Projection recap: Aaron Rowand

by Lyle on Oct 22, 2008 9:21 AM PDT

Last December's free agent signing of Aaron Rowand generated lots of comments by us Giants fans. I think Ott summed it up best:

So, which Rowand are we getting? The .270/.320/.420 from his worse years, or the .310/.370/.515 from last year? If the former, then yeah, this stinks. If the latter, I don't hate this move.

So let's see how our group wisdom turned out:

AVG OBP SLG HR

Rowand 2008: .271 .339 .410 13

McCoven: .286 .352 .462 18

AVG: The lowest guess was .263 by koel; the highest was .315 by antinous. Our winner at .270, the second-lowest guess, was jasomack. Coming in second at .274 was groug.

OBP: We did better on this prediction. Ever-optimistic antinous had the highest guess at .380; lowest guess was .330 by jasomack. Tied as our winners were koel (.338) and Dan from NM (.340). Jasomack's low guess was good for second place.

SLG: We apparently expected more from Aaron. Antinous, consistent to a fault, predicted a high of .530; Natto went with an even .500. Most pessimistic prediction was .420 by our winner, jasomack. Second place, with the second-lowest guess, goes to Scottsdale.

HR: Most of us thought AT&T would depress Rowand's HR total. Even so, antinous thought he'd be good for 25 jacks. Viva Gigantes thought 24, and even sober-minded Evan guessed 23. Scottsdale averred only 8 HRs. Our tied winners, with guesses of 14, were Cookyman and koel. Just behind was Drysdalecousin with 15, and groug had 16.

Overall, jasomack won two of our four categories, and came in second in another. And in the fourth category, HR, he would have been listed as tied behind groug. Honorable mention to koel for winning (in ties) two categories.

I'll close with a quote from the projection thread by kennv: "Stupid Rowand. Stupid Sabean. Stupid stupid stupid."

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Link, as usual ;-)

My prediction was actually pretty good:

AVG: .285
OBP: .343
SLG: .430
HR: .14
Grit: I don’t know….A lot?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 9:38 AM PDT 0 recs

Drat!

I give up trying to make the link function work…..

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 22, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up 0 recs

I wish we would have gotten the McCoven version of Rowand instead of actual Rowand.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 9:57 AM PDT 0 recs

we got it for the first few months

Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis

by wjackalope on Oct 22, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

Success!

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up 0 recs

He was hitting about that well in late July… then the bottom fell out.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up 0 recs

“… then the bottom fell out.”

Must’ve been the nasty shit.

The Examined Life
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 23, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

Rectal prolapse FTL.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 23, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

/ googles “rectal prolapse”
// unable to contain morbid curiosity, does GIS for “rectal prolapse”
/// regrets it

The Examined Life
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 23, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

Awesome Krukow moment.

Not on You Tube anymore? :-(

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up 0 recs

ALL STAR!!!

by rightcenterfielder on Oct 22, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up 0 recs

Too bad we couldn't predict defense

Then we could have seen just how overrated he might have been coming into this year…=(

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM PDT 0 recs

The poster who wrote this was a genius:

Aaron Rowand is the parsley garnish for a franchise preparing to serve a gourmet meal. The Giants had a paper plate with a shapeless pile of room-temperature raccoon slurry. Now they have a piece of parsley for it. The Giants had just a fantastic offseason.

by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM PDT 0 recs

Wow. Yeah he was.

by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not seein’ it.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Look harder.

by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 7:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

Mmmm….raccoon slurry

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 23, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up 0 recs

I dunno

That guy sounds pretty lame to me.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | art | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Oct 22, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

2008 zips projection

Name	B	T	Team	P	Age	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	
Rowand,Aaron	R	R	SF	cf	30	.278	.340	.429	536	76	149	35	2	14	69	33	97

Had to pull this from the spread sheet as the original zips post still had his Philly projection. That is pretty bang-on. Basically 10 TBs – 3 2Bs and a HR and add a couple walks and you have his exact slash line for 536 ABs.

Well, maybe the .300 hitting fairy will visit us next year…

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 10:23 AM PDT 0 recs

Then its time to … sell! Sell!! Sell!!!

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.

by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up 0 recs

at first

I thought, DAMN! THAT A LOT OF DOUBLES AND TRIPLES!

Fairley odd parent to Wendell

by WTF on Oct 22, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

Hell of a season for a guy with less than half an atbat.

by Moggeee on Oct 24, 2008 12:09 AM PDT up 0 recs

He’s a weird, unpredictable player, isn’t he? The alternation of good years and bad years used to look like an injury-related thing; now it just looks random. He once had a reputation as a superb outfielder, but he often looks like a guy with no idea what he’s doing out there. His batting stance is ridiculous. He’s just weird.

by Evan on Oct 22, 2008 10:34 AM PDT 0 recs

Not exactly

Batting average is just subject to high variance.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up 0 recs

No, it’s not batting average. His peripherals, like ground-ball rate and isolated power, zip up and down the scale apparently at random.

One consistent trend in his periphs: He keeps swinging at more and more pitches out of the strike zone. Awesome.

by Evan on Oct 22, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up 0 recs

you have those numbers

for the last 4 years?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fangraphs to the rescue!

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=254&position=OF&page=6&type=full

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

is a 5% swing in GB/FB totally out of the ordinary?

I don’t spend my precious hours gazing at fangraph porn, but his don’t look particularly wacky.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

I don’t spend my precious hours gazing at fangraph porn, but his don’t look particularly wacky.

Then you aren’t living.

I’m not sure if it’s significant or not, his contact percentage concerns me the most.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

Rowand Peripherals

His batting stance is on the periphery of obscenity.

by Moggeee on Oct 24, 2008 12:25 AM PDT up 0 recs

You know what never varies? GAMERtude.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up 0 recs

Too bad he never found the swagger.

by Natto on Oct 22, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up 0 recs

Other than a high SLG, my prediction was pretty good.

PEGROUGA TO THE RESCUE

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Oct 22, 2008 11:29 AM PDT 0 recs

Quick! Start a website that uses groundbreaking statistical methods to predict the Presidential Election! And one that reviews all of the burrito places in the Chicago area.

by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fantastic Burrito Eatery/Presidential Predictor Database

And then correlate the two datasets!

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Quick! Someone shine the Nate Silver light!

by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 7:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

Chorizo for President! John McCain for Lunch!

by rotorueter on Oct 23, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

I’d totally vote for chorizo.

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 23, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up 0 recs

i'm winning!

i keep reading these, but i keep forgetting to brag about my astute glasshalfemptiness. i’m always a little scared when my name shows up several (3) times in a fanpost.

thanks to lyle for putting these together. at least the ones where i did well. :)

also, pessimism is a strategy.

Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.

by jasomack on Oct 23, 2008 12:02 PM PDT 0 recs

Hey. My one Durham beats three of whatever you got.

And Lyle gets my grudging thanks when he mentions me a second time.

by Moggeee on Oct 24, 2008 12:16 AM PDT up 0 recs

Hey, I had to

He was my guy! I had to show support and my sincere confidence that he’d put up an All-Star campaign. Next year I think I’ll stick to something a little more reasonable, like Velez stealing 100 bases or Zito having an ERA under 5.

Proud member of the Adopt-a-Giant program (Aaron Rowand)

by antinous on Oct 23, 2008 2:58 PM PDT 0 recs