Again....
Sweeps week is coming for McCovey Chronicles. It's been a hectic time for the whole staff. All of the suits are driving us nuts, trying to boost the site's ratings for a final push.
McCovey Chronicles Executive #2: That's a little extreme, don't you think? I was thinking there could be a post about Noah Lowry trade speculation. That's always good for the ratings.
Exec #1: C'mon, baby, that's old hat. We've done a "what-if-Lowry's-traded"-post at least three times in the past year. The people want something new.
Exec #2: We're not getting an 8-year-old-boy. Those things are expensive. Clothes, food, kennels - it's not just a matter of hiring one and sitting back. And there's still some juice left in this Lowry thing. Let's run with that.
Exec #1: Tell you what, I'm going to go on Craigslist and check some prices, and you do what you have to do.
What I'd want back for Lowry: Two position players with a chance to crack the 2008 starting lineup. Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement. Andy Marte and Asdrubal Cabrera. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Scott Thorman (with Klesko going the other way). These aren't exactly fair trades for Lowry; at this very second, there's a Mariners fan clutching his stomach and rolling around in pain for no apparent reason. But if you're holding on to a pitcher who is locked up for the next few years, you'd be silly to cut fair trades. "Two almost-ready and young hitters. Too much for you? We'll just move on to the next team then, `cause we really don't have to trade this guy. K.I.T. See ya next summer."
The conventional wisdom is that Matt Morris is probably the pitcher who'll be traded, with an outside shot that it could be Lowry. If you could get two position players for Lowry and one for Morris, though, would you trade 40% of the starting rotation at the same time? That's a pretty dicey proposition. Cain, Lincecum, Zito, Misch, and Ortiz or Sanchez still wouldn't be a bad collection of starters, but depth would be sacrificed for a couple of years. If one or two of those pitchers go down with an injury, you might be watching a rotation with Travis Blackley and Matt Kinney every fifth day. Kaboom.
The next wave of pitching prospects - Clayton Tanner, Ben Snyder, and Henry Sosa - are still a couple of years away, at least. It'd be a huge, huge gamble to trade both Lowry and Morris, but it isn't like any of the solutions to this roster mess come without risk. And if you trade Lowry, Morris will only buy you one more (expensive) season. If the Giants could get back three young question marks to replace three of the exclamation-points-after-naughty-words that currently taint the lineup, it would be worth that risk.
Comment starters: Would you trade Lowry and Morris at the same time? What would it take for you now to give up the cost certainty of Noah Lowry?
Comment deadener: Could you really see Sabean build a team around three hand-picked prospects and the Fred Lewis-types already in the system, or would you expect him to trade for limited upside guys like Ben Broussard and Horacio Ramirez and fill the rest of the team by giving bloated contracts to David Eckstein, Eric Byrnes, and Mike Lowell? Yeah, me too.
0 recs |
108 comments
Comments
Re: Again....
I actually like Lowell. Not a good fit for the Giants, but i like him a helluva lot more than the other scrappy scrap-heapers.
Noah's value will never be higher than it is right now. Sabes needs to channel Billy Beane and trade Noah for 2 solid prospects. I'm fine sending both Lowry and Morris. Sanchez and Ortiz (shudder!) in the rotation?
by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Well, if the Giants had Eckstein, Byrnes, and Lowell instead of Vizquel, Roberts, and Feliz, they'd be contenders right now. The point isn't that they're bad ballplayers right now, but that they're terrible bets to retain their value. Just like, oh, Vizquel, Roberts, and Ray Durham.
by Grant on Jul 23, 2007 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Whipping Boy on Jul 23, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by TLF on Jul 23, 2007 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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I know this was a throw-away, tongue-in-cheek comment, but it needs to be said:
Dave Roberts? Bengie Molina? Ray Durham? Randy Winn? Marquis Grissom? Omar Vizquel? Scrappy...savvy...not white.
by leftymalo on Jul 23, 2007 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Molina & Vizquel have god-given ability, Durham & Winn are massively underachieving, and Grissom is named after a sedan.
by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Randy Winn 2007: .294/.347/.417
by SF Pete on Jul 23, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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I would certainly trade both Lowry and Morris if we could get the right deals for them. Morris, obviously, won't be a part of the next good Giants team and I have a feeling his trade value isn't going to get any better over the offseason. Lowry is a tougher decision, but I just can't see how he can continue to be a good (or even an average) major league starting pitcher if he doesn't stop giving up a million baserunners a game. If some GM wants to give some valuable parts of him, you've got to do it, even if it makes the 2007 (and 2008) rotations a little weaker.
by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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At home: 3.21 ERA
On the Road :5.03ERA
I just hope, that their are some GM's out their that don't look at his numbers to closely.
by ramirez415 on Jul 23, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by kennv on Jul 23, 2007 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Shipping Lowry and Morris pretty much depends on whether Sanchez is going to be a starter in 2008.
Cain-Lincecum-Sanchez-Zito-Mr. Scrap heap whomever is a rotation I would feel comfy with - if I had an above average offense to go with it.
Obv., we should only dump Lowry in a steal.
Actually - I think if we do trade both, we should get the 2 position prospects + some lower level high upside pitching prospects.
by zenbitz on Jul 23, 2007 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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No. But I don't think the Giants should trade him for less. At Lowry's worst, he's an underpaid league-average guy. That's pretty danged valuable. Trading him for a single position player prospect -- unless we're talking about a Ryan Braun or Adam Jones type -- isn't something I would do. Just because TINSTAAPP is burned into our brains doesn't mean the position players aren't as risky.
by Grant on Jul 23, 2007 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Anyway, watching the Giants it sure seems that way.
by howtheyscored on Jul 23, 2007 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Does He play any OTHER positions?
by victor frankenstein on Jul 23, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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This is leaving aside the question of whether Lowry is actually capable of being a league-average starter. He's not now, despite the wins and ERA. I'll leave it to the scouty types to offer opinions on whether he can get back to his 2005 form; but the numbers don't look good.
by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me guess:
Exec 2 = Goofus?
Evidence: I believe Goofus is a father, and would know the cost and upkeep required on an 8 year old boy. Thus, he would be the exec that presents that information. As for Exec 1, well, he's certainly not Natto as far as I can tell. Ergo, Grant.
by howtheyscored on Jul 23, 2007 11:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Let me guess:
by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
A good team needs Big 3 of starters. In SF case that could be Lincecum, Cain and Zito. Then if either Sanchez or Misch pans out you got your #4 guy. Your #5 guy can come from a number of sources - minors, trade or FA.
I have no trouble trading Morris, if for nothing else to clear salary, though would try to package for a greater return. If Lowry is to be placed on this season's trade deadline market he would seem to be one of the most sought after pitchers. Young, LH and contact controllable.
by wilriv21 on Jul 23, 2007 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
by giants92388 on Jul 23, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Is Lowry comparable to Garland?
by Evan on Jul 23, 2007 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
So yeah, unfortunately, I think trading both Morris and Lowry is a must but with Lowry you can be picky and Sabean better be damn picky.
by covenant on Jul 23, 2007 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
While it might be nice to have a rotation so solid that Zito is relegated to the #5 spot (where that worthless POS belongs), not being able to hit the ball means you are wasting all the quality starts given to you by the pitching staff anyway.
by War on Jul 23, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by BradIsMyBrother on Jul 23, 2007 12:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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He's hitting .271/.291/.408. 82 OPS+. That's not good. Not even for a catcher (average NL catcher is hitting .254/.311/.384). He's only going to get older and, probably, worse.
I would love to acquire a young catcher like Salty or Clement if we could.
by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Catch you on the flip side, dudemeisters!
NOT!
And remember, always recycle...TO THE EXTREME!
by Iggy on Jul 23, 2007 12:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Hi, Iggy. You look like you've got something to say. Do you?
IGGY
Yes, I certainly do! I have to go now. My planet needs me.
"Note: Iggy died on the way back to his home planet".
by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jul 23, 2007 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by lunaticfringe1 on Jul 23, 2007 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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Lowry is cheap and getting better and lefty. Why the rush to trade him?
by positiveuphemism on Jul 23, 2007 12:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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Trading him now might be best, because he probably has some awesome value, instead of a few years from now, when he's pitching even worse.
by Anticon23 on Jul 23, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Natto on Jul 23, 2007 12:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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Then we trade Morris to Tampa Bay for their 3B prospect Evan Longoria (AA).
Then the future looks bright...4 years down the line...
C - Clement
1B - Villalona (not a good defensive 3B)
2B - Frandsen
SS - Noonan
3B - Longoria
LF - Balentien
CF - Lewis
RF - Scheirholtz?
by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Does Winn want to go back to Seattle?
Does Seattle even want Winn back, discounts included?
by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Why would Tampa Bay want Matt Morris?
by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2007 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Who knows?
It wouldn't be the first time that kid over in Tampa Bay took another bong rip and traded away half of his talent.
by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by The Gene Hackman on Jul 23, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Natto on Jul 23, 2007 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
On the other hand, Lowry to TB does make some sense.
by English Professor on Jul 23, 2007 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: +1
Simma down...
by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: +1
by English Professor on Jul 23, 2007 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm BawLing with laughter
by awesomer on Jul 23, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by ramirez415 on Jul 23, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by APGiantsFan on Jul 23, 2007 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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And to think I've been calling him Kirk for all these years!
by Glenallen Hill's Helmet on Jul 23, 2007 12:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by Pants Man on Jul 23, 2007 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Stuttering John Tamargo on Jul 23, 2007 1:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by groug on Jul 23, 2007 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by mxmob33 on Jul 23, 2007 1:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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Kevin Goldstein: I'd ranking them Jones, Clement, Balentien, and from what I can tell, the Mariners want to make a deal, but they don't want to give up Jones or Clement at all, and only Balentien if it's a great deal.
Jones is untouchable and so is Clement probably. And I don't think we have a package that could land us Balentien.
Thoughts?
by xanthan on Jul 23, 2007 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Roger on Jul 23, 2007 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's hit 7 homers and 19 rbi the last 8 games
by awesomer on Jul 23, 2007 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: He's hit 7 homers and 19 rbi the last 8 games
They have a big hole at 3rd right now with Nomar having a down year and Laroche has been hitting the crap out of the ball lately. It doesn't make sense for LA to try and move him.
by xanthan on Jul 23, 2007 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
I don't know if we have a legit 4th starter waiting in the wings though. Between Ortiz (if re-signed for cheap), Misch, Sanchez, Begg, Hennessey and Correia (did I miss someone who could be solid/start showing glimpses of being solid next year?), are there two decent 2008 starters in there (who we won't keep in the bullpen instead)? I'd even deal with one and a musical 5th starter rotation next year. I just want to see PROGRESS next year, even if that's just young players struggling instead of old ones.
Here's what I'd want: An ML-ready position player, a solid prospect and a league-average reliever for Lowry, with you also taking Winn, Durham or (preferably) Roberts's's contract off our hands, and another ready prospect (and a 2nd lower prospect or cash) for Morris.
Why?
We're not going to be good next year with Winn/Roberts in the outfield or with Durham/Vizquel in the infield. The only one likely to be worth the money is Vizquel with a cheaper contract. I'm assuming Kline (or one of out younger relievers) will be dealt, and since one of our starters will probably come from our relief corps, we'll need one. These deals would give a chance for Frandsen and our bevy of potentially-league-average outfielders to develop. I want Lewis and Schierholtz to get 150 AB's a piece the rest of the year and 350 each next year. Lewis has been slow to develop through the minors, so don't pull a Giants and expect him to magically turn into his ceiling (Roberts?) overnight. But the idea of giving prospects a chance to play regularly is not taught at the Brian Sabean School Of Signing Scrappy Veterans Past Their Peak And Expecting Them To Make A Playoff Team.
I'd actually (in addition to? or part of the above? I don't care.) really like the Giants to go fetch Pena from Boston. They're looking for a 4th outfielder, maybe they'd take Roberts (and not need us to pay his salary). Pena even THIS YEAR would be quite a boost - spelling Bonds when he sits and starting the other days in right, with power (another foreign concept to this team).
by jasomack on Jul 23, 2007 1:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
I shouldn't of put "Why?" in there either. I didn't really give much of a why. Payroll flexibility, room for prospects to develop, younger team, we'll probably develop some more pitching the next couple years, blah blah blah.
by jasomack on Jul 23, 2007 2:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
1)Deals that don't make sense today to teams like Seattle and Atlanta may well make sense in the last hours before the deadline, depending where they are in the standings and who is left on the table. The Giants should drive a hard deal on young, cheap players like Lowry while taking almost anything for older more expensive players like Morris.
2)It's hard for me to know how I really feel about Lowry without knowing more about how smart he is -- he is at a stage where some pitchers who are hard workers and good learners continue to add pitches and go above what looked like their ceiling to folks like us. I'd trade him for a top-notch catching propect or a five-tool triple A infielder or outfielder, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him still around winning 12 to 18 games a year a decade from now. My biggest fear is that Zito ends up as the Lowry some of you foresee for 2009-10 rather than Lowry himself.
by NearestNorwich on Jul 23, 2007 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
I think the trades we will see will be similar to trades Sabean has made in the past. Trades that brought in players like Kent, Snow, Schmidt, Nen, Burks, Lofton, Livan, etc - established MLB players.
I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. Certainly, Brian's trading record has stunk lately. Perhaps with the vapors of "contending" gone, Sabean can bring back real players of worth, just as he has in the past. Or perhaps, he won't.
But I wouldn't expect prospects.
by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 2:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
Fortunately, though, that seems to be simply a case of MLB.com's writer completely misreading this Chronicle article which makes it clear that Contreras and Perez are alternatives to Morris in the trade market, and that Buehrle's extension strengthened the market from the sellers' perspective.
by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Alter of Sabeanth Day Adventist
by Grant on Jul 23, 2007 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB players vs prospects
Sabean thinks, I agree, that with a strong pitching staff, solid defense, the yard they play in and a few bats, SF could surprise some people in 2008 and 2009. Sabean is not an idiot and I think he will have ample time to prove this.
by wilriv21 on Jul 23, 2007 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
This year: .337/.397/.538, 14 HR in 398 AB, 40:46 BB/K ratio
Career: http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Carter.shtml
He's blocked by Conor Jackson and Rotoworld thinks he's probably not going to get a chance with Arizona. Do we have anything they might want in return for him? If he wasn't too expensive, he could make a decent 1st base stopgap bat, if not a longterm solution.
by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 2:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Jul 23, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Pants Man on Jul 23, 2007 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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I think even Lance Niekro could match that production...
by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by SabeanSupporter on Jul 23, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you misread
Also Todd Linden was far, far away from "the best hitter in the minors", you have to look at things in context. He was repeating AAA, he struggled before, age, I'm sure he wasn't in anyone's top prospect lists. Best hitter in the Giants minors maybe but that's like the Special Olympics.
I don't think anyone here objects to pushing for a Crawford or an Upton, but almost everyone here thinks Cain and Lincecum are untouchable. Therefore an upton or crawford is just not going to happen. Outside shot maybe of dealing Lowry + Sanchez + Sosa for Crawford maybe, but that's a pretty steep price and I still think Tampa could probably do better.
by awesomer on Jul 23, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I think you misread
by SabeanSupporter on Jul 23, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I think you misread
by Lyle on Jul 23, 2007 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
by jponry on Jul 23, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Joseph Koshansky? I wonder how much power he really has.
by Anticon23 on Jul 23, 2007 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Way out there...
Lowry, Morris, Durham, Omar, Sanchez
for
Renteria, Kelly Johnson, Salty
Trades like this just don't seem to happen. Too many marquee players. But like I said, I'm crazy thinking.
by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup, too many marquee players
Anyway KJ makes a lot less than Durham, is a much better player and is under control for the next 4-5 years he ain't going nowhere. You pretty much just crippled the braves middle infield for Lowry and a reliever in Sanchez (who the Giants are terribly misusing/lowering value by not having him start).
I'm pretty sure Schuerholtz wouldn't take all those Giants players just for Salty and say Brent Lillibridge or Yunel Escobar, no way he does it with Edgar and KJ included.
by awesomer on Jul 23, 2007 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Way out there...
by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Way out there...
by someguynamedg on Jul 23, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Way out there...
by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by out machine on Jul 23, 2007 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
pretty much
by delorean on Jul 23, 2007 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by getnby on Jul 23, 2007 5:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What about...
by ZeeGerman on Jul 23, 2007 5:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by smedley on Jul 23, 2007 6:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by Lyle on Jul 24, 2007 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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I'm not saying these guys can't be moved, I just don't think you're getting a coveted player, that's all. Think about it from the other side, are you giving up a prized young player for Matt Morris or Noah Lowry? Besides, as it's been pointed out many times already, that's not Sabean's MO.
by smedley on Jul 23, 2007 7:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
To think that some of these teams are NOT looking for guys like Lowry and Morris is absurd.
by BawLa on Jul 23, 2007 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
Put yourself in the Mariners position:
You are contending for the first time in years. Would You rather depend on Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez or would You like to take a chance on Morris (especially since Morris is going to be making a little more than average money for an average starter in 2008)?
by thatdog on Jul 23, 2007 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Again....
So yeah, you probably want that.
by groug on Jul 23, 2007 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOLrus
by EliminateMe on Jul 23, 2007 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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