Bill James and the 2009 San Francisco Giants
by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 12:29 PM PDT
95 comments
Bill James was a senator from Illinois, who initially rose to fame through his debates with Stephen Douglass. After inventing the cotton gin, James focused on his "New Deal" to save the American economy. Some economists claim that the "New Deal" actually prolonged the Great Depression. James responded that those economists were "the Joe Morgans of the economic world." James closed out the 20th-century by inventing statistics, pine tar, and Tim Lincecum. Bill James is truly an American hero.
And he also has a yearly handbook that features predictions for the upcoming season. Fun stuff. I was lucky enough to get a sneak peak at the predictions, and I’ve compiled the numbers for the Giants’ hitters here. I’ll save the pitchers for tomorrow. I included some of the recently outrighted or released Giants, just for yuks.
At first, I thought that I received these in a clandestine manner, and that I would be all edgy and renegadey by posting them early, but it turns out that we were given permission as long as we published links to information on how to buy the book. Bummer. I wanted to stick it to the man, loosely defined in this instance as an independent publishing house. It’s a good early-offseason book, I promise.
Some thoughts on the projections:
- John Bowker: League-average hitter? It’s sad how much that excites me, but a full-season of Bowker would be one of the team’s best chances at the elusive 20-homer player. It isn’t as if he’ll have any meaningful role next season, but the modestly optimistic projection surprised me.
- It’s a bear market for Giants middle infielders. October surprise! James’s methods don’t buy the highish-OBP of Manny Burriss, and they project some empty batting averages for both Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez.
- The outfield seems to project in reverse order of expectations. Rowand is projected to have the best stats, followed by Lewis, with Winn bringing up the year. Nate Schierholtz is projected to be better than all of them, which really surprises me.
- Pablo Sandoval is an average-dependent beast. I’ll take it. When I initially isolated the Giants on a single spreadsheet, Sandoval had "##" for his RBI total. I’m not an Excel wiz, so I stared at it for a couple of minutes. As it turns out, he was the only Giants player projected to have a triple-digit RBI total, and it melted the spreadsheet.
- I used Albert Pujols’s projection for Travis Denker. I figured that was the easiest way of doing it.
- The best current lineup, just based on these projections:
Fred Lewis – LF
Aaron Rowand – CF
Travis Ishikawa – 1B
Pablo Sandoval – 3B
Nate Schierholtz – RF
Bengie Molina – C
Eugenio Velez – 2B
Emmanuel Burriss – SS
Yick.
Interesting projections, they are. Have at them.
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First!
Can we move Pablo to RF and Nate to 3B?
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Oct 22, 2008 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
QUICK!
TRADE PABLO FOR 592 SINGLE A PROSPECTS!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 12:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
since when did the Brewers move Prince Fielder to Single-A?
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said 592 prospects, not a 592 pound prospect.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be a way wittier poster if I knew how to read.
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooked on Phonics worked for me.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
‘n hook’d on ebonix wurk’d fur me too
I think I pulled my swagger muscle...
by BawLa on Oct 22, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the Denker projection.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 12:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It nearly gave me a heart attack, as I read the list before finishing the post.
by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how sad is it that that line from Ishikawa would be our best performance by a first baseman in like 200 years
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 12:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
slight hyperbole
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THE NAME OF THE SITE IS A TRIBUTE TO A FRST BASEMEN FROM LESS THAN 200 YEARS AGO
by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And who has not played for 29 seasons. Just saying.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm make that 28 seasons.
Which if you take away the 8 years The Thrill played here is still about as long as we got to see Willie Mac play.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Benzinger Blues?
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Oct 23, 2008 5:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Peltier Chronicles?
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Phillips Files!
Anagram of "Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum" = TENSE, CLIMACTIC, TRIUMPHING
by Stuttering John Tamargo on Oct 22, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Francisco Melendez Follies
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damon Minor Lines
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 22, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Benzingermination
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Oct 22, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desi (Wilson) Designations
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
by tobias on Oct 22, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spilman Spirit
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Oct 22, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like that one
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damon Minor Leagues
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MCCOVEY STATUE = EVIL DINOSAUR!
put there by satan to test our unfaith
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Oct 22, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple Random thoughts. Hey they are what I do best!
A First baseman with over 800 OPS? Are you sure the spread sheet isn’t in fected or something?
Only .1 of BA and .25 of OBP separate Roberts from Ochoa? Say it aint so MR. Roberts. They realy need to get a Gold watch ready for Mr. Roberts.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
well, he only had Ishi doing that in limited at bats, i don’t know how he’d project him over 500+ PA’s
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You realize..
.100 of BA and .250 of OBP are the differences between great and bad players.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t go bring logic into this! Spoil sport.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 24, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is nice to see that the young guys are our best hitters.
If Ishikawa is that productive, how could he get so few at bats? Makes me think Pablo should play as much 3B as possible, barring a 3B acquisition.
by out machine on Oct 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he's productive against RHP
And terrible against LHP, at least in the minors. But I’d be willing to give him a couple of months trying to play regularly, with Sandoval at 3B.
But my thinking is that the Giants are keeping 3B open so that Frandsen has a place to slide to should Velez beat him out for 2B and he is doing well (much like the 2008 season until he blew out his tendon).
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1.More love for Steve Holm. If we can get anything of value for Molina, we need to do it, and have Holm and Sandoval do the catching.
2. He kinda likes Ishikawa and Schierholtz. Cool. Hopefully they get to play.
3. Velez outhits Frandsen? Rowand outhits Lewis? Interesting.
4. I know it is irrational, but I really want to believe that Burriss can put up a 700 OPS next year.
by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The market for Molina should be decent. I think he’ll be traded.
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Oct 22, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was kind of looking through some STATS..
Steve Holm seems like he could be a pretty interesting catcher. I’d never really studied his STATS.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
/xanthan screams silently in despair/
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Oct 24, 2008 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
can you make that list sortable for me?
j/k
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Oct 22, 2008 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If you add up all the runs scored
It projects the Giants’ offense to score about 200 more runs than we did this year.
Doesn’t that seem wildly optimistic?
by sfmaynard on Oct 22, 2008 1:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
fwiw, Bill James’s projections are always pretty optimistic.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was going to note this earlier but forgot. I’m not sure what his projection system is or how it works, but they always seem to be very optimistic.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
have you checked out
THT’s projections? They put out their first batch last year and they were just a teeny bit less accurate than PECOTA and THT actually did the best predicting hitters.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Linear Regression!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More correctly,
the projections released under his name are always wildly optimistic about young players. Not surprising that Schierholtz projects so well.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Oct 22, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many games
Lewis, Nate, Winn, and Rowand all have 140 games or more, and Roberts has 91 – how is that going to work? Same thing with our corner IF – Bowker, Aurilia, Sandoval, and Ishikawa seem to have too many games between them.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no one
tries to predict usage pattern. It’s just some weird average based on past seasons I would guess. In a projection, the rate states are all that is important, since playing time is dependent on all sorts of stuff.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, I’m just offering this as a possible explanation for all the runs scored.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know too much about this Bill James feller. How “accurate” are his projections usually? I say “accurate” just because I know it is a projection but is he ever way way off? Those predictions make me hopeful.
Adopted son of in limbo Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 22, 2008 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about James
but zips is reasonably accurate. Most of these are reasonably accurate IN THE AGGREGATE. Which means, for any given player they can miss wildly, but over many players they are pretty close. It is an open question whether the fancy systems are better than “Marcel the Monkey” (take the last 3 years and do a weighted average). For the young guys it’s going depend alot on how you translate their minor league stats.
Zips for example, was dead on for Rowand, but whiffed horribly on Durham.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and to be fair to ZiPS, I can see why a lot of systems might have written off Durham. He was playing a position in which you don’t see a lot of 35+ year old players playing and in the previous year, he totally crashed.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Needz Moar Fielder
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Oct 22, 2008 1:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
God, we are gonna suck again next year. This sucks. When is Angel Villalona going to turn 21?
by Mrbasepaul on Oct 22, 2008 1:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You Must Of Ignored The Numbers
and just looked at the names. Bill James’ projections say that that offense would be pretty damm good.
by giantsrainman on Oct 22, 2008 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denker
:(
I like that Holm will have the best OBP for the Giants.
by Natto on Oct 22, 2008 1:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Clearly he should be our leadoff hitter. Scientific fact!
Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.
by Lyle on Oct 23, 2008 5:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Little Known Fact:
When I have no clue how to put together my Baseball Mogul team (read: Wow I have some amazing players, how should i do the batting order?) I do this, taking the best player for the category in the order listed:
5. Highest OBP
4. Highest OBP
2. Highest OBP
1. Highest OPS
3. Highest SLG
6. Highest OPS
7. Highest OPS
8. Highest OPS
I had Marcus Jensen leading off for pretty much the entire season. (Marcus Jensen for the .900+ OPS FTW!
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I not only
caught the Denker fake out (read the spread sheet first)
BUT realized that you used Pujols’ projection instead.
That Sandoval projection is BALLZ.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If Sandoval can hit .320
like he predicts I’d be stoked. I think I’d be thrilled if he can even muster .300 over 2009 though.
Most seem fairly reasonable, Pablo and Nate seem like the only stretches (although Nate’s isn’t as big a stretch)
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree that the Pablo and Nate projections really stood out.
I’m really hoping that Nate and Kevin Frandsen get a change to play
a whole season (~500 ABs).
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love watching Pablo hit. I don’t remember anyone except Vlad and maybe Kirby Puckett be able to consistently square up a ball while swinging at anything within a football field of home plate. I’ve read quite a few stories about Yogi Berra being the same way, so naturally I expect Pablo to play in about 3000 World Series games, start to speak in odd grammatical constructs, and then go on to have have a cartoon named after him.
by tyrannoman on Oct 22, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’ll win ten World Series as a Giants player, and then win the NL pennant as a Giants manager.
by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aflac! < /spanishAccent>
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Es la cosa que tu necesitas tener. Si no tengalo, este es porque tu necesitalo.
(this is me trying to remember my college Spanish, please correct)
by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
que?
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yo la tengo
…finally
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Oct 22, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Best Lineup
Is that a lineup that you put together, or is that the lineup that would score the most runs?
Baseball Musings has a ‘program’ where you input a lineup through name, obp, and slg and it provides you with the optimal lineup with how many runs they would score.
by bbdbrandon on Oct 22, 2008 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So we should be looking to trade Winn and Molina, yes?
Yes.
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Oct 22, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would of thought people would hated Bill James here
He’s a current Red Sox executive.
A gamer does NOT wear a foam finger, a dork does.
by SFGuy on Oct 22, 2008 9:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
thought people would hate Bill James here
God horrible grammar.
A gamer does NOT wear a foam finger, a dork does.
by SFGuy on Oct 22, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
If Bill James is right we don’t need to add any bats. Drop Aurilia, Ochoa, Vizquel, and Denker from that list and the remaining 13 (with these projections) make a pretty good offense. In fact an above average offense.
Here is hoping Bill James is right. If he is we are ready to compete now!
by giantsrainman on Oct 22, 2008 9:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
By The Way
The ABs projected for these 13 are not out of line with what might be reasonable if Schierholtz is the starting 1B aand Sandoval the starting 3B. There is nothing unreasonable about projecting 170 backup1B/pinchhitting ABs for Ishikawa, 111 backupC/pinchhitting ABs for Holm, and 241 backup2B/3B/SS/pinchhitting ABs for Velez. The only thing that might be a little out of line is projecting 592 backupOF/pinchhitting ABs for Bowker and Roberts.
by giantsrainman on Oct 22, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is hoping Bill James is right. If he is we are ready to compete now!
Bill James might not be right.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 23, 2008 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
P.S. My Lineup Based On This Would Be
Fred Lewis LF
Randy Winn RF
Aaron Rowand CF
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Nate Schierholtz 1B
Bengie Molina C
Kevin Frandsen 2B
Manny Burriss SS
by giantsrainman on Oct 22, 2008 11:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, regardless of Bill Jame's predictions
I do like this lineup. However, part of me thinks Fred would be better utilized in a run producing role.
And someone better hurry up and teach Nate how to play 1b. Maybe we should all chip in and have a 1b glove shipped to his house, see if he get’s the idea.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Oct 23, 2008 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Fred in the middle
The Giants seemed pretty set on trying out Fred in a run scoring batting position, though, then I don’t know who would lead off except for Winn, but if he’s traded, then Burriss would seem the most logical, both for OBP (which I think will be higher than projected) and SB ability.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 23, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And perhaps
And perhaps Fred will become a good guy at driving in runs, although thus far he hasn’t been. Leading off an inning (which a leadoff man tends to do on occasion :), Fred’s OPS last season was .891. With RISP it fell to just .724.
Personally I think Fred will fall on some harder times, which James himself has predicted for the 2009 season.
I will say this, though. I don’t think the Giants players will hit as well overall as James has projected, but if they do, the Giants should be able to at least approach .500. With a couple of relievers and an added starting pitcher, they might even exceed it.
The Giants’ best chance at having the players hit for the high OPS that James predicted in many cases would be to go to a lot of platooning. A good idea for the short term, but probably not so good for the longer term.
by sharksrog on Oct 23, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Actually, I got a little ahead of myself when I saw that Travis Ishikawa was projected with an .817 OPS. Many of the other projections seem more reasonable.
If the players produced at the levels James suggests, the Giants might improve a bit — but probably not to the .500 level.
The Giants probably need outside help in order to reach .500 next season — and almost certainly to exceed it.
by sharksrog on Oct 23, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If The Giants Hit As James Predicts They Will Score 739 Runs
Last year the average NL Team scored 735 runs and the Giants scored 640. James is predicting the Giants to increase their run production by 99 and become a slightly above average NL offense.
This coupled with the Giants pitching should make the Giants not just around .500 but above and competing for the NL West Crown!
by giantsrainman on Oct 23, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
135 hrs too…man i will be stoked if sandy hits .320 with 17 jacks & schierhotz .299 with 17 bombs
our team projections kinda look like the 2008 Rays
by cazzuno on Oct 23, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually 124 HRs
To get to 135 you need to include Aurilia, Ochoa, and Vizquel numbers which I did not because adding their ABs results in way to many total ABs.
The ABs and Runs Created for the other 13 add up 5446 and 765 respectively. But this AB total is a little out of line. Last year the Giants had 5543 total ABs including 285 from pitchers thus resulting in 5258 ABs from position players. If you adjust the ABs from 5446 down to 5258 this results in adjusting the Runs Created down from 765 to the 735 figure I used.
It would also cost us 6 HRs so -— Actually 118 HRs
by giantsrainman on Oct 23, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a way none of this should surprise us here.
I think the conscious here is if the Giants come up with a couple infielders that are better then "Meh" ( possibility even decent) along with sound health this team is around the upper 70‘s for wins ( almost 500). The thing is there aren’t many of those types of players on the free agent market this winter and we have all seen how prospects can flame out along how the Sabean Era Giants ice them down on the bench. Thus the lower expectations.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 24, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This coupled with the Giants pitching should make the Giants not just around .500 but above and competing for the NL West Crown!
You’ve officially jumped the shark.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 23, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
These Are Not My Predictions They Are Bill James'
I am just looking at the data he provided.
by giantsrainman on Oct 23, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darn you Bill James
Just when my expectations were low.
Don't think, it could only hurt the ballclub.
by ResDog on Oct 23, 2008 6:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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