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State of the Giants (Outfield)

Continuing from my other diary, here's the OF:

Left Field

Barry Bonds
07: $15.8m plus bonuses (probably will end up with $19.3m)
2007 Line:  .280/.497/.590
Since ASB:  .234/.451/.594

Remember when it was unclear whether Bonds had enough in the tank to come back, play a full season, and break the record?  Well he did, he does, and when he is in the lineup, he is the best hitter in baseball.  Still.  At age 43.  Now Barry isn't the most valuable hitter in baseball, as he needs a fair bit of time off, but by rate, he is still the best, whether by OPS, OPS+, Runs Created - pick one.  Is he worth $19.3m?  Well, probably by the end of the season, but his pecuniary value to the Giants is so much greater.  Say what you will about the circus, about needing to get younger, etc, but Bonds should be back next year.  There is no impact bat this side of Alex Rodriguez with which the team could replace Bonds.  He is a force, and there aren't enough FA bats to make up for it.  Even if the team were to get equivalent production out of multiple players, it would cost more than Bonds!  The fan in me wants Barry back, but the analyst in me confirms that it is a good idea.

Center Field

Dave Roberts
07:$5M, 08:$6.5M, 09:$6.5M
2007 Line:  .266/.333/.364
Since ASB:  .344/.406/.417

Speed ages well, but was Dave Roberts so integral to the success of this ballclub that he was worth signing through 2009?  Granted, Roberts has been injured this year, hurting his performance, but then again, old players get injured.  Also, Roberts's entire game is speed, so one bad hammy and he's done.  Dave's strong second half is inching him back to his career line, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him above his career numbers before the season is done.  Unfortunately, he is exactly the kind of player this team doesn't need.  His defense is about average, he is blocking young players, and at the very least he keeps Winn's better defense and CF bat stuck in RF.  Dave's contract is fine IF he is a starter, but he is overpaid as a backup.  He has to go.  Or Winn has to go.  Or both have to go.

Rajai Davis
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .271/.357/.354
Since ASB:  .429/.524/.600
With SFG.:  .440/.548/.640 (!!11!!1!11!! ok in 31 PA)

Rajai's best attribute is his speed.  Actually, for the Giants, his best attribute is that he hits righthanded and can play CF.  In his age 26 season, Davis will turn 27 in October, and his career minor-league line is .305/.375/.407.  He can take a walk, he can hit for a little average, and he can FLY.  What he doesn't have is power.  The reviews on his defense are mixed, but he certainly has the speed to make up for bad routes.  What we have to hope for here is that the Pirates are stupid and didn't know what they had, but don't be fooled by the crazy post ASB small sample numbers.  He isn't that good.  He will likely stick around as a backup OFer because Lewis and Roberts can't hit lefties.

Right Field

Randy Winn
07:$4M, 08:$8M, 09:$8.25M
2007 Line:  .292/.346/.414
Since ASB:  .325/.384/.447

Randy Winn is awesome.  OK, Randy Winn is average.  OK, so maybe I just like Randy Winn.  Winn's RF defense is above-average, but no so much that you like his bat in RF.  Winn should be playing CF, where his bat would be fine.  Winn is about a league-average hitter - maybe better because his OPS is OBP-heavy - but you don't want him in RF.  Basically, here's the problem:  we talk about a hypothetical team of 9 Randy Winns putting up 5.2 runs per game (yes, his RC/27 is 5.2).  The issue is not that a team of 9 Randy Winns wouldn't average 5.2 runs per game.  The issue is that the real team has a pitcher batting ninth, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Dave Roberts, and Bengie Molina in it.  Because you aren't going to get Randy Winn production from all of the other positions, you need someone much better than Randy Winn to make up for the crappy parts of the lineup.  Winn is earning his salary this year, but again, he blocks young guys, and his contract is a waste on the bench.  We can't trade Randy Winn, you say?  He has a no-trade clause?  See how fast he waives it when you tell him he will be sitting on the bench.  Winn would be perfect for the Reds.  I like Randy Winn, but Dave Roberts and Randy Winn should not be starters on the same team.  At minimum, one needs to go.  Preferably, both need to go.

Fred Lewis
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .275/.356/.401
Since ASB:  .257/.350/.286 (40 PA)

Free Fred Lewis!  Fred Lewis may not be better than Randy Winn, but he is cheaper.  Plus, according to UZR, his defense is 4-5 runs better.  Yeah, he looks bad, but he is very fast, and speed makes up for bad routes.  Unfortunately, Lewis can't hit LHP - not in the minors, not in the majors.  Lewis and Rajai Davis could make a fine platoon.  Lewis and Winn could make a fine platoon as well - Winn, despite being a lefty-masher, is pretty crappy against RHP.  I should have mentioned that in Winn's section.  Between his minor league numbers and his major league numbers, Lewis has proven that he can play.  In the absence of a star RF acquisition, Lewis should be playing, and even then, Lewis should probably be in CF with Davis.

Nate Schierholtz
Minimum Salary
2007 Line:  .325/.349/.400
2007 AAA.:  .322/.358/.531

Schierholtz doesn't walk much, so his OBP is low for his AVG.  He also doesn't hit for a ton of power, and what is there is mostly in the form of doubles.  His advantages:  unlike our other OF prospects, he is actually a prospect - age 23, compared to Lewis and Davis at 27 and 26.  Also, unlike most of our other OFers, he doesn't show much platoon split, so he shouldn't be a liability against LHP.  That said, I am not high on Schierholtz.  He can't really play CF and he doesn't have the power for RF.  Sure, a .531 SLG is nothing to sneeze at, but that is going to be a sub-.500 SLG in the majors.  I say leave him in AAA and try to develop some power, because without it, he isn't going to be a long-term answer in RF.

Other Minor League help:

Dan Ortmeier:  sure, he is in the majors, but why?  He is a bit of a lefty-masher, solid in the field, and has a little speed.  Decent backup, I suppose.

Clay Timpner, John Bowker, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Eugenio Velez:  read Steve's Minor Lines.  Actually, Timpner kills RHP but can't hit LHP at all.  We have a lot of bad platoon splits in the system.

Poll
Which of the young Giants OFers would you most like to see start in 2008?
Nate Schierholtz
48 votes
Clay Timpner
2 votes
Dan Ortmeier
3 votes
Fred Lewis
34 votes
Rajai Davis
55 votes

142 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Nice analysis, yet again.

One question though, when comparing the defense of Lewis and Winn, are you talking about their performances in CF or RF?

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Aug 12, 2007 8:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I will clarify by posting the numbers.  These are the latest released UZR numbers.  I believe they are through July 9.  Remember that small sample sizes apply to fielding numbers too, especially as missing a ball when one has fewer chances is going to skew the results a lot more than with a full season of chances.  This includes errors as well, but is just for range and not throwing arm.  You can get the UZR numbers when MGL posts them, and a lot more analysis and discussion, at The Book Blog.  There is currently a discussion where MGL rips Bochy's managing.  Good times.

The plus or minus runs is against average.

Winn:
RF:  +4 runs saved per 150 games
CF:  -3 runs saved per 150 games

Lewis:
RF:  +8 runs saved per 150 games
CF:  +76 runs saved per 150 games (VERY SMALL SAMPLE)

Roberts:
CF:  -25 runs saved per 150 games

Holy sweet crap I hadn't noticed the updated UZR for Roberts before.  He wasn't as bad on the last UZR update.  Yeah, that might be small sample size fluke, but it matches what my eyes see, which is that Winn is a LOT better in CF.  That -25 per 150 is basically 2.5 wins that Roberts costs the team with his glove over 150 games.  That is just awful for a guy who isn't a great hitter.  FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has Roberts as below average, but barely.

Also:  every 10 runs either way is worth a win.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Actually, if I am going to post those, I might as well post the others too.

Each number is runs saved per 150 games, and at the player's primary position unless noted otherwise.  I will post the IF numbers at the other diary.

Bonds:  -14

Davis:  +27 (CF, with PIT) - fairly small sample size.

I have no numbers for Schierholtz, and small samples for Ortmeier (+40 in LF, -26 in RF - odd, and too small a sample to draw conclusions).

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
You know, back when the rumors were circulating about signing Roberts, you and I traded a few posts in which I said (apart from the lunacy of having Roberts and Winn in the same lineup) that from what I'd seen of Roberts in CF, he was a bad defensive CF. Without looking too much like I'm patting myself on the back, this brings up the question for me -- what kind of due diligence does this team put in on players they're thinking about acquiring? Because if I can see something, surely professional scouts can see it a lot clearer.

by Roger on Aug 12, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
True, and if I remember correctly, I might have said that his LF UZR numbers were so good that his CF play couldn't be that bad.  Now granted, these numbers are from July 9, so they could be a bit fluky.  BPro has weird defensive numbers, but they have Roberts as only 1 run below average.

And as for the defense and scouts?  I guarantee that the scouts are just like us, albeit better trained, in that they watch the guy play defense and decide how good he is.  The problem is that a guy who takes a smooth route to the ball, doesn't make errors, and "looks" good out there is going to be praised as a good defender.  A guy like Davis or Lewis, no matter how many balls he gets to, is going to be denigrated for looking clumsy.  Bonds isn't really that bad, but you would think that he is twice as bad as Manny Ramirez to hear commentators talk about his defense.  Do scouts make the same mistakes?  I bet they do.

If I were to criticize UZR, or Chris Dial's ZR work, or any of the others, I would probably say that they don't note exactly where the fielder was positioned.  If the fielder makes what would be a tough play, even out of his zone, he gets credit, even though the play might actually have been fairly easy.  If the fielder misses a ball because he is positioned incorrectly, what seems as if it would be an easy play in the zone would count as a miss.  Fortunately, the greater the sample size, the more likely those events even out.  MGL is quick to say that we shouldn't draw strong conclusions from smaller samples of UZR data, and I would bet that conclusions he draws about a guy's fielding would be taken from a two- to three-year sample size.

I posted the UZR numbers anyway, because while we may not draw very strong conclusions from the data, it is really all I have.  To get a little more perspective, here are Chris Dial's final 2006 numbers at BTF.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Oh, and about the defensive numbers:  there seems to be a problem with the numbers that results from high OF walls, in that the balls are considered to be "in play" for the fielder, even though a ball that bounces high off the RF wall at AT&T, the Green Monster at Fenway, the LF wall at Florida, etc, is not at all catchable.

I don't know if MGL has made an adjustment to the UZR numbers for that, so it is possible that Winn's and Lewis's numbers are actually better than what is listed.  I am wary of trusting what I see, but Winn appears to me to be very good in RF, and it wouldn't surprise me to see that his numbers have taken a hit because of the wall.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Thanks for the primer NSCEGF. I'm not sure using Bonds (with all the built in bias) is the best illustration of your point above, but I do believe you're largely correct, particularly regarding the effect that a "smooth" fielder has on the eyes when judging.  That said I do like to make my judgements using my eyes -- I wouldn't say I trust them more than I do the numbers, but I get more pleasure out of trying to watch for subtle things, and pleasure is ultimately the reason we all pay attention to this silly game anyway, right?

by Roger on Aug 12, 2007 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I think that the eyes are important, especially when our eyes see something that makes us think there is something very wrong with the numbers.

The numbers aren't perfect, especially as defensive metrics are in their infancy compared to offensive numbers.  But when the numbers all agree on something, even when they come from different systems, then we have to question whether our eyes are correct.  Like with Derek Jeter at SS.  He doesn't look bad, he hustles, and he has a good arm, but the ball doesn't go "past a diving Jeter!" seven million times because it was particularly well-hit.  Yet, many eyes have decided that he deserves a Gold Glove.  

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Yes, well that would belong to the phenomena of "people looking without seeing" closely related to "people talking without speaking" and "people hearing without listening."

by Roger on Aug 12, 2007 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
..and people writing songs that voices never shared. No one dared disturb the sound of silence.
Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle on Aug 14, 2007 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Quick question, seeing as how I'm a young kid learning all these new metrics . . .

Which is the more accurate system to follow, Dewan's Fielding Bible or the UZR?  Or is it just a matter of preference?

Watching Jeter is fun, because he is absolutely incapable of throwing the ball while standing still.  There's an excerpt from the book on the Fielding Bible site on Jeter vs. Everett, if you're in the mood to read an interesting article.

Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by Anticon23 on Aug 12, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
It is hard to say, because we don't have a control metric which is "correct," so to speak, against which to measure the others.  You can read about the methodologies, if they are available.  BPro's isn't, MGL doesn't release the whole system but talks a lot about what goes into it, Chris Dial is completely open... check on the others.

I like to look at multiple systems.  If they agree, then I have a decent sense that they are correct, at least within an acceptable degree of error.  If there is an outlier, I like to try to figure out why, and why that system or type of system would be in error.

Most of the time, for my purposes, a general agreement by the different systems is close enough.  I am not as familiar with Dewan's system, but it, UZR, and Dial's work all are based on play-by-play data, which I believe will be more accurate, at least over time.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks!

Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by Anticon23 on Aug 12, 2007 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It isn't so much that which is more accurate
But rather understanding how each system works.

You can find an explanation and discussion of the UZR system here. And also of course, on MGL's blog.

IMHO James' article in the Fielding Bible is an outstanding example of how to look at defense.

by rfloh on Aug 13, 2007 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Outfield walls
From posts that I've seen by MGL on BBTF, he does adjust for the Green Monster. However, Red Sox fans have also done studies and posted on BBTF that the adjustment isn't enough.

by rfloh on Aug 13, 2007 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roberts is an excellent LF
Having watched Dave Roberts play for both Dodgers and Padres it was obvious to these untrained eyes that Roberts was a LF. But before we burn Sabean at the cross even Sabean knew and stated this. Would not be surprised if Roberts played LF in 2008 and SF went out and got a solid CF (Hunter, Rowand, Jones thru FA or trade for a CF).

by wilriv21 on Aug 12, 2007 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Roberts is an excellent LF
Fixing the problem of only having two CF in the lineup by adding a third?

by Roger on Aug 12, 2007 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Roberts is an excellent LF
Wil is convinced that speed and defense is the answer.

But:

(A)

LF Roberts
CF Jones or Rowand or Hunter
RF Winn or Schierholtz or Lewis

isn't nearly as good as

(B)

LF Bonds
CF Winn/Lewis/Roberts/Davis
RF Schierholtz/Lewis/Winn/Davis

Of course, what would be better is to have Bonds and a FA slugger and Lewis/Winn/Davis, but who knows if that will happen.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: by not as good - are you talking offensively?
Both offensively and defensively.  Option (A) would be, at the ABSOLUTE MOST, about 3, maybe 3.5 wins better, but that would be more than offset by the loss in offense.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: by not as good - are you talking offensively?
That should read:

Both offensively and defensively.  Option (A) would be, at the ABSOLUTE MOST, about 3, maybe 3.5 wins better on defense, but that would be more than offset by the loss in offense.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Good analysis!  I'm more optimistic about Nate's power than you.  Remember almost all rooks struggle at some point.  Better to get that out of the way now than wait until he's 26 or 27 yo.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 12, 2007 9:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
True enough.  What I don't know is this:  is there any evidence to suggest that a guy is more likely to develop power in the minors than in the majors?

It seems more likely that the minors is the place to tinker with a swing, but I actually don't know if it makes much difference.  Plus, you have a point in that any of these guys, Nate included, is going to have to make an adjustment to MLB, so why not get it over with sooner.  

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Very interesting question. Obviously, I don't have the answer, but there are definitely examples of guys who didn't show much power until a few years into their MLB career.

One is Shawn Green:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Shawn-Green.shtml

He never hit more than 13 HR in his 3 minor league seasons, and never hit more than 16 in his first 3 MLB seasons (in a hitter's park), before busting out with 35 in his 4th season in the majors. He followed that with 42, 24, 49, and 42 over the next 4 seasons.

Another is Don Mattingly:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Don-Mattingly.shtml

He only had 37 HR's in his entire minor league career (in 1,842 AB's), then put up just 4 in his rookie year, before hitting 23 in his 2nd season in MLB, and followed that with 35, 31 and 30 over the next 3 seasons (albeit in a great HR park for LHB's).

Coincidentally (or maybe not), both players had startling power outages later in their career, but they do provide examples of how good-hitting minor leaguers can develop power once they reach the majors. If a LHB can do that in the Giants home park, however, is another question. Especially when considering that no LHB besides Bonds has ever had a 20 HR season for the Giants in their current park (though a couple of switch-hitters have).

by English Professor on Aug 12, 2007 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I agree with losingcalifornia.  I think Green's power was due to steroids.  Perhaps the same could be said for Brian Giles- 16 HR in 1998, followed by 39, 35, 37, 38 to drop back down to 16 in 2003, seems a little too suspicious.  Perhaps Luis Gonzalez, as well.

From all the reports I've read, Schierholtz has the ability to hit some mammoth shots, and it wouldn't surprise me if all his doubles soon translated into HR.  Even if they didn't completely turn into HR, with triple's alley at our park Schierholtz would be amassing a bunch of XBH.

Brian Anderson: converting saves and dominating as best he can.

by Anticon23 on Aug 12, 2007 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I wouldn't rush to judgment on Shawn Green.  He apparently had shoulder injuries that sapped his power.  The same thing happened to Will Clark, and while he could continue to hit at a high level, he never regained the power he had shown as a young player.

Brian Giles?  Hard to say.  He and Marcus have fallen off the power cliff, so it does look a bit suspicious, but Brian has gotten older and moved to Petco, where HR go to die.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
have you seen brian giles??? he is wider than he is tall!!! i have never seen someone so beefy in my life!!! besides brady anderson and brett boone, i have never been so conivinced of someones inflated and artificial numbers.

by projectmayhem713 on Aug 13, 2007 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

speaking of inflated numbers...
2B Davey Johnson. Even though Fulton County Stadium in Atlanta was the "Launching Pad," his HR total that one year was shockingly high. Hey, didn't he have a teammate that hit a lot of HRs in his career, too? What was that guy's name....?

;)

Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle on Aug 14, 2007 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Great post. It's really cool to see that everything I've been thinking just by watching this team is supported by the numbers. That doesn't usually happen for me.
Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Aug 12, 2007 11:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
.....I'm still a fan of Ort.
The rally pumpkin guy, helping the city alleviate the pathetic-ness of the Giants.

by jtoj on Aug 12, 2007 11:29 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Speed
I think Ortmier has more speed then his given credit for in this analysis as well.
Father of Adopted son Clay Timpner

by Andy In Fresno on Aug 12, 2007 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Great analysis. As usual.

My take is to get rid of Roberts and Winn, and platoon Lewis and Davis and Ortmier and Shierholtz. With Bonds, that gives you your 5 outfielders. Even if we have to eat the cash, and DFA those other two. I can't stand the sight of them.

We still don't have anybody that can remotely come close to replacing Bonds. Not. Close. Not even far. And Alex Rodriguez is coming here as much as I'm going to be the opening day pitcher for the Boston Red Sox.

I'd also buy out Bochy's contract, and rehire Baker to kick everybody in the ass and put some fire back in this bunch of pathetic lethargic losers. Thats exactly what Craig did in 86 and Bake did in 93. Enough of the Jimmy Davenports, Felipe Alous and Bruce Bochys. This is a roster full of jaking, over the hillers who are about as inspired as Rosie O'Donell at a Slim-Fast convention.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 12, 2007 11:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I still don't like this outfield, but I like it a HELL of a lot more than what we're throwing out right now.

And as long as we're going to suck next year anyway (see: infield), I'd love to get all four guys starting regularly so we can finally lay to rest who, if any, is the actual prospect.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Aug 12, 2007 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Hah!  Bochy really is a crap manager, isn't he.  I'll still take him over Alou or Baker, though.

I wouldn't mind having an OF of Bonds/Lewis/Davis/Schierholtz/one of Roberts or Winn, but if that is the case, is there any chance that Winn or Roberts is a backup?  Probably not, so both would have to go.

Sabean would do well to dangle some young pitching in trade this offseason with the condition that the other team take Winn or Roberts.  I would bet that the Reds or Phillies would take that offer.

I wouldn't mind seeing this lineup next year:

CF Lewis/Davis
RF Schierholtz/Winn
1B Burrell (trade w/Phillies, FA after next year)
LF Bonds
3B Lowell (FA, two years max, please)
.C Molina
2B Frandsen
SS Vizquel (or some cheap acquisition)
P

It isn't great, but if the young pitching takes a step forward, Zito doesn't suck, and the bullpen gets straightened out, then the team might have a chance with a little luck.  If the stars align and the team is actually in it, then 2B or SS could be upgraded by the deadline.

If not, at least the team doesn't completely suck, and Burrell or Lowell might be worth something in trade.  Burrell's contract would no longer be an issue, and Lowell could help a contender if his contract isn't for 4 years and backloaded.  We have nothing in the system ready for 1B or 3B, so no kids are being blocked and rebuilding isn't stifled by long contracts.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
as i recall, there will be 3 great college 1b next year at the top of the draft.  I quite like the kid from arkansas state.  How fast can you put them through the system do you think?  Could any of them be put on the ryan zimmerman track?
this is a split signature of solidarity for Palestine and the current Giants "team".

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 12, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I know virtually nothing about amateur players until I study them before the draft.  Even then, I don't know much.

Someone else is going to have to take this one on.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

College Sluggers
2008 indeed looks like a good year to draft a college slugger high in the draft.  
  1.  Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt.  The current concensus #1 overall pick.  Hey, we still have a chance, right?  So he's not a first baseman.  We can use a slugging 3B too!
  2.  Justin Smoak, South Carolina?  Lower BA than some others, but appears to have unlimited power potential.
  3.  Kid from Miami, damn, now I'm blanking on his name!  Great power and great plate discipline.  Not a great body so stuck at 1B.  So, who care?  We need a slugging first baseman, dammit.
  4.  Dave Wallace, AZ St.  
I'm sure there are more.  Those are just the ones from BA's 2007 College All-American team.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 12, 2007 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: College Sluggers
thank you, i was talking about smoak.  not ak state, sc state.  But yeah i like either of those first three (i heard wallace will be a bit of a project).  I'd love any of them.  We just need some effin hitters
this is a split signature of solidarity for Palestine and the current Giants "team".

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 12, 2007 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yonder Alonzo
The first baseman from Miami.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 13, 2007 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
This is the second time you talked about Dusty Baker kicking everyone in the ass. Which Dusty Baker are you referring to?? The Dusty Baker I remember kissed the ass of every player on his team, especially the leftfielder. And his idea of leadership was to put on sweatbands and chomp on a toothpick. Lou Piniella is a kick ass manager, not Dusty Baker.
Randy Messenger says,"doubleheader on Monday?? Give me the damn ball. I'll save the first game and pitch a shutout in game two!!"

by rxmeister on Aug 12, 2007 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Bake chews ass behind closed doors. Out of sight. Out of earshot. Thats what good coaches (like Walsh) and managers (Torre) do.  Guys like Piniella and Earl Weaver are old school. Media likes them because they're media friendly guys. Baker, like Bonds, has little use for baseball media guys. They don't respect his job, he doesn't respect them back. So they write shit about him. Whatever.
Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 12, 2007 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
baker was a good handler, but a shit manager.  He mishandled bullpens regularly and does not think walks are valuable.  "base-clogger" was his coined term.  and now he's one of the "baseball media guys," in the same boat.
this is a split signature of solidarity for Palestine and the current Giants "team".

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 12, 2007 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
More good analysis but I disagree on one big point -- no longer is Bonds the best hitter in baseball, if he ever was (best slugger is another category). The more people pitch to him, the clearer that gets.  I want him back on one condition only -- he gives a deep, deep hometown discount and everyone goes into it recognizing he is going to get a lot more rest than this year. The truth is he ought to be a DH (I choke on that because no one should be a DH -- it's a travesty that one-dimensional players can have such impact). The market should be set by what other teams will pay him to DH, which won't be anything near what he expects from the Giants. If no one wants him, we say, "Fine, here it is Barry. $1 million or retire -- your choice." He's not our future and we need to send the rest of the team a very clear message, even at the price of missing out on some productivity next year.
One other thing -- I doubt the Feds will ever get him on perjury although they may try, but it's a lock they can get him on income tax invasion (they can get any of these athletes on that if they really want to because of all the perks, shows and so forth). It shouldn't reduce his leverage because it will be chickenshit compared to what a lot of others in our society do to cheat the IRS but the reality is that it will.

by NearestNorwich on Aug 12, 2007 12:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
What is the message we want to send to the rest of the team, exactly?

Without quibbling about Barry's exact place in the pantheon of hitters (or sluggers, if you will), he is certainly worth $15m or more to the team from his production and what he means to the team's earnings.  If you have a better place to spend the money, then by all means do so, but where?

It isn't as if Barry would be blocking much, unless you have plans for a Schierholtz/Lewis/Davis OF, and it would be a one-year contract, so the next great Giants team wouldn't be burdened by his salary.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
It would be another year of not finding out what our plans can or should be for these young players you mention because everything would be skewed to getting Barry his at bats when he wants them and where he wants them. As I said it would be more productivity and probably more revenue for that year, but it delays really sorting out the team for the future and it tells all the younger players we're going to live in Barryland instead of reality for another year. One thing I don't have any sense of that's probably relevant is whether Barry is a plus or a minus when it comes to attracting free agents. What's your take on that?

by NearestNorwich on Aug 12, 2007 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I think it depends on what sort of free agent.  For someone who simply is good, it probably doesn't matter so much.  There are too many other factors to consider, and that type of FA isn't going to be "the man" on most teams.

For the star/superstar FA, it probably matters quite a bit.  Those kinds of FAs often like to show up with a new team as the big star, lauded as the savior, the man, if you will, and that is never going to happen on a team with Barry Bonds.  Sure, Alfonso Soriano can go to the Cubs and coexist with Derrek Lee, for example, but with Bonds - home run king, HOFer to be, best player in SF (at least) since 1993 - you are definitely going to be second fiddle.

Maybe that won't be as big a deal now, because Bonds is probably not going to be here longer than through next season, if at all, so a player might not worry about a year of Bonds in a 5-7 year contract.  

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Great posts, though a little on the depressing side. I really wish Freddie was still up and playing everyday.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 12, 2007 12:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Say goodbye to John Boy
Sanchez will offered up in trades this winter.

by wilriv21 on Aug 12, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Say goodbye to John Boy
I wouldn't be surprised.  Are you going to be sad about losing your #1 Boricua?  Maybe the Giants will get Alex Rios!

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 12, 2007 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bittersweet
Tired of him being in the bullpen and so is he. He is a starter and some team will have him starting for them next season.

by wilriv21 on Aug 12, 2007 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Bittersweet
We may see Sanchez get a few September starts like he did last year.
The club hopes Sanchez, who was 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings of relief, will log a number of minor-league innings in a relaxed environment, and Bochy said Sanchez could get some starts, much like he did at the end of last season.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/12/SP6QRH1PH.DTL

Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: Still walking a batter per inning in AAA.

by sfgreg on Aug 12, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Just out of curiosity, but am I the only person who is more optimistic about Misch as a long time starter (I know.... another soft throwing lefty painter???) than Sanchez?

I suppose Misch has the potential to make Lowry acceptably expendable, and we'd still be able to try the Sanchez experiment.

But Sanchez kind of scares me. I see no evidence that he can handle a starter's workload and a couple of compelling exhibits to show that he can't, and he still doesn't have the kind of secondary stuff I want in a starter...

But God I love that guy's arm, anyway...

I am somewhat torn, but the main idea is Sanchez scares me and Misch doesn't, and I don't see a big enough difference in upside to make me very confident about the risk.

Anybody willing to convince me? Or should I wait for the upcoming pitcher's diary?

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Aug 12, 2007 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I tend to agree.  But I think Sanchez has a higher ceiling.  Jon needs to add a new pitch to his arsenal and needs to get better control of his stuff.  
I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Aug 12, 2007 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Randy Winn won't have a no trade clause next season. He has to submit a list of ten teams he's willing to be traded to. I don't know why so many fans realized you can't have two thirds of your outfield be powerless, and Sabean didn't. Maybe he thought Winn would bounce back and hit homeruns like he did in 2005. He didn't. I think he's alot easier to trade than Roberts is, as he is durable and is having a good year. I think what's left is a platoon of Roberts and Davis in center, with Nate Schierholtz or Freddie Lewis at one spot, and a power hitting hitting acquistion at the other. It's time to say bye bye to Barry Bonds. As great as he is, he's going to have legal problems next year, he's going to be 44, and I'm tired of hearing how the other players on the team are affected by the Barry circus. Time to remove him and make those players put up or shut up. The 2008 Giants are not going to be contenders anyway.
Randy Messenger says,"doubleheader on Monday?? Give me the damn ball. I'll save the first game and pitch a shutout in game two!!"

by rxmeister on Aug 12, 2007 2:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Winn is having a good year?

He's ranked 21st in the NL in OPS at .760, 27th in  SLG at .413 and a miserly 7 Jacks, and he's tied for 17th in Steals with 10 with Rajai Davis who has 73 ABS compared to Winn's 435.  

I think I need to not take you seriously on some things, and just chalk it off to you being a New Yorker.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 12, 2007 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
What I'd like to see is the Giants re-sign Bonds, trade Winn, and sign Andruw Jones when he files for free agency. Then play an outfield of Bonds in left, Jones in Center, and either Davis or Lewis in Right. I'd keep Roberts as a very expensive fourth outfielder to replace Bonds when he needs his rest, speed off the bench, and as insurance if Davis or Lewis don't work out. Davis looks to have the arm and range to play right, and he could work out as a lead off hitter. If not Lewis should be given the shot. Jones would give them not only a legitimate defensive centerfielder, but a real power threat behind Bonds. I know it's a gamble to sign Jones with his injuries and his down year, but it's a gamble that has a huge upside and worth the risk. I also like Roberts as a fourth outfielder and as a mentor to Davis and Lewis in their speed game. As I said he's expensive in that role, but I don't think anyone is going to take him off the Giants' hands with two years to go on his contract. Anyway, that would be my game plan.

by Sayhey on Aug 12, 2007 4:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: would you substitute Hunter for Jones?
Yes, but Hunter doesn't accomplish the need for a power bat like Jones does. Hunter would be great as a third place hitter, but he doesn't provide, especially in AT&T, the kind of home run power the Giants need in a fifth place hitter. Still, he would be great if the Giants could land him.

by Sayhey on Aug 12, 2007 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
I liked Jones 10 years ago. He has enough money to buy the entire country of Curacao.  No thanks. He stinks now. He has having a worse year than Randy Winn OPS-wise.
Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 12, 2007 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Yes, he is having a terrible year, although he is still hitting home runs. I'm betting it's not a sign of a degeneration of his talent. Andruw is still a relatively young player who should have many years left in him, if his injuries aren't more serious than we have been led to believe. A risk, but a good one in my estimation.

by Sayhey on Aug 12, 2007 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
jones in right, davis in center.. jones is one of the worst defensive CF in the game now, hes fat

by Azmanz on Aug 12, 2007 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
While Jones may not be that bad, I would still rather have Mike Cameron.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 13, 2007 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
"Randy Winn is awesome"

Reminds me of Grant's post a week ago or so about Winn being the second best hitter on the team.  Heh.  He's awesome compared to the rest of the lineup, that's for sure.

by paboperfecto on Aug 13, 2007 11:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
"Speed Ages Well".... "Speed Ages Well"....

That's about as accurate as "Porn stars age well"

And great flippin' jesus do we really have 4 identical slap hitting OFs who can't quite play center of different ages?  Winn/Roberts/Lewis/Davis/Shurholtz?

by zenbitz on Aug 13, 2007 2:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Not a "granny" kind of guy, I guess.

Well, to each his own.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Aug 13, 2007 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: State of the Giants (Outfield)
Sanchez is such a nice ballplayer.
Bold Prediction: Klesko will finish the 2007 season with at least 20 HRs. (OPS+ is 129 as of 7/1/07)

by Goofus on Aug 13, 2007 2:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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