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Giants Contract Status

Hopefully this will make it easier for people to analyze and create potential options for this offseason.  You will find that I rounded some numbers off, to make this a little bit easier.

Salaries are obviously in Millions of dollars.

Name           '07 Salary  '08 Salary  '09 Salary

Barry Bonds       15.8
Barry Zito          10.0        14.5         18.5
Ray Durham        7.0          7.5
Pedro Feliz           5.1
Dave Roberts       5.0         6.5          6.5
Randy Winn         4.0          8.0          8.25
Omar Vizquel       4.0
Rich Aurilia          3.5          4.5
Bengie Molina      4.0          6.0          6.0
Mike Matheney     2.25        2.0*
Ryan Klesko        1.75
Steve Kline         1.75         1.75
Noah Lowry         1.12         2.25         4.5
Matt Cain              .4            .7           2.65
Kevin Correia        .4
Brad Hennessey    .4
Vinnie Chulk         .4
Eliezer Alfonzo      .4                      
Jack Taschner       .4
Jonathan Sanchez   .4
Kevin Frandsen      .4
Russ Ortiz            .4
Tim Lincecum        .4                      

Rajai Davis      
Patrick Misch

Armando Benitez    7.6
Mark Sweeney         .95
Matt Morris             9.5

-------------------------------------------------
Total                  ~87.0        57.7         46.4

Estimated
Discrepancy:          8.0

Pitching:
Starting                21.0      
Relieving              11.75

Lineup/Bench        54.25  

*Mike Matheney contract buyout in '08

The estimated discrepancy is about $8M and it is there because I heard the estimated payroll for this year is around $95M.  I don't know exactly what the $8M entails, but I am assuming it is for mostly minor leaguers, maybe even signing bonuses.  If anyone wants to add to this so that we have a better idea of exactly what the payroll is, I would greatly appreciate it.  I understand that 5.8M of Bonds' contract is deferred, although I do not know for what year, and I do not know if this counts against the lux-tax threshold.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Giants Contract Status
So of course I will get to my suggested offseason moves.  First of all I think most of us would agree that we need to at least TRY to move Durham, Roberts and Winn.

For Durham, who is owed 7.5M next year, I think it would be possible to move him by eating 4.5M of the contract.  Will someone pay 3M to take a chance on Ray rebound?  I do.

Roberts has shown that his injury at the beginning of the year was responsible for his terrible start.  Since returning he has had decent numbers, especially against righties.  Moving him should be easier than we imagined in May.  He is owed 6.5/yr over the next two years and I wouldn't be surprised if we only had to eat 3M to ship him out.  10M for 2 years of Roberts should be reasonable enough for another GM.

And Randy Winn.  He should be much easier to move from the standpoint of his value.  But he can nix the trade to 10 teams, so it might be harder than expected.  I wouldn't think we would have to eat much of his contract, maybe 2-4M of the '08 salary.  Eat a couple mil, ask for only a minor leaguer in return, and I think we could move Randy.

Because of having to eat some of the salaries, moving these 3 guys won't be as helpful in '08 as it will be in '09.  But nonetheless, we could clear up over 10M for '08.  That would be a great first step in the rebuild.  And considering that their replacements will cost less than 2M combined, we can sprinkle that money in other places.

Lets see where that puts us.  57.7M in committed monies for '08, goes to about 46M committed if we move Durham, Winn and Roberts within the framework I suggested.  Considering my 8M discrepancy off of the 95M payroll, that leaves us about 41M to work with, but keep in mind, some of that is going to go to re-signing the kids.

I would like to see the front office open up the pocketbooks a little more next year.  Up the payroll by 10M, putting it around 105M/yr, and go out and get A-Rod.  A bunch of people that are against signing A-Rod are thinking that we won't have anyone around Alex to protect him, and thus it will be just like the Barry-walk-a-thon version 2.0.  But the reason I think we should bring A-Rod in, for about 6 years, is two-fold.  First, it will give the fans a good reason to continue to fund the Giants endevors.  If we do not make some serious splashes in this FA, I fear we will lose some of the fans that help to keep our payroll high.  Second, by the time we are ready to compete again, A-Rod will be in the heart of our lineup, right where we want him.  By signing A-Rod, the front office is saying to the fans, this is a new era of Giants baseball, and although we may suck in '08, we have one huge piece of the future that is going to get us a championship.

Why A-Rod comes to SF?  Becuase we have a fanbase that is 1 million times better than the NY fanbase.  And as for a city, SF is much more beautiful, has much less drama, and yet has all of the great things that big cities provide.  No tabloids, no stress, and he still gets paid how much he wants.  He can pursue Barry's record in peace, while we go through this temporary young talent audition phase.  We know he wants to get a ring, and he would have to be patient while we get our next great team organized.  But we explain to him how we have built a solid pitching staff, and how over the next two years, we will be trying to bring in another marquee player to pair up with him, while we simultaneously develop prospects.

By opening the pocketbooks to get A-Rod, we will have 51M to work with, 30M goes to Alex.  That leaves us 21M to get a lot done.

Resign Feliz for 12M - 2 Years.  If we are trying out a bunch of new prospects, why not keep our longest standing project.  His defense warrants playing time, and it seems like he has been making steps each year with respect to his hitting approach.  Of course they are baby steps, but my point still stands.  If he all of a sudden starts putting things together, it will be good for us as he will be easy to move contract-wise and would return a tasty prospect.

The rest of the money can be used to re-sign the young, cheap kids, both pitching and position players.  I assume Lincecum will get a contract that is somewhere within the framework of Cain's and Lowry's contracts - cheap for what we are getting.  

If there is any leftover money, we can go out and sign one more "vet", maybe someone like Sean Casey, a career .995 fielding percentage at 1B, and a guy who hits for average - career .300.  His power has fallen off, but even if it didn't, it would still be hard for any left hander to come into our park and have success hitting for power.  So that doesn't concern me.

Try and trade Lowry for a good young MLB ready prospect.  

C - Molina
1B - McClain
2B - Frandsen
SS - A-Rod
3B - Feliz
LF - Lewis
CF - Davis
RF - Schierholtz

IF - Aurilia
OF/1B - Ortmeier
C - Knoedler

I left a couple spots out for some flexibility.  

That lineup has 100 game loser written all over it.  But then again so will just about any team that any of us try to write up.  The positive thing is that we will have created an atmosphere that is conducive to prospects.  Alex will provide the occasional thrill, along with the pitching, to keep us entertained for the next year.  

If any outfielders completely flop, we will have Horwitz, Timpner and Bowker in AAA.  Frandsen needs to be an everyday guy for at least a half year so we won't have to worry about him too much.  Having Ort and McClain covering 1st buys us at least a half year, hopefully more.

Going young helps us get our entire minor league system moving.  We may not have a lot in terms of position prospects, but between this year and next, I think we will be repleneshing plenty of young talent behind Alderson/Bumgarner/Noonan/Villalona/Fairley.  

Oh yeah, and some of the biggest moves we need to make is bringing in new coaches.  I know we are stuck with Bochy, but hopefully we can get rid of Leferversresfvevssresfveee and that dirty old Rag we have laying around.

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 2:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
A-Rod coming here seems like a long shot; A-Rod coming here to hit in the middle of that lineup seems an even more remote possibility.

I'm down with the "try out the kids" philosophy, mind you. It just doesn't seem like the way to lure an elite free agent.
 

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 23, 2007 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
That is why I said we should tell him he can just pursue the all-time home run record while we get things fixed over the next two years.  Plus we urge him to consider the fact that we have a strong pitching core that will likely only need 4 runs in support.  
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
If he's hot to pursue the HR record, he's not going to want to take over for Bonds as the boy most likely to be walked intentionally. Not that it stopped Bonds, but it didn't help.

And I don't know about you, but if I was considering a new job, "we suck now but we're going to fix that" is not really what I want to hear from my prospective employer. All the more so if I'm about to sign a 5+ year contract with said employer...

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 24, 2007 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that, but...
AT&T is probably not the place to pusue the record, even if you're RH.
Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 24, 2007 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
With A-Rod Bonds will resign for less money i think. Also, I'd rather get rid of Feliz and keep Omar and put A-Rod at 3rd.

by ejdacanay on Aug 23, 2007 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
that lineup is 100% improbable. i mean, it has knoedler on the roster. thats clearly not gonna happen
Free Justin Knoedler! (not by trading him to another team though)

by llamalimbo1 on Aug 23, 2007 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
No way we can win next season without Notgardo on the roster.
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 23, 2007 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Durham -- buy low and sell high
today and this off season, the giants would have to eat many millions to move Durham Sabean knows even if next year wasn't a contract drive year, it is likely Durham will have a much better year So I think he won't get moved until the trading dead-line next year and by then the giants will not have to eat any salary and may get a PTBNL in line with their two pending PTBNLs the downside (huge) is Durham filling up 2nd base for most of next year.

by melottfan on Aug 24, 2007 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Matheny buyout for '08?

I thought he was on a 3-year deal that started in '05 and would have ended this season.  What's the dealio?

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 23, 2007 2:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
$4M club option for '08 with a $2M buyout.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
(In my Cartman voice): Goaddamnit!
Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 24, 2007 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
I would love for the Giants to spend about $30 million for Bonds and a long term contract for Arod.  That right there might instantly make them a playoff team or at least contenders in the NL West.
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Aug 23, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
thats a powerful 1-2 punch right there, if we start davis and lewis and let them hit at the 1 and 2 spots, that is another dangerous combo with their fast speed, throw in vizquel and you get more speed.  bond and a-rod make the most feared 4 and 5 spots in the league.

with that all we need is bullpen help and i guarantee you, we will win at least 20 more games then we will this year.

by ejdacanay on Aug 23, 2007 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
I think we are set with Hennessey and Wilson as 8th and 9th inning guys, at least in a rebuild.  We really just need to go out and get one or two guys who can pitch really well with inherited runners.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Davis and Lewis?  If Bonds comes back, LF is occupied, so I think you'd be looking at a CF/leadoff platoon of those guys.
Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 24, 2007 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
I don't think A-Rod will sign here given the crappiness of any lineup we try and throw out there next year, but that said, I fully endorse trying to go out and get him.

I think the important thing is for Sabes to try and make the best trades possible early on to A) clear out some of the outfield payroll where we actually have cheap young players to take the place of our old guys, and B) trade Noah for hopefully two major league prospects, one of whom is Major League ready.  Then, Sabean will know what holes need to be addressed in the rest of FA (i.e. if Noah brings us a SS who's ready to go and a 1B who is still a year or two away, we know not to resign Omar and to go after a fill in at 1B-- or just let Ort do it... whatever).

On the pitching front, I'd like to see the Giants give both Sanchez and Misch a chance to start.  The important thing to remember is that we're going to suck so we may as well see what we've got.  If neither of them pan out, oh well, if one or both do, more cheap options in the rotation/trade bait to bring in positional prospects.  

It may sound silly, but the Giants real season next year might be in A ball, where we may (I hope) get to see the continued development of guys like Noonan, Culberson, and Villalona.  If Bumgarner, Alderson, and Fairley can join in and D'Allessio continues to hit and moves through the minors fast enough, we might really have something going for 2010 or 2011.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Aug 23, 2007 5:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
110% agree, if it is possible.

Other than that, 100% agree.

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
I really like Alex Rodriguez, especially if he can still play shortstop.  But the sad thing is that by the time the Giants are likely to be good, he will be about 37 years old.

As much as I like Alex, I wouldn't sign him at this point.

by sharksrog on Aug 23, 2007 6:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Alex is in great shape as the result of great habits.  I presume he will be maintaining his health.  By 2010 he will be 35, and I think he will still be very productive.  I would move him to 1B later in his career if need-be, but he will hit 3B for a while.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 23, 2007 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
IAWTC (as the kids say!!!1!!!1)

Despite A-Rod's size and athelticism makes him a perfect candidate for a SS >>> 3B >>> 1B continuim as his quickness fades. (You just pray the bat stays  sharp if you sign him to a long deal.)

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 24, 2007 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
The thing is, the fielding stats suggest that he's not a particularly good third baseman these days (which jibes with what I see when I watch him), so it's hard to imagine that he could still cut it at short.

by Evan on Aug 24, 2007 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
From day 1, he was never as good at 3B as he was at SS, so I'm not sure how much to make of that. (Defensive stats debate in 3...2...)

Even "not particularly good" is probably "good enough" when it comes with that type of offense.  Trying to decide where to play ARod seems like a nice problem to have.  :-)

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 24, 2007 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
What is the deal with the contracts for guys from our farm system? Do they automatically make the league minimum, and how long do we have their rights for?

by joebirdie3 on Aug 23, 2007 8:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Whatever happens this offseason, we need to do something about the infield. We have the cheap players to play outfield, but nobody ready to play infield. Problem is, A-Rod is the only real decent free agent infielder on the market to be a real lineup presence. Everyone else is a role player. Big FA bats are outfielders, but we have young players ready for their shot out there. The only other way to get a decent bat on the infield is to trade someone like Lowry. It's A-Rod or bust. We are screwed.

by joebirdie3 on Aug 23, 2007 8:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
No player is worth 30 mil a year especially when you have a 90 mil payroll.

JUST SAY NO TO AROD.

If we sign him this team will be crap until he leaves.

People complain cause Bonds has stopped this team from rebuilding (which is BS. Management didnt have the guts to make a change and is running a smear campaign against Bonds to cover its own mistakes) and with Arod this team will have even more trouble rebuilding cause he will be taking even more of the payroll not to mention Zito.

by covenant on Aug 24, 2007 11:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Everyone across MLB is taking more payroll.  It is the nature of the times.  Inflation seems to be quicker and more noticable than ever.  That said, one stipulation I listed is that management increase the payroll by $10M to get A-Rod.  And it is rumored that we are around $95M this year.

Getting A-Rod doesn't seem much different to me than getting Barry Bonds back in the day.  Bonds was 30 I believe, A-Rod is 32.  

A-Rod seemed to like SF in his brief stints here this year.  If he gets paid the same to go anywhere he wants he will have to like SF A LOT considering that we are not competing for a championship now.  But like I eluded to, there will not be any immediate pressure on him.  He can just relax while we fix our situation.  Plus he will undoubtedly be "the man" whereas in New York, they are only now starting to realize he is the man and treating him accordingly.

We have a lot of cheap young talented pitching that is not going to need a ton of run support to be successful.  He has been on a Yankees team that has been stacked with hitters for years now and they have not been able to win it all since he arrived.  Mainly because their pitching hasn't been solid enough.  

So landing A-Rod doesn't put us that far away from a team that can contend.  Especially with the rate that our young pitching talent is learning.  And of course we should dangle the SS position to him.  It is no secret that is where he wants to be, and for a couple years we let him have SS.  When he starts to show signs that he cannot cover SS anymore we can push him to a corner, but the point is that he is already inked.

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 24, 2007 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Even with a payroll that reaches $95 million, having two players that account for more than half of our lineup's payroll isn't advisable.

With a roster that is lacking in so many positions, I would imagine it'd be wiser to spread the wealth.  For $30 million, we could have Torii Hunter, Mike Lowell and Sean Casey (not suggesting this, I am merely making an example).

The 2008-2009 free agents have some more attractive options at positions we need help with.  I'd prefer to just play the kids, evaluate, and then make our splash in the following offseason.  But if we want a solid CF, then this is the year to do it.

Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by Anticon23 on Aug 24, 2007 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
You are kidding yourself.  Torii Hunter will cost $20M/yr, Lowell will cost $15M/yr and Casey will be about $5M/yr.  So you are off by a mere $10M...pocketchange.

I'd rather have A-Rod and Bonds for $40M/year than those three guys.

If we miss on A-Rod it makes getting Texiera next year that much more imperative.

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 24, 2007 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
IMO Torii Hunter won't be making $20 million, he'll be around $15-17 million/year.  Mike Lowell is looking for $11-14 million/year . . .

Besides, that's meant to be an example and not necessarily meant to be taken literally.  The point is, we could find cheaper alternatives that can fill more holes than by paying one guy $30 million to play one position.

Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by Anticon23 on Aug 24, 2007 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Soriano got $17M/year in last year's contract and Hunter is a gold-glove caliber outfielder, and is hitting the shit out of the ball this year.  Given the rising inflation I would expect Hunter to get a minimum of $18.5M/year.  With gold-glove caliber defense I think he will get $20.

As for Lowell, he is having a great contract year as well.  He flashes a much better glove than Aramis Ramirez, and hits virtually the same clip (Aramis has a little more power and a little less OBP).  Ramirez got $15M/yr this last offseason and I see no reason why Lowell won't get something right around $15.

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 24, 2007 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Put the gun down and back away
If those salaries are correct, Sabean should just go straight to the bargain bin.  While Hunter would be an excellent pick-up he is 32 yrs old and Lowell is even older. Just say "No".

by wilriv21 on Aug 24, 2007 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Put the gun down and back away
I don't want Hunter or Lowell either.  They will cost too much for what they provide.  I'd be fine with them if we already had two great hitters, but by the time we get two great hitters these guys will be gone.  And something about Hunter screams extended DL to me.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 24, 2007 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
I was just having a nightmare and imagined that Sabean took over Cash's job? Whew! that was scary.
Why would a class act like ARod take up with a bunch of losers lead by the likes of Bochy?
yankeefan "If I had played my career hitting singles like Pete (Rose), I'd wear a dress." Mickey Mantle

by yankeefan57 on Aug 27, 2007 4:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Giants Contract Status
Why would A-Rod want to stay in NY with a bunch of overpayed, garbagekids who can't win with a $200M payroll?  He gets all of that criticism from fans and media who all have their heads up their respective asses.  I wouldn't want to stay in NY either.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Aug 29, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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