McCovey Chronicles: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Around SBN: MLB Hot Stove: blogging the rumors, trades, signings Bar-right-arrows

spread the word

Bill James and the 2009 San Francisco Giants

Grant_tiny by Grant on

Bill James was a senator from Illinois, who initially rose to fame through his debates with Stephen Douglass. After inventing the cotton gin, James focused on his "New Deal" to save the American economy. Some economists claim that the "New Deal" actually prolonged the Great Depression. James responded that those economists were "the Joe Morgans of the economic world." James closed out the 20th-century by inventing statistics, pine tar, and Tim Lincecum. Bill James is truly an American hero.

And he also has a yearly handbook that features predictions for the upcoming season. Fun stuff. I was lucky enough to get a sneak peak at the predictions, and I’ve compiled the numbers for the Giants’ hitters here. I’ll save the pitchers for tomorrow. I included some of the recently outrighted or released Giants, just for yuks.

At first, I thought that I received these in a clandestine manner, and that I would be all edgy and renegadey by posting them early, but it turns out that we were given permission as long as we published links to information on how to buy the book. Bummer. I wanted to stick it to the man, loosely defined in this instance as an independent publishing house. It’s a good early-offseason book, I promise.

Some thoughts on the projections:

  • John Bowker: League-average hitter? It’s sad how much that excites me, but a full-season of Bowker would be one of the team’s best chances at the elusive 20-homer player. It isn’t as if he’ll have any meaningful role next season, but the modestly optimistic projection surprised me.
  • It’s a bear market for Giants middle infielders. October surprise! James’s methods don’t buy the highish-OBP of Manny Burriss, and they project some empty batting averages for both Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez.
  • The outfield seems to project in reverse order of expectations. Rowand is projected to have the best stats, followed by Lewis, with Winn bringing up the year. Nate Schierholtz is projected to be better than all of them, which really surprises me.
  • Pablo Sandoval is an average-dependent beast. I’ll take it. When I initially isolated the Giants on a single spreadsheet, Sandoval had "##" for his RBI total. I’m not an Excel wiz, so I stared at it for a couple of minutes. As it turns out, he was the only Giants player projected to have a triple-digit RBI total, and it melted the spreadsheet.
  • I used Albert Pujols’s projection for Travis Denker. I figured that was the easiest way of doing it.
  • The best current lineup, just based on these projections:

    Fred Lewis – LF
    Aaron Rowand – CF
    Travis Ishikawa – 1B
    Pablo Sandoval – 3B
    Nate Schierholtz – RF
    Bengie Molina – C
    Eugenio Velez – 2B
    Emmanuel Burriss – SS

    Yick.

Interesting projections, they are. Have at them.

0 recs | Comment 95 comments | Digg!

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

First!

Can we move Pablo to RF and Nate to 3B?

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Oct 22, 2008 12:34 PM PDT   0 recs

QUICK!

TRADE PABLO FOR 592 SINGLE A PROSPECTS!

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 12:36 PM PDT   0 recs

since when did the Brewers move Prince Fielder to Single-A?

I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 12:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He said 592 prospects, not a 592 pound prospect.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’d be a way wittier poster if I knew how to read.

I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 1:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hooked on Phonics worked for me.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

‘n hook’d on ebonix wurk’d fur me too

I think I pulled my swagger muscle...

by BawLa on Oct 22, 2008 1:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I love the Denker projection.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 12:38 PM PDT   0 recs

It nearly gave me a heart attack, as I read the list before finishing the post.

by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Post?

I just click on the orange words and scroll down to the comments.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 1:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Same here

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Oct 22, 2008 1:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

how sad is it that that line from Ishikawa would be our best performance by a first baseman in like 200 years

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 12:39 PM PDT   0 recs

slight hyperbole

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

THE NAME OF THE SITE IS A TRIBUTE TO A FRST BASEMEN FROM LESS THAN 200 YEARS AGO

by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 12:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And who has not played for 29 seasons. Just saying.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.

by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmm make that 28 seasons.

Which if you take away the 8 years The Thrill played here is still about as long as we got to see Willie Mac play.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.

by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Benzinger Blues?

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 23, 2008 5:49 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dan Peltier Chronicles?

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Phillips Files!

Anagram of "Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum" = TENSE, CLIMACTIC, TRIUMPHING

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Oct 22, 2008 1:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Francisco Melendez Follies

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Damon Minor Lines

Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.

by EliminateMe on Oct 22, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Snow Job

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 3:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Benzingermination

"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."

by i did my job on Oct 22, 2008 4:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Desi (Wilson) Designations

Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??

by tobias on Oct 22, 2008 4:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Spilman Spirit

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 6:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like that one

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Damon Minor Leagues

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

MCCOVEY STATUE = EVIL DINOSAUR!

put there by satan to test our unfaith

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Oct 22, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A couple Random thoughts. Hey they are what I do best!

A First baseman with over 800 OPS? Are you sure the spread sheet isn’t in fected or something?

Only .1 of BA and .25 of OBP separate Roberts from Ochoa? Say it aint so MR. Roberts. They realy need to get a Gold watch ready for Mr. Roberts.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.

by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:47 PM PDT   0 recs

well, he only had Ishi doing that in limited at bats, i don’t know how he’d project him over 500+ PA’s

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You realize..

.100 of BA and .250 of OBP are the differences between great and bad players.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Don’t go bring logic into this! Spoil sport.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.

by daveinexile on Oct 24, 2008 9:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It is nice to see that the young guys are our best hitters.

If Ishikawa is that productive, how could he get so few at bats? Makes me think Pablo should play as much 3B as possible, barring a 3B acquisition.

by out machine on Oct 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT   0 recs

Because he's productive against RHP

And terrible against LHP, at least in the minors. But I’d be willing to give him a couple of months trying to play regularly, with Sandoval at 3B.

But my thinking is that the Giants are keeping 3B open so that Frandsen has a place to slide to should Velez beat him out for 2B and he is doing well (much like the 2008 season until he blew out his tendon).

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

1.More love for Steve Holm. If we can get anything of value for Molina, we need to do it, and have Holm and Sandoval do the catching.

2. He kinda likes Ishikawa and Schierholtz. Cool. Hopefully they get to play.

3. Velez outhits Frandsen? Rowand outhits Lewis? Interesting.

4. I know it is irrational, but I really want to believe that Burriss can put up a 700 OPS next year.

by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 1:06 PM PDT   0 recs

The market for Molina should be decent. I think he’ll be traded.

Charlie Hayes ate my homework

by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Oct 22, 2008 2:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I was kind of looking through some STATS..

Steve Holm seems like he could be a pretty interesting catcher. I’d never really studied his STATS.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

/xanthan screams silently in despair/

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 24, 2008 6:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

can you make that list sortable for me?

j/k

Fairley odd parent to Wendell

by WTF on Oct 22, 2008 1:14 PM PDT   0 recs

If you add up all the runs scored

It projects the Giants’ offense to score about 200 more runs than we did this year.

Doesn’t that seem wildly optimistic?

by sfmaynard on Oct 22, 2008 1:16 PM PDT   0 recs

fwiw, Bill James’s projections are always pretty optimistic.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I was going to note this earlier but forgot. I’m not sure what his projection system is or how it works, but they always seem to be very optimistic.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 1:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

have you checked out

THT’s projections? They put out their first batch last year and they were just a teeny bit less accurate than PECOTA and THT actually did the best predicting hitters.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Linear Regression!

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

More correctly,

the projections released under his name are always wildly optimistic about young players. Not surprising that Schierholtz projects so well.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Oct 22, 2008 2:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Too many games

Lewis, Nate, Winn, and Rowand all have 140 games or more, and Roberts has 91 – how is that going to work? Same thing with our corner IF – Bowker, Aurilia, Sandoval, and Ishikawa seem to have too many games between them.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 1:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

no one

tries to predict usage pattern. It’s just some weird average based on past seasons I would guess. In a projection, the rate states are all that is important, since playing time is dependent on all sorts of stuff.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know, I’m just offering this as a possible explanation for all the runs scored.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 2:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

oh

you can’t do that.

The number of PAs doesn’t add up to a correct season.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 3:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Shhhhh

We felt good for a second.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t know too much about this Bill James feller. How “accurate” are his projections usually? I say “accurate” just because I know it is a projection but is he ever way way off? Those predictions make me hopeful.

Adopted son of in limbo Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts

by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 22, 2008 1:28 PM PDT   0 recs

I don't know about James

but zips is reasonably accurate. Most of these are reasonably accurate IN THE AGGREGATE. Which means, for any given player they can miss wildly, but over many players they are pretty close. It is an open question whether the fancy systems are better than “Marcel the Monkey” (take the last 3 years and do a weighted average). For the young guys it’s going depend alot on how you translate their minor league stats.

Zips for example, was dead on for Rowand, but whiffed horribly on Durham.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, and to be fair to ZiPS, I can see why a lot of systems might have written off Durham. He was playing a position in which you don’t see a lot of 35+ year old players playing and in the previous year, he totally crashed.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Needz Moar Fielder

I see the future, and it is Pablo

by CB30 on Oct 22, 2008 1:43 PM PDT   0 recs

God, we are gonna suck again next year. This sucks. When is Angel Villalona going to turn 21?

by Mrbasepaul on Oct 22, 2008 1:44 PM PDT   0 recs

You Must Of Ignored The Numbers

and just looked at the names. Bill James’ projections say that that offense would be pretty damm good.

by giantsrainman on Oct 22, 2008 9:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Denker

:(

I like that Holm will have the best OBP for the Giants.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | art | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Oct 22, 2008 1:54 PM PDT   0 recs

Clearly he should be our leadoff hitter. Scientific fact!

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 23, 2008 5:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Little Known Fact:

When I have no clue how to put together my Baseball Mogul team (read: Wow I have some amazing players, how should i do the batting order?) I do this, taking the best player for the category in the order listed:

5. Highest OBP
4. Highest OBP
2. Highest OBP
1. Highest OPS
3. Highest SLG
6. Highest OPS
7. Highest OPS
8. Highest OPS

I had Marcus Jensen leading off for pretty much the entire season. (Marcus Jensen for the .900+ OPS FTW!

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I not only

caught the Denker fake out (read the spread sheet first)
BUT realized that you used Pujols’ projection instead.

That Sandoval projection is BALLZ.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:17 PM PDT   0 recs

If Sandoval can hit .320

like he predicts I’d be stoked. I think I’d be thrilled if he can even muster .300 over 2009 though.

Most seem fairly reasonable, Pablo and Nate seem like the only stretches (although Nate’s isn’t as big a stretch)

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:20 PM PDT   0 recs

Agree that the Pablo and Nate projections really stood out.

I’m really hoping that Nate and Kevin Frandsen get a change to play
a whole season (~500 ABs).

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 2:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I love watching Pablo hit. I don’t remember anyone except Vlad and maybe Kirby Puckett be able to consistently square up a ball while swinging at anything within a football field of home plate. I’ve read quite a few stories about Yogi Berra being the same way, so naturally I expect Pablo to play in about 3000 World Series games, start to speak in odd grammatical constructs, and then go on to have have a cartoon named after him.

by tyrannoman on Oct 22, 2008 3:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He’ll win ten World Series as a Giants player, and then win the NL pennant as a Giants manager.

by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Aflac! < /spanishAccent>

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Es la cosa que tu necesitas tener. Si no tengalo, este es porque tu necesitalo.

(this is me trying to remember my college Spanish, please correct)

by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

que?

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yo la tengo

…finally

They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long

by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

RE: Best Lineup

Is that a lineup that you put together, or is that the lineup that would score the most runs?

Baseball Musings has a ‘program’ where you input a lineup through name, obp, and slg and it provides you with the optimal lineup with how many runs they would score.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding the insides of baseball.

by bbdbrandon on Oct 22, 2008 3:19 PM PDT   0 recs

For me

Its both

I see the future, and it is Pablo

by CB30 on Oct 22, 2008 3:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs