"It's not even close"

by travisam on Oct 10, 2008 6:00 AM PDT Comment 22 comments

Hey everyone, just thought I would pass this along.

I live in Des Moines Iowa, and we have 3 umpires from here in town that are all top notch MLB umpires. All 3 of them have worked, or are still working the playoff's this year. 2 of them, Tim Mclelland of the George Brett pine tar HR fame, and Eric Cooper have a radio show here in town on Thurs. nights called "Ump's Eye View". They talk about all sorts of stuff in the game, and take calls.

Anyway, I called in last night and told them I was a big Giants fan and wanted to know who their pick for NL Cy Young award was. Cooper started to say something, and Mac jumped in and said "It's not even close." He said "Tim Lincecum, and it's not even close." He said he talked to 3 of his other umpire friends that worked Timmy this season and that he was the best pitcher they saw all year. Anyway, I thought that was cool as umpires get a closeup of every single pitch that every pitcher throws. Let's hope the voters see the same thing!!

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Very cool

thanks for sharing

Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!

by j14 on Oct 10, 2008 9:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Awesome

I hope the voters voted like the umpires!

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 10, 2008 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

not that any of the umpires could actually see Lincecum pitch as they are either blind or were watching a different ballgame.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 10, 2008 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

High levels of quality right there

Down in Front Meat!

by homerdrew415 on Oct 10, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve already seen one Sporting News article from a BBWA idiot saying he was going to vote for Santana. =/

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 10, 2008 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

At least Santana is a worthy choice, unlike Brandon Webb.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
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by Natto on Oct 10, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t be too upset if Santana won.

by chilibean_3 on Oct 10, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would be

It pisses me off that they only start really considering ERA the most important stat when a pitcher from New York leads the league.

by boonitez on Oct 10, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t recall Santana getting much hype for the award until late in the season. They are pretty close in a lot of stats with strike outs being the only real advantage for Tim. It is a big advantage, though.

by chilibean_3 on Oct 10, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More worthy than you might think

I too liked Johan Santana much better as the runner up for the Cy Young Award — until I saw that his FIP was 3.51 compared to Brandon Webb’s 3.28. Of course, the ultimate winner (hopefully, and my confidence that he will be is growing by leaps and bounds due to a couple of polls having him 14-4 over Santana and a fan-based poll with him ahead 271-74 — with 15 votes for Webber) has a sparkling FIP of 2.62 — which matches his ERA exactly.

Anyway, Tim is way ahead of the other two — but there isn’t as much difference between Santana and Webb as I thought. Like Tim, Brandon was really good at limiting extra base hits.

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whereas

Whereas Johan Santana yielded 23 homers alone (more than double Tim’s 11).

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, in a fair world it's clearly between Tim and Johan

And I actually think it’s close it’s not fair to use predictive stats like FIP for awards like CY. I am not so glued to the DIPS bandwagon that I won’t give credit for Johan “doing his job” i.e, lower RA.

Santana is slighly ahead on expected wins (16.8 to 16), Tim ahead on SNVA (4.7 to 4.4), as well as relative value to replacements. Tim was hurt much more by his relievers, giving him a better fair RA (actual RA are super close). Santana is ahead on VORP, slightly, but Tim ahead on RA+.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIP

Normally I wouldn’t pay that much attention to FIP in evaluating pitchers. But the difference is SO big between Tim and Johan that I think it becomes sort of a “one pitcher was clearly better; the other, luckier” thing.

by sharksrog on Oct 11, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh, he’s only worthy in regards to ERA and innings. For Cy Young, what do you want:

1) The pitcher who gave up the least earned runs over the most innings. (Santana)
2) The pitcher who had the best peripherals over a legit amount of innings. (Lincecum)

It’s certainly not a slam dunk case. Personally I can see both sides of the argument, although I’m personally all about Lincecum.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Oct 11, 2008 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I’m definitely big on Lincecum too. I was just mentioning that I would understand if Santana were chosen.

by Natto on Oct 11, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A runaway

I truly think it’s a runaway. Here’s why (and I’m probably forgetting a few things):

FIP — Tim 2.62, Johan 3.51

BA — Tim .221, Johan .232

SLG — Tim .316, Johan .362

OPS — Tim .612, Johan .648

HR — Tim 11, Johan 23

Random — Tim pitched 7 1/3 fewer innings than Johan, yet gave up 24 fewer hits — half of them home runs. And Tim gave up that large number of fewer hits despite a .312 BABIP compared to Johan’s .278 BABIP. Tim was a little unlucky, and Johan was a little lucky — and STILL Tim yielded 24 fewer hits.

K — Tim 265 (just two short of Christy Mathewson’s best and seven ahead of Christy’s second-best season), Johan 206.

Hitters — If one took a vote of NL hitters, I’m virtually certain Tim would win — and likely by a large margin.

An aside — Tim relied so little on his fielders’ making great plays behind him on the season that while my first thought when Bruce Bochy announced that he was starting “You-JEAN-ee-oh” in left field in Tim’s third-last start was that Eugenio wasn’t a very good outfielder, my second was that Tim had required an unusually small number of defensive plays behind him.

Bequeathed runners — Tim received slightly over three runs’ less bullpen support than Johan, leaving him with a fair run average of 2.75 compared to Johan’s 2.86. Johan won the ERA title only because he received better run support (and Bruce Bochy, trying to get more right-handed hitting in a lineup weak against southpaws, played an inexperienced left fielder who clearly cost Tim two “earned” runs).

Clutch (Runners in scoring position) — Tim .167/.240/.266/.505, Johan .232/.299/.343/.642.

Clutch (Close and late) — Tim .210/.288/.290/.578, Johan .269/.296/463/.758.

Tim just has too many edges and blows Johan away in too many categories for it to truly be close. Look at the HUGE difference in close and late situations. With runners in scoring position. In home runs. Naturally in strikeouts.

There aren’t really all that many areas in which Johan was better (Walks clearly was one.), and the most important of those — ERA — seems to involve a bit of luck (bullpen support, Eugenio Velez, BABIP).

The two polls I have seen have Tim winning 14-4 and 271-74. I was surprised the voting wasn’t closer, but it would appear I’m not the only one who sees how good Tim is. (I merely saw it earlier than most. :)

by sharksrog on Oct 11, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

link?

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 10, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll look when I get home

I am at work and reserve my fooling around time to here! =p

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 10, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was Davidoff from Newsday

A couple of things: Based on Davidoff’s blog, I am not sure if the BBWA only lets their members vote for one award, or if they get to vote on all of the BBWAA awards. Also, it appears that he changed his pick for NL CY from Santana to Lincecum.

http://blogs.trb.com/sports/baseball/blog/2008/10/midday_reading_7.html

by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 11, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for sharing this.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Oct 10, 2008 1:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dominance

To get a grasp of how much more dominant Tim Lincecum was this season than even Johan Santana, Tim struck out 32.2% of batters who had an at bat against him. Johan struck out 23.2%.

On a per at bat basis, Tim was 39% more likely to strike out a hitter than Johan was. That Tim had 29% more strikeouts than Johan (265 to 206) was in itself quite impressive. That Tim struck out nearly 40% more batters per at bat is even more dynamic.

I don’t necessarily think the Cy Young Award should go to the guy with the most strikeouts. But that is merely one more area in which Tim blew away Johan.

Johan had a great season. Tim’s was clearly even better.

Just ask the NL hitters. Or as this post had as its original premise, the umpires. I would say those two groups got a fairly close look. :)

by sharksrog on Oct 12, 2008 12:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And another thing

One more area in which Tim Lincecum dominates Johan Santana. Tim induced 27 double plays to just 12 for Johan. Brandon Webb is of course one of the top ground ball pitchers in baseball and I believe led the NL with 30 twin killings.

In particular, Tim’s three off-speed pitches are tough to square up and result in a fair number of ground ball outs. When he doesn’t have exceptional movement on his fastball but is placing it well, that can also be a ground ball pitch. If he is placing it well and DOES have exceptional movement, it may be more likely to result in a strikeout.

by sharksrog on Oct 12, 2008 12:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs