Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

by JT Jordan on Sep 22, 2007 12:36 AM PDT

I never thought I'd see a title like this, let alone type it myself. But, what the hell.

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wrote an article speculating that Dan Ortmeier could very well be the next Matt Holliday. I'd post the link, but it's insider access, and hell, I'm not even subscribed to them. So I did some looking into it and found some very startling comparisons between the two players, stat-wise. I've only highlighted some statistics, you can look up the others if you'd like.

Matt Holliday:

.275/.348/.424 (.772 OPS), 1 HR/36 AB, 32% H XBH, 1.7 K:BB

Dan Ortmeier:

.271/.342/.433 (.775 OPS), 1 HR/36 AB, 36% H XBH, 2.3 K:BB

I'm pretty sure Baggarly's just blowing hot air, but it makes for an interesting discussion. What are the odds of Ortmeier becoming the next Matt Holliday? The athleticism is there, the tools . . .maybe, maybe not.

My personal opinion is he won't. But for the optimists and the Ortmeier lovers out there, there ya go. I don't know if the Ortmeier-Holliday comp is an apt one, but it sure got me wondering.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I think Baggarly meant Dan Ortmeier....the next Billie Holliday. You know the tune: "Fourth Outfielder-slash-Backup First Baseman Sings the Blues."

Jesse Foppert: Welcome home, my son. And meet your adopted brother, Kelvin Pichardo. He's from the Dominican Republic.

by leftymalo on Sep 22, 2007 12:48 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

It's Billie Holiday, yo.

I adopted Omar and have nothing good to say about this team. Footy season has kicked off, so I don't watch the Giants much anymore.

by PacBellBoozer on Sep 22, 2007 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

The odds aren't very good. But guys like Matt Holliday and Dan Uggla should remind us that no matter how much we think we know, there will always be players who surprise us.

Which is why I'm holding out hope for Frandsen, lewis, Davis, Ortmeier and Schieholtz.

"The fact the Giants have 11 free agents concerns Barry." Jeff Borris, last off-season

by thehavenot on Sep 22, 2007 12:57 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I totally agree. The only 100% proven way to find out if so-and-so will be good is to play them enough to give you an adequate sample size. As in, something resembling a full season. Look at how the Rox and the D'Bags and so many other teams stick with struggling youngsters throughout the season. The Giants need to train themselves to do this.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Sep 22, 2007 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

It'd be awesome, but I'd say Holliday is an example of a guy who developed a lot better than anyone could have hoped for. I wouldn't compare other player's minor league stats to his and then assume that player will make as huge of strides as he did.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 22, 2007 4:15 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I like Ortmeier, but from what I've seen of him so far he's a marginal major leaguer. Comparing him to Matt Holliday, who might be the MVP this season, is a joke, and the joke is on us. If a good first baseman shakes loose this year on the trade market, if the Giants are smart (and they haven't been lately) they should be all over it.

Randy Messenger: "I'm back, you big headed fool. Stop bringing in Atchison and Munter"

by rxmeister on Sep 22, 2007 5:43 AM PDT reply actions

No

by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2007 6:23 AM PDT reply actions

Yes

Carlos Pena.

Randy Messenger: "I'm back, you big headed fool. Stop bringing in Atchison and Munter"

by rxmeister on Sep 22, 2007 7:20 AM PDT reply actions

Ortmeier was never a top 10 prospect

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Sep 22, 2007 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Ortmeier was never a top 10 prospect

Probably not (don't recall) but he was considered good enough to be a starting corner OF with 20-20 seasons for much of his time in the minor league until he reached Norwich, the black hole for power.

I agree with the statement about the dangers of comparing minor league stats and making a comparison. The Baggarly article also noted their similar body size plus the fact that both are "athletic".

The Holliday and Uggla are surprises because they happen so infrequently. However, I see no problem hoping that Ortmeier meets the potential that others had seen for him when he was at the lower levels of the minors.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 22, 2007 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions

How long did it take Carlos Pena

to develope?

He's finally fulfilling his potential at the age of 29.

by rfloh on Sep 22, 2007 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: How long did it take Carlos Pena

I have no problem with them giving Ort the job next year and seeing what he can do, I just would be surprised if he turns out to be more than a below average offensive first baseman. I also see the possibility of him striking out 175 times.

Randy Messenger: "Pat Misch is going to get his first win of the season?? Not if I can help it!!!"

by rxmeister on Sep 22, 2007 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

The difference in strike outs to walks points to a plate discipline discrepancy that will become ever more blatant at the major league level.

by NearestNorwich on Sep 22, 2007 8:40 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

man, you guys hate on Ortmeier like he's Bonds or someone.

he's the real deal.

The rally pumpkin guy, round and full of seeds; unlike the Giants.

by jtoj on Sep 22, 2007 10:26 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

Saying that Dan Ortmeier isn't Matt Holliday is not really hating on him.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 22, 2007 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

This post is deeply confused.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Sep 22, 2007 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

Matt Holliday is a capable major leaguer, but as a star he is a creation of Coors Field. Away from Coors, his career numbers are only .272/.330/.448/.778.

Decent numbers, but hardly star material. Holliday's OPS is more than 300 points higher at home than on the road. He's the new Todd Helton, only even more exaggerated.

by sharksrog on Sep 22, 2007 10:30 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

the games in Coors count too, you know.

his adjusted OPS+ is 150 and his VORP is 70.7, 4th highest in the NL. his defensive metrics are all quite good.

Coors inflates his numbers for sure, but he is a star quality player. (and so was Helton, and Walker, etc.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 22, 2007 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

He's hitting .298 on the road with 11 homers, compared to .370 at home with 25 homers. If he played in a fair ballpark, he would be a solid .300 hitter with about 25 dingers. He's a helluva player, but Coors makes him look elite, which he clearly isn't. Considering the way Pedro Feliz rakes every time the Giants go there, I wonder what he would do if he were there for 81 games. He wouldn't put up Holliday numbers, but he certainly would be incorrectly looked upon as a much better offensive player than he is.

Randy Messenger: "Pat Misch is going to get his first win of the season?? Not if I can help it!!!"

by rxmeister on Sep 22, 2007 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

IMO Helton was a star exclusive of Coors, Walker a bit less so, and Holliday almost not at all.

by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2007 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

We'll have to agree to disagree. His numbers are, again, certainly inflated by Coors, but not just anyone can hit .374/.433/.726 over the course of 78 games at Coors.

And I've always found that the assumption that a hitter's road stats are indicative of his true talent level to be fallacious. Wasn't Mark Teixeira supposed to be "just okay" because his road stats were so much worse than his home stats? Alfonso Soriano? Not to mention, wouldn't Holliday's road stats be slightly deflated due to the fact that he plays so many of his road games at SBC, Petco and Dodger Stadium?

Holliday isn't on the same level as Helton or Walker, but to completely discredit him due to his home ballpark is to oversimplify things, IMO.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 24, 2007 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

Perhaps while agreeing to disagree, we should get a few things straight:

. I didn't "completely discredit" Matt Holliday. I said that as a STAR he was a creation of Coors Field. I called him "a capable major leaguer" regardless of where he played.

. Would you say that a guy who hits .321 with a SLG of .481 is a pretty darn good hitter? (For comparison, Tony Gwynn was a career .338 hitter with a career SLG of .459.) That sounds like a pretty good hitter to ME. Yet that .321 BA, .481 OBP guy is NEIFI PEREZ at Coors.

Away from Coors, Neifi has hit only .246 with a .330 SLG. Notice that Neifi's batting average of .321 at Coors is within 10 points of his SLG outside Coors?

. You mentioned Alfonso Soriano as an example of a guy who did his hitting at home, yet his .840 OPS on the road is within four points of his .844 OPS at home. Holliday's OPS of 1.086 at Coors is over 300 points higher than his .778 OPS on the road.

. You mentioned Mark Teixeira as another example. And, yes, Mark's .956 OPS at home is nearly 100 points higher than his .860 on the road. But, again, Matt's differential is more than three times as great even in this instance.

I will repeat my original statement: Matt Holliday is a capable major leaguer, but as a star he is a creation of Coors Field. Outside Coors, Matt is essentially Randy Winn. But while playing at Coors, Matt takes off his jersey to reveal his Barry Bonds undershirt underneath.

Randy Winn -- capable major leaguer. Barry Bonds -- definite star. Matt Holliday on the road -- capable major leaguer. Matt Holliday at Coors -- definite star.

I'm glad we are able to agree to disagree. I'm certainly comfortable with it.

by sharksrog on Sep 24, 2007 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

Matt Holliday's road OPS this year is .854, for a sOPS+ of 128. Randy Winn's overall OPS this year is .766, for an OPS+ of 98. I don't see the comparison. Even on the road, Holliday is more than just "a capable major leaguer".

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 24, 2007 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

whats does Baggerly base it on? the similarity in their early stats, lol?

how many Matt Holliday types reach MLB each year? 10? 20? and how many eventually turn into the next Holliday? 1 or none?

i hope Ortmeier does well but i dont really know why he would pan out when Linden and Niekro and countless others flopped..

by slojoe on Sep 22, 2007 2:56 PM PDT reply actions

not bloody likely

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 22, 2007 5:55 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I loved his three hit game today. It's almost like the idiot Bochy set him up to fail this weekend. He sits him three straight times against mediocre pitching in favor of Klesko, and then he plays him against Harang, who is one of the best pitchers in the league. Dan came through with three hits anyway, two of them off of Harang, and he scored the winning run. Take that, you big headed moron of a manager!!

Randy Messenger: "Pat Misch is going to get his first win of the season?? Not if I can help it!!!"

by rxmeister on Sep 23, 2007 5:39 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

True. Bruce Bochy sets up ALL his players to fail. I mean, what ELSE would you expect from a manager? :)

by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2007 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I would draw a different conclusion from the Holliday/Ortmeier comparison: It indicates that Ortmeier is never going to amount to anything. I mean, Holliday is the current poster boy for late bloomers, but when he was the age Ortmeier is now, he was in his third year in the league and in the middle of a .326/.387/.586 season.

But Holliday's success does illustrate why I'm so optimistic about Nate Schierholtz. Yes, it would be nice if Nate walked more. But he's shown a variety of hitting skills, he's made adjustments, and he was one of the best hitters in AAA this year at the age of 23. Anyone who can do that has a significant chance of developing into a star.

by Evan on Sep 23, 2007 9:03 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

I think Nate is the Giants best position prospect since Bill Mueller, but unless he changes his approach, he is always going to be limited by his inability to draw walks. Even if he hits .300, his OBP isn't likely to reach .350.

by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2007 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

Jeff Francoeur started taking more walks this year, I believe. Young hitters in the majors can improve on that skill, so it's not impossible.

I'm not sure it'll happen, but I'm optimistic. Mostly because I really really want good things to happen, so I'll believe they will.

Steve Kline: Pretty okay, but only on a whole season basis and not based on what he's doing now.

by groug on Sep 23, 2007 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Dan Ortmeier . . .the next Matt Holliday?

True, Jeff Francoeur has nearly doubled his walks this season (41 vs. 23 last year), but his OBP is STILL only .335. Jeff is STILL being limited by his inability to draw walks.

A Giant who HAS this season improved his ability to draw a walk is Kevin Frandsen, who has walked 16 times in 241 major league at bats. Last season Kevin walked only 15 times in a combined 393 at bats in the majors and minors. Kevin's numbers STILL aren't very good with regard to walks, but he has always shown a propensity for getting hit by pitches, so if he can get his batting average up close to .300, Kevin's OBP could be acceptable. In Kevin's case, it is his power that is lacking.

When a player increases his walk rate, it doesn't always stick. Pedro Feliz jumped from 23 walks in 503 at bats in 2004 to 38 walks in 569 at bats in 2005. But the last two seasons he has slipped back to 33 walks in 603 at bats last season and 29 in 535 at bats this year.

Pedro has improved his ability to take a walk -- but not by enough to get his OBP even up to .300. In fact, 2004 was the only season Pedro exceeded .300 in OBP, posting a .305 OBP despite just the 23 walks. That is because he batted a career-high .276, a figure he hasn't come within 22 points of, before or since.

Incidentally, I think Pedro might approach that .276 figure next season. This year he is hitting .249 despite a horrendous .252 BABIP. Pedro has never been even an average hitter on balls in play, but this year he is 19 points below his career average in that regard.

If Pedro can keep his strikeouts down next season and hit in a bit better luck, it wouldn't seem untoward for him to approach .270 or even exceed it. Pedro is over 30, so I wouldn't bring him back. But if the Giants did so, I wouldn't put the move in the Barry Zito category.

by sharksrog on Sep 24, 2007 12:49 PM PDT reply actions