Credeble Rumor?
I'm torn on the Joe Crede issue. First, let's assume that the White Sox are giving him to the Giants for a Scott Munter-quality arm. Munter isn't around anymore, so they'll have re-sign Doug Creek to include him in a deal. Crede for Doug Creek? I'm not so sure.
Positives:
- There's a chance that his value goes up by the trading deadline and he'll become the first position player during Brian Sabean's career to be traded away in a rebuilding move. I guess there's a chance, at least.
- He is just two years removed from a .500 slugging season. Comiskey helped a little, but he still slugged .485 on the road. On a powerless team, it'd be a huge help if he bounced back to 2006 form.
- He's only on a one-year deal, and he could probably net the Giants a second-round pick after the season is over.
- Bengie Molina wouldn't be the clean-up hitter. Now, I know that Crede isn't guaranteed to improve on his injury-riddled performance from last season, but it would be humiliating to have Bengie Molina as a clean-up hitter. If the Giants aren't going to win, the least they could do is humiliate us less. Molina the Cleanup Hitter is a punch line, not a strategy.
- If Ray Durham has a fluky-hot March or April, a Crede acquisition means that Frandsen sits. I read that Sabean was quoted as saying the young players will get more playing time. I'm often quoted as saying that I need to exercise more. We'll see which one happens first. Over/under on games started by Frandsen in April if Crede is acquired: 10.
- The Giants could get goofy and try and lock Crede up.
If the Giants trade away anything more valuable than Doug Creek to get Crede, I'll finally snap, and I'll sneak into Mays Field, live in a secret room in the bowels of the park, and haunt the crap out of the place like the Phantom of the Opera. But that's not going to happen, right? Because I'll need to give my landlord a 30-day notice if that's the case....
Hennessey is far too much to deal, and I'm not the biggest believer in Hennessey's ability to be a successful reliever. Any player under 30 is far too much to deal. But I'm sure that Sabean knows that, too. Right? Right?
Right?
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by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 1:07 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Right?
by chefasaurus on Jan 30, 2008 1:12 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Right?
by JRPhillips on
Jan 30, 2008 1:49 PM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
Anyone thinking that Chulk/Hennessey/Kline would be the trade bait completely underestimates the ignorance of Brian Sabean.
by Teh Nuschler Face on Jan 30, 2008 1:17 PM PST 0 recs
What the hell else are we gonna do???
That all being said, we need a 3rd baseman. Crede is as good as anyone else that I have heard unless we can get our hands on Eric Chavez, that is the only other one I know of...
Marte and Encarnacion look like they might be just like Peter Happy to me....
by Make me an Offer on Jan 30, 2008 1:23 PM PST 0 recs
Re: What the hell else are we gonna do???
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on
Jan 30, 2008 1:32 PM PST
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Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Marte - One of the top prospects in baseball a few years ago. Has struggled at the MLB level but never has gotten consistent AB's. He is still only 24 and could break out if he is allowed to play through his struggles.
Encarnacion - Already shown decent discipline and power in the majors going into his age 25 season with about 2 seasons of MLB AB's already. Defense needs work, but I don't believe he will be worse than average.
Peter Happy - Pile of dog shit with the bat. Great glove. Going to be 33.
I actually can't find one thing in common between any two of these guys. Except maybe that Marte and Encarnacion are about the same age.
by marcello on
Jan 30, 2008 1:40 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Edwin:AVG .289 HR 16 RBI 76 OBP .356 SLG .438
Peter:AVG .253 HR 20 RBI 72 OBP .290 SLG .418
All I am saying is that I don't think that Edwin will make me forget Cabrera this year unless he just has a break out year. Sabes might get him if Bedard goes to the M's, cause the Reds still might want a lefty....
by Make me an Offer on
Jan 30, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by zenbitz on
Jan 30, 2008 3:28 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by marcello on
Jan 30, 2008 3:35 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Why am I even arguing with you though, after that Cabrera comment. Jeebus!
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on
Jan 30, 2008 3:37 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 30, 2008 2:47 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by Make me an Offer on
Jan 30, 2008 2:52 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 30, 2008 3:13 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by marcello on
Jan 30, 2008 3:33 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I am the defender of Pedro Feliz.
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 30, 2008 4:05 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
When using stats that actually mean something, it's clear that Pedro Feliz was obviously an awful hitter.
by kingofthacove on
Jan 30, 2008 5:23 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 30, 2008 5:37 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Peter Happy - Pile of dog shit with the bat. Great glove. Going to be 33.
I wouldn't have minded if they signed him to play short instead of Vizquel. (an obvious nod to his defense)
The thing is he SUCKS offensively. Like one of the worst fucking third baseman with a bat.
Anyways, using RBI's is dumb is because they don't have much predictive value. Things like OBP and SLG have much better predictive value. If you're still using HR and RBI's to judge a players worth, you have a lot to learn.
Using the fact that the Phillies paid him money as proof of his worth means nothing. Russ Ortiz got a contract of 4/33, does that mean he was worth it? No. Hilariously, the contract Feliz signed with the Phillies is actually a good one for them, but you have no clue why. They don't need more offense and he'll be great for them defensively. And at the end of next year, when he drives in over 100, solely because of the guys hitting in front of him, you can come back here and smile like you know something. But you don't.
by marcello on
Jan 30, 2008 6:03 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
No reason to expect that'll change the more people explain the context of old fashioned statistics to him.
by howtheyscored on
Jan 30, 2008 7:36 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by marcello on
Jan 31, 2008 10:37 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 1:53 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by howtheyscored on
Jan 31, 2008 2:31 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 2:56 PM PST
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HR's and RBI's
by DrBGiantsfan on
Jan 30, 2008 9:09 PM PST
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Re: HR's and RBI's
by Roger on
Jan 31, 2008 8:31 AM PST
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Re: HR's and RBI's
I remember this debate happening around the time Tony Batista signed with the Twins a few years ago. Some people said it was a great signing since they were adding maybe 30 HR's. Some said it was a terrible signing since, if they got 30 HR's from him, they would also be getting an obscene amount of outs.
by marcello on
Jan 31, 2008 9:13 AM PST
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Re: HR's and RBI's
HRs in term of stat usefulness are like Batting Average. There's just no reason to use HRs if you have .SLG (and you do) and there's no reason to use BA if you have .OBP.
RBIs are much worse. RBIs, although I suppose they must be correlated with good hitting are:
a) teammate dependent, like say Wins for pitchers
b) situation dependent, like say Saves for pitchers
c) can be gained while during a net negative batting event. The classic RSBB example was:
Batter A walks
Batter B hits into fielders choice, safe at first.
Batter C singles, B to 3rd.
Batter D hits a sac fly, B scores.
Result: 1 run (leaving 1 out to go and 1 runner on 1st which is worth some fraction of a run statistically).
B gets a Run, and D gets an RBI, but it was A and C who did the good stuff. B and D FAILED in their job of not making an out.
How badly did D fail? You can look at a run expectation matrix and figure out how much each performace was worth:
Using data from 1977-1992
AL 0 1 2 NL 0 1 2
-----------------------------------------------------------------
--- .498 .266 .099 --- .455 .239 .090
x-- .877 .522 .224 x-- .820 .490 .210
-x- 1.147 .693 .330 -x- 1.054 .650 .314
xx- 1.504 .922 .446 xx- 1.402 .863 .407
--x 1.373 .967 .385 --x 1.285 .907 .358
x-x 1.758 1.187 .507 x-x 1.650 1.123 .466
-xx 2.009 1.410 .592 -xx 1.864 1.320 .566
xxx 2.345 1.568 .775 xxx 2.188 1.487 .715
So we start at no body on, no body out:
0.455 expect runs (NL)
after the walk 0.820, so A gets +0.365
after the force play, 0.490, so B gets -0.330
after the single, 1.123, so C gets +0.633
after the sac fly 0.210, so D gets -0.913, but +1 for actually scoring a real run, so +0.087.
by zenbitz on
Jan 31, 2008 9:38 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
All you people focus on if offensive stats, which I think is an indication of your lack of baseball knowledge. You know stats, but you don't know anything about the game. Defensive skills and leadership skills matter. Playing as a team matters. Why did the Diamondbacks do so well last year given their unspectacular offensive numbers?
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 1:58 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I don't know why- and you don't know either.
But the difference is, I don't even wonder why. Because sometimes things happen for NO REASON AT ALL. In statistics, this is sometimes called the "null hypothesis".
We are focusing on offensive stats because you mentioned HRs and RBIs. Surely you aren't suggesting that RBIs and HRs are defensive stats?
The funny thing is - I don't even think Feliz is a terrible player. He's at least as good as Crede. Why do I think this (and I used to think the opposite)? Because his DEFENSIVE statistics (I mean the good ones, not fielding %) are really, really REALLY good. So good, that even if they are wrong by a factor of 2, he'd still probably balances out his OUTRAGOUS INABILITY TO HIT LIKE A MAJOR LEAGUE BALL PLAYER.
Oh, and I'm the one that doesn't believe that your catchers' pitch calling game makes a difference at the MLB level. Note that I am not saying it's isn't a skill or isn't important - just that among ML catchers, there's no discernable difference.
If there was - you would be able to see it in how the pitchers' stats changed.
by zenbitz on
Jan 31, 2008 3:52 PM PST
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Catchers game calling
I do know that when I was in school in Boston in the '80s someone did the work in comparing team ERA for the games caught by Rick Cerrone and Rich Gedman. In 1988 they both played a significant number of games; 83 and 93 respectively. In games caught by Gedman ERA was 1 run less than in games caught by Cerrone.
This may be just a statistical anomaly. If you know where to find stats for how pitchers perform with different catchers I would like to see them. The Gedman/Cerrone example has always led me to believe that play calling did make a difference though.
by marklar on
Feb 4, 2008 9:40 AM PST
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Re: Catchers game calling
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=436
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1489
The basic conclusion is:
by marcello on
Feb 4, 2008 11:42 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
And haha @ contracts being used to judge how good a player is. You're too clueless to post here; I think you should just close your account and move on to sfgiants.com
by kingofthacove on
Jan 30, 2008 6:32 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by kingofthacove on
Jan 30, 2008 6:33 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by howtheyscored on
Jan 30, 2008 7:38 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
See, I love you all, really. We're all Giants fans, right?
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Gary - if you really did understand what roll stats play in baseball, you would know that a players RBI totals are not very indicative of his usefulness.
by zenbitz on
Jan 31, 2008 3:56 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I demand that you so called "stat experts" start factoring in defense.
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 4:16 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Considering that it is pretty much unanymously held that Pedro was the second worst offensive 3B of 2007, I would say that's a bunch of stat geeks - even the pessimistic ones - giving defense a hell of a lot of credit.
The thing is this conversation, the one we're having, was about HR and RBI's. It's not even directly about Pedro Feliz, for the most part! Not every conversation is all encompassing, and this wasn't one of them. But it's not for lack of giving Pedro's defense credit. It's just not the topic of the discussion at hand.
Pedro's glove gets a ton of credit around here from stat guys and non stat guys alike. But we're not going to talk about it every single time.
by howtheyscored on
Jan 31, 2008 10:54 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Feb 1, 2008 12:35 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Now then, apologize immediately!
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Feb 4, 2008 12:25 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by Natto on
Jan 30, 2008 4:05 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Also, Pedro used to have Metallica played when he walked up to the plate. Not loving him for that is un-American and Al Qaeda-esque.
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 30, 2008 4:20 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
But Feliz used to play Slayer, too. That kicks all kinds of ass.
by Grant on
Jan 30, 2008 4:50 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
True story, I didn't at all make it up.
by JRPhillips on
Jan 30, 2008 5:04 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
The disconnect was just... so... perfect....
by howtheyscored on
Jan 30, 2008 5:19 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
m/ <- rockin' dio/devil sign
by Goofus on
Jan 31, 2008 6:58 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by zenbitz on
Jan 31, 2008 9:21 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
by GaryEdmundCarter on
Jan 31, 2008 2:47 PM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
The Giants team ERA last year was 9th in all of MLB, and 5th in the NL.
The Giants had the 6th best fielding % in MLB last year, and 4th best in the NL.
Don't know if you noticed, but the Giants finished 71-91 last season, even with the impressive pitching and defensive numbers.
by otis29 on
Jan 31, 2008 7:01 AM PST
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Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Maybe in Gary Carter's peak it wasn't.
by zenbitz on
Jan 30, 2008 3:29 PM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
I don't see the point in trading for a one-year rental. If the Giants are going to lose, they're going to lose. And they are... going to lose. Lose big time. So why give up anybody (especially a younger pitcher or two) for someone like Crede who won't contribute to the team's future.
Why not-- why can't we just try a little patience? Huh? Huh?
We wait this season out, give some guys within the orginization a chance, and see what happens. We're headed for 95-100 loses anyway.
OF COURSE, if the Chi-Sox take one of Durham/ Roberts off our hands, then the deal would probably be okay-- okay along the lines of a Hennessey or Misch going over to them.
But, knowing Sabean, we'll send Lowry, Sanchez, and Fred Lewis over for Crede.
Go team.
by lrs77 on Jan 30, 2008 1:23 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Credeble Rumor?
Come to think of it, when I had MLB Extra Innings back in like 2003, their announcers were absolutely unsavory. Some of the most biased, untalented fools I've ever heard. I'll bet those guys have made Sox fans silly with delusion over the years.
by Woody Wins on
Jan 30, 2008 1:41 PM PST
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by m3lkor on
Jan 31, 2008 6:56 AM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
But, come on! You can't hate on Santo. That drunk, cursing, blubbering fool is the VOICE OF CHICAGO!
And in regard to the argument up a bit about how RBI and HR matter-- of course they matter. But if you watched nearly every Giants game that Pedro has played in you'd soon realize that all his RBI and HRs come when the Giants already are kicking the snot out of the other team. It was a rare occassion, indeed, when Pedro would get a hit in a game that mattered.
by lrs77 on
Jan 31, 2008 10:19 AM PST
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by lrs77 on
Jan 31, 2008 10:21 AM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
RBI and BA however aren't the only indications that Feliz is capitalizing more often when the pressure is generally lower. Through 2006, Pedro has hit 89 home runs in his career. Of those, 44% have been hit while the Giants were ahead. 30% of those 89 have been hit while the team was ahead by 2 or more, 29% have been hit while ahead or behind by 4 or more and over 16% of his career HR have been hit while ahead by four runs or more.
by nvsfg on
Feb 1, 2008 10:57 AM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
As I said over on the other thread, I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the Giants would try to lock him up if they had him. He's a gamer, after all.
by Evan on Jan 30, 2008 1:31 PM PST 0 recs
Career OPS+
Had a horrendous season in 2007 due to back problems.
James: 746 OPS, MARCEL: 759 CHONE: 752. ZIPS: 756.
That ZIPS projection rates him very badly, since ZIPS projects a league average SS to OPS 756 in Chicago, with much higher OBP; thus ZIPS projects Crede to be worse than a league average SS.
All project Fields to be better. James as usual overrates the young player projecting an OPS of 855. MARCEL projects 796, CHONE 769. ZIPS: 785.
So, the most charitable projection, CHONE, has him 17 points in OPS behind Crede. The least charitable, James, more than 100 points.
Of course there is his D. But there is also his back.
If you assume that he is fully recovered, then yeah, he might be better, after including D.
by rfloh on
Jan 30, 2008 2:20 PM PST
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by rxmeister on
Jan 30, 2008 6:40 PM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
I don't think Lowry will be good in the future, but even I wouldn't trade him for just Crede. And I sure wouldn't trade Sanchez. I'd be willing to part with Doug Creek or Allen Watson. Craig Lefferts would be too much, though.
And then the truly scary thought that Sabean might sign Crede to a long-term deal... That's enough to keep me awake all night tonight. Thanks, Grant!
by Lyle on Jan 30, 2008 1:31 PM PST 0 recs
Re: Credeble Rumor?
by daveinexile on
Jan 30, 2008 2:04 PM PST
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I'm working on a big Roadkill Muscial production
Dead Skunk in the Middle of the Lineup
by Moggeee on
Jan 30, 2008 3:09 PM PST
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Re: I'm working on a big Roadkill Muscial
by daveinexile on
Jan 31, 2008 9:18 AM PST
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Re: Credeble Rumor?
Taking away AB's from Frandsen, and picking up a rental for a rebuilding team = no. I could see him kinda bouncing back, hitting 22 home runs with a .310 OBP or so, slugging .430... oh wait. That's about what he did 3 times in 4 full seasons. But I was going to say the Giants would probably give him a 5-year contract after a year like that. He probably does a lot of the things that don't show up in the stats, like hit the runner over to second and the like.
I could see this involving Winn, though, given the Sox needs. I'd love to dump some contracts, but if we're giving up any real value I'd rather have Ensberg for nothing than Crede for something run on sentence bad punctuation;
by jasomack on Jan 30, 2008 1:32 PM PST 0 recs
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by out machine on Jan 30, 2008 1:36 PM PST 0 recs
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by daveinexile on
Jan 30, 2008 2:10 PM PST
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