Projection recap: Barry Zito

by Lyle on Oct 15, 2008 3:00 AM PDT

Grant tested the wisdom of crowds last March 11th when he invited us to predict Barry Zito's performance in 2008. Hard to believe, but he exceeded only one of our expectations - treating us much like he did Brian Sabean last year. To wit:

IP ERA K BB HR

Barry Zito 2008: 180 5.15 120 102 16

McCoven prediction: 202.2 4.42 129 88 24

IP(180): predictions ranged from 174(wcw) to 220(Cainer). Closest was kingofthacove with 178.2, followed by Lyle with 183 and wcw with 174.

ERA(5.15): The most optimistic guess was 3.68(giantsin2067), the most pessimistic was 6.15(kingofthacove). Congrats to Cookyman with a prescient 5.21 prediction (one of only two guesses above Barry's actual ERA).

K's(120): Cainer was the most bullish on Zito overall, with a high prediction here of 170 K's. kingofthacove was the most bearish overall, and he had the low prediction of 74. Genius points go to the pre-wedding xanthan who accurately predicted 120! This was the best prediction of the McCoven - Grant guessed 121, groug 118, GobearsGogiants 122.

BB's(102): Mea culpa - I pretty much screwed up our group wisdom on this one, predicting a ridiculous low 68 (to be fair, I was expecting 3-4 weeks on the DL for the Albatross). Cookyman had the highest guess of 110 (and tied for fourth closest). Howtheyscored takes the prize with a guess of 103. Also close: giantsin2067(99), raisingcain (96), and juanboy (94) and Cookyman (110).

HRA(16): Here's the only category Barry did better in than our projection (24). Lowest guess was Grant's 15; highest guess was Cookyman's 35. Lyle got it right with 16 (remember, I thought he'd miss 4-6 starts). Grant with 15 and Scottsdale with 18 were also very close.

Overall: It depends on how you might weight the categories. Grant only missed the K's by one and the HRA by one, but was way off on ERA (3.87). Lyle got the HRA correct, missed the IP by three, but way underguessed the BB (68). It's just my eyeball guess here, but I'd say best overall prediction goes to Cookyman, who was wildly high on HRA but very close everywhere else:

IP: Zito 180, Cookyman 190

ERA: Zito 5.15, Cookyman 5.21

K: Zito 120, Cookyman 112

BB: Zito 102, Cookyman 110

HRA: Zito 16, Cookyman 35!

Congratulations Cookyman - you win a free pass to xanthan's Stats Lair and 100 McCovey Bucks, redeemable at fine stores everywhere.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

Cookyman is obviously a time traveler from the future.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 6:03 AM PDT 0 recs

He’s the one who called Grant from 2007.

I knew it!

Fairley odd parent to Wendell

by WTF on Oct 15, 2008 7:48 AM PDT up 0 recs

I was wrong on everything

Just my luck to be a time traveler from the past.

by Moggeee on Oct 16, 2008 12:51 AM PDT up 0 recs

And thanks for putting these together, Lyle. I’ve been enjoying them!

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 6:03 AM PDT 0 recs

You’re welcome. I actually enjoy doing it.

Also, I meant to include the link to the original post.

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 15, 2008 6:21 AM PDT up 0 recs

I love E’s optimism!

Zito will have the worst season of his life.

Whatever happened to him?

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 6:28 AM PDT up 0 recs

RIP

Rest In Peeves

by Moggeee on Oct 16, 2008 12:54 AM PDT up 0 recs

His memory lives in our hearts and bile

E Ticket was by far our all-time most accurate and humorous cynic.

Go back and read his posts in that thread. He was prophetic:

Zito will have the worst season of his life.

…a team that is going to have to be extremely lucky to win more than 70 games

I think he’s out of the rotation by June (Remember the vacation?)

And if our troops are counting on him to raise money by striking guys out, I’d rather he make that offer to Al Qaeda.

What have you seen with your eyes that tell you Zito is going to be anything other than a pile of overpaid shit?

That’s some lively reading.

by Moggeee on Oct 16, 2008 1:22 AM PDT up 0 recs

Wow, I actually participated in this game? Doing it without my own knowledge and subsequently not sucking makes me awesome.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Oct 15, 2008 7:14 AM PDT 0 recs

Apparently I failed to participate. Weird! It’s almost like I had no hope for the season and little reason to care!

by Evan on Oct 15, 2008 7:18 AM PDT up 0 recs

link

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2008/3/11/103532/148

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 15, 2008 7:43 AM PDT 0 recs

for the record, I said he would suck a whole lot, and he was even worse than I thought.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 15, 2008 7:44 AM PDT 0 recs

Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil

by SoFa King Mike on Oct 15, 2008 7:59 AM PDT 0 recs

MadTV used to almost be funny.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 8:03 AM PDT up 0 recs

Almost.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 15, 2008 8:05 AM PDT up 0 recs

It’s weird how many of their cast members I like once they stop doing that show.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Oct 15, 2008 8:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

very true

good actors, terrible writers.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 15, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

not even close really

Rafael Rodriguez: More tools than Home Depot.

by BrianBokake on Oct 15, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up 0 recs

I am awesome.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 15, 2008 8:06 AM PDT 0 recs

Zips projection for 2008

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Barry Zito*               30   3.99  13  12  34  34   210.0  193   93  22   90  159

Wow, that would have almost been useful…

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 15, 2008 9:38 AM PDT 0 recs

PECOTA

Didn’t do much better:

Cookyman > Nate Silver.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 15, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up 0 recs

COOKYMAN KNOWS ALL.

ALSO, ISN’T ACTUALLY THAT COOKY.

#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Oct 15, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

Cookyman

Who do you pick for president?

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM PDT 0 recs

reply fail :(

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

You really want to waste your one question on that? OK.

/rolls magic 8-ball

Don’t count on it.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 15, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

I just want to see if you are better than Nate Silver ;)

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 15, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

IP: 195
ERA: 4.62
K: 118
BB: 88
HRA*: 22
SB*: 0

Yeah, it’s not gonna be a good year.

Hey Past Groug, this is actually overoptimistic. I’ll leave you alone to cry.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Oct 15, 2008 11:16 AM PDT 0 recs

You now know that we'll expect this from you every year

I’m normally not real big on making predictions. But if I’d known you would do this, I might have.

Hell, why not? Here are my retroactive Barry Zito predictions:

IP: 180
ERA: 5.15
K: 120
BB: 102
HR: 16

Man, I’m good.

Anagram of "Giants pitcher Matt Cain" = TRAGIC MAN, ISN'T PATHETIC

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Oct 15, 2008 11:26 AM PDT 0 recs

John

Anagram for retroactive prediction:

A Corrective Dopier Tint

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 15, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

Wow, Zito only allowed 16 homers. It sure felt like more.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ I & II

by Natto on Oct 15, 2008 11:47 AM PDT 0 recs

those were Pat Misch’s

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 15, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

In Soviet Russia, STATSLAIR visits you

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Oct 15, 2008 12:55 PM PDT 0 recs

Wow, I don't remember completely

but I’m pretty sure I was trying to exaggerate his crappyness when I did my projections

by kingofthacove on Oct 15, 2008 1:38 PM PDT 0 recs

Wow, I didn’t even remember participating at first.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Oct 15, 2008 4:27 PM PDT 0 recs

That's what she said...

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 15, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

nice

by Evan on Oct 15, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

she never said that

by Moggeee on Oct 16, 2008 12:58 AM PDT up 0 recs

lol

If Zito had a 1:1 K:BB ratio with 35 homers in 190 innings.. his ERA would be closer to 8 than 5.21

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Oct 15, 2008 7:16 PM PDT 0 recs

I don’t like Barry Zito the pitcher.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Oct 15, 2008 9:15 PM PDT 0 recs

or the male model

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 15, 2008 11:25 PM PDT up 0 recs