Matt Cain Profile

by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Aug 28, 2007 12:04 PM PDT

http://vegaswatch.blogspot.com/2007/08/profile-matt-cain.html

In light of Cain's start tonight, I figured I'd post this profile of him and how good he's been in his career to this point. I agree with what's written here that he's overshadowed many times with Zito, Lincecum, and Bonds around and I think the paragraph copied below sums up nicely exactly how impressive he's been.

"What Cain has done by the age of 22 is not something that happens very often. Since 1901, only six pitchers have had a K/9 of over 7.5 while making at least 70 starts by the age of 22. If he makes six more starts this year, Matt Cain will add himself to the following list.

Dwight Gooden 194-112, 3.51
Vida Blue 209-161, 3.27
Frank Tanana 240-236, 3.66
Sam McDowell 141-134, 3.17
Bob Feller 266-162, 3.25
Dennis Eckersley 197-171, 3.50
Average 208-163, 3.41

I put the average in bold because it's completely insane. Frank Tanana had the highest career ERA of these guys, at 3.66. Dwight Gooden's 194 career wins comes in 5th out of 6. What Matt Cain has done by the age of 22 is truly remarkable, and he looks like he'll be a frontline starter for years to come."

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Tom Terrific

I keep coming back to Tom Seaver as the pitcher who Matt Cain most reminds me of. Tom was more refined when he first came up, then again, Seaver pitched at USC before turning pro.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 28, 2007 1:24 PM PDT 0 recs

Re: Tom Terrific

Is it just the motion or his overall makeup or what? I find this comparison interesting as well as encouraging. Do you expect the similar numbers out of Cain (assuming he stays healthy)?

I don't need to adopt anyone. "Your children have touched me and I'm pretty sure I've touched them too."

by camwoody on Aug 28, 2007 1:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Everything

Body type, size, delivery, quiet determination, unflappablity. He's Tom Seaver's clone.

If Matt Cain stays healthy and continues to develop his game, I do think he has HOF potential.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 28, 2007 2:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Everything

Body? Delivery? When Seaver came up he was a tall, skinny kid who brought his left knee all the way up to his chest and then practically scraped his right knee on the mound due to the extension of his leg drive. That finishing leg drive position is more reminiscent of Lincecum than Cain (though little else of the motion is), and Matty sure can't be called a skinny kid like young Tom Terrific was.

That doesn't make Matt's accomplishments any less dramatic or impressive, but I don't see the Seaver physical comp personally.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 28, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Everything

Here, like this:

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 28, 2007 2:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Everything

For Comparision:

Property of MLB, etc

Ben Copeland, because the Giants can't have enough OF prospects

by nvsfg on Aug 28, 2007 3:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Everything

Hmmm, that picture looks a lot skinnier than Matt does on my TV. Maybe there's something to this after all.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 28, 2007 3:06 PM PDT up 0 recs

Cain and Seaver

It's just two random pictures, but does it seem to anybody else that Tom leaned back more than Matt does?

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Aug 28, 2007 3:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Cain and Seaver

They all did back then. Look at Lincecum. He looks like Jim Palmer in many ways.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 28, 2007 4:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Cain and Seaver

So then Cain is an example of your "tall and fall" description?

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Aug 29, 2007 6:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Cain and Seaver

No. Rob Nen is/was. Cains a power guy drop/drive more than he used to be. I think a part of his problem coming up was when he was taught, that was the thing to teach, emphasis on compactness, shorter front leg stride, no lean back, keep the hands close to the body and way too much to go into in detail. Lincecum and Cole Hammel are evidence that the pendulum is swinging the other way to more emphasis on the back and legs

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 29, 2007 7:23 AM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Cain and Seaver

Good info; thanks!

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Aug 30, 2007 5:30 AM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Cain and Seaver

You know who Lincecum really reminds me of with his motion is Don Sutton, who also turned his back to the plate and then burst into a long stride (early on anyway, the burst slowed itself down mightily as the years went on).

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 29, 2007 7:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

Skinny?

Seaver was never skinny.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 28, 2007 3:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Skinny?

I don't think of him as being stocky (like Cain) until the mid-70s.

As a San Joaquin Valley product, perhaps nows the best time to give Seaver a shout out as being possibly the greatest Fresno-produced athlete ever!

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 29, 2007 7:28 AM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Skinny?

Whats really hard to believe is that he is going to be 63 this year.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 29, 2007 7:32 AM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Skinny?

I wouldn't mind it so much on him, if it weren't for what it says about me.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 29, 2007 7:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

Correct me if I misinterpret your earlier remarks

I think it fitting that in an Aggie town like Fresno, native son Tom Seaver is considered produce.

by Moggeee on Aug 29, 2007 10:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Everything

Tom got tremendous leg drive by having a fairly short stride and seemingly using his plant foot as a fulcrum to propel his arm forward. Matt has a powerful delivery, as well, but he gets his power from a longer stride and without dropping his core down nearly as far.

What has really impressed me about Matt this season has been on several bouncing balls hit up the middle where he had to jump to field them. For such a big guy, he can really get off the ground quickly.

by sharksrog on Aug 28, 2007 3:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

Short stride?

The inside of Seaver's trailing knee is dirty from hitting the mound, as is the inside of his trailing ankle. He ruined a pair of cleats every game from the drag off the rubber. His stride is well over 6 feet, with his lead leg parallel to the field which indicated an incredible amount of extension and drop. Thus the allusion of Lincecum's stride to Seaver's. Cain's stride is measurably shorter. Its not a short stride. Its just a normal stride that comes about of guys being taught to pitch compact. Compare the two. Judge for yourself.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 28, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Tom Terrific

I kind of see the stocky build though Seaver is not as tall. Both are power pitchers and each has a really nice 12-6 curve.

I think Seaver got more out of his legs and butt than Cain does. But thats more because of the way Cain was taught. Actually from the waist down Lincecum is more of a drop and drive pitcher than Cain.

Interesting story that Seaver tells about himself was that after he left the Mets, he encouraged opponents and scouts to spread the rumor that his fastball had lost quite a bit, and that he was relying more and more on his curve ball for outs. He got away with this for years, as the use and display of radar gun readings was not widespread. It was pretty funny actually. Guys would sit and sit on his curve ball and he would pump 4 seamer after 4 seamer by them while they would just shake their head and disbelief, look at their bats, shrug their shoulders, not believing what their eyes told them. And of course everytime they would crank up for the fastball, he would just snap off a Mr. Nasty and watch batters spin themselves into the ground swinging at the breeze.

Anyway, I still think that Cain could squeeze a few more mph out of his fastball if he wanted to. He's still not completely physically matured and won't for a couple of years. Also, he has learned to use his legs a little better than he used to and does a better job of pulling himself through with his left leg and landing foot than he used to.

Of course the key is to avoid injury. He and Lincecum both have had a lot of hi-pitch count innings as well as hi-pitch-count games for such an early age. Its the hi-pitch-count innings that are of more concern. Three 25-pitch innings are much more stressful on the body (not to mention the mental aspect) than 6 innings of 12-13 pitchs each.

Anyway, Watching Cain and Lincecum pitch is really fun.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 28, 2007 2:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Tom Terrific

Although I am optimistic about Matt's future, I don't expect the same numbers from him. The other guys averaged a 3.41 ERA. Matt's present career ERA is 3.95, and I wouldn't expect him to drop it by much more than 20 points if he goes on to a long and prosperous career. And that would leave Matt's ERA higher than any of the ones in the sample.

Let's not forget that while many of these guys EASILY cleared 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings (as Tim Lincecum likely will do in HIS first 70 starts, although clearly not by the age of 22), Matt indeed might not even quite make it.

Matt is averaging only 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season, and should he pitch 37 2/3 innings in his last six starts this season, he would need 28 strikeouts to in fact reach the 7.5 K/9 plateau. So Matt needs to average approximately 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings the rest of the way in order to achieve the goal.

He'll probably make it -- but just barely. And it seems likely to me that his ERA will also wind up being a little worse than the others in the group.

Now the group is a very fine one. To even come close to them would be a nice achievement for Matt. But, no, don't think he will turn out to be as good as most of these guys.

by sharksrog on Aug 28, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Tom Terrific

But wouldn't you say, overall, that those guys pitched during times where the league ERA's were generally lower? So is it fair to directly compare the ERA's? There's probably a way to compare them to their league's ERA to try to judge relative effectiveness, but I have no idea where those stats might be.

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Aug 28, 2007 3:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

Learning Curve

Cain is still quite young and, to my eye, is still on the steep part of the learning curve. I don't think we really know how good he can be yet. Depends on where he plateau's. I think I'm a bit more optmistic than you.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 28, 2007 4:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain Profile

Thank you for posting the article - interesting stats and reinforces our admiration for Matty and what a good job he is doing despite the lack of run support. I hope that this year imparts some lessons in patience and make him even better as a pitcher.

by APGiantsFan on Aug 28, 2007 3:32 PM PDT 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain Profile

The part that excites me the most is this:

He has gone from allowing 0.84 HR/9 in his first two years to 0.55 this year. This is no accident, as Cain is allowing less fly balls. Here are his FB (in blue), GB (in green), and LD (in red) rates over his three-year career [accompanying chart]

I don't know how to put the chart here, but the point is his GB/FB ratio is increasing and that's great. One of the main negatives said about Cain when he was coming up was his obscene FB%. He was obviously able to succeed in spite of that (although our park most likely helped that), but this is a nice trend.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Aug 28, 2007 5:38 PM PDT 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain Profile

Another reason, also, that his drop in k rate isn't hurting his performance. Slightly fewer ks, but much more ground balls = good shit. Eventually, this kind of improvement should help him keep his pitch counts low, too.

Hopefully he gets the k's back, regardless, because power is his bread and butter and it always will be, but as long as he's becoming a better pitcher, I'm happy.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him.

by howtheyscored on Aug 28, 2007 6:07 PM PDT up 0 recs