HOF
Former Giant Goose Gossage was elected to the Hall of Fame today. He joins Giants greats like Steve Carlton, Duke Snider, and Warren Spahn.
If Gossage didn't hit the cockpit canopy after ejecting during a mock Naval dogfight with George Gervin, he'd still be alive today, so this must be extra sweet for his family.
Keeping in mind that I'm more of a "big Hall"-guy than one who thinks only the greatest of the great should get in, here's my top-10 list of eligible players who should be in the Hall:
- Ron Santo
- Mark McGwire
- Tim Raines
- Bert Blyleven
- Bobby Grich
- Alan Trammell
- Lou Whitaker
- Ted Simmons
- Jack Morris
- Jim Kaat
Those are the only three that I'm really passionate about, but a case can be made for all of the ten. Since the HOF is an independent organization from MLB, I'd also put Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson in.
Your HOF-picks, if you would....
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Re: HOF
- Jack Morris
- Andre Dawson
- Mark McGwire
- Jim Rice
- Ron Santo
by BuffyLaCoss on Jan 8, 2008 12:19 PM PST reply actions
Re: HOF
by One Flap Down on Jan 8, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
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No seriously, Morris is garbage, so are Rice and Dawson (garbage for the Hall that is).
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by victor frankenstein on Jan 8, 2008 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
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-Morris never finished in the top-4 in ERA.
-Never had an ERA under 3.
-Never had a WHIP less than 1.16.
By all accounts, Morris was a very good pitcher. HOFers should be dominant, not very good.
by One Flap Down on Jan 8, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
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Careera ERA+: 105
Now, ERA can be misleading, but this is over 3800 innings, I'd say it's an accurate description of his skill.
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by victor frankenstein on Jan 8, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
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Conclusion: Jerome Williams is Hall of Famer.
by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 9, 2008 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
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No on Katt, Morris. Rice... eh, my standards for OFs are pretty high.
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Tim Raines should be in. I think he might be after voters get over their first-ballot-itis.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 8, 2008 12:37 PM PST reply actions
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Hmm, maybe he was the bridge from Gossage and Sutter to the modern day closer?
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Plus Hoffman just broke Smith's saves record last year and I think Hoffman will get HOF consideration when his turn comes up. So maybe now that Gossage and Sutter are in, Smith will get more consideration.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 9, 2008 9:54 PM PST up reply actions
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by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Jan 8, 2008 12:56 PM PST reply actions
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by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 8, 2008 7:03 PM PST up reply actions
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by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 8, 2008 9:49 PM PST up reply actions
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I wanted Gossage and now support just Dawson and Raines, although I could be talked into Smith.
Same here
So Goose was a no-brainer in my opinion, and the only other one of those is Raines. I'm also big on Dale Murphy (2 MVPs) and Blyleven (inconceivable that he's not in).
McGwire is a really tough call, when he started juicing is completely significant.....did he start in 1988 and transform what would have been a Kingman-like career? Personally I don't think so, and he basically gets my vote.
by Stoned Slacker on Jan 8, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
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Also, I'd like a sip of whatever the two voters who voted for Travis Fryman were drinking.
Re: HOF
Rice and Trammell make an interesting comparison. They were more or less contemporaries, played in the same league, had about the same number of at-bats (Rice in 200 fewer games), and had exactly the same career OBP.
The differences between them:
- Rice hit about 14 home runs per season more than Trammell.
- Rice had one great high-profile season, so he won an MVP.
- Rice played in the best hitter's park in baseball, Trammell in a pitcher's park.
- Trammell was a gold-glove shortstop, Rice a mediocre-at-best left fielder.
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Looking at advanced stats that take outmaking into account (like RC/27), Rice created 12-15 runs per season more than Trammell. I don't know exactly how to value the defense of a good shortstop vs. a bad left fielder, but it's go to be more than 12-15 runs.
I'll also note that Trammell got called up early (age 19) and played a long time (till he was 38). He was pretty terrible during the first two years and last two years he played. If you trim off those seasons to make the comparison to Rice more exact, Trammell's numbers improve a bit.
Re: HOF
You can't make a blanket statement like that about Fenway, or any park for that matter. I saw many games at Fenway in the '80s while going to school in Boston. Fenway actually hurt Rice as a hitter. Rice was a line drive hitter. I saw many balls hit off the monster by Rice that would have been HRs or extra-base hits in other parks that were only singles in Fenway.
If Dave Winfield is in then Rice should be too. Compare Winfield's first 16 seasons with Rice's 16 season career. They are very similar with Rice having slightly better numbers. The only difference between the 2 are the 7 additional seasons by Winfield where he put up very mediocre numbers that were HOF worthy only in that they padded the totals.
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You know that they keep records about things like this, right?Career, Rice hit .320/.374/.546 at home, .277/.330/.459 on the road. Since Fenway was hurting him all that time, he must have really liked mom's home cooking or something.
I don't like the "If X is in then Y should be too" approach, but Rice was nowhere near the player Winfield was. Winfield was a multiple gold-glove winner and superb baserunner. Their hitting stats are very similar, even though Winfield played in a much tougher environment.
Re: HOF
But if Yankee Stadium is the "much tougher environment" you refer to, it is interesting to note that Winfield didn't hit very well there. You remember Steinbrenner's "Mister May" remark of course.
At Yankee Stadium:
Winfield - .286 BA, .834 OPS
Rice - .336 BA, 1.047 OPS
In the 2 stadiums where they played the majority of their games, Rice out hit Winfield in both.
Re: HOF
How Rice hit in Fenway is irrelevant. What matters is how EVERYONE hits in Fenway. What matters is the value of runs (and components, hits, walks, outs, etc.) under the conditions Rice did what he did.
So, if Rice had the same stats, but with home and road reversed, he would still have (roughly) the same VALUE summed. That's probably not clear but without real numbers:
Real Rice: Worth say X runs at home and Y runs on the road (X might be equal to Y, or it might be higher or lower.
Bizarro (white?) Rice: Worth Y runs at home and X on the road.
Now - since Fenway plays as a hitters park, Xhome has LESS value than Xroad, but Yhome has more value than Yroad, so X+Y is still roughly the same.
Since his career's over - you are not trying to predict what he WOULD DO but rather gauge the value of what he did do.
This is not to say that you don't have to correct for his park - you do - but it doesn't really matter how he hit where - just that you dink him OVERALL by 5% or whatever for playing half his games in a hitters park.
Alternatively, you can dink his HOME stats 10% (this, like the 5% is made up, I don't know Fenway's actual park factors in the 80s), and sum them with his road stats unmodified.
Luckily you don't have to do either - just use OPS+.
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But it's probably the greatest doubles park ever, and since there's usually more doubles than home runs, more than makes up for the difference.
Left handed line drive pull hitters will get plenty of doubles in the corner, and also some cheap home runs that just curl around the Pesky Pole. You see those all the time.
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You're right about the doubles though. Point taken. Although there aren't that many down the 3b line, or to left for that matter, unless you've got some speed in the batter's box.
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He'd make it if mine were a Spinal Tap list. I also tend to overemphasize longevity and durability for pitchers.
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 8, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
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Re: Santo?
Re: Santo?
He is very impressive only when you look at the other third basemen in the hall (not too many), and when you compare his numbers to that of his peers. Santo put up a career OPS 93 points higher than the league OPS. Matt Williams only exceeded the league's OPS by 55 points.
I think it's enough for Santo to get in, but I understand the initial skepticism.
Re: Santo?
OPS+ isn't perfect, but Santo is at 125 and Williams is at 112, which is a pretty big difference considering both guys were very good defensive third basemen and Santo's career is about 400 games longer.
Furthermore, Matty was a pretty good third baseman. He's not a Hall of Famer, but if he could have stayed healthy past 30, he wouldn't have been far off being a Hall of Famer, even with the crappy OBP. So Santo being significantly better makes him one of the best half-dozen third basemen ever.
Not quite sure where to put this
by cud1 on Jan 8, 2008 1:57 PM PST reply actions
Bert Blyleven ...and
The Hawk
Big Mac
Lee Smith
Not in that order.
I prefer each HOF class to be worthy of being in the HOF. We can have a few years where nobody gets in and I'd be just fine with that. If Jack Morris gets in, they might as well let Matt Morris in too.
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Lee Smith. The Baron said it best.
I would not quibble of Blyeven at all.
Santo. Look at Santo's contemporizes in both leagues. If it seems hard replacing Pedro this year just think if you were not one of the lucky 5 clubs in the 60's with a top tier third base man. If a person wants to quibble about his numbers then weight the fact for 17 years he has been doing Cubs games and is keenly identified with that franchise. Considering it is a founding N.L. franchise that is an accomplishment of note. Just bronze a toupee while they are at it please.
Raines I only quibble with a bit. Outfielders tend to real hard for me settle were the line should be exactly.
Big Mac does not make it to me. Rice was more feared and stood out more from his contemporizes and if he is not making it I can't justify Big Mac.
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IBB isn't all that useful a stat anyway when, for the most part, it has so much to do with whomever is batting in front of, and behind the player. Barry Bonds would not have had the IBB numbers he did if he had had someone with better OBP in front of him.
Cal Ripken and Robin Yount both had IBB rates worse than Rice's.
To show how misleading it can be McCovey's IBB rate was almost double that of Mays: 32/AB vs 57/AB.
Re: HOF
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In fact, what you say about Mays stopping or staying at 1st supports that point. McCovey would have had even more IBBs if Mays had played it differently. Maybe Jim Rice had someone hitting in front of him doing the same thing. We do know that he had some potent hitters behind him. The fact that McCovey was intentionaly walked almost twice as often as Mays proves nothing about their relative abilities, and to pull out a single stat like IBB for one player can be misleading.
In interviews, pitchers that faced Rice, called him fearful. I will trust them more than I will an isolated stat.
Re: HOF
IBB's aren't conclusive in this conversation. But they are more so than using "In interviews, pitchers that faced Rice, called him fearful." Okay, but how fearful? Moreso than McGwire? You can't tell that using your criteria.
Besides that, this whole conversation is basically meaningless. Being feared doesn't really make someone hall-of-fame worthy. I'm sure Mitch Williams was feared by hitters.
Re: HOF
I would agree whole-heartedly with you, that to say Rice was more feared than McGwire is ridiculuous. I think they were both feared and I wasn't the one that said that.
But to simply say that you do not intentionally walk a guy a lot unless you fear him is too one-dimensional. I remember the most exciting Bonds ABs in the past couple years were when someone actually got on base in front of him and they had to pitch to him. Bonds' high IBB totals were dependent on the players hitting in front him not getting on base much. I have to think that if Rice was surrounded by a weenie line-up, his IBB totals would have been much better.
Some have been using Rice's low IBB totals as reason he does not belong in the HOF. I just don't buy that you can base an opinion like that on one isolated stat that is so dependent on the players he played with.
Re: HOF
by BuffyLaCoss on Jan 8, 2008 2:25 PM PST reply actions
Yah.
"At the peak of his game, Morris' ferocious competitive nature added an extra edge to his fastball, slider, and excellent split-finger, making quick and easy work of opposing batters. But occasional outbursts and displays of tension that stemmed from his aggressive mentality often caused a rift between him and some sportswriters. On one less than couth instance, a female reporter attempted to interview him in the Detroit clubhouse and he replied, "I don't talk to women when I'm naked unless they're on top of me or I'm on top of them."
by victor frankenstein on Jan 8, 2008 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
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Re: Yah.
OK , OK , I confess.
Morris was my '91 AL mancrush.
NL? AverGlavoltz.
by victor frankenstein on Jan 8, 2008 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
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by drysdalecousin on Jan 8, 2008 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
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I think Clark should at least be -considered- with some of these other players.... wish he woulda played a couple more years in a platoon role... with the Giants.
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But if you give me Mattingly I'd be up for considering Trammell and Dale Murphy.
by keithr on Jan 8, 2008 6:34 PM PST reply actions
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by Grant Brisbee on Jan 8, 2008 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
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"No one can argue what the did on the field" division:
- Shoeless Joe Jackson
- Pete Rose
- Mark McGwire
- Tim Raines
- Andre Dawson
- Bert Blyleven
- Lee Smith
- Jim Rice
Dale Murphy
Ron Santo
Jack Morris
Longer Shots:
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Jim Kaat
Re: HOF
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What Pedro did was one of the great feats of pitching in history, easily the equal of what Koufax did and up there with freak stuff like Ed Walsh's 40 wins and 464 innings in a single season, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA, etc.
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No. Unless bb-ref is lying to me, Koufax's ERA over that period was about a quarter-run better than Pedro's.
It's also worth noting that Koufax pitched more innings in his five seasons than Pedro pitched in his seven.
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I think he either mistyped 1962 for 1960, or exaggerated. Not sure it's fair to cherry pick top 7 years vs. top 5. either.
It not really relevant - compare ERA+ and Martinez blows Koufax away. Koufax' best ERA+ was 187. Pedro's top 6 years are better than that.
True, he did do it in fewer innings. But you kind of have to correct for average IP in their respective time periods.
None of martinez's contemporaries pitch 300 innings a season. None of them. Pitching all those innings probably drastically shortened Koufax' career.
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by NearestNorwich on Jan 9, 2008 6:50 PM PST up reply actions
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Raines
Blyleven
It'll never happen, but should (have)
Alan Trammell
Albert Belle
Mark McGwire
Random List: Guys Active As Of 2007 Who Are HOF-Caliber, But Have Never Won and Will Never Win An MVP
Craig Biggio
Derek Jeter
Gary Sheffield
Mike Piazza
Finally, and this is my biggest pet peeve this time of year. Maybe y'all have "that guy" you've argued HOF stuff with. My guy whipped out MVP voting and All Star appearances in favor of a Jim Rice induction. To which I whipped out Dwight Evans (too easy). But it got me thinking:
Was Paul O'Neill better than, or even close to, Jim Edmonds? A resounding NO.
Was Bobby Bonilla better than, or even close to, Scott Rolen? Offense looks similar, but defense makes it a resounding NO.
Was Joe Carter even in Albert Belle's stratosphere? Of course not.
Reputation doesn't always approximate actual production, either in retrospect or present day, and it grinds my gears when people try to pass this off as some sort of end-all.
Re: HOF
- Tim Raines. No brainer.
- Andre Dawson.
- Dale Murphy
- Lee Smith
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 9, 2008 2:36 AM PST reply actions
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I hate to break it to you purist's out there (s'up Bob Costas), its an F'ing museum for christs sakes. Lighten up...
- Rose
- McGuire
- Raines
- Blyleven
- Gossage
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by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 9, 2008 7:00 AM PST up reply actions
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I think Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe should be in as well. Come on, most hits in history? If you want to condemn his actions as a manager, then ban him from getting in as manager. And some sources say that Shoeless didn't know what was happening, and even if he did, he still hit .375/.394/.563/.957 during the series, what more could he do to win, and if that is taking a fall, I hate to see what he would do otherwise.
I think McGwire might eventually get in, but should sweat it out. Bonds at least would have been a good to great player without the alleged steroidal help, but McGwire is basically Dave Kingman displaced by 15 or so years, except that he was OK defensively and Kingman was all HR swing (and rat). Sure, he hit a lot of homers, but in an era where runs scored were greatly elevated, that diminishes the accomplishment. If he had kept up his batting average and been about a .300 hitter, then I might think differently but he's pretty one-dimensional in my mind.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 9, 2008 11:38 AM PST reply actions
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- Goose
- Blyleven
- McGwire
- Raines
- Robb Nen
- Lee Smith
by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 9, 2008 1:27 PM PST reply actions
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Sure, he doesn't have 400 homers, and his lifetime average and K's totals are bad, but if he'd played on a marginally competitive team for most of his career, he'd have had 450+ homers, and more like a .280 career average.
He's also probably the only guy you could legitimately say never, never, ever took any juice not labeled 'Apple'.
Granted, I grew up in Atlanta, and got to watch him for almost his entire career (I'm only 30, he started before I was a mere twinkle in the eye...), but his numbers, compared with his contemporaries, scream for enshrinement.
by Dude In Athens on Jan 9, 2008 8:33 PM PST reply actions
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Those are very tempered statements that don't give any specific numbers. I'm just not comfortable with people making up numbers for hypothetical situations and then using that as an argument for something like a hall-of-fame induction.
And why do you say Dale Murphy is someone whom we can be sure never took steroids? Is it because he's Mormon?
Re: HOF
There was a guy on the old Rec.sport.baseball, Clay Davenport I think who was a huge Dale Murphy fan. He eventually became one of the Baseball prospectus guys.
The argument for Murph was that he had an excellent 5-year peak. The argument against was that that was it.
He (Clay) use to post HOF lists whenever a candidate came up, and there was always the "DALE MURPHY" line in capitals. This must have been back in 1995 or something.
To this day, I always think of Dale Murphy as the "Mendoza Line" for HOF outfielders (at least on peak value)
Re: HOF
2 - Mike Krukow
3 - Dave Flemming
4 - Rob Nen
5 - Marvin Benard

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