Josh Phelps/all CAAAAstoff team
by NeifiChicken
on Oct 15, 2008 4:38 PM PDT
Phelps just got cut by the Cards today, and I think this is the type of guy the Giants should be willing to give a look to. Phelps was once a highly touted prospect (Jays #1 prospect in 2002) and he has some pop while not being averse to walks. I don't know much about his defense at 1B, but he started out at a catcher so he must be athletic enough to play a decent 1B. This year in AAA Phelps posted a .291/.373/.568 line with 31 HR's and 56/109 BB/K ratio
Why not give this guy a shot? Ishikawa deserves a bit of a chance too, sure, but the Giants really need to give some guys like Phelps a look. This guy had plenty of promise before, and even managed some decent mlb seasons, why not give him a look?
Here's my list of castoff guys I'd like the Giants to give a look:
1) Dallas McPherson - Always had mammoth power and we have very poor 3B alternatives. Pablo??? I'd rather keep him at C and trade Molina, which shouldn't be too hard. Even hitting .240, McPherson could be a more productive hitter than Molina
2) Josh Phelps - I've already detailed why I like him
3) Chase Lambin - Nothing special here, but it seems like he's been blocked by star players (Reyes and Hanley) and the guy can play 3B-SS-2B and has a decent bat. Probably not a guy you'd want getting tons of at bats, but then again, who do we have at SS that we'd like to see getting at bats?
4) Bobby Scales - No, he's not a guy I think could do much with a starting gig, but seems like a nice guy to have off the bench. We have Eugenio, who is flawed but still has some use, so this is unlikely, but still, the guy posted a .415 OBP in AAA this year, which could really be useful. Just a seemingly deserving player that might be a productive bench player with a shot at the bigs
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I was thinking about this when I saw that he was cut this morning and was going to post it, but forgot about it seconds later. I want to see Ishikawa have a chance, but maybe Phelps could be 1B insurance.
by Natto on Oct 15, 2008 4:44 PM PDT 0 recs
I’ve always liked Phelps but you’re expecting the Giants to find potentially good value for a position that I don’t think they understand very well. This is the same team that was going to head into this year with Ort as their starting first baseman.
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by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 4:54 PM PDT 0 recs
oh definitely
Very few things I suggest I actually suggest the Giants do. Except when I’m being negative about the team of course
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 15, 2008 4:57 PM PDT
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second suggest
I meant to say “believe” and it’s missing a “will”
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 15, 2008 4:57 PM PDT
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"Going to head into the year with Ort as their starting first baseman."
Well it’s ok, Aurilia ended up being it!
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by WalrusMan on
Oct 15, 2008 8:42 PM PDT
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The big question
Is why does a guy with that slashline get cut ?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Oct 15, 2008 5:03 PM PDT 0 recs
Oh
Because he’s 30?
Probably worth a shot, however.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Oct 15, 2008 5:04 PM PDT
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not to mention
they have a pretty good 1B out in STL ;)
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 15, 2008 5:19 PM PDT
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You don’t happen to sell cars for a living do you? For some reason after reading your first two paragraphs I have the words “give him a look” permanently printed on my cerebellum.
My response: lets give him a look (emphatically)!
by Fresburg on Oct 15, 2008 5:04 PM PDT 0 recs
I don’t think Phelps is any better than Scott McClain, frankly. He’s got 1500 plate appearances in the majors and has hit .273/.343/.472, with terrible defense and baserunning, and he’s now on the wrong side of 30. He’s a little better than that against lefties, but still not as good as Rich Aurilia.
by Evan on Oct 15, 2008 6:57 PM PDT 0 recs
273/.343/.472 would make him the best Giants 1B since 2004.
He’s got defensive problems, but as a guy that you might sign to stash away in AAA, he’s a nice option.
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by xanthan on
Oct 15, 2008 7:48 PM PDT
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Someone has to play first base at Fresno, it’s true. Though I’d rather it were John Bowker.
Phelps would make a fine platoon partner for Ishikawa (or Bowker) — but again, Aurilia would probably make a better one.
by Evan on
Oct 15, 2008 8:12 PM PDT
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What's with the Aurilia love?
The guy was solid for us last year, but beyond being a popular player, I think we could find plenty of guys in AAA that could do just as good if not better, without the risk of a late 30s collapse.
As for McClain equaling Phelps, I don’t buy it at all. We’re talking about two completely different talent levels and ages
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 15, 2008 9:39 PM PDT
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Phelps vs lefties, career: .297/.364/.495
Aurilia vs lefties, 2005-08: .297/.365/.515
Which one do you want platooning with Ishikawa? Aurilia’s defense makes him an easy choice for me.
Phelps in AAA, 2005-08: .294/.363/.550
McClain in AAA, 2005-08: .276/.351/.525
Okay, Phelps is clearly better, but they’re in the same ballpark. McClain makes up some of the difference in the field; I don’t imagine anyone has ever contemplated putting Phelps at third.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 7:39 AM PDT
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not quite
a) Aurilia is turning 37 and is certainly no lock to repeat his year. Lest we forget his 2007 performance.
b) McClain and Phelps have some similar numbers, but Phelps is much younger and has a higher talent level than McClain. For me, it is much easier to believe a very talented player could more convincingly translate his minor league success into the majors than a player who’s been journeyman and has figured out AAA pitching. I don’t dislike McClain, in fact I prefer him to Aurilia, I just think Phelps is clearly the best bet of these 3.
Forget platooning as well, I’d give Ishi a chance, but I’d expect Phelps to be the everyday starter
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 16, 2008 9:26 AM PDT
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a) No one is ever a lock to repeat any year. That’s why you use multiyear averages to assess them.
b) Why do you say Phelps has “a higher talent level”? How would you prove that? McClain certainly looks like a better athlete. They were both late draft picks. Phelps got off to a quicker start in the minor leagues, but McClain caught up by their midtwenties. Last year they were virtually identical. Where’s the talent difference?
Not sure what exactly what you’re saying with your last sentence. Would you really rather have the 31-year-old starting at first than the 25-year-old who outhit him at AAA last year?
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:08 AM PDT
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PHELPS
Can he still catch? Having a guy who’s done it before would be useful behind Molina & Sandoval….
by aGIANTfan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:50 AM PDT
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a) Yes, but they are more likely to repeat years at 30-31 rather than 36-37
b) He was a former #1 ranked prospect by BA and actually had previous major league success. McClain hasn’t done much at all to garner any sort of love
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 16, 2008 10:52 AM PDT
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I’m pretty done seeing John Bowker play first.
Outfield or nothing.
by oldjacket on
Oct 15, 2008 11:24 PM PDT
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Hmm?
Phelps for all his flaws has a career OPS+ of 110, 280 EQA in 1152 MLB PAs, sure that’s nothing special for a 1b / DH with defensive and baserunning issues, but he’s also 6 years younger than McClain and Aurilia. What is the likelihood going into the future that McClain is going to be better than Phelps?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 16, 2008 12:45 AM PDT
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I don’t think age is particularly relevant, since Phelps is well past the days when you could argue he has unrealized potential and project him as a long-term solution. At this point, he’s a patch.
He should certainly be on somebody’s roster, and I wouldn’t mind if it was ours, but I’d hate to see him taking on anything other than a bench/platoon role, now that Ishikawa is back to looking like a legit prospect.
Of course, Sabean says Pablo Sandoval will be our first baseman, so maybe it’s moot.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 7:44 AM PDT
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I wouldn't say a patch..
But he’s not someone you get to expect to improve. It’s a Carlos Pena move. I’d say nearly as comparable, with less major league experience.
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by WalrusMan on
Oct 16, 2008 9:30 AM PDT
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Carlos Pena, okay. Not a bad comp. Pena has a much better glove, though.
Can Phelps have the breakout year that Pena did in 2007? They’re almost exactly the same age—five days apart—so Phelps is two years behind Pena’s (already extremely tardy) schedule.
Also, Pena was a high draft pick and a top prospect coming up. Lots of people thought he would one day become a superstar. I don’t recall anyone saying that about Phelps other than Baseball Prospectus.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
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I agree that he's a patch
I brought up age simply because agewise, he is less likely than McClain, or Aurilia, of becoming a patch that is actually a nail.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 16, 2008 9:59 AM PDT
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Yeah, if for some reason you want to sign one of them to a three-year contract, of course you go with Phelps. But for a one year deal, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. For the role I have in mind on the team, I’d take Richie’s defense & positional flexibility & superior athleticism & history with the team over Phelps’s age & superior production against righties.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:22 AM PDT
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BPro had a player profile on Phelps in 2006,
Baseball America rated him the #1 prospect in the Jays organization heading into the 2002 season, emphasizing his injury trouble and long swing – a swing that would keep his batting averages low and strikeout totals high – along with his power potential.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 16, 2008 10:29 AM PDT
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Never heard of Lambin or Scales, but they both look pretty decent. You could probably do worse (coughcastillocough) than picking one of those guys and handing him the third-base job.
by Evan on Oct 15, 2008 8:45 PM PDT 0 recs
You might want to see a doctor for that castillocough. I heard it leads to larger medical problems down the road like armandoitis and zitofever.
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by j14 on
Oct 16, 2008 9:18 AM PDT
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USSM just had a nice blurb on Phelps.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
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by xanthan on Oct 16, 2008 5:50 AM PDT 0 recs
the first comment on that post applies equally well to the Giants.
by oldjacket on
Oct 16, 2008 9:27 AM PDT
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Ehh, I dunno.
I’ve long been an advocate of Phelps, but I’m not sure it would be all that good of an idea for the Giants to sign Phelps, UNLESS, they are planning to contend next season, AND are planning to say, bring Sabathia back to SF, and get Furcal. In that case, a stopgap ~110-115 OPS+ patch at 1b at minimum wage would be a good idea, since there’s no way the Giants are going to be able to afford CC + Furcal + Teixeira / Dunn.
If the Giants are not planning to seriously contend, they should giving PAs to Ishikawa, and giving a real chance at either sinking or swimming. 25 as a prospect isn’t old, but it isn’t young either
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 16, 2008 10:23 AM PDT
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He meant this:
You know, this move would make sense. And that’s where it’s a problem for me. It kind of dawned on me that the M’s almost prefer players that can’t hit or can’t pitch. Oh yeah, and aren’t free either.
Which is soooooo true.
Completely agree with your diagnosis, though. Phelps would have been a great idea for last year, when we had nothing resembling a first baseman, and I think we even had another thread about him. This year, with Ishi & Sandoval on hand, he doesn’t really fit unless we’re spending big at other positions on the diamond.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:41 AM PDT
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100% of what Evan said.
I’m not a Phelps advocate. He’s such an extreme case of old players skills that he may actually be a worse bet to produce next year than players 7 years his senior.
by oldjacket on
Oct 16, 2008 8:01 PM PDT
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Why do you think Phelps would suddenly abruptly fall off the cliff?
“Old player skills” is a usefull abstraction, but it’s an abstraction, nothing more. Has Phelps gotten fatter? Picked up say injury with long term ramifications, say chronic knee or back or foot problems? Has his swing slowed down a lot?
And it isn’t simply that McClain is 6 years older. McClain has never shown an ability to hit in MLB.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 17, 2008 12:19 AM PDT
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"Old player skills" is a useful
abstraction, often because the player who possess such skills are big, sometimes somewhat fat, not athletic, slugger types; ie guys whose body starts breaking down more quickly than athletic types.
That doesn’t mean that everyone with that skillset is going to abruptly fall off a cliff.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 17, 2008 12:37 AM PDT
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I know that, but it does mean a lot of the players with that skillset will abruptly fall off. Phelps is one of the least athletic people I’ve ever witnessed play baseball, so he doesn’t have much to fall back if he loses any more of his athletic ability to old age. I wouldn’t be AGAINST signing him, but I think that he has an unusually high danger of collapse for a player of his age.
by oldjacket on
Oct 17, 2008 7:09 AM PDT
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Don’t we do the Josh Phelps thing every year?? And the reason we do it every year, is because some team cuts him loose every year. As mentioned before, he’s the same thing as Scot McClain, although McClain actually has slightly better numbers. The only thing Phelps has going for him is that he’s younger, although he’s hardly young. The Giants already have Sandoval, Ishikawa, Bowker, and Harper for first base, so if the alternative is not a notable upgrade like Mark Texeria, why bother?? Yes, I know Phelps is a righty, but isn’t this Bruce Bochy logic?? You have young guys here that should really get a look against all kinds of pitching, why doom them to a season of platooning?? And finally, Josh Phelps is dumb. Why? Because he took a minor league deal last year and signed with the Cardinals, although a couple of other teams might have been interested. Why would a right handed hitting first baseman sign with a team that has the best righthanded hitting first baseman in the game, one that is even younger than he is?? To me, he’s the second dumbest player in the game. The dumbest is Morgan Ensberg. Signed a minor league deal with the Yankees who had the best third baseman in the game because he wanted to play with a contender. The Yankees eventually dumped him of course. What did he turn down?? A minor league contract with the Giants, who had absolutely nobody to play third, and a MAJOR league contract with the Rays, who are only in the World Series. I know he would have eventually lost his job to Longoria, but he might have been kept around because he would have had a guaranteed salary. Nice move on his part.
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by rxmeister on Oct 16, 2008 7:07 AM PDT 0 recs
There was a lot of speculation that Pujols would have season ending surgery at some point during the season. Maybe he was hoping for that?
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by marcello on
Oct 16, 2008 10:04 AM PDT
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well, he signed with them before the season started. I’m not sure they were saying those things in spring training.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Oct 16, 2008 10:51 AM PDT
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Yeah, that’s true. I didn’t realize he signed way back in January.
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by marcello on
Oct 16, 2008 12:27 PM PDT
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i think ensberg was too cheap and too low risk/high reward for sabean. do you have a specific source saying the giants wanting to sign him to a minor league (or any other) deal? i believe i remember something about ensberg being able to get out of his yankee’s deal if another team offered him a major-league deal. as a backup at third, and first, i think he figured he’d get more ABs than he got with the yanks, and for a perennial contender at that.
i badly wanted the giants to go with players like ensberg and phelps at third and first last year. if they didn’t pan out, we end up with… rohlinger, bowker, ishikawa and sandoval? disaster!
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Oct 16, 2008 1:56 PM PDT
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It was a while ago, so I don’t remember exactly where I read that Tampa offered him a major league deal and SF offered him a minor league one, but I did come across the old story on 1/31 written by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, which said that Ensberg signed with the Yankees, and that the Rays and Giants had both “expressed interest.”
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by rxmeister on
Oct 17, 2008 7:03 AM PDT
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why all the love for Dallas McPherson? I don’t get it. His power would be killed at AT&T, and he’s just not that good. I’m also puzzled by the folks who want to trade Molina and have Pablo catch full time. His defense is not up to the task, and I’m head over heels for the guy.
by tyrannoman on Oct 16, 2008 10:28 AM PDT 0 recs
I think people that want to trade Molina only want to do it if the Giants can get good value in return. Preferably in the form of MI talent. Pablo’s bat plays the best at C and while his defense might be “in the works” Molina is no great defender himself.
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by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:29 AM PDT
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Forgot to add
I will give Molina credit, he did cut down his PB total this year but he’s at the age when catchers usually go poof.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
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by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:31 AM PDT
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he’s at the age when catchers usually go poof.
Heh..now I just have a image of him squatting back there going “poop.” Heh…
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by WalrusMan on
Oct 17, 2008 12:14 AM PDT
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I guess to me, it just seems like “trade Molina” seems to be just the flavor of the week. I think you’d have to get quite a bit in return to make that deal worthwhile. Molina isn’t the best catcher behind the plate, but he’s now awful. I think Pablo would be awful over the course of a full season (though still not as bad as Lazer).
by tyrannoman on
Oct 16, 2008 10:37 AM PDT
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I guess to me, it just seems like "trade Molina" seems to be just the flavor of the week.
Maybe, but unlike the TRADE CAIN nonsense, moving Molina actually makes sense. He’s coming off the best year of his career and the Giants have some depth at catcher. His contract isn’t expensive and the commitment is small. I think he’s got some trade value.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:39 AM PDT
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He’s coming off the best year of his career
Should be:
He’s coming off one of the best years of his career
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
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by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:40 AM PDT
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I don’t think that I would be feeling warm and fuzzy with Pablo and Steve Holm! as the catchers going into next year. There are always a slew of Charlie O’Brien defensive types on the FA market, so that’s not a huge deal, but still. I would want a lot back for Molina, because I believe he’s more valuable to the Giants’ than most other teams.
The Trade Matt Cain for anything with a pulse rumors are like sand in your swimsuit. Irratating to the point of driving you mad.
by tyrannoman on
Oct 16, 2008 11:02 AM PDT
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sell high? what’s wrong with you!?! that goes against the basic fundamentals of sabeanomics.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on
Oct 16, 2008 1:58 PM PDT
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Can we talk about Pablo’s defense? Do people really think he can’t learn to be a decent backstop? To me he seems infinitely more likely to make it there than at third.
by Evan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:42 AM PDT
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I think he could be able to make it at catcher, too. I think he made some strides in that department this year.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 10:43 AM PDT
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Not having seen him play in the minors, I can’t say if he’s improving or not. I will say, however, that I believe he has the tools to become at least league average and he has a damn fine arm. I’m not saying he can’t grow into the position, but I don’t think he’s ready to catch 120 games in 2009.
by tyrannoman on
Oct 16, 2008 11:00 AM PDT
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He caught 94 games last year across A+/AA/MLB levels. I think he could do 120 and with Sandoval, he can play time at 1B too if he needs a break.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
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by xanthan on
Oct 16, 2008 11:04 AM PDT
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exactly
having Pablo play any position but Catcher is really just a waste of Pablo. His entire value circulates around his ability to catch. As a 1B, he might be average at best. At catcher though, he could be a top 10 player
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 16, 2008 11:25 AM PDT
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Brian Sabean hasn’t done alot of smart things recently, but I think he really pats himself on the back for the Bengie Molina signing. He’s had two good years for the Giants, and his contract will expire just as Pablo Sandoval and/or Buster Posey should be ready to take over. Normally he signs players for at least two years too many. I think he’s going to hold on to Molina and would only trade him at the July deadline if the Giants’ are way out of it. It seems to me that his new boss is looking for immediate results, and trading his catcher and cleanup hitter (although of course he shouldn’t be) before his replacements are ready would not be a very smart move.
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by rxmeister on
Oct 17, 2008 7:07 AM PDT
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Why don't
you do yourself a favor and become an A’s fan. I mean really – this is THE GIANTS. They have no use for scrapheapy non-ballplayer lookin’ guys who can hit a bit and are cheap.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Oct 16, 2008 10:28 AM PDT 0 recs
Other than Jack Cust
the A’s haven’t exactly been signing players like Phelps recently either. They passed on Carlos Pena, and signed Shannon Stewart. They passed on Russ Branyan, and Phelps, and signed Emil Brown instead.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 16, 2008 10:31 AM PDT
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maybe not
but at least they would pretend to be interested.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Oct 16, 2008 2:29 PM PDT
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Cmon now that's not really fair
You’re naming a bunch of 1B/DH guys the A’s passed on for OFs.
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by iamawesomer on
Oct 16, 2008 3:24 PM PDT
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Those are the same players that the Giants
have no use for scrapheapy non-ballplayer lookin’ guys who can hit a bit and are cheap.
If it’s not fair to criticise for the A’s for passing on them, it’s equally unfair to criticise the Giants for them. Conversely, if it’s fair to criticise the Giants for passing on them, it’s equally fair to criticise the A’s for passing on them.
And of course, the we signed player X who can play some position, whereas the Custs / Penas / Branyans / Phelps etc are 1b / DHs, has long been used as an excuse for why the Custs / Penas of the world have trouble finding jobs. Never mind that player X, such as Emil Brown, is utterly worthless crap.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Oct 17, 2008 12:15 AM PDT
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You’re forgetting two things when you compare the Giants’ to the A’s. Number one, they shop in a different neighborhood than the Giants’ do. They scrape through garbage cans because of their budget, while the Giants’ shop at Macy’s. The only problem is that the Giants’ seem to find players in Macy’s that SHOULD be in the garbage can. And that leads to number two, which is that the A’s have a better GM than the Giants’ do. Brian Sabean is not going to look at a Josh Phelps at this time of year, because he has actual money to work with. It’s possible he would look at Phelps just before spring training or even during spring training if he’s still an FA, but usually players like that find a landing spot by then, and right now he has visions of Ryan Howard, Mark Texiera and Prince Fielder foolishly dancing in his big empty head.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Oct 17, 2008 7:14 AM PDT
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I am not (in this particular instance)
trying to claim the As method is better than the Giants.
Just sayin’ that signing guys like Phelps is something Sabean NEVER, EVER does. So why would he start now? I’m not even saying it’s because he’s an idiot. He’s just not geared fer it.
And besides, these “scrap heap” guys all get a fair amount of value from BBs, which I think we can presume to guess Sabes ignores.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Oct 17, 2008 10:40 AM PDT
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I agree with you. Sabean should start to sign these cut rate guys. They’re something to fall back on and they’re cheap enough so you can still work on improving the same position. He could sign someone like Phelps to a minor league deal, even while he’s working on someone like Texieira. Of course, even a Josh Phelps isn’t looking for just a minor league deal at this stage of the offseason. Players only take minor league deals after they’re convinced that nobody is going to offer them a major league one.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on
Oct 17, 2008 11:58 AM PDT
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I'd totally want Nelson Cruz
Except it looks like the Rangers have finally realised what they have.
by Salemicus on Oct 17, 2008 8:54 AM PDT 0 recs