Davis to get more playing time

Re: Davis to get more playing time

**a trade of Roberts would be even better

Winn actually has some quality left in him...Roberts is done. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't upset about trading Winn for the right price, but considering the other holes we need to fill (pretty much the entire infield), and with Barry most likely leaving, it wouldn't be horrible to stick with Winn, as his career numbers give you close to a .300 average.

Giant Expectations

by UnleashTheGore on Aug 16, 2007 9:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

"Barry most likely leaving" meme?

Seems like wishful thinking to me. Barry has been given so much leverage by the way that management has coddled him over the years, and given the choice, it sure seems that he'd like to play by the bay one more year. Sure, he'd do better as a DH, but I would bet one of my cats (not sure which) that if he plays in '08, it's in SF.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Betting cats

I would bet both of my girlfriend's cats that the Giants are going to win the World Series this year.

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Aug 16, 2007 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Betting cats

i dont like to bet with cats, i always win and they never pay up

by projectmayhem713 on Aug 16, 2007 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Given Roberts' age and contract status I don't think he is tradable. Given his stats, Winn might be. My only real point about trading Randy, and I like the guy, is that some room must be cleared in the outfield if the Giants are to make a run at some real help during the off season.

by Sayhey on Aug 16, 2007 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

If Bochy is saying that Davis is going to get more PT that only means that Roberts will get every start from here on out.

Now if we're lucky, maybe he'll try another shitheaded sideways slide into the catcher, rupture an appendix, and be put on the DL...FORCING Boch to play him. That is until Freddy Lewis is called up and Rajai is sent to San Jose for no reason.

Omar says, "Dammit gaffer! Bring in a few defenders, a mid-fielder or two, and nice pull w/Alan Smith."

by PacBellBoozer on Aug 16, 2007 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

You're really Brian Sabaen, aren't you? You've just got this Giant front office thingie down too pat. You may think you're being facetious, but I know legit Giants management thinking when I read it. I'm gonna be the first to start selling San Jose Giants Ragin' Rajai jerseys.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go Raj!!!! Hey hey hey!!!

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

The organization has clearly given up on Fred Lewis.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 16, 2007 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

which makes no sense :(

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 16, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Unless you work for the Giants front office. Then it makes perfect sense. You know how the last 2 managers always changed relief pitchers until they finally get to the guy who can't get anybody out? Its the same with position players. You keep rotating guys until you get to the oldest and most expensive and least contributory, than you make the guys with potential disappear down a black hole. Even if it means playing Kevin Frandsen in the OF for awhile. That takes real brains and innovative thought.

See. That was Easy.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

You really are this stupid. Lewis looks like an 8th grader in the outfield defensively. Hes down in triple A because instead of getting 1 or 2 starts a week, he'll get them all. So he will be learing with the bat as well as the glove. DAvis is a much more polished player than Lewis at this point. Roberts and Winn need to be showcased as much as possible so they can have any realistic chance of being moved in the offseason.

by SabeanSupporter on Aug 16, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Lewis has done a very nice job of converting fly balls into outs this season in RF, despite how he looks out there.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 16, 2007 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barking up wrong tree

E likes Davis. I just get the feeling he wants to see both him and Lewis played at this point.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

The real Brian Sabean shows himself

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Its a smart move considering one of those guys has to be moved for Lewis to get a ligimate amount of AB's next year. So just accept the fact that we suck major ass and the fact that this season was over about 2 months ago. We need to prepare ourselves for the winter meetings and giving Lewis playing time over 2 guys we are trying to move doesn't make any sense

by SabeanSupporter on Aug 16, 2007 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

What happens if the two guys go into a Matt Morris type nose dive?

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

What does that mean? If you've been watching the games you'd realize the opposite is happening. Roberts numbers are way up and Winn is having himself a nice season. He's been the second best player on the team. We need Winn to accumulate as much numbers as possible and we need to show that Roberts can play every day. It would make absolutely no sense to bench them.

by SabeanSupporter on Aug 16, 2007 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

SabeanSupporter,
Are you incapable of making a point without being a dick to other members of this site?

A while back, you said you were going to try to be nicer, but I'm not seeing it. I know people tend to be more dickish on the internet than in real life, but this place thrives on healthy discussion without uncessary name-calling.

I'll go out on a limb and guess you're not like this in real life. Please try to make your points without the insults. It's tiresome.

Thanks,
Goofus

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Dont get your panities in a bunch goofus. In 2 weeks you wont hear from me for 6 months.

by SabeanSupporter on Aug 16, 2007 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Why make us wait those two weeks? Better yet, why return after 6 months?

Let me slip you some advice ol buddy, ol pal, ol friend...Personally attacking users who've been here longer than you could imagine isn't a way to endear yourself to anyone. That is all.

Omar says, "Dammit gaffer! Bring in a few defenders, a mid-fielder or two, and nice pull w/Alan Smith."

by PacBellBoozer on Aug 16, 2007 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I'll tell you what, when get down to 250 LB's Ill start taking your advice

by SabeanSupporter on Aug 16, 2007 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Will someone ban this fuckwad already?!? Christ, how many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chances must he be allowed? Being a nuisance is one thing, but the personal attacks are the last straw.

Omar says, "Dammit gaffer! Bring in a few defenders, a mid-fielder or two, and nice pull w/Alan Smith."

by PacBellBoozer on Aug 16, 2007 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Why would either Roberts or Winn need to be "showcased"? They're not unknown entities. They're not coming back from major injuries or years of decline and ineffectiveness. Anybody who might want either has a very good idea what they'd be getting and the last 5-6 weeks of this season isn't going to change that one way or the other really.

by Roger on Aug 17, 2007 5:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Roger, my good man, allow me to respectfully disagree.

I think Roberts elbow injury and subsequent surgery was pretty major since he missed an entire month of the season. He's been putting up very nice numbers in the 2nd half: .349 .403 .431

Winn was coming off a sub-par year in 2006 (at least partly attributed to knee problems) and started off slowly this season. He's also putting up strong 2nd half numbers: .293 .346 .445

While both are known commodities, I thinkk showcasing might be needed to proove to other GMs that they're both back to the their normal level of play. Probably necessary if they're going to have any trade value at all.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 17, 2007 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

You may be right, but I tend to think that recent play is more of an issue for in-season deals. In the winter, GMs tend to look at career norms and more overriding trends IMO.

BTW Goof, I caught your note about coming to DC area and catching games. If you'd like, let me know the dates and if I'm available I'd be happy to meet up at a local bar, talk baseball, and go to a game with you (of course, you're entirely entitled to mumble something awkwardly about checking the dates, shuffle off, and never mention it again).

by Roger on Aug 17, 2007 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Sent you an email with our plans.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 18, 2007 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Yeah, between the two I think Lewis should get the playing time. He's going to do everything Davis can do (maybe not as good of a defender in CF) but with more power.

I love Davis but I think Lewis should get a chance too.

by xanthan on Aug 16, 2007 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Davis is a better basestealer, but both should be up. Roberts is clearly in the way....for two more years.

Congrats, Barry. You're the best there ever was in this game.

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2007 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I agree I don't see any reason why we couldn't have both Davis and Lewis playing everyday. Theyn aren't exzactly the same type of players The both can draw a walk and get on base, Davis is better defensively and can steal bases much better, but Lewis has more pop and he can still swipe some bags.

If Davis can put up .280/.375 numbers and steal over 50 bases while playing great defense, he is far from a 4th outfielder, that is a solid leadoff hitter. And so far from what we have seen Davis sure has the potential to put up these numbers.

As for Lewis, with his abilty to draw a walk and steal some bases ,plus he has some pop. I can't see any reason why he couldn't put up .275/.365 with 13-15HR's and steal 25 bases. Not bad production as a #2 hitter.

If you got two guys at the top of the order that get on base at .365-.375 and swipe 30-50 bases each , thats not bad at all, especially in a park like Pac Ball with all that room at their in the outfield.

The problem is we have to move Winn and Roberts. Winn at least gives you some production for his $$, but Roberts is just a horrible contract to move. We will have to pick up $$ off of both contracts in order to move these guys.

Then you have Nate Schierholtz, who is putting up great BA numbers and shows he has some pop in his bat. What do we do with Nate? And their are rumors going around that we might bring back Barry? I guess if Barry comes back Nate could still get a lot of AB's as a 4th OF.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you!

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Not to split hairs, but I don't think Lewis is in the same league as Davis as a base runner/base stealer.

I don't think Davis and Lewis are mutually exclusive. Davis is a pure leadoff-type guy and if Lewis developes his power and hitting stroke, he could be a #2. Those two would be fun at the top of the order.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you

If Davis longterm is even 75% of the player he's been since joining the Giants, then he's a quintessential leadoff man, and sets the table nicely for Lewis.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I agree with you

If he's 75% of the player he's been so far, then Dave Littlefield should submit his resignation immediately.

I wouldn't assume the organization has given up on Lewis, any more than they have given up on Schierholtz. Hopefully they have sent him back to Fresno with specific things to work on. Davis is just a better fit for the near term.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 16, 2007 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if you're going to believe Pitt's assessment

over your eyes, then you are beyond help.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Didn't mean to sound so jerkoffish.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

S'aright

I'm just saying, it was a good trade when we thought we maybe got a 4th outfielder in exchange for Morris without having to eat any of his contract. If it turns out we actually got a legitimate leadoff hitter, then the trade looks like absolute robbery. And that's without even seeing whether the PTBNL amounts to anything.

Don't get me wrong, I love what we've seen from Davis so far, but I have to invoke the Terrell Lowery Rule when looking at his stats with SF.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 16, 2007 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

How exclusive they are depends on the number of 4th OFs you want to carry on your roster.

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why don't you think Rajai could start

Especially in a leadoff role? Has it really gotten to the point where a non-powerful leadoff hitter is seen by some on this forum as a 4th outfielder, even if he exhibits possession of every other tool?

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Predict Raj's career OBA. If it's not .370/.380 or thereabouts, he's part of the problem. That's Brett Butler/Bill Mueller territory - aka, acceptable solid ML lead off hitter.

Unless you think he actually has some power, then I would be willing to accept .350/.360 ish

If he's more like a .340 OBA .410 SLG CF with good defense... well I guess he can start and bat 8th or something... but you are approaching 4th OF territory there

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Put it this way...

Juan Pierre hit .305/.361/.373 in Florida at age 25. It was his 3rd full year in MLB.

Juan Pierre is what Rajai Davis dreams of being.

Juan Pierre is not a solid ML lead off hitter.
Juan Pierre is a speedy guy who struck gold in rarified air of Colorado, and put together 2 acceptable seasons at age 25-26, and now is organizational deadweight for the Dodgers.

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

First, I don't think we really know what he's capable of with regards to OBP. It is nice to note, however, that in his 7 minor league seasons, his OBP is .375, and in his 2 seasons of majors, it's .393

Certainly he's playing above his head right now, as in his time with the Giants, his OBP is .418

I don't think there's really any reason at all to believe that he "dreams of being Juan Pierre". Where does that come from? Give me some real data points, not just "He's a career minor leaguer" or some such.

You spent most of your post talking about Juan Pierre. We're not talking about that guy. We're talking about Rajai.

Most here would agree that, when he's healthy, even Dave Roberts is potentially about as good as Juan Pierre, for a much lower price, and most people here would agree that Rajai is a lot better than Dave Roberts, from what we've seen.

So, WTF?

***

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

He's had 47 PAs in SF and is hitting .390.

That means exactly nothing.

His minor league pedigree is... I dunno... less than awe-inspiring. I am not an expert on this, but I would not expect a .375 OBP in the minors to directly translate to .375 in the majors - but it of course depends on park/league/age. And he's not very young cracking the majors part time at age 26.

Juan Pierre was just the first crappy speedy player I could think of.

I had to dig up RDs '07 Zips projections, but ..
.251/.301/.340 is not good.

Obviously, his success this year will improve the 08 projection... but this is significantly worse than, say... Fred Lewis': .256/.337/.382

These projections are pretty much worth what you pay for them ("zip"), BUT for minor leaguers I think they good job of "summarizing" career performace, and correct for age/league/park.

Summary: I give him the benefit of the doubt when I say that he will probably make a decent 4th OF.

Prove me wrong Rajai, prove me wrong.

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Dave Roberts: career OBP .343

I realize that's a low bar to set, but still. If he can be not as bad as the current problem, isn't that being part of the solution?

Anyway, there are only 3 NL leadoff hitters with an OBP over .370 this season: Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Johnson, and Jose Reyes. Willy Taveras is at .365 and everyone else is under .350. I think you overestimate the standard for "acceptable solid ML lead off hitter".

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 16, 2007 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But most of the others have power

As zen was saying, if you don't get obp high enough you better have some mashing ability.

At least of the competing teams, Soriano, Chris Young, Hart, Rollins all have ISO's over .200. Exception being SD but winning at the rate they are with their offensive output is somewhat unprecedented I'm guessing.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys want to go from worst to first

But these things happen in stages. We're simply not going to get a superstar at every lineup spot. Rajai is a friggin' gift. I'm happy as heck that he escaped Pittsburgh.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ARRRGH....

HE's PLAYED IN 10 FRIGGIN' GAMES!!!! WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HE IS!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: But most of the others have power

Not necessarily, stolen bases come into a account too as well as power. Davis looks like he can be effective in that regard, even if he's not going to hit for power.

Lets say he can steal a base every 10 at bats (I see that as being feasible rate for a good base-stealer, he's currently getting one every 7 at bats) then if you were to add those extra bases to his slugging percentage(and take away the occasions when he gets thrown out), it'd increase his SLG by 0.1, turning, say, a .400 SLG into a .500 effective SLG

Whilst that's obviously not entirely compatible, it does show the value of stolen bases in a leadoff hitter.

by GiantFan on Aug 16, 2007 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only one player can steal bases at that rate

And that's Jose Reyes who did it both last year and this. Others are close to the 10-1 (crawford, pierre). But to say that is feasible is ludicrous, 10:1 would put him at the top of the list.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Only one player can steal bases at that rate

Well, it was probably an overestimate, i just used 10 as it was a round number for a rough calculation!

The point remains the same though, even if the numbers aren't that accurate!

by GiantFan on Aug 16, 2007 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Yeah, I've got all kinds of problems with zebitz' (zenbitz's?) point.

Butler is a GREAT example of a classic lead-off hitter with no power but great OBP. To say that if he doesn't reach the Butler standard of OBP, he's unacceptable is way too high a standard.

Mueller was a great OBP guy, but in my mind was a classic #2 hitter. Davis' blinding speed and ability to steal a bag almost at will is a whole different set of tools that sets him apart form Mueller.

Davis does not need an OBP of 370+ to be a valued starter.

Let's look at his combined Pitt/SF numbers this season. Sample size warning: 107 PAs His OBP is .402; not bad! A lot of that is because of his hot bat (.326 BA). If he'd hit just .270, he'd still have a .350 OBP. 270/350/whatever would be fine with me from Davis. Not included in this equation is his ability help the offense by:

Forcing hurried errors by infielders worried about his speed
Stretching base hits into doubles & doubles into triples
Stolen bases
Avoiding GIDPs with his speed

Maybe I'm overly hopeful, but with the evidence to far, it's hard not be encouraged.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Another factor Goofus is his speed on the basepaths, The Pitcher is worried about him, and loses focus on the guy at the plate. I have seen this already as Davis becomes a distraction because of the threat he will steal a base, gives the guy at the plate a better oppurtunity to get on or drive him in.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

biggest myth in baseball...

having a fast baserunner on has no significant measurable effect on pitcher outcome. Perhaps a fast baserunner makes a difference, but if so, it is so small as to be irrelevant

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: biggest myth in baseball...

I disgree. A fast runner on the basepaths can affect a pitcher on the mound, especially late in the game. Tie ball game in the 8th nobody out Rajaii on 1st. The reliver out of the bull pen is going to be playing close attention to him. Enough to distract him to make a bad pitch.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm....

not trying to be mean but here it goes. All the objective evidence points the other way. I see no reason why I should care about your opinion.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

here's a little of the supportt

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/levitt/articles/speedscoresanderrors.htm

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: here's a little of the supportt

Thats some good reading. Intresting.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: here's a little of the supportt

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that article address reaching base due to error, not advancing or forcing an error once a baserunner reaches base? If so, then I don't think it is directly relevant to the case at hand, because RD's ability to affect a pitcher's concentration or effectiveness once on base is not addressed in the study.

by amoose on Aug 16, 2007 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: here's a little of the supportt

you're absolutely right, amoose. I was addressing tangentially the "speed causes problems" argument and not the run advancement issue. Either way you raise a fair point

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

here's the one...

I was looking for amoose

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ichiro.htm

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: here's the one...

Thanks, that clarifies the issue.
I found it particularly noteworthy that Ichiro's speed created "a total of 30 extra bases compared to the average runner. Depending on the base and the number of outs, advancing one base can be worth anywhere from a tenth of a run to half a run. So, without trying to put a value on each individual base gained, we can say that Ichiro probably created 6-12 extra runs with his speed in ways that are not already measured."
Seems minuscule over the long run, but 6-12 runs is nothing to completely disregard.

by amoose on Aug 16, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

speed has value in a very tangible way. Distracting the pitcher just is not one of them.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: here's the one...

Distracting the picther: From his data it looks like Iciro has no effect on the #2 hitter. But that takes to account that the PA for the #2 hitter are the same in the 1-6th innings as they are in the late innings. He has no stats separteing how well the #2 hitter did in a close ballgame late in the game(7th, 8th , 9th). My point is late in the game, with a tie or one rin lead. Davis or Ichiro on the basepaths will have more of a effect on the pitcher then early in the game.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'm....

You don't have to care about my opinion, Ive been watching baseball since I was a kid. I remember the fits the mid 80's Cards teams would give our pitchers on the mound trying to prevent them from advancing. Ive seen annoying players like Juan Pierre distract our guys and Jose Reyes. I don't care what the stats tell you. In a close ball game late in a game, the picther is going to be throwing over two first 2-3 times between picthes with a fast guy like Rajaii on first. That should effect his concentration on the guy at the plate. Yeah if JT snow is standing over their on first , im sure it doesn't make much diffrence, but A guy like Rajaii that can take 2nd and 3rd, thats going to be in the back of your mind.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if it doesn't...

affect run scoring who gives a #@# ?

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

"Forcing hurried errors by infielders worried about his speed"

This happens what, maybe 3-4 times a season tops? You can go ahead an add .02 to his obp

"Stretching base hits into doubles & doubles into triples"

This actually is included in the equation, its called "whatever"

"Stolen bases"

I will give you that, though his career 79% minor league rate isn't all that impressive (and his 12 for 18 in the majors is terrible but small sample)

"Avoiding GIDPs with his speed"

This is in the equation its part of your ".270". Its just that he made only one out that normally may have been 2 by others. I don't think its all that terribly relevant.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Dude, adding .02 to someone's OBP would be a pretty substantial difference. ;)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 16, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+.008*

Thanks did my math backwards there.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

"This happens what, maybe 3-4 times a season tops? You can go ahead an add .02 to his obp"

I think it happens more than that over the course of full season. I'm not just referring to errant throws. Speed can turn the slightest bobble into an error when others normally would still be out.

"This actually is included in the equation, its called "whatever""

I realize the doubles/triples are part of SLG%, but we were talking about OBP. When most people talk about SLG%, they're talking about a guy's ability to drive in runs or advance runners. With a leadoff hitter, it's about getting into scoring position and creating runs. In Davis' case those stretches, are more like getting on and stealing base as opposed to "slugging".

"This is in the equation its part of your ".270". Its just that he made only one out that normally may have been 2 by others. I don't think its all that terribly relevant."

I thinking not making an out where others would have is pretty relevant and not reflected in his BA. If you don't think it is, think back to AJ's year with the Giants; ugly thoughts. The ability to stay out of a double play can often mean the difference in a run scoring or not.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

buddy...

you're wrong on this one. Studies have looked at the effect of fast players on actual run scoring vs expected run scoring. The difference just isn't substantial. I am not saying speed is not valuable. It clearly is! Just for some reason, the hurried throws and the like don't seem to effect the actual outcome.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: buddy...

True, but it DOES have an effect on the not inconsequential "entertainment quotient" (a complicated formula involving $$$ outlay and intensity of moments burned into your pleasure center).

by Roger on Aug 16, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: buddy...

Where are the studies?

by amoose on Aug 16, 2007 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: buddy...

I may very well be wrong, but I'm still skeptical.

I read the link you posted and it makes sense, but I'm not sure I agree with the method for what constitutes "speed". To my thinking, using SB % and attempts, triples and Runs per times on base would determine how effective and maybe agressive a baserunner someone is, but not how fast he is. What it doesn't measure is how much pure speed a guy has and how quickly he gets out of the box. I think the only way to measure that is with a stopwatch.

Davis is one of maybe a half-dozen guys in the MLB with "oh my god" speed. I'm not sure this study would accurately measure how that affects an infield's ability to get him out with "routine effort".

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the study I wanted

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ichiro.htm

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Here's the study I wanted

Excellent reading. I think it makes both of our points. Speed does add measurable value (my point) but it's not a whole lot (your point).

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

now...

there is a statement I can stand by.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more thought

Having seen them both in person, I think Davis is faster than Ichiro. (Though Ichiro is undoubtedly a "smarter" baserunner at this stage in their respective careers.)

Seeing him run the bases in person a couple of times is eye-opening. As I said before, it's as though someone is holding down the fast-forward button when you watch him live. The only player I've seen in person that I remember impressing me so much with his speed was Deion Sanders.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Don't forget causing the opposing pitcher to balk, twice.

Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: Welcome Back!

by sfgreg on Aug 16, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

When did anyone bring up Jose Reyes?

Steve Kline: He's pretty okay!

by groug on Aug 16, 2007 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The New York Mets did a couple of seasons ago

and he is doing quite well for the Mets

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeay

the cavalry has come in! Thank you Goofus.

***

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Or maybe you underestimate my definition of "solid".

Just for fun, call it top 1/3 of the league - that's about 5th best. I mean, what do you want me to say "yay league average oba for a lead-off hitter..."

In the minors he has 251 SB, 71 CS. Acceptable, but not ridiculously valuable - 77%. I have zero idea how to translate that the MLB... I would guess that's harder to steal in the bigs.

I would take a .350 OBP with a .400 SLG, 80% SB, and trancendental defense in CF. He could maybe crack .400 SLG if he learns to hit triples.

I stand by my statement if he can't do that - he's part of the problem.

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What you would take

vs. what is available = quite a gulf.

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: What you would take

then there is no way this team will be good next year.

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly

I think I'll agree with that, although I must be having a momentary lapse of usually sunny outlook

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Regarding learning to hit triples, there's an easier way to boost his value. Krukow was saying the other day that he still needs to learn to be an effective bunter. If he could learn to push and drag, he'd cause all kinds of hell for defenses. The infield would have to respect the threat to bunt and the slppy grounders would find more holes.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

This whole discussion started when you flatly dismissed Davis as a 4th outfielder. A league-average leadoff hitter is, pretty much by definition, a starter - that's who sets the average. Combine that with solid defense at a premium position and you have a valuable player. Not a franchise player, but the kind of solid starter you need to fill out the lineup.

Who do you consider an acceptable and realistic solution at leadoff? I don't see a whole lot of top-third-of-the-league options throwing themselves our way.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 16, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Great point from the gentleman from Santa Cruz. What my esteemed colleague also might have wanted to point out is that in addition to all the qualities listed above, he's cheap and under our control . Even if he's not a franchise player, he could very well allow us to devote more resources where they're needed more (i.e. power hitter).

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to with the 'filling out the lineup'. As wiser folks than I have pointed out, you can't build a team of All-Stars at every position. You get a couple guys like that and surround them with decent, league-average types; if those league-average guys are cheap, so much the better.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 16, 2007 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why don't you think Rajai could start

Do you think he's more likely to hit:
.350/.400 (my minimum lead off) or .301/.340 (his 07 projection)?

I will go on record right now and say he's more likely to turn back into the .301/.340 pumpkin that suddenly blossom into even an AVERAGE ml lead-off hitter.

The fact that:
a) I think he might make a good 4th OF
and
b) he may be the best (in practical terms) solution for the Giants leading off and playing CF

is not inconsistent. It merely reiterates the decrepitude of the farm system + FA market (position player division)

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

What makes you think the Giants have given up on Freddie? I don't expect him to become a full-time starter, but I thought he was sent down to get regular at bats until September 1st. I actually saw it as a positive for him.

by sharksrog on Aug 16, 2007 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

We sure do beat a lot of dead horses, here.

If Brad Hennesy had Steve Kline's attitude you'd get Rob Nen... without the triple digit heat.

by milesntrane on Aug 16, 2007 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Baggerly's similar story says Sabean has offered Roberts around, but it ain't happening unless the Giants swallow a chunk of the salary.

by Roger on Aug 16, 2007 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So?

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I have no problem with eating part of Roberts' salary, assuming we get a prospect back. We won't get a top prospect by any means, but someone with some upside at least...

by Skaldheim on Aug 16, 2007 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I hate his ass enough to eat all of it and just raise the price of a cha cha bowl a buck.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Hmmm... this cha-cha bowl takes kinda like...
DAVE ROBERTS!

IT'S ROBERTS! SOYLENT CHA-CHA IS ROBERTS!

by zenbitz on Aug 16, 2007 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Find out who can play and who cannot play

Dave Roberts is due 13M thru the 2009 season. I could see a team trading for Roberts if SF ate 6 or 7M. If SF determines Rajai Davis, Clay Timpner or another prospect can play ML CF it may be worth swallowing a chunk of salary.

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Play Davis

His speed, defense and arm aren't going away. As far as hitting at this level, he's demonstrated he can do it. Combined with what appears to be a decent eye, and the fact that he hit over .300 in the minors, tells me he is real enough.

***

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Play Davis

Look, I'm a Davis fan, but to say that he has demonstrated he can hit at this level is to drastically underestimate the importance of sample sizes. The man has had 124 plate appearances in the major leagues. If you don't believe that a bad player can have a hot streak that long (or longer), check out the careers of Clint Barmes or Shane Spencer or Cesar Izturis or a hundred others.

by Evan on Aug 16, 2007 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're reading too much into what I said

He has demonstrated that he can hit. Not for a full season of course, but he has not yet been stumped by major league pitching.

I didn't use his stats to predict he'll be a great hitter. I fully expect him to slow down. But it's not like he has a track record of failure- his average has always been decent to good, his OBP has also been a plus, and that HASN'T YET gone away at the major league level. Now, why is it that I shouldn't be excited again? His legs are money. His arm is money. His defense is money. His bat is a question mark, but why shouldn't it be tolerable, in light of his strengths, especially when he has shown a good eye, which, correct me if I'm wrong, a lot of young flashes in the pan DON'T show.

***

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

Hear hear! (Or is it "Here here!"?)

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

Thank you. Its not that this team has even come close to anybody other than Bonds or Wynn put up good numbers in 3 seasons. You give him the job until he plays his way out. Over a period of time. Roberts needs to go. Actually he needs to never have been here for more than this year. Two more years is disgusting.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

Feel free to be excited; hell, I'm excited too. But we need to recognize that he's a longshot. Here are the BP conversions of his minor-league seasons to major-league level:

.284/.343/.387
.266/.327/.348
.279/.329/.351

Not good. Basically, what you're banking on his that he's made a great leap forward this year, being more selective at the plate and making more (and better) contact when he goes after a pitch. That's certainly possible; he's the right age for it. But it's just as likely, maybe more so, that he's just on a hot streak and will soon revert to his usual level.

by Evan on Aug 16, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

Evan,
How much weight do you put in him becoming a full-time baseball player at a later age? Could that help explain why he might "getting it" at the more advanced age of 26 when he didn't show it before?

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

Beats me. That's the line on Freddie Lewis too, or at least it used to be, till he sort of retreated from his big year at San Jose.

I suspect there's some truth to that theory, but I also think that it's just harder to learn things as you get older. If you move a ten-year-old and a thirty-year-old from Pacifica to Paris, the kid will probably be speaking flawless French with a perfect accent in a couple of years, while the adult will still be making grammatical mistakes and having trouble pronouncing those damn r's when he's an old man.

In other words, if a great athlete doesn't take baseball seriously till he's 21, it's not just that his schedule gets pushed back by a couple of years; rather, he loses a chance at development that he'll never get back.

by Evan on Aug 16, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: You're reading too much into what I said

That one report said he focused on basetball in JC. That's why I asked.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I'd rather we eat less of Roberts' contract and get a much crappier player in return. It's not like we are going to get anything good for Roberts if we ate even his whole salary. So why not just save some cash, and get basically nothing in return? We have enough AAA and AAAA outfielders that can fill the hole.

I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Aug 16, 2007 12:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

Because he's going to be near impossible to move without eating cash. That's what Sabean has admitted to finding out during trade talks. It's not a matter of the return. People don't want him at that price.

by Roger on Aug 16, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much is enough

What is the amount you would be willing for SF to swallow? What is the amount Sabean is looking at?

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say 3.5-4 mil sounds about right.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I take that back

After thinking about it for a little more that sounds like too much. More like 2.5-3.5 sounds better.

by awesomer on Aug 16, 2007 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'd say 3.5-4 mil sounds about right.

I agree if it takes 4M , do it, just to get Roberts off this roster. Rajaii needs to play everyday next year, and lewis need a lot of time too.

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How much is enough

Sorry, I don't swallow...not even a little.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How much is enough

LOl

Forget trading the old guys, Sabean must go first!!!!

by ramirez415 on Aug 16, 2007 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but all that over stuff is ok?

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: but all that over stuff is ok?

Don't ask...you couldn't afford me.

Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 16, 2007 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're not my shade of red

swallowing is like OPS it's a bit overrated as long as you do all the little thingys.

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

I think it's a little early to drink Rajai flavored kool-aid, but that being said, what we exactly need to do is play him and find out.

All speed no power guys tend to have only a couple of good seasons in them, depending on whther their BA can fluctuate them into an acceptable OBP.

Still, he's young he's cheap, and if he can hit enough to be a good starter for a few years, I'll be happy.

zhongguo mei you bangqiu

by oldjacket on Aug 16, 2007 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

For no other reason than he represents POSITIVE CHANGE for the first time since Wynn at a position. That has been around 320 games ago. Thats a lot of damn root canals to sit through. Leave us in peace to watch somebody who is actually disruptive on the bases, hauls ass in the outfield, and acts like he actually enjoys the game.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love it when I agree with E

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by hairball on Aug 16, 2007 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I love it when I agree with E

Thats cuz we're both north of the GG Bridge. Which of course as everybody knows is where God lives. (Zito leases Him out the guest cottage_

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Davis to get more playing time

If Davis becomes Juan Pierre...

To be honest, I wouldn't mind having Pierre on this roster[, for the league minimum].

But when I say "Pierre on this roster" I don't mean THIS roster. THIS roster has enough mediocre to potentially decent outfielders on it, and Bonds.

Roberts needs to go, and we can eat some of the salary, but we need to drop Winn, too. If we're banking on either Davis, Schierholtz, Lewis, or Ort starting for a competitive ballclub's outfield in the next three years, we can't also have Winn as a waaaayyyyy below average right fielder. He's taking at-bats from guys who are younger, cheaper, faster, and may be able to get on base at the same rate in the future. We're not in a position to let ONE prospect show us what he can do.

Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Aug 16, 2007 1:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

At press conference to announce the trade

Sabean was asked if Rajai Davis would be the starting CF next season and Sabean just laughed and said "next question".

by wilriv21 on Aug 16, 2007 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: At press conference to announce the trade

And if 90 percent of the folks here were asked if Sabaen were going to be the GM next season, 110 percent would just laugh and shoot Sabaen in the head.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 16, 2007 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs