So, the new hot thing around here is the reformation of the Giants team.  Trades and such.  But I want to talk about four more years.  I want to talk about this team and how it will do as currently constructed (MINUS MOTHEFUCKING DENKER. FUCK YOU SABEAN, YOU STUPID FUCK).  Anyways, yeah…

Basically, what I’m doing here is trying to estimate what we’ll get at each position assuming we make no moves this offseason.  Assume rose-tinted glasses and such.  However, I honestly don’t know how to translate a line into VORP, RC, or anything else, so this is my best estimate.  I’m even worse doing that with defense, so again just estimates.  Partly, I’m hoping someone can explain to me a little how to do it.  The more statistically inclined please give feedback/criticism/tear me to shreds (Anyone can give feedback, just stick to your strengths).  Any criticism will be met peacefully if it’s backed up with evidence/support.  The +/- here are just the difference in runs from 2008 to 2009.  10 runs is ~1 win.

Offense/Defense:

C: Bengie: -5/-5 – Just a natural, slight offensive and defensive decline.

1B: Ishikawa: +10/+10 – 1B was a disaster offensively and defensively in 2008.  I honestly think these projections are conservative compared to what we got.

2B: Frandsen: -10/+10 –Frandsen can’t replicate Durham offensively but he can make up for it some defensively.  The overall +- might be a little optimistic.

3B: Sandoval: +10/0 – I realize Sandoval probably won’t get the bulk share at 3B, but I guess he might.  Regardless, this was another fucking wasteland for the 2008 Giants and if they can’t do better than this, shame on them.

SS: Burriss: +20/-10 – Burriss should be a huge upgrade offensively at SS (and that’s not saying much) but Vizquel and Ochoa were amazing defensively.

LF: Lewis: +5/-5 – Small improvements offensively and a small step back defensively.  

CF: Rowand: 0/-5 – Defensively this year was out of line, I’m expecting some regression.

RF: Winn: -5/-5 – More a playing time concern than an actual regression.  I assume Schierholtz will take some of his playing time (along with some of the playing time of Lewis and Rowand).

4th OF: Schierholtz: +5/0

Offense/Defense Total: +30/-10

O/D Total: +20

Pitching:

Lincecum: -5 – Some regression.  I’d like to believe he’ll just get better, but the safe bet is the other way.

Cain: +5 – Slight improvements (every offseason I’m perpetually optimistic for him to turn into an ace and I’m hoping +20).

Zito: +10 – Hoping he keeps his velocity up for the whole 2009 season, and that the correlation of the velocity gain in the 2nd half with the improved pitching continues (thanks WalrusMan).

Sanchez: +5: I would expect small gains, but he has the possibility to break out so I think this is conservative.

5th: +5: Our fifth starter was fucking terrible all year, it will be better this year and there is the potential that it will be much better.

Pitching Total: +20

Total Total: +40

Clearly, I'm ignoring bench and bullpen here, but those are pretty finicky beasts that are slaves to random fluctuation.  It's probably not worth it to try and predict something so random.

2008 Record: 72-90 (pythag: 1st: 68-93, 2nd: 71-91, 3rd: 70-92)
2009, No-changes, marcello projected record: 76-86

Opinions please.