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Lincecum/Hamels Analyses

I've done several Pitcher "analyses" in the last couple of years, most about Johan Santana or Francisco Liriano. But when I saw the Lincecum/Hamels matchup, I was so excited that I just had to chart pitches and see what it showed. If you're interested in the results, I would love to discuss it. Check it out here (www.SethSpeaks.net). Thanks!

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses

    Fastball - 86 (86.0%)

    Curveball - 12 (12.0%)

    Change Up - 2 (2.0%)

That says it all right there.  For a guy with an outstanding curve, that isn't a whole lot of usage.

by positiveuphemism on May 6, 2007 11:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
i think there is a ton to be excited about with the enchanter.  i think for us to over-analyze his first start is a mistake.  let's remember that he was amped up on the first inning, so of course his breaking ball is going to look like he is pitching in coors field.  his fastball had a lot of velocity on it at first, and yes he did get a lot of swing thrus the first time around.  but once a major leaguer has seen your fastball and he knows it is coming, they will hit anyones fastball.  here are my pluses for last night:
  1.  he didn't get the loss.
  2.  he battled through a lot last night.  he gave up two, two-run homers and that was about it.
  3.  he got a lot of swing thrus, even the second time around.
  4.  he got some major league experience without getting shelled.
  5.  eventhough he had some control problems, which we all know having read his lines so far is going to be an issue (but he is what, like 12 years old) so we kind of expected that. but he wasn't grooving his fastball down the middle.  
  6.  he should get 1 of 2 more starts before he goes back down to work on his control.  
the bottom line is he did great last night.  he gave up a two run bomb in the first, then struck out the side.  he didn't look rattled on the mound when some things weren't going his way.  

and the last good thing is, it doesn't look like he is going to get razor burn for a while.  the only shaving cream he is going to see for a while are the shaving cream pies he is going to get in the face during his tv interviews.

Paging Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard.

by Cynema the Band on May 7, 2007 7:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
He's actually 23, older than Matt Cain.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on May 7, 2007 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
I don't think he turns 23 until June 15th.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on May 7, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Teeth
He seriously needs to get something done about the teeth.  That was painful to look at.  Don't they have things like Invisaline that he can take out during games to fix that?

by DrBGiantsfan on May 7, 2007 7:56 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
Thanks, Seth.  Great stuff.

Clearly, Lincecum was over amped.  His control was never sharp, his fastball flattened out early, due to over throwing, and his curveball didn't have much break, for the same reason. He managed his game poorly, losing velocity as he went on.  Also, he ran into some bad luck with a tight strike zone.

We'll give him a mulligan.  If he corrects the flaws listed above, he could still dominate.

Meanwhile, I'm impressed that Hamels missed the 2004 season due to bar fight!  How old school!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on May 7, 2007 9:47 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
We're all just guessing here, but, inasmuch as his curve wasn't working in the first, and he was getting squeezed by the umps, and it was his 1st MLB game, it wouldn't surprise me if Molina or Righetti or Bochy decided to use the curve only as a change of pace.  I think it is important to remember that Molina has had virtually no opportunity to catch him, talk to him, etc

by allfrank on May 7, 2007 12:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
You really shouldn't judge a starter by his debut, positive or negative. I am sure that Lincecum was excited and a LOT nervous. it showed. I  think that you give him another start and hope that he takes a big step forward. And then in his third step, he takes another step forward. By that time, it's a little more fair to start seeing where he is really at. He's clearly going to be a star. He showed some really good stuff. I think if he can sit at 94-95 with his fastball that he'll be able to maintain that for 5-6 innings, rather than really kind of losing velocity over the game.

by SethSpeaks on May 7, 2007 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
This is a good question, and also a tough answer.

Lincecum has a huge upside, but with his violent and effort-filled delivery, can he last 7-8 innings effectively? Is his future in the closer role? I'm not saying I know the answer to that question, just something to think about.

Also, Hamels has such a fluid, effortless delivery and three plus pitches. He is left handed and looks like he could be around for a long time.

You really have two polar opposites at work here. If Lincecum shows better control (maybe the power guy is what you want). Great question!

by SethSpeaks on May 7, 2007 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
Questioning Lincecum's delivery... you're really asking for it around here, aren't you?

Actually, I do believe that there is a lot of stress-deferment to his delivery so his body takes a lot more pressure than his arm, but others here can explain it a lot better than I can.

Even so, it remains to be seen which point of view is right regarding this kid. Time will tell.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on May 7, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
Or, not "a lot more pressure than his arm," but "a lot of pressure off his arm."
Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on May 7, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
Well, I think it was nerves, but he did seem gassed after 4 innings.  We'll see how well he makes it into late innings, as he progresses.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on May 7, 2007 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
i think the idea that he was overthrowing in the first couple innings justifies the drop in velocity. I don't remember reading any article describing a marked decrease in velocity over the course of his outings. Actually, I recall reading that he was able to maintain velocity over the course of a start. If anything, because it happened in his first big league start i think it is less cause for concern than all the people who are jumping to conclusions are making it out to be.
I wish John Miller would just commentate my life.

by fanofvanlandingham on May 7, 2007 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
I absolutely agree. I think he was a little excited for his big league debut. I know I would be. I was trying to make that point. He'll be fine!

by SethSpeaks on May 7, 2007 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
Why are we questioning Tim's ability to pitch seven or eight innings?  He has thrown as many as 165 pitches in a game, and Brian Sabean has gone on record by saying Tim is comfortable throwing 135 to 140. If 135 to 140 pitches won't get the Giants seven to eight innings, he probably isn't pitching well enough to warrant that many innings anyway.

Personally, I saw two different game pitched by Tim within his debut game.

For the first 11 batters,  Tim was getting by on his fastball alone. (He threw only three curves for strikes, and the first of those three he would have been better off throwing it for a ball.)  But to those first 11 batters, Tim pitched OK (two hits, one walk, five strikeouts) because he had his control (30 strikes out of 46 pitches), even if he didn't have his secondary pitches going.

But to the last dozen batters, Tim not only didn't have his curve or change, he didn't have his control (only 23 strikes on 54 pitches).

So based on Sunday's game, it appears Tim may be able to get by without his secondary pitches, but only if he has control.  If he has control and at least one of his two secondary pitches (He usually has both.), I believe he can be dominant.

Friday night should be interesting.

by sharksrog on May 8, 2007 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Trade Lincecum for Hamels?
I'd be too scared Hamels will break.  He's been injury-prone (see above for the bar fight mention).

by wedge on May 7, 2007 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
All pitchers exert huge amounts of power from their bodies.  Lincecum just does it more so and uses even more parts of his body.  He also has a beautiful stride that adds tons of twist to him.
Lincecum, Lincecum 12 stories tall, made of radiation.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on May 7, 2007 2:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Lincecum/Hamels Analyses
What are we really talking about here?
I'll take the freight train, Bengie Molina.

by Brother Bummer on May 8, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

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