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Lincecum article

Hey guys -

Check out the article on Lincecum I just wrote on Bleacher Report.

What do you think about the pitch count concerns--overblown or worth worrying about?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Lincecum article
I think you're overblowing it. I don't completely buy into the "Lincecum has a rubber arm" thing, but that one start is the only time the entire year he's been allowed to go over 100 pitches. If it's July and he's averaging 120 pitches a start and his velocity has dropped, maybe it'll be time to start worrying, but I think the Giants know the right way to handle him.

The workload thing (in college) was always an issue for Tim and he's shown no ill effects from it yet. That's not to say they could never happen - he's a young pitcher and every young pitcher, no matter how perfect his mechanics or how rubber his arm, is an injury risk.

Liriano was an elevated injury risk long before he was allowed to throw those numbers of pitches last season... he was barely ever able to make it through a full season when he was pitching in the Giants system. Lincecum doesn't have that same history, so I don't really think it's a good comparison. Also, I think his big strikeout pitch is a slider (as opposed to Tim's curveball), which is supposed to be a lot tougher on the arm than other pitches.

So, in conclusion, I think you're overblowing Tim's injury risk a little. Obviously, it's there and it wouldn't hurt to hold him to between 100 and 110 pitches a start, if possible, but I don't really think he's any higher an injury risk than, say, Matt Cain or any other young pitcher out there right now.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on May 18, 2007 11:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Fair point, but if its July and he's averaging 120 pitches a start and his velocity has dropped, I think we'll be well past the point of worrying.

This is the Franchise we're talking about, after all...

Also, I guess I have selective memory and forgot about Liriano's injury history--trying to wipe that trade from my memory probably had a residual, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind effect.

by bleacherman on May 18, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Well stated, Jponry. I think both Tim and Matt Cain have a lower than average injury risk.

by sharksrog on May 18, 2007 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Nice article. My comment would be that pitch counts for one game shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. While I certainly wouldn't want Timmy to throw 120 pitches every start, I am not at all concerned that he went over 100 in his second start of the season. Wood and Prior got hurt partially because Baker would consistently put them out there for 120, 130 pitches. I don't think Bochy will do that to the Enchanter.
My VORP is higher than Merkin's VORP.

by Poe on May 18, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Thanks.  I'll agree, I did sound the alarm pretty damn early.  But I think given the hype around Tim, its important the Giants be extra careful with him.  I just don't like seeing a pitch count exceeded that quickly into his MLB career, and I don't think the team should depend on him for so much so soon.  

by bleacherman on May 18, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Liriano is a bad example because from what I remember he was considered tradable because of injury concerns. Didn't he have surgery before the Giants dealt him for The Jerk? Tim hasn't had surgery yet and seems to have had minimal arm problems to this point.
I live life like every week is shark week. Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on May 18, 2007 11:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Nah.  I don't think the pitch count should be much of a worry.  The kid threw ridiculous amounts of innings already in his life.  If he's ever had signs of slowdowns, I'm sure someone would have caught it by now.

It seems that this is the time of the year that Bochy begins taking the training wheels off of his starters.  He let Lowry get to 125 (I think?) the other night.  As long as they're still effective, he'll probably leave them in there.

Liriano didn't flame out because of pitch counts.  It was probably more attributed to his mechanics than anything.  If I'm not mistaken, he also had an injury history before the Giants parted ways with him.  So you can't really compare the two right now.

I don't think theres much need to worry about Lincecum.  If it gets too much for him, I'm sure Bochy will figure it out before it gets too far.

by sfgfan on May 18, 2007 11:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
What I question is, what is what has changed so that we are worried about every single young pitcher who throws over 100 pitches, when 35 years ago pitchers like Spahn and Marichal could duel it out for 16 innnings and still make their next start 3 or 4 days later? What did they do back then that they arent doing today? Is it just because there is so much money invested in these guys that teams cant afford for them to get injured under any circumstance? Are pitching coaches teaching bad mechanics now? Is modern day nutrition allowing these guys to throw extra hard in an unnatural and unhealthy way? Timmy's mechanics seem to be pure genius from his dad, and his dad seems to be a pitching guru from the old school days. Why cant he be a throwback to those old glory days when pitchers could get 40+ starts and win 30 games a season?

by joebirdie3 on May 18, 2007 11:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
I would guess it has more to do with hitting. Run scoring has gone up over the last 30 years, and this also means more runners on base. So, not only does it take more pitches to get through a complete game since more runners tend to be on base, pitchers are also throwing in more stressful situations. All this combines to increase fatigue and injury risk. Lineups also lack the crappy shortstops and 2nd basemen who were only in for their defense which means there isn't part of the lineup pitchers can cruise through with minimal effort.
My VORP is higher than Merkin's VORP.

by Poe on May 18, 2007 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Hey!

We take offense to that!

Love,

Manny Trillo, Johnnie LeMaster and Duane Kuiper

Ernest Riles: Am I not turtley enough for your turtle club?

by dangjackson on May 18, 2007 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Duane was a slugger. He his one whole homerun in his career.
My VORP is higher than Merkin's VORP.

by Poe on May 18, 2007 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LeMaster
At least LeMaster had twenty-two HRs in his career!
Keeping a close eye on the Giants AAA players

by Andy In Fresno on May 18, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Agree, hitting plays a factor.  Still, its almost like there was something in the water back then that let pitchers go so much longer without wearing down.  If Timmy is a throwback to that, I'm all for it.  

by bleacherman on May 18, 2007 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Hitters are better today than they used to be, for one thing.  Pitchers don't get many chances to ease up while they go through the lineup.

The money is surely a concern; pitchers are pretty fragile to start with, and as they get more expensive, the more precautions managers will be encouraged to take to protect the investment.

Related to that, there's more competition for talent than there used to be, so it may be harder to find top-flight pitchers.  Populations are greater today, and there's a lot more international scouting than there used to be; but there's pretty good money in other professional sports (and even in non-sports fields), and that undoubtedly sucks up some of the talent.

The game has become much more about power pitching and power hitting; it's possible that the kind of pitching guys do today is harder on their arms.

Sports medicine has improved tremendously, and we know more about how pitchers get injured.  If it happens to be the case that the chance of serious injury, or even just ineffectiveness down the road, is greater for guys who throw 120+ pitches, it's silly to keep asking them to do that.  It was less silly when nobody really knew better.

Baseball managers are pretty risk-averse, as a group.  Now that pretty much everyone has adopted the starter-reliever-setup guy-closer model, it would take a bold man to send his starter out for eight or nine innings regularly.  IIRC, the Royals tried that a few seasons ago and it worked OK for the first half of the season, and then their starters totally fell apart in the second half.

by Mel Ott on May 18, 2007 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Without looking it up, I think one would need to go back nearly a century to see pitchers making over 40 starts.

For instance, Juan Marichal NEVER made over 40 starts, and he made as many as 40 only once -- in 1963.

I do believe that like the old-time pitchers, Tim could pitch relief on his day to throw between starts.

I also believe that should the Giants mistakenly decide to make him a closer, he could pitch almost every day as long as they limted him to only one inning.

by sharksrog on May 18, 2007 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Somebody in the bleacher report comments mentioned Oswalt commenting on Lincecum and Liriano's mechanics. I hadn't see that story before, so I thought I'd drop a link for anyone who's interested...
Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.16 ERA

by EliminateMe on May 18, 2007 12:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
I'd be worried, but Bochy has a pretty good reputation for keeping his young guys healthy. I think a 100 pitch limit for the duration of the season seems like something we can rely on - that one start notwithstanding. It's also worth noting that at 23 Tim is leaving the so-called "injury nexus" Will Carroll has done some research on - now,  while he's certainly piled up a ton of pitches while still in that nexus in college those are a sunk cost and all we can do is monitor his workload closely now that we have him and hope that he really is as rubber-armed as he seems. Letting him throw 100+ pitches regularly though would be just asking for trouble.

Cain is the arm I'm worried about, Flippy abused him pretty badly last year and he looked fatigued in his last few starts as a result. So far Bochy has let him throw 110 or more pitches in three starts - not a trend I like with a 22-year-old. Hopefully all will be well, but Cain is the guy I hold my breath on, not Lincecum.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on May 18, 2007 12:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Lincecum's either a freak of nature or he isn't. I'd make sure he never gets over 120, and that he gets pulled whenever he starts looking even a little bit tired, but I think his continued health is pretty much out of the team's control.

Cain is much more likely to get hurt than Lincecum, I think.

by Evan on May 18, 2007 12:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Very nice article.

I see why the comparison to Liriano is made, except Liriano was always a health bust.  And if you watch the way he throws, it's a high 3/4 angle which can cause a LOT of strain on the shoulder.

Lincecum throws directly over the top, and because his hips follow through with his arm as one, if there is any damage, it's minimal.  He's only 22, so yeah, he could have serious arm issues even by the time he's 25.  But let's not worry about that just yet.

I am the thinking man's thinking man.

by Anticon23 on May 18, 2007 1:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
I was thinking about Lincecum's velocity - you hear about it in the minors more but how many players in the majors legitimately throw in the high 90s? Most of Tim's fastballs are 95+ and he tops out around 98 - the only guy off-hand who throws consistently that hard or harder is Justin Verlander. Relievers throw harder but starters are generally considered flamethrowers if they sit at 94.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on May 18, 2007 1:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
To clarify, I am talking specifically about starters.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on May 18, 2007 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
King Felix
I live life like every week is shark week. Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on May 18, 2007 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
Smoltz threw heat in the high 90's earlier in his career.

by bleacherman on May 18, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
What do Smoltz, Felix, Verlander, and Lincecum have in common? They are all badasses.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on May 18, 2007 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
i read your article this morning...and you have a few facts wrong

first...liriano had prior arm probs, and his delivery exacerbated them...he wasnt overpitched

watch lincecum's delivery....most of the power comes from his body....his arm works as a slingshot...putting less pressure on the arm

so nothing to see here folks...move along

by bacci40 on May 18, 2007 6:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum article
I like that slingshot analogy.  That was what came to my mind too.  His dad compares it to a fiberglass vault pole.

The only bad thing about having seen Tim's motion is that it makes the others seem less than perfect.  I mean, I could watch that flowing motion all day long -- from any angle.

by sharksrog on May 18, 2007 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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