his xFIP was 3.37.

I’d say track 7 is a better indication of the fanbase at this point.

MATT CAIN SUCKS

we’ll win at least 46 next year!!

Lincecum will go 32-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Bill James is a clear Dodger fan.

One of the oddest things, though, is that the walk rates of the pitchers prone to walking people don’t change much, yet Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, and Barry Zito are projected to allow far fewer runs.

It’s not that odd, really, at least if you buy the DIPS theory. Sanchez, Wilson, and Zito all had ERA’s that were higher than their peripharles/fielding independant stats. For example:

Sanchez: ERA – 5.01, FIP – 4.09.
Wilson: ERA – 4.62, FIP – 3.93.
Zito: ERA – 5.15, FIP – 4.72.

I think the system is mainly expecting their ERA’s to regress, more than it expects actual improvment, though it could be a combination of the two.

Waaaaay too optimistic.

I can’t see Lincecum losing as many as nine games.

Won’t even be on the team next year (hopefully).

The Bill James pitching predictions aren’t even produced by Bill James (and probably not endorsed either).

He doesn’t think that pitching can be predicted but his partner in crime, er, business, er, co-author, John Dewan, asked if Bill would mind him giving it a shot, so he’s been putting the pitching predictions into the Bill James handbook every year now and I assume this is the continuation of that.

How can they not have predictions for Hinshaw and Romo?!? They even have Pat Misch and Billy Sadler, and neither are sure things for the bullpen in 2009.

Also, given my comment above, it’s surprising they think Zito is going to return to his former form prior to the Giants, based on mechanical calculations.

In any case, I think Zito is at least on the right track, he was striking out batters like it was 2003-4, something he hasn’t done, even for the A’s, since then. There were also multi-game sequences that he did this year that he had not done since that period. The key, obviously, to him doing well in 2009 is him keeping this high K-rate going for a full season. If he can, he can get his ERA back in the mid-3 range he had with the A’s; if not, it could be another sad season for him.

At l;east 5 of them are mathematically impossible given the innings pitched

Tim’s def. going to have an even better season in 09 then he did in 08. i smell a lot of Giant victories next year :]