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DrB's Giants Draft Board

I have made a list of 5 players who fit the Giants needs, are reasonably likely to be available or better, and who the Giants are reasonably likely to draft for each of the first 6 picks and then some "sleeper" picks for rounds 5+. I list the players in my order of preference, not necessarily the Giants preference, since I don't know what their preference is.   Some of the picks at one level are likely to fall to the next pick, especially with picks 22, 29, 32, 43.  Since I don't repeat listed players from pick to pick, anybody who falls to the next pick can be added to the pool of player I think might be picked there.  For the 3 first round picks, I also list a player who I don't want.  Here goes:

#10  1.  Beau Mills  2. Jason Heyward  3.  Matt Dominguez  4.  Matt LaPorta  5.  Justin Jackson.  I might throw myself down the stairs if we take........Madison Bumgarner.

#22  1.  Nick Schmidt  2.  Michael Main  3.  Casey Weathers  4.  Corey Brown  5.  Kevin Ahrens.  I might throw myself down the stairs if we take.......Aaron Poreda.

#29  1.  Nevin Griffith  2.  Will Middlebrooks  3.  Todd Frazier  4.  Kyle Russell  5.  Tim Alderson.  I might throw myself down the stairs if we take.....Chris Carpenter.

#32.  1.  Kyle Blair  2.  Nick Noonan  3.  Wendell Fairley  4.  Jon Lucroy  5.  Mitch Canham.

#43  1.  Travis Mattais  2.  James Simmons  3.  Travis Banwart  4.  Nathan Vineyard  5.  Nick Hagedone

#51.  1.  Kevin Kulbacki  2.  J. P. Arencibia  3.  Cole St. Clair  4.  Josh Horton  5.  Wes Roemer.

As you can see, enough players listed at higher levels will likely drop far enough that we would never have to consider the 5 I listed at #51.  That's more to ensure we have players on the board when we get there.  So, in summary, my draft board looks like this:

  1.  Beau Mills
  2.  Jason Heyward
  3.  Matt Dominguez
  4.  Matt Laporta
  5.  Justin Jackson
  6.  Nick Schmidt
  7.  Michael Main
  8.  Casey Weathers
  9.  Corey Brown
  10. Kevin Ahrens
  11.  Nevin Griffith
  12.  Will Middlebrooks
  13.  Todd Frazier
  14.  Kyle Russell
  15.  Tim Alderson
  16.  Kyle Blair
  17.  Nick Noonan
  18.  Wendell Fairely
  19.  Jon Lucroy
  20.  Mitch Canham
  21.  Travis Mattais
  22.  James Simmons
  23.  Travis Banwart
  24.  Nathan Vineyard
  25.  Nick Hagedone
  26.  Kevin Kulbacki
  27.  J. P. Arencibia
  28.  Cole St. Clair
  29.  Josh Horton
  30.  Wes Roemer
If we just went down this list taking the top player from it still available with each pick, i think we'd have a pretty good draft.

Now, here's a list of 3 "sleepers".  Players who I really like who are not listed on BA's Top 200 who I would like to see us target in rounds 5+:

Blake Stouffer- IF/OF, Texas A&M.
Wes Etheridge? Etherton?  I can't remember and I forgot to look it up before I started typing this.  RHP, UC Irvine.
Reid Fronk, OF, UNC.

What do you think?  Who would you add to the list?  Take off?  How far down the list would we go up to pick #51?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
DrB, I can't really add much to your analysis because I don't follow the college and high school prospects enough to add anything. I would like to thank you and BruteSentiment and a few others who regularly post your thoughts on the subject. It's great stuff.

by Sayhey on Jun 6, 2007 10:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Be Ready for a player who slips down
A wild hunch says you are looking for some hitters.  What does SF do if some of the top rated talent drops to them once again this year?
Let's say either a Wieters, Moustakas, Porcello, Parker or Vitters is available at #10.

by wilriv21 on Jun 6, 2007 10:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
B, is there any spot at which you would be happy with Poreda?

Note:  I am not advocating picking Poreda.  All I know about Poreda is what I see here.  But it seems as if you are to Poreda as Brute is to Heyward.  In other words, you don't even like him at #43.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 10:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Poreda
OK.  Let's look at Poreda's season stats for USF:  7-6, 2.89, 99.2 IP, 18 BB, 66 K.  Now, from everything I've read about him, Poreda is a one pitch pitche.  A good pitch, and an important pitch, but still one pitch.    A college player who is "raw as rain."   Now, go back and look at his stats again.  Do those look like the stats of a high upside pitcher who is undeveloped?  No, they look like those of a polished soft tosser. Poreda may turn out to be the best pitcher to come out of this draft, but I think the chances of that are almost infiniteismally small.  We don't need to be screwing around with this draft.  It's a good draft, a deep draft.  There are a lot of players out there that have every inch of Poreda's ceiling and about 10 times the liklihood of reaching it.  If he falls to the 5'th round, I wouldn't scream too loud if we took him at # 164. but to be honest, I'd rather take Stouffer or Etheridge there, maybe Poreda over Reid Fronk?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

PS
I feel about the same way for Chris Carpenter, but for different reasons.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: PS
Where is Brute?  Shouldn't you guys be fighting about prospects?

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: PS
I wouldn't fight with DrB.  We just have intense disagreements.

Frankly, I'm too tired to get into one now, besides, we've been over it.

The time for debate about what should happen is over.  The time for complaining about what did happened will be here soon enough.

by BruteSentiment on Jun 7, 2007 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: PS
Yeah, never fight with a doctor.  In med school, they learn how to reach into your chest and rip your heart out like Patrick Swayze in "Road House".  (I had to learn this lesson the hard way.)

This is why I plan on kicking Kenshinb's ass before next semester.

Carol Midgen takes calls from Ryan Klesko when driving. (.308/.383/.477 as of 6/5/07)

by Goofus on Jun 7, 2007 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brute
I really agree with Brute on most things.  

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 6:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Andrew Brackman seems stairs-worthy for at least the first round.

by Grant on Jun 6, 2007 10:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
This may not be the most talented draft class ever, but it might have the best names ever. Mike Moustakas, Madison Bumgarner, Reid Fronk, Nathan Vineyard...it's like the editorial board of Mad Magazine.
Jesse Foppert: Welcome home, my son. And meet your adopted brother, Kelvin Pichardo. He's from the Dominican Republic.

by leftymalo on Jun 6, 2007 10:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I still get a kick that the Giants had both Aaron Hornostaj and Aaron Sobieraj, occasionally on the same team. I like to think that they were arch-rivals.

by Grant on Jun 6, 2007 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fairley and Davis
I have Fairley at #18 above.  I probably should have included Davis in there somewhere.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Fairley and Davis
That may be true, but this is now about the all-name team

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops!
I'm an old guy.  It's past my bedtime.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
If we drafted Cole St. Clair, I'd like to see him nicknamed "Corky". And then Waiting for Guffman clips should be shown on the video board every time he pitches.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 6, 2007 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I am intrigued by your thoughts and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I dont know how deep your draft knowledge goes, but I have a question for you. I went to Los Altos HS, and they just won the CCS Division II baseball championship for the first time in 35 years. Their star hitter, Kellen McColl is going to Stanford to play ball. Are you familiar enough with him to know if he will be drafted? I think its been about 10 years since the last LAHS player was drafted and that was in the 51st round or something. Any info would be appreciated.

by joebirdie3 on Jun 6, 2007 10:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Did they really?  I went to Mountain View HS, and I am pretty sure that no one has ever been drafted straight out of LAHS, and I think the same is true of MVHS save one draftee in 2004 who went to Stanfurd.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

McColl
Sorry, about all I know of HS players is what I find in BA.  Any subscribers to pgcrosschecker out there?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McColl
I'm assuming we're talking California?  They have a list of 160 California players and he's not in it.

by Derelict on Jun 7, 2007 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McColl
Yeah.  Los Altos is in the Bay Area, between Sunnyvale and Palo Alto (and next to Mountain View).

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 7, 2007 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McColl
Actually, I've had several friends from Los Altos, and I believe the proper geographical phrasing is, "Yes, the Bay Area is near Los Altos."
"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Jun 7, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: McColl
yeah i've had to deal with that for 15 years. "i'm from los altos. it's near stanford/palo alto/san jose/san francisco area..." you just go down the list to see what people are familiar with.

by joebirdie3 on Jun 7, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Hey guys, first post, but I've been reading here for awhile now, so here it goes.

DrB, I like your list.  Still praying that Wieters' signability concerns push him down the list, but that's pretty unrealistic, I know.  

I'd actually like to put in a plug for a different guy at the end of the sandwich round, though.  Michael Taylor, Stanford's right fielder would be a very good selection there, or a fantastic one if he slipped all the way to the fifth round (HIGHLY unlikely, I would think).

Taylor had a good year on a pretty mediocre Cardinal team.  The squad went just .500 and finished out of the running in the Pac-10, but Taylor hit .335 with 12 home runs a .584 slugging and .395 OBP.  He also hit two homeruns in one inning against USC late in the year, one of which was a grand slam.

Those numbers don't exactly tell the whole story, though-- Taylor is a pretty notoriously slow starter, and I think in longer seasons in the pros, his stats would only get better.  For a lot of the season, he didn't have much support in the lineup around him, either (down the stretch, when he finally did, his numbers skyrocketed). He's also got a killer arm from right field.  

Taylor would basically be a pick for his power potential, as much as anything.  Having seen him in person, the guy is definitely no shorter than 6'6" and probably weighs a very solid 240.  He has a nice, compact swing too, without any holes that I can see.

Biggest knock on him is his speed on defense-- Mays Field might be perfect for him with the short porch in right, though, as long as we've got a fast CF who can cover most of the alley in right center.

Anyway, I just wanted to plug my personal favorite local prospect.  I'd be ecstatic if the Giants got him in the fifth round, and wouldn't complain at all if we nabbed him just ahead of everybody else at 51 (I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the 2nd if we didn't take him at 51).

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Jun 6, 2007 11:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
You are new here, but have you read my posts?  No Stanfurd.  Never.  Ever.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Damn, I was about to post "In before NSCEGF and a Stanfurd reference".
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 6, 2007 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I guess I should have expected to run into a little Kal resistance.  That said, if we did draft him, Taylor would be an ex-Stanford player so no worries there. And hey, whenever Tyson Ross is eligible, I wouldn't complain about adding him, the way I look at the rivalry, is once they're out of college, if they can help the Giants, I'm all for drafting them.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Jun 6, 2007 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
This is one of those times I don't mind being predictable.  GO BEARS!  :)

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 6, 2007 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Roll on youuuuu Giants!!!  :^)
"No batboy can throw a ball like that." - Randy Winn, when someone noted that Lincecum look like a teenage batboy

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 7, 2007 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Hey Smoke, there is a nice article on Michael Taylor (by Darren Sabredra) in the San Jose Mercury today.  It should be on their website for the next week.
"No batboy can throw a ball like that." - Randy Winn, when someone noted that Lincecum look like a teenage batboy

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 7, 2007 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
DrB looks pretty good overall. Though I am not as high on Corey Brown as you are.  I would much rather have Ahrens.
Sabean stop giving away our first round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Jun 7, 2007 12:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I believe the Reds will be drafting Mr. Ahrens in the first round. He does look like a good player.
Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle on Jun 7, 2007 8:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
probably dumb idea, but i would just as soon the Giants take 4-5 pitchers with their top 6 picks
in the event Sabean and his staff are still around...they have shown some ability to draft and/or develop pitchers, why not concentrate on your strong suit?

by slojoe on Jun 7, 2007 9:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Covered pretty extensively in Grant's post Tuesday.
Carol Midgen takes calls from Ryan Klesko when driving. (.308/.383/.477 as of 6/5/07)

by Goofus on Jun 7, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
sorry, have limited internet avail recently..will check it out... thanks Goofus and apologies for the rehash...

by slojoe on Jun 7, 2007 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchers
I think we should take at least 2 and possibly 3 pitchers.  I would support taking more if they are clearly the best players, but there are a lot of good hitters available so it's hard to think the best player will always be a pitcher.

We can afford to draft HS pitchers because we don't have a pressing need for starting pitchers.  Some of the names I like are Michael Main, Nevin Griffith, Casey Weathers.  I'm really intriqued by Kyle Blair who sounds a lot like a younger version of Matt Cain.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pitchers
(thanks for the good info on the draft, Dr. B)

i hope they will draft pitchers, in case the Sabean staff remains...

by slojoe on Jun 7, 2007 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Doc, I don't know nearly as much about amateur prospects as you or Brute do. Correction: I don't know anything about amateur prospects. And I'm also not a doctor, so you don't need me giving you advice on your personal safety.

Still... I suggest you stack a lot of pillows at the bottom of your stairs. The baseball draft is just too unpredictable; the safest bet is usually a "field" bet. I'll predict that the Giants end up with four or five players that aren't on your list.

I'm tempering my expectations. Give me one serious bat at 10 or 22, and no more than one light hitting speedster in these first six picks, and I'll avoid the staircase or at least use the handrail.

This prediction doesn't have anything to do with the Giants, by the way. I would imagine that at least eight of the twelve picks next to ours (9, 11, 21, 23, 28, 30, 31, 33, 42, 44, 50, 52) are off your board as well.

Stay safe, Doc!

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jun 7, 2007 10:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Very True....
but it's still fun to try picking the players and then see how my picks turn out compared with what we actually got.  

BTW.  If we end up with something along the lines of Bumgarner/Poreda/Carpenter, I predict the draft will be a bust and this team will continue wandering in the wilderness for 40 more years.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Very True....
The canary in the coalmine for me is Borbon. We take him #10 and I'm throwing myself down Doc's stairs.

by Roger on Jun 7, 2007 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Very True....
Borbon at 10? Doc might have to charge admission to his staircase. :)
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jun 7, 2007 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I was wrong! Three out of six picks were from Doc's list. And only three of the twelve picks immediately before and after our picks were on the list.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jun 7, 2007 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
THUMP THUMP THUMP THUMP THUMP
THERE GOES DOC.
ARE YOU OK DOC?

by rellubcat on Jun 7, 2007 12:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
No, I'm not OK.  I can just feel the next pick......Aaron Poreda, then Carpenter at #29 and my worst fears are confirmed.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I Feel Better
I think Alderson was on my board, right?  I can live with that.  But, I still want some hitters!!!

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Poreda's Off the Board!!
I feel even better!  Now I just have to sweat out Chris Carpenter. Still hoping for a hitter, although the best ones are gone.  Would be happy with a couple more HS pitchers--Griffith and/or Blair.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Alright, DrB, why should we be disappointed the Giants took Madison Bumgarner? Young lefty power pitchers would seem to be a good thing at first glance, right?

by Sayhey on Jun 7, 2007 2:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bumgarner
A couple of reasons:
  1. Is he really a better prospect than one of several potential impact hitters that were available?  I know you take the BPA over need in the baseball draft, but not only am I unconvinced that Bumgarner is the BPA, I'm quite confident he was not.  Mills, Dominguez, Heyward, those are all hitters with upside.  I just don't see that any of them have a lower ceiling than Bumgarner nor are less likely to reach it.  
  2.  I know lefty power pitchers come at a premium, but I'm not thrilled with Bumgarner. He reportedly has no real secondary pitch.  The most disturbing thing is, he has tried to develop secondary pitches and has failed, so far.  His arm slot is so low, it is almost sidearm.  I believe that will make it more difficult for him than most to develop secondary pitches.
I hope he proves me wrong and turns out to be the next Randy Johnson.  I'm afraid it's more likely that we just whiffed on what I hope will be our highest draft choice for a long time.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Bumgarner
Thanks, DrB, for the response. I'll hope your wrong, but we will have to wait and see.

by Sayhey on Jun 7, 2007 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
I have no reason to quarrel with your comparisons to the hitters, but from everything I've read, this is a really good prospect.  He's only 17, has a plus FB.  He's only been throwing breaking pitches for less than a year, so that is a good thing.  As I said on Lefty's site, I think he is J Sanchez now.  Add one plus pitch and he is a #4 SP, add one plus and one avg and he is a #3, 2 plus off speed and he is a #2.  Seems like there is a lot of upside, and little chance of busting.  

by allfrank on Jun 7, 2007 3:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Craig Whitaker
Couldn't you have said all the same things about Craig Whitaker in 2003?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Craig Whitaker
I know next to nothing about Whitaker, but I thought his problems were continuous injury history, not failure to develop pitches.

by allfrank on Jun 7, 2007 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
DrB, it seems pretty clear to me that the Giants have a philosophy of pitching + strongth (that's a striong player who works out) up the middle - C, middle IF, CF, and RF in their case.  Even at that, they don't seem to go for stars (top 30 picks) for those positions.  I don't know where EME was drafted, but my recollection is that Schierholtz was fairly far down.  
  Assuming for the sake of discussion, they have a good and rational plan, why almost completely omit the corners from serious consideration?  I understand it is only, in the scheme of things, 4 slots on the roster.  Too expensive to develop corner players?  Too much injury risk?.  What I am saying is that I am sure Sabean wants to keep his job and believes in this philosophy, but why a near total eschewment of the corner players in the top rounds?

by allfrank on Jun 7, 2007 5:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: DrB's Giants Draft Board
Honestly? I'm starting to think that they just don't know what makes a good hitter. Or have a different opinion that's not very effective in practice.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Jun 7, 2007 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Corners
It's not just the draft. When was the last time we acquired a true impact corner anything by the draft, free agency or trade?  Power in RF and 1B has been a glaring need for how long now?  Sabean has totally failed to come close to adequately addressing these needs.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 7, 2007 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Corners
Well, we've traded for Ellis Burks, signed Moises Alou, acquired Andres Galaragga twice, and resigned Barry Bonds twice, so we stumble upon some creaky old power at the corners every once in awhile.

Now, a power hitting corner with fully functioning knees? I honestly can't remember the last one.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jun 7, 2007 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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