Would You (another hypothetical trade post)...(not Cain related)?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/cubs-searching.html
I came across the interesting idea of swapping Winn for Derek Lee.
I would personally approve of a straight swap because it would accomplish a few things:
PROS:
1. Schierholtz could play everyday in right
2. We acquire a first baseman with a gold glove, high batting average and at least moderate power
3. Sandoval could try his hat at 3rd or catcher if Molina is traded
4. Lee's Contract lasts only 2 more years; so we're not saddled with him long term
CONS:
1. We'd add about 5 million per year to the team payroll for this year and 12 million next year. (since Lee's contract lasts through 2010 and Winn is in the last year of his contract)
2. Ishikawa and Bowker get pushed back into reserve roles. (Though Bowker can still man the outfield corners and would be a very nice 4th outfielder)
3. Both players have no trade clauses, I think it would be more of an issue with Lee than Winn.
What does everyone else think?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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God, yes. I don’t see why either Lee or the Cubs would go for that, though.
by Evan on Oct 22, 2008 10:30 AM PDT 0 recs
They wouldnt
I would though
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Oct 22, 2008 1:44 PM PDT
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not bad. Not bad at all.
I would say Con 2B ( Bowker) does not really exist because he should be in AAA for at lest part of next season. I think I would something small out of thier minors though. Short of Winn having catastrophic year he should be at least a "B" grade free agent next winter so would want something for the sandwich pick and for taking on their bigger contract.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 10:32 AM PDT 0 recs
I’d say that the “something” you’re talking about would be the superior player in this deal (Lee). Yes, Randy is a good player, but he doesn’t play a position of need and he doesn’t contribute power. I’d say we’re getting plenty of value for him in this scenario (so much that the Cubs would never make this trade).
by cornball on
Oct 22, 2008 2:41 PM PDT
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1 year of Winn filling 3 spots of need on a contender + $17MM + a top 50 draft choice for 2010 =
2 Years of Lee – at least 1 year when this team would be under 500 even with him.
No I am not buying that. Looks too much like a win now move for the Giants. And they are in no position to win now.
I do agree the Cubs don’t move Lee to another team unless the get something lined up for first base before hand. By the way I am rather fond of Lee. Just for the record.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on
Oct 22, 2008 4:58 PM PDT
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Moving Lee for the Cubs makes some sense as it would give them some additional dollars to go after Texeira. Tex would be a good fit for that lineup being a switch hitter, adequate defensively, and Lee’s equal or better in the hitting department. Winn makes sense for the Cubs because he’s decent defensively (better in RF), can also play CF, and gives some additional balance to their lineup.
All that being said, it’s make too much sense for either club to pull it off.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on
Oct 23, 2008 8:41 AM PDT
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Like frilly toothpicks, Im for it.
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 10:47 AM PDT 0 recs
Absolutely. But are the Cubs dumb enough to make that trade as is?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 22, 2008 10:51 AM PDT 0 recs
I think a lot depends how unhappy they are with Lee’s contract vs. his production. They need a lead off man. The need a left handed bat. They are definitely in a winning this season and the next mode. They would probably get a sandwich pick from it. More likely would be move Winn for a 2-3 prospects that they don’t look to be critical to their needs in the next couple years.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on
Oct 22, 2008 11:09 AM PDT
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Don’t they refuse to move Soriano from leadoff because they think it hurts his production?
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 12:00 PM PDT
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Not sure. I am also not sure of accuracy of the rumblings Sorriano thinks it hurts his production.
/shrugs
But he would be good candidate to move into the 3 spot and drop Lee out of hart of the order if they feel Lee’s power is flagging off enough. They were hot and bothered over Roberts, from the O’s, last off season partly because of putting him and is OBP in lead off.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on
Oct 22, 2008 12:15 PM PDT
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it would be
borderline retarded to bat soriano at leadoff. He’s got a career .518 slugging percentage. The dude also has a career .329 on base percentage.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Oct 22, 2008 12:27 PM PDT
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Yet look at their Batting orders on B-R and the cubbs do it quiet a bit.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on
Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT
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the fact that they did it
doesn’t make it right. Fukudome or Theriot probably should have been leadoff all year. I’d prefer Theriot, but I don’t know if he can keep putting up 22+ LD. It’s very dumb to bat Soriano leadoff.
Stolen Bases are overrated.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Oct 22, 2008 1:08 PM PDT
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You identified one point ( Its not a bright thing to do). I identified another point ( They are doing it). I figured we were both smart enough to connect the two points without extra help. Neither of us doubt the two points being joined.
So yes we agree.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on
Oct 22, 2008 4:54 PM PDT
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SPEED
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on
Oct 22, 2008 8:26 PM PDT
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Absolutely, although I don't think that's the rumor really
I don’t see any reason for the CUbs to do this. It just opens up a hole at 1B
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 10:55 AM PDT 0 recs
tex?
they want a lefty bat. dunn, giambi and ibanez, if they’re willing to sacrifice defense? i don’t know what they intend on spending this offseason, but there are plenty of options and they’d be one of the few contenders looking to fill that hole.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Oct 24, 2008 10:25 AM PDT
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I’d love it, but I don’t know why the Cubs would do it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 11:10 AM PDT 0 recs
Yes
But the Cubs wouldn’t.
(Prove me wrong, guys!)
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Oct 22, 2008 11:27 AM PDT 0 recs
How many more ways can we say...
I love the trade, but why would the Cubs make it?
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Oct 22, 2008 11:39 AM PDT 0 recs
Let’s try to find a few more.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Oct 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT
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¿Adoro la propuesta, pero por qué lo harían los Cachorros?
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on
Oct 22, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
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I-ay ovelay ethay adetray, utbay eye-whay ouldway ethay Ubscay akemay it-ay?
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 22, 2008 12:18 PM PDT
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Winn for Pie?
I’d do that, although I don’t know if the CUbs are still in love with Pie. Or how well they rate Winn’s defense compared to the basic defensive metrics we know
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT 0 recs
countdown to first “Apple”, “Banana Cream”, or “Shepherd’s” joke in 3…2…1
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT
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pumpkin please!
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on
Oct 22, 2008 12:04 PM PDT
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Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 22, 2008 12:21 PM PDT
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meh
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on
Oct 22, 2008 12:04 PM PDT
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The Cubs would do it
for the reasons noted above: they want more salary flexibility (to pursue coveted FAs this offseason) and they want a lefthanded bat with good defense for the outfield. A Winn-for-Lee swap does that and nets them about $4 million/yr more towards those FA hopes.
As for the Giants, getting Lee for his two remaining years and $26 million may seem steep, but he’ll also get them good defense, a .285 average, and 20-25 HRs and 90 RBIs per year as well. And Lee would be a great two-year bridge to Angel Villalona in 2011.
It also allows the Giants to return to the idea of putting Pablo at 3B for the next several years at a far lower cost than what it would take to get and have Adrian Beltre. By doing this, they could then focus on improving the middle infield with another power bat (JJ Hardy anyone?) for Jonathan Sanchez and another player. I only wish they could move Rowand also, but I guess I shouldn’t get greedy.
Having Burriss (for 2B) lead off, and be followed with:
Rowand
Lewis
Hardy
Lee
Molina
Sandoval
Schierholtz
wouldn’t be too bad. And we get to keep Caincecum intact, and could bring up Joe Martinez for the 5 spot, assuming Lowry makes it all the way back. Plus, we’d still have the money to upgrade the bullpen.
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
by Buck Henry on Oct 22, 2008 12:06 PM PDT 0 recs
The other big benefit for the Giants:
They no longer have to pretend Bengie Molina is a cleanup hitter.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on
Oct 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT
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But....
now they have a 1B vacancy (as well as middle of the order gap) they need to fill, with only an extra 4M to play with.
Is there some Iowa Cub stud 1B I’m forgetting?
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT
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They might want Texiera?
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on
Oct 22, 2008 3:09 PM PDT
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Throw in Ishikawa for a minor leaguer on the cubs end maybe.
If Villalona isn’t ready in two years (which is probably a safe bet, Sandoval or Bowker could take over for a few years, or maybe someone else will come along
by Keenlow on
Oct 22, 2008 4:18 PM PDT
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Jason Marquis for Winn (or comparable CF)
is much more realistic in my mind. Although, not a deal I’d certainly want personally. Some other team could do it though
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:27 PM PDT 0 recs
Everyone here is asking why the Cubs would do it.
My question, why would the Giants do it? This reminds me of the Konerko trade that some argued for prior to 2008.
Lee is a going to be 33 year old 1b, who in the last 3 years has had OPS+ of: 112, 131, 111, and will cost $13M /2.
Is he really all that much better than someone like Russ Branyan?
Why not spend the money, even if it is more, on someone better, instead of an ageing OKish 1b whose skills appear very much to be on the decline.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Oct 22, 2008 12:37 PM PDT 0 recs
Big name...decent upside
He is only one year removed from a very good season, plus his glove brings added value to the table I believe.
Above all, he is a name and has more upside than anything else the Giants could get for Winn. Problem is, I don’t think we could get him with Winn.
McC certainly values Winn more than his market value, and as good as he was last year, we should be playing Nate Schierholtz so if we can get something as good as Lee, I think people would be thrilled
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT
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Well, Rafael Furcal
is also a big name. Adam Dunn is a big name. Mark Teixeira is an even bigger name. And Sabathia can be an even bigger name AND a home town hero.
Why does it have to be Winn for Lee? Why not dump Winn, if you really think his market value is so low, either get a stopgap Branyan / Phelps to fill 1b, or go with Ishikawa, and then use the money you would have given Lee as part of a bigger deal for a better player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 1:04 PM PDT
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difference
-Teixeira and CC are 7+ year commitments with 120-150 million tied up
-Dunn is probably a 5 year, 75 million dollar commitment, and to me he seems like a guy who could be the next Richie Sexson
-Furcal would be 4 years, 50 million in all liklihood and carries tons of health risks
Teixeira is really the only guy of those 4 I’d even think about investing in, but at 7 years/140 million potentially, I just don’t know if that’s worth it.
A two year Derek Lee investment is much more managable
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT
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oh yeah
and virtually all of those guys will cost a 2nd round draft pick, which carries some value
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT
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Just because a contract is small doens't mean that it is better
One example, some of Billy Beane’s worst moves have been “manageable” contracts such as Esteban Loaiza, Mark Redman.
Carl Pavano’s contract, for a big market team, at first glance is also appears fairly manageable. $40M doesn’t apppear a lot.
Jose Guillen’s contract, is also “manageable”.
The problem with (over)paying for OKish players is that:
it’s easier to find OKish players than stars.
An OKish player who declines even slightly, is pretty much no better than essentially “free” talent.
Furthermore, for whatever reason, 1b seems to be a position where “free” talent is more easily available: teams still appear to underrate the cheap100-110 OPS+ 1b types.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 1:17 PM PDT
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I don’t consider Derrek Lee in the Loaiza, Redman, Guillen range. The guy posted a .400 OBP in 2007. He has had a better career than any of those names above. I also think because Derrek Lee still has a seeimingyl good reputation in the bigs he would walk a great amount with a Molina/Sandoval backing him up the lineup.
Would I rather have Teixeira? Of course, he’s a much better player. Would I prefer Teixeira for 7 years, 140 million? I don’t know, not to mention I don’t know how willing he would be to come here.
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 1:27 PM PDT
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Yeah, Derek Lee in his prime
was definitely not in the Loaiza et al range. Even so, he was never all that special. He has a career OPS+ of 123 as a 1b.
The issue is how likely he’s likely to get back to a 130 OPS+ level.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 1:40 PM PDT
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I'd tend to agree
I don’t think the smart money is on him returning to 130 OPS level, but I do think he will bring a good OBP, possibly .375-.390 given the relative lack of sluggers in this lineup.
With one good year, he immediately has good trade value, which is the true value I see in him.
All that being said, I think the move would ultimately be quite good. It’s a big name that pleases fans and doesn’t cripple the future at all. He could even prove quite useful to the current team and future teams (via trade) and we clear a way for Nate to play.
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 2:01 PM PDT
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Getting Lee to get us to Villalona
at 1B would be great, even if we had to throw in Taschner.
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
by Buck Henry on
Oct 22, 2008 2:09 PM PDT
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for that to happen
We’d probably have to extend Lee until 2012… ;)
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 2:22 PM PDT
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If he can't return to a 130 OPS+ level, he really isn't worth
$26M / 2. Not as a 1b. OBP or no OBP. OBP is nice, but he is a 1b paid a fairly large salary. He has to slug.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 2:49 PM PDT
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what else
are they going to use the money on?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Oct 22, 2008 3:54 PM PDT
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Also, Wrigley is a hitter's park.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 2:50 PM PDT
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Good point.
last 3 years: 955 OPS at home, 774 away
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on
Oct 22, 2008 3:13 PM PDT
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valid point, although doesn’t OPS+ adjust for park anyway?
Wrigley field isn’t the sole reason for those splits, it just helps accentuate them.
And Lee doesn’t need to be a 130 OPS+ player over two years to justify his deal, if he can give us one year close to that we can trade him. If Lee hits .299/.375/.475 he could probably be traded for a decent package of prospects. If he does better, he can DEFINITELY be traded for a good package of prospects
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 3:55 PM PDT
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Well, yeah, OPS+ adjusts for park
but you’re saying that he had a 400 OBP in 2007. Tha’ts not park adjusted.
As for trading him, I don’t believe so. Trading an ageing 1b with declining skills for a decent package of prospects isn’t going to happen. Not in a market where MLB GMs value their prospects. The most likely scenario is someone giving you a C prospect, and taking him off your hands.
In 2008, league average EQA for 1b was 283. In 2007, 279. IN 2006, 281. Lee in those season, 279, 299, 282.
Paying him $13M, and having to give up something for him, he pretty much has to return to his 2007 levels and maybe very slightly worse than that, for him to be worth it.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 23, 2008 12:11 AM PDT
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If he put up good numbers
I would think that we would want to keep him because in 2010 we would (hopefully) be close to contending.
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on
Oct 23, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
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I agree. Lee isn’t that good and will be expensive. I’d rather trade Winn for a prospect and spend the money somewhere else.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 22, 2008 12:50 PM PDT
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Plus..
I think it’s fair to say Konerko’s 2008 was quite unlucky. His LD% was higher than 2007 and while his expected BABIP should have been around .333, it was at .247
He still posted a good BB/K rate, decent power, and even in a poor year posted an OPS+ of 103, which isn’t terrible (until you factor in his salary). Konerko is certainly overpaid, but I’m sure he’ll bounce back and aside from that, I think Lee is a better player
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT
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I think Konerko is a sinking ship (lol Hillenbrand). I expect him to have a Richie Sexson crash in ’09.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT
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not saying I'd want Konerko, but...
what do you base a Sexson like collapse on? Sexson was one of the most strikeout prone batters of his era, Konerko strikes out plenty, but not in Sexson’s league and those rates have been stable the past 4 years.
I think down the road Adam Dunn is more prone to a Sexson-esque collapse than Konerko is anytime soon
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 1:05 PM PDT
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It’s not as sharp as Sexson’s decline, but it’s going down and when you consider that Konerko plays in a very good hitters park and Sexson played in Safeco, I wonder how much his decline in power has been masked by his home park.
If you look at his ISO on the road this year, it’s even more apparent.
He’s a slightly below average defender with declining power and entering his early mid-30’s. I’m not sure what there is to like about Konerko right now. Just reminds me too much of Sexson’s decent into old player skillsitis.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 22, 2008 1:18 PM PDT
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I misspelled ‘descent’ and for those interested, the White Sox’s home park was the top park in the AL in ‘08 for HR’s. That’s why I think Konerko’s park is masking some of his power decline.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 22, 2008 1:20 PM PDT
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his career is certainly going downward, but throwing around the Sexson word is too drastic in my opinion. Sexson became one of the worst players in baseball, and was far more prone to striking out than Konerko.
As the power left, the strikeouts stayed, and that killed Sexson. Konerko will be hurt too, but I wouldn’t put him in Sexson territory. Decline, yes, rapid fall into most damaging player in baseball? No.
I don’t like Konerko either, but I just don’t see him dying like Sexson just yet. I guess we’ll see
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 22, 2008 1:32 PM PDT
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One thing to consider re comparisons with Sexson
Sexson is 6’ 8’. He has a huge strikezone.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 1:42 PM PDT
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103 OPS+ from a 1b with bad D,
and is slow like a Molina on the bases is pretty damn poor. And I agree that he’ll bounce back. PROVIDED he can stay healthy.
But all that misses the point. The point is that a Branyan, or a Phelps can give you a level of performance at levels that are only slightly worse than that of an ageing Konerko, at minimal wage.
Which allows you then spend the money elsewhere.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 22, 2008 1:01 PM PDT
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I'm a Phelps guy
I’m all for cheap options at 1B. However, I think Derek Lee can be something much more and would be willing to roll the dice on his upside.
While I think Konerko will bounce back to a degree, I agree, Phelps isn’t too much worse for millions less. However, I think Derek Lee could be worth a great deal more, especially when you factor in defense and name value.
Derek Lee posting another 130 OPS+ year would give him tremendous trade value for next year


