Well, we're not sure yet.

BA's summer MVP, Luke Greinke, was both a top hitter and pitcher in the Valley League, but his future is clouded.  He has a low-90's fastball and plus slider, which doesn't make for a Top-3 pick pitcher.  He's supposedly a better pitcher than hitter, too.

Aaron Crow, a junior out of Missouri, was noted in BA by one scouting director as the #1 overall pick.  But he's not a fireballer, which usually is a Top-3 signifier.  Will he be enough to push one, if not both, Alvarez and Smoak down?

Yonder Alonso, a Junior from Miami, should also force himself into the discussion with his prodigious power, but will the power and his overall hitting prowess push back an all-around prospect like Smoak at the same position?  I'm not sure I'd agree with DrB in thinking that Smoak and Alonso are at the same level, or that Smoak may be lesser.  If Alonso is the better all-around hitter, Smoak is the better all-around player.  Outfielder Dennis Raben, Alonso's teammate, also is a big power hitter, but less polished.

One of the top college pitchers is Christian Friedrich, who sounds a lot more like Zito than anyone.  He may be the closest to being pro ready, which'll help, but he's the safe pick (Hi, Pittsburgh).

This is all before the high school players emerge, which should tantalize teams with room for youth like Kansas City and Florida.

There are some other draft questions to consider.  Will the likely top picking team, Tampa Bay, go for another third baseman in Alvarez after drafting Evan Longoria tops not long ago?  Will Pittsburgh, without Littlefield, finally stop drafting safe?  They are real wild cards.  The Orioles took the top college hitter last year, will they go pitcher?  And will the Royals go cheap again, or splurge again?

I honestly believe that if the Giants get to #5 overall, they have a good shot at a college hitter, with three probably worth getting (Alvarez, Smoak, and Alonso).