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Parallel Drawin'

The problem: One of the worst teams in baseball.
The solution: Like, get a less worse team. De-worst it, if you will.
The template: The 2006 Detroit Tigers

The 2003 Tigers were in much, much worse shape than the 2007 Giants. Think about that one for a while. The 2003 Tigers lost 119 games. Their offense was as about as bad as the Giants' non-Bonds offense, but a pitching staff full of 12 Russ Ortizes wouldn't have made the team worse. And I'm talking Russ Ortiz right now -- post-Tommy John surgery.

There were a lot of articles on the turnaround of the 2006 Tigers, with the best one from Baseball Prospectus here and here. Long story short:

  • The Tigers picked up a bunch of free talent. (Marcus Thames, Chris Shelton, Craig Monroe)
  • They developed a good outfielder (Curtis Granderson) and an average third baseman (Brandon Inge).
  • They scored an undervalued position player for cheap. (Placido Polanco)
  • They had a pitching staff built with two homegrown flamethrowers, a homegrown league-average lefty, a free-agent lefty, and assorted fifth-starters.
  • They spent big money on two free agents when it seemed like there was no reason for a non-contending team to do so. (Magglio Ordonez and Pudge Rodriguez)
Lessee, the first point is obviously applicable to the Giants. We can hope the Giants develop some players and nick some underappreciated players, so the second and third points work too.  The fourth point is an obvious, if overextended, parallel. And the fifth point is...

...exactly what we're hoping the Giants won't do.

And, yes, I'm well aware of the fact that, if we're talking SAT analogies, "Dave Dombrowski" is to "Brian Sabean" as "watching Casablanca with a loved one" is to "your pants full of bees." I'm just riffing here. But is there something to the idea of signing good players without worrying too much about the current state of the team?

Of course, "good players" is the key point. I'd include Andruw Jones, current wretched season notwithstanding, and Alex Rodriguez from this free-agent class, but there are some interesting folks for 2008.

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Re: Parallel Drawin'
Is Carl Crawford likely to be extended before free agency?  I think it'd make a lot of sense for the Giants to wait a year and go after him rather than Jones or Hunter now.
The Maharajai steals at will (plus he's not Matt Morris).

by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Sep 28, 2007 1:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Crawford has option years on his contract that will undoubtedly be exercised, unless the Devil Rays decide they'd prefer to trade him off.
Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by JT Jordan on Sep 28, 2007 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
That assessment of the Devil Rays vis-a-vis Crawford is full of sound and fury, but alas, signifying nothing.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Sep 28, 2007 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
You mean "The Rays." There's no longer anything Devilish about them.
Jesse Foppert: Welcome home, my son. And meet your adopted brother, Kelvin Pichardo. He's from the Dominican Republic.

by leftymalo on Sep 28, 2007 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
When it comes right down to it, the Bradenton Rays of St. Petersburg are positively Angelic.
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Sep 28, 2007 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
What about Hank Blalock?  
"Just another ahahahaha... laugher."

by capnk on Sep 28, 2007 1:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
to play first base.
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 28, 2007 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
The thing is, the two big free-agent signings didn't really help them. Well, I guess you could argue that Pudge made an impact with his defense and his handling of the pitching staff; but as a hitter, he's Bengie Molina with less power. Magglio is having a crazy fluke MVP-level season this year, but in 2005-06 he was a very average (and seriously overpaid) right fielder.

by Evan on Sep 28, 2007 2:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
You lost me on the Magglio-signing-didn't-help-them thing. ¿Que?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Sep 28, 2007 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Well, here are the outfielders in the American League in 2006, ranked by OPS. Ordonez is about as middle of the pack as you can get (and remember, this list includes a number of players who have a lot more defensive value than he does). The year before, he was worse.

For this he got $15 million. On a runs-per-dollar basis, he didn't help the team on their great run last season -- he was dragging them down.

Obviously he's worth every penny this season, but that seems peripheral to the deworstification question at hand.

by Evan on Sep 28, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Ordonez's 15 mil/year actually came right on the heels of a major knee surgery, right?  What looked like a pretty horrible signing has been vindicated as the knee has healed.

by Stoned Slacker on Sep 28, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not just a knee injury
Shortly after his knee surgery, he suffered an abdominal hernia.

by rfloh on Sep 29, 2007 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're forgetting attendance
The Tigers suffered a huge attendance drop after 2003. Signing Pudge and then Magglio, and to a lesser extent, trading for Carlos Guillen, gave fans, or at least casual fans, hope.

Magglio was paid $6M in 2005, $15M in 2006. Was Magglio overpaid in his first two years? Yes. Not really overpaid in 2005, very overpaid in 2006. His year-by-year OPS+ with Detroit: 113, 113, 168. League average or very slightly above league average in his 1st 2 years. Defensively, by metrics, he appears to be above average. Yes, overpaid. But in totality, just looking at production, he was still above average. $21M /2 for and above average player. An overpaid above average player, is till an above average player.

Also, it isn't as if he was blocking any uber or even semi-decent prospect. Did Detroit have any players in-house who could have duplicated Magglio's performance?

Could they have spent the money in a better manner? Yes, they could have signed Vlad. They did trade for Carlos Guillen, so signing Tejada would not have been money better spent.

Pudge's contract: 04:$7M, 05:$8M, 06:$11M. Pudge's OPS+ detroit: 135, 94, 98, 86. Bengie in the same period: 86, 110, 98, 86. Also, Bengie was not an FA in the same year as Pudge. Pudge gave them one MVP calibre year, one good year, one decent year, and in the last year of the contract a poor year. A great investment? No. But take a look around MLB, at the catchers playing. An OPS+ in the 90s is pretty good.

Similar to the Ordonez situation, Detroit didn't have an in-house solutions that were as good or better than Pudge.

Note, I'm not saying that Magglio and Pudge were not overpaid, though less so in Pudge's case. What I'm disagreeing with is the idea that the 2 big FA signing didn't really help them. Yes, they were overpaid. But they also helped.

by rfloh on Sep 29, 2007 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I'm enough of a Moneyballer to be willing to find out how much Adam Dunn wants.

Three True Outcomes.

by achiappanza on Sep 28, 2007 2:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
A big positive about Dunn is that he's still fairly young as far as free agents go.
Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Sep 28, 2007 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I imagine it would take a huge overpay to lure him to SF. He's never hit well here, he's likely to want to play for a contender after all those years in Cincy, and, uh, he's never hit well here. So the Giants would be paying extra millions on top of the many millions for a guy who in a few years will probably start thinking of DH-land.
Jesse Foppert: Welcome home, my son. And meet your adopted brother, Kelvin Pichardo. He's from the Dominican Republic.

by leftymalo on Sep 28, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Plus aren't the Reds supposedly going to pick up his option?
Sharlon Schoop: "It's only stealing if you get caught...more than 54% of the time"

by Woody Wins on Sep 28, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
so Texiera, Santana, Orlando Hudson, maybe Crawford or Vladdy.  Let's do it.
2002? I'm over it. But I'll never be over Rich Aurilia.

by wjackalope on Sep 28, 2007 2:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Lackey's good too.

I just hate him with a passion.  

To this day, I go into fits of rage at certain stimuli, such as the number 7, bakeries, died hair, monkies, Reggie Sanders and Disneyland.  All the hype surrounding Halo 3 recently had me going crazy.

Only 975 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Sep 28, 2007 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I think our Placido Polanco could be Cesar Izturis.  He spent '07 stuck in Pittsburg Purgatory, but he's only 27, coming off of injury, and has a history of mild success.  Would the Giants be crazy to offer him a 1-year deal with a club option for 1 more?
Sharlon Schoop: "It's only stealing if you get caught...more than 54% of the time"

by Woody Wins on Sep 28, 2007 3:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I nominate Woody for Assistant to the Assistant GM. At worst Izturis makes an excellent utility/bench player/pinch runner/defensive replacement. His upside is he could win a GG at SS, solidify the defense and revert back to his solid 2004 season. Somebody please bring Woody a cup of coffee.

by wilriv21 on Sep 28, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
The key to finding your Placido Polanco is generous servings of whatever crazy drugs that guy took.  From slappy middle infielder to a 15 hr. guy (in cavernous OF) with a head like the Burger King mascot.

by Stoned Slacker on Sep 28, 2007 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Polanco's head looks like the host body to some crazy alien parasite.
Sharlon Schoop: "It's only stealing if you get caught...more than 54% of the time"

by Woody Wins on Sep 28, 2007 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

When has he hit 15 HRs
in Detroit? As of now, he has yet to break into double-digits in HRs with Detroit. Though he might this season.

by rfloh on Sep 29, 2007 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Polanco's OPS+
in his years with Philly: 113, 112, 101, 102. I'm only using his time with Philly and not St Louis since he went from Philly to Detroit.

His years with Detroit: 127, 81, 123. Polanco's career OPS+ is 100.

Izturis' career HIGH OPS+ is 88. Most of the time, he is in the 60s. Career average of 67. Neifi Perez career OPS+: 63.

by rfloh on Sep 29, 2007 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Polanco's OPS+
Wow.  My memory has failed me.  Always thought Cesar's OBP was higher.  Oh well, he steal bases and plays SS.  Is that worth anything?
Sharlon Schoop: "It's only stealing if you get caught...more than 54% of the time"

by Woody Wins on Oct 1, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Grant said "Ortizes"

I like that.

I would like to also hear Matt Holiday thrown into the mix at some point.

If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Sep 28, 2007 3:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
We don't need Matt Holliday. We have Dan Ortmeier.
Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Sep 28, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
me scratches head...
Holiday = .338
.403/.606 with 36 knocks.
Ort = .276/.307/.476

help me out here.

If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Sep 28, 2007 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Darwin
my assumption: sarcasm

http://mccoveychronicles.com/story/2007/9/22/33629/9441

Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Sep 28, 2007 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Darwin
i can has bonus points for subtle anagram?
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Sep 28, 2007 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Darwin
You can has cookie now. But that's it.
Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Sep 28, 2007 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Darwin
http://lolsecretz.blogspot.com/
Billy Hayes: Nine more big-league plate appearances than you.

by delorean on Sep 28, 2007 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Darwin
Er...no deal.
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Sep 28, 2007 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
It'd be nice, but it's not going to happen anytime soon.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Sep 28, 2007 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
why? because we don't have the $? we've got a sudden influx of that
If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Sep 28, 2007 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
He's not a free agent til after 2009, and I doubt the Rockies would want to trade with us, especially a player of Holliday's caliber.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Sep 28, 2007 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I signed him in Baseball Mogul.

Therefore, it can happen.

Steve Kline: Pretty okay, but only on a whole season basis and not based on what he's doing now.

by groug on Sep 28, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
baseball mogul?!?! do you play the online version? ive been addicted for over a year now.

by projectmayhem713 on Sep 28, 2007 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
No, the computer I play on isn't currently on the Internets.
Steve Kline: Pretty okay, but only on a whole season basis and not based on what he's doing now.

by groug on Sep 28, 2007 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I signed up for the online version once but never played it. I've been playing the offline one for years though.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Sep 28, 2007 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Wow, really?  I've only been playing for like a month and I'm kinda tired of it.  I was probably just going to quit whenever I got to winning the World Series every year on the hardest difficulty.
Steve Kline: Pretty okay, but only on a whole season basis and not based on what he's doing now.

by groug on Sep 28, 2007 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I don't really play it consistently. It's usually during the offseason when I'm desperate for some hot baseball action that I binge on some Moguling.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Sep 28, 2007 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
this is actually the only game i CAN get into. my roommate bought a wii and an xbox 360 and we have a dozen games for each and yet the only thing that entertains me is trying to get the 2010 giants to win the world series with a $30M budget.
Dodgers fans eat their young.

by redhornet78 on Sep 29, 2007 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
well baseball mogul online is great, if you find the right league. you play against other human controlled teams, so it takes the predictable computer element out of it.

by projectmayhem713 on Sep 28, 2007 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Bear in mind that the 2006 Tigers had the advantage of a horrible AL Central that year, including a hilariously underperforming Indians.

The Giants, in the meantime, are stuck in an NL West that features blossoming organizations in Arizona and Colorado, not to mention the Kevin Towers regime in San Diego and the Logan White stud-factory in L.A.

It's looking bleak.

by drelmoraisin on Sep 28, 2007 3:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
2005 and 2006 were the years for slumping teams at the end. The White Sox almost lost the division to the Indians in 05 and then went on to win the Series. Detroit lost the division to the Twins on the last day of the season in 06 but made the Wild Card, and you know how that story ended. St. Louis was similiarly sucky down the stretch.

Now we have a host of teams stumbling to get into the postseason in 2007. I'd put some money on one of the NL teams winning it, if just for this wacky trend of mediocrity to end the year.

Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist. Not boring: Emmanuel Burriss. Not facist: THE RETURN OF SF Dugout

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 28, 2007 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Fortunately, the Dodgers still have Ned Coletti.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Sep 28, 2007 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

A HORRIBLE AL central?
The wild card, the Tigers, came out of that division.

The THIRD placed team was the reigning WS champions, who won NINETY games. Just because the Indians didn't live up to some peoples' (over)expectations / hype doesn't mean that the division was HORRIBLE.

by rfloh on Sep 29, 2007 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Teixera sure would be nice, but he has "Yankee mega-signing" written all over him.

There really are some intriguing names there though.  Who knows where they'll be a year from now, but as of now, it seems like there are some good reclamation projects, solid vets, and promising youngsters there.

now if we can just get our hands on a legit middle of the lineup hitter in next year's draft...

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 28, 2007 4:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I thought Teixeira was assumed to go to the Orioles since he's form Baltimore.
Steve Kline: Pretty okay, but only on a whole season basis and not based on what he's doing now.

by groug on Sep 28, 2007 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
I guess I just feel like he's EXACTLY the type of player I think NY will be looking for after next season.  It's not like they have a lot at first, and if they lose AROD they'll need a hitter like Tex.

But Baltimore works too.  Either way, I just have a hard time seeing him wind up in SF.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 28, 2007 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please Include Andruw Jones
From Rotoworld:

   Andruw Jones' agent Scott Boras told the Atlanta Journal Constitution that Jones won't take a "hometown discount" to remain in Atlanta next season.

"Andruw Jones took a discount to stay in Atlanta last time," Boras said. "He probably took 30 or 40 million less to stay, because he likes Atlanta and enjoys playing in Atlanta. But as he said earlier in the year, he wants his fair market value [this time]." Boras intends to seek a $17-$20 million per year deal despite Jones coming off a career-worst season -- .222 average, 26 homers, 94 RBI.

Andruw Jones at $17-20 million per year deal is fair market monies. He played this season with a very painful hyperextended elbow. Jones will be  only 31 years old, would be a nice fit in CF and could bat in 3, 4 or 5 hole for years to come. Sabean should at least call Boras and inquire.

by wilriv21 on Sep 28, 2007 4:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Please Include Andruw Jones
No.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 29, 2007 3:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
The great thing about the Tigers as a comparison is that they didn't have a lot of positional talent come up from their organization.  If that isn't a perfect parrallel to the Giants I don't know what is.  (And while you could argue that the Giants don't have anybody the calliber of Granderson in the system [at least soon], he really wasn't THAT good offensively in 06)

I think the key thing with the Tigers is that they used just about every means available of acquiring talents.  Trades, free agents, farm system....  This is the model approach.  Improve the ballclub by any means.  Small moves are as good as big moves, sometimes.  So long as they improve the club.  

A little luck doesn't hurt either.  Both Pudge and Magglio were actually bad free agent signings at the time.  Ordonez's contract was the rough equivalent to Edgardo's here.  Only Mags worked out for the Tigers.

Oh, and another parallel...  Young pitching.

Only 975 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Sep 28, 2007 5:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
And Pudge may have lost his home run power after going off the roids, but he still had his hitting eye, which in their cavern of a stadium is more important.
Rehabbing for the Giants, Roooooooooooooos Ortiz

by Hac Man on Sep 28, 2007 8:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
didnt the tigers fire eveyone at the end of 03? correct me if i am mistaken

if im not, the giants are already going about it the wrong way

my greatest fear is that this team will look alot like those early 80s and early 90s (pre bonds) teams, albeit with much better starting pitching

 

by bacci40 on Sep 28, 2007 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
...exactly what we're hoping the Giants won't do.

What do you mean "we" kemosabe?

I'm hoping the Giants sign both Jones and Rodriguez. The idea they should stay away from such talent because it would save them a few bucks is crazy in my book. I want to see the very best possible Giants team on the field. I don't care about the cost it takes to put it there. There are no special entries into the playoffs reserved for teams who do really well with low budgets. If Magowan and friends want to own this team they need to spend the money to win.

I do realize there are limitations to what the Giants can pay players, but if you think they have reached that limit with the current payroll I've a great orange bridge I'd like to sell you.

by Sayhey on Sep 29, 2007 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
You realize that you would need like a $150 million dollar payroll to accomodate three players making between $60 and $65 million dollars combined and still produce a viable team.  That's not happening.

by Newguy1 on Sep 29, 2007 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
This is horseshit!  And, frankly you know it!  The Giants could sign A-Rod for $30M/year and A-Jones for $20M/yr and the salary budget would only be $110M/yr total with the following roster:

LineUp:
Roberts/Davis LF
Frandsen 3B
Winn RF
A-Rod SS
A-Jones CF
Molina C
Durham 2B
Schierholtz/Ortmeier 1B
Bench:
Lewis OF
Davis/Roberts OF
Ortmeier/Schierholtz 1B
Aurilia 1F
Alfonzo or Rodriguez C
Rotation:
Cain
Zito
Lincecum
Lowry
Correia
BullPen:
Wilson
Walker
Hennessey
Chulk
Messenger
2 of Taschner, Sanchez, or Kline
     

by giantsrainman on Sep 29, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
Your $110 million team still isn't good enough to make the post-season IMO.

by sharksrog on Sep 29, 2007 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
You are of course ntitled to your opinion.  But, in my opinion this team would be no worse then the second best pitching team in the NL West behind only the Padres and no worse then the second best offensive team in the NL west behind only the Rockies.  So, I just don't see how this team would not have a good shot at the post season in 2008.

by giantsrainman on Sep 29, 2007 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
What I have is the Giants committed to about 65 million in salaries (including deferred salaries) for 2008. Signing both Jones and Rodriguez should be in the neighborhood of 45 million extra dollars for a total of about 110 million in players salaries, a substantial increase over this years payroll of between 90 and 95 million. This doesn't count any relief they would get from trading players like Roberts, Winn, or Kline. Just how do you get that to 150 million?

Do I think the Giants will do this? Hell no. They've shown no sign they will do what it takes to win. It is what they should do.

by Sayhey on Sep 29, 2007 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Parallel Drawin'
The problem with the 2008 potential free agent list is that I don't see many of the top potential free agents truly being allowed by their present teams to become free agents.

And the Giants haven't signed a top free agent from another team since they signed Barry Bonds on 12/8/92.

by sharksrog on Sep 29, 2007 6:13 PM PDT reply actions  

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