Scherholtz deserves his shot next year
The Giants have to find a way to deal Winn this offseason. Scherholtz is ready to play in right field. Randy Winn did a great job batting over .300 and playing a good right field but his HR out put is too low.
Scherholtz can hit 20 or more jacks in the bigs and the Giants need the power from his bat. Traditionaly power positions in baseball come from both corner outfielders and corner infielders. Sandoval should bring some power to the team and the Giants will get some from whatever deal they make for their 3rd baseman in the offseason.
Lewis will be a 15 -20 HR guy when he fills out a little more and Posey in a couple of years will add even more. Whatever the Giants decide to do they must give Scherholtz his shot.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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There’s more to playing RF than just hitting dingers. Randy Winn was the best positional player on the Giants in 2008.
I like Nate as much as the next guy, but Winn had a nice season. Instead of trading Winn (unless the Giants get a nice deal for a part they need) I’d rather eat Roberts contract, and move him. That way Nate can play some 4th OF and Randy stays.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Oct 2, 2008 11:30 AM PDT 0 recs
No one wants Roberts.
Sports are man's last refuge from the insanity of life.
by TakeAGiantStepNGo on
Oct 2, 2008 11:38 AM PDT
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That might be way you eat some of his salary.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 11:51 AM PDT
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way = why
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 11:51 AM PDT
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even then..
you’d probably be hard pressed to find any takers
DFA is more likely, which would lead to an outright release
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 11:59 AM PDT
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That’s fine, too. You have to move Roberts before you should ever consider moving Winn.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:05 PM PDT
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I’m an advocate for trading Winn AND eating Roberts’ contract. I’d be happy with Lewis-Rowand-Schierholtz as the outfield config.
Going back to the OP’s point on power, Nate showed ability to drive the ball well. That’s what I want to see from him. If he doesn’t become a home run hitter I really don’t care. But if he can become an RBI man and continue as a good hitter, he’s okay by me.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 2, 2008 11:39 AM PDT
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This, I think, is the correct view.
your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid
by Lyle on
Oct 6, 2008 5:50 AM PDT
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I’d say this is the perfect time to sell high on Winn.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 2, 2008 11:43 AM PDT
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You’d think so, but it really seems that he’s going to be permanently underrated, by GMs as well as fans. If you can’t get anything good for him, might as well keep him.
by Evan on
Oct 2, 2008 11:46 AM PDT
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Yup, that’s the point. You only trade Winn if you can get decent value in return.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 11:52 AM PDT
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I like Nate alot...
but I think Evan is right. About the only people that do not underrate him are Dodger Fans . A good freind of mine bleeds serious Dodger blue. He bitched about Winn after every game :-)
Dwight played some pretty bad ass right field this year. I saw him make a few plays off the wall that were nothing short of brilliant. If the worst thing that happens next year is that we get stuck with Winn until July, I could live with that.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Oct 2, 2008 12:54 PM PDT
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I think we can safely say that that’s not going to be the worst thing that happens next year.
by Evan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
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/Lincecum’s arm falls off
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 1:00 PM PDT
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No
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 1:00 PM PDT
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Just Stop That Kind Of Talk Right This Minute.
Where are those mods when you really need someone banned :-)
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Oct 2, 2008 1:02 PM PDT
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Since Winn was so great
I think it’s a good time to trade him. Yes, I’d rather trade Rowand and move Winn to CF, but I don’t think that’s too likely. I’m for trading Winn as long as we can get a good price
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 11:45 AM PDT
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Winn is probably undervalued, so you might get really poor value for him like Evan stated above.
Rowand is basically untradeable. He crashed and burned in the 2nd half and he has a FNTC. He’s not going anywhere.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 11:53 AM PDT
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Winn undervalued?
By many on this board, yes, but I think most know more about Winn’s value than any of us. I think the thing we should all be cognizant of is that so much of the value we are assigning to Winn is based on his noted defensive prowess. Perhaps Winn’s defense isn’t worth as much as we think it is. Maybe it’s worth more. The defensive stats we have access to are far from precise, so I think other GM’s that have far more advanced systems of measuring production would know a lot more than us.
Perhaps that even means Winn has MORE value than we give him, but my point is I don’t know why any of us fans would be so presumptuous as to think WE have a better understanding of Winn’s value than most GM’s. Now, do we know more than GM’s like Brian Sabean? I’d probably say no, but the possibility certainly exists. Problem is, I think the majority of GM’s are not in Brian Sabean’s evaluation bracket.
If we know Winn has x amount of value, I’m sure plenty of other GM’s either agree with us or have a better understanding. I could see the Ray’s possibly taking Winn, but at what price? Zobrist and Edwin Jackson?
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 12:06 PM PDT
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tl;dr
Kidding.
I say Winn is undervalued because he doesn’t hit DINGERS for a RF. I would expect that a majority of GM’s feel the same way.
Defensive stats are getting better and if you look at a variety of them, they all love Randy. So it’s not an issue of measuring him correctly or not.
I wouldn’t trade him for Zorbrist and Jackson.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
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But GMs make bad decisions all the time. They make their decisions on the basis of things like “We need some left-handed pop” or “We need a name player” or “We need to not spend more than $4.25 million” or “We need eighteen centerfielders.”
I think players—and not just players, human beings in general—who do everything well but nothing VERY well are consistently underrated.
by Evan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
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I think players—and not just players, human beings in general—who do everything well but nothing VERY well are consistently underrated.
Exactly, and Winn is like the most NONFLASHY player ever. He’s boring to watch. But he’s also pretty good.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:12 PM PDT
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Winn is like the most NONFLASHY player ever. He’s boring to watch. But he’s also pretty good.
Randy Winn. Professional Baseball Player.
My adopted son Matt Downs. Lost in the wilderness of mediocrity.
by nvsfg on
Oct 2, 2008 12:57 PM PDT
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He’s a lunchpail player. He comes to the ballpark everyday ready to play.
by Natto on
Oct 2, 2008 1:07 PM PDT
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WRONG
He’s not white, he can’t be lunchpail.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .
by oldjacket on
Oct 2, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
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WRONG AGAIN
People of color eat lunch too, not just breakfast and dinner. I can’t believe we’re letting this meal-ism go unchecked.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on
Oct 2, 2008 2:15 PM PDT
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Would not that be mealy mouthed go unchecked?
/ Shrugs
But then what do I know.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 8:53 AM PDT
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At least he’s gifted at worship and celebration.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 2:20 PM PDT
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In that case...
Maybe I should give my television to Keichi Yabu.
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on
Oct 2, 2008 4:32 PM PDT
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Zing!
Ever see that skit? Your own chinese kid! Great for homework and test taking.
WARNING Not for driving tests!
lol, sorry.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Oct 2, 2008 8:55 PM PDT
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Anyone who wants Winn is likely to be very smart, and therefore a dangerous trading partner.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus. Not much about baseball here .
by oldjacket on
Oct 2, 2008 1:25 PM PDT
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They make their decisions on the basis of things like "We need some left-handed pop" or "We need a name player" or "We need to not spend more than $4.25 million" or "We need eighteen centerfielders."
Or, “We missed out on every free agent hitter and we need to make a splash, even it means severely overpaying a ‘crafty’ leftharnader.”
Ralph Barbieri, heal thyself.
by ThrillisGone22 on
Oct 2, 2008 4:35 PM PDT
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Perhaps Winn’s defense isn’t worth as much as we think it is. Maybe it’s worth more. The defensive stats we have access to are far from precise, so I think other GM’s that have far more advanced systems of measuring production would know a lot more than us.
It’s not enough to have “advanced systems”. You need a GM that actually gives a shit about advanced stats, and the vast majority of GM’s don’t.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 12:14 PM PDT
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Example:
Kenny Williams when he traded for Griffey and decided to play him in CF: “It’s actually easier to play CF than it is in the corners”
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:15 PM PDT
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Do I use VORP?" Colletti said, referring to one such sabermetric tool, Value Over Replacement Player. ‘’I may be using it and not even know it, and if I am, it’s nobody’s business. There are a lot of different criteria in judging players. I think I use, um, esoteric qualitative mathematical review times five. That’s one of them."
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 12:20 PM PDT
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>> esoteric qualitative mathematical review times five
Wow.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:21 PM PDT
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EQMRx5
I think we all acknowledge the validity of that one.
your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid
by Lyle on
Oct 6, 2008 6:11 AM PDT
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Needs a lipstick reference.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 8:54 AM PDT
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if you use Ken Williams as an example...
you’re cherry picking…he’s Sabean status
List of Gm’s friendly to stats:
Friedman
Towers
Epstein
Cashman
Byrnes
Beane
Shapiro
Huntington
Daniels
Hmm, there’s probably some I’m ignoring, but that’s at least 9 guys. Maybe I was wrong by saying majority, but I think people underestimate most GM’s.
As for the accuracy of metrics, yes they’ve come along way, but here is my sticking point:
It’s not whether Winn is a good RF or not, it’s the DEGREE to which he is better than his peers. Some might value his defense at 10-20 runs above average, but others don’t. The metrics can agree for the most part that Winn is at that top, but where they disagree is just HOW MUCH value Winn’s defense translates to his peers
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 12:33 PM PDT
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forgot JP
Riccardi
in terms of the “anti stat” GM’s I think the following list is safe:
Gillick
Wade
Sabean
Colletti
Ken Williams
Minaya
I’m sure there’s more, but those are the “locks”. I think it’s much harder to get a read on everyone else
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 12:35 PM PDT
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JP Riccardi is a moron, I wouldn’t use him for any example.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:37 PM PDT
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That is, unless, you’re making a moron list.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:37 PM PDT
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haha, fair enough
Two questions:
1) How sure are you Winn’s run saving defense is 100% accurate (or even 80%? Is there a clear consensus? There very well might be, I’m asking a serious question. Beyond that, how reliable are these metrics and more importantly, WHAT makes them reliable? How are they calculated (plays above average is extremely crude)?
2) What good does Winn do us? Does he make us a 75-win team in 09 vs a 73-win team? Will he even get us 2 picks, surely the Elias Sports Bureau undervalues him if most GM’s do? Is a guy well into his thirties someone we plan on extending?
Just because he might be more valuable than what teams pay, the bottom line is what good does Randy Winn do the Giants? What’s the advantage to keeping him?
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 12:42 PM PDT
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On point one — yes, defensive metrics are fuzzy, but surely there is no question that Winn is quite a bit better than your average corner outfielder (a group that includes the likes of Dunn, Burrell, Manny, Magglio, Abreu, etc.)?
At the plate, the average corner outfielder hits .276/.346/.456 or thereabouts. Winn the last two years has hit .303/.358/.435. He may be due for a slight downturn, but clearly he’s an average hitter with an above-average glove. On a one year contract for $8 million, that’s a pretty good deal, no?
Point two is a good question, and the goals for next year are murky. But even when you’re in hardcore rebuilding mode, it’s surely poor team management to dump good players just for the hell of it.
by Evan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:56 PM PDT
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Once again, I’m agreeing with Evan.
But even when you’re in hardcore rebuilding mode, it’s surely poor team management to dump good players just for the hell of it.
Especially when he was the BEST POSITION PLAYER on the team. I’m realllly hoping that Roberts is gone by ’09.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 1:01 PM PDT
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I’m realllly hoping that Roberts is gone by ’09.
Well Xmass is coming. Dare we hope?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 8:56 AM PDT
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definitely
but I’m not suggesting we dump Win for the hell of it. Let’s just say we were able to get Ben Zobrist and Edwin Jackson like I mentioned earlier. Tampa Bay, might have no interest in this whatsoever, but xanthan felt that would be a poor return so let’s use it.
Zobrist – He might have plenty of flaws, but he could prove to be a useful SS for us over the next 4 years. Unless people really believe in Manny Burris, SS is a huge problem, one I don’t see us solving any time soon. Zobrist isn’t exactly the ideal answer, but he could be a productive offensive SS and could help the team at a time and point when this team has a chance of contending
Jackson – Don’t like him really, but Tampa probably wants to move him with Price and other knocking down the door and as bad as Jackson really is, he still has good stuff and just turned 25. I doubt he ever really becomes anything good, but he might perform slightly better in the NL and there’s no upper level arms he’d be blocking. With Lowry’s health in question, it’s something to consider
Those two surely aren’t an IDEAL catch, but wouldn’t they provide more potential use to the club (well, Zobrist at least) at a point where the Giants might actually be good?
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 1:08 PM PDT
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hopefully
we could do better, but if we couldn’t, I still would say a deal like that is better than no deal. Now if we were trading him for Rajai Davis, or Milwaukee’s Rajai Davis (as we did with Durham) then obviously I’d prefer not to
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 1:10 PM PDT
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I agree that we should do what’s best for the team, even if it means “losing” a trade. But don’t forget that if we don’t trade Winn, we’ll probably get 2 more picks in the 2010 draft. Those picks could be more valuable than whatever we can get in a trade.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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2 picks could be wishful
will Winn be a type A? The FA rankings are more based off of RBI’s HR’s and such which Winn doesn’t impress in.
He’d surely be a type B, but could Winn take arbitration? I’d guess no, but the possibility would certainly exist
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
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Right now he’s a type A , according to this place.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Oct 2, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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even still
there is a decent chance he’d take arb, especially if he has a poor year at the plate (perfectly possible at his age)
Hopefully that fact can increase Winn’s trade value for a team willing to take the gamble. And if nothing good comes along, all the more reason for us to hang onto him
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 1:54 PM PDT
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True but he is in group heavy with slugging power ( First basemen & Outfielders) so he can fall to Type "B" real quickly even without having a poor season.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 8:59 AM PDT
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I guess I’d make that trade. Can we get Justin Ruggiano too?
I haven’t seen Edwin Jackson all year — what’s the deal with him these days? He apparently still throws hard, but his strikeout rate sucks.
by Evan on
Oct 2, 2008 1:12 PM PDT
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IF SF were to trade a starter this winter getting a replacement like Jackson for the back end of the rotation could help.
by wilriv21 on
Oct 2, 2008 1:21 PM PDT
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indeed
I had only seen his stats for the most part this year and was like “How did this guy ever get touted? They’re horrible! Jerome Williams part 2!”
Then I saw him pitch and he was hitting 95, 96 with movement and a pretty big breaking ball. Just didn’t seem to be striking many out. It’s definitely a bit of a mystery, perhaps the ball is just extremely to read out of his hand. Maybe he just throws it down the pipe constantly.
Daniel Cabrera too, I had heard he stopped striking people out to help his control, but the last time I check his walk rates they didn’t improve much at all.
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 2, 2008 1:22 PM PDT
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If JP is a moron,
what is Jon Daniels?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 3, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
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Jon Daniels
might be more “friendly” to stats, but he’s an infinitely worse GM than Kenny Williams. Or Pat Gillick. He might well be one of the worst GMs in MLB.
JD is the GM who pissed away Alfonso Soriano, Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, John Danks and Armando Galarraga. He’s made an absolute mess in Texas.
For all the criticism that someone like KW, or even Ed Wade gets from the stathead community, their overall record is nowhere as horrendous as Jon Daniels’.
I know it’s popular among certain stat influenced fans to hate KW, but is KW really a worse GM than say Mark Shapiro? Or Josh Byrnes? Or Kevin Towers? Or Cashman?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 3, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
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KW is a good trader
However, who is the last prospect to come out of the White Sox organization and help the team?
Joe Crede?
I would say he has been very good in acquiring players from other organizations (Floyd, Danks, Quentin, Jenks to name a few) but trades alone don’t make the GM.
He has a his strengths (trading), but he also has some glaring weaknesses. I wouldn’t call him the worst, but I don’t think he’s a better GM than Shaprio, Byrnes, and Towers. Cashman is always a hard read because the money issue looms so greatly.
As for JD, he really has made some boneheaded trades, but he’s made some very good moves as well. Definitely more good than bad, but yes, he’s been taken advantage of quite a bit
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 3, 2008 11:29 AM PDT
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Isn’t Kenny Williams the genius who traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik?
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on
Oct 3, 2008 11:38 AM PDT
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SI
and the same guy who was saddled with Carlos Quentin
by wilriv21 on
Oct 3, 2008 11:50 AM PDT
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Oh I agree that prospect development is a big weakness of his
But, in the end, the goal is to have a good team. Not have a good team that consists of home grown players. Trades alone don’t make a GM, yes; neither does developing prospects, nor signing FAs, nor drafting.
KW might not be a better GM than Shapiro, Byrnes, Towers; is he any worse? What has Mark Shapiro achieved that KW hasn’t? KW has won the WS, Shapiro has not. KW has reached the playoffs more times than Shapiro and has a better overall record in terms of wins and losses than Shapiro. KW has not had to resort to a “bust” style complete rebuild, resulting in a drastic decrease in ticket sales and fan attendance: before Shapiro took over the Indians, they were regularly selling out, regularly having annual attendances of > 3M. Since Shapiro took over they haven’t come anywhere close to that. And so, the Indians are now “small market”, and can no longer afford large payrolls. Conversely, attendance during KW’s tenure has generally gone up. And maybe not very surprisingly, payroll has also gone up.
What has Towers achieved that KW hasn’t? Byrnes doesn’t have enough of a track record for a judgment to be made
My point with JD isn’t that he’s not made some nice moves. But, even Dave Littlefield made some nice moves as Pirates GM. Even Steve Phillips made some nice moves as Mets GM. The problem with JD is that his bad moves have been horrendously bad. He’s given away a lot of nice young talent, and gotten practically nothing in return.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 3, 2008 12:49 PM PDT
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"The problem with JD is that his bad moves have been horrendously bad."
Hmm, makes me think of a local GM….
your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid
by Lyle on
Oct 6, 2008 6:17 AM PDT
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We’ll, we know that the range for defense is somewhere between -20 (for the worst) and +20 (for the best). So even if you don’t believe we can accurately measure how many runs Winn is saving (we can), you can guesstimate his defensive value pretty easily.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 2, 2008 12:36 PM PDT
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Kenny Williams says lots of (crazy) things
Doesn’t necessarily mean that he genuinely believes all of them.
And, of course, that is NOT what KW said. Here’s what he ACTUALLY said:
"Center field is actually the easiest of the outfield positions to play from a health perspective
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 3, 2008 10:21 AM PDT
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You know what I probably do that trade. I under stand talent wise Xanthan is right . But that move gives the Giants an arm that should be able to soak up 150+ IP at the bottom of the rotation and SS that should be decent. ( wft is up with that home/way split? ) thus letting the Giants shift the Wanna Be Scrappy Infielders Brigade™ to second, third & back up middle infielders.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on
Oct 3, 2008 9:14 AM PDT
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