How much money do we plan to save?
The general consensus here (and elsewhere) seems to be that the Giants went cheap with their fifth and sixth selections: Williams at #43 and Culberson at #51. The way the narrative goes, there's not much money left in the budget since they're going to be paying 4 of the first 32 picks of the draft. So, they drafted players they wouldn't have considered until much later under normal circumstances, figuring that they will happiily accept much less money than their draft slot warrants.
Everything about this narrative seemed reasonable to me, until I looked up the signing bonuses for the top 100 picks in 2005 and 2006 in Baseball America. I only found a few examples of teams clearly saving over $100,000 with a signing.
The Cubs saved about $150K in the first round last year, while the White Sox saved about $150K in the second round last year.
- $1.6M, Kiker, TEX
- $1.475M, Colvin, CHC
- $1.7M, Snider, TOR
- 500K, Fontaine, ATL
- 330K, Long, CWS
- 480K, Jay, STL
2005? Wade Townsend to Tampa Bay at #8 was a 500-700K bargain. There were some odd issues with Townsend, but I think the D-Rays knew what they were doing. This is clearly the biggest price break of the last two years. The Marlins saved about $200K at #22, the D-backs saved about $150K at #49, and the Astros saved about $140K at #89.
By my estimation, that's one pick in two years who saved their team more than $200K, and he was picked in the top ten. Is there any reason to believe that the Giants are going to save any more money than this with these two picks? That they are somehow taking signability to a whole new level? If not, the likely choices are a) the Giants really wanted these players and were worried they wouldn't be available in the fifth round, or b) there were over a hundred players on their board that they preferred over Williams and Culberson, but they overlooked all of them in an effort to save $200-300K total. I honestly don't know which of these scenarios is accurate or how valuable these players will turn out to be; I was just surprised to learn that we're talking about chump change in an organization's budget here.
(Also, I realize that the Giants could have drafted players that were considered difficult signs with these picks, and either paid well over slot or lowballed them to the point where they wouldn't sign. However, when people say the Giants went "cheap" with those two picks, I am assuming that they mean they were planning to pay under slot, not simply that they were avoiding players who would require more than slot. Of course, nothing would save more money than drafting an unsignable player, but that clearly wasn't the case here.)
Anyway, I'm just throwing this out there for Brute, Doc, and Steve and the rest of you out there who understand amateur baseball a lot more than I do? Am I missing something, or is there not much money to be saved by going "cheap" once you get past the first ten picks or so?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
0 recs |
22 comments
Comments
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 9, 2007 12:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DaddyMo on Parole
by Moggeee on Jun 9, 2007 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
I see nothing illogical about what the Giants did.
With Jackson...the Giants under Sabean have made clear that strong defense up the middle is how they want to build a good team. They signed Vizquel, Roberts and Matheny specifically for defense, and then when they signed Molina, it was the defense they quoted as to why, not the offense.
Also, as I've quoted before: drafting a good defensive catcher for a young pitching staff (especially ones who need to work on breaking pitch control) is like drafting a strong left tackle for your franchise QB. I think every Niner fan can relate to that.
At 42, there weren't a large number of catchers available...there were two main options: A.) Grandal, a very good defensive high schooler who has MAJOR signability issues (as shown by how far he fell). He also had explicit offensive questions as noted by MLB.com's scouting report. Or there was B.) Canham, a guy I really liked who has even better intangibles than Williams and good offensive upside, but enough defensive questions that some thought he might not stick.
So, was it the good offensive player who might not stick at catcher, the high schooler with a high ceiling who probably wasn't going to sign, or the polished defensive catcher who could've been gone at 5 (no matter what BA thinks he was; as was pointed out to me so brutally and so often, teams will use the media to try and manipulate draft status)?
I don't see the Giants choice is out of character for them. Whether or not it was an overdraft in talent, this was one case where it was better to overdraft and ensure you have than risk waiting and get a substandard part.
And how often do you see minor league free agents signed for short-season ball?
Culberson is a bit harder. There wasn't the need there...of course, the Giants already had gotten Noonan. I don't think this is a case of purely overvaluing someone. Even BA admitted they had him 'a little low on their list' (while saying the Giants did have him high), and they do talk up his value.
Who did the Giants miss out on over him? Obviously, Canham was still there, but with Jackson, he would've been superfluous. Corey Brown is a legitimate talking point, though. But beyond that? Mangini was flawed; Fields had a bad year, Desme had injury issues, and Cozart had a lot of questions. And heaven forbid the Giants had drafted Daniel Payne, whose MLB scouting report says Payne is the kind of athlete who gets dubbed as a "real baseball player" and then talks about him having instincts and being hard-nosed. The people on here might think he has AIDS, pays off umpires and eats kittens with that sort of a description.
Bottom line: BA talked up Culberson a lot talent-wise, so he's not a bad player. They also indicate the Giants had spent time looking at him recently and really liked him.
Maybe I would've taken someone else, but as has been brought up about Mills: The Giants looked at him in workouts right before the draft, and passed...thus they must have seen something. I take the same logic: they didn't pick Culberson out of a hat, they saw something they liked, and they overpicked because they didn't feel he'd be there in the 5th.
I don't find that either hard to believe or a crime at all. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
One other thing: the cheap thing. First of all, how is drafting a high schooler late cheap against drafting a college player? The high schooler has much more leverage in going back to school, and usually demand more.
Secondly, Culberson was open about his demands, they're right around $400,000, maybe higher. The picks around 50 cost about $620,000 in the last year, so that $200K is appropriate. It's not a world-saving amount. $425K is about the 89 slot (where the Giants selected Tanner the following year), or, about one round's slot. That's not a huge overdraft, money-wise.
It's not like this was unexpected, I'd been bringing up for a couple of weeks the gulf of picks between the sandwich round and the Giants next pick, and speculated they'd reach for who they liked.
I have no problem with that.
by BruteSentiment on Jun 9, 2007 12:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by BruteSentiment on Jun 9, 2007 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 9, 2007 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How Long?
by Moggeee on Jun 9, 2007 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How Long?
Baron and I combined on writing up a writeup onevery Giants draft pick. 52 of them.
If I wanted to print it out, complete with fancy HTML coding for the headers, standard size, it would be 30 pages. 8,800 words.
All that, plus I added two minor league notebooks (essentially, SFDugout.com's ripoff of Steve S), a team report on Augusta, and Minor League Power rankings in the last 36 hours.
That's before the research. Which two transferred between universities together? Which two were high school teammates? Which guy played quarterback, running back, wide receiver AND cornerback for his HS football team...in one season? (is it any surprise he decided to quit in favor of baseball the next year? Less work!) Credit to Dr. B for helping me find Barbosa's stats...that one eluded both of us. A few dozen web pages for each prospect, probing for every little bit of info we could find, from fluff articles to high school radar gun readings.
Trust me, you haven't begun to see me at work. And Baron's pretty damned impressive, too.
On an entirely different note, I'm dead tired on four hours of sleep, can't sleep, and am watching House on DVD. Within 45 minutes, he's made me freak out over the medicine I have to take for my condition, and threw in mono jokes for our draftee that suffered from that...someone just barely beat House to the kissing jokes, but I can't remember who.
Help!
by BruteSentiment on Jun 9, 2007 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How Long?
That was me.
GO TO SLEEP!
That didn't help me, though. I got 4 hours sleep and am now completely awake.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 9, 2007 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
30 pages
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jun 9, 2007 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by jponry on Jun 9, 2007 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 9, 2007 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by JakeS on Jun 9, 2007 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
Heck, they both could have been promoted to the big team tomorrow. :)
by sharksrog on Jun 9, 2007 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
(Especially if Alfonzo has a fracture.)
by Moggeee on Jun 9, 2007 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
Fairley hit 9 this last year while Noonan had 15. I think all three of those guys have a chance to hit for some power. None of them will likely be mashers but each should show some pop in pro ball.
Regarding Williams, the more I research him the more I'm feeling that Brute is right and that BA is greatly undervaluing him.
His defensive skills are universally praised. He was third on his team in batting average and poted an OPS of .951 this last year.
I really don't think he was going to be there in the 5th round. If his last year is indicative of a change in his approach, swing or further physical development, we might just have ourselves a fine two way catching prospect.
I believe that Culberson and Williams were drafted where they were b/c we really wanted them and didn't think they'd make it to the 5th round.
I really like our Day 2 draft as well. I think we may have found ourselves 4 top shelf prospects and 4-6 more solid ones. This draft should really help replenish our farm system.
by brauber on Jun 9, 2007 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
I do, however adore the second day of the draft. Tons of good picks and solid players.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jun 9, 2007 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
According to that account, Culberson hit 6 homers with a wooden bat and impressed the Giants in that tryout.
And presumably, the Giants could do additional things with him to "kick the tires" and do more due dilligence on seeing if they like his makeup and if he has "intangibles" they are seeking. Get to know the young man they hope to draft.
So the Giants clearly has a leg up on any other team on how good Culberson is, since they are only one of two teams to get up close and personal with Culberson. And given the Braves habit of drafting high school players in their local area, odds are they would have selected Culberson at some point, perhaps just before the Giants could select him in the 5th round, cause if the Giants thought he was good, probably the Braves would agree.
Given their private try out with him, I'm OK with the Giants "overdrafting" to get him. Better to overdraft and have him, than to stick to principles and watch someone draft him away from you before you can draft him in the 5th round, presuming you didn't see anyone else you liked better than Culberson at #51.
According to a post-draft conference call with Sabean (on MLB.com somewhere), some reporter asked him if Boras was a factor in his picks, as Sabean avoided selecting Boras clients that many thought was a better talent, and Sabean froze him with a devastating curve by noting, "better according to whom?" He stuck to the company line that has been said all season long about their draft picks: talent first, sign-ability and agent is secondary. They simply didn't agree that Boras's clients were better talents.
And time will tell if that is true or not.
But Boras is not the touch of Midas, there's always the example of Matt White, one of his clients drafted by the Giants and he screwed the Giants because there was an old rule that the prospect could declare free agency if the Giants didn't offer him some sort of documentation, maybe a contract of some sort, and so White became a free agent and sign a $10M contract with someone and basically flopped, I'm not even sure if he ever made the majors - served that team right for stealing our pick away.
And do we need to mention all this Dodger signings, Dreifort, Brown, then Chan Ho Park to the Rangers. He's probably as responsible for the Dodgers malaise during the late 90's as anyone with those pitchers sucking up a lot of payroll.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2007 11:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
I have no way of knowing if Boras was really not a factor or if Sabean was spinning it by saying he wasn't a factor and "better according to whom?"
And I'm not saying this because I'm critical of the draft and obsessed with how much Sabean sucks. I really have no clue how good this draft was and I won't know for years.
by groug on Jun 10, 2007 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
and if this is all such a crapshoot, why do the giants think they are so much smarter than all the other clubs that they draft some catcher rated around #200 or worse, at what, #43?.why not roll the dice that he's still there in the 5th round instead?
if its schuerholz in ATL, you probably look the other way, but this group?
geez, they had 6 of first 51 picks and looks like they threw the last two away..i knew this draft was too good to be true..they broke the bank for Zito, but when it comes to the draft the budget always seems to be a factor..
by slojoe on Jun 10, 2007 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
Just because the Giants selecte prospects others don't like as much doesn't mean that they are overdrafting.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2007 11:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: How much money do we plan to save?
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 10, 2007 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 





















