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Credeble Rumor?

Thumb_tiny by Grant on in News

I'm torn on the Joe Crede issue. First, let's assume that the White Sox are giving him to the Giants for a Scott Munter-quality arm. Munter isn't around anymore, so they'll have re-sign Doug Creek to include him in a deal. Crede for Doug Creek? I'm not so sure.

Positives:

  • There's a chance that his value goes up by the trading deadline and he'll become the first position player during Brian Sabean's career to be traded away in a rebuilding move. I guess there's a chance, at least.
  • He is just two years removed from a .500 slugging season. Comiskey helped a little, but he still slugged .485 on the road. On a powerless team, it'd be a huge help if he bounced back to 2006 form.
  • He's only on a one-year deal, and he could probably net the Giants a second-round pick after the season is over.
  • Bengie Molina wouldn't be the clean-up hitter. Now, I know that Crede isn't guaranteed to improve on his injury-riddled performance from last season, but it would be humiliating to have Bengie Molina as a clean-up hitter. If the Giants aren't going to win, the least they could do is humiliate us less. Molina the Cleanup Hitter is a punch line, not a strategy.
Negatives:
  • If Ray Durham has a fluky-hot March or April, a Crede acquisition means that Frandsen sits. I read that Sabean was quoted as saying the young players will get more playing time. I'm often quoted as saying that I need to exercise more. We'll see which one happens first. Over/under on games started by Frandsen in April if Crede is acquired: 10.
  • The Giants could get goofy and try and lock Crede up.
A free Crede? Maybe, but only if Durham goes away.

If the Giants trade away anything more valuable than Doug Creek to get Crede, I'll finally snap, and I'll sneak into Mays Field, live in a secret room in the bowels of the park, and haunt the crap out of the place like the Phantom of the Opera. But that's not going to happen, right? Because I'll need to give my landlord a 30-day notice if that's the case....

Hennessey is far too much to deal, and I'm not the biggest believer in Hennessey's ability to be a successful reliever. Any player under 30 is far too much to deal. But I'm sure that Sabean knows that, too. Right? Right?

Right?

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You too?  I've been saying the exercise thing for over two years now with no results.  My heart and lungs have started a website, firethemouth.com.  Which is sort of hilarious to my brain since he's the one making the decisions, my mouth is just the PR guy.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 1:07 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Right?
Right.  I wouldn't give up Chulk for Crede.

by chefasaurus on Jan 30, 2008 1:12 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Right?
Consider yourself lucky...  I was nominated as the most hated Giants first baseman ever.  Bunch of A-holes on this site.  >=(
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Jan 30, 2008 1:49 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
The sad part of this is that the Sox have stocked up on relievers, so if Crede comes to SF, it will most likely be for a starter. Jon Sanchez anyone?

Anyone thinking that Chulk/Hennessey/Kline would be the trade bait completely underestimates the ignorance of Brian Sabean.

by Teh Nuschler Face on Jan 30, 2008 1:17 PM PST   0 recs

What the hell else are we gonna do???
I would make the trade, if it's reasonable.  Chulk is reasonable.  Hennesy is reasonable.  Sanchez, although I am not convinced about Sanchez things would be tighter there, Lowry is also an eh move, but I have a feeling it's Lowry.  I don't want to see Frandsen at 3rd, I am scared if we keep bouncing him around it will affect his swing.  Give him one position and let him get comfortable...That position is 2nd.  Let him roll, trade Durham back to the place from whence he came.

That all being said, we need a 3rd baseman.  Crede is as good as anyone else that I have heard unless we can get our hands on Eric Chavez, that is the only other one I know of...

Marte and Encarnacion look like they might be just like Peter Happy to me....

by Make me an Offer on Jan 30, 2008 1:23 PM PST   0 recs

Re: What the hell else are we gonna do???
Between Crede and Encarnacion, you compare Edwin to Feliz? Come, now... is that really how you want to play it?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Jan 30, 2008 1:32 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
None of these things are like the others.

Marte - One of the top prospects in baseball a few years ago.  Has struggled at the MLB level but never has gotten consistent AB's.  He is still only 24 and could break out if he is allowed to play through his struggles.

Encarnacion - Already shown decent discipline and power in the majors going into his age 25 season with about 2 seasons of MLB AB's already.  Defense needs work, but I don't believe he will be worse than average.

Peter Happy - Pile of dog shit with the bat.  Great glove.  Going to be 33.

I actually can't find one thing in common between any two of these guys.  Except maybe that Marte and Encarnacion are about the same age.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 1:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Ok, I'll give you that they all are differnet, but they all are diffent in ways that make them all pretty average.  Look at the numbers, granted Edwin might have the most upside, but I stand by the fear of Marte, he might be the next Todd Van Poppel type can't miss prospect that missed big time.  Edwin has shown flashes and the age is a factor but let's compare, shall we?  

Edwin:AVG .289 HR 16 RBI 76 OBP .356 SLG .438    
Peter:AVG .253 HR 20 RBI 72 OBP .290 SLG .418  

All I am saying is that I don't think that Edwin will make me forget Cabrera this year unless he just has a break out year.  Sabes might get him if Bedard goes to the M's, cause the Reds still might want a lefty....

by Make me an Offer on Jan 30, 2008 2:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Uh, 65 points of OBP is huge. Like Colossal.  Like "Size of mistake trading for Crede" big.

by zenbitz on Jan 30, 2008 3:28 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yup, at first I thought I would have to respond, but then I saw that OBP was already listed and there was no need.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 3:35 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Edwin had 55 less at bats, so probably figure 2 more homeruns and maybe a dozen more RBIs. So they are similar in HRs. In which other category exactly are they remotely close? EE creams Pedro in AVG (+.036), RBI (figure around +16), OBP (+.066!!), and SLG (+.020). His OPS is approaching .090 better, for crying out loud, and he hasn't necessarily reached his ceiling yet.

Why am I even arguing with you though, after that Cabrera comment. Jeebus!

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Jan 30, 2008 3:37 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
20 HR's and 72 RBIs does not equal a pile of dog shit. Please, stop being silly.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 30, 2008 2:47 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Then why did you want Pedro out of town so bad?

by Make me an Offer on Jan 30, 2008 2:52 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I didn't want Pedro out of town. In fact, much to the consternation and bemusement of the majority of Feliz haters on this board, I advocated to the Giants to re-sign Pedro to a three year deal. I loved his Gold Glove caliber defense and steady HR and RBI numbers. Yes, the OBP sucked, but his defense made up for it, in my opinion.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 30, 2008 3:13 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I wouldn't have minded if they signed him to play short instead of Vizquel.  I also wouldn't have minded if they had signed him to play 3rd for 1 year.  However, I maintain my position that he is dog shit offensively and the facts are on my side.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 3:33 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Nonsense. .253, 8 HRs, 58 RBIs, and .288 OBP are dog shit numbers. Pedro was no Mike Schmidt, but he wasn't dog shit. No, 20 Hrs and 72 RBIs are not dog shit numbers. Completely discounting his defense is dog shit logic.

I am the defender of Pedro Feliz.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 30, 2008 4:05 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Actually HR and RBI are dogshit statistics to judge the performance of a player, so it's irrelevant how many he had.

When using stats that actually mean something, it's clear that Pedro Feliz was obviously an awful hitter.

by kingofthacove on Jan 30, 2008 5:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yeah, Pedro sucked so bad he got $5M per year from Philly. Get a life -- RBI's matter, and so does defense. You people...

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 30, 2008 5:37 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
You're either not very bright or being intentionally antagonistic.  Point to where anyone discounted defense or said defense doesn't matter.  I'll do the work for you and retype what I already wrote:

Peter Happy - Pile of dog shit with the bat.  Great glove.  Going to be 33.

I wouldn't have minded if they signed him to play short instead of Vizquel. (an obvious nod to his defense)

The thing is he SUCKS offensively.  Like one of the worst fucking third baseman with a bat.  

Anyways, using RBI's is dumb is because they don't have much predictive value.  Things like OBP and SLG have much better predictive value.  If you're still using HR and RBI's to judge a players worth, you have a lot to learn.

Using the fact that the Phillies paid him money as proof of his worth means nothing.  Russ Ortiz got a contract of 4/33, does that mean he was worth it?  No.  Hilariously, the contract Feliz signed with the Phillies is actually a good one for them, but you have no clue why.  They don't need more offense and he'll be great for them defensively.  And at the end of next year, when he drives in over 100, solely because of the guys hitting in front of him, you can come back here and smile like you know something.  But you don't.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 30, 2008 6:03 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Don't bother. We've been through this, in depth, with GaryEdmundCarter before. He either doesn't care, doesn't understand, or has an extremely selective memory.

No reason to expect that'll change the more people explain the context of old fashioned statistics to him.

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Jan 30, 2008 7:36 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Point taken.  I don't know why I am trying in the first place.  I've never once see anyone admit to being wrong on the internet so why would I expect it to be different now?
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 31, 2008 10:37 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Oh, yeah, you must be one of the stat geniuses who think that things like a catcher's game calling ability or a player's leadership ability count for nothing, huh?

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 1:53 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Actually, the only stats I really even ever say anything about are OBP and SLG for a hitter. Not even OBP+. Not even VORP. Not even park adjusted. Basic stuff, OBP and SLG. And I've defended RBIs in the past. I defended RBIs in that explanation I linked to above. Just because they need a ton of context doesn't mean they're useless. So I just don't see where you're coming from.
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Jan 31, 2008 2:31 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yes! You're sticking up for RBIs. I knew you were a good man, howtheyscored.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 2:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

HR's and RBI's
I understand the argument about RBI's, although I think that has become an underrated stat by many now.  I don't understand why HR's are unimportant or not predictive.  HR's are the only offensive events in baseball that produce a run with no assistance from another player.  I would think that would make it the flagship of stats.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 30, 2008 9:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: HR's and RBI's
I'd guess because they happen so infrequently. Only about 3% of Pedro's PA result in HRs. A stat which doesn't account for the results of 97% of occurences can't really be that predictive.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Jan 31, 2008 8:31 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: HR's and RBI's
Sorry, I probably overstated the unimportance of HR's.  It is the absolute best outcome for the batter in each PA.  However, HR's, like most stats, need context.  If a guy hits 20 HR's, like Feliz did, it's about average I would say.  If that player combines 20 HR's with a .380 OBP, he's probably doing more than enough offensively.  If he combines it with a sub .300 OBP, he's hurting his team.

I remember this debate happening around the time Tony Batista signed with the Twins a few years ago.  Some people said it was a great signing since they were adding maybe 30 HR's.  Some said it was a terrible signing since, if they got 30 HR's from him, they would also be getting an obscene amount of outs.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Jan 31, 2008 9:13 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: HR's and RBI's

HRs in term of stat usefulness are like Batting Average.  There's just no reason to use HRs if you have .SLG (and you do) and there's no reason to use BA if you have .OBP.

RBIs are much worse.  RBIs, although I suppose they must be correlated with good hitting are:

a) teammate dependent, like say Wins for pitchers
b) situation dependent, like say Saves for pitchers
c) can be gained while during a net negative batting event.  The classic RSBB example was:

Batter A walks
Batter B hits into fielders choice, safe at first.
Batter C singles, B to 3rd.
Batter D hits a sac fly, B scores.

Result: 1 run (leaving 1 out to go and 1 runner on 1st which is worth some fraction of a run statistically).

B gets a Run, and D gets an RBI, but it was A and C who did the good stuff.  B and D FAILED in their job of not making an out.

How badly did D fail?  You can look at a run expectation matrix and figure out how much each performace was worth:

 Using data from 1977-1992


AL         0        1        2      NL        0        1        2
-----------------------------------------------------------------
---     .498     .266     .099     ---     .455     .239     .090
x--     .877     .522     .224     x--     .820     .490     .210
-x-    1.147     .693     .330     -x-    1.054     .650     .314
xx-    1.504     .922     .446     xx-    1.402     .863     .407
--x    1.373     .967     .385     --x    1.285     .907     .358
x-x    1.758    1.187     .507     x-x    1.650    1.123     .466
-xx    2.009    1.410     .592     -xx    1.864    1.320     .566
xxx    2.345    1.568     .775     xxx    2.188    1.487     .715

So we start at no body on, no body out:
0.455 expect runs (NL)
after the walk 0.820, so A gets +0.365
after the force play, 0.490, so B gets -0.330
after the single, 1.123, so C gets +0.633
after the sac fly 0.210, so D gets -0.913, but +1 for actually scoring a real run, so +0.087.

by zenbitz on Jan 31, 2008 9:38 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
If you're seriously arguing that RBIs don't matter, then you're clearly ignorant and silly.

All you people focus on if offensive stats, which I think is an indication of your lack of baseball knowledge. You know stats, but you don't know anything about the game. Defensive skills and leadership skills matter. Playing as a team matters. Why did the Diamondbacks do so well last year given their unspectacular offensive numbers?

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 1:58 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz

I don't know why- and you don't know either.
But the difference is, I don't even wonder why.  Because sometimes things happen for NO REASON AT ALL.  In statistics, this is sometimes called the "null hypothesis".  

We are focusing on offensive stats because you mentioned HRs and RBIs.  Surely you aren't suggesting that RBIs and HRs are defensive stats?

The funny thing is - I don't even think Feliz is a terrible player.  He's at least as good as Crede.  Why do I think this (and I used to think the opposite)? Because his DEFENSIVE statistics (I mean the good ones, not fielding %) are really, really REALLY good.  So good, that even if they are wrong by a factor of 2, he'd still probably balances out his OUTRAGOUS INABILITY TO HIT LIKE A MAJOR LEAGUE BALL PLAYER.

Oh, and I'm the one that doesn't believe that your catchers' pitch calling game makes a difference at the MLB level.  Note that I am not saying it's isn't a skill or isn't important - just that among ML catchers, there's no discernable difference.

If there was - you would be able to see it in how the pitchers' stats changed.

by zenbitz on Jan 31, 2008 3:52 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Catchers game calling
The reason you don't see the pitcher's stats change is because it is almost impossible to find numbers for how pitchers perform with different catchers. At least for me anyway.

I do know that when I was in school in Boston in the '80s someone did the work in comparing team ERA for the games caught by Rick Cerrone and Rich Gedman. In 1988 they both played a significant number of games; 83 and 93 respectively. In games caught by Gedman ERA was 1 run less than in games caught by Cerrone.

This may be just a statistical anomaly. If you know where to find stats for how pitchers perform with different catchers I would like to see them. The Gedman/Cerrone example has always led me to believe that play calling did make a difference though.

by marklar on Feb 4, 2008 9:40 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Catchers game calling
Keith Woolner, for Baseball Prospectus, tackled this a while back.  Here is his original article, a follow up based on emails a day later, and another two years later that involved input from Bill James:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=436
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1489

The basic conclusion is:

Though we would colloquially say that game-calling doesn't exist, it's more accurate to say that if there is a true game-calling ability, it lies below the threshold of detection.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Feb 4, 2008 11:42 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yeah, a stat that is almost extremely reliant on the hitters around you is so useful.

And haha @ contracts being used to judge how good a player is. You're too clueless to post here; I think you should just close your account and move on to sfgiants.com

by kingofthacove on Jan 30, 2008 6:32 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
*IS extremely reliant, not almost

by kingofthacove on Jan 30, 2008 6:33 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Gary, we've been over this. Don't you remember? You seemed pleased to have this logical information at the time. What happened?
He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Jan 30, 2008 7:38 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Don't worry, I am pleased to have logical information. The thing is, there is more to understanding the game of baseball than just offensive stats. I mean, how many runs did Pedro Feliz save with his defense? How did the solid left side of the infield influence the pitchers? How did the solid left side of the infield influence the catcher's game calling? I have a firm grasp of how stats apply to understanding the game of baseball (no, I don't know as much about stats as most of the stat heads on this message board), but there's just more to baseball than offensive stats.

See, I love you all, really. We're all Giants fans, right?

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 2:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz

Gary - if you really did understand what roll stats play in baseball, you would know that a players RBI totals are not very indicative of his usefulness.

by zenbitz on Jan 31, 2008 3:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I am right and you are wrong.

I demand that you so called "stat experts" start factoring in defense.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 4:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
There have been EXTENDED discussions over how much Pedro's defense makes up for his putrid offense. The most optimistic of them seem to have him around the 10th best 3B of 2007, and the least optimistic seem to have him just out of the top 15.

Considering that it is pretty much unanymously held that Pedro was the second worst offensive 3B of 2007, I would say that's a bunch of stat geeks - even the pessimistic ones - giving defense a hell of a lot of credit.

The thing is this conversation, the one we're having, was about HR and RBI's. It's not even directly about Pedro Feliz, for the most part! Not every conversation is all encompassing, and this wasn't one of them. But it's not for lack of giving Pedro's defense credit. It's just not the topic of the discussion at hand.

Pedro's glove gets a ton of credit around here from stat guys and non stat guys alike. But we're not going to talk about it every single time.

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Jan 31, 2008 10:54 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I heart you too, Pookey.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Feb 1, 2008 12:35 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Oh, one more thing about definsive ststs and how you all seem to refuse to acknowledge them or just plain get them wrong. Pedro Feliz had a .973 fielding percentage last year... how does that make him only the 10th best 3B in the NL?

Now then, apologize immediately!

by GaryEdmundCarter on Feb 4, 2008 12:25 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
If you look at any of GaryEdmundCarter's previous posts (or even in this thread), you'd see that he's Feliz's #1 fan.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Jan 30, 2008 4:05 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yes, I am in fact a huge fan of Pedro Feliz. I like pitching and defense, and I'm just sad that a Gold Glove caliber guy got away.

Also, Pedro used to have Metallica played when he walked up to the plate. Not loving him for that is un-American and Al Qaeda-esque.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 30, 2008 4:20 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Metallica...eh, every Tom, Dick, and Harry plays Metallica as his walk-up music.

But Feliz used to play Slayer, too. That kicks all kinds of ass.

by Grant on Jan 30, 2008 4:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
I have it on good authority that Pedro actually asked for Peter Frampton's "Baby I love your way."  When told he'd be mocked and ridiculed, he told the DJ to just play whatever.

True story, I didn't at all make it up.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Jan 30, 2008 5:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
My absolute favorite of all time has to be Jason Ellison walking out to Crazy Train.

The disconnect was just... so... perfect....

He is Vengeance. He is the Knight. He is Dave Righetti. PRAY TO HIM!

by howtheyscored on Jan 30, 2008 5:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
My walk-up music would be "Muscrat Love" by Captain and Tonille.  F- yeah!

m/    <- rockin' dio/devil sign

I'm Goofus McPenisbutter and I approve this message.

by Goofus on Jan 31, 2008 6:58 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
My favorite was always "For Whom The Bell Tolls" (old skool metallica) for ... David Bell

by zenbitz on Jan 31, 2008 9:21 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Yes, Pedro Feliz did in fact reign in blood from a lacerated sky.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Jan 31, 2008 2:47 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz
Pitching and defense is great, but having a bottom-three offense is much, much worse.

The Giants team ERA last year was 9th in all of MLB, and 5th in the NL.

The Giants had the 6th best fielding % in MLB last year, and 4th best in the NL.

Don't know if you noticed, but the Giants finished 71-91 last season, even with the impressive pitching and defensive numbers.

by otis29 on Jan 31, 2008 7:01 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Marte, Encarnacion, and Feliz

Maybe in Gary Carter's peak it wasn't.  

by zenbitz on Jan 30, 2008 3:29 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
Over at mlbtraderumors.com the White Sox fans are going crazy. Many of them think Lowry isn't nearly enough for a straight up trade, while us Giants fans agree Lowry is WAY TOO MUCH for a guy that would bat a whole lot like Feliz if he plays in the NL West-- that is, if he's healthy enough to play.

I don't see the point in trading for a one-year rental. If the Giants are going to lose, they're going to lose. And they are... going to lose. Lose big time. So why give up anybody (especially a younger pitcher or two) for someone like Crede who won't contribute to the team's future.

Why not-- why can't we just try a little patience? Huh? Huh?

We wait this season out, give some guys within the orginization a chance, and see what happens. We're headed for 95-100 loses anyway.

OF COURSE, if the Chi-Sox take one of Durham/ Roberts off our hands, then the deal would probably be okay-- okay along the lines of a Hennessey or Misch going over to them.

But, knowing Sabean, we'll send Lowry, Sanchez, and Fred Lewis over for Crede.

Go team.

by lrs77 on Jan 30, 2008 1:23 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
Those White Sox fans are the same fans that have been embarassing themselves all off-season long with absolutely un-informed and asinine trade proposals.

Come to think of it, when I had MLB Extra Innings back in like 2003, their announcers were absolutely unsavory.  Some of the most biased, untalented fools I've ever heard.  I'll bet those guys have made Sox fans silly with delusion over the years.

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Jan 30, 2008 1:41 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
As a Giants fan stuck in Chicago, I will tell you that DJ and Hawk Harilson are nowhere near as biased as the no legged former third basemen on the North Side.

by m3lkor on Jan 31, 2008 6:56 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
Oh, I despise the White Sox television duo. They're THE WORST.

But, come on! You can't hate on Santo. That drunk, cursing, blubbering fool is the VOICE OF CHICAGO!

And in regard to the argument up a bit about how RBI and HR matter-- of course they matter. But if you watched nearly every Giants game that Pedro has played in you'd soon realize that all his RBI and HRs come when the Giants already are kicking the snot out of the other team. It was a rare occassion, indeed, when Pedro would get a hit in a game that mattered.

by lrs77 on Jan 31, 2008 10:19 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
CLARIFICATION: I didn't necessarily mean a game that "mattered". What I meant was he would rarely get a HR or knock in a run in a close game. So many of his RBI and HR came when the Giants were already winning the game 12 - 2. So it's easy to say that Pedro's somewhat impressive HR and RBI totals each year are misleading.

by lrs77 on Jan 31, 2008 10:21 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
The guys over at Baseball Evolution already did the work on that.

RBI and BA however aren't the only indications that Feliz is capitalizing more often when the pressure is generally lower.  Through 2006, Pedro has hit 89 home runs in his career.  Of those, 44% have been hit while the Giants were ahead.  30% of those 89 have been hit while the team was ahead by 2 or more, 29% have been hit while ahead or behind by 4 or more and over 16% of his career HR have been hit while ahead by four runs or more.

My adopted son Matt Downs. Because face it, everybody else was already taken by the time I got here.

by nvsfg on Feb 1, 2008 10:57 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
I can't see why the White Sox would trade Crede just to get rid of him. He's probably still a better player than Josh Fields, and they need the depth.

As I said over on the other thread, I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the Giants would try to lock him up if they had him. He's a gamer, after all.

by Evan on Jan 30, 2008 1:31 PM PST   0 recs

Career OPS+
of 92, only one full season with an OPS+ over 100, in 2006. Even then, his best year resulted in only a 107 OPS+.

Had a horrendous season in 2007 due to back problems.

James: 746 OPS, MARCEL: 759 CHONE: 752. ZIPS: 756.

That ZIPS projection rates him very badly, since ZIPS projects a league average SS to OPS 756 in Chicago, with much higher OBP; thus ZIPS projects Crede to be worse than a league average SS.

All project Fields to be better. James as usual overrates the young player projecting an OPS of 855. MARCEL projects 796, CHONE 769. ZIPS: 785.

So, the most charitable projection, CHONE, has him 17 points in OPS behind Crede. The least charitable, James, more than 100 points.

Of course there is his D. But there is also his back.

If you assume that he is fully recovered, then yeah, he might be better, after including D.

by rfloh on Jan 30, 2008 2:20 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
they can TRY and lock him up, but with Scott Boras as his agent they won't be able to. That's assuming he has a good year, of course.
Hillary: Will cry for votes

by rxmeister on Jan 30, 2008 6:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
I think we need the humiliation of Bengie the Cleanup Hitter for at least several months before it slowly sinks in to Magowan that Sabean has maneuvered himself into a corner. For that very reason, I don't want Crede.

I don't think Lowry will be good in the future, but  even I wouldn't trade him for just Crede. And I sure wouldn't trade Sanchez. I'd be willing to part with Doug Creek or Allen Watson. Craig Lefferts would be too much, though.

And then the truly scary thought that Sabean might sign Crede to a long-term deal...  That's enough to keep me awake all night tonight. Thanks, Grant!

"I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense." -Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory

by Lyle on Jan 30, 2008 1:31 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
 Also (re: Molina in the 4 hole)  if we are going to reek like several week old  road kill in August we might as well be getting another top 5 draft pick.

by daveinexile on Jan 30, 2008 2:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
If it costs us any of our young pitching, even our so-so young pitching, I'm out. Unless they eat Durham and Roberts. And the pitching is Chulk.
Taking away AB's from Frandsen, and picking up a rental for a rebuilding team = no. I could see him kinda bouncing back, hitting 22 home runs with a .310 OBP or so, slugging .430... oh wait. That's about what he did 3 times in 4 full seasons. But I was going to say the Giants would probably give him a 5-year contract after a year like that. He probably does a lot of the things that don't show up in the stats, like hit the runner over to second and the like.
I could see this involving Winn, though, given the Sox needs. I'd love to dump some contracts, but if we're giving up any real value I'd rather have Ensberg for nothing than Crede for something run on sentence bad punctuation;
Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Jan 30, 2008 1:32 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
I agree that our goal should be humiliation avoidance, that is setting our expectations at 2 on a scale of 5.  I think all the Giants need to do is make sure they get younger with each transaction, that way no Lowry or Sanchez or anything under 30 could be traded for Crede.  Durham and/or Roberts, and you have yourself a deal Kenny.

by out machine on Jan 30, 2008 1:36 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
We are Gains Fans. At this point humiliation is unavoidable.  Otherwise I agree with you fully.

by daveinexile on Jan 30, 2008 2:10 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Credeble Rumor?
Go Gains!
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