Would You (another hypothetical trade post)...(not Cain related)?
by Keenlow on Oct 22, 2008 10:22 AM PDT
Email
Printhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/cubs-searching.html
I came across the interesting idea of swapping Winn for Derek Lee.
I would personally approve of a straight swap because it would accomplish a few things:
PROS:
1. Schierholtz could play everyday in right
2. We acquire a first baseman with a gold glove, high batting average and at least moderate power
3. Sandoval could try his hat at 3rd or catcher if Molina is traded
4. Lee's Contract lasts only 2 more years; so we're not saddled with him long term
CONS:
1. We'd add about 5 million per year to the team payroll for this year and 12 million next year. (since Lee's contract lasts through 2010 and Winn is in the last year of his contract)
2. Ishikawa and Bowker get pushed back into reserve roles. (Though Bowker can still man the outfield corners and would be a very nice 4th outfielder)
3. Both players have no trade clauses, I think it would be more of an issue with Lee than Winn.
What does everyone else think?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
149 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
not bad. Not bad at all.
I would say Con 2B ( Bowker) does not really exist because he should be in AAA for at lest part of next season. I think I would something small out of thier minors though. Short of Winn having catastrophic year he should be at least a "B" grade free agent next winter so would want something for the sandwich pick and for taking on their bigger contract.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
I’d say that the “something” you’re talking about would be the superior player in this deal (Lee). Yes, Randy is a good player, but he doesn’t play a position of need and he doesn’t contribute power. I’d say we’re getting plenty of value for him in this scenario (so much that the Cubs would never make this trade).
1 year of Winn filling 3 spots of need on a contender + $17MM + a top 50 draft choice for 2010 =
2 Years of Lee – at least 1 year when this team would be under 500 even with him.
No I am not buying that. Looks too much like a win now move for the Giants. And they are in no position to win now.
I do agree the Cubs don’t move Lee to another team unless the get something lined up for first base before hand. By the way I am rather fond of Lee. Just for the record.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
Moving Lee for the Cubs makes some sense as it would give them some additional dollars to go after Texeira. Tex would be a good fit for that lineup being a switch hitter, adequate defensively, and Lee’s equal or better in the hitting department. Winn makes sense for the Cubs because he’s decent defensively (better in RF), can also play CF, and gives some additional balance to their lineup.
All that being said, it’s make too much sense for either club to pull it off.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
Like frilly toothpicks, Im for it.
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Spead the word to our members nationwide.
by chilibean_3 on Oct 22, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Absolutely. But are the Cubs dumb enough to make that trade as is?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 22, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions
I think a lot depends how unhappy they are with Lee’s contract vs. his production. They need a lead off man. The need a left handed bat. They are definitely in a winning this season and the next mode. They would probably get a sandwich pick from it. More likely would be move Winn for a 2-3 prospects that they don’t look to be critical to their needs in the next couple years.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Don’t they refuse to move Soriano from leadoff because they think it hurts his production?
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure. I am also not sure of accuracy of the rumblings Sorriano thinks it hurts his production.
/shrugs
But he would be good candidate to move into the 3 spot and drop Lee out of hart of the order if they feel Lee’s power is flagging off enough. They were hot and bothered over Roberts, from the O’s, last off season partly because of putting him and is OBP in lead off.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
it would be
borderline retarded to bat soriano at leadoff. He’s got a career .518 slugging percentage. The dude also has a career .329 on base percentage.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Yet look at their Batting orders on B-R and the cubbs do it quiet a bit.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
the fact that they did it
doesn’t make it right. Fukudome or Theriot probably should have been leadoff all year. I’d prefer Theriot, but I don’t know if he can keep putting up 22+ LD. It’s very dumb to bat Soriano leadoff.
Stolen Bases are overrated.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
You identified one point ( Its not a bright thing to do). I identified another point ( They are doing it). I figured we were both smart enough to connect the two points without extra help. Neither of us doubt the two points being joined.
So yes we agree.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
Absolutely, although I don't think that's the rumor really
I don’t see any reason for the CUbs to do this. It just opens up a hole at 1B
tex?
they want a lefty bat. dunn, giambi and ibanez, if they’re willing to sacrifice defense? i don’t know what they intend on spending this offseason, but there are plenty of options and they’d be one of the few contenders looking to fill that hole.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
Yes
But the Cubs wouldn’t.
(Prove me wrong, guys!)
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
How many more ways can we say...
I love the trade, but why would the Cubs make it?
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Let’s try to find a few more.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
¿Adoro la propuesta, pero por qué lo harían los Cachorros?
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Oct 22, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I-ay ovelay ethay adetray, utbay eye-whay ouldway ethay Ubscay akemay it-ay?
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 22, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Winn for Pie?
I’d do that, although I don’t know if the CUbs are still in love with Pie. Or how well they rate Winn’s defense compared to the basic defensive metrics we know
countdown to first “Apple”, “Banana Cream”, or “Shepherd’s” joke in 3…2…1
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
pumpkin please!
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 22, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
The Cubs would do it
for the reasons noted above: they want more salary flexibility (to pursue coveted FAs this offseason) and they want a lefthanded bat with good defense for the outfield. A Winn-for-Lee swap does that and nets them about $4 million/yr more towards those FA hopes.
As for the Giants, getting Lee for his two remaining years and $26 million may seem steep, but he’ll also get them good defense, a .285 average, and 20-25 HRs and 90 RBIs per year as well. And Lee would be a great two-year bridge to Angel Villalona in 2011.
It also allows the Giants to return to the idea of putting Pablo at 3B for the next several years at a far lower cost than what it would take to get and have Adrian Beltre. By doing this, they could then focus on improving the middle infield with another power bat (JJ Hardy anyone?) for Jonathan Sanchez and another player. I only wish they could move Rowand also, but I guess I shouldn’t get greedy.
Having Burriss (for 2B) lead off, and be followed with:
Rowand
Lewis
Hardy
Lee
Molina
Sandoval
Schierholtz
wouldn’t be too bad. And we get to keep Caincecum intact, and could bring up Joe Martinez for the 5 spot, assuming Lowry makes it all the way back. Plus, we’d still have the money to upgrade the bullpen.
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
The other big benefit for the Giants:
They no longer have to pretend Bengie Molina is a cleanup hitter.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Oct 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
But....
now they have a 1B vacancy (as well as middle of the order gap) they need to fill, with only an extra 4M to play with.
Is there some Iowa Cub stud 1B I’m forgetting?
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Jason Marquis for Winn (or comparable CF)
is much more realistic in my mind. Although, not a deal I’d certainly want personally. Some other team could do it though
Everyone here is asking why the Cubs would do it.
My question, why would the Giants do it? This reminds me of the Konerko trade that some argued for prior to 2008.
Lee is a going to be 33 year old 1b, who in the last 3 years has had OPS+ of: 112, 131, 111, and will cost $13M /2.
Is he really all that much better than someone like Russ Branyan?
Why not spend the money, even if it is more, on someone better, instead of an ageing OKish 1b whose skills appear very much to be on the decline.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Big name...decent upside
He is only one year removed from a very good season, plus his glove brings added value to the table I believe.
Above all, he is a name and has more upside than anything else the Giants could get for Winn. Problem is, I don’t think we could get him with Winn.
McC certainly values Winn more than his market value, and as good as he was last year, we should be playing Nate Schierholtz so if we can get something as good as Lee, I think people would be thrilled
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, Rafael Furcal
is also a big name. Adam Dunn is a big name. Mark Teixeira is an even bigger name. And Sabathia can be an even bigger name AND a home town hero.
Why does it have to be Winn for Lee? Why not dump Winn, if you really think his market value is so low, either get a stopgap Branyan / Phelps to fill 1b, or go with Ishikawa, and then use the money you would have given Lee as part of a bigger deal for a better player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
difference
-Teixeira and CC are 7+ year commitments with 120-150 million tied up
-Dunn is probably a 5 year, 75 million dollar commitment, and to me he seems like a guy who could be the next Richie Sexson
-Furcal would be 4 years, 50 million in all liklihood and carries tons of health risks
Teixeira is really the only guy of those 4 I’d even think about investing in, but at 7 years/140 million potentially, I just don’t know if that’s worth it.
A two year Derek Lee investment is much more managable
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions
oh yeah
and virtually all of those guys will cost a 2nd round draft pick, which carries some value
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Just because a contract is small doens't mean that it is better
One example, some of Billy Beane’s worst moves have been “manageable” contracts such as Esteban Loaiza, Mark Redman.
Carl Pavano’s contract, for a big market team, at first glance is also appears fairly manageable. $40M doesn’t apppear a lot.
Jose Guillen’s contract, is also “manageable”.
The problem with (over)paying for OKish players is that:
it’s easier to find OKish players than stars.
An OKish player who declines even slightly, is pretty much no better than essentially “free” talent.
Furthermore, for whatever reason, 1b seems to be a position where “free” talent is more easily available: teams still appear to underrate the cheap100-110 OPS+ 1b types.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I don’t consider Derrek Lee in the Loaiza, Redman, Guillen range. The guy posted a .400 OBP in 2007. He has had a better career than any of those names above. I also think because Derrek Lee still has a seeimingyl good reputation in the bigs he would walk a great amount with a Molina/Sandoval backing him up the lineup.
Would I rather have Teixeira? Of course, he’s a much better player. Would I prefer Teixeira for 7 years, 140 million? I don’t know, not to mention I don’t know how willing he would be to come here.
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, Derek Lee in his prime
was definitely not in the Loaiza et al range. Even so, he was never all that special. He has a career OPS+ of 123 as a 1b.
The issue is how likely he’s likely to get back to a 130 OPS+ level.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I'd tend to agree
I don’t think the smart money is on him returning to 130 OPS level, but I do think he will bring a good OBP, possibly .375-.390 given the relative lack of sluggers in this lineup.
With one good year, he immediately has good trade value, which is the true value I see in him.
All that being said, I think the move would ultimately be quite good. It’s a big name that pleases fans and doesn’t cripple the future at all. He could even prove quite useful to the current team and future teams (via trade) and we clear a way for Nate to play.
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Getting Lee to get us to Villalona
at 1B would be great, even if we had to throw in Taschner.
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
for that to happen
We’d probably have to extend Lee until 2012… ;)
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
If he can't return to a 130 OPS+ level, he really isn't worth
$26M / 2. Not as a 1b. OBP or no OBP. OBP is nice, but he is a 1b paid a fairly large salary. He has to slug.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Also, Wrigley is a hitter's park.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Good point.
last 3 years: 955 OPS at home, 774 away
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
valid point, although doesn’t OPS+ adjust for park anyway?
Wrigley field isn’t the sole reason for those splits, it just helps accentuate them.
And Lee doesn’t need to be a 130 OPS+ player over two years to justify his deal, if he can give us one year close to that we can trade him. If Lee hits .299/.375/.475 he could probably be traded for a decent package of prospects. If he does better, he can DEFINITELY be traded for a good package of prospects
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yeah, OPS+ adjusts for park
but you’re saying that he had a 400 OBP in 2007. Tha’ts not park adjusted.
As for trading him, I don’t believe so. Trading an ageing 1b with declining skills for a decent package of prospects isn’t going to happen. Not in a market where MLB GMs value their prospects. The most likely scenario is someone giving you a C prospect, and taking him off your hands.
In 2008, league average EQA for 1b was 283. In 2007, 279. IN 2006, 281. Lee in those season, 279, 299, 282.
Paying him $13M, and having to give up something for him, he pretty much has to return to his 2007 levels and maybe very slightly worse than that, for him to be worth it.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
If he put up good numbers
I would think that we would want to keep him because in 2010 we would (hopefully) be close to contending.
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
Plus..
I think it’s fair to say Konerko’s 2008 was quite unlucky. His LD% was higher than 2007 and while his expected BABIP should have been around .333, it was at .247
He still posted a good BB/K rate, decent power, and even in a poor year posted an OPS+ of 103, which isn’t terrible (until you factor in his salary). Konerko is certainly overpaid, but I’m sure he’ll bounce back and aside from that, I think Lee is a better player
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Konerko is a sinking ship (lol Hillenbrand). I expect him to have a Richie Sexson crash in ’09.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
not saying I'd want Konerko, but...
what do you base a Sexson like collapse on? Sexson was one of the most strikeout prone batters of his era, Konerko strikes out plenty, but not in Sexson’s league and those rates have been stable the past 4 years.
I think down the road Adam Dunn is more prone to a Sexson-esque collapse than Konerko is anytime soon
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s not as sharp as Sexson’s decline, but it’s going down and when you consider that Konerko plays in a very good hitters park and Sexson played in Safeco, I wonder how much his decline in power has been masked by his home park.
If you look at his ISO on the road this year, it’s even more apparent.
He’s a slightly below average defender with declining power and entering his early mid-30’s. I’m not sure what there is to like about Konerko right now. Just reminds me too much of Sexson’s decent into old player skillsitis.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
I misspelled ‘descent’ and for those interested, the White Sox’s home park was the top park in the AL in ‘08 for HR’s. That’s why I think Konerko’s park is masking some of his power decline.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
his career is certainly going downward, but throwing around the Sexson word is too drastic in my opinion. Sexson became one of the worst players in baseball, and was far more prone to striking out than Konerko.
As the power left, the strikeouts stayed, and that killed Sexson. Konerko will be hurt too, but I wouldn’t put him in Sexson territory. Decline, yes, rapid fall into most damaging player in baseball? No.
I don’t like Konerko either, but I just don’t see him dying like Sexson just yet. I guess we’ll see
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
One thing to consider re comparisons with Sexson
Sexson is 6’ 8’. He has a huge strikezone.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
103 OPS+ from a 1b with bad D,
and is slow like a Molina on the bases is pretty damn poor. And I agree that he’ll bounce back. PROVIDED he can stay healthy.
But all that misses the point. The point is that a Branyan, or a Phelps can give you a level of performance at levels that are only slightly worse than that of an ageing Konerko, at minimal wage.
Which allows you then spend the money elsewhere.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I'm a Phelps guy
I’m all for cheap options at 1B. However, I think Derek Lee can be something much more and would be willing to roll the dice on his upside.
While I think Konerko will bounce back to a degree, I agree, Phelps isn’t too much worse for millions less. However, I think Derek Lee could be worth a great deal more, especially when you factor in defense and name value.
Derek Lee posting another 130 OPS+ year would give him tremendous trade value for next year
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not totally against Lee
in certain circumstances: if there were no better solutions.
But, this year is one of the better FA years in recent times, with a good selection of pitching: Sabathia, Sheets, likely Burnett, Lowe; and hitting / position players: Manny, Dunn, Teixeira, Furcal, Orlando Hudson.
Wouldn’t it be better spending the money you will have to give Lee elsewhere?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I think that’s where we differ. I really don’t want the Giants to sign any of those guys. Scroll up for my reasons why.
I didn’t comment on Hudson, but here’s where I stand…the guys is probably looking at 4/50 as a starting point and maybe 5/65 as a potential cost, and as great as his glove is, I just don’t know if I’d want to spend that.
We’re going to need serious money to keep Lincecum and Cain beyond their years and if that is the chosen course of action, I’d prefer having lots of free money left for that. We already have enough wasted money in Rowand and Zito.
Teixeira is the only one of those guys I’d even consider, but costs a fairly absurd amount and I think that money can be used better elsewhere. If a David Wright or Hanley type player was on the FA market, I might sing a different tune
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoah
if Orlando Hudson wants a contract for 5/65, I’d probably do it. The guy is one of the most underrated baseball players today. In limited, injured action this year, he registered 7 wins above a bench player which is 70% of an average player. His glove is crazy good and his bat is very good for 2b.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
not that I think it's the end all be all by any stretch...
but he was -0.8 in Dial’s offense + defense ratings.
Still, Orlando Hudson is a top 10 2B, but basically tying up 65 million over 5 years for Hudson just isn’t worth it to me. Especially since he’s already 31 and will be signed thru his post-prime years.
Is he really worth 60 million more than Kevin Frandsen?
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
he had
a below average, injury shortened year. He has an excellent swing, put up wOBAs of 96, 106, 106 and 109 the past four years. Last year he was the third best second baseman in baseball with a +20 according to +/- which is my favorite defensive metric.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I like him
don’t get me wrong, I just don’t think Orlando Hudson ages 31-35 is 60 million dollar better than Kevin Frandsen ages 26-30
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see
any reason his skills would decrease significantly during that time. he’s a productive player who hits line drives, doesn’t rely a ton on power or speed and the hand injury is the only real issue.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
his hitting might not suffer too greatly, but it will probably take a hit. The bigger concern is what it does to his defense, which is where he derives most of his value.
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
And despite
how good this year might be for FAs, how many of them (if any) would actually sign in SF?
NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!
There is the Key
We have seen before that many of good FA hitters choose not to come to the Giants. Personally, I think the negative park effects are overrated.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
Many? How many?
How many took less money to play elsewhere?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Okay...
Two off the top of my head :-)
Lee and Soriano . I glad Lee did not accept the offer. Matthews JR as well (Thank God) Others ? Many may have been a slight overstatement.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
*
I glad Lee did not accept the offer.
should be I’m.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
should it though?
those homers, 119 wOBA+, 126 and 144 OPS+ and decent defense would look pretty good in left field. Fred Lewis is installed in center and Randy Winn in right. that sounds pretty decent to me.
I’d love to have carlos lee. that was a great contract for the Astros.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Lee plays decent D?
Carlos Lee? He’s one of the worst LFs in MLB defensively. Much of his offensive value is negated by his D. He’s like a potted planted.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Potted plant
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
that's untrue
his RZR is .840-.860 the past three years. That’s just a bit above average.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't Get Me Wrong
Carlos Lee is a Very Good Hitter. It would have been nice to have his bat in the line up the last two years. I have never gotten the impression that he is a decent fielder though. Most defensive metrics are comlicated and vary wildly in their measurement as far a I can tell.
In this example from The Baseball Analysts Page on July 31 2008,
Carlos Lee ranked 108 out of 164 Left Fielders ( Manny Ramirez was last ). Fred Lewis ranked number 1.It is a pretty interesting ranking, with a full explanation of how the rankings were derived.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
I've also heard
the Crawford boxes make LF easier to play because it causes less ground to cover, but I can’t confirm if that’s even a fact
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
well
Manny had the green monster and still managed to put up a -28 last year.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
funny enough
according to Chris Dial, he was worth about 2 runs over average in his time in LA.
He also has Derrek Lee up at -10 runs for his offense last year and .1 of a run made up on defense so i don’t know how much I trust those numbers.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 23, 2008 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Lee is a 1B, so he’s compared to other 1B for his offensive and defensive numbers. It was a pretty strong year in the NL for first basemen. You’ve got: Pujols, Berkman, Tex, Gonzalez, Votto, Howard, and Delgado.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
Meaning that the bar is set pretty high to be an above average player at that position. Lee’s sOPS+ was 102, meaning that he was essentially a league average offensive first basemen. Dial’s offensive measure didn’t like him too much, but it’s not crazy to think he was average or slightly below as a hitter for his position when compared to his contemporaries.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
where
do you find the sOPS+ stat? I would love to poke around with that for a couple hours, if you know what i mean.
Do you know where the discrepancy lies in Dial’s offensive calculations vs. more traditional stats? I really can’t see how Derrek Lee’s year resulted in a full win less than an average 1B would provide.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 23, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
You can find sOPS+ on any BB-Ref player’s split pages.
For example, this is Lee’s splits from ’08
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=leede02&year=2008
Just scroll down to defensive positions subheading and you can see how Lee fared against other 1B in the NL for ’08.
As for this:
I really can’t see how Derrek Lee’s year resulted in a full win less than an average 1B would provide.
Remember that average production is really hard to get in baseball. We aren’t talking about replacement level, but average.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
I know
but, as you said, the dude put up a 102 sOPS+. His LD% wasn’t especially out of sync with his BABIP, he kept a healthy OBP and hit twenty homers even though his HR/F was lower than normal. Joey Votto had a 113 sOPS+ and somehow that discrepancy makes him almost 2 full wins better on offense than Lee. That just doesn’t add up to me.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 23, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
BPro have Lee
at 3.8 runs below MLB 1b positional average.
Keep in mind that Dial compares to the respective leagues, ie, Lee is only compared to NL 1b, not NL and AL.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
It's not all that surprising.
For Manny.
Manny is NOT historically bad. He’s the usual garden variety bad defensive OF.
In very small samples, it’s possible for a player to fluke into a good number. Just as it’s possible for a player to hit 450 in a small sample.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Uhh,
The Green Monster makes players look WORSE. NOT better. This is because the zone systems used to consider balls hit 20 foot up the monster, as “in zone” and “catchable”.
Once you park adjust properly for the Monster, Manny is usually around 15 runs below average or somewhat better, around 10-12 runs below average.
He’s typically about 15 runs below average on the road the last couple yaers.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
okay well
he doesn’t make many errors, he isn’t slow and his arm, according to Outfield Kills is just a little below average.
B-pro (RAA) says he’s pretty bad.
THT (RZR) says he’s average.
UZR has him at just below average
PMR pretty much agrees with UZR.
I don’t know exactly how RAA is done, but i trust the other three more than any other systems.
I know Dewan’s +/- has him as somewhere probably about average but I am not sure. Is anyone less cheap than me and actually shelled out the four bucks so you could tell us.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Where exactly do you get that THT says he's average?
He ranks 2nd from bottom among qualified NL LFs. Among all qualified AL LFs, also 2nd from bottom.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
i'm a retard and didn't sort it
you have me here. Now i’m thoroughly confused about whether or not carlos lee’s defense is average or horrible. For what it’s worth, USS Mariner thinks UZR and PMR are the two best public defensive metrics.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 23, 2008 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d split the difference between average and horrible and just call him bad. He’s not Dunn or Burrell bad, but he’s not good either.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
I'm aware of the UZR numbers you're using
The thing is that he’s most recent UZRs are horrendous. As are his most recent zone ratings. Zone rating tends to correspond fairly closely to UZR, since both use the same raw dateasource: data from STATS Inc. Zone Rating, which is what Chris Dial is using, is basically the poor man’s version of UZR, since it’s free.
Just as RZR is the poor man’s version of plus minus. Both RZR and plus minus use data from BIS.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Why won't they sign in SF if the money
is good enough?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
losing team would be my guess
I don’t know how true the reports were, but I do remember hearing Soriano and Lee got better offers from the Giants. Although with Texas state taxes, Lee might have gotten technically more money with HOU.
Plus, most players perceive AT&T as a heavy pitchers park
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Ehh.
The Cubs were a losing team in the season before they signed Soriano too.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
true
I’d chalk it up to the park thing then…I’d assume most players view AT&T as a pitchers park
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, but
they are the cubs.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 22, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
The General Consensus
is that The Phone Booth supresses Hitting, and HR’s in particular. The Park Factors show that is partially true for some aspects of hitting
.The Hit Tracker Home Runs for 2008 were the worst of any park.
. Most of that could be due to the Giants lineup though :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
All true.
I still think a big part of the reason the two mwntioned above said , “No thanks” was the condition of the team.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
even if it's true or not true
it only matters what’s true in the player’s eyes, meaning one bad experience could make up their mind
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
ATT only hurts lefty power hitters.
I’m pretty sure it boosts righties that’s why our park factor is normally around 1 for HR.
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
but...
what does Alfonso Soriano think? Or any player? Their opinions are all that matter for what we’re talking about. Amongst players what would you say the general opinion of AT & T is?
by NeifiChicken on Oct 23, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
There is a
Rowand > Yanks (Matsui +/ prospects) rumor floating around as well, but I’z too lazy to post it.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
I'd do that
Even if Matsui is a worse player, he’ll cost less due to his popularity in Japan and the revenue that brings in. Plus he’d be a bgi hit in the Bay
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I could live with that
Hideki Matsui of
4 years/$52M (2006-09)
signed extension 11/05
Contract Remaining: 09:$13M Total $13M
full no-trade clause
Aaron Rowand of
5 years/$60M (2008-12) (San Francisco)
signed as a free agent 12/12/07
$8M signing bonus ($4M each paid in 2008, 2009)
Contract Remaining 09:$8M +$4M Bonus, 10:$12M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M Total:$48M
full no-trade clause in 2008, limited no-trade clause in 2009-12
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
I like this because takes the "spare" money in this & next seasons budgets and creates spare money for 2011 on. I time when we could really need it.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
Agreed..
Dave,
Any way you can call “Hank” and make it happen ?
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
To get the Lee for Winn deal completed...
I think that a reliever going to Chicago would need to be put into the fold. I am not really sure who the best candidate would be to send, but I just feel that the Cubs would not send their once franchise player for a good leadoff man alone. Does anyone have any ideas of a reliever to send? Taschner? Sadler? Matos? Valdez?
I would be happy with the 2009 lineup to be:
SS Burriss, 2B Frandsen/Velez, LF Lewis, 1B Lee, C Molina, CF Rowand, 3B Pablo, RF Schierholtz
2009 bench:
Utility Velez/Frandsen, OF Roberts, 1B/OF Bowker/Ishikawa, FA/Minor league SS, FA.minor league Catcher
All while keeping the pitching staff intact:
Timmy / Cain / Zito / Sanchez / Lowry
And add 7 of the following relievers:
Wilson / Romo / Hinshaw / Valdez / Taschner / Matos / Sadler / Cowart / Yabu / Pichardo / Hedrick / Espinelli/ FA
Further thoughts on the state of the Giants:
I think that this roster would compete for the NL West Crown and the pitching staff is deep enough to work well into the postseason. Certainly, I would want Teixera to come aboard and fix all the problems that the Giants have, but just don’t see it as really being plausible at 7yrs/150M. Lee would be much more cost effective option mainly because of the less years on his current contract and he could even play until Villalona can take over as someone previously posted above. I also realistically would want CC, but just cant seem to find how Neukom would make his contract work with Zito on board too. Plus I am pretty happy with some of the minor league arms that are young and have showed promise ( Sosa, MadBum, Alderson, etc) and would like to have a spot more readily available when they are knocking on the door. The deep pitching depth that is available to the Giants with a healthy Lowry come this Spring may even allow for the dealing of a Jonathan Sanchez for a decent bounty. This the way I would plan for the offseason and would only be looking for a viable backup for 3B that can spell Pablo if he crashes and burns ( Gillaspie maybe because his clock is running) and a reliable releiver for the pen maybe a Juan Cruz if it wont cost a draft pick. Grill me if you must, but this is the plan I would like to see the Giants take.
by krukuipandclint on Oct 22, 2008 2:49 PM PDT reply actions
IF....
the Cubs are interested in Texeria, then it would make sense for them to trade Lee for Winn, and the Giants’ could even throw in a Billy Sadler to make the Cubbies feel better. That way, the Cubs would get a massive defensive upgrade, a solid hitter, and the $$$ to sign Tex. The Giants’ would only be on the hook for 2 years to Lee, and by that time An-Vil should be coming along nicley. I’m for it. Anyone called Hendry yet?
just give me Hendry’s number and I’ll make the call
by krukuipandclint on Oct 22, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Flip Lee
Trade Winn for Lee and then flip him to whoever loses the Teix stakes…..(saving some $$ and getting a younger prospect)
to the Yanks for Ian Kennedy?
to the Halos for a MI prospect?
to Detroit with Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, and + for Miggy C !!! (not happening, I know…)
…etc…..
Kennedy blows
Cain + Wilson + other stuff for the right to pay Piggy Cab for his huge contract is a non-idea as well.
The Giants really do not have the pitching depth to trade away someone from their rotation. I know everyone says (thinks) they do. But they really don’t.
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
they don't
unless you trade it for future depth
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
We'll just not play until they are ready!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions
we just do what we’d be doing in the meantime anyway…lose. You can’t honestly tell me you see this team being consistent contenders within 3 years
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Kennedy
Sure – he struggled in the bigs, but his minor league season was still strong – check out his #s.
Minors 6 3 2.22 15 13 0 0 0 77.0 57 20 19 4 18 83 0.87 .202 (W, L, ERA, G, GS, CG, S, SO, IP, H, R, ER, HR, BB, SO, GO/AO, AVG)
I think he’d add nicely to the Giants pitching depth….
Sure I can
I can with the very same conviction that you will say they can’t. And at the end of this conversation, we’ll still both not know one way or the other.
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 5:07 PM PDT reply actions
Thinking it over … nah. The whole reason for trading Winn is to make room for Schierholtz, but at this point Ishikawa is about as good a prospect as Schierholtz. Let’s not bring in another mid-30s guy, good though he is, to block him.
I think that's a stretch
Ishikawa as good a prospect as Nate?
Nate at a decent age has a demonstrated the ability to hit very well in AAA in over 750 at bats. Ishi at the same age has been rife with struggles most his career and has two good months in AAA.
Their upside might be similar, but Nate is the much better prospect. That isn’t to say Ishikawa is roadkill, but I think there’s just as much reason for us to believe Ishi will be below average as there is for us to think he’ll be league average. With Nate, he’s a pretty safe bet to be a fairly average right fielder, at least offensively.
Still, Lee might not be the best fit for the Giants, I don’t think Ishi can just be cast off, but if that offer was on the table for me, I’d be prone to take it
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they’re pretty close — note the interchangeable lines on that Bill James spreadsheet Grant posted. Ishikawa’s more of a wild card because of his inconsistency and his contact issues, but he draws walks and looks to me to have more natural power than Nate.
I’d say both of them project out to slightly below average, but each has a shot at being a solid contributor. I don’t want to block either one of them UNLESS we’re going all-in next year, in which case you need to make sure you get a decent shortstop and third baseman as well. A Derrek Lee trade in isolation would just be treading water.
Class A
I wouldn’t think Randy Winn would be a Class A free agent, but might Bengie Molina be if he continues at the pace he has set in the first two years of his contract?
Winn is a type A right now, according to these projections.
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/10/final-elias-projections-national-league_20.html
We’ll know for sure after the WS when Elias releases their rankings.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
Molina also qualifies as a type A right now as well.
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/10/final-elias-rankings-national-league.html
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
