In another blog, a poster mentioned that he was hoping Lincecum doesn't win the ROTY because "most pitchers who win ROTY end up flaming out and having mediocre and/or abbreviated careers."

That didn't sound right to me, so I decided to do some research on all of the ROTY pitchers to see how many of them actually do flame-out.  Here's what I came up with:

2006 Justin Verlander - Great so far, but too early to tell because he won last year.

2005 Huston Street - Still pitching well, although he's had a few injuries.

2003 Dontrelle Willis - He's been solid, although not always dominant.

2002 Jason Jennings - He's been average so far, but pitched his entire career up 'till now in Coors, so he could still be a great pitcher.

2000 Kazuhiro Sasaki - He pitched just fine during his brief career, and left the game not because of injury, but to be with his family.  I wouldn't say he flamed out, but he did have an abbreviated career.

1999 Scott Williamson - Career ERA of 3.28, although he didn't develop into the dominant closer that he was expected to.

1998 Kerry Wood - Was expected to be the next Bob Gibson.  He's pitched reasonably well (3.68 career ERA), but with his constant injuries he most certainly hasn't lived up to the hype.

1995 Hideo Nomo - Maybe Nomo wasn't Randy Johnson, but I wouldn't call him a "flame out."  You could pretty much pencil him in for 200+ strikeout every year.

1989 Gregg Olson - He was a dominant closer for 5 years in a row, and ended his career with over 200 saves.  Not a Hall of Famer, but a very solid pitcher.

1986 Todd Worrell - Career ERA of 3.09 to go with 256 career saves.

1984 Dwight Gooden - The Doc won a Cy Young in 1985 with one of the most amazing seasons by a pitcher in recent memory - 24 wins against 4 losses.  16 complete games (8 of them shutouts), 276 innings pitched, 268 strikeouts, and a 1.53 ERA.  That's just unreal.  While  he never posted numbers that amazing again, Gooden had a strong career, finished just 6 wins shy of 200, and posting a career ERA of 3.51.

1981 Dave Righetti - Rags spent a couple years as a solid starter, then the majority of his career as a dominant reliever.  Not a Hall of Famer, but definitely not a flame out.

1981 Fernando Valenzuela - Won the Cy Young AND the ROY award in '81, then went on to be an all star each of the next five seasons.  

1980 Steve Howe - Didn't amass many saves throughout his career (91), but was a solid relief pitcher throughout, and ended up with a 3.03 career ERA.

1979 Rick Sutcliffe - Not Nolan Ryan, but he did win a Cy Young award in 1984, and continued to be a reliable pitcher throughout his career.  Finished with 171 wins and a 4.08 ERA.

1976 Butch Metzger - After winning ROY (for winning 11 games out of the bullpen I assume), this relief pitcher went on to pitch two more seasons, one average, one horrible.  Definitely a flame-out.

1976 Pat Zachry - Tied with Butch Metzger for the ROY award in '76, and was another flameout (although not as bad as the fella he shared the award with).  Zachry won 14 games as a rookie, then went on to pitch 9 more seasons, and the most he ever won was 10 (in '77 and '78).  After that, he was mostly below average.  I'd say he's also a flame-out.

1976 Mark Fidrych - '76 proved to be a rough year to win the ROY for pitchers.  Fidrych was dominant, winning 19 games, pitching over 250 innings, and having an ERA of 2.34.  He started 14 games total in '77 and '78 combined, and while he pitched well when he did pitch, injuries were obviously a problem.  In '79 and '80, he pitched in a combined total of only 13 games, and was no longer anything resembling good.  That's it for his career.  Definitely a flame-out.

1975 John Montefusco - The Count had a solid 13 year career, posting a career ERA of 3.54, but only won a total of 90 games.  Not exactly HOF material.

1972 Jon Matlack - Three time allstar posted a career ERA of 3.18 and won 125 games, but ended up with 126 losses.  I'd say he didn't live up to his rookie year.

1970 Carl Morton - Strong rookie year with 18 wins, but never repeated in in the remainder of his 8 year career.  Ended up with a losing record (87-92), and never once made an all-star team.  Not what one would expect from the rookie of the year.

1968 Stan Bahnsen - Posted a 2.05 ERA his rookie year, and while he had a reasonably solid 16 year career in which he won 146 games (and also lost 149), he never came close to putting up that kind of ERA again.  He was a pitcher that won alot, and lost alot.  For example, in two straight years ('72, '73), he posted W/L records of: 21/16, then 18/21.  Maybe he didn't flame out, but, again, he's no Hall of Famer.

1967 Tom Seaver - Now we're talkin'!  311 career wins, 3640 strikeouts, and a career ERA of 2.86.  WOW.  Now THOSE are HOF numbers (Seaver was inducted in '92).

1963 Gary Peters - Essentially had a 10-year career, and was excellent for half of it, mediocre for the other half.  Finished with 124 wins and a 3.25 career ERA.  Strong numbers, but he's no Tom Seaver.

1961 Don Schwall - 15 game winner his rookie year, then never even won 10 games for the remainder of his brief, 7 year career.  Definitely a flame-out.

1957 Jack Sanford - Very reliable pitcher throughout his career and you could pretty much count on him for double digits in wins (he finished with 137).

1955 Herb Score - 16 wins, then 20 wins in the first two years of his career.  After that, he managed to win a combined total of 19 games in the final 6 years he played.  Classic flame-out.

1954 Bob Grim - 20 game winner his rookie year, then managed only one season in which he topped double-digits in wins (he went 12-8 with a 2.63 ERA coming out of the bullpen in 1957) for the rest of his
8 year career.

1952 Harry Byrd - I guess this guy won the award on the strength of his 15 complete games, because he wasn't all that dominant in his rookie year, going 15-15, giving up 244 hits in 228 innings, and posting a 3.31 ERA (in 1952).  Predictably, he never turned into a dominant pitcher (he lost 20 games his second season and ended up playing only 7 years total).

1952 Joe Black - won 15 games and had a 2.15 ERA coming out of the 'pen in his rookie year.  Went on to win a total of 15 games combined in the remaining 5 seasons he played, and his lowest ERA was 4.05.  Not exactly Willie Mays, who won the award in '51.

1949 Don Newcombe - Newcombe pitched only 10 years, but was a 4-time allstar, and won not only the Cy Young, but the NL MVP award in 1956 with his amazing 27 wins.  Newcombe finished his career with 149 wins against 90 losses.  Definitely no flame-out here.

So, in 57 years of ROY awards for each league (114 awards given out total), 31 pitchers have won, and out of all 31, we have just one Hall of Famer (Tom Seaver).  Sure, there are some other dominant pitchers in there (Doc Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela, Hideo Nomo, Todd Worrell, Don Newcombe), and while the majority have gone on to average or above average careers, I was pretty surprised by how many are pure flame-outs.  I counted 11, out of 31, so basically, if you win the Rookie of the Year as a pitcher, you've got about a 3% chance of having a HOF career, and a 36% chance that you'll just flame-out.

Obviously nothing is certain, but I must admit I was surprised by just how few of these pitchers have ended up having truly dominant careers.  Maybe we should root for someone else (other than Lincecum) to win the ROTY award this year, so as not to jinx the kid...