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How Brian Wilson Regularly Pitches

Star-divide

Brian Wilson inspires strong emotions.  Some think he is among the game's best closers, pointing to his being tied for second in the NL with 41 saves.  Others point to the seven times he gave up multiple runs despite only once pitching beyond a single inning of any game, saying he is inconsistent.

Perhaps both are right -- with the reason being that he's being misused.

When Brian pitched every day or every other day, he yielded only 8 earned runs in 34.2 innings, an ERA of  2.08.  He yielded runs in only 5 of his 35 such appearances. 

When he pitched every third day or longer, Brian gave up 24 earned runs in 27.2 innings, a very generous ERA of 7.81.  Brian yielded runs in 13 of 28 such appearances, pitching on the eighth day once and on the seventh five different times.

To make matters worse, the rust Brian showed after long periods between appearances seems to have carried over a bit into his second appearance after a long layoff.  In such games, he yielded 10 earned runs in 19.0 innings for a 4.74 ERA.

Brian's being a bit of a Jeckyll and Hyde pitcher may have had to do with whether he had been given too much rest to stay sharp or had merely pitched enough to remain sharp without being over-rested.  Brian never pitched more than three days in a row, and he did so only twice.

Overwork didn't appear to be a problem with Brian.  Lack of work may have been.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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You might be right but I don’t know if we have enough innings to make a real judgement. Although I think this is pretty hilarious. Anyone else have this?

Adopted Son: Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts

by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 11, 2008 2:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ah, the mirth I miss with adblocking.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 11, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep..

I laughed as well.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on Oct 11, 2008 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hang on, I’ll comment on this as soon as I’m done downloading “Wouldn’t it be nice” for $3.99

by FluLikeSymptoms on Oct 11, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brilliant

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Oct 11, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bravo sir. +109 for you

Adopted Son: Brad Hennessey. Beloved for a stolen base much like Dave Roberts

by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 11, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Small Sample

I agree the sample is small, but if I were Bruce Bochy I wouldn’t ignore it. Frankly I suspect most relief pitchers would perform better if they were allowed to pitch every other day or so. Naturally, game circumstances don’t fully allow that. But I think if managers made that more their goal — as opposed to slotting pitchers into boxes and trying to use them exclusively in those boxes — they would get better performance from their relievers — and fewer arm problems.

One of the biggest problems in baseball though is that there seems to be great fear of trying anything that goes against “the book.” IMO “the book” should be constantly be being rewritten and improved.

by sharksrog on Oct 11, 2008 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I absolutely agree, Roger.

Am I mad, in a coma, or back in time? Whatever's happened, it's like I've landed on a different planet. Now, maybe if I can work out the reason, I can get home.

by Lyle on Oct 13, 2008 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Billy Sadler

Can Sadler be the next SF reliever to have a bust out season?

by wilriv21 on Oct 11, 2008 3:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

if he stops giving up homers, he could. He has really good stuff.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 11, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

don’t forget the walks.
my god, the walks.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 11, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This applies to most Giants pitchers.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Oct 11, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Jekyll and Hyde

The letters BB conjure thoughts and memories that are both spectacular and horrifying.

Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.

by thehavenot on Oct 11, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So basically

Sadler can’t find the plate. And when he does find the plate, he gets hammered. But apart from that, he’s great!

by Salemicus on Oct 11, 2008 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sarcasm

Ain’t sarcasm great? But hopefully you DID notice that Billy has great stuff. You might not want to forget that the first half of 2007 Brian Wilson was horrible — in the minor leagues, no less.

by sharksrog on Oct 11, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Did not mean to change subject on your post but am hoping for the same improvement from Sadler that we recently witnessed with Wilson.

by wilriv21 on Oct 11, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

Billy Sadler is my favorite Giants reliever, so I too am hoping for a breakout from Billy next season. I’m not going to go so far as to predict it though. I did that only with Tim Lincecum. :)

by sharksrog on Oct 11, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sadler / Wilson...

One tangent to this thread: Billy Sadler and Brian Wilson have much in common. Both went to LSU – they were teammates. Both have great (not good – great) arms. Both have very aggressive approach. Both were considered talented but raw coming out of college (Sadler was drafted in the 6th round – Wilson in the 24th). Brian Wilson had Tommy John surgery early (during his senior year in college). Both were seen as projects that needed to harness their considerable talent. Wilson seems to have done it (although, at times, he still gives up too many walks). Sadler is still learning how to pitch – 27 walks in 22 IP is atrocious. For comparison, Tim Alderson gave up 34 BB in 145 IP in his first full year of Pro ball (high A). Yes, Sadler needs to throw strikes – but if he can learn to do this, he could be great.

The good news is this – the GIants may not have time to wait for Sadler to figure it out. They are inproving so quickly – Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Henry Sosa, Clayton Tanner, that someone with a great arm like Billy Sadler may not be good enough to make the Giants pitching staff in a year or two. Consider the fact that just two years ago, the Giants had pitchers named Matt Morris, Vinnie Chulk, Mike Stanton, and Jason Schmidt. It is easy to forget just how far the Giants have come.

by kar120c on Oct 12, 2008 6:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

they’re both pitchers.

Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.

by jasomack on Oct 12, 2008 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jason Schmidt was pretty good, wasn’t he?? The rest of your point was well taken, though. I was watching two idiots doing a pregame show near the end of the season, (I think one of them was named Murphy) and they were talking about an all time SF Giant rotation. They named the two no brainers, Marichal and Perry, and then seemed stumped for names. They finally came up with Krukow and Montefusco. Really?? Jason Schmidt wasn’t better than those two??

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Oct 12, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

All-Time Rotation

For a few years now I have had Juan, Gaylord and Jason in my all-time Giants rotation. No one really stood out as the fourth, although when pressed I came up with Mike McCormick, who until 2008 was the only SF Giant to win the Cy Young Award. :)

I’m not sure how long a guy has to be really good to make such an all-time rotation, but with his impending Cy Young Award (I have switched from Johan Santana to Tim as my likely winner, with Tim naturally being my own personal choice all the while), if Tim isn’t knocking on the door, he mist at least be somewhere in the house.

By the way, when it comes to guys who have actually PITCHED for the SF Giants, not how they have done as Giants, I would think the five-man rotation would be Marichal, Perry, Spahn, Carlton and a battle between Billy Pierce and Vida Blue.

Regarding Spahn and Sain, we know then fans prayed for Rain. Now it’s Lincecum and Cain; they keep us sane. (At least sort of)

by sharksrog on Oct 12, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually..

Lincecum and Cain drive us insane (with all the mock trade fanposts).

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on Oct 12, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Having watched Wilson throw 99+ with movement and rip some nasty sliders, I’m wondering just what a guy has to do to have a “great arm” in your book?

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Oct 13, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

I think you need to read his comment again.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops, I read it too fast. My bad!

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Oct 13, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know! I didn’t understand why Schmidt wasn’t in that rotation.

by AmorVincitOmnia on Oct 12, 2008 12:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Please check further

I don’t have time to check, but the main outlier I found when I was looking over his numbers is that he is horrible when pitching in non-save situations. Which are the situations he is in when he has a long number of days of rest and Bochy wants to give him SOME action of some sort. But perhaps there is another level of nuance.

So, to prove your point that he needs to be used every other day or so, to keep from going rusty, you would have to study his game results and see if it is really true (as much as small sampling of relievers is true; it’s already too small taking on their seasonal results, let alone using just a slice of that) that long rest is the culprit, by splitting the long rest games into two stat lines, save and non-save situations.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 13, 2008 8:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think your samples would get too small to really say anything..

It makes sense that, with inconsistent use a relief pitcher would struggle.

Combine that with the results Sharksrog has observed and that constitutes a great hypothesis.

Alas, we will probably never get to do the experiment.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 13, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it’s a chicken-and-egg thing. I’ve been buying the non-save thing until reading this post, but think logically the “too much rest” thing might make more sense since it’s an actual physical thing as opposed to mental thing.

Wilson has said he likes to go in and throw as hard as he can. If he’s pitching more regulalrly, it would stand to reason that he kinda stays “warmed up” as opposed to having to ramp it up after a few days off. When you remember that Wilson is going in there for just one inning and is really into fitness, I think getting rusty is more problematic than wearing fatigue.

Pretty much true in any sport; if you’re doing it at least every other day (without reaching exhaustion), you tend to perform better than if you take 3 or 4 days off.

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Oct 13, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Totally

It makes perfect sense. The more you pitch, the better you will be (short of fatigue).

We made this observation about halfway through the season, and it doesn’t seem to have changed.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Oct 13, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it is unfortunate that saves have the bargaining leverage that they do, while more indicative peripheral stats are given far less weight. Were this the other way around, I think more Managers (not big head, though) would be wiling to buck the current ‘closer’ managerial groupthink. Right now, it is saves that get you big money as a reliever, so some elite relievers would be hesitant about being used in non-save high leverage situations, thus lessening the potential earnings.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Oct 13, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scott Eyre always said the same thing.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 14, 2008 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're partly right

Looking at Brian’s 16 non-save situations last season, he yielded one run in 6.2 innings over seven appearances when he pitched every third game or more frequently. He was scored upon in only one of the seven games. In his nine non-save appearances last season in which he pitched every fourth day or less frequently, he yielded 12 earned runs in 7.1 innings over nine appearances.

So you are absolutely right that Brian pitched his worst in non-save situations — but the shorter rest benefit still seems to apply. Brian is at his best in short-rest situations, regardless of whether a save is on the line or not. He is at his worst when he is pitching on long rest AND no save is involved.

But he still pitched poorly with long rest when saves WERE involved.

I put together a pattern — one I had mentioned at mid-season when I first discovered this phenomenon with Brian — which said he would pitch no more than two days in a row but would pitch at least every third day. Had he followed that schedule, he would have made 11 more appearances - and missed only two save opportunities. That’s two out of 47. We don’t know for sure, but he likely would have pitched better. And with a more even workload, he could have thrown more innings (although I would have endeavored to use him for perhaps only one or two batters in non-save and two or three-run situations).

To me, more and better while giving up only two save opportunities is a no-brainer. (And it is no-brainers for which I am particulary well qualified. :)

After Brian was called back up in 2007, the Giants DID use him on a schedule very similar to that. He was used in both save and non-save situations. He yielded runs in only three of something like 18 appearances.

There is no way to know for sure if this would work better or not. But given that the Giants aren’t going to be competitive next season anyway, why not give it a try? If it works, Brian could be of even more value in the next decade when it should really matter. If it doesn’t work, what harm has been done?

Not only that, but if it works for Brian, there is the possibility it will also work for other relievers. It may be that the more regular the work they can receive, the better MOST of the relievers will be. And if the relievers become better, not only will they likely do their set up work better in order to provide Brian a few more save opportunities, but on the rare occasions when they have to save a game instead of Brian to preserve his workload, they should be even better prepared to do the job.

To me it appears to be a win, win, win situation. And more winning would be a good thing these days. In about three seasons, those numbers of wins will actually MATTER!

by sharksrog on Oct 13, 2008 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure

I’m not sure what I did to form the line above, but I didn’t intend to eliminate or replace any of the words with the line through them.

by sharksrog on Oct 13, 2008 5:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Last season

Last season Brian Wilson did his best pitching in non-save situations with short rest, closely followed by save situations with short rest. Save situations with long rest were a distant third, with non-save situations with long rest bringing up the rear.

That pattern would seem to indicate that both short rest and save situations benefited Brian — but in that order.

Arguably Brian’s worst save, the game he blew to the Dodgers the last Friday night of the season, yielding two of the seven home runs he gave up on the season, came on the fifth day after his previous performance.

To me, it would be intriguing to see how Brian performed on a schedule of pitching no more than two days in a row and of pitching at least every third day. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

by sharksrog on Oct 13, 2008 6:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

No one

No one has ever agreed with me 100% before. Not even my wife. Well, except for when I told her she was too good for me. :)

by sharksrog on Oct 14, 2008 12:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

we poke fun, but I think a lot of us were 100% with you on the “Tim Lincecum is golden god” thing.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Oct 14, 2008 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno about you..

But I myself don’t have a shrine in my closet to him made of a football and various fruit.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
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by WalrusMan on Oct 14, 2008 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

why

what IS your shrine made out of?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 14, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be honest

To be honest, I don’t think Tim Lincecum IS a golden god. But he is similar to Willie Mays as a player in that he’s both really good and one heck of a lot of fun to watch. When those two guys played, it is/was as if I myself were playing.

by sharksrog on Oct 14, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

need second closer

Rog makes a great case, I’d love to see it tried.
Maybe another reason managers have a problem with rog’s idea is, what if you need a closer 3 days in a row, and Brian is due for a day off? So the system works better if you have 2 or 3 guys who can competently close. I could see Romo closing. And Sadler if he gets over those minor issues he has.
(they kinda did this in the days of Lavelle and Minton and Holland in early 80s. Except we sucked then also, but for other reasons)

adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson

by foothillsfan on Oct 14, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points

Good points all around here, Foothill. Surprisingly, when I ran Brian’s season after his first appearance using him no more than two days in a row and pitching him at least every third day, I found him missing only two save opportunities.

To me, there are five main types of saves.

The first is the one-inning or less three-run save — the one where the tying run is in the hole when the pitcher enters in the ninth or the bottom half of an extra inning. Since the injury to Robb Nen, the Giants have used a handful of guys who were quite capable of completing these easy saves a high percentage of the time.

The second is the one-inning or less two-run save — the one in which the tying run is on deck when the pitcher enters in the ninth of bottom half of an extra inning. Again, the Giants have shown that it doesn’t really take a great closer to complete these saves consistently.

The third is the one-inning or less one-run save. Here the potential tying run is always at the plate when the closer pitches, even closer than that to circling the bases or has already circled the bases and blown the closer’s save. I wouldn’t say these saves are exceptionally difficult, but they’re certainly not easy, either. A closer who can consistently secure over 80% of these saves is usually pretty good.

The fourth is that rarity, the multi-inning save. Depending on the score, these saves can be anywhere from difficult to rather easy. But I would rather use my closer for a two-inning, one-run save than “waste” him on a three- or probably even a two-run, one-inning save.

The fifth is the most difficult, where the tying run is already on base. The most difficult, of course, is potential tying run on third, potential winning run on second and no outs.

I think baseball could improve itself if it developed a point system for saves. To be fair, it would probably be good to award points for holds and in the late innings, even for maintaining a tie. Such a system might wake a manager up to the value of how he is using his closer.

IMO, if a closer needs work, use him for the three-run save. If not, don’t waste him. The decision on the two-run save may depend in part on which hitters are coming up. Use the guy for the one-run or tougher saves — maybe even pitching him three days in a row on rare occasions — but don’t waste him so much on the easy saves.

Right now, closers just want to build their save totals. If relief efforts were awarded points in more concert with the actual value of those efforts, perhaps closers in particular would be used more judiciously.

It is conceivable that the best time to use a “closer” would be in the sixth inning of a tie game or with a one- or two-run lead — with no outs in the SIXTH inning. That may turn out to be the game’s true “critical moment.” Put the wrong pitcher into that situation, and you likely won’t have a win for the closer to close.

If a team truly wants to specialize as the use of set up men and closers implies, go to five starters, five finishers and two closers.

Pair up a starter with a finisher, having the finisher be as much of a complement to the starter as possible. Ideally, for instance, a right-handed power pitcher such as Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain would be paired with a lefty Kirk Rueter type. The hope would be that once the starter left the game, the finisher could indeed finish the game out. If troubles developed, either the left-handed closer or the right-handed closer could close out the game as appropriate. Both could be used if necessary.

Every pitcher on the staff would have a defined role, each would get fairly regular work, starters would be motivated to perform well, lest they switch roles with their finisher, finishers would be motivated to pitch well to get in as much work as possible and perhaps get promoted to starter, and closers could indeed clean up the messes the finisher made.

Opposing lineups might well get turned around during the game when a lefty replaced a righty (or vice versa), and the potential would be to turn the lineup around twice if the starter, the finisher AND the closer were used. If BOTH closers were used, the lineup could theoretically be turned around three different times.

My point is that there are several ways to think outside the box. In sports such as football, basketball and hockey, they say the best coaches are the ones who can put in systems that best utilize their personnel, regardless of the natures of said personnel. Does it make sense to use the same old system for all 30 baseball teams — or would at least some of the teams benefit from at least examining some more creative approaches?

Baseball has changed a LOT over the years. Pitchers once pitched over 600 innings in a season. Now no one pitches HALF that many frames. But baseball has been slow to change the way it uses its pitchers — and once a pattern is developed, that pattern is used by virtually every team for a long time. Isn’t it about time baseball began thinking of more creative ways to use its pitchers? It often doesn’t use its best pitches at the most important time — and yet arm injuries abound, indicating the patterns in which pitchers are used may be far from optimal.

And to the benefit off the Giants, the teams that can best risk experimenting with changes are teams that aren’t in contention. If the experiment fails, so what? A better draft choice the next season? And if it succeeds — even partially — the result could provide the edge the team needs when it becomes competitive to take that competitiveness all the way to a winning World Series.

Which is better? To go by the book — or to rewrite it with positive changes and effective options?

by sharksrog on Oct 15, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roger.

I know this site has some doozies, but I personally have never read a longer post. It’s not about you, it’s about me: My attention span. But I like your stuff, and I did read this one — though, surveying it beforehand, I thought it might intrude on my farting around time. And then I plowed through it, and I’m proud. Yet I am out of condition for this, and breathless. I’m pretty sure a question was asked at the end.

But leave me alone for a while. I’m resting now.

by Moggeee on Oct 17, 2008 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think!

Think how I felt after I wrote it! :)

by sharksrog on Oct 17, 2008 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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