Insider scoop on Tim Alderson!

My thought is that here he is talking to a reporter about this future.  He's clearly negotiating for a larger bonus than usual - $2.0M over the $1.5M slot; for comparision that's as much as Lincecum got last year at 10th overall pick and Alderson is the 22nd overall pick plus Lincecum got more ($200K) than would have been expected, based on what the #8 and #12 picks got - so it would be dumb of him to say that he's probably signing with the Giants, gives him no leverage.

However, OSU won the World Series after he was drafted, so perhaps the cachet of being part of that team appeals to him.  Of course, that will come with its own set of pressures, potentially being the team that breaks the streak.

But, unless he thinks he going to improve his draft slot by around 20 spots, even if he moved up to 10th pick in 3 years, he only gains maybe $500K plus bonus inflation.  Plus Sabean thinks he can make the majors by the time he comes out again for the draft.  I don't see any baseball prospect turning down that much money AND the chance to make the majors by the time they are 20 years old.

Unless, that is, he thinks he's a #1 pick, like Rick Porcello thinks, in which case he would easily pass that up and gain $1-3M by waiting.  I'll bet that Detroit will shovel out the dough for him.

I think he's going to try to wring out as much bonus as he can but not excessively so (else he probably would have signed with Boras).  The Giants have generally been generous with their first round draft picks, paying more on a percentage basis for them relative to what they did for other draft picks, when compared to the bonuses paid after that pick.  

So he will probably get around $1.6-1.75M bonus, a slight uptick over what other 22nd picks got (if I remember right) and he will probably sign sometime near the end of July, so that he can play about a month in pro ball this year and get a taste of the pros.