Projection recap: Aaron Rowand
by Lyle on Oct 22, 2008 9:21 AM PDT
41 comments
Last December's free agent signing of Aaron Rowand generated lots of comments by us Giants fans. I think Ott summed it up best:
So, which Rowand are we getting? The .270/.320/.420 from his worse years, or the .310/.370/.515 from last year? If the former, then yeah, this stinks. If the latter, I don't hate this move.
So let's see how our group wisdom turned out:
AVG OBP SLG HR
Rowand 2008: .271 .339 .410 13
McCoven: .286 .352 .462 18
AVG: The lowest guess was .263 by koel; the highest was .315 by antinous. Our winner at .270, the second-lowest guess, was jasomack. Coming in second at .274 was groug.
OBP: We did better on this prediction. Ever-optimistic antinous had the highest guess at .380; lowest guess was .330 by jasomack. Tied as our winners were koel (.338) and Dan from NM (.340). Jasomack's low guess was good for second place.
SLG: We apparently expected more from Aaron. Antinous, consistent to a fault, predicted a high of .530; Natto went with an even .500. Most pessimistic prediction was .420 by our winner, jasomack. Second place, with the second-lowest guess, goes to Scottsdale.
HR: Most of us thought AT&T would depress Rowand's HR total. Even so, antinous thought he'd be good for 25 jacks. Viva Gigantes thought 24, and even sober-minded Evan guessed 23. Scottsdale averred only 8 HRs. Our tied winners, with guesses of 14, were Cookyman and koel. Just behind was Drysdalecousin with 15, and groug had 16.
Overall, jasomack won two of our four categories, and came in second in another. And in the fourth category, HR, he would have been listed as tied behind groug. Honorable mention to koel for winning (in ties) two categories.
I'll close with a quote from the projection thread by kennv: "Stupid Rowand. Stupid Sabean. Stupid stupid stupid."
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
3 recs |
41 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Link, as usual ;-)
My prediction was actually pretty good:
AVG: .285
OBP: .343
SLG: .430
HR: .14
Grit: I don’t know….A lot?
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Oct 22, 2008 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish we would have gotten the McCoven version of Rowand instead of actual Rowand.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 9:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
we got it for the first few months
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Oct 22, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Success!
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was hitting about that well in late July… then the bottom fell out.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Oct 22, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“… then the bottom fell out.”
Must’ve been the nasty shit.
The Examined Life
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 23, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rectal prolapse FTL.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 23, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
/ googles “rectal prolapse”
// unable to contain morbid curiosity, does GIS for “rectal prolapse”
/// regrets it
The Examined Life
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 23, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome Krukow moment.
Not on You Tube anymore? :-(
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Oct 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too bad we couldn't predict defense
Then we could have seen just how overrated he might have been coming into this year…=(
by NeifiChicken on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The poster who wrote this was a genius:
Aaron Rowand is the parsley garnish for a franchise preparing to serve a gourmet meal. The Giants had a paper plate with a shapeless pile of room-temperature raccoon slurry. Now they have a piece of parsley for it. The Giants had just a fantastic offseason.
by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not seein’ it.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008 zips projection
Name B T Team P Age BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Rowand,Aaron R R SF cf 30 .278 .340 .429 536 76 149 35 2 14 69 33 97
Had to pull this from the spread sheet as the original zips post still had his Philly projection. That is pretty bang-on. Basically 10 TBs – 3 2Bs and a HR and add a couple walks and you have his exact slash line for 536 ABs.
Well, maybe the .300 hitting fairy will visit us next year…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Then its time to … sell! Sell!! Sell!!!
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Let's see spread Chaos, Confusion and Anarchy here? Check. My work is complete. I’ll be moving on now.
by daveinexile on Oct 22, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s a weird, unpredictable player, isn’t he? The alternation of good years and bad years used to look like an injury-related thing; now it just looks random. He once had a reputation as a superb outfielder, but he often looks like a guy with no idea what he’s doing out there. His batting stance is ridiculous. He’s just weird.
by Evan on Oct 22, 2008 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly
Batting average is just subject to high variance.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it’s not batting average. His peripherals, like ground-ball rate and isolated power, zip up and down the scale apparently at random.
One consistent trend in his periphs: He keeps swinging at more and more pitches out of the strike zone. Awesome.
by Evan on Oct 22, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you have those numbers
for the last 4 years?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs to the rescue!
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=254&position=OF&page=6&type=full
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is a 5% swing in GB/FB totally out of the ordinary?
I don’t spend my precious hours gazing at fangraph porn, but his don’t look particularly wacky.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 22, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t spend my precious hours gazing at fangraph porn, but his don’t look particularly wacky.
Then you aren’t living.
I’m not sure if it’s significant or not, his contact percentage concerns me the most.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rowand Peripherals
His batting stance is on the periphery of obscenity.
by Moggeee on Oct 24, 2008 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what never varies? GAMERtude.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 22, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other than a high SLG, my prediction was pretty good.
PEGROUGA TO THE RESCUE
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Oct 22, 2008 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Quick! Start a website that uses groundbreaking statistical methods to predict the Presidential Election! And one that reviews all of the burrito places in the Chicago area.
by rotorueter on Oct 22, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fantastic Burrito Eatery/Presidential Predictor Database
And then correlate the two datasets!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 22, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick! Someone shine the Nate Silver light!
by Grant on Oct 22, 2008 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chorizo for President! John McCain for Lunch!
by rotorueter on Oct 23, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d totally vote for chorizo.
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 23, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm winning!
i keep reading these, but i keep forgetting to brag about my astute glasshalfemptiness. i’m always a little scared when my name shows up several (3) times in a fanpost.
thanks to lyle for putting these together. at least the ones where i did well. :)
also, pessimism is a strategy.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Oct 23, 2008 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey. My one Durham beats three of whatever you got.
And Lyle gets my grudging thanks when he mentions me a second time.
by Moggeee on Oct 24, 2008 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I had to
He was my guy! I had to show support and my sincere confidence that he’d put up an All-Star campaign. Next year I think I’ll stick to something a little more reasonable, like Velez stealing 100 bases or Zito having an ERA under 5.
Proud member of the Adopt-a-Giant program (Aaron Rowand)
by antinous on Oct 23, 2008 2:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
